This year’s Best Actress race has so far been mostly dominated by performances already seen at Cannes and Sundance. At the top of that list would be Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara for Carol, Bel Polowy for Diary of a Teenage Girl, Emily Blunt for Sicario, along with Charlize Theron for Mad Max: Fury Road and Marion Cotillard for Macbeth. The entire race could be down to just these names and it would be impressive already. Except we know Oscar season doesn’t work like that. The consensus doesn’t work like that. It involves so many conflicting factors, not the least of which is which contender gets the most publicity from the early acting competitions like the Gothams or the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild awards. You could be riding high with buzz and publicity only to be derailed by a mobilized faction of film critics who complain about your inclusion, as happened last year with Jennifer Aniston, who seemed to be the first person ever punished for producing her own award-worthy performance; no one was ever going to fault Matthew McConaughey for making Dallas Buyers Club happen but Aniston, wow, she got the full treatment. Marion Cotillard, the critics wailed, was the preferred choice. They rallied behind her and thus, she got the nod in the end. And so it goes for women — not only do you have to worry about getting any challenging acting role but then you have to contend with critics who launch whole movements against your backstory. THAT was not a fun thing to watch.
At any rate, the same thing could happen this year, god knows, where the critics are concerned. They say they don’t care about awards but then they reveal themselves to care very very much. They care enough to subvert and manipulate the process whenever possible — Gravity, not 12 Years a Slave. Cotillard not Aniston. Good times.
Many prominent performances are on the horizon that could shake up the Best Actress race as it stands right now. Among those would be Emily Blunt in Sicario (Sept. 18), Elle Fanning in About Ray (Sept. 18), Ellen Page in Freeheld (Oct. 3), Mia Wasikowska in Crimson Peak (Oct. 16), Brie Larson in Room (Oct. 16), Carey Mulligan in Suffragette (Oct. 23), Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back (Oct. 16), Sandra Bullock in Our Brand is Crisis (Oct. 30). There is also Angelina Jolie in By the Sea (which she wrote and directed) (Nov. 13), Nicole Kidman in The Secret in Their Eyes (Nov. 20), Natalie Portman in Jane Got a Gun (Dec. 31).
The two sight-unseen frontrunners are expected to be Jennifer Lawrence in Joy versus Carey Mulligan in Suffragette. In the Best Actress race, popularity (unless you’re Jennifer Aniston) counts for a lot. Thus, pundits will have their eyes on the bigger names, like Bullock in Our Brand is Crisis, like Brie Larson in Room. It can become difficult to jam through certain names once the five biggest are in position. It is impossible at this time to know who they’ll be, but Lawrence and Mulligan (nominated back to back in and 2009 and 2010 for An Education and Winter’s Bone) really do appear to be the names at the moment with the most heat. Since Lawrence already has an Oscar, that puts Mulligan very near the top of the list as the de facto frontrunner to win, even before anyone has seen the film. This, because she’s never won before and she’s probably got the most prestige going in, in terms of who she is playing and what the role means overall: women getting the right to vote. That alone makes her stand out from many of the other roles women are playing this year. Her movie and her role will stand for something important, especially amid the heated election cycle that looks to be on the brink of electing our first woman to the US presidency.
Emily Blunt is cast as an idealistic law enforcement agent on the trail of a leader of a drug cartel. The part was originally written for a man but the director, Denis Villeneuve, insisted on it being cast female. Fanning will play a transgender male dealing with body issues and societal norms. Wasikowska will be launched into the horror fantasy world of Guillermo Del Toro in Crimson Peak, “When her heart is stolen by a seductive stranger, a young woman is swept away to a house atop a mountain of blood-red clay: a place filled with secrets that will haunt her forever. Between desire and darkness, between mystery and madness, lies the truth behind Crimson Peak.”
Sandra Bullock (and Jennifer Lawrence and Lily Tomlin) will be among the few comedy entries, thus they will do extremely well finding traction at the Golden Globes, no doubt, since the HFPA has a separate category for that. Bullock plays a political operative “Calamity” Jane Bodine, who comes out of retirement to help navigate an election.
It’s hard to tell at this stage how Best Actress is going to go. But if someone asked me how I think it MIGHT go, I see things shaping up something like this:
Near locks:
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Elle Fanning, About Ray
Bel Polowy, Diary of a Teenage Girl
Mia Wasikowska in Crimson Peak
Does this list mean anything? Well, it means that women of color look to be, at least for right now, mostly shut out of the race once again. There are no leading black females, or even Asian or Hispanic females in what I see here. It is so difficult for any actress (except Meryl Streep and Jennifer Lawrence) to get cast in anything of value. They hold on to what they have. They try, in every way that’s available to them, to get work, to get noticed, to have some power in an industry that gives them none.
We will check back in the Best Actress race once film festival season starts up again at the end of this month.
My favorite female performance this year (so far) is Carey Mulligan in “Far From The Madding Crowd”. She was wonderful in that role. A very subtle, understated and great performance from this young actress.
Nina Hoss for PHOENIX
brangelunatic lola you again, you have determined to trash Jen Aniston everywhere you go and I remember the meltdown of loons when she got into the race. she earned respect from her doubters and I love that
those including Angelina jolie are laughing stocks to me already the trailer for that awful movie was comedy gold itself, cant wait for the critics to pawn all over it , it gonna be worse than unchosen I mean unbroken and her disgraceful 2012 leggate
Why still so pressed over Jennifer Aniston. She was NEVER going to be nominated. The film was unwatchable, Aniston was barely bearable, not impressive at all. She was Rachel has the sads and is a royal beoyotch. Adriana Barraza, was THE stand out in that fallen Cake.
As far as the nominees – I’m going out on a limb and saying Jennifer Lawrence isn’t getting an nomination. The trailer for Joy looks awful, but of course that doesn’t always mean anything. Would love to see Lily Tomlin in the mix and AMPAS loves nothing better than an old-timer getting a first nom. Can’t really see Charlize Theron getting in for Mad Max: Fury Road either. There’s just too many movies that haven’t even been seen and people are speculating on just names alone – which is why I think I’d go with Rooney Mara over Cate Blanchett. Saoirse Ronan seems like a safe bet though. Could be an interesting year with more than just 6 or 7 actresses in the mix like last year. That was incredibly boring.
My predictions would be:
1. Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
2. Angelina Jolie, By Thе Sea
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Mia Wasikowska, Crimson Peak
5. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
You could be riding high with buzz and publicity only to be derailed by a mobilized faction of film critics who complain about your inclusion, as happened last year with Jennifer Aniston, who seemed to be the first person ever punished for producing her own award-worthy performance; no one was ever going to fault Matthew McConaughey for making Dallas Buyers Club happen but Aniston, wow, she got the full treatment. Marion Cotillard, the critics wailed, was the preferred choice. They rallied behind her and thus, she got the nod in the end.
I find this statement rather curious since Variety’s Guy Lodge was on Hitfix and Twitter bragging that he’d helped Aniston get the Golden Globe nomination by getting some of the HFPA members to vote for her when they otherwise weren’t inclined to. There was a conspiracy underfoot amongst critics – but it was the exact opposite of what you’re saying. It was all about “give poor Jennifer Aniston” a nomination for something because she didn’t completely suck for once – even though most critics agreed the movie just didn’t stand up and was bad.
I find this statement rather curious since Variety’s Guy Lodge was on Hitfix and Twitter bragging that he’d helped Aniston get the Golden Globe nomination by getting some of the HFPA members …There was a conspiracy underfoot amongst critics.”
Put Guy Lodge and every single one of the HFPA members together in one room and you will have a room with ONE critic in it.
If you want to talk about “most critics,” as your comment seems to argue, then look at the actual awards handed out by actual critics to see whether most critics favored Aniston or Cotillard.
You seem to see this yourself halfway through your own comment when you switch direction and stop trying to depict Guy Lodge as the leader of a conspiracy of critics (like, what OTHER critics beside Guy Lodge?) and you end up by saying that most critics did not think much of Aniston.
Your last 12 words are exactly what Sasha is saying, so I find it curious that you find Sasha’s opinion curious. You agree with her. Guy Lodge and HFPA do not represent “most critics” — they only represent ONE critic.
Such a great year for Best Actress.. Exciting! 🙂
My predictions at the moment:
1. Cate Blanchett – For either Carol or Truth (Most likely for Carol)
2. Carey Mulligan – Too dramatic
3. Jennifer Lawrence (Because she’s the new Meryl Streep, as in, she’ll always get first consideration to be nominated no matter what she does and this performance actually looks good)
note: I will never get over the fact she won the Oscar over Riva! or Streep being nominated for Into the Woods..really??
4. Emily Blunt (looks too good to be ignored)
5. Lily Tomlin (Veteran, great reviews)
Dark horses: Saoirse Ronan/Ellen Page or Julianne Moore
And am I the only one not impressed with “Joy”? I just think DOR is a hack. I mean, it wouldn’t be so bad if the Academy didn’t just love everything he put out, but I think he makes decent to good films, that are in no way Oscar worthy….in the way that I think of Oscar-worthiness, which is a movie that makes you hyperventilate, cry, scream, laugh, etc. I just don’t get excited or blown away when I see his movies. The only one I’ve loved is “The Fighter”.
Anyway…..I don’t really like JLaw in his movies. She comes off as…”bratty”. IDK. I don’t think she’s going to her full potential with him.
But I am not interested in seeing “Joy”, whatsoever.
I am soooo sick and tired of people going on and on about “Cake” as though it was this tour de force performance….it was not. It was a movie in which Jennifer didn’t suck as badly in. And guess what? Hollywood/producers/directors MUST agree with me, because eight months later….the only person who’s hired her is that godawful Gary Marshall for another one of his crappy movies–“Mother’s Day”. A role where she’s gonna spend about 20 minutes on camera, and playing second fiddle to Julia. Okay. But we’re supposed to believe she was so genius in this movie. That no one saw (it made 2 million on an 8 million budget). Okay.
As for Best Actress–my hopes:
Marion Cotillard–Macbeth. I think that she might be slid into supporting, but whatever.
Mia Wasikowska–Crimson Peak. I’m not a huge fan of horror/gothic, but I love this.
Carey Mulligan–Although, based on the trailer, I’m worried that this movie will be too “preachy”. The trailer was just awful, especially with that pop song halfway.
Angelina Jolie–By the Sea…..I just recently watched “Changeling” for the first time, and I was blown away.
Emily Blunt–Sicaro…she just looks fantastic, as always. And in a “non traditional” role.
Please no Jennifer Lawrence this year please..I just cant ..I know she is good but please lets let other actresses have their time.No Meryl as well its just getting rididulous they are not the only actresses in hollywood.This year should be
1 Saoires
2 Carey
3.Cate
4.Brie
5.Lily
My predictions:
1. Cate Blanchett, Carol
2. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
3. Angelina Jolie, By The Sea
4. Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
My predictions are:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Julianne Moore, Freeheld (alternate: Lily Tomlin, Grandma)
Just speaking the names aloud: Ronan, Mara, Blanchett, Cotillard, Blunt, Theron, Wasikowska, Larson, Mulligan, Lawrence, Vikander – holy shit! We may have to find a space in our hearts and minds to contemplate that only 3 of them could fill the 5 slots with the remaining 2 taken up but who knows else (worthy or not). So many twists and turns in the race, and with all those names we are guaranteed to be disappointed. So let’s jut make sure we keep watching these performances and talking about these women now, through the whole Oscar fiasco, and long after it is all over. I’m buzzing right now!
Sasha – great write up.
I couldn’t agree more with the “it is so difficult for any actress (except Meryl Streep and Jennifer Lawrence) to get cast in anything of value. They hold on to what they have. They try, in every way that’s available to them, to get work, to get noticed, to have some power in an industry that gives them none.” As an actress, it is very hard. As a caucasian actress, even harder.
Your list reminds me once again of all the films I have to see when I get back from Asia (glad I’m not the SAG Nom Com this year).
Re: Jennifer Aniston. I don’t buy into this conspiracy stuff. I remember reading countless articles that Aniston said she had to do “everything ” to get in for the lead in “Cake”. Aniston has a perception issue, in my opinion. Is she being perceived as a dramatic actress to get the roles? She really didn’t take a journey with the role – it was the same thing throughout. I didn’t expect her to get an Oscar nod. What I hope this year is that Meryl Streep doesn’t get nominated, just on reputation, and leave a deserving veteran or new actress out, like Shailene Woodley last year, for example. That’s a flaw in the system.
Not to beat a dead horse….
Just imagine if Stonewall had actresses of color portraying women of color. How cool would it be to have a couple of names to toss around in these buzz articles.
okay Ryan someone asked for a post about a film and I directed him to posts about that film. I can’t wait to read what you have to say about the film because I absolutely LOVED it.
Glimmer, Gold Derby has posted twice now about Straight Outta Compton.
Tom O’Neill commented that it got praised at the Academy screening over the weekend and then Paul Sheehan noted a forum topic that checks out which of the categories it could be viable in. Great to see!
“Gold Derby has posted twice now about Straight Outta Compton.”
Gold Derby undermines its own credibility with clumsy admissions like this:
The only surprise about the way the Oscars treated Selma last year was the way they weirdly dissed its director, its star and its writer. If Selma’s BP nomination took Gold Derby by surprise then Gold Derby is part of the problem. But yes, I guess it’s refreshing to see them admit they got caught with their pants down. Or maybe their pants were pulled up way past their waist like the high-waisted pants of all the other people who wanted Selma to be about how LBJ never ever said “nigger.” (Well, anyway, he almost never usually did. Not every day. As far we can prove. We only know he said it on tape, but he wasn’t being taped 24/7 all his life.)
Gold Derby goes on to waffle incomprehensibly about Straight Outta Compton: “Rap culture may be a turn-off to Oscar voters,” blag blah blah, “however, let’s recall that rap tunes from both of those pix won Oscars for Best Song”
Translation: Oscar voters can’t handle anything about rap except for the music? Plunk.
How about not shit on movies about rap culture in the same article that asks: Are the Oscars ready for rap culture?
Gold Derby passes along second-hand stories about applause at a screening, and I guess that’s fascinating news to some people.
I’ll be seeing Straight Outta Compton this afternoon. When I write about it, the opinion you read here will not be second-hand rumors. I’ll see it with my own eyes.
oh, but there’s that other Gold Derby piece about Straight Outta Compton. Turns out it’s a multiple choice poll. Pick one:
A) “Straight Outta Compton will win Best Picture!”
D) Nope, Straight Outta Compton will get snubbed.
Wow. ok, well maybe the source cited of the piece can be more specific? Here’s what he says:
Funny, that’s exactly what my cat said. Taji says that about EVERY MOVIE. “Might get nothing; might get something.” [*cat shrug*] And Taji always nails it with that kind of CYA insight. Because it’s vague meaningless nonsense.
Glimmer, check back here tomorrow and I’ll save you the trouble of filling your head full of Gold Derby’s expert filler and click bait fluff.
More on Gold Derby: “a forum topic that checks out which of the categories it could be viable in.”
yes, stuff like this. Here’s the rationale for Best Cinematography:
Let me get this straight: The Oscar prediction here is: “Great but might get overlooked”? … whoa, I’m astonished this kind of praise isn’t on every FYC ad every year: “Hi. Consider this contender who might get overlooked. Thanks!” “(btw, sorry he’s so non-obvious 🙁 ”
How about Gold Derby’s analysis of Best Director?
“F. Gary Gray showed some confident directing skills and would be very deserving of a nomination.” — so now “some confident directing skills” are all it takes to deserve a Best Director nomination? Cool. 200 directors just got really excited. Don’t invest in that tux just yet, fellas. The thing that always interferes with those 200 “confident skills” nominations are 5 directors at the head of the line who are usually geniuses or can at least do a convincing simulation of genius.
Let me rephrase in simpler terms. Most Oscar predictions with any substance will take the entire field into consideration and try to factor in the other 20 directors whose work is truly masterful before they start speculating on all the directors who have “confidence” and “skills”.
Gold Derby sez:
Let’s boil this down, shall we? The “Acadmy” might be feeling guilty about not nominating the female director of a movie that scored 89 on metacritic… so to make amends for last year they’ll “seek to make up for Ava Duvernay” by nominating the male director of a movie that has a 72 on metacritic? Oversight fixed!
Yes. That sure sounds like the perfect plan to pacify all the people who think female directors never get a fair shake.
Yeesh, my cat walked out of the room when I explained this to him. He literally showed me his asshole on his way out the door.
(I’m almost done. One more thing.)
I should add: Maybe the work of the director and cinematographer and other Oscar hopefuls have a lot more going for them than “confidence” and “might get overlooked tho”. I truly hope so. I hope their work is superb and if it is I’ll try to think of some better ways to convey that besides saying they’re “great.”
Lastly. This nameless cinematographer whose work is so “non-obvious” on Straight Outta Compton? His name is Matthew Libatique. That non-obvious guy whose genuine genius has been on full display in every movie Darren Aronofsky ever directed. That non-obvious guy who won a dozen major awards for Black Swan and was nominated for dozens more.
We have a quriky thing we do here at Awards Daily where we actually name the actual names of Oscar contenders, so that way people with ballots and people who care about awards don’t have to wonder who’s who.
Have to agree with many of the comments regarding Jennifer Aniston. Do you really think Aniston deserved the nod over Cotillard? And everyone has their hate: just look on this thread as Corvo says “anyone but Blanchett for the win.” It’s already begun!
Cotillard was a zillion times better than Aniston in both of her movies. Totally deserved that nomination, and she should have won again, but I won’t complain about Moore win since she was very very good, she was even greater in Maps to the Stars and she should have won twice for Boogie Nights and Far from Heaven.
And yet if Aniston had taken Pike’s place, you would’ve been crying into your cornflakes!
The photography alone in COMPTON justifies the ticket’s 10 bucks!
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTOM 7/10 (B+). What a weekend !! And I just heard THE GIFT is pretty good. Should I?
It’be crazy and unlikely for her to campaign in supporting for CAROL, especially when you keep in mind the total critical approval + strong social media buzz surrounding the movie + Harvey Weinstein.
I’d say that it’d be wise for Cate to move to supporting for Carol. She’d stand a very good chance at winning there, much like Kate Winslet did in The Reader, and she’d thus open up the leading race to include her for Truth. Either way, what’s most unlikely of all, to me, is that she’d fail to be nominated even if she does run in leading for both roles. Kate Winslet pulled it off when she beat herself to the leading actress nod with The Reader. Queen Cate could easily pull the same thing off this year.
Is Cate Blanchett a cis?
@ Manuel, I know… was totally weirded out when I found out SPC were releasing TRUTH this year, further still by the fact that they’re not pitching it at any of the festivals. They must be really brutally confident in it and that’s supported by their long and competitive battle to acquire the distribution rights at Cannes. People who’ve seen TRUTH say Blanchett is not only the lead but absolutely wonderful as well… It’be crazy and unlikely for her to campaign in supporting for CAROL, especially when you keep in mind the total critical approval + strong social media buzz surrounding the movie + Harvey Weinstein. Add to that the concept of 2015 being America’s gay rights turnaround year and CAROL really transforms into the film to be. So I guess there has to be something really outstanding in TRUTH.
P.S. Where’s the trailer? They are releasing the movie in mid-October.
Hmmm when it comes to the Jennifer Aniston thing, she really pushed and helped out that the film was in the conversation resulting in nominations and more press. Yes she was in a bubble but Aniston was REWARDED not punished.
Marion Cotillard got the nomination, rightly so, because the performance was far better. Why Julianne Moore won, is a more interesting question when both Pike and Cotillard gave better performances
I’m more interested in what going to happen with Cate Blanchett. First she gave an iconic performance in Cinderella, was according to Cannes utterly amazing in Carol. Third is the buzz she has for Truth. What is going to happen with Blanchett? She may very well be canceling herself out if SPC and Weinstein are going to pit against herself
The only miracle nomination Im hoping for is Charlotte Rampling in 45 years
My predictions as of mid August:
Cate Blanchett – Carol/ Truth
Mia Wasikowska – Crimson Peak
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Lily Tomlin – Grandma
Carey Mulligan – Suffragette
I know the competition is fierce but one thing I’ve learned is NEVER count Streep out. She may end up in supporting category for Suffragette, who knows?
Oh, and REAL TALK: Shame on all of us for not stumping harder for the dynamite Nina Hoss in PHOENIX. By several miles the best performance of the year to date. Let’s step our game up, you guys!
Reviews be damned, I still think Meryl has a shot for Ricki. I’ll believe a Meryl snub when I see it.
i haven’t seen ‘compton’ why can’t it get a post here ??? we just had a post about it on a.d. tying in with a hank williams bio pic that hasn’t been seen. and could the script/acting of ‘compton’ really be worse than that of ‘avatar’. ??
come on guys ‘compton’ is a bio pic and lord or whomever knows you guys love that around here.i know that sometimes here at a.d the populist card gets thrown and ‘compton’ is blowing up the box office and wowing reviewers.
and you know right in in a.d. end these forums i’v read how if whatever film got a nom it would help build interest in the oscars/help the tv ratings. if things went to 10 noms this year maybe ‘compton’ could do that. live by your words/die by them. 🙂
because actually something like ‘compton’ would count as populist choice more even the newer ‘mad max’ or ‘inside out’ and lords knows the a.d nation won’t shut up wanting those to have a chance.and you know good films or not ‘max’ or ‘out’ would equal business as usual for the academy in the giving a slot to a film with not much chance of getting a best pic win.
give the slot to ‘compton’ and let’s see how many of the award nation goes on suicide watch. 😉
give the slot to ‘compton’ or make it a at least a slight part of the discussion and let’s see how many “normal” people(you know the ones you posters on the site supposedly want to reach so much. isn’t that part of the reason for everyone going crazy for every trad film ever ????) actually know that there is an award season. 😉
i mean seriously we’ve had posts about jurassic world on a.d partly because of it box office made it something impossible to ignore…so say hello to ‘compton’. sorry, sasha/ryan you’ve got to get to it… set yourself on fire, if needed and talk about ‘compton’. 😉
if not let antoinette/benutty do it. 😉
you know sasha, talking about this film might give the site and award season a bit of a shot in the arm.and maybe we’re half way there. 😉
i really wasn’t that interested in ‘compton’ but the mania has me a bit curious.ha ha…
i really don’t see how giving ‘compton’ some words would be any worse seeing stuff in posts/replies about 15 super hero movies,3000 usual bio pics suspects,or way can’t a razzle/dazzle effect film get a best pic nom or whatever i have to see/read 5000 times.and everyone thinks it fine/it’s ingrained.
maybe if this was a film about a country music legend or the rolling stones…well you know what i mean.
sasha/ryan don’t you love it when unexpected stories make there way into the discourse. 😉
even if you feel ‘compton’ isn’t deserving of a post you got to throw it some words….
and no, i’m not a rap nor a n.w.a. fan.
“being out of sync with a.d. nation means you’ll always be alone/never mind just accept it/ and be happily on your own.” 🙂
throwing away the “english” and hiding. 😉
I’m not feeling the love for Room. Benutty’s bad buzz seems to be on the money – the heat on that film has been low of late, and the trailer didn’t reveal much confidence on the studio’s part, nor excitement from online audiences. No doubt Alicia Vikander needs to be in the conversation, though. Her career continues to grow, and she’s had an excellent year so far. She’s angling hard for the nomination, and will no doubt kick things up a notch when The Danish Girl receives its prestigious, Birdman-esque festival berth, and into the ensuing awards season. The time’s very right for her.
I second everybody’s disillusionment with Sasha’s Aniston / Cotillard beef. The critics didn’t give Marion Cotillard some kind of boner boost – they rewarded a terrific performance (as Sasha will admit it was) which they had no good reason to expect would get the Oscar nomination, not after the Academy had failed to recognise Cotillard for her heavily buzzed-about perfs in Nine and Rust and Bone. They were never going to go for Cake, and it wasn’t because of Jennifer Aniston’s advocacy – it was Aniston’s actions that got her in the race at all, with her Globes, Critics Choice and SAG nominations. It was because the film wasn’t great, and her performance couldn’t redeem it to a level comparable to her competition, least of all Cotillard in Two Days, One Night. Jennifer Aniston wasn’t punished, she was rewarded. The studio was about ready to dump the film in the early months of this year, and she earned it a seriously higher profile and several significant award nominations.
As a passionate supporter of feminism and a committed feminist myself, I’ll always call out misogyny when I see it, without fail. But I saw no signs that anyone was punishing Jennifer Aniston last year, and none that they were specifically choosing Marion Cotillard over her. It was simply a case of preference, and justifiably so.
Also, I made some predictions a month ago, and predicted zero POC for any acting nominations this coming year, for the second consecutive set of nominations. Dreadful shame that this is how things currently appear, and I sure hope that the Academy can turn things around after last year’s shitshow.
Antoinette, I just saw Straight Outta Compton and LOVED it. It was great. Comparable to Beyond the Lights (which I thought was overhyped), but obviously better.
As for this thread, lol Brie Larson is not getting nominated. I can’t say it enough–Room is awful.
You know the worst part? If she mentioned that Aniston should have been nominated instead of Felicity Jones, I’d have understood. It would still be annoying, but it would make some sense.
My predictions:
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
2. Cate Blanchett, Carol
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
5. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
I think you forgot Alicia Vikander. She is definetly on the race. The sure bets are:
1. Carey Mulligan
2. Jennifer Lawrence
3. Cate Blanchett
The last two spots is going to be a battle between Alicia Vikander, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. Alicia has too much going on for her this year to her to miss a spot. We have to wait for Brie’s reviews, but i think she gets in too if they are good.
Furthermore, the actors branch inside the Academy are not critics. No major critics assoc. (maybe outside of the BFCA) would come near an Aniston performance in Cake. The industry went for Aniston (Globes, SAG). The critics had nothing to do with Aniston. They went for Cotillard and Moore for the most part; 2 of the years finest performances in very fine films. Year in and year out, the critics tend to show some sense, whereas you never know what you’re going to get within the industry/Academy.
I’m hoping Brie Larson gets nominated considering she got ripped off for Short Term 12
Does anyone know who’s handling the campaign for “45 Years”? It would bring tears to see Charlotte Rampling get a nomination or even a win even though I know the chance is really slim. Maybe the critics should help her out this time:)
Just recentley saw Two Days, One Night (now streaming on Netflix btw) and I don’t get what Sasha has against Marion Cotillard’s nomination. It was a better movie, she’s a better actress, and it was a better performance. I don’t get it.
Dusan Aleksandar and Phantom have the right idea. When you think of Oscars you think of Kate ‘The GREAT’ Winslet (Little Children, The Holiday). The Dressmaker will show the Oscar Voting Persons that competing pictures are a little underdressed!
– Watermelons
This is shaping to be a very strong year for Lead Actress performances–in fact, so far, my Best Actress list is stronger than my Best Actor list, which is refreshing. Sadly, it’s not a good year for diversity, but I’m hoping that changes somehow by the end of the year.
I want Brie Larson to have at least a nomination. She should’ve been up for Short Term 12 and Room looks like a chance for her to outdo herself.
Mulligan is probably in, Vikander is a safe bet given the year she’s having, and I’m predicting Larson because there’s no way I won’t.
Until I see Diary I’m not certain about Powley’s odds, but the film sounds great, so I think she could at least get a Globe nom.
I can only assume Jane Got a Gun will not come out until 2027. If it somehow comes out this year, I do not predict awards attention.
Okay, let’s try this for a final five:
– Cate Blanchett, Carol
– Brie Larson, Room
– Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
– Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
– Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
I’m sure Jennifer Lawrence is getting on over someone (probably Larson or Vikander), but it’ll be a cold day in Hell before I gladly predict a David O. Russell film for anything.
I don’t understand your beef against Cotillard, especially by pitting her against a comparative nobody like Jennifer Aniston.
“But yeah, sure, totally, it was all a conspiracy against Poor Jennifer Aniston.”
You should have seen the mess that happened last year when she got mad after Marion Cotillard started winning all the important critics awards! She said that Cotillard won “just because she’s younger and hotter than Julianne Moore and critics want to f*ck her”, it was hilarious! I doubt that she would have said anything had Rosamund Pike won those awards instead, since she is a well-known David Fincher fangirl. lol
“You could be riding high with buzz and publicity only to be derailed by a mobilized faction of film critics who complain about your inclusion, as happened last year with Jennifer Aniston, who seemed to be the first person ever punished for producing her own award-worthy performance; no one was ever going to fault Matthew McConaughey for making Dallas Buyers Club happen but Aniston, wow, she got the full treatment. Marion Cotillard, the critics wailed, was the preferred choice. They rallied behind her and thus, she got the nod in the end.”
1. Cotillard’s performance was far better
2. Cotillard’s movie was far better
3. Cotillard is, in a vacuum, five times the actor Jennifer Aniston is
4. McConaughey is, in a vacuum, four times the actor Jennifer Aniston is
But yeah, sure, totally, it was all a conspiracy against Poor Jennifer Aniston.
“This year’s Best Actress race has so far been mostly dominated by performances already seen at Cannes and Sundance.”
Isn’t it supposed to be the right thing?
And get over the Aniston thing. It’s getting kinda weird
A few hunch-based predictions / observations.
1. Julia Roberts will give her strongest, most raw performance to date and will be nominated in lead. Kidman will be placed in supporting.
2. After last year’s victory, SPC will play it safe and put Moore in supporting and Ellen Page in lead, greatly improving both of their chances for nominations (no internal competition) and maybe even the wins. Moore may not win back-to-back Lead, but she may just pull off a second Oscar, this time in supporting. Meanwhile Page’s narrative is excellent : Freeheld is her baby, she had been trying to make it happen for seven years. Now that she succeeded the Academy may just reward her efforts.
3. Harvey will put Blanchett in lead and Mara in supporting : former probably won’t win a third so soon so no need to improve her chances with a downgrade, while latter may be too co-lead-y to pull off Best Actress but in supporting, she may just be big enough to go all the way.
4. Bel Powley may just be the big breakthrough performer of the season. Her film is very aneducation-y (a film the Academy embraced in a big way), the reviews are stellar and SPC is competent. Her biggest obstacle could be the several other young ladies, also in the mix : Saoirse Ronan, Alicia Vikander, Brie Larson, Elle Fanning, Mia Wasikowska, Jennifer Lawrence. Could we have this many twentysomethings (or younger) in Best Actress this year ?
5. And that brings me to Alicia Vikander. With so many youngsters vying for Best Actress, she may just get the “SUPPORTING wife” treatment in the end. Roles like hers usually do end up in supporting. Felicity Jones last year was more like exception to the rule. Although if she gains traction for Ex Machina, who knows what can happen and in which category…
6. One veteran actress will make the cut. I’m rooting for a career nomination for the wonderful (Tony & Emmy winner) Blythe Danner (I’ll see you in my dreams) but I could be just as happy for Sally Field (Hello, my name is Doris), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), Maggie Smith (Lady in the Van) or Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold).
7. Jessica Chastain will steal the show in Crimson Peak (her role looks meaty as hell) and will score (at least) a supporting nomination.
8. Amy Schumer shouldn’t be underestimated : her film is a critically acclaimed hit, she has some prestige thanks to all those Emmy nominations (4 – producing, writing, directing, acting) and her Oscar narrative is what, well, Oscar dreams are made of : she wrote a deeply personal yet hilariously funny comedy (that really is more like a dramedy) + this is her first big film role so she has that Cinderella shit going on, too + the Academy went for Bridget Jones (also a hilariously flawed romantic comedy leading lady) so they may just go for Trainwreck, too. Just wait and see!
9. Kate Winslet may not be high on these lists right now because her film still doesn’t have a US distributor let alone release date, but she will carry that movie like nobody’s business and the role is great (just finished the book last week) so if the film isn’t a shiftiest, she should turn out to be a damn strong contender in the end.
10. Clearly they have no chance in hell but if we are talking about female performance this year I wanted to give a shoutout t
– Cate Blanchett who was iconic in Cinderella
– Blake Lively whose elegant, understated yet captivating lead performance in The Age of Adeline was a lovely surprise (and the arrival of a new leading lady)
– Carey Mulligan who could have a career best year and though she will probably get all the attention for Suffragette, she was also wonderful in Far from the madding crowd (and Skylight but that’s theatre)
– Alicia Vikander who was truly enigmatic in Ex Machina and a delight in the (already) criminally underrated Testament of Youth
– Juliette Binoche whose brave, fierce portrayal of an actress of a certain age was nothing short of extraordinary and
– Kristen Stewart who was magnetic in the same film and should be seriously considered for a supporting nod.
I can’t wait for Crimson Peak. Looks like so much fun! Having said that, I don’t get vibes that its a BP/BD/Acting showcase for anyone.
OT: Is there going to be a thread for STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON? I think it belongs in the Oscar discussion.
If “Crimson Peak” approaches the heights of del Toro’s “Pan’s Labyrinth” it could be a really stand-out performance by Mia Wasikowska, who is an amazing talent. This would also be a nice change in the kind of film that is typical Oscar-bait, which has become quite predictable. Mia and Carrie Mulligan are both great young actresses, although I think Mia is about 4 years younger.
I think Julianne Moore has a chance of being a nominee since she plays a gay cop dying of cancer who is fighting for her registered domestic partner’s pension benefits. So many boxes seems checked at least for a nomination.
Marion Cotillard is supporting in Macbeth, no way she will get a Best Actress nod for that film, probably not even a Best Supporting Actress nod since Harvey Weinstein has enough contenders in Carol and The Hateful Eight and he couldn’t care less about campaigning for Cotillard, he’s been showing that since Nine and The Immigrant. Plus, Macbeth has no US release date, no poster and no US trailer yet…
Kate Winslet looks terrific in The Dressmaker.
With all due respect to your opinion about Jennifer Aniston’s supposed “snub” for her fine but shamefully overrated turn in the
wildly uneven Cake in favor of another awe-inspiring acting masterclass in Dardennes’ latest masterpiece Two Days, One Night,
from the consistently brilliant Marion Cotillard who has been snubbed over and over again from the Academy Awards since her unforgettable win
because of Aniston’s heavy popularity is in my opinion laughable to say the least. All I’m experessing here is obviously my viewpoint but seriously how can
you even compare a simply solid performance in a terribly mediocre film with an expectedly masterful performance from an
acting legend is beyond my understanding. Anyway…
My predictions would be:
1. Cate Blanchett, Carol
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
5. Brie Larson, Room
The category looks so competitive this year, I love it. I just wish somehow Charlize Theron would make the miracle and
grab a nomination for her fantastic work in Mad Max: Fury Road.
Would love to see Mulligan get a nom for this. Not sure if she can win it, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing because she’s still young. She has that quality in her eyes, like she’s been somewhere and seen stuff, that requires less histrionics and ‘drama’. There is a soulfulness that grips you, and that’s a very rare quality.
1. Mulligan
2. Lawrence
3. Vikander
4. Blanchett
5. Larson
Anyone but Blanchett for the win and I’ll be happy
“They say they don’t care about awards but then they reveal themselves to care very very much. They care enough to subvert and manipulate the process whenever possible — Gravity, not 12 Years a Slave.” 12 Years received way more awards by Critics Guilds than Gravity. So what does this means? Just in terms of nominations?
And yeah, it’s sad not to see a single WOC on the list of potential nominees. It would be nice to see Kitana Kiki Rodríguez from Tangerine (94% on RT!) on that list.
Meryl could turn up in Supporting for Suffragette, but I’d agree that Ricki isn’t getting a Best Actress nomination.
That being said, I wouldn’t be shocked Cold One from Ricki got a Best Song nomination. It would be delightful to see her perform that on the stage.
“…pundits will have their eyes on the bigger names, like Bullock in Our Brand is Crisis, like Brie Larson in Room.”
How is Brie Larson a big name remains a mystery…
People who saw Sicario say that Blunt’s character is mostly a doormat, I really doubt she’d get a nomination.
It seems like Meryl is finally not earning a nod which is refreshing.
It’d be nice to see Mulligan with a win.
I honestly don’t see how the critics going for Cotillard (an excellent actress giving 2 superb performances last year) a handful of times was their way of going AGAINST Jennifer Aniston or any other actress.
My predictions as of right now:
Mulligan
Lawrence
Vikander
Blanchett
Blunt
——–
Mara (unless she goes Supporting)
My predictions
1. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
2. Emily Blunt, Sicario
3. Angelina Jolie, By Th Sea
4. Natalie Portman, Jane Got a Gun
5. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
*OFF TOPIC*
Why no “Inside Out” in the latest update to Best Picture contenders? I would think right now it would have a better shot than Love & Mercy, Youth or Mad Max… (but agree on Carol and Brooklyn…) Sasha – do you really think it has little chance of being nominated?
Mulligan and Lawrence were not nominated together the same year. Mulligan was the year before Lawrence s first nomination.
My predictions, sight unseen, would be:
1. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
2. Cate Blanchett, Carol
3. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
This seems like a far more competitive category than last year, thankfully.
Also, Mulligan and Lawrence were not nominated together in the same year. Mulligan lost to Bullock in the 2009 race and Lawrence lost to Portman in 2010.