My glaring mistake on the Gurus of Gold chart still sits there unfixed, even though I wrote to David Poland about it and also tweeted it out. That mistake was in somehow mistaking the word “Youth” in my head for “Shame,” which I do more often than I care to admit. I have no explanation for this. It could be old age but I doubt it. It could be dyslexia, which is entirely possible. Or it could be my own youth was fraught with so much shame I can’t wrestle the two apart. Either way, I have fixed it on my own because it’s so frustrating to look at.
Listing only films that have been seen first shows how strong Carol would be if the race was determined this way, at least from a fantasy football perspective. If you fold in the other Big Oscar Movies it would likely drop down on the list. Funny, isn’t it?
Poland decided to divide up the charts into three categories. The first, only films that have been seen. The second, the festival circuit films and the third the Big Oscar Movies. This, because Anne Thompson is continuing her method of predicting films she has seen only. We can check it later as the months progress to see which is the better way to predict – seeing or not having seen.
The second chart looks like this:
I don’t think a documentary has any chance of landing on the top five of all ballots, no matter how liberal the Academy voters are. You can expect a couple of cheering comments about Bernie Sanders, though. Also, Inside Out is going to have a tough time getting anywhere near the top five since the Academy continues to be ruled by actors and animated has its own branch.
I’m a bit baffled by Anne Thompson’s predictions in the first chart, I must admit. She has Son of Saul and The End of the Tour in over Brooklyn – which is backed by Fox Searchlight. So that’s seems a bit weird. Scott Feinberg, Nathaniel Rogers and I are the only two who have have faith in the Star Wars movie. Martin Scorsese’s Silence is for sure not coming out this year but for some reason it was listed on the films for consideration anyway. Because of that, I listed it. If by some chance it does come out at year’s end it would be considered but its inclusion is conditional.
