How do I think the year is shaping up so far? We have two big influential festivals left — the New York Film Fest (beginning next week) and the AFI fest, which takes shape later in the year. Both festivals are very good ways to launch films into the Oscar race, the main difference being you have much grouchier critics in New York than you do at AFI. There tends to be a trend of mostly going negative on films out of NYFF — especially when they are being held up to the light to examine whether they will be Best Picture contenders or not. Probably nothing new has happened in the awards cycle in recent years other than the notion of having people like me go to see films and evaluate their Oscar prospects. This is wrong in many ways. Movies should be evaluated on the basis of whether they are good or not, not whether the consensus in Hollywood will reward them.
Either way, I’m not going to stick to films I have seen to predict because that did not serve me well last year. I find I am much better at predicting consensus picks if I haven’t yet seen them. So here we go — following Anne Thompson’s basic model for grouping the contenders.
Right now, I feel as though there is no consensus. Of course, there can’t be. There are only two that form. The first is comprised of film critics. The second is comprised of industry voters. Rarely the twain shall meet. We don’t know what is going to land where at the moment but this is how I see things here in late September of 2015.
I feel like I had a better grasp on things last year. You can see those predictions here.
Best Picture
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. Beasts of No Nation
4. Carol
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Love & Mercy
7. Youth
8. Inside Out
9. Black Mass
10. Room
11. Sicario
Seen by others, likely bets:
Brooklyn
The Martian
Son of Saul
The Danish Girl
Trumbo
Still to come:
The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Joy
Star Wars
Creed
In the Heart of the Sea
The Walk
PREDICTIONS
1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. Steve Jobs
4. Beasts of No Nation
5. Carol
6. Brooklyn
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Joy
9. Bridge of Spies
10. Youth
Strong Contenders:
45 Years
Suffragette
Room
Mad Max: Fury Road
Love & Mercy
Best Director
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
3. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
7. Lenny Abrahmson, Room
8. Scott Cooper, Black Mass
Seen by others, strong bets:
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
Still to come
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
David O. Russell, Joy
JJ Abrams, Star Wars
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
Predictions
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
4. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
5. Todd Haynes, Carol
alt. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies or David O. Russell, Joy or Quentin Tarantino, Hateful Eight
Best Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2 Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Michael Caine, Youth
4. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
6. John Cusack, Love & Mercy
7. Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice
8. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
9. Jacob Tremblay, Room
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The End of the Tour
Others have seen, strong contenders:
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hardy, Legend
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition and Southpaw
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth
Still to come:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Prediction
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Michael Caine, Youth
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Harvey Keitel, Youth
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Robert Redford, Truth
6 Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
7. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
8. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
9. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
10. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Robert De Niro, Joy
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Harvey Keitel, Youth
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Best Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Cate Blanchett, Truth
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
7. Juliette Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in my Dreams
Others have seen/Strong contenders
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Still to come:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Prediction
1. Cate Blanchett, Truth or Carol
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Supporting Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
3. Jane Fonda, Youth
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
6. Ann-Marie Duff, Suffragette
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Still to come
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Jane Fonda, Youth
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Jessica Chastain, The Martian
5. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy or Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Adapted screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
3. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
4. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
5. Emma O’Donoghue, Room
Still to come:
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Steve Jobs
2. Carol
3. Beast of No Nation
4. Brooklyn
5. Bridge of Spies
Original screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Abi Morgan, Suffragette
4. Paul Weitz, Grandma
5. Oren Movermen, Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy
6. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson, Anomalisa
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Prediction
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Anomalisa
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Grandma
Random predictions
Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions
Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Hateful Eight
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Danish Girl
Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Hateful Eight
Best documentary feature
1. Time to Choose
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. The Look of Silence
Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max
4. Steve Jobs
5. Bridge of Spies
Best foreign language film of the year
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Dheepan (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany
Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars
Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars
Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight
Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea
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