Eric Bialas just tweeted to me the following:
@AwardsDaily – Putting together early predictions, and the supporting categories are tough as F.
— Eric (@ericbialas) September 28, 2015
Indeed, this year is still wide open, thus any sort of predictions are proving tricky. In a few months we will know what names are strongest in those categories. Right now, we have only a rough idea of where it might be going with many more options coming up in the films ahead.
The one thing that seems clear about this year is that the supporting categories might offer spillover for Best Actor. That seems likelier than it usually does simply because there are SO MANY good parts that will have to be put in supporting since there is no room left in the lead actor category.
Three supporting performances took hold in the first half of the year. They could be considered leads in any other year but this one. And they are:
1. Paul Dano in Love & Mercy. Maybe it’s the sentimentality in the Beach Boys songs, or maybe it’s how brilliantly Dano captures Brian Wilson. Or maybe it’s just that the movie overall is so likable that many of us are hoping it is remembered by year’s end. Or maybe it’s that Paul Dano is already a great actor with a vast and impressive body of work behind him and has yet to be nominated for a single Oscar. Not for 12 Years a Slave, not for There Will Be Blood, not for Little Miss Sunshine. His work in Love & Mercy is beyond anything we’ve seen him do, even still. It is a heartfelt, memorable, dazzling performance by someone who infused every part of himself with Brian Wilson. His co-star, John Cusack is also someone who should be acknowledged and remembered but it seems like too much to ask for both to be included. One is going to be hard enough.
2. Jason Segel in The End of the Tour. Yeah, I know people who knew David Foster Wallace were annoyed with the movie and with Segel’s portrayal, but for those of us who didn’t know him personally but who merely watched interviews with him on YouTube? Segel’s performance is spot on. It’s just such good acting all the way around, but you really have to let go of this idea that it was a docudrama on DFW. Rather, it was one artist’s interpretation of an encounter that was put to memory. So a lot of it is seen through the eyes of the writer, played by Jesse Eisenberg. The notion of it being the real guy has to be abandoned for the sake of DFW’s memory and for the sake of the film. Either way, Segel’s work here should not be ignored.
3. Harvey Keitel in Youth. While Michael Caine seems to be the one who will get the (well deserved) lead Oscar nomination, his co-star, Harvey Keitel, could pull in a supporting nod. Keitel has only ever been nominated once. Not for The Piano, not for Reservoir Dogs, not for Taxi Driver but for his supporting turn in Bugsy. I guess that’s because people always think Keitel is “playing himself.” His work here, in this ensemble, would ordinarily be lead but it has to be supporting because Caine is lead and there isn’t room for two Best Actor nominees from any one film, not this year.
Moving on through the festival circuit, things get even more condensed. At Telluride, Steve Jobs brought not just Jeff Daniels in a notable turn, but also Seth Rogan, believe it or not. Room has Jacob Tremblay who could be run in supporting because he’ll never get into lead, or else it would be tough. Joel Edgerton is one of the best performances in Black Mass and is almost a lead, really, but would have to be viewed as supporting because Depp is lead. Moving on Toronto, there is Robert Redford in Truth — Redford, who didn’t campaign and thus missed out on a Best Actor nod for All is Lost. There is Benicio Del Toro who very nearly steals the show in Sicario, and there is the “holy shit” performance of Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation. These are all powerhouse performances that could very well bump any of those mentioned above.
The entire supporting actor category could be devoted to just the film Spotlight. How many great performances? Liev Schreiber is fantastic in Spotlight (AND in Pawn Sacrifice). Stanley Tucci once again knocks it out of the park. Michael Keaton, for chrissakes absolutely on his game. And finally, the one who will probably get the nod, Mark Ruffalo yet again poised to be a nominee. Ruffalo has been nominated twice, once for The Kids Are All Right and once for Foxcatcher. He is the beating heart of Spotlight, though honestly, all of the performances are good.
Speaking of supporting turns, The Martian has Jeff Daniels again, and Chiwetel Ejiofor. Both could be considered for the supporting category.
Several films coming up promise great supporting turns, most notably by Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, and Tom Hardy who is already garnering major buzz for his work on The Revenant. The Big Short is going to be packed with at least two supporting turns with Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell. Max Von Sydow, Harrison Ford and who knows who else from Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Robert DeNiro from Joy. Then we get to Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, which might have a few great supporting turns pop up, like Samuel L. Jackson. Then there is Sylvester Stallone maybe turning in a great performance as the aging Rocky in Creed. Hey, stranger things have happened.
So how do we go about ordering these names? We can’t know what the films with the most best picture heat will be yet. We think we know but we don’t know. I would probably start my five this way (without really knowing anything, of course):
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
3. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
6. Harvey Keitel, Youth
7. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
8. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
10. Robert DeNiro, Joy
11. Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs
12. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
13. Robert Redford, Truth
But again, who really knows how this whole thing will play out. So much of who gets in depends on what films are liked by the voting bodies overall.
Stallone wins for creed. Laugh if you wish, but then see the movie and eat crow.
A24’s “For Your Consideration” page is now active, and Segal and Tremblay are both being campaigned Supporting.
http://a24awards.com/index.html
Bryce, Mark Rylance because Mark Rylance. You don’t need intel other than the fact that he’s one of the world’s greatest actors. And I say that knowing how many actors are mentioned in such terms at least once in their career, but this is for real. For technique, versatility and insight into the human mind, he’s a cut above most, if not all, of the so-called ‘greats’.
Maybe kind of a longshot pick, but….Christoph Waltz for Spectre? The Academy loves him, maybe enough to overwhelm their no-Bond stance in anything other than tech and music categories. Waltz’s role seems to be built up (at least from the trailers) as sort of a ‘final boss’ puppetmaster Big Bad, so it carries more stature than your average Bond villain.
I think Keaton has more chances than Ruffalo. There’s this narrative about him losing Best Actor for Birdman that it’s probably going to help him get a nomination, maybe a win even.
As far as my predictions, I’d go:
Keaton – Spotlight
Hardy – The Revenant
Keitel – Youth
Jackson – The Hateful Eight
Del Toro – Sicario
I don’t think Elba is in. In fact, I don’t think that movie is going anywhere near the Oscar race. Is a great film and everyone should watch it and don’t give a fuck about Awards, but seriously, is not their kind of film AT ALL. Shame on them, I say.
The Revenant looks too action-y to get any nominations; also it’s rare to be nominated in two consecutive years in a row, even after a win. Wanting Leo to win and putting him in a role that can win are two differnt things. Spotlight HAS to have representation in this field, everyone in it is supporting, so probably Ruffalo again. Idris Elba is in by the sheer weight of the role. A film with great reviews has a better chance of landing a supporting turn than one that doesn’t. I don’t see much for Hateful Eight in this category. Dano is lead, and the movie came out too early, but he IS deserving. Benicio is in as he steals the movie. And possibly Keitel in Youth. That reads: Elba, Keitel, Ruffalo, Ramirex in Joy or De Niro, and probably Mark Rylance, who is tres respected among actors.
You’ve been missed, Mattoc!
I don’t know, man. Isaac in EX-MACHINA ftw! (for now anyways). What he did in that movie still haunts me.
Also, what’s the intel on Rylance? Why already on Sasha’s the top five?
I think the academy will nominate both idris elba and Samuel l. Jackson. . That way they can say this year has been “diverse” and not deal with ppl saying the “Oscars are so white”lol. .. so much sarcasm my post btw except for the fact that they are probably the only two minorities this year that have a chance at making it
I feel like Love & Mercy isn’t actually going to happen anywhere, and enough of the later-year films will hit to block it out of all categories, including here. Youth seems to be declining, too. And I’ve always been skeptical that Tom Hardy’s first nomination would be for The Revenant. I kinda think it’s the Leo Show, pretty much.
My list is probably Jackson/Del Toro/Ruffalo/Elba/De Niro.
Because that makes a lot more sense. The love is simply not getting spread anymore, and predictions should be made knowing that. So four of those come from strong BP possibilities, and another from a fringe contender likely to pick up several tech nods. Keitel is also plausible, as is Rylance if he really impresses, and Bridge of Spies turns out less lukewarm than I’m thinking it will.
As long as Idris Elba is getting in, Im fine
As long as Idris Elba is getting in, Im fine
Right???
I’m thinking the biggees in contention will be from these 10 (in no particular order):
Elba
Hardy
Ruffalo
Keaton
Edgerton
Keitel
De Niro
Someone else from Joy
Del Toro
Someone from the Hateful 8
Not feeling:
Dano, Segel, any of the child actors who are apparently excellent.
Those are my feelings as of now.
I hadn’t read Paddy’s post here before I commented in the Revenant thread. I said something similar about Hardy. This year is going to be great looks like, but full of tough decisions. At least for me. A lot of these people are longtime favorites of mine.
My top 10 to date:
1. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
2. Nicholas Hoult, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Milo Parker, Mr. Holmes
4. Hugh Keays-Byrne, Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Peter Sarsgaard, Pawn Sacrifice
6. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
7. Alexander Skarsgård, The Diary of a Teenage Girl
8. Paul Giamatti, Love & Mercy
9. R.J. Cyler, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
10. Michael Stuhlbarg, Pawn Sacrifice
I consider Dano and Cusack co-leads. If anything, Cusack is Supporting, because his half of the film is split between him and Elizabeth Banks.
Finally someone mentioned Nicholas Hoult. As cool and badass Mad Max and Furiosa were, it is Nux who is the only character that undergoes a significant change. He’s the richest character when it comes to his onscreen journey. Max and Furiosa are mostly driven by their backstories which are kept secret, so onscreen they remain as a sort of presence and an enigma, not (yet) fully dimentional characters. Nux however is very much flesh and blood, and is portrayed brilliantly by Hoult. But him being nominated is a huge longshot. He’s in a movie where the focus is not on the performances (as great as they might be). Furthemore, i’ll be hard to maintain the buzz for an early release with so many potential contenders in the pipeline. But let’s face it, Del Toro has this one in the bag :).
Paddy, I agree about Hardy. Just watched that trailer minutes ago and Hardy was wowsauce. What an accent. After thinking about it…I was using Wallace as a barometer for why Tremblay could go lead but just now realized she, and only she, was the cover for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Tremblay and Larson seem to share equal amount of credit. I suppose for a child to go lead they have to be THE unequivocal lead.
I think Jacob Tremblay will go supporting. Child actors very rarely get campaigned in lead, and even more rarely actually get the nominations.
Having watched the trailer for The Revenant and judging by the build-up of buzz he’s been receiving for years now, I’d call Tom Hardy as the current frontrunner. For me, he outshone Leonardo DiCaprio in that trailer.
I’ll just add: I always wonder what would happen if those who cover the Oscars took a firmer stand. Usually, I mean this in regards to bloggers keeping a film in the conversation even if they believe that Oscar voters might reject it because it’s a “hard sit” or “not an Oscar film.”
I’ll extend that notion to this race, wondering what would happen if bloggers kept predicting performances in the category where they actually belong. If Fox Searchlight pushed such-and-such actor as supporting, but Academy voters looking online saw that many people considered him lead, what would happen?
“That seems likelier than it usually does simply because there are SO MANY good parts that will have to be put in supporting since there is no room left in the lead actor category.”
I just feel like it should be said somewhere on this page that a lead performance should not be “put” as supporting just because producers think it’ll make it easier to get a nomination. (I know Sasha didn’t mean to imply that it is okay, but the phrasing above seems to accept this tactic.) It’s a cheap move and a disservice to actual supporting actors/performances who get pushed out for leads.
Example: I’ve heard both Sasha/Jeff on Oscar Poker and the gang on The Film Experience podcast praise Liev Schreiber in Spotlight yet everyone agrees that he won’t be nominated. Why? Because the actual leads of that movie are being pushed in supporting. That’s a real pity.
Of course, the irony is that if all of these leads get bumped to supporting, they’ll actually make it harder for many of them to get a nomination. In lead, you have Caine, Depp, DiCaprio, Fassbender, Redmayne, and maybe Damon or Hanks. In supporting, you get the mess of dozens of competitors outlined nicely in this post.
If Stallone is nominated for Creed wouldn’t that set a record for the longest gap between nominations playing the same character? I think Newman had 24 years between The Hustler and Color of Money. But yeah this may be the absolute toughest category to call aside from best actress. I say Spotlight get 2, Dano gets 1 if he’s running for supporting and Keitel gets in for Youth. #5 is a smackdown between Elba and (if what they say is true) Ramirez. I think Tremblay will go lead and if the film catches fire he’ll get in.
I just saw “Black Mass” yesterday, and Joel Edgarton’s performance was amazing. I think he’ll be in the running this year.
A performance that hasn’t been mentioned, and one which I thought was really very good and worthy of nomination was Alan Rickman in “A Little Chaos”.
I totally agree with you on Alan Rickman’s performance as Louis XIV in A Little Chaos, but he was overlooked in Harry Potter and The Dealthy Hallows Part 2, so I suspect he will be overlooked here, unfortunately.
Wishful thinking can’t hurt: Oscar Isaac in Ex-Machina…
I thought Idris Elba was the overall favorite – even at this point – with his performance in BEASTS?
I bet you that Keitel gets in (beloved, respected veteran who hasn’t been in the Oscar game for years). Any word on Rogen in STEVE JOBS? Also this could be a category to nominate one of the terrific performances in STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON. Seems that competition is fierce.
I also loved Michael Shannon in 99 Homes and Freeheld. I think Keaton (Birdman spillover love) and Ruffalo will both be nominated. Hard to see a winner here yet. Maybe Keaton or Hardy? Dano will be seen in Youth at year end so he’ll be in the conversation to remind people about Love and Mercy.
can’t really say (lol my fingers posted without me). But I do think Jason Mitchell from STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON will stay on my short list. If Benicio Del Toro is supporting then of course, I’ll be rooting for him all the way. When I see THE MARTIAN I can rule out Sean Bean, since I haven’t heard anything about him. At least he’s in it. 🙂 Otherwise, I’d like Joel Edgerton to be recognized for something but if this category is as crowded as usual, he’ll probably drop off my list as well. The only other worthy performance I’ve seen is Josh Brolin in EVEREST. I dunno. I guess my list is TBD.
Since I’ve been paying attention to the Oscars, around the mid nineties, this has always been the most difficult category. I never have enough spaces for the people I want nominated and then the Academy rarely agrees with me anyway. So my heartbreak often happens here on nomination morning. It usually determines whether I care about that year’s awards at all. Often my “oscar season” ends right there. Since I haven’t really seen anything yet, I
the Doof Warrior was played by Iota, a well known cabaret performer in Austraila. He also played the MC in The Great Gatsby. Here is some of his work.
http://youtu.be/-GEoBH7nEHA
I just want my baby Oscar Isaac nominated.
Apparently Steve Carell will be campaigned in lead for The Big Short (everyone else in supporting), and though vague as fuck and no doubt unreliable as far as sources go, according to crowd reports from the first Joy screenings, we should also watch out for Edgar Ramirez.
Keaton’s trouble is that he’s outacted by Schreiber and Ruffalo and arguably Tucci in the same movie.
If Oscar voters feel they owe him, anything could happen, but I think Ruffalo’s the most likely SPOTLIGHT acting nomination.
Rylance hasn’t appeared in many films but he is an absolute legend in the British theatrical world. He could receive a large chunk of the British voting bloc if his role is any good.
I’d vote for the guy who played the Doof Warrior in Mad Max. Could Ruffalo, Dano, Keitel, etc. play a flaming guitar? I rest my case!
In all seriousness, I have a hard time seeing Dano or Segel simply because they’re LEAD CHARACTERS. Even if they’re marketed as supporting roles, I think any voter that’s seen the movies will think “wait, supporting? That doesn’t compute” and leave them off their ballots (or might vote them in the Best Actor ballot, if anything). Same could go for Keitel in ‘Youth’ though I haven’t seen the movie yet.
Haven’t seen a lot of these nominees, but purely off the top of my head, I’d suspect Keaton might be the favourite. He had the close call last year with Birdman and maybe voters will want to make it up to him after another strong performance this year.
I think Dano is in for Love & Mercy. His appearance in other films might help him be in the minds of voters.
I agree with Sasha. I think Dano’s in… I don’t think Segal will make it.
Unfortunately, at the end of day I think performances like Dano and Jason Segel will be forgotten, which stinks. Would love to be wrong!
Jake Abel, Love & Mercy
Ten more that should by all rights be in the conversation:
Joe Manganiello (MAGIC MIKE XXL)
Ben Vereen (TIME OUT OF MIND)
Sam Elliott (GRANDMA)
James Ransone (TANGERINE)
Shea Whigham (COP CAR)
Alexander Skarsgård (THE DIARY OF A TEENAGE GIRL)
Oscar Isaac (EX MACHINA)
Larry Fessenden (WE ARE STILL HERE)
Tunde Adebimpe (7 CHINESE BROTHERS)
Tom Noonan (ANOMALISA)
Joe Manganiello (MAGIC MIKE XXL)
Ben Vereen (TIME OUT OF MIND)
Sam Elliott (GRANDMA)
James Ransone (TANGERINE)
Shea Whigham (COP CAR)
Alexander Skarsgård (THE DIARY OF A TEENAGE GIRL)
Oscar Isaac (EX MACHINA)
Larry Fessenden (WE ARE STILL HERE)
Tunde Adebimpe (7 CHINESE BROTHERS)
Tom Noonan (ANOMALISA)
Yes, indeed. Yikes. How come there are so many!?