Gold Derby’s Daniel Montgomery is reporting that David O. Russell’s Joy will compete as a drama at the Globes, which means Jennifer Lawrence won’t go in the comedy category, which opens up that category. But first, it will be a gamble to put Jennifer Lawrence and David O. Russell together in a movie and have it not be funny. The AwardsWatch ongoing sploogefest for the film based on a test screening (they are predicting it to win the whole show) said that it was on the level of Winter’s Bone in terms of Jennifer Lawrence’s work. As Montgomery points out on Gold Derby, the only recent Russell film to compete in drama was The Fighter, which went on to win Oscars in both supporting categories.
Right now, let’s look at how things might divide up – first, there are only five slots for drama. How quickly might they fill up? Let’s look at potential locks.
Best Picture, drama
The Hateful Eight or The Danish Girl or Suffragette or Beasts of No Nation or Bridge of Spies, Mad Max, Black Mass. Can Joy crack the top five there? It’s definitely possible. Jennifer Lawrence is beloved. Remember,
Silver Linings Playbook won Best Comedy at the Globes. Les Miserables beat Silver Linings at the Globes.
Which film will Joy bump? I doubt it will bump Brooklyn or The Revenant or Spotlight. Might it bump Carol? I would not bet against the Weinstein Co. on that one. Weinstein has been handling David O. Russell but he’s not working on Joy. It will be interesting, for sure, to see how this gamble plays out.
I’m guessing that Paolo Sorrentino’s Youth will compete in Comedy. As will The Martian. I’m also going to bet that Steve Jobs goes in as a comedy — It’s certainly possible and we’re trying to make it as easy as possible. So clearly, Joy would have a clear field if it landed in this category.
Love & Mercy (musical)
Trainwreck (just a hunch)
It’s no problem putting Jennifer Lawrence in for Best Actress, drama since she’s already been put in that category. Still, this sudden shift in tone is interesting. I’ve been looking forward to Joy for the entire year. The Oscar race could use a Best Picture winner with a woman in the lead. Just saying.