UPDATE: Steve Carell not going into supporting, but lead
Best Actor
Update: Now that Steve Carell is entering the lead actor race that complicates things. Were he in supporting, he might actually win. But in Best Actor he goes up against the toughest category in the race. Right now, Best Actor is looking something like this:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Caine, Youth
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Matt Damon, the Martian
Steve Carell, the Big Short
Coming up: Will Smith, Concussion
Will Steve Carell bump one of the top five when there are already actors trying to break in? It’s hard to say. I have to see the film first but it’s definitely something to think about.
Best Picture
Room, Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, Suffragette, Brooklyn, and Joy were to be among the films that turned this Oscar season into a “female driven Best Picture race.” The truth is, it will be anything but. I hope you will all pay very close attention as you watch those films shrink back while films about men take their place. There is no sinister reason behind this except that the majority of voters are male. They like movies they can swim in. They like movies where they are the central figure. You’d think women would prefer films about women but they mostly fall in line with the male thinking too – just look at how the Alliance of Female Journalists votes every year. Their picks are no different than picks from other major groups. Either films about men are just plain better than films about women, or the one singular narrative has been internalized by both sides so as not to feel left out of the tribal consensus (please do not rob me of access to dick). Either way, there was a screening of The Big Short last night at the DGA and early word is that it’s going to be a “player.” That means we have to try to squeeze it in somehow in the Best Picture race predictions.
Let’s look at how we here at AwardsDaily see Best Picture – films that have been seen:
- The Martian – to some it doesn’t seem “serious” enough, but what it will have in its favor is that it’s a pleasurable, across the board likable film that leaves people feeling satisfied. More than that, they leave feeling good about the world and their place in it. This version of our future is hopeful. Mankind has not been destroyed. Life on earth is still being protected and preserved by we non-self-centered, non-barbaric humans and we’ve figured out climate change because look, we’re still using fuel to take us to Mars. It’s a brilliant comeback for Ridley Scott, a great central performance by Matt Damon and the most diverse cast you’ll find in any film this year. Branch by branch it has it all covered, from Best Picture on down to Visual Effects.
- Spotlight – this is another film that makes people feel good about humanity because we’re still fighting the good fight for truth, justice and freedom. Unlike its opposing twin, Truth, Spotlight does not show how our news media has been co-opted by big corporations. These are ethical journalists protecting society from molesting priests. It’s a great movie, though its nominations will be centered on the major categories like Picture, Supporting Actor, Director, Screenplay, possibly Editing, possibly Score. It’s more of a 5 nominations movie than a 11 nominations movie.
- Steve Jobs – writing wizardry, great acting, a vibrant, timely subject – this is still the kind of filmmaking the industry and Hollywood prefers. It’s Birdman in the tech world and without the sympathetic protagonist. It doesn’t mirror back Hollywood but it mirrors back success and power at the high cost of avoiding real relationships. It’s high on style and one of the few films (like The Martian) that will be quote-worthy. It, too, is a more of a 5 nominations movie.
- Bridge of Spies – Spielberg’s 9-11 nominee is another film about hope in a way. It is about confronting our worst instincts in the post-9/11 world. Tom Hanks is the good guy, fighting Oskar Schindler style to preserve human decency at a time when there was none. It’s beautifully made, a celebration of everything Hollywood studio films really do well – excellence in crafts across the board.
- Brooklyn – so far, the one film starring a female that actually might go all the way (along with Joy, maybe Room). This sumptuous, enriching story offers a chance to look at what America once was: the land of opportunity where anyone could come here and redefine themselves. It’s strong on character, and a celebration of women supporting women. It’s swoony and romantic, along the lines of Sense and Sensibility. It should see around 8-10 nominations.
- Room – the Toronto audience winner has gone on to a Best Picture nomination 6 out of 7 of the last 7 years. I would not bet against it. it is another film with a female that might land in the race, along with Joy and Brooklyn. Three seems too much to hope for so if you think Joy gets in you might have to consider dropping Room or Brooklyn to make way for other movies coming up next.
- The Big Short – I haven’t seen it. I’m adding it here because from what I’ve heard it’s going to be one of the films considered for Best Picture, maybe even not this far down the list.
That’s half the story. There is another story waiting to be told of Joy and The Revenant, of The Hateful Eight and Concussion. Of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Remember, you are still looking for the FIVE films most voters will put down on their nomination ballots between Christmas and New Year’s, which is all the time they’ll have. If they didn’t watch it, or didn’t want to watch it, forget it. Therefore, Best Picture could look something like this:
The Martian
The Revenant
Joy
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Room
The Hateful Eight or The Big Short
Here’s hoping: Beasts of No Nation
That could be how this thing plays out. Films that hover on the fringe like The Danish Girl, Suffragette, Love & Mercy, Concussion – who knows where they’ll land. This year’s Best Picture race is far from finished and probably only six out of the named films above will get in.
Here’s the thing though. If push comes to shove the films about women will be the ones that get dumped. Maybe Joy will prevail, maybe Brooklyn, maybe Room but probably not all three.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence could be winning her second Best Actress Oscar, rare for someone so young, if Joy rises to the top. Right now, her main competition seems to be Brie Larson for Room. Larson has earned raves for Room, starting way back in Telluride. The other actresses in line for a nod, possibly a win would be Saoirse Ronan, who carries Brooklyn. Carey Mulligan who also carries Suffragette. Lily Tomlin who carries Grandma. For a time it seemed like Cate Blanchett would be a slam dunk for Truth – and that might still happen. She will compete against herself in Carol, which might mean she even misses a nomination entirely as votes get split between her two performances.
It’s hard not see this as a race between the seen Brie Larson, a first time nominee in a film that won the Toronto International Film Fest Audience Award and the unseen Jennifer Lawrence, a two time Best Actress, and a Supporting Actress nominee. Three Oscar nominations and one win before the age of 25. Has there ever been any actress who accomplished as much in such a short time? If Jennifer Lawrence does win, she will be the youngest of the 12 who’ve won two Best Actress awards.
Lawrence will have to beat every one of her other performances, including her win for Silver Linings Playbook to take this home, which shouldn’t be too hard, especially if this performance is better.
If Best Actress is down to these five:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette or Cate Blanchett for Carol or Truth
That would make, ironically enough, Lily Tomlin the one who is not like the others. Tomlin would be the older vet among a handful of bright young up and comers. Lawrence comes in with major star power. Nothing has slowed her curve. She’s starred in two franchise films while also managing to keep working in smaller independent dramas. She is beautiful the way Hollywood needs her to be – tall, blonde, sexy while not intimidating to other women. She has the magic Julia Roberts formula of attracting both male and female affection. But Lawrence is doing so exceedingly well because she doesn’t have anywhere near the same kind of competition that Roberts had back in the day. Both of them came out of nowhere and took the box office by storm but it took Roberts a lot longer to kiss a lot of frogs before she won her Oscar. Lawrence got her first nomination out of the gate and never had to really prove herself. She was just good from the get go. She has Brando-like charisma on screen and steals every movie she’s in. Because of that, winning a second Oscar would seem like a cake walk for her. Ain’t no mountain high enough.
Best Director
The titans vs. the newbies will determine how this plays out. You have your big guns – Ridley Scott, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, Danny Boyle and Todd Haynes. And you have your newbies, Todd McCarthy, Lenny Abramson, John Crowley, Adam McKay. Who gets in will probably be different, I’m guessing, between the Globes, the DGA and the Academy. It will depend on which movies are most liked overall. But probably, I would guess, it will look something like this:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Just outside popular circle: Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation, Adam McKay, The Big Short
They really have to like the movie for it to be: John Crowley, Lenny Abramson
Full predictions
Best Picture
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. The Martian
2. Spotlight
3. Steve Jobs
4. Brooklyn
5. Room
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Youth
9. Carol
10. The Danish Girl
11. Beasts of No Nation
12. Black Mass
13. 45 Years
14. Love & Mercy
Seen by others, likely bets:
Son of Saul
Trumbo
The Big Short
Not seen yet:
In the Heart of the Sea
Joy
Creed
The Hateful Eight
By the Sea
PREDICTIONS
1. The Martian
2. The Revenant (sight unseen)
3. Joy
4. Spotlight
5. Steve Jobs
5. Bridge of Spies
6. Brooklyn
7. Room
8. The Big Short
9. Carol
10. The Hateful Eight (Sight unseen)
11. Beasts of No Nation
Best Director
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. Bridge of Spies, Steven Spielberg
6. Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
7. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
8. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Lenny Abramson, Room
10. John Crowley, Brooklyn
Seen by others, strong bets:
Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Still to come
David O. Russell, Joy
JJ Abrams, Star Wars
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Predictions
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
4. David O. Russell, Joy
5. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs, Todd Haynes, Carol, Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies or Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation or Adam McKay, The Big Short
Best Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
4. Michael Caine, Youth
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
6. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
7. John Cusack, Love & Mercy
8. Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room
11. Jesse Eisenberg, The End of the Tour
Others have seen, strong contenders:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hardy, Legend
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition and Southpaw
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth
Still to come:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Prediction
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Michael Caine, Youth or Steve Carell, The Big Short
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
8. Tom Hardy, Legend
9. Abraham Atta, Beasts of No Nation
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Harvey Keitel, Youth
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
6. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
7 Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
8. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
9. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
10. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
11. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Robert De Niro, Joy
Prediction
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
3. Harvey Keitel, Youth
4. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Best Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett, Carol/Truth
4. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
8. Juliette Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
10. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in my Dreams
Others have seen/Strong contenders
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, Tangerine
Still to come:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Prediction
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Cate Blanchett, Truth or Carol
4. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
5. Lily Tomlin, Grandma or Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Long shot: Kitana Kiki Rodriguez, Tangerine
Supporting Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
2. Rooney Mara, Carol
3. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
4. Jane Fonda, Youth
5. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Ann-Marie Duff, Suffragette
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
9. Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Still to come
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Prediction
1. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
3. Rooney Mara, Carol
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Jane Fonda, Youth
6. Jessica Chastain, The Martian or Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Adapted screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
3. Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
4. Drew Goddard, The Martian
5. Emma O’Donoghue, Room or Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
6. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
7. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
Others have seen:
Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
Adam McKay, the Big Short
Prediction
1. Steve Jobs
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Brooklyn
5. The Big Short
6. Beasts of No Nation
Original screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. The Coens, Matt Charman, Bridge of Spies
4. Abi Morgan, Suffragette
5. Paul Weitz, Grandma
5. Oren Movermen, Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy
6. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
David O. Russell, Joy
Prediction
1. Spotlight
2. Joy
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Suffragette
5. Inside Out
Random predictions
Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions
Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Martian
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Carol
Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies
Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. Amy
Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Joy
4. The Martian
5. Bridge of Spies
Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany
Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars
Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars
Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight
Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea
I just saw Room and I’d really love to see that kid Jacob Tremblay walk off with a nomination.
The ending to that film – what that kid does – really put a lump in my throat.
I’d prefer him over Steve Carrell.
My Predictions are
Best Picture
Bridge Of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Steve Jobs
Best Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu-The Revenant
Danny Boyle-Steve Jobs
Steven Speilberg-Bridge Of Spies
Todd Haynes-Carol
Tom Hooper-The Danish Girl
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston-Trumbo
Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl
Johnny Depp-Black Mass
Leonardo Dicaprio-The Revenant
Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs
Best Actress
Brie Larson-Room
Cate Blanchett-Carol
Jennifer Lawrence-Joy
Julianne Moore-Freeheld
Lily Tomlin-Grandma
Best Supporting Actor
Jason Mitchell-Straight Outta Compton
Jason Segel-End Of The Tour
Mark Rylance-Bridge of Spies
Michael Keaton-Spotlight
Tom Hardy-The Revenant
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Ellen Page-Freeheld
Joan Allen-Room
Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs
Rooney Mara-Carol
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge Of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Joy
Spotlight
Trainwreck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Brooklyn
Carol
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
When Marnie Was There
Best Art Direction
Bridge Of Spies
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
The Martian
Best Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Sicario
The Walk
Youth
Best Costume Design
Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Far From The Madding Crowd
Best Film Editing
Bridge Of Spies
Carol
The Revenant
Room
Steve Jobs
Best Makeup
Black Mass
The Danish Girl
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Mixing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound Editing
The Hateful Eight
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spectre
Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Age Of Ultron
In The Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
Best Original Song
Earned It by The Weeknd-Fifty Shades Of Grey
Hands Of Love by Miley Cyrus-Freeheld
Phenomenal by Eminem-Southpaw
See You Again by Wiz Khalfia F/Charlie Puth-Furious 7
Writing On The Wall by Sam Smith-Spectre
Best Documentary
Amy
Going Clear
He Named Me Malala
Listen To Me Marlon
The Wolfpack
Best Foreign Film
The Assassin
Goodnight Mommy
Labyrinth Of Lies
The Second Mother
Son Of Saul
Not sure about the short films, but i know 100% that either Frozen Fever, Lava or the short film that is set to shown during The Good Dinosaur will be nominated for best animated short.
I’m very surprised to see Emily Blunt completely left off the best actress list for Sicario, a film that was well-received and somewhat Oscar friendly, for Theron and Binoche who I don’t think have much of a chance at a nomination. I would even put Blunt above Mulligan in Sufragette, as that film’s didn’t receive the warmest festival reception.
You left Michael Fassbender off the Best Actor list. Isn’t he the front runner right now? I’m sure Leo’s scenery chewing will be added to the list when The Revenant comes out, but for right now Fassbender certainly belongs on that list ahead of Matt Damon and Johnny Depp.
Also, on the Best Picture maybes – I don’t really think Angelina Jolie Pitt is pushing for By The Sea despite it’s opening date being in the heart of awards season and being the opening movie of AFI Festival. They’ll be out of the country the rest of the year and into January 2015 while she directs a movie in Cambodia. It would be a little hard to campaign from 8,200 miles away.
Jennifer Lawrence would be the youngest 2 times Oscar Winner of all time! That would be incredible. I am rooting for her!
As more and more people see CAROL and THE DANISH GIRL, its becoming clear just how absurrrrrrrd the category fraud is there for Mara & Vikander. I wonder if they’ll just be PUT in lead with voters or not get nommed at all due to the confusion.
Also, wouldn’t it be a hoot if in Lead, Blanchett got in for TRUTH and Mara for CAROL? But then that would only leave 3(!) slots for the likes of:
Lawrence
Mulligan
Rampling
Larson
Ronan
Smith
Tomlin
Blunt
Schumer
etc etc etc.
…… crazy.
I’m really curious to see what the NBR picks this year. They’re my favorite critics’ group and they’re usually a little more eclectic than the Academy (who else would put Walter Mitty in their Top 10?).
Dud you hear Jacob Tremblay in Room is going supporting?
And I haven’t seen Fury Road. But if an action movie can get that much acclaim but fail to make it into the Best Picture race, then what’s the point of the extended field?
There isn’t really an extended field. They have five favorites to pick. You still have to think of which five most will choose.
And by up-and-comers in the Best Actress category, you mean people nobody knows in movies nobody is going to watch. Except JLaw, of course.
I’m not betting on The Martian in anything except technical. If any big budget gets a nomination my pick would be Mad Max: Fury Road for BP and even that’s a long shot.
Best actor is a weak field this year. Black Mass box office is underwhelming. Will Depp campaign and will Warner Brothers splash out the cash? Leonardo Dicaprio is the only lock. Michael Fassbender has a good shot. Will Smith seems like he may want to campaign. Corey Hawkins or any lead from Straight Outa Compton should not be counted out. All of the Spotlight actors are going support. Who is the male lead in Hateful Eight or is it all support too? Tom Hanks, Bradley Cooper, and Brad Pitt are all flying under the radar but they are possibilities. Oscar voters love a star (especially when they need ratings results).
Best actress is the one to watch. I’m not up to date on who is running for lead or support. Amy Schumer could be a surprise nomination She is having a huge year with Trainwreck being both a critical and box office success. The same can be said of Melissa McCarthy in Spy (McCarthy gets a slight edge because she’s a previous Oscar nominee). Emily Blunt in Sicario. Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn. Carey Mulligan in Sufragette. Blanchett in Truth or Carol. Mara in Carol. Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road. Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl. Lily Tomlin in Grandma. Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years. Angelina Jolie in By the Sea. The list goes on and on.
Jessica Chastain keeps getting hurt by her lack of fame. She’s been in some of the best movies of the last few years, but she’s not a household name. I consider her one of the best actresses today so I’m disappointed more people don’t know her. She won’t get an Oscar nomination this year. If she does a popular franchise her chances for a win will improve (The Hunger Games for Julianne Moore).
Brie Larson is facing an uphill battle. She’s not very well known and A24, as a newcomer, may not know how to navigate the Oscar campaign landscape. I hope I’m wrong and this is the year Oscar voters finally discover what a great actress Brie Larson has become. The same can be said of Saorise Ronan for not being well known, but Fox Searchlight has a history of getting their movies and actors nominated.
Jennifer Lawrence is a lock. Oscar voters love her and DOR. This is his first movie with a female protagonist. She rules the holiday cineplex (Mockingjay 2 for Thanksgiving and Joy for Christmas). Her wage gap essay is one of the biggest entertainment news stories this year. It’s hard to compete with that type of momentum. The question is, will she want to campaign after the worldwide Mockingjay Part 2 promotion? Though at this point in her career she may not need to campaign at all to win a second trophy. I don’t get how you can compare the woman who flipped the bird in the Oscar press room to Julia Roberts. Lawrence is brash, controversial and has indie cred.
As a woman of color it’s sad to see television is still the only medium giving African-American, Asian-American, and Latina actresses meaty and award worthy material. The only woc with an Oscar shot is Gugu Mbatha-Raw. She was grossly overlooked for Beyond the Lights. The prestige film world still relegates woc to only slaves and maids.
The guys from STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON are campaigning in lead?
How was DiCaprio a lock if the movie is yet to be screened? That’s just as pre-mature as predicting Glenn Close a lock for a future Spielberg film.
I’m pretty sure Mockingjay Part 2 will top the box-office but I’m skeptical if Joy will top Christmas. Yes there’s a possibility but not as assured as Mockingjay Part 2.
I feel the issue of women of color this year. But for a consolation, Rinko Kikuchi was amazing in Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter. I think it’s qualified for this year’s race. That movie is a small indie gem. One of my favorites this year.
I’m counting Dicaprio a lock simply because of a weak field and his pedigree with Oscar voters. I was initially surprised The Revenant was even ready for this year.
Star Wars will clobber everything, but Joy could do well as counter programming. I’m predicting a top 5 box office opening.
Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter never got anywhere near where I live. I think it’s on Netflix so I’ll check it out.
You don´t consider THE LOOK OF SILENCE for a nomination for Best documentarry? So far, it´s my favourite film this year – very impressing, stayed with me for along time.
Jessica Chastain should be considered for Crimson Peak instead of The Martian. I mean, I couldn’t remember any scene where she stood out there. While in Crimson Peak, she was just masterful especially in the kitchen, the teacup and the hair scenes!
Don’t know how much CGI and practical effects they used but the visual effects of the ghosts were elegant and also deserved consideration for the category. Not to mention the Production Design, Costumes, Sound Editing, Cinematography and to a stretch Music.
I agree Jessica Chastain killed it in Crimson Peak. She was so electric. You could feel all that tension bottled up and I love how explosion she became. Wish she was more in the conversation.
How is Bradley Cooper not being considered ? Has been nominated the last two times he worked with David O Russel , and last year. He’ll sneak in , now the only question is who will be the supporting actress pic for Joy?
Hmm.. Now what about Carrell in FREEHELD? I’m not saying a double nom, but bonus points for Best Actor perhaps, plus points carried over from FOXCATCHER?
I didn’t realize BEASTS OF NO NATION was already on Netflix. I thought it was the 17th for some reason. I’m gonna go watch.
Given that Carell’s performance in Freeheld was widely cited in reviews as being too overtly comic, I doubt it’ll work in his favor.
Oh. That’s too bad. Thanks for the info.
I watched a bunch of films lately, here’s how I think they might do Oscar-wise :
– EVEREST (disappointing, good effects and great cast, though)
– THE MARTIAN (across-the-board player, could it be Ridley Scott’s time at last ?)
– SUFFRAGETTE (flawed masterpiece, my favourite kind, picture-script-actress nods SHOULD happen)
– ROOM (Tremblay actually has more screen time than even Larson, so putting him in supporting is ridiculous)
– BROOKLYN (wonderful instant classic, should deserve much more than it will get from the Academy)
– ANOMALISA (unique little gem, classic Kaufman brilliance)
– PAN (clearly no Oscar-chance, basically Narnia redux with a hint of Oliver Twist, meaning it was a completely unnecessary origins story, still Joe Wright is a great director whose work I’ll support even if it is a misfire like this)
– CRIMSON PEAK (should be seriously considered in Art Direction and Costume Design, Chastain is also a standout and hopefully she’ll gain some traction because her Lady Lucille is cult-bound)
– THE WALK (the fantastic third act almost saved it, almost, visual effects nod could happen but I don’t think it will)
– THE INTERN (entertaining, weightless adult comedy with fine performances, may do well at the Globes)
– BEASTS OF NO NATION (it didn’t knock me out but it really was very, very good, Elba should be nominated no doubt and Attah deserves a fair shot at a nomination, as well)
Next up (next two weeks) : Spectre, Carol, Steve Jobs, Fathers and Daughters, the Lady in the Van
I don’t think Jennifer does nuance very well. Imagine how different Carol, Room or Brooklyn would be if she was the lead.
Based on her performances in Winter’s Bone and Silver Linings, they would be better movies if she was the lead…Jennifer Lawrence’s acting is very real and warm, while these actresses, even though they are great, their acting seems to be very mechanic, too constructed. Personally, it takes me out of the movie sometimes while Jennifer Lawrence never does.
Now you’re talking rubbish! In fact, what you’re describing is more like Lawrence’s acting style .
No…not rubbish. JK speaks the truth.
For calling yourself a feminist writer, isn’t it time you acknowledged the immense talent of Jennifer Lawrence? She’s doing well because she didn’t have the same competition as Julia Roberts? Really? Yes, it is important to acknowledge that if she looked like Lupita N’yongo or spoke like Salma Hayek, she wouldn’t be close to winning a second Oscar, but to continuously put her performance in *Silver Linings Playbook* (seriously, how many years are you going to spend trashing that performance?) while suggesting her only source of success is her looks and her non-threatening factor puts you in the same league as those who can only see women in terms of their looks, and worse, it puts you on the same league as women who can’t seem to support the success of women who have defied certain expectations. It must be so convenient to be a feminist sometimes, and to be whatever you are being in this post at others.
My only problem with JLaw winning for SLP is that she won for Lead with a Supporting role. A travesty.
Exactly.
The real travesty was Riva not being awarded the Oscar. JL won because of her popularity, and her last nomination was pretty much more of the same. Hopefully, this year’s brilliant group of deserving nominees don’t lose out for similar reasons.
I half-heatedly agree. I mean for performances like this, and for instance Amy Adams in “American Hustle”, I’ve heard good arguments for both placements; but sure. My issue is I can easily come up with ten(10) performances worthier leading performances from that most fecund of years–2011!
To me she should have won for Winter’s Bone and she totally deserved to win for Silver Linings Playbook. I mean it’s undeniable she stole that movie. Her performance in that is one of my all-time favorites.
I’m not sure what else I can do to prove to you fanatics that I admire her, support her, think she’s a good actress, praise her – have no ill will towards her. She is an immense talent. Agreed. I didn’t think she deserved to win for SLP. Sorry. Never will.
No one can ever seriouly think she deserved that Oscar Sasha 🙂
Except like the entire planet, all the Academy members and millions and millions of her fans (me included)…
I see it differently. To me, there are two things that are certain: that planet earth turns around the sun and that Jennifer Lawrence’s performance as Tiffany in Silver Linings Playbook was PERFECTION. I mean, those are elementary rules…
Sasha, do you really think that Best Actor is the most crowded and toughest race this year? I have the opposite impression, it seems so slim! Really, not close to the incredible race for Best Actress.
Best Actor, for me, is getting filled with performances that are only there because of the lack of other true contenders. I mean, if DiCaprio happens, he can easily win. His only other true rival would be Fassbender. But I have a feeling that not looking like Jobs will sort of block voters to vote for him to win it all. Redmayne is eclipsed by his co-star (and his reviews are not enough to get him a second Oscar in a row), Depp’s buzz seems to be decreasing very fast and his film looks average, Caine looks great but we never know if Youth will really happen. Will Smith is in a movie has that zero BP (or any other category) buzz. Matt Damon is an option, but I see him just as nomination (and not win) material. One actor that is flying very under the radar is Brad Pitt in By the Sea, by the trailer he looks good in a meaty role. Also, I think that a room can be open for the actor from Son of Saul and the one from Beasts of No Nation, if the Academy is open for the film.
Best Actress, however is so interesting right now. Cate Blanchett has 2 of her best performances ever (according to critics), Brie Larson looks like a tour de force. Jennifer Lawrence is always a threat. Saoirse Ronan is getting rave reviews and her film is just what the Oscars like. Charlotte Rampling is getting incredible reviews and IMO will win lots of awards from the critics, Carey Mulligan has a role and performance that always register with Oscar voters. Emily Blunt may happen, Veterans like Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith may get a push by SAG. Imagine what would happen in this category if Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander were campaigning here? No wonder why they changed to supporting.
Yes, I agree. Unlike recent years, there does not seem to be that many locks for Best Actor. Hanks, Redmayne, Damon are real maybes. DiCaprio seems likely but we haven’t seen the movie yet (and it may not even be something people ultimately like). And I also don’t see the evidence to show that Depp is going to be a major player. That leaves Fassbender as the sole lock right now (to my eyes). And that leaves plenty of room for Carell to campaign for a nom if the movie is well liked.
Best Actor seems to be in a “if Leo is good…” holding pattern until Revenant is released. If his performance is up to the level of his past work, I think he’s going to be a landslide winner since he’s already so overdue. If he or the film itself comes up short, however, Best Actor will suddenly be wide open. Could easily open the door someone like Carell to sneak in, as he’s very widely-liked and widely-respected in Hollywood and I can only presume he gives an excellent performance.
If I had to pick five now, I’d go DiCaprio, Fassbender, Redmayne, Cranston, Caine.
Cranston’s looks like a juicy role and he’s become a prestigious actor the Academy would be happy to nominate. Likewise, the Academy tends to go for roles that scream Oscar, hence Redmayne. And Caine because he’s Caine.
I think it started out that way but now that we’re in the thick of it it no longer seems that crowded. Funny, that.
Gustavo, what about Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies, Ian Mckellen in Holmes, Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Tom Hardy in Legend, Michael Fassbender in Macbeth, Don Cheadle in Miles (if they give it a limited release), and Jake Gylenhaal in Southpaw or Demolition.
I think Best Picture will be between Joy, The Revenant, Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs and Spotlight as major contenders…For Best Actor and Actress I see Leo or M. Fassbender and Jennifer Lawrence. Best Director is going to be between David O Russell, A. Innarritu and Tarantino…
Sasha, what makes you put Lily Tomlin in the Top 5 instead of a Charlotte Rampling (drool-worthy reviews, ‘never been nommed before’ narrative) or Maggie Smith (beloved, very well received, SPC studio)?
I thought Tomlin was great, but for whatever reason, I wasn’t really figuring on her getting much outside of an Indie Spirit or GG Comedy/Musical nod, if that. Do you think an early screener drop helps? Do you think SAG might go for her?
Gosh, Actress is so tough this year.
Yeah. It could change again. Right now I feel like Tomlin has more buzz but once 45 Years starts to get seen maybe it will swap out.
It will change. It never runs to early form. Like you don’t know that…
What the hell is The Big Short?
I’m not putting any faith in this film either.
When I first saw the trailer, I assumed it was some kind of joke. Now, I think it just looks like crap.
You are right. Jennifer Lawrence is the new Brando! This is her Oscar to lose…
If someone is getting an additional Oscar this year, I REALLY hope it’s Cate Blanchett, not Jennifer Lawrence or Eddie Redmayne.
Blanchett doesn’t deserve a third ahead of Brie Larson who delivered great work. Or somebody like Charlotte Rampling who’s delivering a knockout performance. A third Oscar for Blanchett would be too much. She’s good – yes, but to join Streep, Nicholson, Bergman. She’s not there. She’s not even the best thing about her film. I’m so glad Cannes got that one right and honored Mara.
Jennifer Lawrence CAN DO IT. 2nd Oscar is coming for her!
The trailer for Joy looks awful. It’s going to be hard for her to win a 2nd Oscar with this year’s crop of actresses.
Room and martian are not going to get any noms for best picture. For Sure.
Youngest 4-time oscar nominee is JENNIFER JONES at 27 years. To be hopefully replaced by JENNIFER LAWRENCE at 25 years. I am sure she will be really really proud.
Please don’t anoint Jennifer Lawrence a winner before you have even seen the film! It insults everyone’s intelligence, plus she’s not Brando (!). That is a comment that I don’t believe you have adequate evidence to support.
She is kind of becoming the Brando of her generation though. I love her. She is an inspiration for young actresses to look up to…
Oh No! Let’s not resort to saying crazy stuff like “J. Lawrence is becoming the next Brando”. She’s her own person and not at all on a similar trajectory as Brando was when he was in his prime. Unfortunately, that’s a good way to earn Lawrence backlash from people who know better – the opposite of what you seem to be going for.
She has contributed nothing as amazing as On the Waterfront or Streetcar in her young career. But she could! Just be patient and let her work speak for itself.
Love her as much as you’d like she’s not the Brando of her generation. She’s popular, she’s acting cool and hip and people go gaga, but she’s nowhere near Brando in terms of acting. Ronan who’s younger is a much better actor than Lawrence who’s adequate most of the time and solid at best.
Agreed. Not only is Jennifer Lawrence the Brando of her generation, but she is also the gutsiest actress in Hollywood.
I don’t see how people cannot bet on Carol. It’s one of the best reviewed films of the year (with a 95, #2 on Metacritic). The Oscars usually reserve a spot for the critic’s darling (e.g. Boyhood, Zero Dark Thirty, The Social Network).
I does seem pretty absurd. The reviews have been insanely good. Early mentions of it being ‘cold’ have gone away; many tweets/reviews mention specifically how warm it is. It has Weinstein. It will have support through many branches. Don’t get the hesitation. :/
But I love how Carol is flying under the radar. It’s always good to be the underdog this early. If Weinstein decides to give this film his priority (and not Hateful 8), I can see Carol winning it all.
I think HW is putting his might behind Hateful Eight. It is surprising that Carol seems to be slipping a bit.
Here’s hoping Sicario lands at least two nominations (although it deserves even more recognition): Benicio Del Toro and the transfixing Cinematography by Roger Deakins – hell, here’s hoping Deakins finally wins!
Agreed!!!!! Blunt would be nice, too. But I don’t see that one happening. She’d be lucky to get a GG or BAFTA mention. The year is just so strong for Lead Actress.
Yeah I was going to mention dear Emily. She could be a solid pick. Good filmography behind her and reputation / likability too – could all get behind her for this.
Kris Tapley over at Variety has Del Toro getting a nomination for Best Supporting Actor and Deakins getting a nomination for Best Cinematography. Sasha should see it again!! ; )
From everything I’ve read and heard, Mad Max seems to be the frontrunner for Best Film Editing, I would add that to the predictions.
Certainly I’m having a hard time imagining any film will have better editing this year. It’s so perfectly constructed.
I just watched Love & Mercy last night and WOW. Dano was flat out amazing. Banks was very good but I can’t say if she deserves a nomination because I need to see the others in contention…but Dano just blew me away. If it comes away with 2 nominations…just 2…I’m hoping it’d be for Dano and the brilliant, genius sound mixing.
I would love to see Charlotte Rampling receive her 1st Best Actress nomination for 45 Years.
That she hasn’t received a nom over the course of her career is a wow-er.
How about Jennifer Jason Leigh? It’s pretty crazy that she hasn’t received a nomination either.
I hope that she’s awesome in the Hateful Eight – a kickass, take no prisoners b* that Tarantino consistently delivers. The Academy almost never likes it (poor Pam Grier), but they fall all over themselves for the men in his films (Travolta, Jackson, Forster, Waltz x2). I think only Thurman has been nominated (deservedly) for Pulp Fiction.
That Rampling wasn’t nominated for The Verdict is just about shameful, except 1982 is one of the strongest years ever for Best Supporting Actress.
Oh, I know. She was so good in “The Verdict”.
I also loved her performance in Woody Allen’s very underrated 1980 film, “Stardust Memories”. The critics butchered this film . . . but I think it is one of Allen’s very best. And largely because of Charlotte Rampling’s performance in it. She’s devastating.
Everyone still sleeping on Carol. IDGI!!!!!!
Also: take it to the bank that Vikander will be nominated in Lead not Supporting, regardless of the campaign.
In that case, so will Mara, she`s even more of a lead than Vikander.
I keep getting a feeling that voters will go for Mara in lead (even with the Supporting campaign). But while Vikander also seems to be Lead, I think voters might just stick with the Supporting campaign for her; she’s new, fresh … all a hallmark of an initial Supporting type-nod … reminding me of Jessica Chastain’s break-out year.
I have also the same feeling. And especially that Cate Blanchett will be nominated for Truth. I mean, i just keep reading about how electrifying and amazing she was. Come on Academy!! Imagine Larson, Mara, Blanchett, Ronan and Tomlin or Rampling for best actress!!
whats with all these back handed compliments about jennifer lawrence sasha? sounds like you are not a fan. i think she was great in silver linings playbook. sure she was there to add to a mans story, but she stole the movie anyway. i think she is a rare talent and i only came around to that line of thinking this year. talent is talent. i salute jennifer. and in david o russell she has found her soul mate director, the way de niro had scorsese,diane keaton had woody allen, etc. that is very imortant in having an artistically fulfilling career.
her competion back then was jessica chastain. i love jessica chastain equally but that was not a great performance in zero dark 30. she barely did anything. i think she shuld have an oscar by now but not for zero dark 30 which was more a directors showcase.
i can see emaanuel riva as desrving of jennifers oscar but hey, you dont always have to have the best performance to win, though jennifer certainly had a great performance.
the line about kissing frogs was great though. thats was funny.
??? Other than the minor quip on her SLP performance Sasha was praising Lawrence. That 2nd paragraph is a gigantic appreciation to Lawrence and her work.
I’m completely in her corner. I think she’s great. I didn’t think she should have won for Silver Linings, however. As I made clear at the time. But hell, she’s fantastic, are you kidding?
I agree. It’s sad that she DID win for SLP {ugh}, because I also think she seems to be a great young woman and is a talented young actress, for sure.
lol seriously you’ve been talking about how excited you are for Joy all year …. Riva should of course have won, but I still love her performance in SLP .. if anything I’m upset that she won not because Riva lost – we all know it was Riva’s that was the best anyways – but because it’s just resulted in so much backlash and hate against SLP and her performance …
Jennifer deserved it completely.She was completely snubbed for winters bone n gave us an amazing katniss everdeen. It was paytime.The week after the oscars was statistically the best in oscars history solely becoz of the amount of news she made. The girl is the most authentic thing to have happened to this industry.EVER.
Ew
Absolutely!. The Oscars last year was a total snoozefest…Jennifer Lawrence was missed last year.
Here’s to Jennifer Lawrence livening up the 2015/16 Oscar season and kicking ass!.
Come on! We all know that she only won for Silver Linings Playback because of HARVEY WEINSTEIN.
She SHOULD have won for American Hustle, now that is deserving! If only she didn’t won the previous year.
Go get’em Jennifer Lawrence/JOY!!.
Going to be interesting to see what film you will be rooting for Ms Stone. Will it be male or female driven?
Brie Larson is trying too hard? Yeah, Jennifer Lawrence isn’t campaigning because she has already done some extremly “annoying” campaigning for an Oscar, especially for Silver Linings Playbook. I do not know who wins but Brie certainly deserves that nom. Jennifer Lawrence has been “trying too hard” and certainly “annoying” too.
For SLP maybe. But for AH she didn’t campaign at all. Anyway I’m talking about this year and this year Larson is annoying as hell. Saoirse would be my first choice but if the only one who can beat Larson is JLaw I’m rooting for her.
Calm down please.Trolls are always there, we don’t have to be them.
Annoying? Are you talking about Jennifer Lawrence aka the coolest human being on the planet? Again, she doesn’t need Oscars, it’s the Oscars that desperately need her…Look at last year’s Oscars. They were terrible without her.
If it’s JLaw vs. Brie Larson GO JENNIFER! Larson is trying too hard. Annoying.
How is Larson annoying? How do you focus on somebody that much that they can be annoying to you?
I follow her on Twitter, that’s all. I like her as an actress, I don’t like her attitude. But it’s just me, no matter. I’m not rooting for her but if she wins I’ll be congratulating.
Come on dear, We haven’t even seen jen yet. No need to badmouth other people. Jen is already the most successful actor or actress ever for her age. If she deserves it there is nobody stopping her. People in the academy love her. So we don’t need this negative campaigning.
I hate to say this. But I’m wondering if Brie Larson can WIN (here’s hoping she gets the nod, first & foremost), because seriously, no one knows who she is. We “movie” people know her by name. We know her filmography. But many people will barely remember her face from any movie, no less her name. I wonder if AMPAS might feel similarly. I dunno.