When looking back over the movies of 2015, it’s hard not to notice the women. It’s also bittersweet, given that it’s been a great year for white actresses, not so much for any lead actress of color. Still, it would be narrow-minded to punish the success of the women who have prevailed this year because Hollywood is still so backwards in regard to women overall, but especially women of color. One open door leads to another. One closed door leads nowhere. Halle Berry still being the only black woman to win Best Actress in 88 years of Oscar history is a stain on that history. But I’m not writing that story, partly because I’ve been writing it for ten years. This is a different story, one where the Best Actress field is crowded – so crowded that several lead performances have spilled over into the supporting category.
Best Actress is so crowded, in fact, that many great performances will go unrecognized. Those who want a spot in the top five will have to campaign hard. Only a few will get there on the basis of performance alone. To secure a space in the Best Actress lineup this year especially, but really any year, here is what a contender needs to secure a nomination:
- A great performance. It goes without saying. Star power alone can get you close, but in a competitive year the performance has to be one that resonates.
- A likable character or a loathsome one. You can’t really be in between. They love you or they love hating you. Most of the time, where women are concerned, loving you is better than loving to hate you but if your whole career has been built on likable roles, playing a complex or broken down character can help.
- You must be known among actors as an actor’s actor. It always helps to be theater trained. Being likable and popular goes a long way. Votes often accumulate because people “like” you, more than they do by simply acknowledging your brilliant work. When Marion Cotillard was up for La Vie En Rose she had the performance but she had to make sure people knew her and knew that she was fluent in English.
- You go to everything. It is like being a politician already. Sad, but true. It would be nice if you could sit back and wait for a nomination. Look at how early Julianne Moore was out there last year. She made it clear beyond any doubt that she was in it to win it. Brie Larson, Rooney Mara, Saoirse Ronan, Cate Blanchett, Carey Mulligan are all out there doing stuff. That gives them the edge.
- Star in a likable film, and all the better if it’s a Best Picture contender. This isn’t an unbreakable rule like it is for Best Actor but it never hurts. Brie Larson, Cate Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan, and perhaps Jennifer Lawrence will have the edge because it’s expected their films will or could enter the Best Picture race. This hurts other contenders whose films are not as well liked or else will have no chance to get anywhere near Best Picture — the caveat here is if the actress is a veteran. Vets can overcome much of the stuff newbies cannot. Lily Tomlin, Charlotte Rampling, Maggie Smith and Blythe Danner are already so entrenched in Hollywood they don’t really need to campaign much.
When it comes to winning, things are a little more tricky. Securing a nomination will probably be good enough for those who are winners already, like Jennifer Lawrence (who could win her second), like Cate Blanchett. Winning a second Oscar is harder than winning a first Oscar. Here are the five rules for winning.
- You are in it to win it. Even Meryl Streep when she went for it with The Iron Lady, Kate Winslet for The Reader, Julianne Moore for Still Alice – they went everywhere. Streep even went to the AARP. The last thing they did was sit on it, wait it out and hope they might win on merit alone. Yeah, no. Doesn’t happen like that for women; not anymore. That’s probably because picking a winner is hard, especially when there are various reasons for picking one. It could be because they gave the best performance period (Charlize Theron for Monster, Natalie Portman for Black Swan) or it could be they are making history as the first black woman to win (Halle Berry, Monsters Ball) or it could be because they’ve been nominated so many times and never won before, even if this isn’t their best work (Kate Winslet, Julianne Moore) – you might be a commercially successful actress whose opportunity to be rewarded has finally arrived (Sandra Bullock, Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon). Either way, it seems like showing voters that you want to win, that you are willing to fight for your win, does appear to give contenders an edge. You can’t go overboard, though, and look desperate. You have to be easy breezy cover girl about it. Smile, look like you’re having a great time. Have fun – make jokes. That’s probably why previous winners like Charlize Theron, Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence aren’t appearing to make such a strenuous reach for it this year. They’ve already won so they aren’t as hungry, plus it’s unseemly to look that greedy.
- Be overdue for a win. This can be upset by a more likable contender – like Hilary Swank besting Annette Bening (twice). But if the horizon is clear for a win and there’s no upstart in your way, you can go for it free and clear. A lot of Best Actress Oscars have been won by women regarded as overdue, legends who inspired an essential urge for voters to vote. Any Oscar win has to come with that urgency to reward when the right moment arrives, either out of sheer love for the character, the actress, or the film.
- Don’t have a recent Oscar victory. Hilary Swank and Jodie Foster are two of the few who won Oscars in fairly close secession. Swank in 1999 and 2004, Foster in 1988 and 1991. How do you get your second Oscar if you’re not Sally Field? Star in a Best Picture winner, as Swank did with Million Dollar Baby and Foster did with Silence of the Lambs. That would be the precedent for a Jennifer Lawrence win – if Joy won Best Picture and swept up Jennifer along with it.
- Win at least one major precursor, preferably one on television where lots of people see how might look onstage on Oscar Night. It always helps to win critics awards but there is simply nothing like having that moment in front of the mic to seal the deal. People like to like seeing someone win. That’s harder for women because being liked is harder for women overall – with other women, with the fickle public, with men.
- Sex it up. I hate to say it but there is always that one photo shoot that lays out a contender in it to win it as if she’s a delicacy on a deli platter. Meryl Streep was probably one who never had to do this. The steak eaters in the Academy (who aren’t actors) like the sexy young ones. It always helps to put yourself in a position that helps them along with their fantasy. It’s yucky but sadly part of the job — at least now they only have to do photo shoots. They don’t have to sleep with people to get work. This year, there is one contender who probably won’t have to and could win anyway – and that’s Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn.
The Frontrunners
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s look at the year’s top contenders for Best Actress.
Brie Larson in Room – Larson is the one to beat this year for many reasons. The biggest reason is that Room is so likable and it’s only partly likable because of the kid, Jacob Tremblay. Like she did in her breakout performance in Short Term 12, Larson is an actress you can’t take your eyes of off. She always keeps you guessing where her character might go next. Her performance in Room is an actor’s dream because she is given a chance to showcase all that she can do. She is so many things at once in the film – a loving mother, an angry mother, a victim, a fighter, a petulant teenager whose best years have been taken from her. Among many scenes in the film that resonate is when she’s being challenged on whether she did the right thing keeping her son with her all of those years. “I’m his mom,” she says. Maybe you have to be a mother to really feel that scene but she says it both defiantly and with a hint of doubt. That Larson is not actually a mother makes her conviction all the more remarkable. She is the frontrunner to win because she’s great in the role, she is everywhere doing publicity and is going to star in a strong Best Picture contender.
Jennifer Lawrence in Joy– Lawrence has to be considered a frontrunner too because of who she is and what Joy is. It’s an entire film centered around her, and will be — all signs seem to indicate — her most challenging role to date. Lawrence defies all the rules in Hollywood and couldn’t be more powerful. If she won her second Oscar before the age of 30 no one would be that surprised. David O. Russell is also overdue for a big win. Joy could be that win. It could take them all with it. The only problem for Lawrence is that she’s won before, just three years ago. She’s also not doing that much campaigning yet. She’s out there but she’s out there (for the time being) for The Hunger Games. She is smart when it comes to managing her rise to fame – she knows that she doesn’t want to overplay her hand. Trying to stampede through to a win for Joy would seem too much like an overplay. I suspect she’s going to wait it out and see how it goes. She is a big enough star that she can afford to wait it out.
The Challengers
Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn. Ronan is quietly the biggest threat to the top two actresses. The reason being it’s impossible to watch Brooklyn and not fall madly in love with her. More than that, you want to root for her. It is a positive vote for a positive character. It will depend on how Brooklyn does overall. If it comes in with more nominations than Room – which it might, considering all of its design elements – Ronan could suddenly be a force to be reckoned with. The entire film is about her. She transforms from shy, withdrawn Irish immigrant to confident, assured American. It’s quite a thing of beauty, this performance.
Cate Blanchett in Carol. Since Blanchett won so recently, there isn’t much of a chance she will win again so soon. But she gave two great performances this year with this, and her work in Truth – which sadly was killed by controversy before it had a chance to really fly. This is another one of those situations that will depend on how much the Academy likes the film overall. Rooney Mara is the Carol co-star who has the better shot at winning in the supporting category, and would have about the same chance in lead as Blanchett has. Dividing them gives the film two nominations. Putting them both in Best Actress means one at the most but a good chance they would cancel each other out and neither would get in. Blanchett is wonderful in Carol — it’s such a luscious, beautiful, moving film overall that it’s hard to imagine this year without a Blanchett nomination, whether or not she can win.
Carey Mulligan in Suffragette – this is probably a long shot at the moment, given that Suffragette is struggling with critics and audiences, not to mention the brutal attack by the politically correct police (don’t even get me started). Still, she seems like a sure bet for a nomination, at least, rounding out the five. In the early days, she seemed like a threat to win her first Oscar but perhaps she might have to wait on that.
The Darkhorse
Maggie Smith in Lady in the Van – if she is nominated – and right now, it’s a big if, she is already so well liked and truly gives the performance of a lifetime in Lady in the Van – which, considering it’s Maggie Smith is saying a lot. While Charlotte Rampling in 45 years, Lily Tomlin in Grandma and Blythe Danner in I’ll See You in My Dreams have each delivered career best work at the end of their careers, it is only Maggie Smith — well liked across the board by the actors — who seems like a threat to win. She’s been nominated six times – won once for supporting and once for lead but hasn’t won since 1979. Still, she’ll have to bump Carey Mulligan in Suffragette – who is doing a heroic thing by campaigning on the heels of giving birth.
On the Fringe
Just outside the top five sit many brilliant performances that may or may not get in, but will ultimately have a hard time getting in depending on how much the Academy likes their films overall. And those would be:
Charlie Theron – if there has been one iconic performance this year it’s Theron as Furiosa in Mad Max: Fury Road. What a great performance by a great actress who really is the most compelling actor in the film. The Oscar fate of Mad Max is not yet known. Some of us are still predicting it gets in for Best Picture, with George Miller possibly getting a nomination as well. While others think its time has passed and might only earn tech nods. It really feels up in the air and will depend on how much people appreciate Miller’s efforts to preserve the integrity of practical visual effects, working with real actors and his groundbreaking feminist take on this durable, flexible franchise.
Emily Blunt in Sicario – the same goes for Blunt. Sicario’s fate is also not know in the Academy. I heard from one director who said it was his favorite film of the year but that doesn’t mean she will be able to pierce the top five or topple the bigger names and vets who stand in her way. Still, Blunt is one of the very best things about Sicario.
Regina Case in The Second Mother – what a brilliant performance this is. It would take many critics standing behind her to get this performance some attention, enough to topple the big name stars in the category. But in a very white year for women, Case stand out. The Second Mother is one of the best reviewed films of the year and it’s yet another example of the broad range of films about women this year that are driving the narrative.
Probably Not This Time
Amy Schumer in Trainwreck – it’s simply too competitive a year to break in. Schumer really did change the game with this film, and should be remembered, at least by the Broadcast Film Critics and the Golden Globes. Hopefully the writers branch will honor her with a screenplay nomination. Best Actress, though, is probably off the table.
Kitana Kiki Rodriguez for Tangerine – it isn’t even the “first transgender actress” that will hold Rodriquez back but rather the sheer competitiveness of the race and how hard it will be for any film not widely seen to get attention. That said, should she earn one critics’ award after another it might happen.
Sandra Bullock for Our Brand is Crisis – she might have had a shot but the critics killed it dead. Also, there isn’t any wiggle room in the category.
The Best Actress category has not been this interesting in a long while. Along with films like Mad Max: Fury Road, Trainwreck and maybe Joy soon topping the box office, Star Wars will give us another dramatic shift back to a strong female protagonist. With four movies about women almost certainly heading into the Best Picture race – Carol, Brooklyn, Room and Joy – this could be a record breaking year for the Academy. The last time there were four Best Picture contenders starring women? You have to go back to 1977, when the first Star Wars opened. You had: Annie Hall, The Goodbye Girl, Julia and The Turning Point. That’s how rare of a year this might turn out to be.
Even when you look beyond the Oscar contenders you see an array of performances that are worthy of attention, like Juliette Binoche in The Clouds of Sils Maria, like Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back, like Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina. It’s an embarrassment of riches, that’s what it is. What we’re shooting for next time is a more colorful one.
Predictions
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
4. Cate Blanchett, Carol
5. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
6. Maggie Smith, the Lady in the Van
7. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
8. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
10. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in My Dreams
All but Brie Larson are merely doing their duty/contractual obligations of promoting their films. Brie Larson has done more since she needs to firmly establish herself in the nominee-winner conversation. The other names are previous Oscar nominees and winners, she isn’t.
As much as I love Mulligan, I have a feeling she will be left out of the race. It seemed a given early on, and I haven’t seen the film yet, so I can’t judge, but the critics – including female reviewers – have been respectful, but underwhelmed. I don’t know if she can overcome that with the likes of dark horses like Tomlin, Rampling, Ronan, Vikander etc…and sure things like Lawrence, Smith, Blanchett. I also wonder if her early visibility on the Oscar campaign circuit might affect her chances. I remember when she was nominated for An Education, and although she was a presence, she seemed to be removed from the Oscar campaign hyperbole and I loved her more for it. She seems to be going all out for this one and that might go against her by December.
I’d agree that Larson and Ronan are locks. But let’s say – after all the hype and high expectations – “Joy” lands with a thud and suddenly Lawrence is out of the equation. Blanchett and Mulligan would remain contenders but I’d guess either one could easily lose her slot. Opening it up for a couple of the vets. I expect year-end critical awards to light a fire under Rampling’s prospects. And I think she’s got a real shot at a nomination. But I’m really hoping Blythe Danner gets in too. I just loved that beautiful performance. My favorite of the year so far. With Larson and Ronan immovably entrenched at this point, I’d say the ideal trio to round out the nominees would be Mulligan, Rampling and Danner.
How to narrow down to just five? Very simple. That’s how:
1. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
2. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Are you five?
I think it’s going to be between Jennifer Lawrence and Brie Larson. But I’m not going to lie, I would really like to see Jennifer Lawrence win her second Oscar, I think she deserves it. This year she was sensational in Mockingjay Part 2, maybe the best HG movie yet and is going to be a big hit AND she is also front and center in JOY! She should be recognized (also for her performances in the Hunger Games)!
Best Actress is easy. My Top 5 :
1. Jennifer Lawrence “Joy”
2. Brie Larson “Room”
3. Cate Blanchett “Carol”
4. Charlotte Rampling “45 Years”
5. Saoirse Ronan “Brooklyn”
Lack of WOC come Oscar season is a big issue for me. I can only hope it changes soon.
This race is already much more exciting than last year because it is still wide open. Bullock is doa due to bad reviews and the movie flopped. Schumer seems to be campaigning for something. Larson and Ronan I’d be happy to see get recognition because they have been consistently overlooked. I still hesitate to put them as locks because a lot of factors go into getting an Oscar nomination. Rampling has been great for so long. I don’t have much faith in this being the year Oscar voters notice. If there is a veteran spot I think Danner and Tomlin have the edge. As a previous winner in a well reviewed movie, Theron can’t be counted out either.
Have you seen the reviews Larson and Ronan are getting. Just amazing!
I think if any can be considered locks, it would have to be those two.
Yes I have but reviews alone don’t guarantee anything. With Larson I thought for sure she would be Oscar nominated for Short Term 12 and then it didn’t happen. I’m crossing my fingers for this time to be different. Ronan is 21- the only recent non Americans I remember being nominated that young are Knightley and Mulligan. Good opening box office for Brooklyn would help. If this year was not so competitive I would have both as locks.
Ronan has history, albeit best supporting actress, and she has a fantastic pedigree. She’s worked with quite a few top-notch directors.
I would so love for Theron to get in–not just because it’s recognition for a film I love but for a kind of character we need to see more of.
Rodriguez would be nice to see as well, but I actually thought Mya Taylor gave the stronger performance (though given the state of Supporting Actress she might get in).
After mulling it over in my head, I have whittled down my top 5. Here’s my dream list come next year for nominated Best Actress:
Maggie Smith – The Van Lady
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Carrie Mulligan – Far From The Madding Crowd (she was wonderful in this movie)
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
There. I know it won’t happen, but dream lists are just that . . . dreams. But if even a couple of these fine actresses make it in, I’ll be happy. Especially Rampling, who has NEVER been nominated. It’s about time AMPAS.
P.S. – I really enjoyed your article on this Sasha. It’s especially true about what you say about being visible and promoting your film. I can’t think of anyone recently who has won an acting Oscar who wasn’t out there promoting his/her film.
Following the tributes in London and MoMA , according to Variety magazine, Blanchett is going to receive a Palm Film Festival award for her performances in Carol and Truth.
Mulligan is the shakiest. Rampling could get in like Cotillard last year via the critics and voters saying – you have to watch this performance. Tomlin has the advantage of being singled out in the comedy section of the Golden Globes and could have enough goodwill (back in the spotlight with Emmy nominated Grace and Frankie) to get in with SAG too.
“When looking back over the movies…it’s hard not to notice the women.”
My my Sasha, I bet you thought you’d never say those words. Grand. Loved reading this too.
“Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina”
I quote this just because my heart told me to.
And what about Cynthia Nixon and Christopher Abbott in “James White”. 2 remarkable Performances in an Outstanding Movie! Why does no one takes notice of them?
Right now i think – like the most – the nominees will be:
Brie Larson “Room” (Predicted Winner)
Cate Blanchett “Carol”
Jennifer Lawrence “Joy”
Saoirse Ronan “Brooklyn”
Carey Mulligan “Suffrugate”
Alt.
Charlotte Rampling “45 Years”
Lilly Tomlin “Grandma”
Emily Blunt “Sicario”
My personal favourites are:
Brie Larson “Room”
Cate Blanchett “Carol”
Ulrike Beimpold “Superwelt”
Charlotte Rampling “45 Years”
Emannuelle Bercot “Mon Roi”
“she’ll have to bump Carey Mulligan in Suffragette – who is doing a heroic thing by campaigning on the heels of giving birth.”
I fail to see what’s HEROIC about campaigning for the Oscars? Sorry, I truly do. The heroic thing would be to stay back home, take good care of her daughter, and say: SCREW you to the madness that is Awards Season.
Beaux:
“And Cate Blanchett… she does the most difficult thing: she expresses
every feeling with a single glance or a small gesture in “Carol”, the
most beautiful and necessary film of the year due to its social
relevance (and the best film too). Her work is like a japanese haiku:
simple, delicate and minimal”
OMG. I am so looking forward to watch her! And Beaux, your short review is astonishing!!
I saw Suffragette over the weekend, and although I thought it was suburb filmmaking and acting, I can’t say Carrie Mulligan gave an Oscar winning performance. Mine was one of the loudest voices screaming in agony when Jennifer Lawrence won for Silver Linings Playbook (Emmanual Riva was robbed!), and I can’t say that I’m keen on her winning a second Oscar so soon. I’m gratified to see Saorise Ronan’s buzz growing, but I’m reading Brooklyn now and it isn’t exactly a page-turner; I suspect it makes a better film than a novel. This category is still up in the air but much more exciting than it has been in recent memory.
Jennifer Lawrence not only deserved to win for Silver Linings Playbook, but she was also robbed for Winter’s Bone and many would argue American Hustle (even though I am happy for Lupita)…
Best Actress seems easy. 4 locked spots: Larsen, Lawrence, Ronan, and Blanchett
And one wildcard spot for Tomlinson, Rampling, Mulligan, etc.
One thing that is interesting is that Maggie Smith just made her first talk show appearance in over 40 years:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKqnmnMxMHA
It is an absolute home run. If she does more like this (which is doubtful) it could help
I don’t think Larson will be nominated.
I think so far the nominees will be:
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Rooney Mara, Carol
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Fifth slot…
I don’t know whose nickname that’s supposed to be, but it’s pretty rude.
I don’t know what you mean… which nickname is rude?
I was joking.
Larson is definitely in. Her and the film = Pike and Gone Girl in this year’s race. Everyone is going to expect that Room is a factor in a ton of categories, and a Best Picture contender, until nomination day when Larson is the only nominee for the film. And people will blame it on a bunch of things that aren’t “actually we were wrong to think it could ever happen.” And many are going to think, like they did with Pike, that Larson is a frontrunner to win, but no. She’s not. A frontrunner to be nominated is not the same thing as being a frontrunner to win.
I don’t know about you but I’ve NEVER read or heard anyone say that Pike was the frontrunner to win last year.
no, it was clearly always going to be Moore. My wording is off. By frontrunner I meant the likely 2nd place finisher lol. I think she was no higher than 3rd. But we’ll never know.
I tend to think that if Dame Maggie Smith is in the race, she wins the race. But I haven’t seen almost any of these films. Otherwise, my vibes tell me Larson because I can’t see them going for Blanchett or Lawrence again if there are worthy people who are Oscar deficient.
I saw OUR BRAND IS CRISIS. I thought it was a good movie with a good message that the people who should see it probably don’t want to hear. But there was nothing there in terms of acting challenges for anyone. I can see Blunt getting a cumulative nomination as encouragement to keep up the good work. As much as the trailers for MACBETH seem blah, I await another magnificent performance from the otherworldly Mme. Cotillard.
Marion Cotillard Macbeth!!!!
category fraud on the part of the screenwriter IMO!!!! Lady Macbeth should not come off as a supporting character. ever.
Why is Alicia Vikander continually kept off such possible nominee lists and out of such articles as this for her work in EX MACHINA? The movie was very well reviewed (92% at RottenTomatoes.com), made a lot of money for an arthouse hit (almost $40 million worldwide on a $15 million budget), and was the first vehicle that broke her out this year. And you were a big champion of that movie too, Sasha. Wouldn’t it help the discussion, since most of this is still really just speculation, to use this forum to champion someone like her in that role? Is the drumbeat that she’s going to win Best Supporting Actress really that strong right now for THE DANISH GIRL? Is it so strong that her work in EX MACHINA for lead cannot even enter the conversation? And if THE DANISH GIRL bombs with audiences will her chances diminish there as quickly as Oscar pundits have abandoned all the good will for a movie like STEVE JOBS because it didn’t light up the box office? I believe it would be a good thing since this is all guessing at this juncture, that you’d use your esteemed position to not just predict the horse race but to champion as many worthy candidates as strongly as possible. And her performance in EX MACHINA should be in the consideration set for all the reasons I stated. Including your enthusiasm for her in it. Especially over someone like Sandra Bullock whom you listed for a movie that got really bad reviews, and bombed in its opening past weekend.
Ex Machina is the Under the Skin of 2015. It’s a good film and a lot of people respect it/like it, but it is NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN.
It’s such a competitive year that I hope Vikander and Mara stay in supporting.
Category fraud should not be rewarded. If they go supporting I hope they get snubbed.
Of course I agree. I just want Ronan to get in and I feel like Vikander can knock her out if she’s moved to lead.
No way, Ronan is locked. Vikander moved to lead would knock out Mulligan or whoever could land in that fifth spot.
Look, if the Academy cared about “category fraud” then like they do in almost every other category, they’d change the rules to prevent it. But they don’t care. You shouldn’t either.
I know they don’t care but I do. It’s about fair play.
but if we’re going to talk about “fair play” then we should talk about getting rid of campaigning altogether, right? You can’t allow studios to campaign for something and expect them not to campaign in ways most advantageous for their films and their stars.
On second though, I think the Academy *does* care about curtailing category fraud and *does* care about fair play in this regard–ballots don’t provide any direction to voters about where a performance should be placed, or where it is campaigned or where it is eligible. Voters decide where to nominate actors.
The problem and responsibility, truly, is in the hands of precursors that either adhere to or don’t adhere to the campaign strategies when selecting their own nominees & winners. If enough precursors put Mara and Vikander in lead this year then a majority of Oscar voters will have already seen those performances labeled as such and are more likely to place them there. If they continue to be nominated as supporting, can you really fault Oscar voters for following?
The Academy is responsible for the whole nominations’ process. It’s up to them to avoid category fraud and it wouldn’t be impossible to do.
Solution 1:(Pre-filter) Give voters a shortlist of candidates specifying who runs for what.
Solution 2: (Post-filter) Nullify every vote fomenting category
fraud.
Allowing studios to campaign does not equal allowing them to
break the rules. In boxing I’m sure it would be more advantageous for
an heavyweight to fight a lightweight rather than another heavyweight
but it’s forbidden. And there’s a reason why. The same reason for
which category fraud should not be allowed in the Oscar race.
I hope Ronan and Larson cancel each other (both in the little indie slot) so that JLaw can easily win.
Ew
Dream on!
It’s not a popularity contest, it’s an acting award.
If it were just an acting award there would be no need to campaign.
How true!
But it’s a long run-in, and unlike last year, there’s no front-runner galloping away with the race. This year, it’s likely to be a well placed contender who comes out of the pack and sprints to the winning post.
Why would you want Lawrence to win? Unless you have seen Joy.
No, I haven’t. But I’ve seen Room and I don’t want Larson to win. I think JLaw is the only one who can upset her. That’s all.
People that have seen Joy are saying that she is exceptional and it may be the best performance of her career so far, so…
Anyone rn doubting Charlotte Rampling is due a serious shock come awards season. She’ll be a prominent fixture with the critics awards, and 45 Years is right up both the American and British Academy’s respective (similar) streets. My girl could even win the BAFTA. Pay attention to this film, and particularly to this performance. There’ll be some major bother if she doesn’t get the nomination.
I so love this actress. She’s very underrated. I loved her in an Australian film she made with Judy Davis a couple years ago called “Eye of the Storm”. Try to catch it sometime if you’re so inclined.
Yes indeed, that was some film. All the performances in it were superb but Rampling was mesmerising.
lol I saw Eye of the Storm at the time and rather hated it! But agreed, Charlotte Rampling is a very fine actor, and 45 Years is perhaps her best work. A true screen icon!
I have to say that I’m quite fed up with all this Jennifer Lawrence early buzz. From the trailer, I can only see a very young actress having fun playing an older woman (as she did in American Hustle) and the film itself looks like “Silver Linings Playbook 2”. Everything in “Joy” looks like a constant déja vu and Lawrence looks fake to me. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I feel that “Joy” could be the biggest flop of the season (and I hope so, because David O’Russell is not the world’s belly button).
I think that the competition will be between Saoirse Ronan, Brie Larson and Cate Blanchett:
Saoirse Ronan shines in every shot of “Brooklyn”, showing a magnetism that only a few actress have. As Sasha said before, it’s difficult not to fall in love with her after seeing her character’s evolution.
Brie Larson has a very dramatic and difficult role to play. She shows a full spectrum of emotions. If she wins (alongside Jacob Tremblay as a supporting actor), this year will remind me of 1993, when Holly Hunter and Anna Paquin had recognition for “The Piano”, another history about a mother and her child.
And Cate Blanchett… she does the most difficult thing: she expresses every feeling with a single glance or a small gesture in “Carol”, the most beautiful and necessary film of the year due to its social relevance (and the best film too). Her work is like a japanese haiku: simple, delicate and minimal.
Everything you wrote about Cate Blanchett. Fucking gospel truth henny
yasss go off
You are saying all this based on a trailer…Wait to see JOY! I have seen Room and I thought Larson was good but nothing special. From what I’ve seen of Carol, Cate Blanchett seems to play the same character over and over, I’m sorry but her performances do nothing for me as they seem so constructed that they come out as fake. Everything you say about Lawrence (without having seen the movie) can be said about all these actresses. Again, acting is subjective but at least wait to see Joy.
I’d far rather see Rampling in the ‘Challengers’ field than Mulligan. Mulligan is on screen for much of Suffragette but she simply doesn’t do enough to earn herself Oscar recognition. Rampling on the other hand gives a performance that gets right inside you. She’s a true, proven actress and deserves at least a nomination.
I’d been looking forward to seeing Sicario and eventually caught up with it the other day. Unfortunately I was distinctly underwhelmed – both by the film itself ( a poor man’s Zero Dark Thirty) and by Emily Blunt’s performance. Normally I find Blunt pretty impressive as an actress but there is very little character development here. What did they say about Katherine Hepburn (or did she say it about someone else?) – ‘She displayed the full range of emotion from A to B’. Well Blunt isn’t as limited as that, however she doesn’t get much beyond G in this film. Benicia Del Toro gives the standout performance.
In better world, Theron would trump Mulligan in a heartbeat and run her over with the War Rig. Her performance and movie are sensational and do everything that Mulligan and her pitiful message flick are trying and fail miserably. Theron’s Furiosa is a character, a person. Mulligan in Suffragette is just a pamphlet.
Your boorish, obnoxious sexism rears its saggy little outmoded head once more. Sad you’ve been so prolific here of late. Don’t you have some real-life harassing to do?
Suffragette is an awful movie that needs to be taken off all prediction lists and make room for worthy movies. Fury Road is one of them. It showed Suffragette how women’s rights movie is done. There. You can sulk in the corner cause Miller thought Gavron a lesson in directing real feminist movie.
I’m not going to sulk in a corner because some cranky misogynist told me to. You obviously can’t help yourself from slinging some sort of criticism or insult in the direction of one woman or another when the opportunity presents itself. Your attitude toward women is altogether sickening, as you’ve proven not only in your comments here but in your comments elsewhere also. Fucking disgrace.
Woman directed a misfire and I have no intention to give her a pass just because woman. The movie is bad and you know it and the fact that woman-directed feminist movie couldn’t get better reviews despite critics obviously holding back for PC reasons says it all. OTOH, Miller schooled the lady how its done and therefore deserves support. Especially since his movie, despite reviews of the year, has uphill battle cause sci fi. In unperfect world, mediocre message movie with SJW-friendly narrative (woman directs feminist movement) is still in awards conversation while a phenomenal movie that happens to be genre is getting “not AMPAS thing”, “Tough sell”, etc resignation mentions. Screw that.
‘The movie is bad and you know it’
I don’t know it, no. I thought it was pretty good.
‘the fact that woman-directed feminist movie couldn’t get better reviews despite critics obviously holding back for PC reasons says it all.’
If you wanna look at it from that angle, I’m pretty sure it’d seem that way. But I expect you’d have to be pretty fucking cynical about the legitimacy of the feminist movement in order to even consider such a response.
‘a phenomenal movie that happens to be genre is getting “not AMPAS thing”, “Tough sell”, etc resignation mentions.’
But it’s true: Mad Max just isn’t AMPAS’ thing. But I’d bet you plenty of money it’ll get more Oscar nominations than Suffragette does. Just because it deserves more, though, doesn’t give anyone an excuse to be a petty misogynist.
You’ve come onto a post about great work done by women in film this year to attack one of the most important female-driven films of the year. Have you utterly no shame?
Have you no shame? Importance =/= artistic merit. Stop mixing up the two. Suffragette is mediocrity and no amount of importance should buy it nominations. There. And the same should go for any movie that only has importance on its side and nothing else. Movies should not award importance but art. Leave importance to politics and social justice or whatever. No wonder Oscars are losing audience like crazy.
“Importance =/= artistic merit.”
You’re right about that. But you’ve also (loosely) stated that box office = artistic merit in other posts. Where does one draw the line? Importance and box office should be left out of the conversation entirely. Paddy wasn’t saying “Suffragette deserves ‘this’ because of ‘this’.” He was standing up for a movie he felt was one of the most “important female-driven films of the year” because you started it out by saying “Mulligan and her pitiful message flick”. So, really, you’re the one who’s bringing up the message of the movie into the awards conversation. Tit for tat, sweetheart.
Again, he felt it was one of the most important, not one of the best. he used importance as the ticket for nomination. I’m totally against that and the movie isn’t getting outstanding reviews either. it’s a mediocrity that happens to be about important subject but is mediocrity anyway.
Awarding importance over art only destroys credibility of those awards. There are absolutely no world-shattering changes. None. Slumdog win didn’t improve lives of poorest Indians. Hollywood jetted the kids over to Kodak and forgot about them and similar problems the moment awards were handed out. 12YS didn’t improve race relations, in fact, tension is the worst in a long time. having something as bland and blah as Suffragette in Oscar line-up won’t improve women’s rights any more than Patricia Arquette’s equal wage speech did. Movies awards simply don’t have such power and they don’t raise awareness either cause nobody takes Hollywood phonies seriously anyway. Stick to art and entertainment.
“You’ve come onto a post about great work done by women in film this year to attack one of the most important female-driven films of the year.”
His words. Where in there does he say it deserves a nomination? He didn’t use importance as the ticket, but you’ve used box office merits as a ticket for nominations or else “AMPAS has become out of touch with reality.”
So he’s suggesting that I shouldn’t be critical of a mediocre movie because it’s a woman director and it’s important female-driven movie. hello, it’s a MEDIOCRE movie! I’m not going to give it a pass just because some minority got a chance to direct and did a lousy job. I’m not a SJW.
Nope. There’s a difference between being critical and attacking (which is the word he used and the word that best describes your critiquing). You seem to break down a movie because it has a message. Maybe that’s not your intention. But it’s the way you come across. Nobody is asking you give it a pass because “some minority” got a chance to direct it. But in your words you say “some minority” as if this person means nothing and you wonder why people call you out on this shit.
I just don’t accept SJW POV where we are supposed to go easy on minorities just because they don’t have a chance to direct so often. And I will never speak SJW-ish or PC-ish. if my opinion comes off as an attack than what can I say? It’s what it is.
But imo Suffragette isn’t just an important film, it’s a good film too. Its quality is in fact informed by its importance, given that every film is a product of the time in which it is produced and consumed. It’d be a far better Best Picture winner on artistic merit than half of existing winners.
OK, that’s your opinion. I respect that. Disagree with it but respect it. Cause Fury Road >>>>>>>>>> Suffragette while being just as important. It doesn’t have to state its importance in the title. And yes, it would have made better Best Picture than anything awarded this decade and many from the previous one.
This is actually about Blanchett, not Larson, right?: “She is the frontrunner to win because she’s great in the role, she is everywhere doing publicity and is going to star in a strong Best Picture contender.”
Blanchett seemed like she was pulling a 3peat when reviews were glowing for Carol and Truth. Banner year and all that. Than Truth hit one roadblock after another (most devastating being appalling boxoffice) while Larson rose to frontrunner status. I’d say it’s between Larson and yet to be seen incredible Lawrence as Joy, though Ronan win would be really nice surprise. well, if Brooklyn performs well, that will keep the buzz hot.
Shu Qi – The Assassin
Kiersey Clemons – Dope
Zoe Kravitz – Dope, Mad Max: Fury Road
and I must say that she looks GREAT in the trailer:
Teyonah Parris – Chi-Raq
I’d die happy if Shu Qi was nominated.
Hi Sasha, very nice article – CHAPEAU again !
But I think that you are playing down the chances of JENNIFER LAWRENCE – “Joy” so she does not become unseen & unreleased the front runner yet, not yet, and therefore not to lose momentum for the high season with the important bailouts/nomms. returning to the category board members of the ACADEMY. Out of the full lenght the trailer of “JOY” it seems to me that the movie contains i.e. “Money, Crime, Betrayal, Family & KIDS” all that stuff for getting very highly probable a real big love from the ACADEMY this year.
Last but not least, I can’t wait for the magnificant actress JENNIFER LAWRENCE saying………………………………. “Never speak, on my behalf…about my business, again.” @JLAW
I think this is a category where critics awards are going to make a big difference.
I think it’ll be interesting to see if we see the critics groups start putting Rooney and Vikander in their lead fields. If they do, the campaigns and Oscar voters will have to follow suit.
One thing learned from Brie Larson’s interview on Scott Fienberg’s podcast was that Jacob Trembley’s great performance in Room wouldn’t have happened if it weren’t for BL. I imagine everyone involved with Room will bring that into the discussion to boost BL.
Did she say so? How thirsty and desperate.
Sad stan
1) I’m glad you brought up Regina Case. In a less competitive year, she might get a “foreign actress” slot, e.g. Fernanda Montenegro, Marion Cotillard, Catherine Deneuve, Catalina Sandino Moreno, but it ain’t gonna happen this year. She’s so wonderful. But the film was a flop even by arthouse standards. But next to Tangerine, it’s my favorite film of the year (so far).
2) We all know that its either Lily Tomlin OR Charlotte Rampling (or Maggie Smith or Blythe Danner), and NOT Lily Tomlin AND Charlotte Rampling, etc., because we all know two elderly actresses cannot be giving outstanding performances in the same year, don’t we? Simple FACT. I’m very impatient to see Charlotte Rampling. Do you really think her chances are so slim? Along with the “token old lady” vote, she’s got the “never even been nominated” (not even for Swimming Pool, Wings of a Dove, Life During Wartime or Under the Sand!!!) scenario to play off of. Whether her performance is excellent is, naturally, a secondary consideration.
Following Ronan’s trajectory for the season will be interesting. I know shes getting very good reviews, but its the movie thats getting the most attention. I still have a hard time thinking that Mulligan (with best performance of her career notices, plus Far From the Madding Crowd) and/or any of the vets (Maggie Smith, Rampling, Tomlin) wont make it in, too.
Saoirse Ronan is stronger every day with the buzz, so happy for her! se totally deserve it ,
yeah, she’s supplanting Larson BIG time. Room came out way too early and is not getting the box office returns it needs for A24 to sustain two-three more months of publicity.
Benutty – why so much hate for “Room”? I rarely go to comments, but it seems like if I do, you’ve somehow shoehorned a rant on why Room is getting attention it doesn’t deserve… is overrated… will never be nominated… is failing at the box office…blah blah blah…
Why not put energy into something you really like instead of something you didn’t? You almost sound like a one-man campaign to ensure that Room DOESN’T get nominated for anything just to prove your points. Did Brie Larson or Lenny Abrahamson not RSVP you for a party of something? Sheesh!
For the record, I haven’t seen the film… so it’s not like I’m rooting for it, or anything – I’m just getting tired of your negativity. Yes, you have an opinion – just branch out every once in awhile…
come back to the Comments more often and you’ll see an equal amount of my attention devoted to loving and singing the praises of Carol.
I bring up my dislike for Room and my genuine belief that it won’t be nominated because Room is often a topic, both in the posts and in the comments. If people want to talk about how great it is and all the places it’s a frontrunner then I’m happy to offer a distinctly different opinion on the matter. If that’s a problem for you, get over it.
Makes sense now… you love Carol… feel threatened by Room.
THANKS 🙂
not even slightly, but nice try
Hopefully she supplants her. Big part of Larson’s appeal is Tremblay. Ronan is all Ronan.
If I had to decide between Larson and Ronan I would go Larson 100%. I think her role is more complex and she deserves it more. Ronan is good but it’s really the movie that people liked more than the individual performance, which frankly is nothing special.
Brooklyn is a very good film but Ronan’s performance is a bit static I feel. I don’t really get the hype…