Spotlight was the big winner at the Gotham Awards which, until last year’s Birdman’s win, was known as a mostly fringe indie group that didn’t impact or overlap the Oscar race. In terms of Best Picture, the year usually starts out with a favorite. That favorite is either beloved throughout (The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire) or sooner or later is regarded as a drag to vote for because it’s winning everything under the sun (Boyhood). None of this reflects the reality of awarding the actual “best picture of the year” — just the film that people feel best about voting for. The Oscars have always been sort of a game — built on buzz and popularity. This year could turn out to be predictable — Spotlight wins the National Board of Review, the New York and LA Film critics before taking the Golden Globes, then the PGA, the DGA, SAG and Oscar. Stranger things have happened, honestly. The pundits at Gold Derby and Movie City News are currently predicting Spotlight to win. It very well might. It’s the safe choice. It’s a perfect film liked by everybody, loved by many. It has everything going for it and no real drawbacks. So what’s the problem?
There isn’t one, really. The race might over as of tonight. The rest will just be sorting out the rest of the categories. My own opinion about the Best Picture race is that we don’t really know until the Producers Guild Awards. At that point, it’s not longer a handful of voters but thousands. Thousands saw the movie and loved it above all others to give it the win. Working with a preferential ballot, Spotlight will have no problem getting enough number one votes and number two or three votes. The thing to notice about Spotlight is that no one has anything really bad to say about it. It isn’t divisive, it isn’t controversial, and it features good people doing good things. It’s well acted, written and directed. It’s a top to bottom excellent American film.
It’s too early to say whether another film will rise in prominence with the bigger consensus. We were all surprised by Birdman’s win at the Producers Guild. Ditto the Gravity/12 Years a Slave tie. And even Argo was kind of a shocker. Going all the way back to 2009, it’s at the Producers Guild that things get real in terms of the Oscars. Spotlight did not win the audience award at Toronto and has been routinely beaten by films like Room and Brooklyn at other film festivals. Is it a cerebral experience or an emotional one? Then there is the matter of it not coming from a major studio. Only three times in 87 years has Best Picture gone to an independent studio. Will it matter? Maybe, maybe not. It’s too soon to know for sure. When they like a movie, they like a movie wherever it came from.
But these are a few things to consider when making your predictions. Or not. Maybe it’s just a green light all the way down the line.
With the National Board of Review coming tomorrow, and the New York Film Critics the following day, it could be a Spotlight blowout or it could split up all over the place. It’s too soon to know. The one thing you can be certain of is that the frontrunner out of Telluride was Spotlight, and the frontrunner remains Spotlight.
I don’t give a shit if the race is over or isn’t over or shying related to a race at all. I think spotlight is a great movie and it should win. End of story. I don’t care if 8ts an upset or a front runner
Just a thought. I wonder if Spotlight can swoop the critics prizes majority and then get screwed at the end a la The Social Network and Sideways. Like I said, just a thought.
Oh, I can completely see that happening
I’m kind of surprised at the backlash against Spotlight that’s evidently spreading – though I know I shouldn’t be, the “it’s good but not THAT good” always comes up with many of the best movies. I mean, everyone’s entitled to their opinion, and I think healthy criticism is very fair and always warranted, so in a way I’m happier that people are evaluating the movie critically rather than jumping on a bandwagon. But I have to say, Spotlight completely blew me away. There’s something to be said about subtlety and understatement – no, Spotlight isn’t as “beautiful” visually or as grand a technical achievement as many of the movies which have recently been heavily noticed by the Academy (best pic winner or not), but to me it stands among the greatest “small scale”, personal films of the last five years or so – among which I would count Amour, Boyhood, A Separation, Blue is the Warmest Color, and others. I find it complex, and beautiful, and compassionate, and restrained, and heartbreaking, and yes, often bleak, but ultimately hopeful about healing, all in its own ways (I’d be happy to elaborate on these opinions with a fuller review/defense of this when I have the time if anyone wants to engage more fully), ways I’m not sure that Ridley Scott or Inarritu or Russell or any of the other big names this year would be capable of reproducing. But then again, others interpret it as a “by the books” movie, so I don’t know. I personally wouldn’t mind a smaller, personal, intimate movie about relatively ordinary people in ordinary (albeit horrific) situations winning – when was the last time that really happened, Million Dollar Baby?
Like argo, it’s simply great storytelling
I think I need to see Spotlight again. Because I didn’t see what everyone else saw. I didn’t see a film that convinced me it would steamroll its way through the season. It’s not only not my #1 (or even close), I found it hard to imagine how it could be ANYONE’s.
Well-acted? Sure (though Ruffalo’s work rubbed me the wrong way somehow), but except maybe for Liev Schreiber none of the performances struck me as being awards-caliber. Well-written? Sure, but even as historical films go I think Bridge of Spies was better. Well-directed? I suppose. I can’t imagine McCarthy winning, though.
There were moments that moved me–the testimony of the victims, the gradual discovery of just how widespread the abuse is–but outside of these moments I was engaged, but not really compelled.
Maybe it was the hype. Hype can do that.
For what it’s worth, I agree…
The film lacked any suspense or momentum and I think it’s less compelling as a procedural than people are suggesting. There is very little insight into the occupation. Compare it to a film like SHATTERED GLASS and it comes up way short. Compare any of the performances to Saarsgard in that movie and I’m not sure where the outcry for accolades comes from.
Part of the appeal is the butthurt over Keaton losing to Redmayne last year, I suspect. The other is the film’s obvious topicality.
Agree on Ruffalo too, who I usually like on screen.
I agree as well.
Oh, I still think it will win, because it’s the sort of safe, workmanlike mediocrity that the Academy loves. It won’t be #1 on the most ballots, perhaps, but it will kill on #2-4 votes.
Ah, Shattered Glass. That’s a good movie that should be better remembered than it is.
And yes, it really doesn’t deliver on the procedural goods. I couldn’t help but think of All the President’s Men and how much more urgent it felt–but then again, Alan J. Pakula outclasses Tom McCarthy easily.
Don’t evaluate a film 9n whether it will win bp, just evaluate whether you liked it. That applies to all films. Otherwise you’re missing the point ofe Oscar buzz
To be fair to film, I also went to a fairly late screening and might have been too tired to really enjoy a comparatively subtle and meditative film. I may have also hyped it up too much for myself going in. I don’t know. I want to give it that second chance.
I’m sure I’m repeating what someone already said because it seems obvious. I still think CAROL and ANOMALISA take one of the biggies each (NYFCC & LAFCA). SPOTLIGHT could be that consensus player among smaller groups, but I don’t see the top-tier critics voting it best of the year, similarly with NSFC. It’s just no SOCIAL NETWORK given their other options.
NBR could indeed go for SPOTLIGHT but they don’t count as “critics”, do they now? I don’t know.
CAROL, ANOMALISA and to a lesser degree SPOTLIGHT for the critics. JOY for the industry–with maybe SPOTLIGHT as spoiler of my predictions.
I think your read on this is dead on.
I see some combo of CAROL / ANOMALISA / MAD MAX / SON OF SAUL winning the Picture / Director prizes from NY & LA. A few regional groups will likely toss SPOTLIGHT awards, but I’d be surprised if it got the top prize from NY or LA .
“Spotlight” is maybe not a knockout film but none of the films are either.It may not win all the critic awards but going into the Oscar unless there another film that’s loved very much, “Spotlight” is still most likely to win.
I think Spotlight is the pick here. I majored in journalism and broadcasting when I was in college and now I am full time journalist covering stories left and right. I saw this movie last weekend and man what a movie.
Spotlight has a better shot than The Revenant. But I agree with the commenters (and we seem to be the only ones online who think this) that once it starts winning critics awards it will have a hard time rallying the kind of excitement a winner needs to win over a much larger consensus. Also, it being from an independent studio is going to present a problem. Only three times: Henry V, Crash, Hurt Locker. Not impossible just an obstacle. I love the movie and would be fine with it winning but I’m not going to fall on the train like I did last year with Boyhood which had many of the same obstacles Spotlight will have – although Spotlight is probably a bigger overall crowdpleaser. Meditative films like that don’t win Best Picture though. Can anything think of one that has?
I agree about the meditative nature of SPOTLIGHT being a problem, but I think the film wins basically due to its pre-credits text crawl which hammers the audience over the head with importance… It’s a cathartic moment in a movie that uses the reporters’ struggle about the consequences of their own incompetence as a pent up allegory for Catholics’ willing blind eye toward the church’s obvious abuses.
THE MARTIAN has a similar issue insofar as blockbusters don’t typically win. What was the last one? LOTR?
I think SPOTLIGHT will win BP from Boston Critics, but that’s the only Critics’ group I expect it to take. THE MARTIAN will be lucky to win anything.
The Martian is not expected to win critics’ awards, so there is not a perception that it matters to the overall campaign Oscar-wise.
Whereas a movie like Spotlight needs critics’ wins to boost its credentials.
Obviously, regarding THE MARTIAN…
I don’t think SPOTLIGHT needs wins from Critics’ groups at this point. It’s in, and it’s a frontrunner, regardless of which way the wind blows this next week. A film that is poised to win SAG Ensemble and a lock for a nomination there has to be taken seriously no matter what critics do.
Sure, it’s poised for a nomination no matter what happens in December and, yes, SAG ensemble seems tailor-made to it (unless Joy really hits it out of the park), but in order to really position itself as a frontrunner, it needs some critics’ love too. Exactly because it’s not a big populist movie at heart.
On the other hand, too much critical love might strangle it, Boyhood-style? Maybe it will be served best by some other film taking the frontrunners’ seat at this still-early point?
I agree. It happens all the time: a film is elevated to a standard it cant sustain, then people start hating it and the backlash begins. Spotlight was a film few people had on radar, then it got seen and people praised it to be recognized as it should. Then the recognition turned in to frontrunner status, which may lead to awards sweep, and then BAM, it will be seen as “nothing much”, “isnt all THAT great”, and “overrated”. That’s a big problem of awards season.
I don’t think this is happening with SPOTLIGHT at all. It’s doing quite well at the box office and the reviews are sensational. I don’t like the movie personally, but I don’t think it’s underwhelming.
I always find the BFCA ratings to be super telling during Oscar season. More important as a stat than Metacritic or Rotten Tomatoes, at least.
Son of Saul – 98
Spotlight – 96
Inside Out – 93
The Big Short – 92
Room – 92
Brooklyn – 91
The Martian – 91
The Revenant – 90
Mad Max: Fury Road – 89
Sicario – 89
Bridge of Spies – 87
Creed – 86
Steve Jobs – 86
Beasts of No Nation – 84
Black Mass – 84
The Danish Girl – 84
Love and Mercy – 84
Carol – 83
Anomalisa – 82
Suffragette – 78
Youth – 74
Hateful Eight, Joy = TBA
In my opinion, the final race is going to be Spotlight vs. Carol vs. The Revenant.
About Carol being in the same situation as Brokeback, I think it only means good things for the film. It has already been 10 years since the disaster that was Crash winning over Brokeback. Everyone in the world knows it was a huge mistake. That leads to a feeling of atonement: “we have to repair that!”. And in these 10 years, the Academy has opened its mind towards gay themes, at least a little (The Kids Are All Right and Annette Bening, The Imitation Game, Dallas Buyers Club and Jared Leto, Albert Nobbs actresses, Milk, Christopher Plummer, Colin Firth, etc). The society nowadays is much more tolerant of it. The time has changed in 10 years.
Besides, Carol has some other great narratives: in this century, only one film that won the Oscars can be considered a romance, and that’s Slumdog Millionaire, out of 15 films. Only two were about women, Chicago and Million Dollar Baby. None about gay. Todd Haynes is a relevant director still to be recognized by awards, there’s an urgency in that. Carol is an art film, and still has recognizible and loved lead actresses. The film has power to be nominated in many categories, it can have 8, 9, 10 noms. This is importante when voters decide which film to award the biggest prize.
And, which is something heavy: it seems to be Harvey’s priority this year. This is an Oscar master that is absent 2 years in a row from the true race for BP. He must be crazy about it!
Swap Carol with Joy. Screw potential mixed critical response, it’s predictably playing like gangsbusters with the guilds. They are also building the “strong female-centric movie…not since Chicago has won…” narrative. It’s better positioned to take advantage of it than Carol/Brooklyn/Room because the character is relatable and who wouldn’t want to be her? Plus JLaw’s star turn. Plus driving feminist message without being feminazi obnoxious. It’s timely. That’s the key to Best Picture win.
Thats what Sasha is preaching for years, and this is why I feel strong for a win:
“Working with a preferential ballot, Spotlight will have no problem
getting enough number one votes and number two or three votes.”
Spotlight seems like a classic case of a film that will do great with the critics based awards but will falter once we get to guild based awards.
As the industry loves rewarding movies about the industry, critics love rewarding movies about their own as well.
All of this.
I wouldn’t call “Spotlight” a critical darling in the same way as “TSN” or “Boyhood”. It’s actually a straight forward film and one that is very in tune with Academy taste. It’s a film about white guys doing heroic things. when has a film like that won? It has a huge cast. Also, it’s director Tom McCarthy is not loved by the critics unlike David Fincher and Richard Linklater. “Spotlight” Has almost everything going for it and it’s very difficult to see how it can be beaten.
Well see about The Revenant. I’m not yet convinced its reviews will be universally positive. It will surely get a Best Picture nomination, but a chance to win? It seems like a very divisive movie. I do think it has a better chance than Joy which hasn’t really built any best pic buzz yet, even after its NY LA screenings.
Do you think The Revenant will have a Metacritic score of at least 75? That’s what The Wolf of Wall Street got. I think it’s score will be around 87 / 88. But I know what you mean though. It seems like such a “sure thing” right now from all the buzz around it.
I think it will be more divisive than an 87 or 88 would entail. I’m thinking more like 76-77… and that’s not good enough to be a BP winner.
I can’t wait to find out either way, this is gonna be fun. 🙂 BTW, 1 film has won Best Picture with a low Metacritic score, and that’s Crash that has a score of 69.
That’s funny you mention WOLF OF WALL STREET. That picture had too much of a love it/hate it vibe to win anything. I fear THE REVENANT might be the same. I can’t really guess it’s metascore at this point, the reactions are all over the place, but it could be anywhere between 75-85.
I guess it all depends on if they think it’s too violent. That will make it divisive for sure then.
Reviews absolutely won’t be universally positive. It’s a love/hate movie. It seems that NY critics are on the hate side judging by some tweets. That said, what guilds think worth more than MC score.
Spotlight seems like Boyhood 2.0 to me. The critics love it but it may not actually win much of anything. I don’t think there is a frontrunner in BP yet.
“Boyhood” won everything except the Oscars but then we know all about the Oscars poor judgement when it comes great films. “Titanic” over “L.A Confidential”, “crash” over “Brokeback Mountain”, “The King’s Speech” over “The Social Network” and “Birdman” over “Boyhood”. I don’t think the critics will really love “Spotlight” because it is not at the same level as the films I mentioned. It’s just seems to be the best film this year, that’s all.
“Spotlight” not been loved so much by the critics will help it’s chances at the Oscars. “Boyhood” was loved too much, that was it’s biggest problem.
Exactly. Spotlight would be strangled if the critics embrace it too hard in December. Better for it to keep a low profile for now (low does not equal invisible, mind).
Spotlight is 93% on Metacritic so yeah they do love it. Boyhood did not win ensemble at SAG either. Some of the movies you named were not great or even good (The Social Network for example) so sometimes Oscar voters do get it right.
If you are basing criticall love by Metacritic only, then surely they love “Carol” and Inside out” more than “Spotlight”? “Boyhood” didn’t win at the guilds and least surprising one of the lot was SAG because it had only two well actors compared to the star studded “Birdman”. There is no doubt that “The Social Network” was easily the best film that year and it was shocking to see it beaten by a bad TV movie. Yes, the Oscars sometimes do get it right, but when they get it wrong, they get unbelievably wrong. Their history is filled with absolute shocking snubs, from “Citizen Kane” To “Boyhood”.
TSN and Boyhood were both bad tv movies in my opinion. Films elevated to importance simply because they are the stories of white men.
We will just have to agree to disagree.
“Boyhood” is about a white boy growing up, not about big important people. You must have it confused with other films, like “TKS”, “Argo”, and “Birdman”. “Boyhood” is one of the most ambitious and unique film ever and that’s why it was lauded so overwhelming. It was life as art. “Boyhood” was bigger than the Oscars, the Oscars are for films that needed to be appreciated but “Boyhood” had massive appreciation that it didn’t matter if win or lost. Only the Oscars were the ones who stood to lose by failing recognise it. You might say you didn’t like TSN but that doesn’t mean TKS was a better film or looked more cinematic. That’s even more obvious now than at the time. TKS won due to the subject, was more academy kind of film and was also a massive hit with the public. But that doesn’t mean it was a great film or better than TSN.
I think that Inarritu’s achievement would be hard to resist by the Industry. I hear reactions varying from “stunned” to “floored” to “Epic.” Plus, it couldn’t be any more different than Birdman. That’s a big positive! I’m very bullish on him repeating for Best Director. That combined with DiCaprio, Lubezki and a Win for Sound Editing, and it becomes almost unbeatable. I want to see the reviews coming out on Dec. 4th and also the Box-Office and the CinemaScore before really making that final determination.
Spotlight is only a frontrunner (almost a lock) for Best Original Screenplay. Editing will most likely go to Mad Max.
People either love The Revenant or admire the work. I’m more bullish on it now. I think that it will surpass The Martian very soon and be the solid Number 2 contender. It already is on GoldDerby. If it could win tomorrow or maybe in LA, you never know. NYFCC will definitely not vote for it, however. They are becoming less and less relevant each year anyway.
I agree that Mad Max will win Editing. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t. Just like I’ll be shocked if Emmanuel Lubezki doesn’t win Cinematography for The Revenant.
Peter Travers just updated on GoldDerby and has it at Number 2. Feinberg and Tapley have it at Number 3 behind Spotlight and The Martian. Even Sasha is already placing it at Number 3. If it gets great reviews (85+ on MC) and it takes off at the BoxOffice, Spotlight is finished. I would love it if LAFCA gets behind it. I can’t wait for the embargo to lift in couple of days.
The Martian will be overtaken very, very soon. It is not a slam dunk in any category. And supposedly Joy is disappointing… Even its biggest Champion Tom O’Neill dumped it as soon as he saw it. He has Spotlight and The Revenant for his 1-2. That just will allow 20th Century Fox to throw all its might behind The Revenant.
I would LOVE it if The Revenant becomes the front-runner, at the right time of course. I just have a feeling that it’s a classic in the making, and will be as technically sound as Mad Max: Fury Road.
Feels more and more like the Best Picture race will be a showdown between Spotlight and The Revenant (the trailers alone on this film make it a serious Best Picture contender.) Perhaps this year’s race will replicate 2002, when The Pianist won Best Actor and Best Director but Chicago took home Best Picture. Spotlight will need to pick up other Oscars besides Best Picture, though, I think. To date, Rebecca is the Best Picture winner with the fewest Oscars wins (2). Perhaps Spotlight can snatch Best Original Screenplay away from either Bridge of Spies or Joy. And Best Supporting Actor is looking more and more like Sylvester Stallone’s to lose, which is actually a pleasant surprise. Sorry, Mark Ruffalo. As amazing and complex as Spotlight is, the only races where I can see it being competitive are Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay. Without winning in another category, I’m doubtful about a Best Picture win unless The Revenant turns out to be junk.
I think right now the only films that have any chance of beating it this season for the big prize is Carol, The Martian, and The Revenant. Carol has gotten even better reviews, and will be on a ton of people’s top 10 lists, more so than I think any other film this year. The Martian is that comeback that people have been waiting for from Ridley Scott, and it’s a crowdpleaser that has make a lot of money. The Revenant is probably the best film that will be released in 2015, at least from what I can tell from everything I’ve read lately. Plus, Leonardo DiCaprio is in it, and his Best Lead Actor chances might help lift the film into the top spot.
But if Best Picture turns out to be a fight, then we’ll need to que the music…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioE_O7Lm0I4
If you ask me, SPOTLIGHT does indeed have a clear problem that will trouble it by the time it reaches the Academy: it is, quite simply, not very cinematic. This being the body that voted Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, etc., etc. the title of Best Motion Picture of the Year, it seems to be a body that is big on the distinct privileges of “the movies,” of camera and music work, of a show, of a director’s undeniable vision and talents. SPOTLIGHT is smart and good, canny and accomplished. But will it cause the cinema-loving AMPAS to rise up off their feet in applause? It is a very strong year and there is ample room for something like Room, Brooklyn, or Carol to swoop in and take its place.
Or The Martian I suppose. But I’m skeptical about that one as well.
I agree with you. Spotlight is a throwback in many ways; even the score sounds straight out of 1984. In an era of films like Life of Pi, Gravity, Birdman and The Revenant, Spotlight will have an uphill climb to convince AMPAS voters to select it over films that offer more eye candy. While Carol looks lush and inviting, as a gay man I can’t help thinking it will be considered the lesbian Brokeback Mountain: much beloved but too far out of the comfort zone for the old guard of the Academy to fully endorse as the best American film of the year, which is why I think they’ll go for The Revenant. It’s a “red meat” film, full of masculinity, gore, nostalgia for a (white male) past, a strong connection to the natural world, and it contains cinematic wonders to spare. In short, Spotlight for the intellectual nose breathers, The Revenant for (to borrow Sasha’s phrase) the just-make-white-guys-look-good mouth breathers.
I agree 100%. “Spotlight” is good, it’s very good, but cinematically it’s lacking something. It rushes you through the story quite neatly, the acting is vary good, but I don’t see that personal touch in the movie. I won’t go so far to call the movie bland or bleak, but it’s simply a very well executed by-the-book movie and almost feels like it was made with a recipe in one’s hand. I understand that movies without this personal touch were known to win the big awards, but if “Spotlight” wins Best Picture I’ll be a little bit disappointed. That’s why I’m rooting for more emotional movies like “Carol” or “Brooklyn” to take the lead in the final stretch.
same problem that caused Boyhood to lose IMO. well said, Jerry.
But… Room is less cinematic than Spotlight. Sry.
Well, I don’t know about that. Nothing in “Spotlight” came close to the emotional punch and unbearable tension of everything that happend between smuggling Jack out of the room and when he is finally reunited with his mom. The cinematography, the editing, the acting, the directing, simply stellar.
one scene in Room, 1/3 of the way in, had better craftsmanship than the entirety of Spotlight? absolutely not.
Cinematic craftsmanship, yes. That’s where the story is told with images not explained with characters’ dialogue. That’s not a stab at “Spotlight”, it’s simply not that type of a movie.
No. Nobody thinks that’s the reason it lost, at all. It was pure cinema.
Oscar have a history of giving the finger to critical darlings, such as “L.A Confidential”, “Broke Mountain”,”The Social Network” and the ultimate one of all ,”Boyhood”. “Boyhood” was directed by Linkalater, a unique filmmaker who the Academy is unlikely to accept unless he dumbs down his films.
Room is WAAAAAYYY more cinematic than Spotlight. Visionary storytelling throughout. Powerful sense of space and place and knows how to move you through time as it serves the story.
Well, if the “The King’s Speech can win, then all bets are off. I haven’t seen it yet, but from the trailer alone “Spotlight” looks more cinematic than “The King’s Speech” and ” Crash”. TKS was so shocking. It looks like a bad TV movie.