Spotlight was the big winner at the Gotham Awards which, until last year’s Birdman’s win, was known as a mostly fringe indie group that didn’t impact or overlap the Oscar race. In terms of Best Picture, the year usually starts out with a favorite. That favorite is either beloved throughout (The Artist, Slumdog Millionaire) or sooner or later is regarded as a drag to vote for because it’s winning everything under the sun (Boyhood). None of this reflects the reality of awarding the actual “best picture of the year” — just the film that people feel best about voting for. The Oscars have always been sort of a game — built on buzz and popularity. This year could turn out to be predictable — Spotlight wins the National Board of Review, the New York and LA Film critics before taking the Golden Globes, then the PGA, the DGA, SAG and Oscar. Stranger things have happened, honestly. The pundits at Gold Derby and Movie City News are currently predicting Spotlight to win. It very well might. It’s the safe choice. It’s a perfect film liked by everybody, loved by many. It has everything going for it and no real drawbacks. So what’s the problem?
There isn’t one, really. The race might over as of tonight. The rest will just be sorting out the rest of the categories. My own opinion about the Best Picture race is that we don’t really know until the Producers Guild Awards. At that point, it’s not longer a handful of voters but thousands. Thousands saw the movie and loved it above all others to give it the win. Working with a preferential ballot, Spotlight will have no problem getting enough number one votes and number two or three votes. The thing to notice about Spotlight is that no one has anything really bad to say about it. It isn’t divisive, it isn’t controversial, and it features good people doing good things. It’s well acted, written and directed. It’s a top to bottom excellent American film.
It’s too early to say whether another film will rise in prominence with the bigger consensus. We were all surprised by Birdman’s win at the Producers Guild. Ditto the Gravity/12 Years a Slave tie. And even Argo was kind of a shocker. Going all the way back to 2009, it’s at the Producers Guild that things get real in terms of the Oscars. Spotlight did not win the audience award at Toronto and has been routinely beaten by films like Room and Brooklyn at other film festivals. Is it a cerebral experience or an emotional one? Then there is the matter of it not coming from a major studio. Only three times in 87 years has Best Picture gone to an independent studio. Will it matter? Maybe, maybe not. It’s too soon to know for sure. When they like a movie, they like a movie wherever it came from.
But these are a few things to consider when making your predictions. Or not. Maybe it’s just a green light all the way down the line.
With the National Board of Review coming tomorrow, and the New York Film Critics the following day, it could be a Spotlight blowout or it could split up all over the place. It’s too soon to know. The one thing you can be certain of is that the frontrunner out of Telluride was Spotlight, and the frontrunner remains Spotlight.
