Well, now that we’ve all been traumatized – in good ways, bad ways and ugly ways by this morning’s SAG nominations – it’s time to clean ourselves up and get back to work, you know, buy ourselves something nice for a change.
Now that best picture is mostly settled and out of way, it’s a matter of figuring out where all of the other pieces fit together. This is the most wide open Oscar race we’ve seen in a while. It’s kind of all over the place, due to there being a lot of movies in contention — a lot of good ones — and a lot of little fringe dwellers rallying here in the middle. It would be a mistake to take the SAG awards as “changing the direction of the race” because we can’t yet know that.
Let’s table the state of the race for now, admit we know nothing as yet, and move on to the Golden Globes, announcing very early tomorrow AM.
Okay, so what do we know about the Golden Globes? They are also their own animal. There are only about 90 of them. They are charmed and wooed and partied and pressured constantly by publicists and talent. They pick what they like – usually they like movies that are more or less “serious.” If a film misses the Globes it doesn’t have as much of an impact as, say, the Producers Guild which, for Best Picture, is the big one. The Globes can help but I don’t think they can hurt.
We don’t yet know if the SAG nominations really did change the race, or if they are going to be an outlier, like they were in 2007 when No Country for Old Men was nominated alongside 3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray, Into the Wild and American Gangster. None of the other four were nominated for Best Picture, though Sean Penn’s Into the Wild earned him a DGA nomination. The Globes had these movies in play – including American Gangster and Hairspray but ultimately they drifted into the background as the Oscar movies took their place. Those were the wildly popular Juno, the equally popular Michael Clayton, Atonement and There Will be Blood.
Things shifted dramatically away from the SAG ensemble that year, though it was kind of hard to tell how the race would go because Julian Schnabel’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly made up the other fringe dweller that took both a DGA slot and a PGA slot. The thing was, though, there were only five nominations in all of these categories. Now, we are dealing with a preferential ballot and ten nominee for PGA. The Directors Guild has grown to a much higher membership than it did back then. Still, under the preferential ballot, I’m going to wager that Into the Wild and Diving Bell and Butterfly made up #5 and #6, leaving two slots open. Ratatouille was in the mix, and that might have gotten in. There were a lot of also-rans that were hovering like Charlie Wilson’s War and Sweeney Todd. 3:10 to Yuma is a slight possibility but the one film that seemed like a no-brainer for a nomination was all but shut out, and that was Ridley Scott’s American Gangster.
2007 was a crazy year. All of these films, or most of them, were swirling around the Golden Globes nominations, too, giving some clues and giving none.
There is going to be some kind of crossover between SAG and Globes to find Oscar but none of us yet knows what it is. Onto nominations.
Marshall Flores: Beasts of No Nation, Brooklyn, Concussion, The Revenant, Spotlight
Sasha Stone: Beasts of No Nation, Brooklyn, Carol, The Revenant, Spotlight
Film Drama Actor
Flores: Leonardo DiCaprio, Johnny Depp, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, Will Smith
Stone: Leonardo DiCaprio, Johnny Depp, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne, Bryan Cranston
Film Drama Actress
Flores: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Carey Mulligan, Saoirse Ronan, Alicia Vikander
Stone: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Rooney Mara, Saoirse Ronan, Alicia Vikander
Flores: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck
Stone: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Grandma, Trainwreck
Film Comedy/Musical Actor
Flores/Stone: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Bradley Cooper, Matt Damon, Robert De Niro
Film Comedy/Musical Actress:
Flores/Stone: Jennifer Lawrence, Melissa McCarthy, Amy Schumer, Maggie Smith, Lily Tomlin
Flores: Idris Elba, Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone
Stone: Idris Elba, Michael Keaton, Paul Dano, Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone
Flores: Elizabeth Banks, Jane Fonda, Helen Mirren, Kristen Stewart, Kate Winslet
Stone: Jane Fonda, Helen Mirren, Kristen Stewart, Kate Winslet, Jennifer Jason Leigh
Flores: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Tom McCarthy, George Miller, Ridley Scott, Steven Spielberg
Stone: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Tom McCarthy, Todd Haynes, George Miller, Ridley Scott
Flores: Brooklyn, The Martian, Room, Spotlight, Steve Jobs
Stone: Brooklyn, The Martian, Carol, Spotlight, Steve Jobs
Flores/Stone: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Spotlight
Flores/Stone: Anomolisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, Minions, Shaun the Sheep Movie