You know, it’s always a good thing when the Oscar punditry world is shaken up a bit to be reminded of what the industry is really like. It happens sometimes. Not often, but it happens. This is such a wide open year and we’ve said all along that anything can happen. There are a few facts to take from this morning’s announcement. The first is that probably no other film can win Best Picture except Spotlight. Of the five in ensemble it’s the only one that can build any sort of momentum with the larger industry. With The Martian taken out of the race (people will love to smear that pie all over my face for an eternity), at least unless it can Braveheart its way to an Oscar win, it’s Spotlight’s to lose as there are no other challengers in that ensemble lineup unless we’re all out of our minds, which is entirely possible:
BEASTS OF NO NATION (Netflix)
THE BIG SHORT (Paramount Pictures)
SPOTLIGHT (Open Road Films)
STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON (Universal Pictures)
TRUMBO (Bleecker Street)
If we were thinking that it was going to be a “big studio year ” — or some of us were — we’re wrong. It’s not. In fact, it’s going to be the first year since 2009 that an independent studio release will win Best Picture, and that’s Open Road. It’s great news for Netflix today because first they crashed the Emmy party and then they crashed the Oscar party, at least for now.
The diversity of the nominees is a beautiful thing — it must be said up front. Two major motion pictures with all black cast made it in (though, sadly, neither of them Creed). That’s pretty great. Straight Outta Compton is probably going to be a stronger contender than it was before (hi Scott Feinberg!). I will quietly keep my fingers crossed for Beasts of No Nation and be really depressed that Ridley Scott’s The Martian was completely shut out. I think that’s bunk, sorry, but I do. Matt Damon, at the very least, that incredible cast. Still, it’s hard to find much to complain about when Beasts of No Nation gets two nominations. That’s the one thing that brightens an otherwise bizarre list.
As for the individual acting categories, the only explanation I can offer up is that publicists — who once relied on the pundits to help bring in nominations — are likely going straight to the source and bypassing “our” world. Which means we have to be smarter about “dumbing down” our predictions. Or at least remembering what the awards race is really about: publicists. Just kidding. No, really though. If Sarah Silverman can’t catch a break with people like us — fuck it, go to the actors themselves.
Other than that, I offer up no other explanation except that 1) Spotlight will be the only film that can win Best Picture unless by some miracle Straight Outta Compton or Beasts of No Nation can. I don’t imagine the Big Short can win (although I suppose it’s possible). I don’t know what to say about Trumbo except that the actors really like it, clearly. They like it better than Brooklyn, Room, The Martian, Creed — man oh man.
Okay, it’s really time to stop thinking so hard about all of this and pop open the champagne. Or bourbon, as the case may be.
So I guess the lesson to take away from all of this? Nobody knows anything, even Scott Feinberg who knows a lot. The second lesson: don’t listen to people like me because we know least of all.
“(…)you know you’re in trouble when the Hollywood Foreign Press is the
voice of reason”
in:
http://variety.com/2015/film/news/oscars-2015-spotlight-joy-revenant-martian-1201657600/
Did anyone see Sarah Silverman in ”I Smile Back”? It’s stunning that she got a SAG nomination for it.
I just read that since it opened Nov. 6, the movie has grossed only $58,000. That must be some kind of record.
Admittedly it was released to VOD as well and had some festival play too.
I’ve seen it. The film reminded me of CAKE, to be honest, which isn’t flattering. I didn’t feel Silverman did much to elevate it, and frankly thought her depiction of addiction was more convincing in TAKE THIS WALTZ. There’s some “brave” sexual material, and it’s certainly baity because its a drama about addiction with a performance from an actress thought of as a comic, but I found it forced overall. Silverman, for her part, did little to elevate it in my opinion, although I wouldn’t say she was terrible or anything.
Mary Elizabeth Winstead in SMASHED is probably an even better frame of reference.
We all know that Leonardo DiCaprio is overdue to win at the Oscars, but he’s pretty overdue at the SAG Awards, too. Today’s nomination for ”The Revenant” marks his 9th SAG nomination (without a win). It’ll be nearly 20 years since his first one for the ensemble of ”Marvin’s Room” (1996). In 2007, DiCaprio got three SAG nominations: 1 for Best Actor for ”Blood Diamond”; 1 for Ensemble and 1 for Supporting Actor for ”The Departed.” But I think this looks like the year he’ll finally seal the deal with the SAGs and the Oscars.
Creed is not an all black movie
i didn’t think sag would turn into people choice awards but oh man was i wrong but hopefully ampas fixes this mess
Best Picture Oscar Predictions-
If 5 –
1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Trumbo
4. Carol
5. Beasts of No Nation
If up to 10-
6. Creed
7. The Big Short
8. Straight Outta Compton
9. Mad Max: Fury Road
10. The Revenant
Could Surprise- Steve Jobs, Hateful Eight, Joy (it’s Russell we’re talking about), The Danish Girl
I wonder if SAG members simply did not watch Brooklyn. Because I think it will do much better at the Golden Globes and the Oscars. Trumbo is like Bobby to SAG, though probably a better film.
Someone’s probably said this already, but I don’t have time to peruse through 220 comments, so here’s my two cents: I think
it makes perfect sense for Trumbo to receive the recognition it has here and will also likely have at the Oscars. Think about the navel-gazing aspect of it. Think about it: the film is about a dark period in Hollywood that saw freedom of expression for writers, directors, and actors stifled by government and media paranoia. That’s pure Hollywood gold. And remember the response to Elia Kazan receiving his honorary Oscar? It’s actually not surprising at all that Trumbo has gotten the attention it has. Trumbo is probably the antithesis of Kazan in the actors’ minds–a hero who has never received his due, responsible for some major Hollywood classics. Add to that the love for Bryan Cranston, who clearly has developed a following from Breaking Bad, as well as for Helen Mirren, who undoubtedly can do no wrong in SAG members’ minds, and you have the equation for Trumbo’s success at this year’s SAGs.
What a nightmare … No Theron and Miller? But Sarah Sliverman in it?? Helen Mirren twice for best and supporting give me a break i need to wake up
We all know that Leonardo DiCaprio is overdue to win at the Oscars, but he’s pretty overdue at the SAG Awards, too. Today’s nomination for ”The Revenant” marks his 9th SAG nomination (without a win). It’ll be nearly 20 years since his first one for the ensemble of ”Marvin’s Room” (1996). In 2007, DiCaprio got three SAG nominations: 1 for Best Actor for ”Blood Diamond”; 1 for Ensemble and 1 for Supporting Actor for ”The Departed.” This looks like the year he’ll finally seal the deal.
Is this nightmare already done??..SAG!???? WtHeck!!
Ok, am I the only one who thinks it’s not only a complete JOKE, but also complete category fraud that Rooney Mara is not only going supporting but is being allowed to????? I know it’s not the first or last time this will happen, but I just saw Carol this week and she is THE lead in the movie. The majority of the movie is seen through her perspective and I’d be shocked to find out she does not have the most screen time. Just flabbergasted. I am seriously hoping the Academy pulls a Kate Winslet on her and nominates her Lead, because it’s laughable that she is slotted in supporting.
Netflix does not belong in this race; it is not a major studio. Period, end of sentence.
lotta handwringing going on. im just happy for the nominees.
Hmm no more Disqus?
Sasha, et al: What I can’t figure out is–if they liked Spotlight so well–why didn’t Ruffalo or Keaton get nominated?? Ruffalo was absolutely genius as always!
Was SAG also playing No Guts, No Glory?
For noms only. I bet that wins will be very basic, what everyone expects to win.
My first thoughts were:
1. HUGE boost for Cranston and Trumbo
2. Joy shut out???? (probably because it screened so late for SAG)
3. damn they love Ms. Mirren
4. so sad for The Martian 🙁
5. No Dano :((((((((((((
No. Joy is shut out because it’s a mediocre movie. Simple as that.
Just your opinion man
His opinion happens to be backed up by reviews.
Reviews for It’s a Wonderful Life were also bad when it came out…time is the best critic.
Exactly. Time will forget about recent DOR movies.
That’s your opinion…Tarantino would like to disagree with you (read what he said about Russell and Lawrence). I trust Tarantino’s opinion a bit more than yours, sorry.
Keep trusting.
People give biased reviews because they are sick of David O. Russell success. Jennifer Lawrence at least should have gotten nominated but screeners were late…
Oh, sure, so many critics are going to trash a good movie just to sabotage the director they are sick of. While I don’t think that critics are strangers to agenda pushing, to insinuate that OMG greatest movie eva is trashed as an act of revenge is preposterous.
FOX knew this was awards dud which is why they slapped PG-13 on it to attract teenage girls and then cut it to pass for comedy. That’s called re-positioning. From Oscar bait to commercial fare. WB did that with Great Gatsby and had a boxoffice hit. paramount did that with Shutter island and had a boxoffice hit. Joy’s going to be a hit but it won’t win s***. Nothing wrong with that. Blame people who overhyped this despite glaring signs of trouble. But they thought Jlaw essay = Oscar, lolololol.
Joy is out of SAG noms because of late screeners…Just wait for tomorrow’s golden globes. And, people do have agendas, you being the proof of that.
LOL, of course that Joy will be in GGs – there are more categories and Comedy is weak. And they are star f^^kers.
Also, your argument that Leo was blind-voted but Biggest Star In the Wolrd and Out Lord and Savior JLaw In Another DOR Movie That SAG Should Have Blindly Love wasn’t blind-voted despite perfect blind-vote formula (DOR + Cooper + DeNiro + those dinosaur ladies) is faulty as hell.
I just think not a lot of people have seen it as I was reading a comment made by a SAG member who said that Joy, Revenant and Hateful Eight will bounce back for Oscars. And also that SAG wanted to recognize little performances that got no attention like Mirren and Silverman.
Well, Revenant has no reason to bounce back since it got an expected nom. It was not an ensemble player.
The Revenant screened late too and yet…
I think people voted for Di Caprio without actually watching the movie…just because he is overdue.
yeah, Joy stans can’t get over the fact that their hyping this as sure-fire BP winner blew up in their faces. It’s getting crap reviews, critics awards ignored it so why is it so hard to believe that SAG ignored it too?
The hatred is strong in this one…
Delusion is strong with your brethren. There’s fatigue and it’s always bound to happen when celebrity is overexposed and develops Messiah Complex.Plus movie’s crap. Bad combo.
But why is it the case though? Messiah Complex…They are movie stars, they are making movies and as Lawrence said they are not doctors saving lives or something. What’s the big deal? I don’t get the fatigue…Just judge the acting.
“Lawrence said they are not doctors saving lives or something.”
Apparently that all changed after The Fappening (“you who watched my smut are all criminals, I’ll hunt you down!”) and Sony Leak (she didn’t think of equal wage until social media jumped on Renner for being a nobody who got more paid than Oscar winner Katniss) . Now she’s “an activist” thinks she can change the world. But world doesn’t buy that PR s*** from celebs because celebs are fake. She was relatable when she was unpretentious and all she could think of on the red carpet was pizza. But this “I want 20M so I’m gonna act as if I care what other women make” is not relatable. It’s an overpaid person (15M is ridiculous itself) who wants more because someone else is ridiculously paid more. Very few can feel sympathy over 5M difference.
and to think think this year of the race could NOT get any stranger!!!
Here’s why not to expect SAG to match with Oscar:
This year, people are placing a lot of emphasis on the early industry and televised awards, due to the fact that the DGA will announce its nominations after Oscar ballots are handed in. Three years ago, when the Academy moved its nomination dates up, it caught the other big industry groups out – the only ones of any significance who could influence voting were SAG and the Golden Globes, since the others all announced after ballots had been submitted. Since then, the industry has had time to catch up and move its dates around, but this year the DGA’s announcement will still fall too late. So, it’s reasonable to expect something similar to 2012, when SAG had a shitload of influence on the Oscar acting categories. Right?
Fucking hell no. The Oscar acting nominations three years ago matched up with SAG’s nominations 14/20. That was the lowest figure for 11 years, when Jennifer Connelly was submitted as leading for A Beautiful Mind with SAG, throwing the Supporting Actress race into relative chaos, and the correlation was only 11/20. This was also the first time for 12 years that an acting Oscar went to someone not nominated for the SAG – Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained, and it was also almost the first time in history that two acting Oscar winners weren’t up for the SAG, with Emmanuelle Riva potentially having come close to beating Jennifer Lawrence to the Best Actress Oscar.
Truth is, do we rly expect Oscar to plump for Helen Mirren over Charlotte Rampling? So we rly expect they’ll even watch I Smile Back? Doesn’t it seem likely that Paul Dano, Tom Hardy, Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo and – especially – Sylvester Stallone, all still have realistic chances at Supporting Actor nominations, and even a win in Stallone’s case? My Oscar predictions before today (for the acting categories) matched with SAG’s selection a mere 11/20 – the lowest since 2001, when the race was a very different game indeed. But even adjusting them, I can only get as high as 14/20, which would still be unusually low.
If the general confusion that seems to have characterised this awards season thus far continues, then maybe do expect some big surprises at Oscar – let’s face it, Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman will probably still count as surprises even if they both score Golden Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA nominations. But I suspect things will start to come into clearer focus, if only slightly so, and many of SAG’s crazy choices this year will only look crazier as the season goes on.
Just in terms of actor nominations, Paddy, who do you expect to match more closely with the Oscars, SAG or the Online Critics? As a reminder of the online critics noms, released the other day:
Best Actor:
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes)
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)
Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Best Supporting Actress:
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Cynthia Nixon (James White)
Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
One will almost certainly be closer to the Oscar slate, so who will it be? (and for god’s sake why)
My current predictions (not yet updated on my blog) are even between the two. 13/20, which is ridiculously low for SAG, but that’s all I can stretch to atm. Both have DiCaprio, Fassbender, Blanchett, Larson, Ronan, Rylance, Mara, Vikander and Winslet. That’s 9. SAG’s other 4 are Depp, Redmayne, Shannon and McAdams. OFCS’s other 4 are Damon, Rampling, Ruffalo and Rylance.
To be clear, these are my current predictions:
Actor: Damon / Depp / DiCaprio / Fassbender / Redmayne
Actress: Blanchett / Larson / Rampling / Ronan / Tomlin
Supporting Actor: Hardy / Ruffalo / Rylance / Shannon / Stallone
Supporting Actress: Mara / McAdams / Vikander / Walters / Winslet
So the eventual Best Actor/Actress Oscar winners are probably amongst those nominated for SAG but I wonder if the eventual supporting winners were nominated today?
Either Mara or Vikander are probably winning Supporting Actress but who knows if they’ll even get nominated there.
Supporting Actor I assumed it was either Stallone or Keaton. Who even wins the SAG? Rylance or Elba? Maybe the kid?
I think you have to consider Rylance a frontrunner at this point or at least a serious threat. We’ve thought for a while now it was either Dano, Stallone or Rylance, right? It appears Rylance will get the majority of SAG votes over those two.
just here to say “Fast Eddie Albert” ranks up there with the best screen names.
Nine-year-old Jacob Tremblay (”Room”) is the youngest male SAG nominee ever. He beat out Haley Joel Osment, then 11, when he was SAG-nominated for ”The Sixth Sense.”
Spotlight is the defaultiest default frontrunner of all time.
You must not have seen The Artist
At least the artist got it’s expected noms!
Snubs to Paul Dano and Elizabeth Banks which is very surprising. I think one or both will make it into the Oscar nominations and Globes.
With all the amazing movies about women this year (better and better acted) they went with … Trumbo and Big Short?
Exactly. This year should be about Brooklyn, Carol, Room. (And Clouds of Sils Maria, but that’s out of the question.)
Yes, and I’d add to that Mad Max
Yes, absolutely.
How’s Room an ensemble movie? It’s as ensemble as Gravity.
Well if Dallas Buyer’s Club can be an ensemble so can Room
yeah, what they consider ensemble is very inconsistent.
So did you just leave after the first half? It’s a four to five character ensemble, more of an ensemble than Beasts of No Nation which really focuses on two characters with a bunch of extras who say nothing.
To be fair, that was a difficult first half to watch.
But I agree with everything you said
Beasts of No Nation has 3 actors in its nominated ensemble. That’s less than Room.
It has black people.
Room is a 5-7 character ensemble. Tremblay, Larson, Allen, William H. Macy and Joan Allen’s new husband. You might call the kidnapper a 6th principal cast member (I would) and maybe even the doctor who comes to talk to the kid (that one’s on the line, admittedly).
SAG ensembles are strictly contractual, for the record, determined by sole credits before or after the film. This is how situations such as Mara not getting a nomination for THE SOCIAL NETWORK while Hammer’s body double does happen, or how MILLION DOLLAR BABY has an ensemble of three, ignoring Martindale, Baruchel and Mackie.
Those are the three movies I’m cheering for this year.
+1
I also loved Suffragette, but I accept that it’s not part of the Best-of conversation.
Haven’t pundits been saying that pictures about journalists don’t win BP! This probably means that BP will be an indie that is among the half dozen or so talked contenders.
Yeah, but that’s because they can’t look further back than 1950, apparently…
Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright;
the band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light,
and somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout;
but there is no Joy in Oscarville — mighty Davey has struck out.
LOL Pundits and critics way off again. Thank you guilds! Thank you life!
I think this is the best title Sasha has come up with. “The Wreckage of Da Fuq” = Genius.
I hope everyone who told me “Fassbender and Depp are dead in the water” is eating some serious crow right now. It’s amazing to me that anyone thought it was even remotely possible that those two would be left out.
To me the biggest tragedies in these announcements are the absence of Creed (which perhaps broke just a little too late to wind up here) and the fact that Benicio didn’t get in. I never expected the late breakers (Joy, H8 and Revenant) to fare well here, because most committee members turn their ballots in well before the due date. But you’d think Benicio would’ve been seen in time, and they shut him out. Sad.
I just always want Johnny & Benicio in the same place. How could they ruin such an opportunity? 🙁
I knew that horrid OTT Fassbomb would do well with SAG. I’m just hoping he misses with AMPAS.
More thoughts:
Beast and Compton = reaction to #OscarsSoWhite…and now SAG is blasted off for #SAGSoMale LOLOLOLOL
I don’t buy late screeners for Joy and H8 snubs. Leo made it and The Revenant wasn’t screened/sent out screener any earlier.
oh Im pretty sure at this point JLaw is on shaky ground or almost out of the race. Ramping Theron and hell wtf even Silverman are about to snatch her spot. I would of rather have seen Mulligan but Helen Mirren..twice? We just don’t know what we think we know anymore…smh…disappointing day:/
For me, the day was disappointing only that Martian and Damon got snubbed. But other than that, Joy snub is life-giving. Critics snubbed this failed bait last week and SAG continued. of course, star-f***kers at HFPA will save its face but, yeah, this is a well needed blow.
Revenant broke slightly earlier that those other two, and again Leo was such a clear front runner in the category literally all year, that he could’ve got nominated off of the trailer alone.
My official prediction: all three of the late movies are going to DOMINATE Oscar noms and this SAG list is going to be completely irrelevant this year. I think actress and the 2 supporting categories will have as little amount of overlap as possible. Actor will match a bit better.
You are wrong. Joy’s a failed bait and it won’t dominate s***. You are just too in love with it to let it go. It isn’t receiving good enough reviews. if it makes BP line-up and especially at the expense of worthy movies backlash will be above and beyond. Also, JLaw PR better drop the hype down few notches. fatigue is real.
You are the one that’s wrong. Only 9 reviews on MC right now. Once it gets its 40-42 or so, it’ll have comparable buzz to The Fighter. And yes I am in love with it, and many others will be as well. You’re on too much of a hate trip to see its potential.
It will not have buzz comparable to The Fighter and DOR can kiss his “overdue” narrative goodbye. His movie ain’t winning s***. It’s a mediocre forgettable feel-gooder that’s getting treatment that his previous movies should have gotten, especially nigh unwatchable AH. And zero critics awards.
Fishnets, your hatred for Fassbender and adoration of The Martian hasn’t worked all that well for your predictions thus far. Your hating DOR makes me reconsider his possible chances.
That’s true. My stanning and anti-stanning didn’t pay off so far.
Start stanning DOR. Please.
I’m totally starting to stan DOR and Fassbomb! Muahahahah!
What is “stan”? Been meaning to ask this. Besides a good Eminem song
Stan is uber fanboy/fangirl. yes, after Eminem’s uber fanboy Stan.
I’ll bet you 5 bucks that Joy’s Metacritic score is within 2 points of The Fighter’s
I don’t care about MC. Word must spread that it’s the worst DOR movie. Also, Jlaw PR can’t hide fatige anymore. It’s real.
Wow. The worst DOR movie? Worse than Nailed/Accidental Love? Worse than Spanking The Monkey? You just lost all credibility.
never seen other 2 and, no, it isn’t worst than unwatchable AH. But it is time to call him out for stitching acting bait clips together and calling them movies.
Lawrence is very talented and respected in the industry. Hype has nothing to do with it.
She’s very talented, respected and overexposed. The latter is the problem. Every huge star had a phase when their peers and fans got tired of them. Just ask Leo.
As they rightfully should. For a year with such great female led and centric films they sure did scour for the generic baity male led ones.
How are Beasts and Compton generic?
I meant Trumbo and Big Short.
well, Carol’s a slog so I can see why some just couldn’t vote for it. Suffracrap and Joy suck. They probably saw Brooklyn as Saoirse show rather than ensemble movie.
So is The Big Short. And Trumbo looks like it too but i have not seen it.
They haven’t seen Trumbo either, which is why they voted for it, ha,ha.
Gee very intelligent critiques
Snubs arent made of intelligent critique but of what works and what doesn’t.
I was referring to the juvenile comments about Suffracrap and Joy suck. The correct comment would be “I don’t like Joy or Suffragette.” It’s just your opinion man.
You know that there is a strong possibility that people voted for Leo without having seen the movie, just because of the he is overdue talk…
Keep it up. Joy is snubbed. Reviews are rotten. Critics awards snubbed it too cause they’d seen the movie (see RT). I don’t know why it is so hard to accept. I’m pissed that Martian and Damon are snubbed but I’m not going around making excuses.
RT score for Joy will go up but i think RT is not a very reliable site, a lot of biased hatred towards Russell and Joy. Metacritic is a better site. Anyway SAG nominations were so wrong I’m sure they won’t reflect GG, Oscars…Just wait for tomorrow’s Golden Globes, Jennifer Lawrence and Joy will be there.
I called Mirren for lead and “The Martian” shutout for ensemble. But yeah, a weird list of nominees.
“I called Mirren for lead ”
Bravo. lesson learned: never underestimate roles that fight against Nazis.
This might be the first year in a while where Oscar and SAG don’t line up 5/5 in any of the acting categories. Actor is the only one that has a chance but I think at least one of those nominees won’t make the Academy five. Actress probably lines up 3/5 with Silverman and SAG favorite Mirren left out for others. Both Supporting categories seem like they will only be 3/5 or maybe even 2/5 lining up with the eventual Academy nominations. No one’s really talked about McAdams. She’d make sense to make the cut with the Academy if we’re assuming Spotlight is the frontrunner.
And what happened to Youth? Weren’t Caine, Keitel, and Fonda penciled in for nominations at one point?
“And what happened to Youth? Weren’t Caine, Keitel, and Fonda penciled in for nominations at one point?”
They still have an 8 1/2% chance. [/rimshot]
Fonda is its only reasonable chance right now. I called Youth as a non-factor quite some time ago.
I think that’s the case, even if the Globes nominate it broadly tomorrow (which is possible since it’s so up their alley).
Eh…if SAG couldn’t come through for Fonda, I’m not holding my breath for HFPA to.
Strange enough, thinking that Beasts made it in with these particular voters BECAUSE it was accessible on netflix. The accessibility is such a huge factor, clearly.
If it ends up doing well with Oscar nominations, it’ll make the Netflix decision look better in hindsight.
More than that, next year’s release strategies are at stake. If Beasts gets a BP nod, expect Netflix to release more of its original films that way. If not, the Chi-Raq model will be more embraced (exhibitors have made it clear they prefer that)
It’s a misconception that because Spotlight is the only BP heatseeker among the SAG Ensemble noms that it means it’ll definitely win BP. Especially when in the same breath one admits how unpredictable this season is shaping out to be.
Spotlight got what it expected to get and what many people expected it to get–though one could argue that Keaton & Ruffalo missing their noms defied expectations and throws their candidacies into question.
But to suggest that Carol, Brooklyn, The Revenant or Bridge of Spies took a hit here is silly because no one–or very few people–were expecting it to be in the Ensemble field. Carol and Brooklyn got exactly what they expected they’d get–their actress nominations. The Revenant got half of what it wanted and Bridge of Spies got half of what it hoped for. Hanks & Hardy took hits.
On the other hand, Joy, The Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs and The Martian all expected to be in Ensemble and aren’t. That’s a huge hit. And you can’t play the “Joy and The Hateful Eight didn’t get seen” card because The Revenant was/is in the same boat and Leo showed up. Jennifer Lawrence took a huge hit. Steve Jobs still got the acting noms it hoped for. The Martian is R.I.P. status–though a lot of us were never on that bandwagon to begin with.
Trumbo is not a BP play, but Cranston and Mirren got significant boosts. Bale got a boost (though HFPA deemed him a co-lead and I agree). Room got a boost with Tremblay showing up. I think Elba got a boost in a race many thought he was falling out of.
The Big Short is the dark horse and could steal it all IMO. It’s competitive in Film Editing, Adapted Screenplay and maybe two acting races now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it in BP.
Joy absolutely was not seen in time. I actually think all 3 (Joy, H8 and Revenant) weren’t seen with enough time to build traction in any way, and I believe Leo getting was simply just a voting reflex, so assured is his front runner status he probably got nominated on trailer alone for some people. In fact, Leo’s nod, which again strikes me as a sort of inevitability, tells me that Revenant may have wound up in Ensemble had it been seen prior to thanksgiving. We’re talking a matter of a few days to build extra buzz. But Joy and H8 broke even later than Revenant, it’s important to note. It’s really impossible to know where those two stand. I think this announcement DOES spell good things potentially for Revenant.
Leo is in so they were all seen. Also, isn’t overhyped Biggest Star In the World In Another DOR Movie going to get in by voting reflex too? Face it. Joy’s a fail with critics and SAG.
Lol, do you happen to live in LA/NY? Are you in any guild? Do you attend guild screenings? If the answer to those questions is no, I’m afraid to tell you I know more about what was seen in time, especially with SAG which I am a member of and have been on the nominating committee. I know exactly when the first guild screenings were for all those movies. Would you like me to tell you? The first Revenant screening open to the SAG voting body was on November 30 at the AMC Century City. I was there. There was a tastemaker/AMPAS screening a couple days prior on the Fox lot. A handful of SAG Nom Com were there due to overlap. But most people that could nominate had their first chance to see it on the 30th. Joy’s first open screening was December 2 (on the Fox lot and I was also there) and Hateful Eight’s was December 4. None of those 3 movies sent out screeners. SAG ballots were due on December 7. Joy screened 3 times before that deadline in LA. Hateful Eight only twice. Revenant screened 7 times. You had to attend one of those screenings to be able to include the film in your thoughts. Many Nom Com members are working actors who rely on screeners, and a good percentage don’t live in the 4 major hubs of LA/NY/SF/London, so those people had literally no opportunity to see any of those 3 movies. And yet Leo is still on the list, which to me can only be conclusive proof that his narrative was THAT strong this year. But keep underestimating those films at your own peril.
Fishy hates feminists. He said he was glad Lawrence was not nominated because she had the gall to speak up for pay equity. You are busted Fishy.
How is Leo any more of a voting reflex than Jen?
A) Because Jen won before
B) Because Leo hasn’t
C) The narrative since Innaritu won last year was that Leo could potentially, “finally” win an Oscar acting in his next movie.
D) Because Jen won before
thats wht i think too cuz the revenant is getting pretty strong reviews and it has everything needed to get across the board nomination and we know AMPAS love trantino and i don’t buy Keaton and ruffalo cancelling each other out i mean if spotlight is really popular than it shouldn’t have been the case. i would also watch out for the big short as a dark horse
DGA pretty much will shake all of this out, especially if McKay or Roach end up on it.
They won’t.
“But to suggest that Carol, Brooklyn, The Revenant or Bridge of Spies took a hit here is silly because no one–or very few people–were expecting it to be in the Ensemble field.”
Yes, agreed. Same could be said for Room. Those are all still strong.
I don’t disagree with the premise of this post, but barring a lack of SPOTLIGHT nominations in key categories on Oscar morning (i.e. Picture, Director, Screenplay, or *any* acting nominations at all), there’s very little that could pop up between now and the announcement of the PGA winner that could be pointed at as a reasonable cause to assume SPOTLIGHT won’t win Best Picture. There are awards and announcements between now and then, but ultimately the Globes, the BFCAs, etc… don’t matter as much as SAG/PGA do, so it would be foolish advocacy to argue against them.
The one potential monkey wrench would be THE HATEFUL EIGHT, which absolutely didn’t screen in time for SAG (unlike JOY & THE REVENANT), and could theoretically surge, even if it doesn’t seem like the sort of thing that will upset SPOTLIGHT to me. Still, that is the film most likely to surprise with nominations on Oscar morning,, become a box office hit, or have a late-season surge.
So, yes, ROOM & CAROL got through this morning relatively unscathed (and yes, THE BIG SHORT is likely to be a Picture nominee), but it’s tough to make the argument for them as potential winners, given history (as well as any other factor you could point to such as Box office, Critics’ Awards, the films themselves, etc…).
I would argue that you’re forgetting about (or underestimating) the old “it’s not so much that it has to be NOMINATED for its ensemble, as it is that it has to HAVE a top 5 of the year ensemble in the first place, in order for the actors, the by far biggest portion of the Academy, to actually vote for it for Best Picture” argument. See Gravity (though that one, of course, also had screenplay nomination issues)! That’s what the 100% since 1996 SAG Ensemble nomination stat is really all about, and the reason movies like Carol or Brooklyn (etc.) not getting that nomination IS also a big deal (not that the race is over for them, though, but they have a bigger mountain to climb than before) – not just The Martian; the others you mention at least have the “not been seen by enough people” argument, which is, of course, answered by the “no time to build BP-consensus for such late releases” argument, but, still, there’s at least a debate to be had about that one… But, yeah, for The Martian to miss here, it’s inexcusable. That one is definitely the one that took the biggest hit, but, in my opinion, that’s because the late releases weren’t, apparently (given Joy’s reviews) such big threats to begin with.
Where is Kristen Stewart?
Maybe the SAG guys said to themselves, “Wait, 2014 was Kristen Stewart’s year….right? Not 2015. I mean, they screened Clouds of Sils Maria in Cannes 19 fucking months ago.”
“Clouds of Whosa What’s-it, now? uuuuhhhhh…fuck it, wasn’t Helen Mirren in something this year?”
She’s being considered bc the critics threw her bones, but that didn’t happen in time for it to impact SAG voters who would have not received screeners and not sought it out on their own.
Exactly where she was ALWAYS going to be: on the outside of this race looking in.
Straight Outta Compton made it, despite everyone constantly leaving it out of the predictions. seems it was getting the “yeah well thats a nice lil movie but lets get back to the real movies of carol, revenant , martian, etc”. well, they are a force to be taken seriously. shout out to donna langley who is backing this baby with universal money. i guess the actors really love it, and why shouldnt they. its the most enjoyable movie of the year. imho. and its imdb score is 8.1.
We can all agree it’s going to be a very unique awards season. I still think there are going to be surprises Oscar morning, and that SAG def will not match up with their lineup so closely. However, I am excited for Straight Outta Compton- I hope it makes it in the Best Picture race. It was one of the best film-going experiences I had, it was critically acclaimed with strong box-office. And I don’t think anyone would really complain. That being said, disappointed with Creed’s No-Show. Shame on the actors for ignoring Sylverster Stallone and Michael B. Jordan. Big WTF moment (if they didn’t get screeners, they at least could have gone and seen it in the theater as it was a WIDE release. Lazy folks).
Happy Blanchett made it. The question is – with the Best Actress race so wide open with 2 slots (I think Blanchett, Ronan and Larson are in), will Mara get a LEAD nomination? Or will voters keep her in supporting- where she’s bound to be more competitive, despite the category fraud. Can Jennifer Lawrence still get an Oscar nom for Joy? Sure she can. David O Russell is a miracle worker when it comes to getting voters to name check his actors. But her snub this morning means she’s not going to be our Oscar champion.
I think the dissing of The Martian is disgusting. It still makes it in on Oscar’s shortlist. Mad Max’s snub is more understandable (is it really a Best Ensemble movie when people think about it?)
More to come.
Mad Max is ensemble. However that ensemble has like 3 models with no or little acting experience and unknown character actors. So very understandable why it would not be nominate over films with pedigreed actors no matter how dull they were.
The Oscars will definitely have some huge surprises this year.
This just in: ”Mad Max: Fury Road” won Best Film at the Australian Academy Awards. And Miller won Director.
What other Australian movie was there this year ?
The other big victor at the AACTA Awards was ”The Dressmaker,” a revenge comedy-drama that swept the acting awards: Kate Winslet, Hugo Weaving and Judy Davis took home those prizes. And this movie also won the People’s Choice Award for Favorite Australian Film.
Well good things the Australians have finally seen the light. If only US could
Local sentiment.
We (including me) should have seen Trumbo coming. Never underestimate how much Hollywood likes films about itself.
“I don’t know what to say about Trumbo except that the actors really like it, clearly. They like it better than Brooklyn, Room, The Martian, Creed — man oh man.” Well…but they don’t, necessarily. Maybe this is just the SAG nominators really staying true to what they felt were the best acted movies and weren’t thinking of the Best Ensemble category as “Best Picture.” Four movies of these movies are traditional ensemble pics with large casts. Maybe movies like Carol and Brooklyn were held back because they have smaller, more intimate feels, and that’s not what set this group of nominators ablaze. And as for the 5th, while Beasts is only listing three actors, the work in the beginning of the film by the family is really potent. And while much of the duration of the movie is dominated by two actors, there is tremendous work being done by a very large cast in small roles around them. I think this might all be about the size of the canvas more than general feelings about the movies themselves.
Cant explain WHY The Martian and Brooklyn and Carol missed, but Im sure Trumbo made it in because its a well-liked movie about the INDUSTRY that contains a large cast and a cast full of SAG favorites over the years.
Its almost like a no-brainer if you really think about it. And remember, SAG is not AMPAS.
Best Ensemble is ABSOLUTELY treated as SAG’s Best Picture award by voters. They liked Trumbo better than at least The Martian, Room and Brooklyn for sure. The fact that Carol got both its big acting nods suggests that may have just missed out on Ensemble.
Historically, yes. But the nominators change every year, and doesn’t it seem at least plausible that they voted in the nominees that they felt had the best ensemble acting (in the ensemble acting category) and not what they felt the best movies were?
Unlikely, but I guess plausible.
I love the Beasts of No Nation notice. I feel like that film has been criminally overlooked so far.
I still don’t understand why people are so in love with The Martian. It’s an entertaining film and a crowd-pleaser but is it really the classic people are making it out to be? I’m sorry but no, no it’s not.
So the only possible conclusion is that “Star Wars” is going to win the oscar, and it has not been mentioned yet, because nobody has seen it so far.
bring it!
Yeah, ’cause Spotlight winning it is so much less logical of a conclusion…
The day the NFL accidentally sent ballots to SAG:
“And the MVP is…Christian Bale?!?”
As a member of Patriots Nation, I will endorse that choice.
Sorry for our victory over you last weekend 😉
That game made more sense than these nominations. 🙂
I just get this feeling that this year’s (major) award season is going to be messy. Rooney in best actress category in Golden Globes, now she’s in supporting. I go check goldderby website and quite a few of their predictions aren’t even in the nominee list.
Oh, and Joy isn’t even in. I guess Joy got mopped.
Joy is going to clean up at the Oscars. Guaranteed.
A very interesting wager. You’re also betting high on H8ful 8. You’re the lone voice for Joy at this point. Will be interesting.
I’m sticking to my guns!!
I already know what my NGNG will be on Oscar nominations day. Beasts of No Nation for everything: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Adapted Screenplay.
I didn’t even do NGNG for this but some of my actual guesses popped up here in the wrong categories, like Bale. I think BEASTS can’t count as NGNG anymore. It’s a real possibility.
Hmmm – but considering Keaton and Ruffalo didn’t get in – there wasn’t tremendous support for Spotlight. I think this is just one of those years that anything can happen. Throw the rule book out.
Yeah, but McAdams got in! Utimatley I think Keaton and Ruffalo canceled each other out.
Or maybe SAG voters thought their Ensemble nomination covered Keaton & Ruffalo, so they decided to single out other supporting actors who stood out more. But why single out Rachel McAdams? I’m not knocking her per se, but I didn’t the screenplay gave her any special to do …
Actually I think because Keaton and Ruffalo didn’t get in that shows the supporting actor category is too tough to call. McAdams getting in show Spotlight does have a whole lot of support.
If you think about it though, we’ve all been saying how many contenders there were but we only focused on a steady 5 or so. Trumbo, even though it’s been very quiet, always had a shot with Cranston even in SAG. Straight Outta Compton’s nomination, while somewhat out there, wasn’t an impossibility. The only real head scratchers are Helen Mirren for Woman in Gold, but I somewhat get it because she’s Helen Mirren, and Sarah Silverman. What truly confounds me is that Mirren got TWO nominations for films that were low on radars. Two nominations aren’t unheard of and sometimes somebody will get nominated for their “big” performance and then get noticed again because, who knows? But for two performances in movies that have barely been talked about since release? That’s what’s odd.
Well, we me always kept COMPTON and Cranston around. But when you only have 5 choices how can you really narrow it down? I’m sure some of these were really close this time.
You also have to realize that these are normal folks and they probably nominated Cranston, Mirren, Elba, Silverman, etc., because they’re fans of their previous work more than of these specific titles. I think that actually goes for everyone nominated by SAG.
The nominations come from a committee and the winners are voted on by the many thousands of people in the acting industry. But who knows? This is too difficult to even break down the whys.
Yeah but I thought the committee were random SAG members?
Oh that I do not know.
Yes they’re randomly selected every year. I was on that committee once.
Well, we have our dilemma. Which is worse — having the same damn stale list of nominees from every group, or being surprised, usually unpleasantly? I’ll take the latter. Uniform bad taste is worse than divergent bad taste
I agree. For the first time in years it makes sense to have so many film awards.
It’s still up to PGA/DGA to call Best Picture. It’s an unusual year, so old stats don’t apply.
If a film gets a nom for Best Ensemble, but is really more of a two-hander (looking at you, Beasts), is that indicative of disproportionate love from SAG voters? I think it does.
With these results for Room, Brooklyn, Carol, and Joy, Women got a big metal-happy-face-looking plate in their faces today, and I’m not happy
Room, Brooklyn and Carol got in with nominations. Only Joy was left out completely. Unless you mean ensemble?
I meant for ensemble
Room and Carol got the nominations that were deserved. Larson, Blanchett, Mara…Ronan got in too. Why need an ensemble nomination when the women were recognized? People treat “best ensemble” at the SAGs too often as best picture.
Because ensemble = best Picture, well, sort of and some were hoping that one of lady-led movies would win BP. But many of those also banked on Joy to be the one cause JLaw “I want 20M per picture” essay. egg in the face.
Yeah I know that, to many, best ensemble = best picture…but then it should say best picture and not best ensemble. Many of the actors nominated try to command a high salary though. I remember Black Mass was delayed a little bit because Johnny Depp required such a huge salary and yet here he is.
You are against pay equity. That her essay bugs you so much speaks volumes about you.
Nope, I’m against false activism. She was no activist until 2 things happend:
a) The Fappening
b) Sony leak
Without Sony leak there wouldn’t be equal pay activism on her part. She forgets to credit Sony Leak which caused uproar that a nobody like Renner was paid more than a somebody like JLaw for equal/smaller role. So her team seized the opportunity but she is now selling the whole thing as her bravery and idea. Yet that wouldn’t happen without the leak that had social media demand justice for Jlaw. Now she’s trying to convince everyone that she cares, but when already overpaid star wants more, regular people don’t relate to that. In fact, many actors and actresses don’t relate either. Renner (“I’m not HR”), Blunt (“we should stop talking abou sexism”), Scarlett (“I”m equally paid to Evans and hemsworth”), Winslet (“it’s vulgar to talk about money”) and Mara (“what about teacher’s pay?”) obviously don’t relate.
The Fappening was an event that gave her an opportunity to come off sympathetic, which is crucial when backlash starts to mount (as evident during Oscar campaign 2013 when she wa sup for American Hustle). Instead, they chose condescending, accusing, attacking tone. She called everyone who saw her smut a criminal and accomplice and what not. Stupid. Messianic complex if there was ever one. She used to be relaly relatable, down to earth person but now fame’s gone to her head, she thinks she can start a revolution. LOL. Celebs never changed anything cause they are fake. Bottom line is, everything they do is for their own publicity. And that includes “I want 20M so I’m gonna pretend I care for other woman” essay.
It feeds into the “women’s films aren’t important enough for Best Picture” narrative that Sasha has discussed many times – no winner since 04. I see what you’re saying but I also see someone saying that if Carol were about two dudes it might be winning more year-end awards now (Brokeback did)
I understand what you’re saying. I may have misinterpreted your original comment.
I think every year we all forget, or most of us do, that SAG even though they have an ensemble acting category and being actors they should choose a group of actors who did the best acting, they really are just picking their “Best Picture”. I still would have guessed THE MARTIAN in that case. So anyway, their nominees are the best movies they saw. I don’t really think who or how many are in the cast has much to do with it.
I just walked in the house and saw this list. lolololol I can’t even. I thought I was going to be smooth sailing this year with 2 of my very favorite actors getting nods here. Benicio Del Toro in Supporting and Sean Bean as a cast member of THE MARTIAN. but NOoooOOOOooo… Saint West preserve us!
But here’s what I actually hate about SAG. No Strika. He was my favorite there. Three people nominated for BEASTS. That’s fubar. I started hating SAG for that reason when they didn’t nominate Jacek Koman for MOULIN ROUGE! It’s that kind of above the line/below the line whatever the fuck that makes me think it’s worse than People’s Choice.
I can’t even be happy about STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON right now.
Did anybody see TRUMBO? I always kept Cranston on my lists because of him, but did anyone here actually see the movie? I don’t remember anyone talking about it.
I liked Trumbo. You won’t get that a lot on this site.
I liked Trumbo too, despite its flaws. The ensemble cast was enjoyable and I laughed more during Trumbo than I did the vast majority of supposed comedies released this year.
One of my pet peeves about SAG Ensemble is how they determine who is or isn’t eligible. I guess it has to do with billing, but it’s ridiculous when one movie features only 3 actors, while another movie can list 20.
Just watched it last weekend. It was perfectly fine entertainment. Cranston can carry a film (although it does become a bit hokey at times) but Mirren didn’t do much at all. That nomination is a real headscratcher.
As I’m wondering about these nominations the lyrics to “Grown Ass Man” come to mind. Hmm… I intend to see TRUMBO, but that’s the impression I got since no one was talking about it.
Let’s call it what it is: an Alan Arkin.
“saint west preserve us” lmao
I saw Trumbo. Felt like another of Jay Roach’s HBO movies, like Recount or Game Change, which I don’t mean as a compliment. Very un-cinematic. I though Michael Stuhlbarg was very good in it and Cranston was solid (I thought Diane Lane was pretty good too). But Helen Mirren hams it up too much for my taste. That nomination is embarassing, imo.
TRUMBO is excellent. Very pleased for Ensemble and Cranston (Mirren I could take or leave).
There are going to be A LOT of NGNG winners…I saw someone picked Helen Mirren for Woman in Gold. Congrats to you for that. My hat’s fucking off. This is the craziest lineup I have ever seen.
It’s hilarious that there are so many NGNG noms but you can bet your ass that winners will be variations of what everyone expect to win – Spotlight, Larson/Ronan, Leo/Fass, Rylance, Mara/Vikander. have balls and award Silverman in Actress, Mirren in Supporting, Cranston in Actor, Bale in Supporting, anything but Spotlight in Ensemble. Not gonna happen.
this shit happens every year. why do we bother? our dreams always get KILLED on January. im seriously predicting the worst on nomination day. the best thing though were the nominations for ensemble.
Dream a littler smaller, darling. I learned to do that years ago as far as awards season goes. Just hope they show up in their fancy outfits. It’s the best we can do.
It would be easier to celebrate idiosyncrasy if SAG’s choices, on the whole, made sense. But these are whacked. The supporting actress category is a mess (if you include category fraud). I’m glad for COMPTON, but TRUMBO? Even BEASTS, as others have noted, doesn’t exactly reach the level of ensemble. Etc. And as one of your commenters said, it can’t have been easy to fuck up best actress this year, but they managed to do it.
Sad that Carol didn’t make it in Best Ensemble. I mean really Trumbo over Carol? I’m not sure the Oscars will follow suit, this year is too weird and all over the place, it’s still wide open methinks. We won’t know until we do know!
Trumbo over Carol. So much for the year of female-driven movies. Also, Big Short, Compton, Beats, Spotlight, all all-male or largely male driven.
“So much for the year of female-driven movies.”
This, a thousand times this
Why are do you hate women?
I don’t. I’m just stating the obvious. They did pick male-driven movies for best ensemble.
How, oh how did they NOT nominate Steve Jobs for Best Cast?! It’s easily better than all five of the ones they chose.
Even with their films fading, Depp and Redmayne stay strong. Is it me, or are they becoming a threat to Leo? Specially Depp.
LOL, Cranston is bigger treat considering how much they loved his movie. Actor, Sup. Actress, Ensemble. is it going to lose all?
I am happy for Cranston, but i dont see it happen over Leo. But Depp as the overdue label too.
And bloody Fassbomb has rapid-fire Sorkinese gimmick. Anyone can win this.
true
Depp yes, Redmayne no
I keep thinking that if Get on Up had been released in 2015, Boseman would have had a nomination lock and a solid chance at victory
Why? I really liked that movie but how would he go up against Depp and Leo?
Depp and Leo have a lot of naysayers. As a general thing Best Actor doesn’t look as strong as it did last year, or most years. Just a feeling, can’t prove it
And in the midst of all of this SAG confusion, Mad Max: Fury Road waits patiently in the shadows…
Unless Theron and Miller miss out on Globe tomorrow…
Then…they live and they die. No living again, Oscars-wise, I guess.
If Miller wins Globe, does he make a comment about “shiny and gold, witness me HFPA”
That’ll do, Pete Meisel. That’ll do
Spotlight is sitting pretty, but if DGA sticks on Roach or McKay than watch the holy hell out.
DGA’s totally going to nominate McKay, lmao! This year. ♥
Absurd isn’t it? But Big Short has Brad MF’ing Pitt in its corner.
This will be the craziest Best Director campaign ever.
Also, hotness known as Fukunaga rises!
So Best Director field could be Tom McCarthy (who no one apart from Wire fans could pick out of a lineup of two people), Adam McKay (fresh off of Anchorman 2), Todd Haynes (once again channeling his inner Douglas Sirk), and then the gonzo auteurs (Miller, Inarritu or Tarantino)
Oy! McKay is fresh off scripting Ant Man. And that was a good script.
Did anyone see Tom McCarthy’s other movie this year: ”The Cobbler,” starring Adam Sandler? At Rotten Tomatoes, it’s got a 9% rotten rating. Compare that to ”Spotlight” (98%)!
Could McCarthy win an Oscar … and a Razzie for Director? 😉
Yes
Didn’t Sandra Bullock pull that feat off as well?
Most amazing headline ever!
“(people will love to smear that pie all over my face for an eternity), ”
And mine, lol.
These nominations are a lesson NEVER to discount anything this early in the race. REMEMBER THIS FOR ALWAYS.
I can’t believe it so many shockers! I’m still trying to recover from the announcements.
I’m re-reading the nominations.
Thoughts: (1) Is it possible that having Spotlight stand alone and suffer all the heat (and inevitable backlash), that the door is now open for something else to rush in there as a popular choice? I’m think Force Awakens or Hateful Eight, but it could be something else, too. Seems like there’s an opening for a competitor. (2) I also just realized that Bridge of Spies was among the big losers, which is something of a surprise. Does Trumbo take its place as the period film that garners many nominations but has no chance? (3) Let me ask this delicately: Is it possible that the cross-section used for this year’s SAG nominations skewed younger and/or more diverse than the full SAG body, and, importantly, than the entire Academy. I just don’t see Compton flying with the Academy, especially in lieu of other Academy-favorite genres, but I could be wrong (hopefully).
1. Yes. Spotlight is Boyhooding. Adjust resentment expectations accordingly.
2. You mean Brooklyn (though Ronan could win). Neither Trumbo nor BoS will get BP noms.
3. I know how this will sound, but Compton could easily be this year’s Selma: BP nod, not much else
1. Yes, but what will be the Birdman to Spotlight this year? (If there is one.) Could The Revenant or Joy re-emerge with the later guilds? I personally think The Revenant will get PGA and DGA nominations.
2. True on Brooklyn, and a whole lot of other films that suffered a blow today.
3. In the case of Compton, though, I think a BP nomination would exceed expectations. I think Selma was shooting for more than nominations.
Whatever the Birdman will be it will definitely not be Joy.
Bit of a difference: Spotlight has gained its current big advantage over the field by doing much better than the other (probable) contenders WITH THE INDUSTRY (SAG), whereas Boyhood (and The Social Network, and so on) over-performed compared to its rivals, like Birdman, almost exclusively with critics’ groups, give or take a BAFTA. Now, if you don’t agree that this fact alone makes the whole “Spotlight is this year’s Boyhood” argument look exceedingly shaky, to say the least, I don’t know what to tell you…
Helen Mirren is this year’s Betty White. “Did she star in something this year? Let’s nominate it!” And I say that as a devoted Helen Mirren fan.
I’m happy to see Straight Outta Compton for Best Ensemble however. It’s thinking outside the box but in a good way. Plus it is impossible to reward Idris Elba too much.
Helen Mirren is the new Judy Dench and Blanchett is the new Meryl Streep in terms of reflexive nominations.
the revenant is my dark horse best picture contender but yea it really is spotlights to loose right now but u never know…
I think I’m having a bad dream…