Telluride seems to be the premiere launching pad for the Oscar winning Best Picture. With very little time for opinions to settle, the earlier films tend to be the ones that stick around and the later breaking ones don’t have enough time to really build themselves as a sure thing. Time is the best critic and if a film like Mad Max: Fury Road and Spotlight can stay fresh and relevant all of these months later there must be more to them than the temporary buzz that afflicts festival goers.
Now that people have started voting, two conflicting consensuses threaten to take the race in wildly different directions. The SAG version – which has diversity in choices like Beasts of No Nation and Straight Outta Compton, not to mention Trumbo, The Big Short and Spotlight. On the other side of the room, where critics tend to dwell, is a different story of Best Picture – one that is less diverse. On that side, the consensus is shaped by The Revenant, Room, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, and yes, Spotlight and The Big Short from the other side of the room.
Since the Critics Choice miss one title from their nominations that the Academy voters pick, like Philomena or The Blind Side or American Sniper – you have to wonder what films are missing from the Critics Choice and whether that will be the case this year. Of course, it could turn out to be a year where they get all of the films up for Oscar, like 2011. Which ten did they choose today?
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Sicario
Spotlight
One of those has to go because the Academy cannot pick ten, mathematically speaking. They can only pick nine, or have done since they started their new system, beginning in 2011. One has to go and maybe one will be added. Which films aren’t on their list that were expected to be? Well, Trumbo isn’t there. Neither is Straight Outta Compton, and neither is Inside Out or Beasts of No Nation. An out of left field choice could theoretically be 45 Years or The Hateful Eight. It’s possible.
What we do know is that a consensus is forming and the films listed above, with the possible exception of Sicario, are that consensus one the one side of the room. The SAG ensemble side of the room paints a different picture, obviously. We can’t yet know until the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild announce where that is going. It would seem as though consensus is really strong on the names that keep getting on the Best Director lists:
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Todd Haynes, Carol
There is no question, however, that one film seems to be both the frontrunner and the default choice. When the Los Angeles Film Critics got together to debate Best Picture, they couldn’t agree on any movie. Votes were split up all over the place. In that scenario, Spotlight came out the winner as the most broadly liked overall, and that is probably its ace in the hole heading into the Producers Guild where it could solidify its lead.
If I were to name any film I thought could dethrone Spotlight, I would name Mad Max: Fury Road. Mad Max fits the modern rule of finding Best Picture, which is usually either seen or released before Telluride (No Country for Old Men, The Artist) or seen at Telluride (Birdman, Argo, The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire). Mad Max has had much time to percolate and is peaking right now. It accidentally flew under the radar all of this time because no one thought it had any chance of winning any awards. The combination of factors might make it appealing – George Miller’s wildly artistic take on the future, with a strong female lead, a diverse cast and one of the biggest visual spectacles of the year. More importantly, Mad Max is a chance for the industry to stand up for practical visual effects, for the crafts people whose jobs are being replaced by computers. If Mad Max is the winner, like Birdman last year, that sends a message to Hollywood about the kinds of blockbusters the industry would like to see more of.
If the race really is down to Spotlight vs. Mad Max: Fury Road you won’t find two more opposite movies. One is a movie of people shouting and things exploding. It’s visually dynamic, bursting with color, moves at a rapid-fire pace. It is driven by a tough female on the run from people who want to kill her. It is raw and gory – there has never been anything like it. The other is quiet, contemplative, exacting, deliberately subdued with color and performances. Its colors are meant to mimic the newsroom. The journalists are supposed to try to be objective while the story pulls them in. One feels brand new – the other feels traditional. If I know my Oscar voters it seem very likely which direction they’ll head in. On the other hand, didn’t Birdman’s win last year seem a bit odd for those kinds of voters?
But: Mad Max does not have a SAG ensemble nomination, which would put it in Braveheart territory if it were to win. That still makes it a long shot pick, for Best Picture anyway. All roads lead back to Spotlight.
The other movie to keep an eye on right now is Adam McKay’s equally original The Big Short. It breaks the rule of being seen or released before Telluride, but it does have a SAG ensemble nomination – which is big – and is slowly gaining a strong consensus around it. The one major thing it has going for it is the current running through the upcoming election right now, particularly among liberals – the idea that Wall Street is corrupt and has ruined this country. McKay’s film is somewhat different from Michael Lewis’ equally brilliant book. McKay is throwing out an indictment of American culture overall. The downside is that unless you’re willing to forgo understanding exactly what is going on in terms of the credit default swaps you’re going to be lost.
In the end, this race seems to always get back to Spotlight being the winner, even with the things about it that make it seem like it might not:
1) being released from an independent studio, which would be only the 4th time in 88 years of Oscar history.
2) the Los Angeles Film critics choice for Best Picture has rarely gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. It happened with The Hurt Locker but before that, you have to go all the way back to 1993
3) It is on the understated side for your usual Best Picture winner – a debatable point and perhaps, like all of the other points, insignificant. In the end, they pick the movie they like best and chances are everyone will agree that they like Spotlight best.
Most of the time we imagine various scenarios taking place when the obvious answer has been there all along. Probably no one, except the extremely bored, will pick any other film than Spotlight to win. Some are more comfortable taking risks in predicting but most play it safe because otherwise you’re stuck with egg on your face when the obvious winner emerges. Thus, expect to see 100% unification on the Spotlight prediction for Best Director. I also expect the consensus to start to form around a split, with George Miller winning for Best Director for Mad Max. When the vote splits like that – which has only happened twice since Oscar expanded Best Picture – director has gone to the more artistically daring (Gravity, Life of Pi) while Picture went to the more somber (12 Years a Slave) or the crowd pleasing frontrunner (Argo).
Since most of the films are out right now, let’s look at the Rotten Tomatoes negative rating test. For the most part, a film with a low negative rating can win Best Picture, while a film with a higher negative rating usually can’t – with a few notable exceptions like Crash and Chicago. It’s more difficult to judge a film on its positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes than its negative because only the negative number indicates divisiveness. For all of everyone’s talk about Birdman being divisive (myself included) its Rotten Tomato negative score indicates it wasn’t, really.
Since Oscar expanded and began using the preferential ballot:
Reviews Counted: 262 / Rotten: 21
12 Years a Slave
The Hurt Locker
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Reviews Counted: 234 / Rotten: 21
The Martian
Sicario
Straight Outta Compton
Creed
Brooklyn
Spotlight
Carol
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
The Revenant
Reviews Counted: 51 /Rotten: 9
More divisive
Black Mass
Steve Jobs
Trumbo
Frontrunner heading in: Leonardo DiCaprio – film will have a Best Picture nomination, plus many more. He’s overdue. He’s well liked, but is his work in this film enough to win?
Spoiler: Bryan Cranston – his sudden emergence in the race, his popularity with actors and likability overall makes him a huge threat.
Dark Horse: Johnny Depp – though the film itself isn’t as well liked as it needs to be.
Frontrunner heading in: Brie Larson – the main reason being that Room is doing better overall than the competition.
Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn – she could easily win, and if Brooklyn makes a much bigger showing come nominations time, she could very well be the winner.
Dark Horse: Alicia Vikander for the Danish Girl if put in lead. But I think she will actually be a bigger problem in the supporting category if she gets a double nomination for Danish Girl and Ex Machina.
Frontrunner heading in: There isn’t one – it’s completely wide open but if I had to pick, I’d say Paul Dano
Spoilers: potentially, one of the Spotlight actors if it wins Best Picture, Argo style, taking Pic, Screenplay, Supporting Actor. But which one? Whomever is nominated could win.
Dark Horse:Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Frontrunner heading in: Toss up between Alicia Vikander for Danish Girl, Rooney Mara for Carol
Spoilers: Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina
Dark Horse: Helen Mirren for Trumbo — it’s all happening.
Frontrunner heading in: Tom McCarthy by default because his is in the Best Picture frontrunner
Spoiler: George Miller and his artistic triumph Mad Max: Fury Road
Dark Horse: Adam McKay for The Big Short or Ridley Scott for The Martian
Spoiler: Inside Out
Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short or Carol
Spoiler: Room
Animated: Inside Out
Foreign Language: Son of Saul
Documentary: Amy or Look of Silence
Cinematography: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant
Production Design: Carol or Mad Max Fury Road
Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Big Short
Sound / Sound Editing: probably Mad Max: Fury Road
If a run of the mill action / car chase film can get Oscar consideration, then if it strikes big with critics and fans, the Force Awakens should get a hell of a lot more.
Hear, hear!
Late to this discussion cos I’ve been basically non-stop posting about all the critics awards lately.
Two things:
– It’s not mathematically impossible for there to be ten Best Picture Oscar nominees.
– This is just a matter of opinion, but how are Paul Dano, Sylvester Stallone and any/all of the Spotlight actors more likely contenders to win Supporting Actor than Mark Rylance, given that Rylance has turned up pretty much everywhere so far and has won more than any of his competition?
Though I feel Dano has a fantastic chance at winning, anybody in the supporting actor category can win. Especially Rylance since a lot of people clearly love him. I haven’t seen Spotlight, Creed or Bridge of Spies (this has been the slowest theater-going experience for me in many years) but I have seen Love & Mercy, but I’m not proclaiming Dano the winner because I love his performance so much. It’s because of the love he’s gotten in a few lead categories.
even Michael Shannon and Idris Elba are more likely winners than Dano, Stallone or a Spotlight actor.
Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Carol and Star Wars just knocked out of the Makeup/Hairstyling race.
The 7 semifinalists are:
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Black Mass
Concussion
Legend
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant
Gee, I never heard of ”The 100-Year-Old Man” movie. The trailer makes it look like ”Forrest Gump.”’
Surprised that ”Star Wars’ got dropped. Ditto, ‘The Danish Girl,’ which is all about transformation.
I hate the idea that it’s narrowed down to only 3 nominees. Why not 5, like all the other categories?
Hmm. Some fun stuff in there. Most surprised about The Danish Girl and Cinderella missing. Tapley said Star Wars make-up was good, but fleeting.
Holy crap…I had Danish Girl as the likely winner. I keep forgetting about the bakeoffs.
I like how the 2 movies that stand the strongest chance at winning picture and/or director at the Oscars (Mad Max and Spotlight) have a combined total of 5 GG nominations.
Seems clear now that one of the Spotlight boys won’t won supporting actor right? Since they had no GG or SAG noms. So that clears up the supporting actor mess a bit. I’m thinking Stallone is the frontrunner for that race and i’m rooting for him or Dano.
I like you saying Dano is the front runner for Sup Actor 🙂
The only thing that makes me detract from predicting Spotlight for Best Picture is it seems like a – bland choice. Are voters THAT excited about it? Passion helped films like Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, The King’s Speech, The Artist and yes- even Argo, take the top honor. Is Spotlight a movie they’ll love- or simply respect? It feels very much like Boyhood last year. People assumed it would win because it was the safe, default choice. Birdman was edgier, and much more artistic. That’s why I think there’s going to be more surge if Mad Max gets in. THAT seems like a film voters will rally behind.
well, Mad Max is also the kind of film voters will surge AWAY from (into the safe bosom of Spotlight, perhaps?)
As much as i want MMFR to win what you said is exactly what i feel. Its is too crazy and without enough exposition. An Academy member said that it felt like a really long car chase.
exactly, the lack of exposition will cost it a great many votes.
I think that BIRDMAN being about Hollywood itself had a lot more to do with its win than it feeling ‘edgier’ than BOYHOOD (which was a pretty radical departure production wise itself from the usual movie). Show Business tales often have a leg up with voters who see ‘themselves’ in the characters onscreen (Birdman, Argo, The Artist, Chicago).
Supporting actor is very open but I do think Dano will emerge the victor. He’s taking a few lead actor trophies when he’s campaigning as supporting. It is a bravura performance.
But a lot of people thought Keaton should have won last year. If he were nominated again, I think it would be difficult to not give it to him again. Not that Dano didn’t do a great job.
If Keaton got in with SAG and GG then I’d think that same thing. But Spotlight actors are cancelling each other out. With such a crazy year almost anybody can win. Keaton winning at NYFCC (for best actor!) and then missing almost everywhere else is baffling. When I saw he won it I knew we were in for a crazy season.
Dano?? Not even close! He would already be lucky to even be nominated (if he can’t get in SAG, then why he would be a victor?). Rylance is the only lock and consequently the frontrunner at this point…
Marcia Gay Harden and Christophe Waltz say hi. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo won best editing without winning anything else and no best picture/director nomination. Two years in a row we saw picture and director split, last year almost had that happen and we might see it again this year. Boyhood and Social Network won almost every award out there and still lost picture/director. Argo won best picture with no best director nomination despite Affleck having won the BAFTA, GG, BFCA and DGA. Quentin Tarantino wins screenplay Oscars despite not getting in WGA at all (though because of being ineligible). “Rules” get broken more often than you think.
I got to see THE BIG SHORT yesterday. All the pulse-poundingness I couldn’t find in SPOTLIGHT was there. I liked SPOTLIGHT just fine but it was less than I expected. THE BIG SHORT was more than I hoped. SICARIO is still my favorite movie of the year by a smidge but I’m preparing to give up the ghost on that one getting anything. I really think 2015 has a good number of future classics. Thanks, movie peeps. 🙂
“McKay is throwing out an indictment of American culture overall.” (SPOILERS) Yeah. It’s great. I felt the still photos were sort of saying ‘Here’s what you [the audience] were doing instead of paying attention’. Because if people didn’t realize what was happening to their neighbors because they were too busy buying the newest iPhone to notice then it’s their fault. I thought the cameo explainers were meant for them. If not then it just would have been regular explainers.
I’m happy for all the MAD MAX: FURY ROAD fans. It’s not my thing but it’s a quality motion picture. It is a great spectacle that you still get the full effect of even at home. I wasn’t fit for theater viewing when it was out so I ended up watching it on my small TV. You still get how grandiose it is. That’s a good thing.
so TFA reactions are in and when you filter out obligatory BestMovieEva tweets that all movies get after first ever public screening, it appears that it’s fine but no game changer. Interestingly, most un-blown away are the most invested twitterati/critics/bloggers/whatever – Farachi, Mendelsohn, Cohen, McWeeny, Buchanan, etc – so I think this will play much better with general audience/casual viewers than geeks. So the less expectations the better the movie.
In short, MMFR should be very safe for nominations, 800 pound gorilla is more like 500 pound one.
I have to check out some of those tweets. I don’t like that Lucas didn’t do them and Abrams had some putzy things to say of late but if it’s a good movie I’ll be fair about it. I read a few about the repeatedness of it. That’s not necessarily wrong. But if it looks more like a cash grab than an actual artistic endeavor, then it’s on.
I didn’t get the feeling that it’s a cash grab, just too derivative of OT and slavishly fan service-y, as if they were afraid to be more original. but it does try to build on OT and take the characters further. it’s just that it’s all been-there-done-that. That’s what I’m getting from people who cared to elaborate more.
For what it’s worth, Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter thinks ”The Force Awakens” could make the Best Picture cut and adds, ”Frankly, I wouldn’t be shocked if Abrams gets a Best Director nom.” He also says he’s seen tweets from some Academy members raving.
So did they after Creed.
It’s looking unlikely that ”Creed” will make Best Picture, but Stallone certainly looks like he could make the Oscar ballot. Before ”Creed” opened to raves, I doubt anyone thought that …
My point exactly. We have to see how things develop when the hype starts to die down a bit.
Yeah. As history has shown, there will be surprising Oscar inclusions … and omissions.
Pete Hammond of Deadline.com reports: ”In what may not be an unprecedented move (but probably is), the Academy is doing a very rare thing this weekend as ”Star Wars: The Force Awakens” opens, scheduling its official Academy screening twice at their Goldwyn Theatre in Beverly Hills. It will screen for members Saturday afternoon (followed by a Q&A with director J.J. Abrams and producer Kathleen Kennedy) and then again Sunday morning for members and their families. Usually, in a bend-over-backward attempt to be transparent in fairness to everyone, movies get only one official screening at the Goldwyn which is certainly the case for the weekend’s other official Academy screenings including The Revenant and Anomalisa.” And a studio source tells Hammond that its Oscar campaign is ”in the works.”
Dark horse in best actor Johnny Depp and in best supporting actress Helen Mirren? What a laugh. What about Michael Fassbender? Jennifer Jason Leigh? Kate Winslet? And I believe Mara is going lead, and Vikander will canceled by splitting votes.
If Helen Mirren were to make it in for Trumbo (just saw it yesterday, meh movie, good performances and craft), I think that would be a shame.
I LOVE Helen Mirren and have her nominated in my own personal lists for performances that she wasn’t actually nominated for. But I found her Hedda Hopper performance to be quite slight. Fun, sure. But slight. Heck, Diane Lane had more screentime and was better than her in the same movie!
There are other actresses who would be much more deserving this year for those 4th/5th spots (Elizabeth Banks, Joan Allen, Marion Cotillard, and the list goes on).
If Paul Dano made it into Supporting, that would be great. I don’t see how he could be the frontrunner, though.
Thinking that would be Mark Rylance (several wins already), Stallone (narrative), or a Spotlight actor if they made it in. Supporting Actor is such a fun mess because a good 9-10 guys are fighting for 5 spots. Tremblay? Del Toro? Hardy? Elba? Shannon? Who, of them, is making it in, too? And can any of them challenge for the win?
I have to say, unless there is some underground AMPAS faction that IS loving Brooklyn and will nominate it for BP next month … I’m surprised by it’s less-than-stellar showing thus far. Yes, Ronan is playing for the WIN, and yes it is making lots of Top 10 lists. But it feels like a fringggggge player for BP right now and, I figured it could be a Top 5 player only a week ago. — Fabulous reviews, stellar cast, nice craftwork, right up AMPAS’ alley, strong box office (which is more that can be said for other films of its ilk this season).
According to many Oscar pundits the AMPAS love ”Brooklyn”! Even though it didn’t receive BP from GG, I still have it in my top 5 for Academy BP. I firmly believe it will be nominated for 5 awards!!
The London Film Critics just announced nominations, for what it’s worth…
Stronger than usual support for AMY & 45 YEARS, of course… CAROL gets the most noms.
A few totally bizarre (and not even worthy) mentions as well such as Swinton in TRAINWRECK and Colman in THE LOBSTER.
THE MARTIAN seems to have been *ONLY* nominated for Director… maybe I’m missing something, since I’m reading these off Twitter, but that’s really strange if true. Admittedly Scott’s a Brit, so maybe it’s to be taken in the same context as those Colman/Swinton noms.
Okay, THE MARTIAN is in Picture too, it turned out.
link?
https://twitter.com/londoncritics
The site appears to be down.
Partial list here:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/carol-leads-london-critics-nominations-848915?utm_source=twitter
the full list seems to be here: http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/carol-45-years-and-tom-hardy-lead-london-critics-nominations-1201661539/
Does London Critics matter ? Anyway good on them for pushing 45 Years and Rampling.
Haynes- Scott- Miller-Innaratu seem to be turning up in all the noms and i cannot think of a list without these 3. Also McCarthy got left out.
Great choices
Critics Choice is missing The Hateful Eight, which will also be nominated in Best Director. Room, The Martian and Sicario will drop out. Only 8 nominees. Carol, Mad Max and The Revenant lead in nomination counts.
I feel like this assessment is clear as day?
With all due respect, your assessment that The Martian will drop out is as dusty as the storm that hits the Ares III in said movie…;)
The Martian will get 1 nom, Visual Effects. It is outshined by Mad Max and probably Star Wars in every other tech category–it’ll lose out on both Sounds, Cinematography and Production Design to both of those two. I doubt the branches give 3 spots to sci-fi fare. Production Design typically includes period pieces. Cinematography goes way for traditional. And the Sound categories are PACKED, and usually include films with much more gun-use. If The Martian can’t even pick up below-the-lines, it isn’t getting in BP with only 1 or 2 other nominations.
Sorry, kids.
Fair enough, that you think so, but why be so cocksure about it?
Trust me, I will be here to remind you post-nomination day if your ‘1 (or 2) noms for The Martian’ prediction turns out to be wrong;)
Cool. I hope you remind yourself of this thread if the opposite holds true.
Sure thing.
Just did my own tally of where I predict The Martian to hit home with the Academy. Even by my most conservative estimate it will get 6 nominations, and that’s excluding nominations for screenplay and actor, which I find more likely than not. So my prediction is actually 8 noms, but no fewer than 6. Let’s see…
It is true Star Wars and, maybe, Hateful Eight will throw a huge wrench into the mix but I think Martian at least has VFX, sound editing, mixing, editing and production design. It’s not far off from adapted screenplay too. This is a very interesting year when the sci-fi-esque pictures (Martian, Mad Max, Star Wars, Ex Machina) are steering the Oscar ship. To my mind Ex Machina has a better chance than others in supporting actress and original screenplay with decent shots at VFX and production design.
“Room, The Martian and Sicario will drop out.”
I would have no particular problems with that scenario (haven’t seen Sicario yet, though – will do so very soon).
Also, I agree The Hateful Eight is probably getting in.
“As of now, however, the Best Picture race seems mostly decided”
That could easily have been said for BOYHOOD last year as well as for BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN 10 years ago. They were winning everything, piling up record breaking Best Picture awards and easily dominating Top 10 lists. The Big Prize was virtually in the bag… but then we all know what happened on Oscar night! I’m still dismayed but really, it makes me chuckle.
Slight differences with those two examples:
1. BROKEBACK was a much more divisive film overall than SPOTLIGHT. Remember all those old codgers who refused to even Watch the movie? Save for maybe one or two extreme Catholic church supporters, who really hates SPOTLIGHT and what it stands for?
2. BOYHOOD also had some Motion Picture Home retirees scratching their heads over: ‘What the hell kind of film is this?!! A movie shot over 12 years? Huh?’ Plus, Linklater is an indie darling centered in Austin, not Hollywood.
Not saying that SPOTLIGHT is a shoe-in by any means, but, it has more in common with across the board popular winners like KING’S SPEECH, THE ARTIST, OUT OF AFRICA etc. than BOYHOOD or BROKEBACK.
”’Brokeback” swept the critics’ awards, like few movies ever have, AND, unlike ”Boyhood,” it won industry prizes, too: the DGA and PGA. Plus, BAFTA. The movie was divisive … only if you were a homophobe. Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis reacted with disdain and disgust over this gay Western love story, saying that ”John Wayne would be rolling over in his grave.” They openly boasted that they wouldn’t watch it, let alone vote for it, and neither would their fellow Academy members (read: older, white straight men). It’s still one of the worst moments in Oscar history.
But, that IS the point I was making on BROKEBACK – that there WERE homophobes that refused to even consider the movie for Best Picture. It was divisive in that sense.
You do make a good point about the lack of BOYHOOD’s ‘industry’ support. Which is again what I was saying about movie types who just didn’t get what the movie was about.
“That could easily have been said for BOYHOOD last year”
Except that it couldn’t, because Birdman had a SAG Ensemble nomination (AND was widely expected to win the award, as well, like Spotlight this year), which is more than you can say for any of Spotlight’s strongest challengers. And there was no evidence whatsoever that it was less loved by the industry than Boyhood (even the editing snub hadn’t happened yet). There IS strong evidence (the SAG ensemble nominations) that Spotlight is more loved by the industry (in this case, the actors, the biggest group) than any of its (real) challengers. I can only see a reasonably plausible case for a The Big Short upset at this point, but I think most would agree that’s unlikely.
Brooklyn has *3* Rotten Tomatoes, not 13.
As much as I would love Miller to win Director (and even BP), i think there won’t be a split this year and it’s Spotlight that will triumph. Each season when the front runners emerge there is a lot of hope that maybe by some chance they’ll have the decency to spread the wealth. “I mean it’s only fair, let that movie take BP and the other BD, in that case everybody wins.” But history has proven many times it doesn’t work that way, and it was especially painful (at least for me) last year, There are enough exeptions in the recent history to give us each year a spark of hope, but one has to face the brutal truth that most of the times BP wins BD.
My current prediction is that Spotlight wins Picture, Director and Screenplay. I’m not so sure about editing, it’s facing some stiff competition from Mad Max, but if Spotlight is a sho-in for at least two of the big three, it doesn’t need the editing Oscar to win.
However I’m still hoping for a little upset and would love to see George Miller win Director Spielberg style, on top of 4-5 (or more) tech Oscars. I guess there are two very important signals that will tell if Max is still a player. One is the DGA – if they nominate Miller (and they probably will) Max is still in the game. Second one is the ammount of nominations. If Mad Max dominates with 10 or more nominations (Costumes, Art Direction, Score, Make-Up, maybe even Actress) there is no doubt it will score big and will give Spotlight a run for it’s money. If it ends up tieing The Martian or The Revenant with 8-9 nods, Spotlight wins 100%.
Exciting times 🙂
I like your analysis, seems sound to me. And it’s true, if we learned anything from last year, it’s that most years the BP winner has a big advantage in both director and for whichever screenplay it’s nominated for (editing as well, but that category has tended to go for more technically dazzling achievements recently). IF Miller wins the DGA (or anyone else than McCarthy, really) we truly have a race on our hands, but until then, Spotlight remains firmly in the drivers’ seat.
I would feel more confident in Mad Max sweeping the techs and maybe Director if there wasn’t the overwhelming presence of The Martian. The Martian – which I also loved – is the type of sweeper that can clean-up similar categories to Mad Max. Having said that, I personally think that Mad Max is better in most of those exact categories than The Martian, directly.
I think it will come down to what AMPAS goes for, more so — Mad max or The Martian. Both films will challenge Spotlight, but Spotlight might be alone on its own island of “hey, I’m here, still gonna win no matter what, so.”
I think we may see another split. George Miller and Spotlight…
Brooklyn is the movie with less rotten reviews, just 3.
it is impossible to dislike Brooklyn
Not if you’re Richard Brody. He wrote a scathing review in The New Yorker.
Just read it. Man what an odd review. I mean I’m all up for debate, and I can sort of see his point about sanitation so part of me is glad the review’s there, but part of me is also wondering – did he watch the movie at all? It’s clearly not about realistically portraying the nitty gritty of 1950s Brooklyn life. It’s the story of an immigrant. It’s about a young woman making decisions for herself, figuring out what she wants, and it’s about leaving home, and it’s about women helping each other. Eh, to each their own.
Well, have you seen the guy’s best films of the year list? He has found his own niche, anyway. I haven’t seen Brooklyn yet, but I know to be cautious when it comes to Brody. 75 % of the time I tend to disagree with him, but he is always an interesting read, and for that I applaud him.
At least he picked Whiplash as worst movie of 2014. I think that made only two of us.
Brody is all about ideology and personal opinion and –to a lesser degree– prose. Form, intent and POV seems lost on them (Lane, Rosenbaum, etc.). They’re great writers though so I read them.
Really? Ugh. And he was in good graces with me after his account of CLOUDS OF SILS MARIA.
You know what would be interesting? If Spotlight does end up being only a 2-award Best Pic winner (BP and writing), which is unlikely (I’m thinking at least a supporting actor win in addition, hopefully for Keaton, though I think Mad Max is getting Director), and given that it’s won every ensemble award out there, what if that pushed the Academy to consider a “best ensemble” acting category? Was there ever one before/any explanation as to why they wouldn’t have one?
I would be enraged if they instituted a best ensemble category before an award for the casting director. Unless that ensemble victory went to the casting director.
Imagine all of the horrible Academy Award winners that would come about as a result of an ensemble category if it went to the cast. That would be terrible.
Better to keep acting Oscars a rare bird, I think.
Except, if they just announced a winner, but didn’t actually hand out Oscars to any individuals. Maybe that could work as a form of compromise?
Or they could make it a special award that’s not an “Oscar”. Like a ring of tiny Oscarettes. It could look like a lady fingers cake.
I want to be a casting director when I grow up.
I didn’t know anyone aspired to David O. Russell’s profession!
Spotlight for the win. In other races:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Saoirse Ronan
Sylvester Stallone (C’mon, he’s Hollywood royalty; they can’t resist)
Rooney Mara
George Miller
Great as she is, is Mara liked/loved enough for a win? She’s such a quiet, meek, boring little thing. There’s also an air about her. I’m not saying she’s frosty, she may be completely and utterly LOVELY. But I know that I’ve yet to see any interview with her where she doesn’t come across as less-than-enthused. She’s not the Monique type that has sass and can anti-campaign her way to a win. And she’s not a handshaking, kissing-baby type, either. I dunno. Could be reading her completely wrong.
There is also the fact it would be blatant category fraud to put her in Supporting. Ugh!
Funny, that’s how I see Ronan and Larson. They come off cold and distant. Which is why I don’t see either prevailing in Best Actress and think Blanchett is a solid contender in the race.
It’s been a bittersweet pleasure but a pleasure nonetheless. #finalpredictions
I basically agree down the line. Though I’m not so sure about Supporting Actress or Adapted Screenplay. The much trickier think to predict will be the BP nominations… I await those #finalpredictions
I guess right now the smart money is on these nine.
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
But perhaps Trumbo gets in over Bridge of Spies. Or Inside Out or Hateful Eight.
I’m definitely thinking those “9” unless The Hateful Eight gathers enough passion votes to knock something else out
TRUMBO over SPIES. These are dangerous times to be a Spielberg “fan.”
Adapted is tricky, man.
SPOTLIGH will win Best Picture #finalpredictions
George Miller will win Best Director #finalpredictions
BROOKLYN will wim Best Adapted Screenplay #finalpredictions
Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor #finalpredictions
SPOTLIGH will win Best Original Screenplay #finalpredictions
SPOTLIGHT will win Best Film Editing #finalpredictions
No way Spotlight wins editing over Mad Max, Martian, Big Short, and Revenant
It’s locked. Sorry.
INSIDE OUT will win Best Animated Feature #finalpredictions
THE REVENANT will win Best Cinematography #finalpredictions
I don’t think so. Seale will take this, rightfully so. And Lachman is probably closer to Seale than Lubezcki.
CINDERELLA will win Best Costume Design #finalpredictions
It deserves to. Glorious work from Sandy Powell.
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will win both Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing. #finalpredictions
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will win Best Visual Effects #finalpredictions
You’re joking, right?
Please get away
AMY will win Best Documentary Feature #finalpredictions
won’t even be nominated, sis
now, that would be interesting! What makes you think Amy will go unnoticed. The Academy seems to respond rather well to music docs these days.
going on a Blackfish-esque hunch here
I agree that the doc branch is a problem here, even if I think it will get the nomination (see also the SENNA snub)… but if it gets the nomination it probably wins.
Similarly, there’s a possibility that ANOMALISA might not get an Animated Feature nomination, much like THE LEGO MOVIE snub last year, because of the nominating constituency.
It’s interesting to ponder the possibility that Anomalisa could be left off, because both it and The Lego Movie could be looked upon as not living up to whatever standards the animation branch deem appropriate. Maybe, Anomalisa won’t be seen as an affront, because it’s aesthetics are less populist?
Perhaps
SON OF SAUL will win Best Foreign Language Film #finalpredictions
STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS will win Best Production Design #finalpredictions
SW: TFA looks – from commercials – to be a Production Design/Visual Effects juggernaut.
I wonder – if it’s nominated – if Crimson Peak could challenge Mad Max for a win there. Crimson Peak’s production design was exquisite.
CRIMSOM PEAK should probably win all production design awards. Or MAD MAX. Or 99 HOMES.
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD will win Best Makeup & Hairstyling. #finalpredictions
THE HATEFUL EIGHT will win Best Original Score. #finalpredictions
I think it gets DQ’ed given the amount of other music on the soundtrack and given that it’s recently come out that Morricone used leftover THE THING score… but we’ll see.
🙁
But I love that he did that
CAROL
Yeah, I’m thinking this category is CAROL’s best shot for a win (unless they go for Mara). Gosh, it’s worthy in other categories though, too. :/
IDK
Vikander will be nominated in lead and…
Jennifer Jason Leigh will win Best Supporting Actress. #finalpredictions
Bryce’s Final Predictions: An Awards Daily Exclusive.
Let me just get this straight: You thought Joy would sweep all the major categories a couple of weeks ago. Why should we trust you now?;)
You probably shouldn’t. I’m just having fun.
Soairse Ronan will win Best Actress. It’s locked. #finalpredictions
Jennifer Lawrence says not so fast, my friend. Enough of the arthouse bull-s.
Ew no.
Rampling
Nope; no career achievement awards anymore. A novel concept; let’s give somebody an award based on their performance.
Exactly. That’s why Rampling will win.
You just made the case for Rampling then……
Wouldn’t it be something.
Mark Rylance will win Best Supporting Actor. It’s Locked. #finalpredictions
I’d put my money on Stallone. It’s gonna be hard for Oscar voters to resist his comeback narrative.
… wasn’t hard for SAG.
But the Golden Globes also nominated Stallone … in a very crowded field. I really think the Globes … and the Oscars will salivate at the sight of him picking up an award. … Sasha is calling Stallone the ”dark horse” in the race, but don’t forget he’s an ”Italian Stallion”! 😉
That, and it helps that he is really good! I really like the way he carries himself, the way he gestures with his hands, the effect of the tiny modulations of his voice. It all adds up to a character that feels lived-in and authentic.
He was great.
Could def. be Rylance vs. Stallone. That said, if a Spotlight guy or Hardy make it in … they’ll be in BP front-runners which always helps the “win” cause.
REVENANT isn’t nor will be in any shape or form a “frontrunner”
Sorry, meant front runner for a BP nom. I realize that the film is way too divisive to be a real player for the win.
Oh gotcha
Just came back from a psychic’s convention in Vegas. Literally the name on everyone’s lips was Blanchett. 8/10 psychic’s told me she’s winning and they already know her speech (“she’s going to cry this time. It’s going to be a bigger deal then people realize. When Eddie announces her name she starts bawling.”)
Oh that is interesting. We shall see then 🙂
I can’t imagine both Scott and Miller getting in for director. Honestly I have Spielberg over either one of them. I also have Russell over Haynes.
Actress frontrunner I am sticking with Lawrence and Blanchett. There is still a lot of time to campaign and no actresses in the category can do it bigger than them. Rylance has better odds than Dano especially if BoS gets a BP nod. Supporting actress my bet would be Leigh. She’s an overlooked veteran and if Hateful Eight is a hit this could be her year. Best actor Dicaprio, Smith, Redmayne, Fassbender, Depp. Dark horse SLJ.
The Big Short is surging. It has potential to do well at PGA too. The box office this weekend was very strong. I have never felt like Spotlight is the winner so that category is a toss up. Straight Outta Compton is likely in as I see Ice Cube doing the rounds. But Beasts and Creed are just as good, although they may suffer because AMPAS doesn’t like to recognize more than 1 movie with a poc cast.
$705,000 at the boxoffice is “strong”?
OooooooooooooooooooooK 🙂
Strong for an indie only playing 8 theaters. If the wide release is a bomb like Steve Jobs then they should worry.
Yeah, everyone’s forgetting David O. Russell. The reaction for Joy is not great, for sure. But will AMPAS be different? Russell is well-liked. Amazingly.
I agree with Movie Lover, CAN Miller, Scott, and Haynes all make it in? I think it would be a miracle. A welcomed miracle — but a miracle. The critical consensus certainly has them all in.
Yes. I’m not saying they don’t deserve to be there, but AMPAS, DGA, and PGA is a specific club. Scott has made some of the most iconic movies of all time and he has 0 Oscars. Haynes has never even gotten a nomination. But honestly all directors with a movie featuring female leads are at a disadvantage.
“It accidentally flew under the radar all of this time because no one thought it had any chance of winning any awards. ”
I did Sasha. I have been saying this since September. In fact, it was on 6th position on my Best Picture predictions, which I did back in September.
I would have thought that Max’s less than stellar box office would have knocked it out, but clearly Miller has struck a chord here.
I don’t think box office figures are what they used to be for the Academy anymore when they decide what to nominate (or win) for their top prize. Their lack of nominating The Dark Knight for Best Picture and voting for The Hurt Locker over Avatar kind confirmed that, in my opinion.
I also knew after i saw it back in May? It would be a strong contender for some Oscars. Some pictures are just too big and good to ignore.
IF Revenant really fails to make a real push for BP/BD, then Leo is a lock. If not and Inarritu is cruising to back to back BP/BD then poor Leo could get Keaton’d in the form of Bryan Cranston.
Dicaprio is a lock either way. I think AMPAS will go big for The Revenant. Trumbo seems weaker.
For Mad Max to have a chance, advocates have to start writing think pieces about how important the film is. I remember when it came out there was stuff calling it a feminist action movie. There were also stuff like why we have to take Room and Brooklyn seriously as BP. Mad Max is in, now he needs some support.
Mad Max’s only chance is to anoint George Miller as the great iconoclastic rule breaker willing to do ANYTHING to get his vision on screen. That sort of narrative cuts the legs out from Tarantino and Inarritu. Frankly, it’s a miracle that Mad Max even got made and what ended up on screen was even remotely coherent. It was as gonzo a film as I’ve ever seen get that kind of budget. The fact that it was his followup to Happy Feet 2 is all the more the impressive.
Everyone seems to be writing Cate Blanchett off. Does she absolutely have ZERO chance of winning her third Oscar?
I don’t think she’s going to win it this year. This is the same Academy that waited decades to give Streep number three.
I’m not writing her off. The year could end up with Lawrence, Blanchett, Mirren all past winners in the best actress category. Cotillard and Theron might be dark horses too.
It’s been said before. If it wasn’t her (potential) third Oscar, she would have been a no brainer. Everyone knows she is worthy of having three Oscars, everyone knows her performance in Carol is oscarworthy and so was the one in Blue Jasmine. But despite all that, one has to face the brutal truth that getting “a third one” is not that easy. Mostly because of the fact that the Academy doesn’t seem to like giving out “third ones”. They keep them for “gods and legends” like Nicholson, Streep or Day Lewis. I mean shit, among many even Pacino, Lemmon, Brando or Bette Davis don’t have a third one and who in their right mind can say that they’re not “gods and legends”.
They didn’t give a third one to Hanks, when he could have deservingly lost to McKellen or Nolty, but lost undeservingly to Benigni, OR when he was clearly the obvious choice for “Cast Away”. They didn’t give one to Jodie Foster for “Nell” and ended up with one of the most awkward Best Actress Oscar ever. It’s not the right performance that gets you the third one, not even your whole body of work, it’s something else. It’s a very elite club and even if you are as brilliant as Blanchett is in everything she does, you still may not be invited.
So, as much as I’d like to see Blanchett win, sadly she’s still “not invited” (I hope I’m wrong).
Too bad that AMPAS gave Blanchett an Oscar for that half-assed Kate Hepburn impersonation
Yeah I agree- I was not impressed with her Hepburn role; only her facial expressions towards the end when her and Hughes break up had any artistic relevance to me. It just felt cheap. She should have won for Elizabeth (1998), Notes on a Scandal (2006) and Blue Jasmine (2013) – the latter being true. I still think she could win this, as I’ve said before – based on her star power. Brie Larson and Ronan are NOT big enough names to really win Best ACTRESS. Of the past Best Actress winners, only Cotillard (2007) was somewhat unknown (in the states). Usually though- the voters go with a known actress. Ronan is helped by her earlier supporting actress nod, but she was a child. I just don’t know. If Blanchett wins ANY televised award, watch out.
Yes, that’s exactly the reason I can’t put Larson or Ronan as the winners. The youngest best actress winners of the last few years were bigger names and had $100 million plus box office for the movies in which they were nominated. Room and Brooklyn just aren’t big enough to propel unknown actresses to an Oscar win especially in a category likely to have AMPAS favorites.
Yeah, I kinda agree there. She certainly wasn’t the best of the five that year, but even then she already won on a “due” note (that’s how I precieved it anyway). She was snubbed for “Elizabeth”, should have been nominated for “Tallented Mr Ripley” and could have easily won for “I’m not there”. The problem with actresses like Blanchett is that they are simply too good, and half assed awards like the Oscars will never have the possibility to rightfully acknowledge their body of work. The woman might as well have 5 Oscars by now and each one would have been a deserving win (well, maybe not the one for “The Aviator” 🙂 ). She’s a rare gem in the actor world, somewhere in the stratosphere along with PHS. Many can dream of getting there, but very few can. She has a rare gift, and for that they still haven’t made an Oscar big enough.
It’s a little too easy to say that so and so should have that many Oscars. I mean, if based on merit alone, you could name a host of actors and actresses that seem worthy, but there are only so many years, you know. What about Julianne Moore and Al Pacino. Do they only deserve one each? Blanchett was more than lucky to win for The Aviator, so I don’t feel sorry for her for being ‘only’ a two-time winner, though I do agree with your main sentiment, namely that had she not won for Blue Jasmine recently, she would be the clear favorite this year.
That’s it. Blanchett seems like a WINNER in any other year. But she just won. I can hear my mom in my ear right now. “That’s not how it should be! If someone is best, then they should win! I don’t care how many times they’ve won already or how recent the last one was!”
So, what happens if “Star Wars” exceeds expectations?
The most hyped film in Hollywood history gets the biggest premiere in history in a few hours, so if it can exceed those expecatations I’ll take everyone who posts here – or who has ever posted here – to Disneyland.
They are shooting for a 2/3 weekend box office orgasm only, I’m guessing.
It can only be a letdown. IF people fail to see it now, they will later. Am I the only movie lover who is just not that interested in this spectacle?
Nothing
If Star Wars exceeds expectations, everyone makes their money and doesn’t complain about Oscar.
If Star wars is exceedingly average like say is better than Phantom Menace it will have exceeded expectations. Would it actually be better than Martian and mmfr ? That is a tall order.
Sasha’s argument for Ridley Scott was that he’d get votes as the never-awarded but highly-respected veteran making one more classic in his 70’s. Ironically, Scott may be snubbed again but for another director (George Miller) who has the same backstory. A BP/BD split seems like a good bet, especially since voters know they can award McCarthy in the screenplay category if they so choose.
Just remember that people predicted splits last year using the same rationale, but Inarritu went home with three awards.
And I’m still not sure what happened last year, giving Boyhood basically nothing.
What happened is that Linklater’s slacker persona rubbed the voters the wrong way, Inarritu’s desire for Oscar surpassed even the great David O. Russell and the voters reacted accordingly.
Wait, so the rules do allow Vikander to be competing against herself in Supporting Actress? She could conceivably pick up two of the five slots for Danish Girl AND Ex Machina?
No, she would need to get bumped to Lead for THE DANISH GIRL for her to get double nominations (which would make sense, as she’s clearly the lead in TDG, with more screen time than Redmayne).
“As of now, however, the Best Picture race seems mostly decided. Stay tuned.”
Agree. When I said this a week ago, people spazzed out, but there’s not a strong case to be made where SPOTLIGHT doesn’t win.
Is CAROL really the frontrunner for Makeup and Hair? I’d think THE DANISH GIRL, MAD MAX, STAR WARS and BLACK MASS might have an edge there, as exquisite as the work in CAROL is.
I’m feeling the BP/BD split more and more. The Academy loves when you show your work, and Spotlight is very subdue. There are no big CG-addled tracking shots, no big The Artist dance numbers, or contains any distinctive directorial flair of Bigelow or Hooper. I don’t even mean that as a slight against McCarthy, its just that he’s a guy who specialized in meat-and-potatoes lowkey character dramas. The fact that he doesn’t go overboard into melodrama territory is actually one of Spotlight’s biggest strengths, I feel.
However, there is that old joke how you can change “Best” to “Most” and you’ll find your winner. The MOST Costume Design for all those fancy dresses and shiny buckles, the MOST acting for the most overt “I AM ACTING” performances, the MOST screenplay for the one with the most zingers or characteristic of its writer(Woody Allen, Tarantino, Kaufman, Wilder, Jonze, Cody), the MOST cinematography for having the most obviously pretty camerawork and lighting, etc. George Miller clearly did the most goddamn directing, especially in comparison to Spotlight. Hell, McCarthy might get Affleck’d for Spielberg this year, you know they love that man. And the guilds love Miller, who’s pulled together this incredible cinematic achievement at the age of 70. I can really see them going for that.
“the MOST acting for the most overt “I AM ACTING” performances”
So that means winners are Fassbender and Lawrence? Oy vey!
DiCaprio has this. Look at him grunt and knaw and grunt and furrow his brow and grit his teeth and grunt and cover himself in dirt/blood/snow/crap. He’s practically begging for an Oscar after all this torture.
Nobody’s begging for Oscar in a role like that cause roles like that don’t win. if he wanted to beg for Oscar he would take Steve Jobs. That’s Oscar baiting and Oscar begging of the highest order. I don’t care who (openly) campaigns and who doesn’t. There are roles that are automatic baits and are taken for that reason alone. Steve Jobs is one of them, The Revenant isn’t.
He tried that with J.Edgar already. Now we’re going for “turning my body into a special effect”, which has a loooooooooong list of winners
Steve Jobs = J Edgar (with far worse boxoffice, J Efgar actually got its budget back from domestic release) + my rapid fire jibberish with fluctuating accent is special effect
Very interested about the cinematography showdown between Chivo and Seale. What is a good indicator of tech noms ?
The ASC nominations would be the most obvious predictor, but they tend not to match up with Oscar entirely.
I’d expect the final 5 to come from this list of seven:
THE REVENANT
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
SICARIO
CAROL
THE HATEFUL EIGHT
BRIDGE OF SPIES
THE MARTIAN
Occasionally the Academy nominates an exemplary foreign film here, so remote possibilities would include THE ASSASSIN and SON OF SAUL.