The Oscar race seems to be slowly forming a consensus around a few films. There are other films that exist outside the consensus, and the Academy’s own choice is likely to include at least one unpredictable wild card, but it appears as though a few films have the light on them as the year comes to a close.
The outlier could turn out to be the Screen Actors Guild, which named five films that no one would have predicted, except maybe two of them – Spotlight and The Big Short. The other three presented, suddenly, an interesting challenge. Are they more popular than anyone knew? Has this ever happened before? Will this unpredictable year turn out to be one of those deal breaking years where all bets are off?
Or will it go as planned from here on out: Spotlight wins the Golden Globe, the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, the Directors Guild and the Oscar. It’s possible, even probable. Like The Hurt Locker and 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight is the one that hits at every award announcement. A better question to be asking is “can any other film win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award but Spotlight? The membership is around 100,000 and the majority will have to be with the movie for it to beat the others. The Help beat The Artist. American Hustle beat 12 Years a Slave. Birdman and Argo were SAG favorites.
The Producers Guild and Directors Guild could pose a few interesting propositions for the film. The preferential ballot the Producers Guild will be using favors a movie like Spotlight. It will get lots of number ones and hit all the numbers in between. More importantly, because of the way these awards are spilling out, Spotlight is very likely the ONLY one they’ll all be able to agree on. The reason the SAG ensemble nomination is so important is that Best Picture has to be a movie that all people will respond to. Even if the tide or sentiment turns against Spotlight in the coming weeks (“really? that?”) it’s hard to imagine enough of that momentum to shift the race as it stands, since there isn’t an alternative as yet. Birdman’s win over Boyhood was an anti-Boyhood vote as much as it was a pro-Birdman vote. There was clear annoyance from the industry being cowed by the critics to pick “their” movie. Eventually it turned into “anything but Boyhood” and the only real alternative was Birdman, which had been pinned closely to Boyhood throughout the season, had won a few awards and was – unlike Boyhood – a studio movie with lots of popular actors in it.
It’s important to always remember, where the Academy is concerned, they have five options for Best Picture, not ten, like the AFI or the Critics Choice or the Producers Guild. Having ten choices means you can pick Spotlight and Star Wars and Straight Outta Compton. When asked to pick just five, things can change dramatically.
Around this time last year the Gurus of Gold had all of the films except American Sniper in the top 7. But they had Boyhood on top. The year before, 12 Years a Slave topped the list. But in 2012, Argo was number 3 behind Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Obviously, The Artist was in the lead in 2011, and in 2010, most had Social Network at the top but a few were holding on to The King’s Speech, which eventually won (famously).
That makes it a 50/50 that Spotlight will prevail if you base it on the pundits’ predictions — no other film has ever held the top spot at either Gurus of Gold or Gold Derby. The Artist and 12 Years a Slave are two film that were always atop the predictions until they won Best Picture. Both had reasons for winning. Both might have seemed mildly improbable at first but then became unstoppable. That could be The Artist this year. The two films that challenged these movies didn’t get a SAG ensemble nomination: Hugo or Gravity. If you think of Spotlight’s biggest challenger being either Mad Max or The Martian, neither got an ensemble nomination. Nor did Carol or The Revenant.
Once again, all roads lead back to Spotlight taking the season no matter what. But in terms of nominations, it looks like we have a consensus, echoed at Movie City News:
Now, just to illustrate how rare the SAG ensemble lineup was in terms of how the race usually goes, here is a comprehensive chart – with the help of Marshall Flores — showing a bit of history.
What I get from looking at these charts is that SAG Ensemble usually gets at least three nominees into the Best Picture race. This year, we have two so far: Spotlight and The Big Short. Next, you’re probably looking at Straight Outta Compton or Beasts of No Nation, depending on which of those two Academy voters feel very strongly about. Come to that, Trumbo could even be the third.
Our consensus, or so it seems right now:
Spotlight
The Big Short
Mad Max
The Martian
Carol
Room
Bridge of Spies
Even with only two nominations so far, The Revenant is a sure bet. And there was one. Which is the 9th? Another wild card is Brooklyn — which is passionately loved but not showing up anywhere it needs to. Might that matter? Hard to say. It only needs 300 people to say it’s their number one favorite film of the year. It will have to be a passion pick, whatever it is. I would predict one of the following three: Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton or Inside Out. There is always the chance that a completely surprising film could turn up, too, like 45 Years or Trumbo. The last two titles could be up in the air, but it appears, at last for now, that a consensus has definitely exposed itself to direct sunlight.
Inside Out, I mean.
I don’t care what the forecast says for Best Picture, that film DESERVES to be nominated. Same goes for Best Original Screenplay.
What happened to Inside Out…
If Brooklyn misses Best Picture, I will be so upset. Its surprising and disheartening that it has missed in so many places. I would normally vote for something like Mad Max or Ex Machina for my favorite of the year, but nothing hit me emotionally hard as Brooklyn.
I do have to wonder about Bridge of Spies. Its a consensus contender for sure, but can it win anything outside of Mark Rylance? Maybe they finally throw a bone to Newman for Score. I dunno, there just seems to be “cooler” films that will get the #1-3 votes on ballots. Bridge of Spies certainly appeals to the academy demo, but how many of them are going to rank it above #5 when so many other unique films are out there? Its a contender that lots of people like, but it has zero chance at winning.
I can give you 57 million reasons why there ISN’T a BP consensus…
OK, go! But it HAS to be 57 million, exactly – I’ll count them! 🙂
Given the inevitable backlash that is already happening (“Really? Spotlight? THAT’S the best?”) I feel it is my duty to continue to express enthusiastically and passionately how happy I am that it’s picking up all these awards and is looking to go straight to BP. God I hope it doesn’t turn into Boyhood 2.0, although if Mad Max wins I’d still be very happy. But go Spotlight – best I’ve seen in a long while.
Where are you seeing the backlash for Spotlight? From what I have seen people are accepting it as the BP win.
in our hearts
I have a feeling Mad Max is going to win, it’s the film with the biggest momentum right now.
I still think that MM wins if…
SAG ensemble: The Big Short
DGA: George Miller
PGA: Mad Max
GG Director: George Miller.
If these awards do happen… MM is the locked sweeper and Spotlight just earns Original Screenplay.
If a few other things go well for The Big Short (some key nominations), I’d still be worried that one takes it, even in your rather optimistic scenario (for a MMFR supporter), because it’s still by far the more ‘Academy’ movie of the two. PGA is strong, but a SAG winner vs. a movie not even nominated for ensemble… I don’t know… could still go the PGA/DGA winner’s way, but it’d definitely be no lock!
there’s a real chance The Big Short actually wins Best Picture, if Bale or Ruffalo surprise in Supporting and the film – not so surprisingly – takes Adapted. But it is a longshot.
Prediction/wishful thinking:
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Spotlight
Carol
Room
The Revenant
Creed
Brooklyn
I guess that list isn’t completely out of the question, though obviously still highly unlikely (if only for the inclusion of Creed)…
How is George Miller overdue? Sure he’s been in the business a little bit, won an Oscar for Happy Feet, and directed Babe, Lorenzo’s Oil and a few others. But Ridley Scott is more overdue to me, and I think that will allow him win for The Martian- a much more conventional and clean choice for voters vs. the obscurity but still compelling Mad Max. We’ll find out when DGA makes their decision where the tides are going.
The narrative or whatever bull people say would work more if the film is actually good enough to win BP. “The Martian” is an okay film and could get nominated but it’s certainly not BP winning material. Miller has more chance because his film is in with a chance of winning while Scott will just be happy to be nominated. The “overdue” thing is bull and there are few times when an actor or director deserved to win but didn’t. Scott has been nominated three times and lost to “Silence Of The Lambs”, “Traffic” and “A Beautiful Mind”. You can maybe make a case for “Blackhawk Down” over ABM because it was a better film but Ron Howard was also “overdue” and his films is well directed even if a bit boring.
Chris Noonan directed “Babe,” George Miller produced it.
All the more reason to not spout that Miller is an overdue DIRECTOR.
Good point! Scott three times nominee while Miller has never been nominated before. The BD, though, is not a career achievement award and MMFR is far superior to “The Martian” in everyway. MMFR and Miller have the better film and should win.
I think you said it best, it’s not a career achievement award. Miller SHOULD win…but unfortunately it’s not always the case.
Babe 2: Pig In The City is far superior to Babe.
If you count hits and misses, how many misses has Miller had? How many did Scott? Scott’s career is basically based on Alien & Blade Runner, then Gladiator, American Gangster and now The Martian. But apart from that, his career is somewhat mediocre. Take Miller in comparison… his weakest film – as regarded – has been The Witches of Eastwick (which is still, a minor classic from the 80’s), and has spawned 3 great franchises, film-making wise. Mad Max is the only one, Oscars still haven’t acknowledged… Babe earn 7 noms including Best Picture, Happy Feet deservingly won Best Animated. Even his segment in “Twilight Zone: The Movie”, was one of the best (along with Joe Dante’s), so it’s difficult to find any weak spot in his career, after almost 40 years of great filmmaking.
Scott also directed Thelma & Louise, which was legendary!!! It SHOULD have been a Best Picture nominee (it was a Drama Globe nominee), and it earned 6 nods in all key categories for Directing, 2 Best Actress, Cinematography, Editing, and Screenplay- the latter it won for. He also directed Black Hawk Down. Scott is superior. He can cover different genres and it’s high time they gave him his statue.
Thelma & Louise was hardly among the top 5 films of 1991, to my taste. JFK, T2: Judgement Day, Grand Canyon, The Fisher King, Silence of the Lambs, L.A. Story, Barton Fink, Cape Fear, Boyz n’ the Hood, Beauty and the Beast, Backdraft, Europa, Europa, Fried Green Tomatoes, Raise the Red Lantern, Mediterraneo, Nikita, Soapdish, all of them I think are better films and more deserving of awards for Best Picture, to be honest. From Thelma & Louise, I praise the cinematography, the film editing and the performances by Davis and Sarandon, but I felt it quite fake, from beginning to end, and felt completely unrelated to the characters when the film ended…
I understand why so many people love it… but really, like, didn’t see people the other films of 1991? Thelma and Louise is a *** 1/2 stars film… all other films I’ve mentioned are **** 1/2 or above…
Thelma & Louise was amazing!! You’re actually in the minority honey – and it’s quite obvious you’re probably someone who has a bias against female driven movies. The film had every key nomination EXCEPT Best Picture. Cape Fear ?? Lol my psychic powers tell me you’re blinded by your own jealousy that Scott actually directed a story that easily could have been helmed by s woman – and triumphed.
Yeah THELMA & LOUISE is in my top 5 from ’91 as well.
Top 10 ’91
1. JFK
2. MY OWN PRIVATE IDAHO
3. THE DOUBLE LIFE OF VERONIQUE
4. THELMA & LOUISE
5. A BRIGHTER SUMMER DAY
6. BARTON FINK
7. CITY OF HOPE
8. THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS
9. NAKED LUNCH
10. LOVERS ON THE BRIDGE
JFK – nice pick! My no.1 for that year as well…
I’m not a fan of Thelma & Louise either (same reasons as you, mostly), but, even so, Ridley Scott is miles ahead of Miller, career-wise, and even just trying to argue otherwise is a bit of a reach, in my opinion…
Scott great films: Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator, The Martian. Second tier: Black Hawk Down (I hate it for racism), American Gangster.
Miller great films: Road Warrior, Mad Max 2, Lorenzo’s Oil, Babe (producer), Babe: Pig in the City – seriously, it’s THAT great -, Happy Feet (Oscah!), Mad Max Fury Road.
Seriously, the difference is… Miller actually writes his own screenplays. Scott doesn’t. At all.
So Miller is an author, Scott is an artisan (even if an extremely talented one)
Yeah, but for me and most others, Scott’s 3-4 best are just incomparably better than any of Miller’s… That’s where subjectivity comes in, I guess. 🙂
Erm…. I don’t think Scott should or will win for BD “The Martian”, but to call the rest of his career mediocre is just absurd. Some directors can hundreds of films but still wont make a film as good as “Blade Runner” and “Alien” because they don’t have the vision of Scott. Miller has timed his film perfectly and could win an Oscar but that in no way makes a better filmmaker. Scoot is far superior and It’s not even close. If we’re only talking about Oscar and not great films or masterpieces “Blade runner”, “Alien”, the Scott is still superior to miller and has a better claim to being overdue because he has been nominated three times for BD while Miller has never been nominated. Scott is clearly the better director and the more visionary director but Miller has the better film this year and should win ahead of Scott.
it’s not mediocre, but clearly overrated. He’s just an artisan and his films are just as good as the screenplay they have.
Miller is an author. That’s the difference.
Scott is an auteur too, if not more than George Miller. Oh are you among the bandwagoners who became fans of him right after Mad Max: Fury Road?
Common, think about it! Oscar wants a big audience and huge publicity for its Award show, and it could get that and more by simply nominating Star Wars. Remember though it’s not the Academy bosses or show’s producers who will decide which films are nominated. The actors will decide if its in or not and they have a habit of turning down big action films. The producers of the show and the top bosses will pushing to have TFA included in their BP Oscars.
they’ll have huge audience if there’s the chance a film like Mad Max, sweeps. The thing about SW that could really affect the Oscar race, is the possible last minute nom of Harrison Ford in supporting. That would hurt Stallone’s chances, really seriously.
Huge audience? I actually think MMFR needs to be released again. The mainstream audience didn’t embrace it the first time around. If it gets an Oscar nod WB can possibly recoup the money they invested.
Prediction:
The Revenant
Brooklyn
Spotlight
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
The Big Short
Star Wars 7
Bridge of Spies
I think Stars Wars could certainly be a surprise 9th nominee.
No, i think the academy is pushing it enough with Mad Max as it is, and now that film is a legit contender I think that is enough for the genre films. I’d rather Creed or Straight outta compton. Star Wars is definitely getting the acclaim though…
As Boyhood showed, the critics prizes and the Globes don’t mean squat. This year is going to be PGA and DGA, nothing more nothing less.
I remember last year some were saying American Sniper’s critical score was too low. They won’t nominate Cooper again etcetera. Then it showed up at DGA and PGA on the way to 6 Oscar nominations.
Honestly if Clint hadn’t been too cute by half with the late December screenings he might have been able to take that gigantic box office take all the way to BP/BD wins. Birdman had enough of a head start with the guilds.
I think they felt Eastwood got enough reward with the huge box office. He was not up for BD.
Zero chance. Box office hasn’t played a role in the BP race (winner-wise) for ages…
But Boyhood is an anamoly. Crititcs were right the year before that. 12 years a slave won. That was predicted.
Social Network and Brokeback Mountain won the exact same awards as Boyhood, including GG, and lost as well. Anomalies aplenty.
I will say this though. Spotlight does not have the same enthusiasm that the critics were bestowing on Boyhood, Brokeback Mountain, and Social Network. I think the critical love is split between Spotlight and Mad Max right now.
“I think the critical love is split between Spotlight and Mad Max right now.”
Agreed. So Mad Max could just as easily be this year’s Boyhood (critical darling that does much more poorly with industry/Academy), and not Spotlight (for the record, I disagree that either can truly be compared to Boyhood, as the situation is, in fact, vastly different).
Oh well I had no idea. Spotlight seems a fair chooice now. Maybe Carol will emerge as the frontrunner who knows
Basing predictions on the previous year has proved infamously embarrassing.
The only consensus I see is we don’t know anything yet. I think some of the movies people on here are sure will get in won’t show up. There are a few being underestimated too. Pay attention to campaigns, because they matter more than critics.
Director could deliver a surprise like Gary Gray, Fukunaga, or Coogler. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Compton to win SAG ensemble. NWA is being inducted into The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame next year so there is another added narrative. Hateful Eight could deliver more than 1 acting nomination (K. Russell and SLJ have heat).
Remember, only 4 movies with female leads have won BP in the last 20 years (Titanic, Shakespeare, Chicago, and Million Dollar Baby. All of those were big box office hits. It’s the main reason I keep Joy on my prediction ballot. Of all the female led entries it seems the most commercial.
“A better question to be asking is “can any other film win the Screen Actors Guild ensemble but Spotlight?”
Having seen both for once, I really think between SPOTLIGHT and THE BIG SHORT that SAG will go for THE BIG SHORT. You have more “performances” from more popular actors in a better movie. If it went the other way, I’d have to tell myself that they didn’t get around to THE BIG SHORT and just had more time to see SPOTLIGHT.
I was thinking about the legend of Christian Bale as an actor. I thought for a second ‘did he know how to play drums before..’ and then realized that knowing what we know, it really doesn’t matter. Those questions are irrelevant in his case. He just gets it done thoroughly time in and time out. If he had to play a surgeon I’m sure he’d go to medical school and operate on a dozen people before shooting started.
I really am shocked and slightly appalled that BRIDGE OF SPIES has hung on like this. It’s giving me a ‘stop the world, I want to get off’ kinda feeling. I didn’t like it and I can’t even say it’s objectively good. I’m usually not that out of sync with the consensus.
Saw “Big Short” the other night and my first thought as it ended was “the ‘Spotlight’ folks should be worried.” And I loved “Spotlight”, but while it is relevant and topical, “Short” is relevant, topical and flashy, and that could count for something.
Yeah. They’re definitely the same kind of movie and to me at least TBS does a better job of it. To me Spotlight was missing tension or suspense you know. But TBS, had oodles of it. (spoilerism) And that last scene with Carrell on the phone, I was thinking “Come on, come on…” like when you’re watching someone diffuse a bomb with a countdown clock going. 🙂
“To me Spotlight was missing tension or suspense you know.”
If you say that about it, I guess it means there’s a good chance I won’t be gaga over it either… Hope not, ’cause I’m really looking forward to it, but it’s not a good sign.
Spotlight doesn’t need to win SAG Ensemble – 12 Years didn’t either. It just needs to win the PGA. The fact that it’s nominated for the ensemble award is enough to make it a statistically valid BP winner, regardless of whether it wins said award or not. It has to win one of the three, DGA/PGA or SAG, in order to remain valid. Just one will do. Even if it loses the SAG, but wins one or both of the other two (which is far from an unthinkable scenario), it’ll still be the favorite, unless The Big Short really does do spectacularly well going forward, getting nominated everywhere from now on, winning some precursor BP prizes (other than the GG for comedy), getting the improbable BD nomination (could editing be a problem too? I don’t remember how often it’s been nominated for that) and so on – a sum of circumstances which seems unlikely (though, again, far from unthinkable) at this point.
Wow, the Danish Girl has not been well received at all. And I’m very iffy about the Hateful Eight… this should have been a summer release. Too nasty for Christmas time.
The Danish Girl is getting acting nominations. Which it deserves. I will be upset if Brooklyn doesn’t make the cut for Best Picture. I liked it more than some of the other favorites. It’s one of the few films I can recommend to everyone I know without reservation.
The Danish Girl is not out. It’s a movie tailor made for AMPAS. Tarantino and Weinstein had great success releasing Django during the holidays. The only difference this time is Hateful Eight has to compete with The Revenant.
The Danish Girl is out.
At the very least it’s in for 2 major acting categories so it can’t be counted out for a BP nod.
Exactly.
What was so nasty in THE HATEFUL EIGHT? I haven’t seen it yet.
Perhaps nasty is the correct term, but that is just violent, bloody and mean spirited. I’ll see it eventually, but I’ll wait a while.
I can think of “nasty” Christmas wide releases going back to “Dirty Harry” and “The Godfather Part II,” and recently, “Django Unchained” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” And “Hateful 8” is not opening wide on Christmas. There’s a limit to how many studios wanted to go out against “The Force Awakens.” And the release pattern Warners took last year with “American Sniper” showed that an old-fashioned platform release, with the right film, can still work spectacularly.
1. Spotlight
2.The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. Brooklyn
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. The Martian
7.The Hateful 8
8. Carol, Trumbo or Bridge of Spies
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I’m noticing a trend. And really, it’s a trend that typically pops up in crazy years like this one. 🙂
People is saying “oh, The Martian will contend for the win” OR “Oh, it’s a fringe nom and may not make it, people are soooo overestimating it”.
People are saying “Room is SO in, it’s making BP lists left and right” OR “I think it’s in trouble and is a fringe nom at best, it’s too small, etc.”
People are saying “Look out for The Big Short” OR “It just feels like a GG-type film and won’t make it over the hump”.
People are saying “Bridge of Spies is SO in, it’s right up AMPAS’ alley” OR “I could see it missing. They’re cooling on Spielberg. It may only get Rylance and a couple of tech noms”.
People are saying “Brooklyn is SO in, it’s such a charmer with good performances, good craft, right up AMPAS’ alley, amazing reviews …” OR “Oh, Brooklyn won’t make it, it will be the season’s “wtf”, what happened to Brooklyn?”
People are saying “Star Wars is IN. It’s too big, too many great reviews, buzz, amazing craft, goodwill” OR “It’s a Star Wars movie. If Star Trek couldn’t get in in a year of 10. Plus, it’ll get 3-4 tech nods, at most”.
People are saying “Mad Max could be the surprise contender for the WIN” OR “It’s all a mirage. Do we reallllly see a Mad Max film up for BP in such a strong year? Tech noms yes, maybe lone director, but a BP nom? Come on”.
People are saying “Oh, The Revenant will challenge for the top spot. Goodwill left-over for Inarritu. Leo is amazing. Tech noms everywhere” OR “It’s too divisive. Inarritu just won. Why should they reward this movie of his so soon. It missed with AFI and SAG Ensemble”.
I could go on and on, really.
My point is that – come Oscar nom morning – we will ALL know exactly what AMPAS and “only” AMPAS thought was the Best of the Year. It will all clear-up. We’ll all say “Ohhhh, yes, of course. Of course, those are the 8-9 they went for. They’re so predictable”.
But really, it’s just so fun right NOW seeing how so many of these contenders seem to be on shaky ground, when they’re probably not — or how many seem to be solid as a rock, when they might actually be on shaky ground. Fun times.
I couldn’t agree more with your analysis.
I’m hoping and praying that Brooklyn or Son of Saul or even Sicario make it in.
The one thing that concerns me about Brooklyn getting in BP is that it’s not a very cinematic kind of movie. I loved it, but at a couple of points I kind of wished I was at home watching it from the comfort of my couch. I don’t know if AMPAS voters care about that, but if I was in the movie business, I’d want to reward movies that create a great cinematic experience, the kind of thing people have to go to the theater to really appreciate. I wonder if that’s something that counts against it in a year with so many cinematic movies : Mad Max, Revenant, Hateful Eight, The Martian, Star Wars…
But a lot of AMPAS voters are going to be watching from their couch and it will play beautifully at home. But in the theater I loved the intimacy of the movie. I think it’s very cinematic like those French new wave films that concentrated on the face. And Ronan’s face was made for cinema.
You make a very good point that the fact that many will watch a screener on their TVs actually helps this movie. The same thing applies to Trumbo, which is shot and staged EXACTLY like one of Jay Roach’s HBO films (Recount, Game Change).
Interesting. I just saw Trumbo in the theater last night and I found the way it was film incredibly lackluster. The actors were fine but the framing was so boring. And the movie lack guts. It should have been more horrifying.
Definitely. That’s exactly my point. Trumbo is like a made-for-TV movie, in a bad way. But weirdly, that might work in its favor because so many voters watch on screeners at home, and the movie is basically, um, made for TV.
Absolutely agree. From a shot composition standpoint (as well as editing preferences), John Crowley is very unimaginative. He hired an excellent production designer and costume designer to help his mise-en-scéne, however.
I certainly agree about the last two!
Look out for The Big Short. It’s the stealth candidate of 2015 and so far its timing seems to be perfect. At this point it’s even an advantage to be slightly underestimated.
I also feel it could be real competition for Spotlight. People who like to vote for the “smartest” film of the year could be lured away from Spotlight and towards The Big Short with a smart, understated campaign, which is what I think they’re doing.
The Big Short can do well with nominations but some voters won’t vote for it finally for Best Picture because they will say they don’t understand parts of it.
I said it before and was mocked. Expect Adam McKay in the director lineup.
At this point I wouldn’t be too surprised about that. If that happens, the movie is A LOT stronger than I’m thinking it is, though. My best guess is Picture, Supporting Actor and Screenplay only.
Saw it yesterday, and it didn’t go over that well with the crowd. There were even walkouts. It’s a bit of a heady subject and there isn’t a traditional ‘plot’. Plus, the rapid pace and TV sitcom style camerawork certainly isn’t traditional Best Picture material.
The hipper elements of the Academy will warm to it, but I see it as one of the movies that gets a lot of nominations but zero wins.
I hope the industry will prove wrong the critics and their middlebrow choices just like last year.
—– nominees —–
1. Spotlight + director
2. Mad Max: Fury Road + director
3. Carol + director
4. The Revenant + director
5. Bridge of Spies
6. The Big Short
7. Brooklyn
8. The Hateful Eight + director
—– just outside the actual nominees —–
9. The Martian
10. Room
11. Inside Out
12. Trumbo
I’m still fairly confident that Hateful Eight can make it in, considering Django did and this movie is better. But based on stats it’s looking like Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Costumes and Score are the best it’s gonna get.
Cinematography, too.
Yep, probably right about that one.
The Academy will come around for The Hateful Eight, giving it Director and Picture nominations. People are still wildly overestimating The Martian and Room.
The biggest POSSIBLE surprise is Trumbo getting a Picture nom (in addition to the very likely Actor and Supporting Actress noms).
Have a gut feeling it’s gonna be Mad Max. No movie has lingered with me this year the way that one has and I also have a sneaking suspisicion that Disney is secretly campaigning their butts off for Star Wars, so I could see that creeping in to Picture and director categories. It’s fresh in people’s minds and its hard to avoid the hype machine, plus it’s one of the best reviewed films of the year. Avatar got in and I think like with most of Cameron’s films people realized it wasn’t very good after the fact lol. I could definitely see a battle between Mad Max, Star Wars, and Spotlight for best picture. Somewhat like 2002 with Moulin rouge and Fellowship falling to Beautiful Mind. Two very distinct genre pictures competing against the Oscar bait prestige film.
The Birdman vote was pro-narcissism. No, rather, not pro or anti anything, it was narcissism, four fingers.
Trumbo is about the most interesting and compelling subject imaginable, the film industry. Huge.
It was pro good cinema, bold art. Out of the comfort zone you like so much.
It was pompous joyless wankery of the highest level, although Keaton was good in it.
If you have no ambition in life, everything ambitious looks pompous joyless wankery to you. The more you are challenged, the more you ask for peace. Birdman is a war movie, you need the guts for it.
I’m certainly not going to let this go unanswered. It is the height of laziness to defend a piece of wafer thin pretentious naval gazing through passive agressive shots hurled at the people disagreeing with you.
Birdman won because the guilds didn’t like Linklater.
I’m sorry, but saying a movie is pretentious is, in my opinion, the epitome of lazy criticism… Plenty of (smart) people out there (many of them respected critics) who saw the same movie you did, got it just as much (unless you think you’re better than all of them, which would, of course, make YOU pretentious), yet DID think it had actually important things to say, and DID NOT think it was pretentious. So, basically, when you say that about it, no matter how many arguments which are all based exclusively on your perspective/interpretation of the movie you bring forth, you’re basically only criticizing your subjective image about the movie (while pretending to criticize the movie itself), not the movie itself, because you can’t for a second prove that what you think the movie is saying is what it actually IS saying (since there are plenty of other equally – or more – qualified people who have put forth arguments to the contrary). There are, of course, movies that obviously have nothing to say. Birdman simply is not one of those, and there’s ample proof of it out there. If you didn’t get that out of it, that’s your problem – but you don’t get to call it “pretentious” and PRETEND that that’s more than a personal opinion, and get away with it…
but you don’t get to call it “pretentious” and PRETEND that that’s more than a personal opinion, and get away with it…
-0-
Jesus you’re a freaking clown. This is a movie blog comment section. The only people who have any say over what we “get away with” are Ryan and Sasha. I’m pretty sure at least one of them agrees with my take that Birdman was a pretentious pile of nothing, albeit a well made one.
I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy of calling something pretentious and then pretending it’s an actual, objective criticism of the movie itself, and not just a highly personal take on its meaning. Just for the record, Ryan never did that, that I recall – all he ever said was that he FOUND the movie to be pretentious. And he was clearly open to other interpretations as equally valid, despite disagreeing with them. That’s the difference between a smart, reasonable person and an arrogant douche like yourself. And where do you get off, calling people clowns when faced with polite criticism?! Do you find that to be a classy move, worthy of your unquestionable superiority?
You’ve vomited out about a thousand words of frenetic outrage about what I said about Birdman. Perhaps it doesn’t make you a clown, but instead someone overly invested in Birdman.
Criticism is primarily SUBJECTIVE, chief. Personally, I found the Godard homages (including that moronic subtitle The Unexpected Virture of Ignorance) to, in fact, be pretentious. Much like Ryan, I found the utter nihilism of the film hard to ignore and much like Ryan wondered how so many people didn’t grasp that Inarritu was mocking not just superhero movies, but the acting branch as a whole.
However, given Ryan’s strong feelings about films he dislikes, please find for me when he said (paraphrasing) “I hated Birdman, but if your interpretation of it differs than mine, it’s all equally valid to me”…citation please.
In conclusion, I don’t give a rat’s ass what you think about me. You clearly loved Birdman, and I clearly didn’t. Walk away because you aren’t changing my mind. But, hey, you at the end of the day have your high minded principles and sense of fair play to fall back on. Brava!
:)) Wow, did you really think I was interested in changing your mind?! You really ARE full of yourself…
I know all the arguments, chief, and I also obviously know criticism is subjective. I also happen to know when somebody thinks THEIR criticism of something is NOT subjective, and you shouldn’t bother pretending some more that that’s not true in your case, because to me it’s already clear as day, and you’ll never convince me otherwise.
Also, I’m not overinvested in Birdman. My opinion of it, based on dozens of discussions last year, reviews, podcasts, personal ruminations, etc., will never be moved an inch by someone like you, who brings no revolutionary new arguments to the table. I am, however, quite invested in profoundly disliking anyone who uses the word ‘pretentious’ to criticize a movie and tries as hard as you’ve been trying to pass it off as fact, and not let on that they’re doing it.
As for my quoting Ryan to you… yeah, see… I’m not gonna do that… ’cause I know what he said, HE knows what he said, and I couldn’t care less what YOU think you know about it. But feel free to go ahead and find everything Ryan’s ever said about Birdman and prove TO ME that he DIDN’T say it, if you have the time/energy for that sort of thing…
” But feel free to go ahead and find everything Ryan’s ever said about Birdman and prove TO ME that he DIDN’T say it, if you have the time/energy for that sort of thing…”
Gosh, for being so very invested in the rules of movie blog and debate etiquette, I can’t believe you missed the obvious no no in asking someone to prove a negative. Smart feller like yourself, can’t believe you did that.
I have to say that your outrage over my use of the word “pretentious” is sort of humorous coming from you, who used the phrase “personal ruminations” when describing your opinions of Birdman.
Either way, this is all been a hoot. Sorry I thought you were a clown, you are far too erudite for such crude descriptors. Try to have a nice holiday, although I wonder if you’re capable of that.
:)) I’ll try…
The fact that I asked you to do that should clue you in to how much I care about your opinion on the subject (though I thought I’d made that clear enough in the last message – guess not clear enough for you).
So we’re not allowed to use certain English phrases without being called pretentious now? OK… Thanks, teach’!
I think something that we need to consider is that the buzz that exists now is effectively going to be the buzz that exists when most of the Academy does voting for nominations.
MAD MAX peaking now is truly ideal for the film’s chances to end up with a boatload of nominations.
For the next two weeks (i.e. until Oscar voters are actually nominating), there are no real awards, and there’s not likely to be much news about the nominated films (with the possible exception of STAR WARS becoming some sort of phenom that demands Oscar noms). The critics’ part of the race is effectively over, and the echoes of the last two weeks are going to be heard early next year.
Spotlight
Trumbo (they love themselves)
Beasts of No Nation (covers the “we’re serious & think about important things” angle)
Mad Max
The Martian
Carol
Room
Bridge of Spies
There ya go.
I very much hope The Revenant wins best actor, cinematography and make up. Even though I am fan, I will hate MMFR winning cinematography over it.
I hope Joy this year will help the media dispel the hype of Oscar baits. It is a but funny how THR had Joy in Actress roundups and Directors roundups even before anyone saw the film. I still think JL will get nominated but not as strongly as people were saying.
For now, Spotlight MMFR Carol Martian has been making almost ever list so kind of hope all of these are included in BP nominations.
Yeah, Joy fiasco is the one for the ages. It truly made many serious outlets, pundits, predictors, etc look like fanboyish amateurs who mistook stanning for logical thinking. It just shows that prestige cast and crew baiting are not enough to make real contender. It was a movie about a mop inventor. That should have raised red flags. Not a serious subject matter. More like feel-good holiday movie. I don’t know why they compared it to Erin Brockovich which was about series class action, not some QVC wonder. It’s a big difference. But everyone got too jaded by stars and director to miss the main drawback.
I think people are starting to see through Russell’s mawkishly sentimental shtick. About time.
hear, hear!
“It was a movie about a mop inventor”
A recent best picture winner was about an Indian game show.
yes, starring real slum chi8ldren. What a greta opportunity for Hollywood to write few cheques, bring to kids to lalalaland, and feel good about themselves. Slumdog felt exotic, different and in a way important. Joy is none of it.
I feel like Lawrence is fighting the for 4th/5th spot with Rampling and Mara right now. As for other categories. I’m just not seeing too many possibilities right now.
Agreed. Theron is really wishful thinking.
“will help the media dispel the hype of Oscar baits”
Ha ha ha. Don’t count on it. This happened just last year with Unbroken. It’ll happen next year, too. It’s what comes from falling all over themselves to be the “first” to call a nominee/winner without having even seen the movie they’re pimping for.
Unbroken did not have the amount of hype Joy did.
If you believe that, you have a very short memory
Spotlight, Mad Max Fury Road and Carol are the 3 expected films with real chances to win Best Picture… in that order.
The only time, a film like MMFR came out as a critic darling literally winning or being runner up, anywhere, was in 2003, and the film won 11 Oscars including Best Picture. The only real difference, race-wise, it is that its SAG ensemble nom is, in the stunt cathegory. I think we’re just holding our consideration that MMFR is, actually, the film to defeat, because of the genre bias. But that didn’t prevent us to have a different consideration back in 2003, thanks to the acumulative effect of being the 3rd Best Picture nomination in a row, for the franchise.
The point that is bugging us most, while predicting is… Spotlight wins Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay and then… what?
Acting? Can Ruffalo or Keaton actually defeat Stallone AND Rylance, who are the ones that are winning the most awards and buzz?
Film Editing? MMFR has it almost locked. If it loses, it might be to The Martian or even Star Wars, but this is one of the most locked wins of the night. One just need to see the film, to realize it.
Director? We all know that, after all precursors, and his undeniable dueness, George Miller losing would be the biggest slap in the face since Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture to Crash.
That problem, however, does not translate to Carol. It can actually win Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, without anyone really tearing up in rage. I can see Haynes actually defeating Miller, even if as a longshot. For director I’d say is Miller-Haynes-Scott-McCarthy and chose your fave as 5th.
Yep. I was gonna say. Mad Max DID make the SAG – Best Stunt Ensemble.. it counts!!!
:)) Yeah, it totally counts…
Counts for winning Best Stunt Movie at the Oscars – the most important category of them all! 🙂
If Spotlight does keep winning for Best Picture in the preceding awards there will be a strong push for Mccarthy. I already read a lot of critics going on about how subtle and well handled Spotlight was.
I think it will be hard for a Keaton or a Ruffalo to upset for the WIN (if they’re even nommed) since Rylance/Stallone/Elba are nommed for the SAG/GG and one or more will win and have big speeches and the avalanche will have already started.
“Acting? Can Ruffalo or Keaton actually defeat Stallone AND Rylance, who are the ones that are winning the most awards and buzz?”
I think you can take SAG’s lack of a nomination for Stallone as a sign that he’s not well regarded among actors, who never have thought he could act. One reprise of Rocky does not make up for a career full of Rambos and Expendables. Also, CREED’s absence from the AFI list certainly represents a flat tire for that movie’s bandwagon. I can easily see Keaton picking up Supporting Actor at the Academy as a make-up for last year and because he’ll be in the Best Picture. If Spotlight is really popular, it could also carry in Tom McCarthy for Director, so long as he’s won the DGA. If Tom Hooper and Michel Hazanavicius could own Oscars, he certainly can. If Miller or Scott wins the DGA, however, then we’re probably looking at a 12 YEARS A SLAVE/GRAVITY-like split.
Hooper won ’cause his direction was extremely good, despite what naysayers keep saying. I regard The King’s Speech as a better film than The Social Network. Hazanavicius won because Hollywood fell in love with The Artist. This year is different… Miller is a legend (unlike Fincher) that has made a genre film so great that is perceived as the best of his career and the best of its genre in film history. They can easily deny MM Best Picture, but they know, giving it, to anyone but Miller, would be considered somewhat of a travesty. Think of Cuaron winning for Gravity or Spielberg winning his second for Saving Private Ryan despite all its gore. They both Best Picture to more Oscar-friendly fare, but STILL won Director.
“Director? We all know that, after all precursors, and his undeniable dueness, George Miller losing would be the biggest slap in the face since Brokeback Mountain lost Best Picture to Crash.”
Yes, and the Academy never does that – they NEVER go against what everybody else thinks should win! After all, Linklater and Fincher both won Best Director recently, despite losing Best Picture. Or, wait…
only DGA did actually reward Tom Hooper, and Iñarritu over Fincher and Linklater. So don’t mess pesonal picks with objective data. If Miller wins the DGA, Mad Max Fury Road will more than likely win Best Director at the Oscars, and it’ll become the Best Picture frontrunner… DGA is the best indicator for both cathegories.
You never said anything about Miller winning the DGA before… By “everybody else” I meant everybody outside the industry. If Miller wins the DGA, yes, he’s probably the favorite for BD (but still not BP, at least not based on that alone).
I agree but I have them in this order now:
1. Spotlight – if it’s lucky, it will get 6 Nominations (including possibly Original Score, since The Revenant was ineligible). If it wins, it will probably only win 2 Oscars (Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay) – Great showing.. smirk.
2. Mad Max: Fury Road – will get 11 nominations and probable wins for Best Director, Best Cinematography (sad for The Revenant, but Lubezki’s reign will come to an end, unfortunately), Best Film Editing, Best Production Design, Best Makeup and Hairstyle, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects – 7 Oscars
3. The Revenant – will get 10 nominations and win for Best Actor (please Sasha, put him back on top… he has like 5 critical wins already (Boston, Chicago, WAFCA, Dallas Forth Worth, San Diego) to Cranston meekly 1 (SEFCA). Yet Sasha is putting more weight on SEFCA then on the 5 that Leo has.. Go figure the logic there. After much thinking, I am currently predicting it to also win Best Sound Editing. At least give the film a second Oscar. Might be a stretch but will see.
4. Carol – possibly might win for Best Score but has competition from Star Wars and The Hateful Eight. Might probably win Best Production Design but I doubt it. So, it might shamefully also end up empty.
5. Room – will win Best Actress (looking more like it) and Best Adapted Screenplay
6. The Big Short – I still don’t get it why it is so high, though. For now I have it with only 3 nominations – Best Picture, Best Film Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay – and probably that’s it. Best Director is very crowded. Possibly Best Supporting Actor – maybe Bale over Tremblay but I think that Room will be stronger than The Big Short.
7. The Martian – will come in with 8 nominations but it’s running out of steam. The support for Sir Ridley Scott seems to have evaporated thanks to George Miller who is taking everything right now. Probably will end up empty handed.
I think that actually Bridge of Spies might get snubbed and only end up with 2 nominations – Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor. We’ll see how much they really care about it.
I think that Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight and The Danish Girl will fight for the last 2-3 spots. Straight Outta Campton might get just Best Original Screenplay and MAYBE Best Sound Mixing – that’s it.
Inside Out won’t make Best Picture – I don’t think.
It is what it is. Blame Mad Max Fury Road for sweeping everything. That’s it.
Why are people saying Lubezki will surely not win ? Like i obviously want MMFR to win but the Revenant had jaw dropping shots and has been mentioned as one of the standouts even for critics who mildly liked it.
3. Accuse me of sounding like a broken record all you want, but DiCaprio’s constant crying about how “hard” his job is is rubbing plenty of people other than just myself the wrong way. If he doesn’t like his job he’s free to retire any time.
4. Carol ain’t winding up empty.
5. Love Room but don’t see it winning best adapted screenplay. There’s not enough scope.
6. I agree that if Big Short gets in, it will have only a few noms.
7. Critics are different than the industry. The industry likes awarding people for their body of work and who has a better body of work than Ridley Scott? Nobody.
I would love it if the Academy is willing to spread the wealth around – but history has shown that once a big hit arrives, they usually shower it with everything and leave almost everyone else empty handed. Before Mad Max, I kinda believed in The Martian (reluctantly) and I could see it winning BP, BD and Best Adapted Screenplay, but now that Miller is hogging everything and the movie is taking almost everything technical (even the mighty Revenant can’t stop it), it will be very difficult to stop. Just sit and watch the carnage. Nobody expected this. I would be so happy if everyone gets to get a little bit of love – but that rarely happens.. This is kinda like Gravity and I also actually happen to believe that Spotlight is NOT as strong as 12 Years a Slave and Annie Hall so it might get toppled in the end. We’ll see.
I can’t really imagine if The Big Short, Spotlight’s biggest threat at the SAG awards for ensemble, gets nominated for BP, it doesn’t also get at least 1-2 acting nominations…
Michael Keaton was on track to winning best actor last year, sweeping most of the critics, until Eddie Redmayne won the Golden Globe. Don’t count Cranston out.
Keaton won the Golden Globes Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. He and Redmayne were in separate categories and both won.
Right, but I meant that Redmayne won nothing until the GG drama. Once he, playing a real life handicapped man, won the award it became inevitable he’d win the whole thing.
The Hateful Eight & The Danish Girl get in I think. Probably gonna be a very shocking nomination announcement this year & of course my favorite movie of the year doesn’t get nominated hahaha as soon as I see my favorite movie of the year I automatically take it off of my best picture predictions lol
Danish Girl get in would be the worst decision they could make
I could see The Danish Girl getting in as a surprise. But I really thought it would make it in GG Drama first … and it didn’t. It’s such a HPFA movie (though it did get 3 noms which is impressive). But yeah, en route to a possible BP at Oscars, I would have thought that – reviews notwithstanding – it would have gotten in with GG Drama, too.
It could EASILY miss, but I think it’s in the thick of things. People, AMPAS loves Redmayne, they’ll love newcomer Vikander, they clearly like/admire Tom Hooper’s work (in recent past), and the crafts are impeccable, executed by many AMPAS branch faves (Desplat, etc.).
Hi Sasha, my congrats, that’s a nice one again & well done! – But from my part of view I can only see one winner at the Oscar race and that’s the ovedue SIR RIDLEY SCOTT for BD “THE MARTIAN”.-
I am still not getting the impact of five slots versus ten. If the Best Pic was truly preferential (like the other major categories) then yes. But there are only two rounds of voting. If a ballot gets reassigned it will go to the next on the list. To make a difference in five versus ten that ballot needs to be reassigned to what would have been the sixth through tenth spot. That would mean the voter put non-contenders in the second though fifth spot.
When I looked at the simulated ballots from last year, it was less than 1% where a reassigned ballot did not have a valid title still in contention in the 2nd through 5th spot.
If Spotlight is to be the winner, I have a feeling something else is going to have to swing its way, for at this moment, it’s really only in the lead for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay. Fury Road has a strong hold on Director and Editing right now, so what else would it be? Supporting Actor? Their absence in the SAG nominations doesn’t bode well for that to happen. Perhaps they’ll just go with McCarthy for Director to help justify choosing Spotlight over several better films, which would be just as silly as when they switched over to Argo for Best Adapted Screenplay over Lincoln to help justify the former as their BP choice.
If Fury Road should make it in there, which at this point seems most likely (though it’s still hard to imagine the 60-something white guy putting it up for BP), then it’s going to have to hope for a Braveheart/Titanic victory (No Best Cast nomination from SAG and no Screenplay nomination from the Academy). Putting it that way, it seems like even more of a longshot than it already was.
It could get an Original Score nomination especially now that The Revenant was not listed as part of the list of eligible scores.
By the way, it could still reap Supporting Actor nods for both Keaton and Ruffalo despite the SAG snubs. Keep in mind Marcia Gay Harden won for Pollock without any major nominations (I know its Supporting Actress, but also the SAG-AFTRA merger also changed the demographics of the nominating committee meaning that people who never acted in a film or television could have also been involved with the voting process).
Now that The Revenant’s Score is ineligible, I can see 5-6 noms for Spotlight (Pic, Dir, an acting mayyybe, Writing, Editing, Score). 2 wins puts it in 12YAS territory. It’s a slight total, but one with precedent.
I don’t understand why Spotlight isn’t getting supporting actor nominations. Are the voters too confused about who to nominate in an ensemble that is all very good. I just don’t get it. Though I would never count out Mark Ruffalo who I think actors love. Maybe Julia Roberts will do some background campaigning for him since she loved working with him on The Normal Heart.
Is Brooklyn dead already? 🙁
I don’t think so – it could be the 9th! It could bump another movie. I’m just wondering why it didn’t show up at the AFI, for instance.
Isn’t that because it’s not American? Or am I wrong about that? And won’t it get a big boost at BAFTA?
According to IMDb, it’s a Irish/British/Canadian film, so that’s why it’s not on the AFI list.
I thought it wasn’t eligible for AFI
As far as I know, it wasn’t, because it’s not an American film, just like when The King’s Speech and The Artist got left off for the same reason. I wouldn’t say Brooklyn was dead, but I would say that it’s only good chance to take home an award is in the Best Actress category, but even there, Ronan is going to have a hell of a time competing with Larson.
Yeah I agree. If Brooklyn the film was as good as Saoirse’s acting, then she’s have a better than evens chance of winning. I think Brie has the better vehicle, so I expect her to win bect actress.
But the film is wonderful. It is every bit as good as Ronan’s acting. If Room is so great, why did it do such so-so box office business?
Because “box office” and “good movie” are two notions that have nothing to do with one another?!
It was produced by British and Irish; co-financed by British, Canadian and Irish. BAFTA will support it obviously; co-produced/financed by BBC & BFI.
I think it’s somewhere in 6-11. Just not sure if it’s the first tier of that, or 2nd. I think the Academy will go for it, but thus far, it’s BP-ness has felt minimal with the critics.
I have a feeling Spotlight will win SAG and quite possible the PGA. But I just can’t see the DGA going for anyone other than Miller. In the end I’m predicting another split night at the oscars.
Me too.
Todd Haynes?
Yeah don’t rule out Todd Haynes. My (very brave) pick since Cannes.
McCarthy can very well win DGA and so can Todd Haynes. Any of the directors being mentioned can really.
Brooklyn Brooklyn brooklyn Brooklyn Brooklyn brooklyn Brooklyn Brooklynnnn
(But I agree 100% with everything else.)
I think it will probably will get in the Best Picture nominee roster similar to Amour in 2013.
Yeah, same. I would vote for it. I hope it gets in – it deserves it.
It sure does…