Birdman. Most of us in the punditry world still don’t have an explanation for Birdman’s sudden popularity among industry voters. It was liked perfectly fine out of Telluride but not considered a winner. It was deemed mildly divisive, though wasn’t really. It was actor-driven, script- and dialogue-driven and most importantly, it was a love letter to artists who are waging a futile war against the onslaught of “superhero movies.” The latter point was one many Birdman supporters did not want to accept — it was popular because it was the better movie.
Why, then, did all of the critics and the British Academy choose Boyhood? What did the Hollywood industry see in Birdman that they didn’t see in Boyhood? What was the primary difference between the movies? Why didn’t the pundits — all except Birdman’s chief champion, Jeff Wells — see it coming? That sea change was rare. A complete shocker that illustrated just how wrong people in the punditry world can be. What we didn’t know last year was everything.
This year, Spotlight was the best received out of Telluride as the one film everyone liked and nobody hated. It is not offensive to Academy voters in any way, represents good people doing good things, and is driven by acting, writing and directing. It also has what Boyhood didn’t: big stars. But pundits are presented with a problem. Tom McCarthy is seen not quite as a dynamic choice for Best Director, especially in a year where George Miller made Mad Max: Fury Road, Ridley Scott made The Martian, Alejandro G. Inarritu made The Revenant, Steven Spielberg made Bridge of Spies, Todd Haynes made Carol, Quentin Tarantino made The Hateful Eight, Adam McKay made The Big Short, Cary Fukunaga made Beasts of No Nation, F. Gary Grey made Straight Outta Compton, and Ryan Coogler made Creed. These movies may not be perfect but their directors are the ones being talked about and winning awards. That leads some people to think a “split” vote might be ahead, with Spotlight easily taking Original Screenplay, and Picture, while another film takes Best Director along with a handful of other Oscars, like Gravity and Life of Pi. Why the Academy can’t just make the leap and go ahead and give the best-directed effects-driven movie Best Picture also is the difference and the ongoing conflict between the traditional and the evolving Hollywood.
Split votes between Picture and Director are rare. In 2012 and 2013 there was an agreed upon split that happened very early in the race. In 2012, Ben Affleck and Argo were still “flying under the radar” as the big winners. The talk swirled around Zero Dark Thirty in some circles, where it wasn’t thought Argo was [fill in the blank] enough. More talk swirled around Steven Spielberg’s masterpiece, Lincoln which was considered too “understated” or “sedate.” Once Ben Affleck was left off Oscars’ Best Directors list virtually seconds before winning the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe, it set into motion an unstoppable winner in Argo. It had what it needed to take home the big prize: urgency to vote for it in a year with many options.
Argo turned out to be what most Best Picture winners are: the film with the least amount of baggage heading in, and the one most voters could agree was the “best.” Zero Dark Thirty was killed by politicians and actors cum politicians — trampled within an inch of its life. Lincoln could not rally enough enthusiasm. The obligatory sentiment to “give Spielberg a third Best Director” Oscar was distasteful to some voters. At some point, people started watching and appreciating Life of Pi. More than that, suddenly Ang Lee seemed to be the director who took the biggest artistic risk with his beautiful, beautiful film. Thus, because they could not give Ben Affleck Best Director (he took the DGA) they gave their vote to Ang Lee and gave Argo their Best Picture. Only Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee had been nominated by the Globes, the Critics Choice, the DGA and Oscar. Precedent told us it would have to be between the two of them: some stats never die.
In 2013, for some reason, Alfonso Cuaron took the lead early on for Best Director. Awarding Steve McQueen never even seemed to be an option for anyone, anywhere. Cuaron’s lead was so strong, in fact, that many of the most prominent predicting pundits out there had Gravity predicted to win even in the last gasp before 12 Years a Slave just barely took the top prize. The Producer Guild had given its first tie in its history by awarding both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity.
Though I get criticized for leaning on stats too much, I did figure out that 2013 was mirroring 1968, when there was an agreed upon split very early on that gave Mike Nichols the win for The Graduate and In the Heat of the Night the win for Best Picture. One was awarded for artistic daring and excellence, the other for historically important reasons. Both In the Heat of the Night and 12 Years a Slave made history and both led with civil rights and human rights as their main themes. Nobody listened to me, though, because my stats had failed in 2012 when Ben Affleck broke one of the unbreakable rules of the Oscar race: you can’t really win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Of course, now we know you CAN.
The years where splits were predicted (and should have occurred) did not happen that way. David Fincher should have, at the very least, won Best Director for The Social Network. Martin Scorsese could have won for Hugo. In the end, those years did not split. They hardly ever do. Splits are much harder to predict than people think. The main reason is that they pick the director the same way they pick the movie: it’s the one most of them can agree upon – the least divisive. Even before the preferential ballot, people were predicting Martin Scorsese would win Best Director for The Departed but that some other film would win Best Picture. The two should always be united unless there is just cause for them to part.
As we head into this year, many are presuming there will be a split between Spotlight as the historically important film most people can agree upon as the best of the year, and the more artistically daring Best Directors who loom large around it. The problem with a split this year is deciding which director gets honored among so many standouts? Given the many different options for awards, the film most people can agree upon is the one that usually takes the prize — thus, you can probably go ahead and feel confident that this year will turn out to be a Spotlight/McCarthy juggernaut. The tricky part is, we won’t know this for a certainty until the much larger guild, the Producers Guild, hands out its award.
Let’s look at the directors who give McCarthy his stiffest competition, and the order of dates for the upcoming award wins.
George Miller at the age of 70 has made his most vivid, exceptional film of his career and one of the most original films of the year. The apocalyptic odyssey about saving the future of humanity from oppression is filled with color – more than that, practical visual effects that keep Hollywood’s traditional talents gainfully employed. Mad Max: Fury Road is wowing the critics groups already, though half are still divided and choosing Spotlight. Probably, given what we know at this moment, Miller would be your top contender for vote splitting, in keeping with 2012 and 2013 — Director, plus an armful of other technical Oscars like effects, production design, cinematography, score, editing, etc.
Ridley Scott at the age of 78, Scott has made his most profitable film to date. The flipside of Mad Max, The Martian offers a much more uplifting view of mankind in the near future. We’re capable of going to Mars, cooperating with other nations and we have somehow retained our love for music, botany and our sense of humor. In a different year, The Martian would run away with it. Add to that, Scott has never won an Oscar. The director of Blade Runner, Alien, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down and Thelma and Louise has never gotten there. But Mad Max sort of stepped in and presented Miller as the potential spoiler, at least so far.
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The wunderkind director who went long and deep to bring his survival wilderness epic to the big screen. Had Inarittu not just won last year he might be up for the top prize – as it is, he’s admired but the urgency to award him isn’t as strong as it would have been. Still, The Revenant is unlike anything seen this year or any other.
Todd Haynes – Inexplicably unrewarded, criminally overlooked, Haynes has finally made a film that doesn’t compromise his artist gifts but is at last palatable for Academy taste. The only love story that seems to be taking hold in the Best Picture race, Carol is a luscious, beautifully directed standout.
Adam McKay – The Big Short is a departure for McKay in one way. In another way, it’s just a channel over from comedy into black comedy — the blackest of the black. The Big Short features a large cast of actors who drive the story in a big way. While it isn’t an easy film, it’s a film that hits the button on what many people are concerned with today: not just Wall Street corruption, but the idea that the American people are getting continually fleeced by what this film calls ‘fraud.’ It isn’t just fraud in the banking system — it’s bigger than that. It’s about the corporations given free reign to run roughshod over the lives of American citizens. The Big Short is the movie that best defines American society in 2015. And for all of the reasons above it navigates a current of personal issues that concern us all.
F. Gary Grey – Straight Outta Compton is one of the biggest hits of the year. Its SAG ensemble nomination sets it up for a potential Best Picture nomination. It’s about time someone told this story. Grey could be in, especially with the DGA.
Cary Fukunaga – Did the impossible with Beasts of No Nation, one of the best directed and most memorable films of the year by far. Fukunaga is going places. A nomination could cement that trajectory.
Ryan Coogler – Creed might not be hitting with critics groups but it could very well hit with the Academy. Stranger things have happened.
Those are the directors who might take the spot if McCarthy isn’t chosen, which he probably will be. Picking just one is the difficult part. McCarthy succeeds if the alternatives split up the vote in many different ways, his work on Spotlight makes him the name most can agree upon.
Predictions as of today.
Best Picture
- Spotlight
- The Big Short
- The Martian
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- Bridge of Spies
- Room
- Beasts of No Nation
- Straight Outta Compton
- Inside Out
- Brooklyn
- Creed
- Sicario
- Trumbo
Best Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Matt Damon, The Martian or Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Best Actress
- Brie Larson, Room
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years or Charlize Theron, Mad Max
Supporting Actor
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Jacob Tremblay, Room or Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight (too competitive for both to get in) or or Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Supporting Actress
I suspect that Vikander is going to be the “it” girl heading into this race. I suspect she will get into supporting with either role, but that voters might bump her to lead for The Danish Girl and then vote for her in supporting in Ex Machina. Otherwise, Rooney Mara takes it.
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria; or Jane Fonda, Youth
Director
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
- F. Gary Grey, Straight Outta Compton or Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Jay Roach, Trumbo
Original Screenplay
- Spotlight, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
- Inside Out, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
- Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, the Coens
- Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
- The Hateful Eight, Quentin Tarantino
- Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Adapted Screenplay
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Phyllis Nagy, Carol
- The Martian, Drew Godard
- Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
- Room, Emma Donoghue
- Anomalisa, Charlie Kaufman
- Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
- The Revenant, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
- Beasts of No Nation, Cary Fukunaga
Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Big Short
- The Revenant
- The Martian
- Spotlight
- Bridge of Spies
- Creed
- Hateful Eight
Cinematography
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- The Hateful Eight
- Bridge of Spies
- Sicario
- Creed
- The Danish Girl
Production Design
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- The Danish Girl
- Bridge of Spies
Sound Mixing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- The Revenant
- The Hateful Eight
- Jurassic World
- Love & Mercy
Sound Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Inside Out
- The Martian
- Jurassic World
Costume Design
- Carol
- Cinderella
- The Danish Girl
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Crimson Peak
Original Score
- Carol
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Hateful Eight
- Inside Out
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Spotlight
Foreign Language Feature
- Son of Saul
- Mustang
- Labyrinth of Lies
- Viva
- Theeb
Documentary Feature
- The Look of Silence
- Amy
- He Named Me Malala
- Best of Enemies
- Listen to Me Marlon
- Cartel Land
- Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
- Heart of a Dog
- Where to Invade Next
- What Happened, Miss Simone?
- The Hunting Ground
Animated feature
- Inside Out
- Anomalisa
- The Peanuts Movie
- The Good Dinosaur
- Shaun the Sheep
Visual Effects
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Force Awakens
- The Walk
- The Martian
- Jurassic World