Birdman. Most of us in the punditry world still don’t have an explanation for Birdman’s sudden popularity among industry voters. It was liked perfectly fine out of Telluride but not considered a winner. It was deemed mildly divisive, though wasn’t really. It was actor-driven, script- and dialogue-driven and most importantly, it was a love letter to artists who are waging a futile war against the onslaught of “superhero movies.” The latter point was one many Birdman supporters did not want to accept — it was popular because it was the better movie.
Why, then, did all of the critics and the British Academy choose Boyhood? What did the Hollywood industry see in Birdman that they didn’t see in Boyhood? What was the primary difference between the movies? Why didn’t the pundits — all except Birdman’s chief champion, Jeff Wells — see it coming? That sea change was rare. A complete shocker that illustrated just how wrong people in the punditry world can be. What we didn’t know last year was everything.
This year, Spotlight was the best received out of Telluride as the one film everyone liked and nobody hated. It is not offensive to Academy voters in any way, represents good people doing good things, and is driven by acting, writing and directing. It also has what Boyhood didn’t: big stars. But pundits are presented with a problem. Tom McCarthy is seen not quite as a dynamic choice for Best Director, especially in a year where George Miller made Mad Max: Fury Road, Ridley Scott made The Martian, Alejandro G. Inarritu made The Revenant, Steven Spielberg made Bridge of Spies, Todd Haynes made Carol, Quentin Tarantino made The Hateful Eight, Adam McKay made The Big Short, Cary Fukunaga made Beasts of No Nation, F. Gary Grey made Straight Outta Compton, and Ryan Coogler made Creed. These movies may not be perfect but their directors are the ones being talked about and winning awards. That leads some people to think a “split” vote might be ahead, with Spotlight easily taking Original Screenplay, and Picture, while another film takes Best Director along with a handful of other Oscars, like Gravity and Life of Pi. Why the Academy can’t just make the leap and go ahead and give the best-directed effects-driven movie Best Picture also is the difference and the ongoing conflict between the traditional and the evolving Hollywood.
Split votes between Picture and Director are rare. In 2012 and 2013 there was an agreed upon split that happened very early in the race. In 2012, Ben Affleck and Argo were still “flying under the radar” as the big winners. The talk swirled around Zero Dark Thirty in some circles, where it wasn’t thought Argo was [fill in the blank] enough. More talk swirled around Steven Spielberg’s masterpiece, Lincoln which was considered too “understated” or “sedate.” Once Ben Affleck was left off Oscars’ Best Directors list virtually seconds before winning the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe, it set into motion an unstoppable winner in Argo. It had what it needed to take home the big prize: urgency to vote for it in a year with many options.
Argo turned out to be what most Best Picture winners are: the film with the least amount of baggage heading in, and the one most voters could agree was the “best.” Zero Dark Thirty was killed by politicians and actors cum politicians — trampled within an inch of its life. Lincoln could not rally enough enthusiasm. The obligatory sentiment to “give Spielberg a third Best Director” Oscar was distasteful to some voters. At some point, people started watching and appreciating Life of Pi. More than that, suddenly Ang Lee seemed to be the director who took the biggest artistic risk with his beautiful, beautiful film. Thus, because they could not give Ben Affleck Best Director (he took the DGA) they gave their vote to Ang Lee and gave Argo their Best Picture. Only Steven Spielberg and Ang Lee had been nominated by the Globes, the Critics Choice, the DGA and Oscar. Precedent told us it would have to be between the two of them: some stats never die.
In 2013, for some reason, Alfonso Cuaron took the lead early on for Best Director. Awarding Steve McQueen never even seemed to be an option for anyone, anywhere. Cuaron’s lead was so strong, in fact, that many of the most prominent predicting pundits out there had Gravity predicted to win even in the last gasp before 12 Years a Slave just barely took the top prize. The Producer Guild had given its first tie in its history by awarding both 12 Years a Slave and Gravity.
Though I get criticized for leaning on stats too much, I did figure out that 2013 was mirroring 1968, when there was an agreed upon split very early on that gave Mike Nichols the win for The Graduate and In the Heat of the Night the win for Best Picture. One was awarded for artistic daring and excellence, the other for historically important reasons. Both In the Heat of the Night and 12 Years a Slave made history and both led with civil rights and human rights as their main themes. Nobody listened to me, though, because my stats had failed in 2012 when Ben Affleck broke one of the unbreakable rules of the Oscar race: you can’t really win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Of course, now we know you CAN.
The years where splits were predicted (and should have occurred) did not happen that way. David Fincher should have, at the very least, won Best Director for The Social Network. Martin Scorsese could have won for Hugo. In the end, those years did not split. They hardly ever do. Splits are much harder to predict than people think. The main reason is that they pick the director the same way they pick the movie: it’s the one most of them can agree upon – the least divisive. Even before the preferential ballot, people were predicting Martin Scorsese would win Best Director for The Departed but that some other film would win Best Picture. The two should always be united unless there is just cause for them to part.
As we head into this year, many are presuming there will be a split between Spotlight as the historically important film most people can agree upon as the best of the year, and the more artistically daring Best Directors who loom large around it. The problem with a split this year is deciding which director gets honored among so many standouts? Given the many different options for awards, the film most people can agree upon is the one that usually takes the prize — thus, you can probably go ahead and feel confident that this year will turn out to be a Spotlight/McCarthy juggernaut. The tricky part is, we won’t know this for a certainty until the much larger guild, the Producers Guild, hands out its award.
Let’s look at the directors who give McCarthy his stiffest competition, and the order of dates for the upcoming award wins.
George Miller at the age of 70 has made his most vivid, exceptional film of his career and one of the most original films of the year. The apocalyptic odyssey about saving the future of humanity from oppression is filled with color – more than that, practical visual effects that keep Hollywood’s traditional talents gainfully employed. Mad Max: Fury Road is wowing the critics groups already, though half are still divided and choosing Spotlight. Probably, given what we know at this moment, Miller would be your top contender for vote splitting, in keeping with 2012 and 2013 — Director, plus an armful of other technical Oscars like effects, production design, cinematography, score, editing, etc.
Ridley Scott at the age of 78, Scott has made his most profitable film to date. The flipside of Mad Max, The Martian offers a much more uplifting view of mankind in the near future. We’re capable of going to Mars, cooperating with other nations and we have somehow retained our love for music, botany and our sense of humor. In a different year, The Martian would run away with it. Add to that, Scott has never won an Oscar. The director of Blade Runner, Alien, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down and Thelma and Louise has never gotten there. But Mad Max sort of stepped in and presented Miller as the potential spoiler, at least so far.
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The wunderkind director who went long and deep to bring his survival wilderness epic to the big screen. Had Inarittu not just won last year he might be up for the top prize – as it is, he’s admired but the urgency to award him isn’t as strong as it would have been. Still, The Revenant is unlike anything seen this year or any other.
Todd Haynes – Inexplicably unrewarded, criminally overlooked, Haynes has finally made a film that doesn’t compromise his artist gifts but is at last palatable for Academy taste. The only love story that seems to be taking hold in the Best Picture race, Carol is a luscious, beautifully directed standout.
Adam McKay – The Big Short is a departure for McKay in one way. In another way, it’s just a channel over from comedy into black comedy — the blackest of the black. The Big Short features a large cast of actors who drive the story in a big way. While it isn’t an easy film, it’s a film that hits the button on what many people are concerned with today: not just Wall Street corruption, but the idea that the American people are getting continually fleeced by what this film calls ‘fraud.’ It isn’t just fraud in the banking system — it’s bigger than that. It’s about the corporations given free reign to run roughshod over the lives of American citizens. The Big Short is the movie that best defines American society in 2015. And for all of the reasons above it navigates a current of personal issues that concern us all.
F. Gary Grey – Straight Outta Compton is one of the biggest hits of the year. Its SAG ensemble nomination sets it up for a potential Best Picture nomination. It’s about time someone told this story. Grey could be in, especially with the DGA.
Cary Fukunaga – Did the impossible with Beasts of No Nation, one of the best directed and most memorable films of the year by far. Fukunaga is going places. A nomination could cement that trajectory.
Ryan Coogler – Creed might not be hitting with critics groups but it could very well hit with the Academy. Stranger things have happened.
Those are the directors who might take the spot if McCarthy isn’t chosen, which he probably will be. Picking just one is the difficult part. McCarthy succeeds if the alternatives split up the vote in many different ways, his work on Spotlight makes him the name most can agree upon.
Predictions as of today.
Best Picture
- Spotlight
- The Big Short
- The Martian
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- Bridge of Spies
- Room
- Beasts of No Nation
- Straight Outta Compton
- Inside Out
- Brooklyn
- Creed
- Sicario
- Trumbo
Best Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
- Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
- Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
- Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
- Matt Damon, The Martian or Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Best Actress
- Brie Larson, Room
- Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
- Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
- Cate Blanchett, Carol
- Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years or Charlize Theron, Mad Max
Supporting Actor
- Sylvester Stallone, Creed
- Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
- Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
- Christian Bale, The Big Short
- Jacob Tremblay, Room or Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight (too competitive for both to get in) or or Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Supporting Actress
I suspect that Vikander is going to be the “it” girl heading into this race. I suspect she will get into supporting with either role, but that voters might bump her to lead for The Danish Girl and then vote for her in supporting in Ex Machina. Otherwise, Rooney Mara takes it.
- Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
- Rooney Mara, Carol
- Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
- Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
- Helen Mirren, Trumbo; Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria; or Jane Fonda, Youth
Director
- George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
- Ridley Scott, The Martian
- Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
- Todd Haynes, Carol
- Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
- F. Gary Grey, Straight Outta Compton or Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
- Lenny Abrahamson, Room
- Jay Roach, Trumbo
Original Screenplay
- Spotlight, Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
- Inside Out, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Pete Docter
- Bridge of Spies, Matt Charman, the Coens
- Trainwreck, Amy Schumer
- The Hateful Eight, Quentin Tarantino
- Ex Machina, Alex Garland
Adapted Screenplay
- Adam McKay, The Big Short
- Phyllis Nagy, Carol
- The Martian, Drew Godard
- Steve Jobs, Aaron Sorkin
- Room, Emma Donoghue
- Anomalisa, Charlie Kaufman
- Brooklyn, Nick Hornby
- The Revenant, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Mark L. Smith
- Beasts of No Nation, Cary Fukunaga
Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Big Short
- The Revenant
- The Martian
- Spotlight
- Bridge of Spies
- Creed
- Hateful Eight
Cinematography
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- The Hateful Eight
- Bridge of Spies
- Sicario
- Creed
- The Danish Girl
Production Design
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Carol
- The Revenant
- The Danish Girl
- Bridge of Spies
Sound Mixing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- The Revenant
- The Hateful Eight
- Jurassic World
- Love & Mercy
Sound Editing
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Revenant
- Inside Out
- The Martian
- Jurassic World
Costume Design
- Carol
- Cinderella
- The Danish Girl
- Brooklyn
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Crimson Peak
Original Score
- Carol
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Hateful Eight
- Inside Out
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Spotlight
Foreign Language Feature
- Son of Saul
- Mustang
- Labyrinth of Lies
- Viva
- Theeb
Documentary Feature
- The Look of Silence
- Amy
- He Named Me Malala
- Best of Enemies
- Listen to Me Marlon
- Cartel Land
- Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
- Heart of a Dog
- Where to Invade Next
- What Happened, Miss Simone?
- The Hunting Ground
Animated feature
- Inside Out
- Anomalisa
- The Peanuts Movie
- The Good Dinosaur
- Shaun the Sheep
Visual Effects
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- The Force Awakens
- The Walk
- The Martian
- Jurassic World
Christian Bale and Mark Rylance were both brilliant. Both are deserving of a win. They gave master classes in acting. Complete absorption into their roles.
“The tricky part is, we won’t know this for a certainty until the much larger guild, the Producers Guild, hands out its award.”
I’m not quite convinced yet either, but there IS a particularly strong stat suggesting Spotlight (or, less likely, one of the other 4 SAG Ensemble nominees) will win the PGA. It’s an easy one to guess: except for Gravity (which was tied, and its co-winner, 12 Years a Slave, was, obviously, SAG Ensemble nominated), all of the winners of the PGA in the SAG era have been at least nominated for SAG Ensemble. (Apollo 13 won both, so, no, there is no Braveheart exception here.) So, technically, there IS a half-precedent in Gravity (a name that, perhaps justifiably, should give hope to Mad Max and The Martian fans), but saying this rule is batting 1000 is also arguably valid, as it’s highly unlikely (to say the least) that we’ll have a tie again and, in all non-tie years, the PGA winner HAS been SAG Ensemble nominated. Hard to say which of these two interpretations is better, but, even if you consider 2013 a full-on exception to the rule, you still get 19/20 confirmations and a single exception, so a stat with at least a 95% record that says one of the SAG five will win the PGA. (So NOT Mad Max, The Martian, The Revenant, etc.)
The thought I garnered the most from this piece was a reminder of how hot Fukunaga is, dang.
Birdman’s win was not a surprise to me. Inarritu is well liked in the Academy and he wanted it. He and the cast were everywhere. I also knew ZDT was not going to win (female led wins are rare) and Affleck won DGA that year.
I think Leigh is the lead in support. With Tarantino and Weinstein the movie will definitely be seen by AMPAS members. Mara is not great at the campaign. Vikander has backers, but she still isn’t a household name (won’t hurt her in supporting but would in lead). I also wouldn’t put it past them to give Fonda another Oscar. Banks is probably in but McAdams is having a good year too.
I read something about Brooklyn Academy screenings being under attended because of the lack of stars/star director. Ronan will still get a nomination. Mirren is in play for Woman in Gold. Theron’s disadvantage is that AMPAS do not reward action heroines. Larson’s win chances are still the same (lack of fame and A24 hurt her). Lawrence gets a boost if Joy does good box office. Blanchett is everywhere and the news of her possibly joining Marvel gives her more headlines.
I’ll wait for DGA and PGA for director. Tarantino and Speilberg both have narratives and well reviewed movies within AMPAS wheelhouse.
I’m also still skeptical on The Martian and MMFR outside of techs unless they show at the Guilds. Creed is a dark horse, nostalgia could propel it to a BP nomination.
I will never forget that Sasha was the LAST pundit in the world to accept the split in 2013. She was blind till the last minute, thinking that 12YAS would win both.
Did I say “pundit”?
Sorry.
I meant person.
She bought too much into forced “historical win” narrative for McQueen even though he was complete non-entity against tsunami that was Awards Sweeper Cuaron, who actually became a historical winner himself, as the first Mexican to win Best Director. Though that fact didn’t play any part in his campaign. People saw incredible artistry in Cuaron’s work so he didn’t have to resort to trumping race card and begging for legacy win in order to win. Voters were in awe of fantastic work/artistic merit, not politics, and that’s how it should always be.
But that’s not how it always is and you always there’s nothing wrong with campaigning in order to win. McQueen was trying to make history in many ways and even if he didn’t want talk about it, his film was speaking it for him. I think he won BP because of how good his film was and also the potency and importance of his film. Remember McQueen is not Hollywood unlike Cuaron and Americans also didn’t like the fact it was a British filmmaker telling them about the dark chapter of their history. “Gravity” was huge box office smash and was visually outstanding and Cuaron deserved to be rewarded for it. The better film won BP but the more artistic achievement BD.
McQueen absolutely didn’t deserve to be even the runner up. His direction was nothing special, and Scorcese and Cuaron were so above him it wasn’t even funny. The only reason why some people thought he could upset was that his movie was going to win BP and splits are rare, while split after a split was unheard of. Until it happened.
I’m glad he lost. especially since he tried cheap race tricks to boost his chances while being total dick to everyone whom he expected to vote for him. LOL.
“Gravity” stood out but that was mainly down to its visual and I think much of that credit belongs to the tech team working on it. He won for BP, so I don’t know what you’re talking about. Anyway I would say Gravity is more a technical achievement than exceptional direction, but none the less the director gets the credit for making the picture.
Well, at least Gravity stood out. Unlike 12YS which has zero watch and zero rewatch value. It’s a statement movie, purely existing to make a statement and the win was a statement win. There’s nothing beyond that. It was a short-term purpose that it fulfilled and that’s it for it.
I might be wrong about this but I don’t think it matters what you think about it. It won, that’s all. It has won BP and has its place in history. Many films who have won BP don’t even have that.
And Cuaron won BD and MADE history. 🙂
I disagree. McQueen’s direction was awesome! But I made my points at the time, so I won’t do it again. More urgent things to discuss…
I think “blind” is inaccurate. She knew Cuaron was going to win. As someone who doesn’t believe that much in BP/BD splits I applauded her predicting McQueen regardless.
Let’s hope this prediction is not correct with regard to Brooklyn. For such a gorgeous and lyrical film with a commanding central performance to be on the outside looking in would be a joke.
TFA’s FYC is quite hilarious in Supporting Actor Category given, ahem, certain screen time, Ridley, Boyega and Ford are pushed as Leads so Sly has nothing to worry about. Ford ain’t shooting first.
http://www.waltdisneystudiosawards.com/#/star-wars
Click on Categories if the link doesn’t take you directly.
Records are falling, folks. Too big to ignore is understatement for what TFA is doing at the boxoffice (in a combo with reviews). THR is reporting “north of 130M opening day (Thursday night + Friday) “. It’s in. Hollywood’s gonna talk about it the whole holiday season and beyond. bye bye Marvel. hello BP nom.
What is the point of nominating TFA? Do you expect or even hope it would win? There’s no chance it could win. Nominating it will not make a big difference to its box office because it will be huge no matter what. Will nominating it make a statement? MMFR is one of the best films this year and can win BP while “The Martian” is making statement. How can TFA be more worthy than those? All three cannot get in and TFA is the film which needs a nomination the least and should be the one to lose out.
TFA needs a nom so that it could win for IX, end of trilogy. It’s all about paving the way. Nominate VII, nominate VIII, award IX.
So you’re saying TFA deserves to get in BP ahead of MMFR and The Martian? What’s so special about it? maybe another year but not this year because these two films deserve it more.
LOL, wut? Why some people keep insisting that TFA nom would be at the expense of those 2 movies? That doesn’t make any sense. All 3 get in. Done.
these 3 and revenant would make 4 hardcore genre movies. That is not happening.
You said it. based on reviews and omni important MC, it’s Revenant that’s missing. TFA has 95% RT, 94 BFCA and 81 MC. Rev has 81% RT, 88 BFCA and 79 MC. Yes, Rev’s raves are real raves not “thank you for not being The Prequels” but its negatives are complete dismissals, like “this movie’s worthless 100%”. MMFR is what Rev was supposed to be critically and otherwise (technical wonder, achievement in directing, etc). It’s stealing Rev’s thunder (including Cinematography…Lubezki was tipped for 3peat until MMFR started to clobber him with few wins by Carol too), not Martian’s.
IX will be directed by Colin Treverrow. It won’t win anything.
Trevorrow has better visual style and understanding of movies he’s sequelling than Abrams who is good at mimicking but without understanding why stuff he mimics worked originally. Trevorrow gets that part much better.
Treverrow does not have a better understanding of movies he is sequelling. His only good movie was Safety Not Guaranteed and the only other movie of his i know was Jurassic World which was shit. Entertaining and immensely enjoyable shit, but shit nonetheless.
JJ’s only good movies are ST09 and TFA. That’s not too far from Trevorrow’s one.
And? Who even mentioned JJ?
So you’re arguing BP nominations SHOULD be political, instead of based on what’s best? 🙂
If Adam McKay gets in for Best Director, don’t you reckon it could be that movie that goes all the way? We don’t hear much about it and yet it constantly appears on Top 10 Lists, critics awards, televised awards and guilds. It’s being too underestimated.
I believe that The Big Short will be this year’s “Birdman” and win AMPAS BP, BD, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing. It’s the perfect “zeitgeist” movie and demonstrates the “hip” and “progressive” sentiment among Academy voters. This isn’t to say it’s the best film, but that it is the “politically correct film” that will appeal to the plurality of Academy voters.
The Big Short was based on Michael Lewis’s book. The Wall Street was in fact responsible. Politically correct is not a valid criticism.
To clarify, I did not mean “politically correct” as a negative criticism. Perhaps the better term would have been “politically attuned” to the plurality of the Academy voters. The “message” of the movie, that Wall Street and Big Banks were responsible for the meltdown, is something that many, if not most, of the Academy will likely agree (along with others). Selecting the movie as Best Picture will make the Academy feel more relevant to the current times.
Haven’t read anything yet – just want to say, off topic, that I’ve just seen Star Wars: The Force Awakens, it’s fabulous (it’s far from perfect and doesn’t avoid cliches and predictability quite as much as it could have, so the fact that, despite those things, which can EASILY ruin a movie completely for me, and often do, I STILL say it’s fabulous should be a good clue as to what I think of its qualities), Daisy Ridley is awesome, and I really hope it gets a shit-ton of nominations, including Best Picture. Heck, I almost hope it wins!… fishnets would love that – we’re finally both rooting for the same movie! 🙂
Still think it’s close for the nominations, and it could easily miss, but I REALLY hope I’m wrong about that! It’s my favorite of the year so far (Brooklyn is close), but I haven’t seen a lot, still – so, for comparison, I’ll say that last year (which was a just slightly above average year at the top, for me, though quite strong in depth) it would have landed somewhere in my top 5 (unclear where, but not 1st or 2nd, probably). In 2013, which I thought was an exceptional year, it would have still been in my top 10.
It’ll have its detractors, for sure, and even people who will think it’s unremarkable or unimpressive. And they’ll certainly have a point, as do those, like me, who think it’s awesome, despite its slight flaws. But, still, it saddens me a bit to see that critics (it still has a slightly lower score than that one on Metacritic at the moment, which I understand is a highly debatable standard to go by, but it’s one of them) don’t get the fact that this movie is unquestionably much, much better than JJ Abrams’ Star Trek, which was pretty average, for me…
Wow, that’s great. It could land spot 8 or 9 on the Best Picture nominee list, but it will only get technical nods elsewhere. I wish Daisy Ridley would at least get nominated for Best Actress, but that category is already crowded.
I would still root for Spotlight or Carol or The Big Short for Best Picture though with Mad Max and Martian as second tier realistic choices.
Sasha has JLaw above Blanchett which is super WTF. Chuck JLaw and make room for Theron and Ridley. 🙂
I think Charlotte Rampling, Lilly Tomlin,, or Helen Mirren is more of a possibility. Ridley is not even listed on GoldDerby.
Goldderby that thought Joy was winning?
JLaw probably is getting nominated, but she’s no lock, so it could happen. But, sadly, Ridley’s performance isn’t the sort of thing they tend to nominate (though, again, I hope I’m wrong about that). They definitely should, in my opinion, but I don’t think they will. It’d be a wonderful surprise for me on nomination morning if they did…
Oh, I bet Jlaw is in (she has great reviews even if her movie doesn’t). I’m just thinking that she cannot be above Blanchett.
Yeah, probably not, I agree.
Ridley???…LOL!. No way. Absolutely no depth to her role or performance. Just because the movie is a huge box office hit does not mean a nomination is deserved. If that was the case, then Jennifer Lawrence should have been nominated for The Hunger Games series.
Lawrence gave a performance in those films that ran circles around Ridley’s performance in SWTFA.
JLaw should have been nominated for THG and especially CF.
Ridley’s getting raves so that’s critical consensus. It obviously doesn’t line up with your opinion but that’s the way it is.
Eh, not raves…a lot of reviews about showing charisma…which is fine but not Oscar worthy.
Well, Damon’s getting those for The Martian and is in Top 5 for nomination. Charisma reviews are great reviews anyway you slice it.
I just knew this was going to be great when I saw Michael Arndt co-wrote it – he has 6 writing credits on IMDb, of which I’ve now seen 4: Little Miss Sunshine and Toy Story 3, which are two of my absolute favorite movies of the last 10 years, Oblivion, which was nothing if not supremely interesting, and now this… Brilliant! (I’ve not gotten around to seeing The Hunger Games: Catching Fire yet.)
Also, it’s possible I just have a personal preference for Ridley’s performance – others might not find her performance to be that impressive. I just thought she was so charismatic, engaging and believable!… I thought she fit right into the world with unbelievable ease, never put a foot wrong and was the most interesting, yet consistent, character throughout (of course, that’s partially the writing) – this, in a movie full of interesting characters. But it’s entirely possible that’s just me… 🙂
I really loved the ending, too, by the way. The final scene in particular, but also the 15-20 minutes before that.
“fishnets would love that – we’re finally both rooting for the same movie! :)”
♥♥♥♥♥
I’m pretty much in agreement with the choices listed. But I have a sneaking suspicion that AMPAS will ignore Redmayne (BA) and Keaton (BSA) this year. Only because they had their moment last year and both actor and supporting actor categories are brimming with great performances to chose from. What a great year for actors!
There always seems to be one or two actors who get overlooked each year, though. Last year, it was Robert Redford and Tom Hanks. A couple of years ago, all the critics were anointing Albert Brooks in “Drive” as Best Supporting Actor. It seemed like he was a shoo-in for a nomination that year, and, indeed, I believe this very site had him as a lock for a nomination. Brooks’ reaction to NOT being nominated was very funny. “THEY DON’T LIKE ME! THEY REALLY, REALLY DON’T LIKE ME!” – pantomiming Sally Field’s acceptance speech in 1985. God I love the Oscars. The drama of it all!
“The two should always be united unless there is just cause for them to part.”
Why though? I’ve seriously never understood this. I know the vast majority of people feel this way but I just think Directing is directing and Picture is the sum of all the parts. So if a movie blasts everyone else out of the water then yeah it should win both, but when there’s lots to choose from it should split. Often.
Anyway, I do believe Best Director is going to be the heartbreaker award this year. No matter who wins, we’ll probably end up feeling bad for someone else too.
Yes, but the picture belongs to the director more than anyone else and to not reward him for it is just stupid. BP win only comes about because of the director therefore he deserves to win BD. Only where’s a film which has exceptional direction, such as “Gravity”, “SPR”, “Brokeback Mountain” “The Pianist” and “Life Of Pie” should there be a split.
I think if Argo had been in BD, then there wouldn’t have been a split that year.
So true.
Isn’t it weird that Ang Lee is among a small number of living directors with two Best Director Oscars, but never won Best Picture?
Roman Polanski also has two BD but I don’t think any of his films won BP either.
Polanski only has the one.
He has two BAFTAs. I get them mixed up sometimes. So The Pianist was his first? I felt sad for Scorsese losing BD again “Gangs Of New York” because Polanski had already won. But now I’m happy that he finally won for “The Pianist”.
If there wasn’t this thing called homophobia, ”Brokeback” would’ve won Best Picture …
You’re right but the point still stands. It wasn’t clear cut who will win BD after Affleck was snubbed and I think they went with Ang lee because his film was most exceptionally directed and also it was the Academy making it up him for their “Crash” fiasco.
For what it’s worth, here are the Top 10 from the Village Voice annual poll (125 critics)
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Carol
3. Spotlight
4. Phoenix
5. Tangerine
6. Anomalisa
7. Inside Out
8. Clouds of Sils Maria
9. Brooklyn
10. Assassin
Other categories, besides the usual, include Worst Film: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, and Movie Everyone Is Wrong About: Jupiter Ascending. You can see the full results on the Village Voice site
I’m not wrong about JUPITER ASCENDING. I loved it.
Me too!!
I hated Me, Earl, and The Dying Girl. It’s every indie cliche crammed into 1 movie.
Other award shows have splits more often but the Oscars, for whatever reason, hate splits. I think they believe that best film is the best directed film and thus award it the director too. I admire that because it could undermine the film that is being celebrated as the best film if they snub its director. There should only be a few occasions when there’s a split otherwise the BP winner should also win BD.
When we thought there could be split or at least reward for a director, such as “The Social Network” and “Boyhood”, the Academy didn’t split and went with their own chose and the lesser film. It wasn’t just that the Academy preferred “TKS” and “Birdman” over “TSN” and “Boyhood”, they preferred their directors too. That was the biggest two fingers to two of the best directors in the business now. TSN and Boyhood weren’t to the Academies taste and even less so their directors.
The Academy has no clue what to do with Linklater. Clearly they know he’s amazingly iconoclastic and have given him nods for two other films before Boyhood. Is it Linklater’s complete unwillingness to go big studio that bothers them? How else does one explain the nearly across the board snubs for his real masterpiece, Before Midnight.
It’s because Linklater does not work with big stars or do the show pony campaign.
Man, I can’t wait for EVERYBODY WANTS SOME.
I’m surprised to see that Rachel McAdams isn’t in the supporting predictions. She’s the only woman in a film that’s sure to be nommed a lot at the Oscars and has been nominated by the SAGs and Critic’s Choice. Plus she’s been really popular for the past 10+ years, that helps with the Oscars. I have a feeling that she’ll bump Jennifer Jason Leigh who’s more of a niche for 90s indie film aficionados.
I’m wondering if The Martian might have a shot at winning BP and Best Director. It was a huge crowd pleaser, made tons of money and got great reviews. It kind of seems like the Argo this year. It has good will for being more scientifically accurate than most, it has a good PR story – that it was adapted from an E book, and so far hasn’t faced any significant backlash – The Catholic church is sure to be pissed off with Spotlight and many Academy members might stay away due to subject matter.
I have a feeling that the Oscars are going to be safe this year.
Actually the Catholic church has had a very positive response to Spotlight
I’d add Harrison Ford as possible longshot and syphooner for Stallone’s chances for Creed. That is, if Ford rides the SW tsunami up to his 2nd Oscar nom, Stallone will have a really difficult time to defeat frontrunner Rylance.
I’d keep my guess as Spotlight / Miller / Leo / Larson / Rylance / Mara / Spotlight / Carol for the screenplays. Inside Out for Animated, Son of Saul for Foreign.
But this is far from over.
Wow. Fukunaga is one good looking dude.
YESSSSSSS!
If Scott wins Director, what else does the Martian win? Normally a movie that takes director wins a handful of trophies (Saving Private Ryan, Traffic, Brokeback, Life of Pi)
Probably some techs ? The two sound ones.. visual effect.. adapted screenplay
Over Mad Max? It could happen, but isn’t MMFR the cooler (and in my opinion) the better choice in the tech categories?
Eh, tell that to people who voted for atrocious SFX in Golden Compass.
Besides, best SFX of the year is Leo’s mama bear.
Actually I thought those were beautiful effects. They weren’t going for “realism.” Movie is crap though so I’d never nominate.
Better=/= Oscar. period.
MARTIAN isn’t winning shit.
The Force is strong with Star Wars. AFI was waiting for it and made it one of their Top 10. Now BFCA is voting on adding SW as their 11th Best Picture! TFA is re-writing rules. PGA/DGA and AMPAS are next. It’s in! Believe!
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/critics-choice-voters-may-add-850162
BFCA, you’ve gotta be kidding me. Really? What difference does that make. It competes in Best Picture and nothing else?
It doesn’t compete, duh. Only BP/BD match-ups compete unless it’s Affleck situation. But acknowledgment is nice and boosts its chance for AMPAS nom.
A Best Picture nomination is its only “win”. It won’t win the actual award for sure. Not when you have the old grump voters in its way or the fact that Martian and Mad Max are also there too.
SW was never in it to win it…until the finale one in 2019. 🙂
The new Star Wars movies can’t pull off a LOTR-esque victory lap sweep in 2019 since there isn’t the same sense of a grand achievement, nor is there a singular directorial vision being rewarded. Remember, there was great uncertainty that Jackson would be able to pull off LOTR (satisfying both Tolkien hardcores and casual/new fans) or that the trilogy would be successful. Today, nobody was doubting that the new Star Wars films would be monster hits, or that they’d be “good” (or at least jumping over the low bar set by the prequels).
That’s true but what could happen in 2019 is not that they award singular director’s vision but the phenomenon as the whole. What better way to split Picture (SW) and director (not Trevorrow). SW could be the best of the year without being ground-breaking (a requirement that dramas don’t need to get even a nom let alone a win). I think that, if 2 SW movies manage BP noms, third could pull a win assuming it’s great. Stars line-up (weak year, no important movie to steal the win).
Unless a Tom McCarthy or Adam McKay makes another Oscar film. Oh, and if Walt Disney is willing to pimp it aggressively.
Disney is willing to pimp it aggressively. You think AFI wait and BFCA rethinking are spontaneous? Riiight.
That’s if Colin Trevorrow can top Abrams success.
I’m rather worried about that assignment. I’m even more worried about the writers changing for the second movie, though…
I think Helen Mirren gets nominated in Lead for “The Woman In Gold” and Supporting for “Trumbo.” NGNG. Star Wars is a virtual lock for a 50th nomination for John Williams. And watch out for Julie Walters in Supporting for “Brooklyn.”
Carol, Danish Girl and Suffragate were not shortlisted for hair and makeup….
Always remember that the most prominent tendency in every category is *most*
This vote-splitting thing is a bit insulting to Tom McCarthy. Is he the best possible choice for Best Director this year? No, but it’s not like he’s a BAD choice. He’s a fine filmmaker who has made several terrific movies already, and given Spotlight’s success, he’ll get plenty of opportunity to make more.
If he loses this year, who knows, we could be sitting here in 20 years saying, “typical out-of-touch Academy, they’ve never given Thomas McCarthy an Oscar! Talk about overdue.”
You’re probably right about that. It’s only natural, though, that people want the win to go to the best possible choice. It’s pretty obvious there’s a lot of people who don’t think that is Tom McCarthy. Personally, I think BP, BD split makes the year more interesting. I’m hoping for George Miller, and Mad Max is pretty unlikely to win BP.
I wouldn’t say it is unlikely to win Best Picture. I think it’s 40% Spotlight, 25% Mad Max, 15 % Carol, then a 20% chances of some other film: The Martian, Trumbo, The Big Short, The Revenant, Creed… But as weeks go by, it is looking more and more Spotlight and a close runner up in Mad Max
This argument could apply to George Miller as well, so…..
Well, the ‘overdue’ argument is tough anyway. By the very nature of the Best Director prize, there are going to be a lot of “overdue” great filmmakers who’ve never won since they only hand out one per year. Even if you could magically go back and change the results so a ‘great director’ or an in-hindsight-best wins every year, you’re still going to have lots of excellent filmmakers left out.
P.S. Tom McCarthy had another film in March: ”The Cobbler,” with Adam Sandler. Rotten Tomatoes: 8%!
As much as I’d love to see Miller or Scott win I agree with this.
I don’t understand why did you put The Martian over Mad Max…and also, there’s only one lock in supporting actor category: Rylance. Vikander in Ex Machina? I wish but unfortunately she will probably be nominated in that horrendous baity movie just like Redcarpet who shouldn’t be there over Damon or Depp…
Still, i’m not even sure if The Martian is going to be nominated but i loved the movie even though is not on the same level of Mad Max…but i agree with her about The Big Short: if it wins Best Comedy in GG (which likely will…) i think we have a pretty strong contender.
I am very new to this so here goes stupid question. Which branch of the techs is responsible for coloring a film? Whoever colored Mad Max deserves to be nominated and probably win.
Sad to see Carol not picking up steam and would be heartbreaking to see it lose out to something like Big Short. But maybe it will come actual awards season.
Brooklyn deserves Room’s spot. The film does not really hold up on second watching but Larson remains my favourite to win. Her and Jacob’s performance was mind blowing.
I am a Mad Max skeptic for the BP win but how is Martian and Big Short ranked before it at this stage? Is it because they are safer ?
Would have loved to see a Seale- Deakins – Chivo showdown for cinematography but it looks like deakins is not getting mentioned a lot. Then there were two.
AMPAS does not recognize colorists during the main ceremony we’re all familar with…They probably should though instead of “Best Animated Film” nonsense.
“Brooklyn deserves Room’s spot.”
We can hope…
okay im calling it now. JLAW -snub. yes im bold and i said it. i predicted chastain last year and i was right. also i predict one surprise in supporting actor. the category is too wild. someone like oscar issac maybe? to balance out vikander’s potential nom as well. cant believe shes about to be a double nominee..wild…
I think J Law is out too… Rampling and Theron and/or Vikander will take the fourth and fifth spot.
Yes ! Mostly all i want this season is to see Vikander nominated for Supporting and Lead
Nope…Lawrence is in and it’s well deserved.
Sorry…that response was meant mostly for Sammy.
It absolutely is not well-deserved for Lawrence this time. But she mentions American dream a lot so she is in.
Yes, the nomination for Lawrence is well deserved…her performance is incredible and she carries the goddamned film-even those that did not like the film praise Lawrence’s performance.
The SAG Awards beat you to it. Their nominations already snubbed Lawrence.
According to Anne Thompson, that had to do with screener issues…Lawrence licks ass in JOY and is well liked in the industry. Odds are very good that she is in.
*kicks ass*.
Great predictions and analysis as usual Sasha;
But remember – Carol didn’t make the Best Makeup shortlist, shamefully.
The Danish Girl (as Sasha predicts at number three) didn’t either
Supporting actor continues to be the most unpredictable category. So many options can happen … I’m just hoping that Ruffalo or Hardy or Del Toro can somehow make it in.
If Vikander can make it in for Ex Machina that would be amazing.
Sasha’s theory that a lot of voters will bump Vikander’s turn in TDG to lead status in order to make room for her Ex Machina turn in supporting, actually makes sense. I kind of hope that’s going to happen, because I would love to see Ex Machina rewarded in this way (the downside to that is that Vikander might push my personal favorite, Charlotte Rampling, out of the lead actress line-up…).
I know … I want Rampling and Vikander x 2 to be nominated.
I think it would be refreshing to see an international newcomer make such a decisive breakthrough… and if it happens (2 x nominee), there is always the quite likely possibility that she will push out J Law instead (now, THAT would be something).
I’m also predicting a Vikander double nomination. She’ll get into Leading for her Felicity-Jones-like role (co-starring with Eddie Redmayne will enforce that notion). But it isn’t Charlotte Rampling who’ll have to worry, it’s Jennifer Lawrence. Blanchett, Larson, Ronan and Rampling are the sure things. The fact that I really really really really really want Rampling in has nothing to do with this, of course. As of now it looks like Joy will go the way of Suffragette (remember that one, folks?) and get zero nominations, although Lawrence may be its only one, and she may even be running third behind Charlize Theron, too for the fifth spot. Also pushing Vikander into Leading is Vikander in Ex Machina. A lot of people (I’m guessing) will see the two roles and thing The Danish Girl is Leading (which it is) and Ex Machina is Supporting (which it is).
Vikander is really a lead in Ex Machina. Ironically, it would be category fraud if she’s nominated for Supporting in THAT one as well.
She is not the lead in Ex Machina. The lead is Domhall Gleeson and both her and Oscar issac are supporting.
It’s sad that Del Toro is being totally ignored…probably my favorite supporting male performance alongside Rylance and Shannon.
What a trio!
I live in a medium sized southern town with 3 multiplexes within 10 miles and Spotlight isn’t playing at any. I am surprised. Brooklyn is here, but no Spotlight. I wonder how it’s doing outside of big cities.
Star Wars breaks previews record with 57M (that’s bigger than, for example, Ant Man’s opening weekend). 100M first day (they include Thursday) is done deal, as is opening weekend record. This will have the buzz and reviews to sneak into Top 8-9 with AMPAS.
If Star Wars gets in Martian or Mad Max gets out. As Mad Max is wonkier that would probably be left out. So YES !! to this if all of them can be included.
MM is not getting out. But Room will make room. Muahahahahh!
Just stop with that nonsense. It’s not going to happen at all!
I’ll repeat: I can’t believe someone likes your reply. For shame SW H8erz! SW is gonna rule over your precious Marvel muahahahha!
No. It won’t.
I can’t believe someone likes your reply. For shame SW H8erz! SW is gonna rule over your precious Marvel muahahahha!
Mad Max has the chance to be nominated in 12 categories and win 8. Only 26 movies had 12 or more nominations in oscar’s history and only 10 movies won 8 or more.
GO MAD MAX <3
Saw STAR WARS yesterday. I liked it!
EMPIRE > HOPE > JEDI > SITH > FORCE > PHANTOM > CLONES
It will get Visual Effects, Sound Editing & Mixing, Score and Production Design.
And Picture. records are falling and reviews are strong. It’s in. It’s peaking at the right time.
I was underwhelmed, I must say. It’s so painfully retrograde story-wise and without getting into specifics, it kind of rips off A New Hope, or at least, it doesn’t succeed in finding new ways to deliver the goods.
Haven’t seen the The Force Awakens yet, but back when Abrams was selected as director, I was concerned it might veer too heavily into “homage mode” riffing on A New Hope. I had hoped the new movie would fit into the Star Wars universe, while at the same time having enough uniqueness and not mirroring too closely prior films in terms of story/character arcs. I am mostly spoiler free but sounds like there might be some issues in that regard. Guess I will find out next week when I see it!
The parallels between Force Awakens and New Hope are pretty undeniable.
It’s the same story, tropes, even characters. but it works and delights.
It works, for the most part.
Exactly.
Same, although my rankings would be: A New Hope > Empire Strikes Back > Return of the Jedi > Force Awakens > Revenge of the Sith > Attack of the Clones > Phantom Menace
As a bridge between a glorious past and a hopeful future, Force Awakens does pretty well, if not spectacular at some points. The cast makes the most of respectful material. And Daisy Ridley is going to be a star – she and Lupita Nyong’o were the highlights for me.
But speaking as probably the biggest Star Wars fan on this side of the Outer Rim territories, and as someone who has always been a strong supporter of genre films getting BP recognition, I do believe that Force Awakens will only be a techs player and should not have any business being in the Best Picture conversation (although it probably snags a PGA nomination).
Ditto re: BP
My cast MVP’s were Ridley, Driver and Ford!
This.
Definitely those 3. Boyega was alright, but I liked him less here than in Attack the Block. And Isaac was great but wasn’t in it long enough.
I rank it above all of the first 3 (like I said, I haven’t seen the prequels yet), all of which I definitely have bigger problems with than TFA. The first one (1977) comes second, whereas the other two I couldn’t really rank, as I’m not a fan of either.