“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
The Oscar beat requires being comfortable with getting it wrong sometimes. Holding on to being right will cause nothing but pain and misery. This has been such an unpredictable year so far, in many respects, that the pundits are chasing the voters as opposed to the voters following the pundits’ lead. It is perhaps presumptuous to think anyone ever pays attention to the insular chatter in our circles, but truth be told we’ve become a bit complacent in the estimation of our own ability to help steer the ship. Awards cycles like this and days like today are a good reminder that often, we don’t.
We were thrown first by the SAG Awards Ensemble nominations wherein many films we thought were shoo-ins turned out to be not. We were next thrown by the Editors Guild noms because Spotlight, the Best Picture frontrunner, was absent. We were again thrown by the Art Directors Guild and now the Producers Guild when Carol was left off both lists. We’ve been surprised to see Sicario make such a strong showing at in the guild nominations so far.
As right as some of us have been about the year in some respects — Scott Feinberg predicted Straight Outta Compton when people like me wouldn’t give it the time of day; Kris Tapley expressed some trepidation with Carol’s automatic inclusion into the race — we can just as easily be wrong about our predictions. We never really know until the awards come down. In fact, this is such a year that we really have NO IDEA how the Oscar votes will land.
There are a few things to take away from the PGA announcement today that may or may not matter:
- The Oscars and PGA have roughly the same number of voters – 6,000 give or take for each group. They are voting at the virtually same time. They both use the preferential ballot. The PGA voters get ten slots, where Oscar voters only get five to nominate. That is probably going to make SOME difference this year, being that it’s so all over the place.
- The Oscars and PGA are filling out their ballots at the same time. That means their momentum shifts are likely going to be similar. That means there isn’t that much time for enough voters to change the order of their predictions to, say, get Carol in, or even to push harder for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to get in. If they’ve all voted, their results will probably be somewhat close to the outcome Producers Guild.
- There will naturally still be differences in the choices between guilds. Each branch nominates their favorites — thus the Producers Guild can only really give us an idea of Best Picture, whereas SAG-AFTRA is a better predictor of the acting categories.
- Star Wars’ record-breaking top-of-the-box-office news is fairly recent, like within the last couple of days – not enough time to send a ripple effect through the industry of shock and awe. That’s perhaps why it didn’t make the PGA list.
- At the end of the day, votes are anonymous. They don’t attach their names to the voting so you are getting a mostly honest take of what they like and don’t, take it for what it is.
The takeaway today, given that we’ve now heard from several guilds, is that The Big Short is likely going to give Spotlight a run for its money in terms of what movie can win, but we already knew that. The Big Short is the only film with SAG Awards Ensemble + ACE Eddie + PGA nominations. No film since 1995 has ever won Best Picture without those three. That doesn’t make it a long shot to win — it makes it a serious contender to win. It also has a Globes nomination for screenplay. The only thing The Big Short has going against it is that it wasn’t released at Telluride or Toronto or Cannes. In every other respect, it has what every Best Picture winner needs. Some have said, “It’s too confusing.” And that may be true, but this year of all years people understand the take-away: “Wall Street bad.” Anyone who carefully considers what The Big Short is about will be richly rewarded, but it probably isn’t a requirement that people fully understand it before they can like it.
In general, the PGA matches 7 out of a possible 9 or 10 eventual Oscar nominees. You could probably say this year’s race, were there five only, might go:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant or Bridge of Spies
It’s really hard to tell where their passion choices lie and that is what you’re looking for. That is six right there. We are looking for one or two more from among the following:
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Sicario
Find the one movie that the Academy will like the most and that is your 7th Best Picture contender. You might be able to squeeze out one more and get 8. It’s possible you could get 9 or 10 as well.
What did the ACE Eddies also like?
The Force Awakens
Sicario
What did the SAG Awards Ensemble also like?
Trumbo
Beasts of No Nation
Which films are seen to be struggling to show up at the guilds?
Carol
Room
When we see a film suddenly show up on Oscar’s list — like Selma or Philomena or Amour — they aren’t always backed up by broader guild support because their champions are a much smaller group of people. And that, my friends, is where Carol benefits. That is why I think, actually, either Carol or Room or Beasts of No Nation could still show up at the Oscars because they might have a smaller but very passionate group of advocates. Thus, a reasonable prediction for Best Picture might look like:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
Carol
Stay tuned for WGA nominations tomorrow and — the big one – the DGA nominations on the 12th.
Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar
2015
Spotlight | |
The Big Short | |
The Martian | |
Mad Max: Fury Road | |
The Revenant | |
Bridge of Spies | |
Straight Outta Compton | |
Brooklyn | |
Sicario | |
Ex Machina |
2014
Birdman | Birdman |
Imitation Game | Imitation Game |
American Sniper | American Sniper |
Boyhood | Boyhood |
Grand Budapest | Grand Budapest |
Whiplash | Whiplash |
Theory of Everything | Theory of Everything |
Nightcrawler | |
Foxcatcher | |
Gone Girl |
2013
American Hustle | American Hustle |
Blue Jasmine | |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips |
Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club |
Gravity | Gravity |
Her | Her |
Nebraska | Nebraska |
Saving Mr. Banks | Philomena |
12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave |
Wolf of Wall Street | Wolf of Wall Street |
Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar
2012
Argo | Argo |
Moonrise Kingdom | Amour |
Beasts of the Southern Wild | Beasts of the Southern Wild |
Les Miserables | Les Miserables |
Life of Pi | Life of Pi |
Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook |
Lincoln | Lincoln |
Skyfall | |
Django Unchained | Django Unchained |
2011
The Artist | The Artist |
The Help | The Help |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
The Ides of March | Tree of Life |
War Horse | War Horse |
The Descendants | The Descendants |
Bridesmaids | |
Hugo | Hugo |
Moneyball | Moneyball |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close |
2010
The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
The Town | Winter’s Bone |
The Fighter | The Fighter |
The Social Network | The Social Network |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
Black Swan | Black Swan |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right |
Inception | Inception |
Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3 |
True Grit | True Grit |
127 Hours | 127 Hours |
2009
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
Star Trek | A Serious Man |
An Education | An Education |
Avatar | Avatar |
District 9 | District 9 |
Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds |
Precious | Precious |
Invictus | The Blind Side |
Up | Up |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air |
2008
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
Milk | Milk |
The Dark Knight | The Reader |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
2007
There Will Be Blood | There Will Be Blood |
Juno | Juno |
Diving Bell and Butterfly | Atonement |
No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
Michael Clayton | Michael Clayton |
2006
Babel | Babel |
The Departed | The Departed |
Dreamgirls | Letters from Iwo Jima |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
The Queen | The Queen |
2005
Crash | Crash |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain |
Capote | Capote |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night, and Good Luck |
Walk the Line | Munich |
2004
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
The Aviator | The Aviator |
Sideways | Sideways |
The Incredibles | Ray |
2003
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit |
Mystic River | Mystic River |
Master and Commander | Master and Commander |
ROTK | ROTK |
The Last Samurai | Lost in Translation |
Cold Mountain |
2002
Adaptation | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York |
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | The Hours |
Road to Perdition |
2001
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings | The Lord of the Rings |
Harry Potter | Gosford Park |
Moulin Rouge | Moulin Rouge |
Shrek | In the Bedroom |
2000
Gladiator | Gladiator |
Almost Famous | Traffic |
Erin Brockovich* | Erin Brockovich |
Billy Elliot | Chocolat |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
1999
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules |
American Beauty | American Beauty |
The Insider | The Insider |
Being John Malkovich | The Green Mile |
The Hurricane | The Sixth Sense |
1998
Life Is Beautiful | Life Is Beautiful |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakespeare In Love |
Gods and Monsters | The Thin Red Line |
Waking Ned Devine | Elizabeth |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan |
1997
Titanic | Titanic |
Amistad | The Full Monty |
L. A. Confidential | L. A. Confidential |
As Good As It Gets | As Good as it Gets |
for Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting |
1996
Fargo | Fargo |
Shine | Shine |
Hamlet | Secrets & Lies |
The People vs. Larry Flynt | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient |
1995
Leaving Las Vegas | Babe |
Dead Man Walking | Braveheart |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility |
Il Postino | Il Postino |
The Bridges of Madison County | |
The American President |
1994
EXACT MATCH
Four Weddings and a Funeral | Four Weddings and a Funeral |
Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
Quiz Show | Quiz Show |
Pulp Fiction | Pulp Fiction |
The Shawshank Redemption | The Shawshank Redemption |
1993
EXACT MATCH
The Fugitive | The Fugitive |
Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
The Remains Of the Day | The Remains Of the Day |
The Piano | The Piano |
In the Name Of the Father | In the Name Of the Father |
1992
A Few Good Men | A Few Good Men |
The Crying Game | The Crying Game |
Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
Scent Of a Woman | Scent Of a Woman |
Howards End | Howards End |
1991
The Silence Of the Lambs |
The Silence Of the Lambs |
1990
Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves |
1989
Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy |
I honestly don’t believe Spotlight will win the Best Picture Oscar. It’s a well made film. There’s nothing bad to say about it. Perhaps that’s it though. From an audience point of view the screenplay and performance style (besides Ruffalo in parts) is ordinary. There’s nothing wrong with ordinary. It’s a clever technique here, particularly within the journalistic arena – it rings true, it just doesn’t ring winner.
I can only suggest 5 probabilities for Best Picture nominations at this stage:
The Big Short
The Martian
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
The other slots involve a lucky dip!
I’m nervous that Spotlight is the Sideways of this year. In fact, without looking it up, I’m guessing their presence in the critics’ awards were fairly similar. And just like Sideways, it might only win screenplay. The question then, what is this year’s Million Dollar Baby?
I’ve finally decided to do what I pretty much always do and just go with the safest choices for my (again, hopefully, final) BP nomination predictions (which is probably why I suck at the nomination predicting game):
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn (because I choose it over Sicario from among what should be the two weakest PGA+BFCA nominated movies)
Room (because of the GG screenplay nomination and very likely multiple major nominations – Larson, screenplay, maybe even Tremblay)
Carol (because of the GG BD nomination and the massive 9 BFCA nominations total)
NGNG: Steve Jobs.
No Sicario (because it’s not really a contender for any of the major awards – I don’t consider score major – and I can, thus, easily picture it as a tech-nominated movie only, as good as it is and as much as it deserves to get more)
No Straight Outta Compton (because I can’t see what else it’s getting nominated for)
No Star Wars: The Force Awakens (because the stats don’t support it much and I don’t want to predict it and be wrong anyway)
No The Hateful Eight (because it’s not really the type of movie that gets nominated without either the PGA or BFCA nomination)
No Steve Jobs (for the same reason as The Hateful Eight – though this is my NGNG, as can be seen above)
No Ex Machina (because there are too many others)
Agree except I’m looking for justification to include Star Wars too.
I think it could fill the “heart” slot (like Philomena, The Blind Side, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, arguably Amour – which I know most people will hate my mentioning in the same sentence as those other three, but I’m talking strictly about type of movie, not quality). There’s a chance…
Hmmm, do you think Room could be that “heart’ slot?
I was talking about the potential surprise 9th nominee – Room wouldn’t really be a surprise.
Yeah I know what you were getting at. I’m just thinking after the Producers Guild no show for Room whether it may miss out with Best Picture nomination but then reading your comment about the 9th heart slot maybe Room will be that that film voters feel attached too.
Also I’m hoping Sicario gets a best picture nomination too!
I have Room in the top 8, based on the GG screenplay nomination and other things. The PGA snub isn’t a deal breaker. Stuff gets in without it every year.
I just want it in as it’s so damn good!
Mad Max = Gravity?
Big Short = American Hustle?
Spotlight = 12YAS?
Hmm..
Really hope Mad Max shocks everyone and wins BP
I’m going with BP noms for:
The Big Short
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Brooklyn
Carol
– – – – –
Trumbo
Sicario
I hate seeing Carol being left out by the producers guild. It is the movie of the year.
What a year. I would add to that Best Picture list Trumbo, Steve Jobs and maybe even The Hateful Eight
I so want to see the martian win for best picture.
I’m keeping the wildcard spots for Creed, Beasts, Steve Jobs, Joy, The Danish Girl, or Hateful Eight. Russell and Tarantino may have to settle for screenplay this time. I don’t actually believe AMPAS will nominate Ex Machina for BP.
Bridge of Spies could take it all. Oscar voters love Spielberg, the Coens, and Hanks. It’s the kind of historical bait they can get behind.
There was already an LA Times article about OscarsSoWhite. If that happens again it will result in another lower ratings year and would overshadow the entire ceremony.
The last minute campaigning is at peak level. Some actors/movies could get a boost from the Globes on Sunday.
PERFECT use of that Mark Twain quote IMO. 🙂
Jacob — You know that Mark Twain quote is the opening caption at the very beginning of The Big Short, yes? 🙂
I’m trying to watch The Revenant right now…….1 hour and 40 minutes it and I just want to walk away. Talk about boring. This movie blows. Other than cinematography, it’s a steaming pile of poop.
My friend took me to see it, and we almost walked out too. A big confusing mess, and disgusting! I was nauseated the entire time. I never knew what was going on, and Leonardo DiCaprio just sat there mumbling and barely conscious. I can understand he’s wiped out because he keeps trying to win an Oscar and fails, but it’s not necessary to show us what it’s like to be that tired.
I just watched Waking Ned Devine for the first time. Truly a great piece of cinema! The best movie I’ve seen all year. Too bad it came out in 1998.
The Revenant was ridiculous masculinity masturbation nonsense. Utterly stupid 2.5 hour silent film full of bullshit that would have best been exercised as a brief short film. So dumb.
You forgot “pretentious”!
The Revenant has the late breaking thing going for it plus Tom Hardy is very popular in the UK and that’s a large block of Academy members. So I think Rev scores a bunch of noms including Hardy getting in with the Leo tide for Best Supporting Actor.
1.) Picture 2.) Actor 3.) supporting Actor 4.) Director 5.)costume 6.) vfx 7.) Cin 8.) Sound editing 9.) sound mixing 10.) hair & makeup. 11) editing
Mad Max: Doesn’t get the noms for the acting categories but it will get one for Score and Set Design so I do see it tying with The Revenant for most noms at 11 a piece. If by some miracle Charlize can sneak in on the wave for 12, my grinch heart might actually shed a tear.
Revenant has NO CHANCE at supporting actor, VFX, editing, score, or set design. Thanks to the most expensive team of shills ever bought it might just squeeze out six, and even THAT isn’t deserved. Those will stand forever to disgrace the Academy with evidence just what money can buy.
Hardy’s got a slim chance at Supporting Actor at the Oscars. But the Broadcast Film Critics did nominate him. And we’ll see what BAFTA does (or doesn’t) on Friday. … Obviously, the Academy ruled Sakamoto’s score ineligible, so it won’t be in the Oscar running. But it has been nominated elsewhere: Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice. … And ”The Revenant” has been shortlisted for special effects and makeup, so it’s already made it through one round. And the guilds for Art Directors and Film Editors have nominated it. … Obviously, you can keep hating ”The Revenant” all you want, but there are enough film professionals & critics who think that it IS worthy of nominations. And ultimately, it doesn’t matter what you or I think; it’s their votes that count at awards time.
Well you are right it has no chance for score. It was deemed ineligible. I also agree its chances at set design are slim but it was shortlisted for the category. And the Academy does allow everyone to vote in the second round. A many award has been won from people just filling in familiar names in cats they have no business voting on.
But for Vfx, there shouldn’t be outrage if it won, the Vfx work in the movie is top notch. There less of a case for editing and BSA but again, I don’t think we would need to pull out the pitchforks if it won either cat.
If he’s so popular in the UK why hasn’t he been nominated in the past? They’ve barely even nominated him for their own awards when he deserved to be.
Hardy’s having a career year with 3 awards-buzzworthy films: ”Legend,” ”Revenant” & ”Mad Max.”
”If he’s so popular in the UK why hasn’t he been nominated in the past?” He has been, many times.
* BAFTA: Won the Rising Star Award (2011). Nominated for Best TV Actor, ”Stuart” (2008).
* British Independent Film Awards: Just won Best Actor for ”Legend” (2015). Nominated for ”Locke” (2013) and ”Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” (2011). Won Best Actor for ”Bronson” (2009).
* London Critics Circle: Currently up for Best Actor for ”Legend,” Supporting Actor for ”The Revenant” and Best British/Irish Actor of the Year. Also, nominated in the past for Best British Actor of the Year for ”Locke,” ”The Drop” and ”Bronson.” And Supporting nominee (”Inception”).
I supposed I could have quantified my statement by saying popular now. He finally made it over the hurdle to bold name awareness by the general audience, not just geeky film folk. He always got overlooked for his contemporaries that are more media friendly.
He’s also in three movies from studios that have the money and time to promote him.
For 2015 he had the promotional superfecta of Peaky Blinders S2 on BBC, MMFR from Warner Bros, Legend from Working Title/Universal Studios and The Revenant with 20th Century Fox. My understanding was London was plastered with Legend signs which featured Tom front and center. The movie broke a couple of box office records there opening weekend. He also did more promotion work than the usual next to nothing that he suffers thru, for Legend. He did his first talk show appearance since he starred in Inception. His myspace page and dubsmash clips went viral and there was a big todo made of his TIFF presser. Lots of things to keep him in the public awareness. He just got the BIFA for Legend and is expected to get a BAFTA nom as well. (We shall find out Friday at 7:30am London time)
ETA: see also Wayman Wong list of noms Tom’s had. I would just add for North America he got the Toronto Film Critics and LA Film Critics award last year for best actor for Locke. He won it again in Toronto this year for Legend. I think he was second or third on the ballot for Legend in the Boston Critics Award.
Yes. When TDKR was released I was bummed that he didn’t really do any press here in the States. I think he’s actually good at talks shows having watched what he’d done years ago several times over. 😉 I thought for sure he’d have to but I guess he hates it that much that he got out of it. Going all the way back to WARRIOR he should have been getting awards especially from the hometown crowd But alas…
He did zero press outside of junkets for MMFR too. I knew we were doomed to pick over scraps when that happened. He let Charlize handle the ball and obviously Leo is doing the lion’s share of the work for The Revenant. I think he is great on talk shows and long interviews but he is very very ticky and gives long answers that some (not me of course) would categorize as rambling. And for the new Nolan I see him ducking us as well but there is hope on the horizon. He is the writer, producer and star of Taboo which will be on FX in the States, BBC1 in UK. He will have to promote that one. 🙂
Warrior is an interesting case because it took over a year to edit so while he shot it b4 Inception it came out afterwards and he was by that point working on TDKR. And people only wanted to talk about Bane and he was under Nolan silence. Also Lionsgate sucks at PR. They do well despite themselves.
With Ridley Scott a lock, I see The Martian with 8 likely noms. Funny how some here claimed it would fade when the late comers came out, or it would be overthrown when Star Wars came out. But Mark Watney just keeps sciencing the shit out of whatever comes along. Ah, the nerds, their power.
Matt Damon picked up his best actor win from NBR tonight. 🙂
CRAP! We aren’t going to know much tomorrow with WGA for a few of these films we are wondering about. Forgot that there are a handful of films that the WGA won’t consider in the category: Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Brooklyn, Room, Ex Machina, Anomolisa, Danish Girl…all won’t be included.
I was thinking Brooklyn and Room specifically will be interesting to watch but no dice. Shit.
True, WGA is one of the “weaker” precursors, but it can make or break contenders sometimes. Braveheart won Original Screenplay WGA en route to a surprise Best Picture Oscar win. Gravity missed out on both WGA and Oscar screenwriting awards foreshadowing its Best Picture miss.
Obviously with these names out (specifically Brooklyn and Room), for Adapted Screenplay, the seemingly no brainers will for sure get in now (Carol, The Big Short, The Martian, The Revenant) and probably Steve Jobs or Trumbo. Nothing earth shattering there. Having Brooklyn/Room available would for sure show where things stand. Tough to see a clear picture without them.
I’m confused. Isn’t Nick Hornby (”Brooklyn”) a member of WGA?
He got a WGA and Oscar nominations for ”Wild” (2014).
Not sure but Brooklyn is not eligible. That’s a fact.
”Brooklyn” is ineligible for WGA, but Hornby received a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination for ”An Education” (BP too) back in 2010 without WGA! Same producers for ”Brooklyn” and they also received PGA for ”An Education”.
This year is so strange, I fully expect some ‘holy shit!’ and ‘wow!’ nominations in the acting categories. Maybe nothing TOO crazy but makes sense once we see the full scope of things that morning.
– Looking at Del Toro and (maybe?) Blunt for Sicario
– Charlize or Hardy for Mad Max if they really really love it
– Vikander double nom or for Ex Machina not Danish Girl in supporting
– A supporting character getting in due to great lead performance a la Magie in Crazy Heart, McTeer in Albert Nobbs, etc. But which for this year could it be? Julie Walters for Brooklyn, Tremblay in Room (though that is looking highly unlikely), etc
Hardy won’t be nominated for Mad Max, but Theron could be a surprise nominee. That would be a real signal to how much they like the movie if she did make the final five. And I think Jacob Tremblay will end up getting a nod.
Hout is the only other one who should be nominated and if the universe turns itself up on its head can have a slight chance.
I wonder if Vikander for Ex Machina and Ex Machina in general coming up strong has affected Room’s chances.. Maybe A24 sees Ex Machina as an easier sell.
I think so. According to Pete Hammond ”Room” hasn’t been an easy sell and it’s been a struggle to get voters to watch it, same with ”Carol”. Hammond also mentioned that PGA now have more ”digital” members who likely voted for ”Ex Machina”. It was a BO success in the US and Vikander’s real chance of being nominated is stronger with ”Ex Machina” than ”The Danish Girl”.
Nice!
OK, I’ve finally managed to come up with a logical list of 9, that I can live with, for my (presumably final) BP nomination predictions:
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Sicario (I’m now convinced)
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
NGNG: Joy.
I find your lack of femme-films…disturbing. 🙁
Well, you may be right, but if Carol misses, it would be the most pre-awarded/pre-nommed film to miss a BP nom since the field expanded in 09 (granted, not a long history).
You’re making me doubt my lineup again… 🙁 Ahhh, I hate this nomination predicting business!… So hard! Too many stats for too many movies, contradicting each other frequently…
Carol not even for NGNG ?
I don’t think it’s unlikely enough to be NGNG. Joy would be a real shocker at this point, hence it’s an NGNG.
I thought you meant NGNG as like the 10th slot should it happen. Oops @ me
🙂 I couldn’t BEGIN to decide what my 10th place is…
TFA i assume.
I wish!…
Saw this when I got out of work and just as I ws about to back-flip over Ex Machina making the list I noticed that Carol had been ignored.
I guess it’s possible that this is due to a huge field of great films this year and the assumption was made that Carol was a shoo-in so “maybe I’ll vote for something else instead”.
Fact is, their most solid looking list in years is marred by the fact that one of the year’s most artistic and imaginative achievements was not included. That’s what happens when you put art to the vote.
I think that The Revenant is a top 5 for Best Picture at the very least. I think it is a lock for the following categories:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Cinematography
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
It should easily get Best Film Editing – so that’s 7 solid. It got the ACE Eddie Nod.
The categories I’ll be most interested in looking to find whether it is stronger or not would be:
Best Visual Effects – it should also get that. It’s on the shortlist.
Best Make-Up and Hair Style – it’s on the shortlist also.
So that makes 9. And the two I’m also predicting:
Best Production Design – it got the ADG nod today
Best Supporting Actor – I think that Hardy will show up at BAFTA.
That makes 11 and would be the lead in terms of Oscar Nods. I don’t think that it will get Best Adapted Screenplay but if it gets that too – then it would be REALLY strong.
Last but not least – it’s the ONLY movie left that has the question mark of the Box Office – will it be a strike or a bust? Depending on that, we’ll find out really where it lies. But it’s a top 5 EASY at the very least!
It’s doing well in limited release, am I wrong?
From Variety: “The Revenant,” directed by Alejando G. Inarritu, has grossed $1.4 million from its four locations since its Christmas Day opening. Fox is expanding “The Revenant” from four locations to 3,371 on Friday (Jan. 8) with early expectations of an opening in the $20 million range.
Steve Jobs did great in limited release too, didn’t it?
Yup, and ”Steve Jobs” bombed when it went wide. Let’s see what happens to ”Revenant” …
Revenant has also leaked and Revenant will probably also soak up some of Joy’s BO.
The 1st six categories that you picked are the same ones that the H’wood Reporter’s Feinberg is predicting.
The GoldDerby pundits are predicting 8 Oscar bids, adding Film Editing and Makeup. Makeup is not an obvious one, but if you consider the ”wounds” that DiCarpio sustains in the bear attack, it’s a worthy contender. That scene also might be key to whether it gets visual effects. That’s a tough category, especially competing against flashier stuff in sci-fi-fantasy and space epics (i.e., ”The Martian,” ”Star Wars,” ”Mad Max”). And I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Hardy pulls a Jonah Hill: that is, like Hill, he didn’t get a SAG or Globe nomination (or win any precursors), but gets in as DiCaprio’s co-star in a Best Pic nominee. (It’s also possible that Hardy scores a double nomination at BAFTA: for ”The Revenant” and ”Legend.”)
Makeup, VFX, Hardy, are not happening for Revenant. Adapted screenplay for Revenant would be a pretty funny joke, since it’s impossible to understand either Hardy or DiCaprio.
I agree that screenplay isn’t happening; it hasn’t shown up anywhere else (so far). But as long as ”Revenant” is on the shortlist for makeup & visual effects, anything can still happen.
Ugh, guess I’ll have to take comfort in Inside Outs chances in the animated category. I really wanted it to get a BP nom.
Same here.
It sucks!
So do you!
Lol. Good one. What else ya got?
I was simply showing how stupid you sounded with your ‘It sucks!’ remark. I made my case. You’re an idiot.
Ummm ok. I was saying it sucks that Inside Outs chances at a BP nom were slim to none. How bout you leave me be, I’m not about argue with you over something petty. Goodbye.
“The Oscars and PGA are filling out their ballots at the same time. That means their momentum shifts are likely going to be similar.” This is extremely important to remember.
As much as I liked Spotlight I find The Big Short to be the more entertaining film. Whoever said TBS is confusing must not be too smart. I found it easy to follow and appreciated the breakdown of those Wall Street terms. I was furious by that films end and also fearful. Spotlight had me reflecting on the strength of journalism. Sure it angered me, but I appreciated what the Spotlight team did and saw it as a triumph but TBS had a more profound effect on me. Just one persons opinion. I think The Big Short is pulling a Million Dollar Baby this year. We shall see…
My (realistic) Oscar rooting for Best Picture preferences
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Martian
6. Straight Outta Compton
7. Room
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Brooklyn
10. Inside Out (more realistic chance than The Force Awakens).
No Revenant and you claim it’s realistic?
Mine would look a little like this…
1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Martian
5. Carol
6. Ex- Machina
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. Bridge of Spies
9. Brooklyn
10. Inside Out alt. Sicario
I agree on IO’s chances being better than SW:TFA. If I had more confidence in it id list at #1 but I’m taking my heart out of this one. You got to. Lol
Recently saw The Revenant – it was honestly the most confusing and violent movie I’ve ever seen! Lots of random bow and arrows being flung at the screen, Native Americans talking in foreign tongues, Leonardo DiCaprio grunting and laying on a stretcher 90% of the time! He literally is winning an Oscar this year for snoozing on screen. And that ending! I seriously had no idea what the hell was going on.
This year is totally bonkers!
What’s confusing about the ending? No spoiler but it’s clear what happens.
The attempts to be “meaningful” are flat out ridiculous. Laughable.
Yeah you know, there were tons of us in the comments section here who never stopped supporting SICARIO and tons of us who always backed STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON. I’m not saying that means anything with these later “surprises”. You pundit guys could still be right. But both films were released to the people, you know actual ticket buyers, months ago and those people who paid to see those films were pleased as punch with what they got for their hard earned cash. In fact I bought SICARIO today at my local Walmart. While there I saw that it was in the redbox. When I got home I accidentally hit the wrong button on my remote and the On Demand screen came up trying to get be to buy… wait for it… SICARIO. When I was doing laundry the other day GLADIATOR was on in the laundromat (A&E) when I got home I saw that EXODUS: GODS AND KINGS was all over cable.
The Oscar race is now. Check your late night shows. Watch Matt Damon campaign with dance movies. Stallone was on Fallon last night. Michael Shannon and your homegirl Kristen Stewart are on tonight. SLJ is on everywhere. QT is on Conan. It’s on. It’s on like Donkey Kong. With ballots out, now is what matters, not what the pundits have been saying up until now. Everyone go to your corners. *fistbumps* Good luck.
Who is SLJ?? Confusing when people right shorthand. Just name the damn person you’re talking about! I’m poor so I only see movies when someone takes me. Recently saw The Revenant – it was honestly the most confusing and violent movie I’ve ever seen! Lots of random bow and arrows being flung at the screen, Native Americans talking in foreign tongues, Leonardo DiCaprio grunting and laying on a stretcher 90% of the time! He literally is winning an Oscar this year for snoozing on screen. And that ending! I seriously have no idea what the hell was going on.
Samuel L. Jackson
Do you have anything else to say other than The Revenant was terrible? It’s like your copying and pasting the same quote.
Not that I’ve been vocal either way because I haven’t seen either, but I’ll give you that, Antoinette. You’ve talked about Sicario and especially Straight Outta Compton more than anybody. Cheers!
“The only thing The Big Short has going against it is that it wasn’t released at Telluride or Toronto or Cannes.”
My (most recent) argument against that:
I had an idea about The Big Short’s BD nomination chances and I checked it out, and it turns out I was pretty much right in my assumptions. Since 2008, no movie has been nominated for both the DGA and the Oscar for Best Director despite not being nominated for that award at either the Golden Globes, BFCA Awards or Satellite Awards (which is the case with The Big Short). Also, since 2003, when the BFCA first had at least 5 nominees for Best Director, the only movies to do so were There Will Be Blood and Michael Clayton, in the same year. Therefore, it’s quite likely (though, of course, far from guaranteed) that The Big Short will miss either the DGA or Oscar nomination for Best Director (or both), either of which would be a MAJOR misstep (to me, equal to or worse than Spotlight’s Eddie snub).
Also, of the movies that did get ONE of those nominations (DGA/Oscar for BD) without having had any success in the same category with any of the other 3 (GG, BFCA, Satellite), about 60-70% (depends if you add the movie year 2002 as well, which wouldn’t be wrong) get the Oscar nomination, not the DGA nomination. Therefore, it’s about twice as likely The Big Short will be nominated for the Oscar and not the DGA, than the other way around, if it only gets one of them.
No movie except Driving Miss Daisy has won the Oscar for BP without the DGA nomination since the early 1950s (so, for more than 60 years). No movie except Driving Miss Daisy and Argo has won BP without the Oscar nomination for Best Director since the early 1930s (so for at least 80 years). That’s about a 98.4% success rate for the DGA nomination stat and 97.6% for the BD Oscar nomination stat, both of which are AT LEAST as impressive as the Eddie nomination stat’s percentage, no matter how you choose to calculate it.
Of course, if The Big Short DOES get both those nomination, then it’s a big threat, and potentially the favorite (though still not a huge one) for BP. But, unless/until that happens, because of how unlikely it looks right now, looking at the stats (and because it already has the other stats issues I keep mentioning – the BD snubs at the GGs and BFCA, and the lack of a mention on Peter Travers’ list), I would say it is, in fact, wrong to dub it the favorite over Spotlight (strictly statistically speaking, of course), based on the Eddie nomination stat alone.
I still say Spotlight is the slight favorite based on empirical stats, but if Big Short reaps those DGA and Director Oscar nominations, it would threaten the stats big time.
We agree once more… 🙂
In fact, if McKay wins the Oscar for directing, he’d be destroying a 60 year old precedent.
Which is why I don’t see it happening. But The Big Short, like Spotlight, does have the split scenario… so it’s still potentially valid as a BP winner – barely.
However, I must point out (even though it’s would be a Joe Namath/Eli Manning style upset), McKay did get a Golden Globe screenplay nod. That does not change the facts though.
I think he’s a more probable winner at the Adapted Screenplay category,
I think The Big Short is the favorite for Adapted, for sure. Makes way more sense to me than the stuff people were expecting to win that category before The Big Short became a thing… (Steve Jobs is the only other winner that makes sense to me there, but that seems unlikely now.)
Oops..actually it was George Roy Hill for 1973’s The Sting for last time a Best Director Oscar winner had no Golden Globe nomination.
40+ years is good enough for me…
Apparently Polanski for The Pianist as well…
Oops, sorry. But thanks. I like it that I can have somebody to talk to this CRAZY awards season. 🙂
🙂 Me too, obviously!
Nevertheless, McKay will still have to do a hat trick for the win.
Of course – I completely agree. He’s highly unlikely to win.
Of course, we should remember HFPA members can’t vote for Oscars, but guild members can. And “Jedi mind tricks” concocted by the guilds CAN (but not always) work.
Of course. 🙂
Yeah, it’s definitely the favorite.
I wish Fassy would win, but unless he pulls a McConaughey, it’s Leo to lose.
I really liked Fassbender, but I really liked Leo too… But, if it were up to me, I’d give it to Attah. The only problem is he doesn’t get to speak too much – but, then, neither does Leo. And he (Attah) definitely makes it count when he does.
Not to mention that Attah is either 14 or 15 years old. They have not nominated a boy that young in Lead Actor since the 30’s. (Correct me if I’m wrong)
No, of course he WON’T be nominated. I just think he SHOULD be, and should win. 🙂
You are correct. Jackie Cooper (age 9) was the last boy who got a Best Actor nomination (1930-31) for ”Skippy.” If Abraham Attah or Jacob Tremblay make the cut, they’ll have broken an 84-year-old record. Oscar voters (read: older white men) rarely vote for boys, but they’ll vote for girls. Since 2000, two girls have been up for Best Actress: Keisha Castle-Hughes (”The Whale Rider”) and Quvenzhane Wallis (”Beasts of the Southern Wild”).
Justin Henry got a nom at age 8 in 1980, but that was for SUPPORTING. Boys can’t crack the Lead acting category since four generations ago.
As you say, that was for Supporting. But it’s rare for boys to crack that category, too. The last boy to get nominated there was Haley Joel Osment (”The Sixth Sense,” 1999). By contrast, in the past decade, THREE girls have been up for Supporting Actress: Abigail Breslin, Saoirse Ronan and Hallie Steinfeld. And there are girls who have won: Anna Paquin, Tatum O’Neal and Patty Duke. However, no boys (under 18) have ever won Supporting Actor.
Not to make things political, but I guess it’s ageism (for females) and reverse ageism (for males). Just an observation.
It’s totally attributable to the tastes of the Oscar voters (76% male and average age: 63), who prefer pretty young things, and how girls and women are cast in the movies.
Carol was my favorite movie of last year. I will be absolutely floored if it didn’t make it in. I don’t see what was so special about sicario. I’ve had a feeling for a while ex machina was going to make it. I still think it will. Also when are you all doing top ten movies of 2015 listing for everyone..and where the hell is the golden globe contest. .did it close. ..I can’t find anything anymore lol
Carol isn’t getting nominated for Best Picture, in my eyes, because the movie wasn’t engaging. I had such high hopes for it, but it seemed like Far from Heaven (2002) rebooted- and even that film was superior. Carol has a good performance from Cate Blanchett and a wooden one from Mara. The screenplay is not that interesting, and I felt I was watching redundant material. I like stories I can follow and care about. Carol wasn’t it for me. I think it still gets acting nods, but not picture, director or screenplay. Far from Heaven had superior Costume Design and Art Direction, and was left off the Oscar shortlist. Carol currently missed the Art Director’s Guild, and might with Costumes too.
Room also left me feeling a little cold, albeit I liked it better then Carol. Both are female driven stories- but which heroine film is the one the PGA went for? The one that provided the most inspiration and also passion: Brooklyn. Of the three female-centered dramas, I liked Brooklyn the best. And I felt myself lighting up as I watched it. It tugs at heartstrings that Carol and Room don’t provide. Sometimes, that’s what voters want.
My current Best Picture predictions – there will be 9 nominees
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Revenant
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Brooklyn
8. Straight Outta Compton
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I understand TFA is a longshot, but I see it getting in over Ex Machina. The PGA never lines up 100% with the Oscars. I think Carol or Room could slip in that 10th spot if there is one- but I’m not betting on it. Sicario may feel politically important, but it hasn’t really shown up anywhere else. I think it misses.
If Star Wars couldn’t get in with the Producers Guild (i.e. the group that most values financial success and more readily nominates franchise blockbusters), then how is it going to get in with the Academy?
I suppose the argument has to be based on momentum at this point. PGA ballots opened Dec. 8, before SWTFA had screened or become a box office phenom. Potentially, the later Oscar nominations period could see the film surge.
Not that I’d expect this to happen, but that’s the case to be made.
“I suppose the argument has to be based on momentum at this point. PGA ballots opened Dec. 8”
Exactly what I think is its last chance as well. Help me, Oscar Ballot Deadline, you’re my only hope!…
You are right about Carol except for performances. Mara is much better than Blanchett who’s pure mannerism just like Redmayne in Danish Girl.
“Mara is much better than Blanchett who’s pure mannerism”
Well said! I much prefer Mara in that one as well.
I like Blanchett’s performance but, yeah, Mara is definitely the MVP there.
I was touched by Therese and annoyed by Carol.
Sicario has shown up on A LOT of top 10 lists, including BFCA. But I hope you’re right and I’m wrong, and The Force Awakens does get in!…
(Carol’s) “screenplay is not that interesting, and I felt I was watching redundant material.”
I agree. Another reason I’m not in love with it. I did like it a whole lot more than Room, though. But, yeah, Brooklyn is easily the best of the three for me, as well.
What do you think about Vikander this year? Is she getting a lead or supporting nod, and for which film? I’m all over the place and tearing my hair out trying to decide.
Literally no idea… I’m racking my brain just to come up with a plausible lineup of 9 for BP – if I were to go into the acting races as well, I’d go insane for sure! 🙂
Hi there and Bună ziua,-:) Yeap, you’re right with “SICARIO”.
I’m actually watching the movie together with an active member of the Academy’s Director branch.
It reminds me lot of “Zero Dark Thirty”. Any other news for me – Claudiu ? Cheers!
Comparisons with Traffic (the obvious one) and No Country for Old Men that I’ve heard are also very apt…
Nothing new to report. 🙂 Cheers!
Rooney Mara was briliant. She expressed her inner turmoil that has touched many people.
The Oscars are going off the virtual cliff, and the unfathomable PGA results (fucking Sicario over The Force Awakens? Are you fucking kidding me???) grease the skids for a nomination morning that will be nothing short of hideous.
Yes. Sicario over The Force Awakens. Love it
I told you not to count your chickens before they hatch!
Bitch, please. Yes SICARIO over THE FORCE AWAKENS. There was nothing wrong with JV Star Wars but it’s not that great. I could tear it to shreds, but it’s not even bad so I won’t. There’s much bigger poodoo out there that’s hogging up Oscar territory.
I find it so disheartening that Brooklyn, Carol and Room are fighting for the final few spots for best picture. At the beginning of the awards season, I thought all three were locks, or at least two of them. Now I’m hoping that at least one of them makes it in or else it’ll be like last year with Gone Girl, Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher.
Sicario is also the most underrated movie all season long. It’s made the NBR, tons of top ten lists, the BFCA, the Eddies and now the PGA yet it keeps on being ignored as a potential best picture nominee. I think it’s fighting for the final few spots and it’s in the same level as Compton and Bridge of Spies.
And they are also three of the best films of the year that SHOULDN’T be fighting for spots. They should’ve been secured.
Getting to the point now where I’m almost ready to just give this shit up. If Carol keeps getting kicked down like this, I might just quit paying attention to the awards race for good. It’s a shitty feeling, seeing a film you love so much take such a dramatic fall. I put way too much into this thing, given that it almost always ends up disappointing me.
Last year was a CRASH > BROKEBACK level of disappointment, so I feel like I’m already immune…
… but I know the feeling!
If I’d been following the race that year more closely than I was (it was only my second year showing any interest), that might have convinced me to quit.
For what ? Boyhood?
Ten years later, did the homophobic crowd at AMPAS staged another coup?
CAROL has a worse sin than being pro-gay. It’s intelligent.
BROOKLYN is clearly “CAROL FOR DUMMIES.” All of the dumb pitfalls that irk me about BROOKLYN are evaded so elegantly in CAROL, yet BROOKLYN is the film bound to appeal to less sophisticated viewers (i.e. Academy voters).
Two very different films.
Very
I honestly don’t know if my favorite movie has ever won Best Pic in a given year…yet I keep coming back.
2000: Magnolia and The Insider were my favorites (American Beauty won)
2001: Requiem for a Dream (Gladiator)
2002: Gosford Park (A Beautiful Mind)
2003: Road to Perdition (Chicago)
2004: In America (Lord of the Rings)
2005: Collateral (Million Dollar Baby)
2006: Munich (Crash)
2007: The Prestige (The Departed…loved it)
2008: Michael Clayton (No Country For Old Men…loved it)
2009: Doubt (Slumdog Millionaire)
2010: Inglorious Basterds (The Hurt Locker)
2011: The Social Network and Winter’s Bone (The King’s Speech)
2012: The Descendants (The Artist)
2013: Amour (Argo)
2014: Inside Llewyn Davis (12 Years a Slave)
2015: Grand Budapest Hotel (Birdman)
My favourite film of the year hasn’t won since 1984, but I keep coming back too. Just that if this turns into a collective industry-wide snub, it’ll be completely crushing.
The last time my favourite film won the BP Oscar was Annie Hall. Welcome to the bunker, guys.
Only twice in Academy history has this happened for me (THE DEER HUNTER and CASABLANCA).
Worse yet, they almost never pick what I feel is the best of the nominated movies. The last time this happened in my book was with DANCES WITH WOLVES (which is a much-derided Academy choice… go figure!).
NO COUNTRY, UNFORGIVEN, THE GODFATHER, and there might be one or two other cases for me.
Incredible to find Road to Perdition and In America here, also my choices, and I bet you won’t find anyone else picking those two.
I swear to you, I sat in the theater and during the film thinking “Well that’s it. That’s your BP for this year right there.” Not that it was my favorite but in the moment I thought for sure that ROAD TO PERDITION was a given.
But they bottled it.
ROAD TO PERDITION is on my top 5 from that year.
To me, there are four times since 2001 that the Academy picked the best film from the nominees: Million Dollar Baby, Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, 12 Years a Slave. That is it, although some of the other winners were usually my second or third favorite.
yeah my favorite movie never wins but it’s not about that to me. I just know I have a different taste than the Academy.
As you may know, my favorite has won for two years in a row now. That hadn’t been the case for at least 4-5 years before that, though.
There are usually somewhere between 4-7 movies per year that cross my personal threshold as “a good choice as Best Picture.” As long as one of those films actually wins, I don’t mind if my personal top choice isn’t the pick.
The Academy and I have been in pretty good sync for the last decade (since 2006), as only Argo and King’s Speech have fallen outside my personal comfort zone among winners. Even those two weren’t bad, I just thought there were far too many other superior choices. In my view, the Academy hasn’t made a poor choice since Crash.
You sound unhinged. It’s just a movie not some attack on the LGBT community.
And you sound like a wanker. What’s it your business anyway? It makes me emotional, so you tell me I sound unhinged? What do you gain from that?
I’m a movie lover who spends a lot of time covering the awards race. This brings me a lot of joy and excitement, so when something happens that legitimately feels, to me, like a snub of one of my favourite movies of the year, and a snub of one of the year’s most LGBT+ positive works of art, it gets me down. I have clinical depression, ofc it’s gonna sting. But thanks a fucking million for calling me unhinged, it’s rly helped so much.
Paddy, I hope I have the right person, but the other day, I suggested that the Academy rolls should be limited to people who’ve had a screen credit in the past 20 years. And you thought it should go further: 10 years. Scott Feinberg of the Hollywood Reporter just offered 5 ways to improve the Oscarcast, and one of them is withholding voting privileges from people who haven’t work on a film ”in, say, the past 10 years.”
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-5-ways-academy-can-851595
lol u do have the right person, that’s funny that he and I both had the exact same idea! ty!
Solid for BP:
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short
Maybe:
Brooklyn
Room
Star Wars
Inside Out
Carol
Bridge of Spies
Longshots:
Sicario
Beasts of No Nation
Straight Outta Compton
Creed
Son of Saul
Joy
why is Compton, with a PGA and SAG ensemble, after a year of Academy getting killed on the diversity/#OscarSoWhite tip, a longshot?
Because it needs to be listed first on a lot of ballots, the AMPAS will likely not nominate 10 films , and I don’t hear many people saying it is their favorite film of the year. And it’s not “Selma” like Oscar bait. But hey, I may know nothing.
Compton is maybe to solid and inside out shouldn’t even be listed
Inside Out is very well liked and Pixar has gotten BP noms before. Compton even close to solid? I doubt it.
Compton has SAG/PGA like the two front runners. Inside out has? um…
INSIDE OUT got a PGA nomination… just in Animated. Obviously you can’t hold a lack of a SAG nomination against it.
“That’s understandable enough, considering that a big part of the way producers measure the performance of a movie is its bottom line. But what it means is that Tuesday’s nominations should not be interpreted as a best picture Oscar death-knell for the likes of art house fare such as Carol, Room, Bleecker Street’s Trumbo, Netflix’s Beasts of No Nation, Fox Searchlight’s Youth and Focus Features’ The Danish Girl. In my view, one or more of them still could bump out one or two of studio-made, commercially successful but highly divisive PGA nominees — perhaps Mad Max: Fury Road or Straight Outta Compton. (While most think the former is a safer bet, I’m not so sure.)”
This is from the THR dude who gets everything right nominations wise or something.
I see Straight Outta Compton being left out before Mad Max. I mean, Mad Max will have below the line support as well as (most likely) support from the directors branch, but what else is Straight Outta Compton going to be nominated for? It would be odd if it was only nominated for Best Picture and nothing else. That hasn’t happened since the ’30s or ’40s, to the best of my knowledge.
Agreed. I also don’t see many people putting Straight Outta Compton at #1 on their ballots, which is what a film needs to be nominated. MMFR, on the other hand, will have broad guild support, as you mentioned, and it will have numerous members listing it #1 on their ballots.
“what else is Straight Outta Compton going to be nominated for? It would be odd if it was only nominated for Best Picture and nothing else.” That’s what troubles me as well… Still, it’s quite rare for a movie to make SAG Ensemble and the PGA list and not get in, so the stats favor it, in that respect, at least.
I don’t think Scott Feinberg likes Mad Max very much!
Feinberg is a moron and has been pretty off on his predictions for the last few years. He stanned for Saving Mr.Banks so much and has stanned for Starwars this year + Him and Pete Hammond have been so pressed about Mad Max getting recognition because they can’t look past their nose and see greatness in a non-oscar-bait. Anne Thompson is the only person whose predictions actually matter.
Well, I’ve actually heard Hammond praise Mad Max a few times, even though he kept It out of his 2015 top ten. But I honestly do believe Feinberg does not like mad max at all. No matter how much praise and how many awards It collects, he still refuses to give it a shot past the tech awards. Not even George Miller, George FREAKING Miller! But then he goes and writes an editorial about how The Hateful Eight can still get a best picture nom, which would be fine (after all It is Quentin FREAKING Tarantino) except when you read his top ten list and realize that The Hateful Eight is number 2! I mean pundits say It all the time that their personal feelings towards a movie don’t impact their predictions or the way they see the race but that’s a load of crap.
I do think he has to have some vendetta against it. Like his twitter does not have even a mention of Mad Max from the NBR Gala yesterday. It won the best film like whaat ??
Locksfor BP
Spotlight
The Martian
Big Short
Maybe:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Revenant
Brooklyn
Sicario
Room
MMFR
Man, ‘Carol’ getting snubbed is a real surprise. It would be absurd if it’s also snubbed in the Best Picture race, yet I still have to favour it for a nomination since I’d find it harder to imagine the Academy nominating something like Ex Machina or even Sicario in its place.
Spotlight and Big Short are BP locks. Martian, Mad Max, Revenant and Bridge Of Spies seem to have four more slots pretty much locked up. My money’s still on a nine-film year with Carol, Brooklyn and Star Wars getting the last three spots.
I Understand that Mad Max didn’t receive a nomination the SAG Cast Ensemble, But can’t we give it props for receiving the nomination for the SAG Stunt Ensemble especially for a film like that?
Maybe that is a loophole….
I repeat – no BP winner has ever been nominated for SAG Stunt Ensemble.
Because the previous BP winners had a lot of stunts. The stunts in King’s Speech ?? AMAZING!
Exactly – they didn’t. Because they don’t like stunts/action movies. We know that. That’s the causality.
Job well done to the stunt team, I hope they win. They certainly deserve it. But being nominated for that award makes no difference in whether or not the film gets a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.
Why nobody think Sicario has a shot at BP nom? At least before PGA noms nobody did. ZDT wasnt much better and got in
Almost everyone does now? Specially if it can score something tomorrow?
For the nomination or for the win?
If you’re talking for the win, it’s because it received no SAG noms… not even for the Ensemble in what is clearly an Ensemble piece.
It clearly has a shot for a nomination.
Momentum for Sicario has been scarce before the guilds started announcing. We’ll see. It seems like the industry really liked it.
My picks
01. “Spotlight”
02. “The Big Short”
03. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
04. “The Martian”
05. “The Revenant”
06. “Bridge of Spies”
07. “Brooklyn”
08. “Room”
09. “Straight Outta Compton”
10. “Inside Out”
—
11. “Sicario”
12. “Carol”
13. “The Hateful Eight”
14. “Beasts of No Nation”
15. “Trumbo”
16. “Star Wars: Force Awakens”
I think Carol is pretty much out. Its not film for Academy, male driven bunch. shame
Harvey got PHILOMENA in. He should be able to get this in.
But yeah, it’s not likely to win much at all.
Harvey’s not even trying. Philomena was an outside contender. Carol was a potential winner a few weeks ago. He’s dropped the ball and it’s fucking shameful.
rn his attentions are far more focused on The Hateful Eight, a film that doesn’t need his backing, not even nearly.
Carol’s not out.
Once again films aimed at/having a majority cast of women and people of color, of which there was a bonanza this year, look to be sparring over the one token slot for each. Carol, Brooklyn and Room are “women’s films” and we look to be getting only one of them; Straight Outta Compton seems to have pushed aside Beasts and Creed. It’s good that contenders for the action!slots have strong lead women (TFA, MMFR, Sicario) but those are still genres targeted toward men. The only hope is that the actor-dominated AMPAS has far more women voting than the very male Producers Guild.
PGA membership is roughly 50% female.
It’s more diverse than the Academy membership.
Then things are looking even more bleak!
1. If Revenant ends up with the most nominations or tied for the most, does it leapfrog everyone to become the frontrunner. It would have the “Leo’s due” as well as “Inarritu two in a row” narratives working in its favor.
2. If McKay ends up on DGA, will Big Short Argo it’s way to BP?
3. I get the idea of Scott as the “he’s due” winner, but do you really see Martian winning ANY of the techs over Max and/or Revenant?
4. Carol is dead, Spotlight is no longer the frontrunner.
Only way Revenant wins is if it’s a split. I don’t see them giving it to Inarritu two years in a row…but give director to Miller or Scott and picture to Revenant? Maybe…but I still don’t even see that happening.
Then you could have the really bizarre spectacle of Adam McKay beating Inarritu/Miller/Scott.
Ridley wants it, he and Damon are working for it, and it’s going to happen.
No director without a GG nomination has won BD for over 40 years, apparently…
Update: OK, I checked – there IS one (Polanski – The Pianist). Still didn’t win BP as well, though…
1. Ridley Scott is on top for director. The only place Revenant is favored is for actor, and it would shock me if it wins even that. Last thing people want is to hear another whiney sermon about how hard Leo’s life is. And the idea of Inarritu winning two in a row is a mark against it.
2. Big Short will only have 4 noms. It’s not winning best picture.
3. Ridley is favored, but the The Martian is likely to have LOTS of nominations, which is really what creates the steam. Scott Feinberg says 8, including the prestige noms of picture, actor, director, adapted screenplay. Tech noms, too. Other than cinematography, Revenant isn’t a favorite for many tech noms. Maybe sound, but just maybe. Star Wars might compete in tech categories.
Big Short with 4 noms? I have it getting at least 6: Picture, Director, Bale, Carell, maybe Editing, Screenplay.
I think Picture, Actor, Adapted screenplay, Film Editing. But I wouldn’t place it as a likely winner in any of those.
“1. If Revenant ends up with the most nominations or tied for the most, does it leapfrog everyone to become the frontrunner” – no.
“2. If McKay ends up on DGA, will Big Short Argo it’s way to BP?” – no.
“4. Carol is dead, Spotlight is no longer the frontrunner.” – no to both.
Saw Big Short again last night. I got a lot more from it then from first viewing. It’s got that kinetic chaotic quality like Birdman. McKay filmed it almost like a documentary at times. It’s such a dense film yet it’s so funny. It’s got the star power yet it sets its sights right into the heart of America. I think it could go all the way.
It really is depressing. I mentioned to Sasha a month or two ago that three female-driven movies (really four if you count Inside Out) ain’t happening when many were predicting all three to be nominated. I don’t love ROOM but I can see why people do and how it should be a nominee. But here we are and honestly NONE of the three are slam dunks for a nom. Sad
all hope lies in Mad Max
Of the solid 5, Mad Max: Fury Road is by far the best film.
Having 5 slots instead of 10 shouldn’t make that much difference for the Oscar nominees, should it? Consider that the 1st place vote is what really counts on a majority of ballots (they’re sorted by 1st place film and only the lowest vote getters are resorted-once?-into 2nd or 3rd placed films, depending on what titles are left) the other 4 films listed will hardly matter. What difference would it make if they listed 10?
In the simulations I’ve done of the Best Picture nomination process (using Top 10 lists from critics and bloggers), a percentage of ballots do get thrown out if the votes cannot be transferred to other films. This percentage is pretty small (2-3%) but given that all a film needs for a nomination is 5% of votes, those spoiled ballots may very well end up being the difference between getting in and getting shut out.
I’m starting to believe that Sicario has a real shot at a BP nom. WGA will confirm or deny this belief tomorrow. Though it didn’t get any SAG noms, it is technically impressive and has broad support from the guilds. I think it has a shot at Cinematography, Editing, Original Screenplay, Score, maybe a surprise Supporting Actor, and maybe Sound Mixing. It’s coming on strong at the right time. Let’s hope this dark horse makes a late break for a Best Picture nomination. It certainly deserves it; best film of 2015 as far as I’m concerned.
agreed
It’s probably in. I assumed it was a fringe contender all along, even when people on here were pronouncing it dead. It’s done well at the box office. It has solid techs across the board. It’s timely.
Perhaps even more than a BP threat, we have to consider it in Editing, Cinematography, Score and Sound Mixing, where it’s starting to seem downright likely.
In what seemed like a hopeful year for women in stories driven by women the same old shit creeps back up. If a film as perfect as Carol, which also showcases women and their stories, and is quite successful (3rd highest opening of the year when adjusted for screen average) starts getting snubbed at crunch time, shit will never change. I look for Broseph and his Amazing Technicolor Sausage Fest, aka The Big Short to take it all out of nowhere b/c the women just got a little to close to having something and must be subdued once again.
Best Actress is so confusing now. Room has more support at Globes (Picture) and SAGs (Tremblay) but now it’s left off the PGA and Brooklyn is in. I was always surprised Brooklyn wasn’t a big player.
I keep thinking that Brooklyn might be more of an AMPAS type film than Room/Carol.
Since Nick Hornby isn’t eligible for WGA, we won’t really be able to predict how well Brooklyn is tracking until final nominations.
Hornby is eligible; nominated last year for ”Wild”!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Writers_Guild_of_America_Award_for_Best_Adapted_Screenplay
It isn’t about the writer, it’s about the production. Brooklyn wasn’t eligible. http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/wga-awards-brooklyn-hateful-eight-room-not-eligible-1201652192/
I don’t get all the Sicario love. I liked it, but completely forgot it after one day. I don’t understand why people are passionate about it.
can’t everyone say that about any movie? it basically comes down to personal taste. not that difficult.
Of course. That’s why I need someone of the Sicario supporters to explain me what I didn’t see.
Hello Dearest Philipp. For many years now I’ve been keeping lists of the movies I’ve seen all year in backwards order from the beginning of the year. For instance as soon as I see 3 movies from 2016, I’ll start a new list. I keep updating it all year so I know exactly where movies should be when I make my year end list. Instead of trying to remember in December, I plug them in the appropriate place as I see them. I haven’t updated it since this past weekend when I saw Joy and TFA and I’m just a regular person with bad grammar and spelling mistakes, but I think it keeps me honest so that I don’t get caught up in Oscar hype. It’s here if you’re interested. http://starshine-3.livejournal.com/137095.html That’s the last version I put up. SICARIO has remained my favorite since I first saw it.
That’s me, but with Mad Max.
That’s me but with Spotlight. Thought it was good, but came away thinking ‘THAT is supposedly the best picture winner and frontrunner?…hmm.’
That’s the thing though, those of us who do love it are passionate about it.
Does PGA use the preferential ballot for their nominees or just their winners?
Both, although PGA has 10 guaranteed nominees as opposed to the 5-10 for Oscar.
Sasha, can you promote Mad Max Fury Road and Charlize Theron for once?
She did already. in October i think.
are you kidding?
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/05/14/mad-max-fury-road-when-you-aint-got-nothing-you-got-nothing-to-lose/
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/10/25/the-case-for-mad-max-fury-road-the-film-that-saved-hollywood-from-itself/
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/09/17/women-of-all-ages-in-the-conversation/
Sasha, from here on out, I’m gonna need your daily condemnation of the sexist, anti-LGBT, anti-sequel, anti-blockbuster industry. These nominees are not right and not okay.
“Anti-sequel”
Mad Max: Fury Road
“Anti-Blockbuster”
The Martian, Straight Outta Compton, and the aforementioned Mad Max: Fury Road
“Sexist, anti-LGBT”
Eh, no arguments here. But try not to act like the other two are on even remotely the same level as these two.
I know but I was saying it for the sake of Star Wars. Frankly it’s crazy that ANY of these contenders is doing as well as it is, except maybe Martian at this point. I would still not be surprised to see Max snubbed knowing the Academy.
For once i want to see these articles with a Mad max cover pic. Why so much love for Big Short ?!
Me too, Sasha seems to love The Big Short to much.
She will be right when it wins BP but yunnow spread the wealth. Lemme see the wives lovely faces or something.
I’ve noticed it too. Everytime I check AD there always seems to be a pic of Bale from this movie.
Wouldn’t it be weird if Big Short took over from here on out and got picture/director? I know that I put McKay and Carell in my predicted five for Oscar—DGA may go with Spielberg.
McKay winning director ?
I still can’t see McKay getting in, though it looks like an increasing possibility. Wow.
Remember, don’t they show the names of the films, not the names of the directors, on the ballot? Isn’t it like that for all the categories except actors? I thought that was part of the reason why people kept being snubbed over and over. (thinking Deakins)
That’s in the second round. First round I think they show the names (it could probably explain why the same people get nominated so often).
Oh, thank you for clarifying that. I didn’t know.
Mckay is not winning Director. The producer of The Big Short are the same that won for 12 Years a Slave two years ago, do you guys think they are giving them a second Oscar so fast?
I still think its bizarre that Star Wars didnt get in.
As for Carol, well, I loved it. But it may just be too austere for the consensus vote.
As for the rest, trying to figure out which is/are the “Nightcrawler” — Ex Machina, Sicario, or Compton.
I think Ex Machina.