On December 30, we did our official DGA preview with charts and whatnot that you can see here. I thought we should revisit the subject since Alejandro G. Iñarritu beat the competition last night at the Golden Globes. Does it change anything? The key to The Revenant’s win last night and the thing to remember is that the HFPA did not award Iñarritu for Birdman last year except for screenplay. They were the first to anoint him and welcome him into the Oscar race in 2006 (back when the Globes really did have an impact on nominations) with Babel. But he only won Best Picture then, not Director. He next won Screenplay, but not Director or Picture for Birdman. With The Revenant, it was their chance to go “full Iñarritu.” That’s something the industry already did last year. If the Globes had awarded Birdman and then The Revenant back-to-back, that would make me sit upright in my seat. As it is, their picking The Revenant isn’t so out of the realm of believability and doesn’t really shift the race that much except in one significant way. If we are really heading into a split year — which I still don’t think we are, but it’s possible — the mismatch recipient of Best Director hasn’t yet been decided. Maybe George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, maybe Ridley Scott for The Martian. Maybe Todd Haynes for Carol. No one has been thinking Iñarritu as a stand-alone Best Director winner.
If a split were to happen, it will be an easy call to make because one will likely win the Producers Guild and one will win the Directors Guild. For instance, Spotlight could win the PGA — a popular film, well-liked across the board. The Revenant and Iñarritu could win at the Directors Guild for his high achievement, his level of difficulty, like Oliver Stone who won for Born on the Fourth of July the year Driving Miss Daisy curiously won Best Picture repeatedly in precursors and then received no directing nomination at all at the Oscars. That’s one way this could play out.
I still don’t think we can discount the things we know for sure about this race, the things we always throw out when it all starts to look crazy and unpredictable, but things which we can rely on year after year. One of those things is the SAG Awards Ensemble nomination, which matters, Mr. Crawford. It matters. The other thing we can look to is how the DGA shakes out tomorrow. We know Alejandro G. Iñarritu will be on that list. But what of the others?
Herewith, our DGA Preview and Predictions Contest.
Scenario A – DGA members like Bridge of Spies as much as the BAFTA did:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
In that scenario, Spotlight could still theoretically follow the Driving Miss Daisy path by winning Best Picture without a need for a DGA or Oscar nod for directing.
Scenario B – The dreams of The Big Short winning Best Picture wither, possibly die:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
George Miller, Mad Max
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
With The Big Short ostensibly crippled, out of the way, it becomes Spotlight’s to lose (because it has the SAG Awards Ensemble nomination and none of the others do).
Scenario C – A shocker pops up to throw things off:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
In this scenario, there is no Spielberg because these 14,000 members didn’t like Bridge of Spies as much as they liked Star Wars. There are a lot of voters here. This will be the single biggest number of voters by any group since the awards season began. The Force Awakens knocked Spotlight out of the ACE Eddie nominations. What did get in for Eddie? Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Big Short, The Revenant, The Force Awakens, and Sicario.
Scenario D – Todd Haynes makes an historic leap into the DGA:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Todd Haynes, Carol
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Going by the ACE, which is the second biggest group to vote since the season started, I’m going to predict the DGA to be:
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alts: J.J. Abrams, The Force Awakens; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
If I had any real balls I would predict Abrams in and McCarthy out, but I don’t have the balls nor the heart to do that. I feel fairly confident that the DGA will announce five out of the seven of the names above. And now, it’s your turn.
I didn’t get to play, so I hope I’m proven wrong with, say, Abrams, Haynes, Abrahamson, Miller, and Spielberg, but no way that happens.
Inarritu
McCarthy
McKay
Spielberg
Scott
My predictions
Innaritu
Scott
McKay
Abrams
Mccarthy
NGNG – J.J. Abrams gets in!
No word about the new “First-Time Feature Film nominees” Category? I suppose it will be
dominated by Ex Machina, but who will be the others? I Hope for Slow West and
Bone Tomehawk to get in and maybe even Son of Saul. Is Me, Earl and the Dying
Girl eligable? Because that will probably also find it way in.
“Bone Tomahawk” was amazing and one of the best films of the year…even outshining “The Hateful Eight”…
Between Bone, The Hateful Eight, Slow West and The Reveneant it’s been an amazing year for westerns. And yeah, I would say Bone Tomahawk is the best of the bunch.
Speaking of directors, I found Quentin Tarantino so annoying at the Globes. In accepting the prize for Ennio Morricone, he crowed, ”’Do you know that Ennio Morricone has never won an award … for an individual movie … in America?” Wrong! Morricone had won not one previous Globe, but two: ”The Mission” (1987) and ”The Legend of 1990”’ (2000). As such a giant fan of Morricone, why didn’t he know that? As Tarantino made his way to the stage, an announcer told everyone that Tarantino was accepting on Morricone’s behalf, and that ”this is Ennio Morricone’s third win in 8 nominations.” He would wrap up by egotistically stating the obvious: ”I have to say that I directed the movie that the great Ennio Morricone, at 87, wrote the original score and won the Golden Globe.”’
what i want:
Scott
McCarthy
Miller
Haynes
Innaratu
What will happen:
Scott
McCarthy
Mckay
Innaratu
one of Speilberg/Miller/Haynes
Also DOR is insufferale. He ruined this years THR roundable.
This is hardest category ever. Even more then supporting actor. I went with Scenario A since that is logical but as Globes show sometime logic can get thrown out the window.
Let’s not forget that the Academy has a longstanding tradition of snubbing Steven Spielberg. Even if the Spiels gets into the DGA field (which I suspect he will), I wouldn’t count on him getting a Best Director nomination with so many intriguing others in the mix.
The way this crazy precursor season has gone, watch this — maybe one or two of Sasha’s seven picks will actually get nominated and the other slots will go to Haynes, Coogler, Garland, Fukunaga, Boyle or others whose inclusion would shake up the Best Picture race yet again.
Ridley Scott, The Martian
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
That’s what I predicted – in order to at least have the best shot at 5/5, if McCarthy misses.
4/5 isn’t too bad. I really thought Spielberg would be there. McCarthy deserves it though. So did Haynes.
Believe me, I’d much rather have Spotlight be snubbed for nothing from now on than get predictions 100% right!… 🙂
This has been a really random season, so I just went crazy. I predicted:
Scott
Inarritu
McCarthy
Abrahamson
Haynes
I guess Spielberg, Hooper, Miller, and McKay would be the outside spoilers.
The bad news for Haynes: by my count, no DGA nominee since the expansion (6 years, 30 nominees) has come from a non-PGA nominated movie. I hope he gets in (but not instead of McCarthy), for the sake of Carol’s (and his) many fans, and so that the series of exceptions and upsets continues!…
Brian I hope you’re right but it feels pretty late for the revenant to start sweeping now
Is it really that late? Last year, ”Birdman” didn’t begin its sweep of the industry awards until Jan. 24, when it won the PGA. The next night, it won SAG Ensemble. And Inarritu didn’t win the DGA until Feb. 7.
I’m going with what I want to be nominated, most likely not going to happen though.
Todd Haynes
George Miller
Ridley Scott
JJ Abrams
Alejandro G. Inarritu
There’s a solid chance the Revenant wins everything it can. People hadn’t seen it when they were making other noms. It’s an Oscar movie in the traditional sense. Think Braveheart, Gladiator, Dances With Wolves, Last Emperor. I love Spotlight, but big, difficult-to-make movies tend to rule the roost. Miller might upset, at DGA or the Oscars, since Iñarritu won last year. But The Revenant will be hard to stop. I bet Hardy will get caught up in the wave too, since everyone in Hollywood wonders how to act with the intensity that he does.
Inarritu
McCarthy
McKay
Scott
Spielberg
I went:
Scott
Miller
McKay
Inarritu
Spielberg
I fear that McCarthy and Haynes will sit this one out.
Don’t think “wartime” Spielberg has failed to crack this category since Empire of the Sun. Hard to bet against him, but I am. I like Haynes, and too many of y’all give up on him too easily. Since Danish Girl is out (no pun intended), Haynes has got the only “classy” film in the race (read: Merchant Ivory slot, Jane Austen slot, costume-drama-ish), and the DGA/Oscar people have shown that they love that.
Haynes, Iñárritu, McCarthy, Miller, Scott
War Horse he wasn’t
Ah. I thought someone below said War Horse DID make it. I shouldn’t have listened
I love your optimism for Haynes but your reasoning is questionable. Give up on him too easily? You’re talking about Haynes who has never once been nominated for a DGA vs Spielberg who has been nominated 11 times. Haynes had the ‘classy’ movie with Far From Heaven too and didn’t get in. It’s not hard for anyone to look at history and say Spielberg is looking much better than Haynes.
but again…i hope you are so right!!
I think they’re right to give up on Haynes – no DGA nominee since the expansion (6 years, 30 nominees) has come from a non-PGA nominated movie.
I will go with :
Inarritu
McKay
Miller
Scott
Spielberg
I would love to see only directors of films where the direction was the film’s selling point: Scott, Inarritu, Miler, Haynes, Villenueve. McCarthy, McKay, Spielberg did fine jobs but those films rise and fall on writing/acting, in my opinion. Not going to happen, of course.
I like your list but playing devil’s advocate … Is Haynes’ direction considered the selling point of Carol? I think the acting and story is. Remember, the project was in development for many years, John Crowley (who directed Brooklyn) was all set to direct and Haynes came in relatively late. It’s as close as he’s come in his career to being a director for hire.
I’m actually only seeing Carol weekend but from clips and every other Haynes film, directorial style always trumps everything else. I’ll see if the full film changes my mind.
I will seriously cry if miller doesn’t get in. Also I wanna do a ngng…I wanna see the director that did ex machina make it. .fucking loved that movie.
I re-watched WAR HORSE a few weeks ago because it’s become a Christmas film tradition for me and it kocked me senseless.
Predictions:
McCarthy
McKay
Iñárritu
Scott
Miller
Would love to see:
Scott
Spielberg
Miller
Haynes
Tarantino
Ideal/just world:
Michael Mann
Ryan Coogler
James Kent
Todd Haynes
George Miller
Iñarritu, Miller, Fukunaga, Scott and McCarthy
Fukunaga.
NGNG: Coolger, but I almost put down Gary Gray.
If Haynes or Miller don’t make the cut then…fck these awards, seriously.
Sorry that isn’t post right:
My predictions:
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
I think sadly, Miller is the one who gets snubbed. Looking at the movie themes and overall presence of this organization, I think Mad Max will come off too loud and not to be taken seriously. Hopefully I am wrong, but I can’t see voters going for 2 Sci-Fi movies when the competition is this intense. I never would have thought Spielberg might indeed be a factor, but his DGA track record is excellent- and Bridge of Spies is way more director-friendly then War Horse.
Keep in mind Oscar voters always usually have a candidate that the DGA doesn’t have. Last year Clint Eastwood made DGA but was replaced by Bennet Miller. So Perhaps GEORGE Miller will be the one to replace Spielberg this year.
I’m predicting the same thing. Only difference is that, out of sheer pessimism, I’m predicting the Academy to follow suit exactly. Not that I actually believe 100% that these two groups will match, but that I can see these five being nominated with either of them, and I rly don’t wanna get my hopes up and predict either Haynes or Miller.
My predictions:
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
I think sadly, Miller is the one who gets snubbed. Looking at the movie themes and overall presence of this organization, I think Mad Max will come off too loud and not to be taken seriously. Hopefully I am wrong, but I can’t see voters going for 2 Sci-Fi movies when the competition is this intense. I never would have thought Spielberg might indeed be a factor, but his DGA track record is excellent- and Bridge of Spies is way more director-friendly then War Horse.
Keep in mind Oscar voters always usually have a candidate that the DGA doesn’t have. Last year Clint Eastwood made DGA but was replaced by Bennet Miller. So Perhaps GEORGE Miller will be the one to replace Spielberg this year.
Personally, I think Miller, Pohlad, Haynes, Villenueve, and Docter were the “best” directors of the year. It’s too bad most of them don’t have a chance of being nominated for an Oscar.
NGNG Danny Boyle
Hope not!!!!
It was the least Boyley of Boyle films. He pointed the camera and let Sorkin’s script do everything.
Bold Prediction for the contest:
Scott
Miller
Inarritu
Spielberg
Villeneuve
Same here
Adam- Sicario is my #2 of the year- an amazing film that deserves a bit of love
I think you cant discount the Birdman rewards for The Revenant from HFPA. But I also think The Revenant has a lot of buzz at the moment which will help it.
As with Boyhood and Social Network, Spotlight feels too “small” and more like a critics rather than a major awards winner. With the Revevant, AMPAS have an alternative now if they want to go with something more showy, more baity. AMPAS showed with Silence of the Lambs, Godfather, Departed, No Country that they can go for something violent and dark, so I dont think this rules The Revenant out.
Whatever happens, the Globes was a great surprise for this Revenant fan. I loved Spotlight but The Revenant is something else.
The Social Network wasn’t small. It was arguably bigger than The King’s Speech.
I was just on the PGA to remember the ten that were nominated and under Ex Machina it says the following. Was this always on there and being questioned? Maybe it has been and I missed it.
‘This film is in the process of being vetted for producer eligibility’
They had that in the original announcement.
thx!
The good thing is there is an abundance of deserving directors this year. Whoever the final five are they’re guaranteed to be great. And a good variety of filmmaking styles.
This is a good point. There’s seemingly no Morten Tyldum lurking to really rob someone of a deserving spot. McCarthy, McKay, Miller, Scott, Haynes….all would be fine choices. (Haven’t seen Revenant yet so I’m withholding judgement on Inarritu.) I didn’t care for “Bridge Of Spies” so I personally wouldn’t be keen on Spielberg getting in there but it’s Spielberg, ya know? I really liked Star Wars but would actually nominate Spielberg over Abrams since the reverse would be like awarding a photocopy over an original print.
I think a Todd Haynes surprise is more likely at the Oscars.
Am I right that since 2000, only twice has DGA matched Oscars? 2010 and 2006.
DGA has traditionally been a better match with Best Picture than Best Director (even before the expanded slate). Don’t predict it as if you are predicting the Best Director Oscar. Ask instead what the top 5 films in Best Picture are…
I think the only person to get a DGA nomination for directing a non-BP nominee since the slate expanded was Fincher for TGWTDT.
Ahh. If that is the case it’s likely Inarritu, Scott, Spielberg, McCarthy and one of McKay, Haynes, or Miller.
I’m not certain Scott is top 5, but I agree with the other 3 as the most likely.
I personally say McKay and Miller as the other two, but who knows?!?!
A funny stat is that Oscar has nominated the same number of Directors who didn’t direct BP nominees as DGA since the slate expanded (Oscar’s being Miller for FOXCATCHER, of course).
If Haynes didn’t get nominated for the PGAs, I can’t see the DGA picking him, either.
I think the shocker that we all should have come seeing sooner (and is actually my prediction) is that the DGA (maybe even AMPAS) will recognize Denis Villeneuve for SICARIO. It’s getting a lot of guild love. It clearly has a following. I’m banking on the love continuing with DGA, and a damn good showing on Oscar morning with multiple tech nods, plus Picture. I’m always looking for what movie could pull a CITY OF GOD each year — BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD pulled it off, and I think we’re due this year. SICARIO fits the bill.
That would be awesome. I can dream of that as well as a nom for Crowley even though that is the longest shot in the dark ever. I’d settle for a final DGA five of Scott, Miller, Villeneuve, Spielberg and Haynes
I think Haynes is done. SPOTLIGHT didn’t need the Globe to keep momentum. CAROL needed recognition somewhere to make a big move. I think it’s dead in the water. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it ended up missing out on Picture at this point.
Would like to see this happen.
I’d love it if Miller, McKay, Villeneuve, Scott all make it in. With Spielberg/McCarthy/Haynes for 5th.
Is Bill Pohlad a member of the DGA? If so, he’s my NGNG
I’ll just be thrilled if Love & Mercy nominated for best supporting actor and sound mixing.
I don’t know why it isn’t eligible for Best Song. That would be almost a guaranteed nomination, especially this year.
Also, if McCarthy somehow doesn’t get nominated…I mean, thats it, right? Nobody wins Best Picture without getting in this thing, particularly since 2009 when the preferential ballot came in.
It would be seem so. Spotlight has very few shots at tech noms, shaky acting noms, if the directing nomination is also shaky, how’s it supposed to win, just with screenplay? I know, Driving Miss Daisy, but that’s only one example in a long award history.
In my opinion, Spotlight is the sort of movie that could (and still can) win BP if it has enough support to land a couple of acting nominations. The direction is good but understated, so it has to raise its popularity through the popularity of the performances, since it doesn’t really push the limits at any other category except maybe screenplay. Unfortunately for Spotlight, other performances, even other performances within an ensemble seem to be stealing the show.
If he gets nominated, Innaritu is about to enter a very august class of directors.
Only five directors have gone on to a Best Director nomination AFTER winning the previous year — Woody Allen, Elia Kazan, Frank Capra, Leo McCarey and Lewis Milestone
There have only been two directors that have won Best Director two years in a row — John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz. Nobody in the last sixty-five years.
3rd time will be the charm
You’d be silly to not include Spielberg. He’s been a DGA nominee 11 times. ELEVEN.
War Horse is the only film of his he didn’t get a DGA nom for that was a Best Pic Oscar nominee. Lincoln, Munich, Saving Private Ryan, Amistad, Schindler’s List, Empire of the Sun, Color Purdy, E.T., Close Encounters, Jaws…he was nominated for all of them by DGA.
NGNG: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
There’s always that one guy nominated for these things that don’t end up in the Best Director line-up
I think its gonna be Todd Haynes. We’ll all celebrate tomorrow until get brought back to earth on Thursday morning
No Guts No Glory : Denis Villeneuve, SICARIO
AGI is out. No way he makes the cut with them throwing it his way last year. Too many other good directors to recognize.
he is only lock, i said that even before globes
kewl
he did awesome job in revenant. deal with it. i think only Miller was better this year
we have a stan on our hands!
He won’t be nominated you’re saying?
If Abrams makes it in, then is Star Wars a lock for best pic at the Oscars? I hope not ….
I’m still holding out hope that the last slot will be filled by László Nemes/Son of Saul in one of those pleasant surprises that sometimes happens.
This is more of an Oscar BD move than a DGA move.
Nemes isn’t a DGA member, for what it’s worth.
I there any lock for DGA noms this year? Maybe AGI
Ridley Scott
I think that’s the only 100%. Pretty much all combinations go through him.
Here’s what I hope: Adam McKay, Denis Villeneuve, George Miller, Ridley Scott, Todd Haynes
Here’s what I predict:
Adam McKay
George Miller
Ridley Scott
Alejandro G. Inarritu
Tom McCarthy
if there’s a spoiler, it’s Spielberg over McCarthy (which I wouldn’t like)
My sincere hope is that the “shocker” is Todd Haynes. That’s a director making art with no sense of pretense, of people pleasing and going for the obvious manipulation. That’s the kind of director I wish they’d reward, but they never do.
If Miller doesn’t get in, I’ll cry in a corner.
If Miller doesn’t get in, I think I’ll stop following these awards forever
That was a tough prediction. I can easily see Miller, McCarthy, Inarritu, McKay and Spielberg (my 5 predictions) along with Haynes, Scott and Abrahamson making the cut. If there’s enough passion votes then watch out for Boyle and Fukunaga.
The idea of Todd Haynes not making the cut saddens me so deeply.
He might!!
It makes me ill.