At last, the glamour categories. A lot of tricky maneuverings happening here as our voters cast ballots to decide which performances are Lead and which are Supporting. Mathematics brings down the gavel to make the final judgement. Dr Rob will be here to explain how it all happened – and how it may play out tomorrow morning when the real Oscar ballot results are revealed. How do actual Oscar voters differ from you and me? To quote Fitzgerald and Hemingway:
F. Scott: “The rich are different from you and me.”
Ernest: “Yes, they have more money.”
Lead Actress
Lead Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
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Links to PDFs of the complete set of ballot charts
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Editing
Featured Ballot Posts
I’m glad to see i wasn’t the only one to vote for Arielle Holmes “Heaven Knows What” for Best Actress!!!!
Cool!
I was not the only one to vote for Pierre-Yves Cardinal in supporting for Tom at the farm 🙂
Supporting actor is such a great mess. No one except Rylance is a sure thing.
Vikander may be a double nominee this afternoon or morning for you Americans
Though I love Mara as an actress, I am against category fraud and placed her in the lead category, where she belongs
Damn. I rly wanted the dog from White God to get the nomination in Lead Actor. fs
There is something else to note with Supporting Actor. I cannot recall a category that did not have a first round nominee. It took SIX rounds before Rylance was nominated.
Poor Jacob Tremblay, almost nominated for both Supporting & Lead 🙁
Interesting that in these four races, the eventual nominees also were the ones who started out with the largest votes in round one. The top of the ballot really does matter!
Rarely does that change. Usually the nominees start out in first through sixth place. Last year Felicity Jones started out in tenth and managed to sneak in as a nominee as #5.
Rooney in Supporting. Wow.
We complain about category fraud and STILL put Rooney Mara is supporting. WE DID THAT!
I’m confused about Fassbender. I thought that it was possible to be nominated twice in the same category for different roles?
Not anymore. Rule was changed decades ago.
woah that’s so stupid!
nope only one nomination per actor however they can be nominated in supporting and lead for different roles. I personally think if you gave two of the best performances you should be able to be nominated in that category accordingly
Yay for Paul Dano! I put him on both my Supporting and Lead ballots because I wanted him to be in so badly!
So did I.
If the Academy nominates Tremblay, I think I’ll cry of joy <3
It looks like people were about even when it came to voting for Tremblay. Only about a dozen or so more voted for him more in Supporting than in Lead. If all those votes were for one of those categories, he would’ve been in.
Tremblay got hosed by category confusion (Hint: it’s a LEAD ROLE if ever I saw one).
a lead role that should just be considered far away from an Oscar nomination.
It looks like people were about even when it came to voting for Tremblay. Only about a dozen or so more voted for him more in Supporting than in Lead. If all those votes were for one of those categories, he would have been in.
I hope this is correct and Theron gets a nom. She played such a kick ass character and that rarely gets notice at the Oscars.
All I always hear is blaming the Academy and insulting voting members in all sort of ways… but, do you realise that you vote the same way, in the same breath, for the same people and films?
this.
I put Tremblay and Dano as lead on my ballot to fight this frustrating category fraud that we always seem to complain about. But clearly most people vote the same as the Academy despite all the complaining.
Love seeing Michael B. Jordan and Mark Ruffalo on these lists. And after having seen both Room and Brooklyn, I want Ronan to win even though Room was a more powerful movie. Ronan WAS Brooklyn while Larson was co-anchored by the brilliant Tremblay in Room.
Love this.
But for betting (I bet on nominations, not winners, so either my friend or me is winning $ tomorrow), I prefer the aggregate of the GoldDerby people. They try to think like the Academy, and I think the Academy often tries to think like the Academy. Give or take a Christian Bale in American Hustle, this is the way to bet. It means I’m holding my nose and taking Helen Mirren in BSA (though she phoned it in) over K-Stew, who I liked in Clouds. But I wish these would be the nominees!
I’m quite surprised that it took SIX (6!!!) rounds before Mark Rylance nabbed his AD nomination as best supporting actor for “Bridge of Spies”. He’s considered the front-runner, so I was expecting him to make it in the first round quite easily. But it took SIX (6!!!) rounds. Sheesh. I guess it just goes to show you how truly competitive that best supporting actor race has turned out. I don’t recall that happening before with AD’s simulated ballot.
Best Actress looks like a 2-way race between Larson and Ronan.
Best Actor, while competitive, looks to be more and more like Leo’s year to shine.
And Best Supporting Actress come Oscar time I think will be Alicia Vikander for “The Danish Girl” – not “Ex Machina”. Even though the critics have all gone for the later, I have a sneaking suspicion they’ll embrace her for “The Danish Girl” instead (only because more members will probably have seen “The Danish Girl” than “Ex Machina”).
I’m not convinced that Vikander will get supporting for The Danish Girl over Ex Machina. Ex Machina appeared on the PGA and got a shout out from the DGA with the New Director category. Clearly, it has some fanfare in the industry (thousands of people vote in both). Her role in Ex Machina is clearly supporting while the Danish Girl is clearly lead. I think people will split their votes for the Danish Girl (some will put lead, others will put supporting) while most everyone will put her down for supporting in Ex Machina.
Of course I could be completely wrong and you can just ignore me!
I won’t ignore you. You’ve brought up some interesting facts surrounding her eligibility and how the voters may swing.
Same thing arises with Paul Dano in “Love & Mercy”. So many people may be voting for him in lead AND supporting that he may not get nominated in either category. His chances are better in supporting, however
And I will confess that I never saw “Ex Machina”. It’s on my “have to watch” list, though. I find it interesting that Oscar Isaac is also mentioned as a BSA nominee on numerous awards circuits. A double reason to see the movie. I really like his work.
I’m morbidly curious, but would Rooney Mara have made it into the lead actress category if she wasn’t removed after round two? She was in 4th place and seemed like she might have gotten in.
Janet, to me it looks quite likely. Somebody (Rob) correct me if I’m wrong, but here were the vote tallies in Round 2
Mara – 87
Rampling – 82
Theron – 66
Since Rampling and Theron were able to remain in play for lead, they had plenty of time to accumulate enough redistributed ballots — even though they were both running behind Mara when she was taken out.
Just ran the numbers. She would have been nominated in fourth place after a long drawn out slug fest with Charlotte Rampling.
I’d see that film.
I’m confused – can someone explain why an actor/actress cannot be eligible for two different roles in the same category? For example, the charts state that Fassbender qualifies for in Lead for Steve Jobs, so he is ineligible to qualify in Lead for Macbeth. Is this just for the purposes of the simulated ballot or is this a rule in the Academy as well? It seems very strange that this would be the case given that one person can be nominated more than once in non-acting categories (e.g. Soderbergh in 2000 for Directing or Desplat last year for Score).
It’s an Oscar rule.
I thought they can be nominated more than once as long as it’s for a different role..?
You can be nommed for lead and supporting for different roles, but never twice in the same category for any of the acting awards, even if for different roles
what a bullshit rule
You can be nommed twice for other awards like director or score, but not twice in any same acting category. Ryan, wasn’t there an AD discussion/article once about what actors/actresses would have been double nominees were that rule not in place? Wish I could see it now (if it exists)
Guys, we spend hours blaming category frauds and then we place Rooney Mara in Supporting?!
LOL
Dear fellow AD readers, please explain me how in the hell so many of you thought Mara and Dano were ‘supporting’ performances.
I put her in the lead! If you notice, she was top five for the lead, but got eliminated after round two because she qualified in supporting. It seems she could have made it into the lead category if the redistribution wasn’t cut short.
She got 15% of the votes in Supporting too.
The directions were to vote as if I were a member of the Academy. And honestly, even though I think Dano was a co-lead (haven’t had a chance to see “Carol” yet), as a member who liked his performance a lot I would rather nominate him as supporting since that’s where they’re running him vs risking no nomination because people can’t agree on where the performance belongs.
Well. I didn’t vote for Mara anywhere. If I had, it would be Lead. Having said that, if I DID love her, but already had 5 passion votes for Lead Actress, I think I’d ponder voting for her in Supporting just so she’s have a nom. Again, I didn’t do that. But I think a lot of voters might think that way.
I put Dano in Lead… aaand ALSO voted him in Supporting because I figured he has a better shot there. He is most definitely lead but I wanted him recognized (it’s my favorite performance and movie of the year) so I put him in both.
Didn’t vote for Mara but if I did I’d put her in Lead.
Yes!! Charlize Theron got in the top 5 for Best Actress.
I love these results. All but guaranteed to be better than the Academy’s.
I don’t mean to be a prick, but it’s making me feel really uncomfortable that you’re releasing the results on different posts. I can’t follow… This is too much to handle! Why don’t you post yet another post with everything in it? lol
That was my suggestion. I thought it would allow for more duscussion about the nominations over the process. The process gets discussed along the way.
That’s totally right! The good side is we can have further category-oriented discussions about the results on different pages, does make sense! Thx again and again!
Christophe, you’re not being a prick at all. But Rob needed time to complete these charts in stages this year — and we actually thought that the discussions would be easier to follow if we broke the results down into sets of categories where distinct and unique issues arose.
This way, for example, we don’t have everybody talking about surplus Best Picture ballots on the same page where other people are talking about the category-hopping going on in the acting categories.
Tell you what I’ll do for you. I’ll add a list of PDF links to ALL the categories to the end of each of the Ballot posts. So you can always go directly to any category, no matter which post you’re in.
The length of the posts gets out of control when we try to post 10 different charts in a single column — and in order to keep the sizes large, we try to improve page-load time for people on mobile or with slower connections.
Too much graphics intensive content on one post causes lags for many people.
OMG you’re so nice and helpful! I was kidding ’cause I’m easily overwhelmed and change-averse. The simulation is always a very exciting and rewarding experience (though apparently my ballot didn’t result in any actual nom), thanks again to everyone for all the hard work. AD is the only awards web site with that kind of thorough analysis, extensive info and thought-provoking journalism/criticism, you really take your subject matter seriously!
Christophe, here’s another thing we can do. I’ve rearranged the order of posts from the past 3 days so that now all the Simulated Ballot Posts are all in a cluster of 4 adjacent posts. Everything should be in easy reach now.
Alicia Vikander for the win! Give this swedish beauty what she deserves.
A good sha..ing?
Hahaha. Also.