The Producers Guild handed out its first award in 1990, the year Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture. That remains the only year in their entire history that their winner did not have an ACE Eddie nomination (although in their first year of existence the PGAs were held three days after the Oscars). This is funny because it is such a reliable stat and yet so many are predicting Spotlight to win both the PGA and the Best Picture Oscar, while they are thinking the DGA might go to someone else. I am just an Oscar blogger. Standing here in front of you. Asking you to trust me. Actually, don’t trust me.
The reason I can’t be trusted is that I have fallen head over heels in love with Adam McKay’s The Big Short and honestly, it’s clouding my judgment. I can’t be trusted and will likely get my prediction wrong. All I can do is stand by the stats, Mike Burry style, even when the odds are against my prediction that The Big Short will win the whole season. Other than pure love, the reason is that it’s still the only film that has almost all of the necessary stats a Best Picture winner needs. It is missing two — the Globes nod for Best Director (90 people made that decision), and it wasn’t seen at Telluride. It’s flying under the radar enough, though, that no one is attacking it, not yet anyway, or asking for their money back.
So — no film has all of the stats in place. They are seemingly all supported across the board in different ways. Like, how weird is it that BAFTA didn’t nominate Mad Max: Fury Road for Best Picture or Best Director, and didn’t nominate Tom McCarthy for Director? How weird is it that only Best Picture nominees with the SAG Awards Ensemble nomination are Spotlight and The Big Short? No Revenant? How weird is it that Mad Max and The Revenant don’t have screenplay nominations? Of all of the stats, I really trust two and only two to be reliable, SAG Ensemble and the ACE Eddie. The reason for this is the number of voters in play. ACE has around 6,000 voters. The SAG Awards nomination committee had around 2,000. Those are your biggest voting groups so far for any of the films. To me that means they should count more. On the other hand, this is the weirdest season so who can say what will happen? DGA is also a big one — a major indicator for Best Picture, anyway. You have to go back to Driving Miss Daisy to find a year when the PGA winner was not also a DGA nominee.
And I’m being honest here when I say — I have no clue. I am relying on the stats for this bet. It will be interesting to me just how the stats fail this year, where they fail, and why.
Which films only have the DGA and PGA?
The Big Short
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spotlight
Which have DGA/PGA/SAG Awards Ensemble?
Spotlight
The Big Short
Which films have the DGA, ACE, SAG Awards Ensemble, and the PGA?
The Big Short
So, it’s weird, right? All of my pundit pals at Gold Derby are predicting the stats to fail, you know, like the housing market? My pundit pals are SHORTING the race. They’re predicting against the stats.
At any rate, with the PGA we’re dealing with the the pesky preferential ballot which could produce an interesting result. Since Oscar expanded the Best Picture field in 2009, the PGA has matched Oscar 100% of the time. But in 2013 it almost didn’t. In 2013, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied. Gravity took the DGA while 12 Years took Best Picture. But what if Gravity had won outright (which, but for one single vote, it could have done)? And 12 Years had still won Best Picture? Then we wouldn’t be counting so heavily on PGA at all. We’d have had no real indication at all that 12 Years was in line to win Best Picture. American Hustle won the SAG Awards Ensemble. With Alfonso Cuarón winning the DGA and Gravity winning the PGA, we would have been 100% convinced that Gravity would win the Oscar. Except that it wouldn’t have been. 12 Years would have still won Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Screenplay. Thus, there is always that chance the PGA will fail this year.
Since it hasn’t yet failed, though, I’d stick with it. If Spotlight or The Revenant or Mad Max wins, I’ll go with that for the Best Picture win most likely.
I personally think that Mad Max and The Revenant would be better winners with five slots rather than ten or more than 9. The preferential ballot favors films that are well liked across the board, but not necessarily those that have a smaller number of passionate supporters. The Revenant is more likely a number 1 passion film. Mad Max is definitely a film that could be 1 or 2 or 3, though. Anne Thompson is predicting it to win and that would probably be my second choice. And Spotlight is a huge threat to win here. We haven’t seen the movie win over a large consensus vote yet but this weekend might be the moment when it does. The only thing that prevents me from predicting it — because it does seem to be the frontrunner — is that lack of an ACE Eddie nod. Those voters liked Star Wars better than Spotlight for the Eddie and that is just so strange to me. With these large numbers of voters you’re not really looking for a specialized voting body, like the National Society of Film Critics or the LA Film Critics, but rather lots and lots of many different kinds of people.
Our contest right now has Spotlight ahead with the most votes. Behind it Mad Max: Fury Road. After that, The Revenant and lagging way behind them, the dark horse, The Big Short. I will say this much — I bet last year that Boyhood would be the winner in the contest, with Imitation Game right behind it and I will bet that Birdman was in third place. You just never know how it will go. Either way, we’re sticking with our long shot prediction of The Big Short, just for the hell of it.
Which film do you think is going to win?
[yop_poll id=”3″]
who cares? sorry i not gonna hide my attiotude toward the guilds and oscar..i dont anymore i do respect someof you do..ok funny thing i cvare too bnut i know the result i a fortune teller i foresee accurately the future i am a terminator from the future to terminate your hopes of as a credible pga winner- your ‘hopes have been terminated’ spotlight will unjustifiably win or the more deserving but not MOST deserving Revenant but your hopes for the Martian have totally been obliterated worse than terminated:P sorry no joy here only death and destruction in my world:P understand? pga utterly predictable and disappointing
When is the announcement going to be made?
I was searching around on the PGA site and googling with no luck finding the time of the awards presentation, or even if the presentation will be televised/streamed. Strange to have a significant awards presentation, and here we are 2016 with the internet and all, and no one thinks to provide the time of the presentation, not even the PGA and it is their show!
Sasha has posted in another discussion thread that the Producers Guild will announce around 10 p.m. Pacific. Thanks.
Will the PGA Awards have a live stream somewhere? I don’t see them being televised. I wasn’t too crazy about refreshing the web page endlessly waiting to see who won last year. Thanks
Seen Joy (unjustly snubbed) and jennifer lawrence deserves to win best actress on behalf of film. Saw the REvenant and i say this rite now. The bear scene made the film better than it coulda been. It deserues for dicaprio to win at long last his best actor oscar make no mistake everyone but frankly, it a i owe u for snubbing him for his marginaly mre challenging role i feel in the aviator . But as for the revenant as a whole i felt yes it a new benchmark in natural light cinematography but as brillibnt as tom hardy is in his few roles boy he has a big fvture ! But revenant is ill defined in broader place and setting , and unless u knw who which faction and u a historian in 1820 america, u get confvsed. I got l6st in broader context of tale. At same time dicaprios pers6nal journey was truly riveting thrilling. In truth however the film has svffered by not landing a screenplay nomination. If it inspired by true events is it not important to xplain sence of setting place , factions? The revenant has three stand out memorable moments but they seem stramgely disconne2ted out of context of sense of place, broader setting. It too narrow in it story it just at it core bout revenge. It a wrng path academ y is on to embrace this film as most nominated . It xcelent but not great.
Now i not even gonna grace spotlight which to me feels like this yrs ‘crash’ but havent we done this b.s. dance with academy to death bfre? Arent the public over it? Way it rebell-ng against the guilds ie mainly only acting ensemble but hardly any inditidual actors in that film nominated for sag then no editing guild. Envf said revenant far better choice to win best pic. But not the best.
I never saw FURY RD given it pure fiction and a franchise sequel resvrrected after being dormant for longest time , bit of oscar history beck6ns if it wins i partly regret i could not get fury rd on blu ray. Got a limited edition release. What i dnt get with oscar is this it take til now for a action adventure film to be n6minated? Yet a film the film that shattered and proved real drama and fictitous action can domioate talk of town and recieve stil to date largest of critical acclaim is indeed was the DARK KNIGHT remember that oscar snub that made many of u c red at oscar? Not aga4nst fury rd winning shame i yet to c it regret that i wil for sure.
But there is one film to me which is the best nominee to me comfortably. A year whem the snub of snubs ensures the ghost of gladiator looms large. Yes that film deservedly wo best pic but though ridley scott got best director nom he got snubbed now he not even been nominated for my prefered option to win best pic THE MARTIAN which, given it one of the few regardles of unjust best director snub no disgraceful is the penultimate cho4ce which if oscar give it best pic and quite a few others at last science themed and only briliantly made future sci-fi finaly begins to be on equal footing to mre trad4tional oscar genre winners!
How fitting for ridley scott of all filmmakers for his film to burst open the floodgates on genre he redefined for our generation in ovr time. Snubbing best director though is oscar way of dunping on least liked genre to them . Apalling but to b xpected and yet the MARTIAN has all guild nominations mre so than revenant mre so than spotlight same i think? As fvry rd. Adapted screenplay, actor guild, editing, picture and director.
It shovlda been most nominated. But we al knw oscar warped mentality thez dnt care what we thinj and wrngly it revenant vs spotlight for the duel for half baked glory. Shoukda been fvry rd vs. Martian for triumphant glory .
Ghosts of dark knight and gladiator loom as the wildcard factor
“The Producers Guild handed out its first award in 1990, the year Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture. That remains the only year in their entire history that their winner did not have an ACE Eddie nomination (although in their first year of existence the PGAs were held three days after the Oscars). This is funny because it is such a reliable stat and yet so many are predicting Spotlight to win both the PGA and the Best Picture Oscar”
OK, fair enough. So, how many movies that had won ZERO Best Film awards throughout the season before the PGA gave out its award ended up winning that one? That’s a pretty reliable stat as well (with NO exceptions, if my research isn’t flawed), one which is saying The Big Short won’t win the PGA. Guess we’re not the only ones predicting against extremely reliable stats!…
“But in 2013 it almost didn’t. In 2013, 12 Years a Slave and Gravity tied. Gravity took the DGA while 12 Years took Best Picture. But what if Gravity had won outright (which, but for one single vote, it could have done)? And 12 Years had still won Best Picture? Then we wouldn’t be counting so heavily on PGA at all. We’d have had no real indication at all that 12 Years was in line to win Best Picture.”
OK, but even just KNOWING it was that close, we still should be counting the PGA as a valid clue, actually. The point with that tie was that it was proof that 12 Years was good enough to even get THAT CLOSE to winning the PGA. Clearly, it couldn’t be counted as evidence that it was AHEAD of Gravity. (Other things indicated that.) But it WAS evidence that it could win the Oscar just as easily as Gravity could and, since, basically, all of the other strong evidence was pointing in 12 Years’ direction, it was clearly the overall favorite, and would (and should) have been even had it been announced, for some reason, that it had finished one or two votes behind Gravity with the PGA. Because how relevant a win would that have been, as evidence of more support? Pretty much completely irrelevant. And, had that been the case, but had it NOT been announced, we just wouldn’t have known it, but the PGA results would STILL have been evidence in favor of 12 Years just as much as they were in favor of Gravity.
That’s why I’ve always thought this ‘had Gravity had one more vote’ theory was irrelevant. Not to mention the fact that if we actually bring such ‘what if’ scenarios into the equation, then no stat is truly reliable ever again…
“American Hustle won the SAG Awards Ensemble. With Alfonso Cuarón winning the DGA and Gravity winning the PGA, we would have been 100% convinced that Gravity would win the Oscar.”
Nope. We MIGHT consider it the slight favorite, but without SAG, WGA and Oscar screenplay nominations, and losing BFCA, GG and BAFTA to 12 Years a Slave… the best of pundits would NEVER be completely convinced, and definitely shouldn’t be. It would have been a tough call, that’s all. Like it would be if The Revenant won PGA+DGA this year (yes, EVEN with the extra evidence of the Golden Globe wins.)
I agree that the guild stats are the ones that matter the most, but they’re definitely not the ONLY ones that matter. Because they just don’t clarify things enough sometimes. They didn’t in 2013 (whether or not you consider the tie a win for Gravity, for some reason), and they wouldn’t this year, unless either Spotlight or The Big Short happened to win PGA+SAG+DGA, which they prrrobably won’t…
“Of all of the stats, I really trust two and only two to be reliable, SAG Ensemble and the ACE Eddie. The reason for this is the number of voters in play. ACE has around 6,000 voters. The SAG Awards nomination committee had around 2,000.”
In a few hours’ time we’ll know if you’re right about that…
They might not have any overlap with AMPAS, but there are quite a few people, if you add them all up, who have (collectively, since that’s the way you’re putting it, counting all 6000 for Spotlight’s ACE snub) voted Spotlight the best movie of the year already. Those are thousands as well, probably – I haven’t counted. And there are ZERO who have voted The Big Short as that (again, if that’s how we’re counting). Which is why I’m not at all sure ONE snub that’s for Editing (NOT EVEN for the film, overall) is enough to counter-balance that, when, clearly, there’s a very good chance it was extremely close to not getting snubbed there either (probably 6th place in its respective category, since we’re making assumptions about how close stuff was to happening), seen as it DID get nominated by AMPAS. That’s the reason (again, among others) for which I can’t buy it yet – TBS being the actual favorite. I could be wrong. We’ll soon find out.
Honestly, had The Big Short won even ONE BP award this Oscar season, I would be convinced. Like I said before the Critics’ Choice. The second it wins PGA, if that happens, it’ll immediately turn into my no.1 prediction. But, until then, I think the evidence for it (AND against Spotlight, I mean – the evidence against all others is much more convincing) is scant and circumstantial, at best.
“Since it hasn’t yet failed, though, I’d stick with it. If Spotlight or The Revenant or Mad Max wins, I’ll go with that for the Best Picture win most likely.”
I know you will. 🙂 You always pick the single stat/precursor you think is the strongest and just go with that. I don’t like that approach, as I’ve said before, since I believe it ignores the other clues that, sometimes, are just piling up in the opposite direction (as would be the case with both The Revenant and MMFR this year) – this is the same reason you thought Gravity would win two years ago… (You were officially predicting 12 Years to win, by the end, but repeatedly stated Gravity was the stats favorite and the smart choice, and that you were predicting 12 Years IN SPITE of all that objective evidence, for personal reasons.)
Mad Max. Why not? More of a consensus than The Revenant, and may just have a little more passion (deservingly) than Spotlight.
But Mad Max is flagged as the “action movie” and the “blockbuster”, whereas The Revenant is “artsy”.
How is Mad Max a blockbuster when it hardly made money ? These people i s2g
It made tons of money compared to Spotlight. It also cost a ton of money compared to Spotlight. That’s enough for the Academy to flag it as “blockbuster”.
Spotlight is JUST about to be released in the UK.. I imagine it’s similar in other territories too..
But it will never come even close to the 375 million dollars MM:FR made. It’s a quiet drama, not an audience-magnet.
True.. Brooklyn made a tiny amount, in comparison to some of the other nominees..
A consolation for us all. Any of the top 4 winning would be far, far more deserving than Driving Miss Daisy. Probably the most undeserving BP of all time.
ummmm, how about Crash, Rain Man, Dances with Wolves, or The King’s Speech? all much worse and that’s only the last 25 years…
I think The Big Short will win PGA. I loved it and it just gets better and better after each viewing!
If spotlight wins, it strengthens its favouritism.
If Revenant wins, it moves to favourite.
If mad max or TBS wins this unpredictable season just became moreso.
“If Revenant wins, it moves to favourite.”
I disagree. This should go into the third category in your post, and be replaced by the TBS win.
I went with Spotlight, but I feel that Mad Max: Fury Road could be the surprise winner as I feel it’s the sort of film to get a lot of second placement votes while many may put Spotlight, The Big Short or The Revenant at number one.
I think whatever winds up winning PGA might not necessarily be what winds up winning Best Picture. This could be the first year since the expansion that the stat falters.
Why does it seem more possible than usual? Because this year features a 4-film race instead of the usual 2. Someone who picks one of the other 6 films as their first choice has 4 legitimate contenders to give their 2nd and 3rd place votes to instead of the usual 2 contenders. There’s more room for a lot of shifting between the PGA voters and AMPAS voters depending on who’s ranking what second or third.
Of course, the case may well be that one of these 4 films has significantly more support than the other 3; we just haven’t seen it yet. And the case could also be that the “PGA Effect” leads AMPAS voters to decide to back a winning horse (which is lame, IMO, because you should always vote for the films you personally feel are best and/or the greatest achievements). But either of those two scenarios would yet again lead to a PGA/Best Picture match.
PS, Sasha – You talked me into voting for The Big Short in your poll. Because of ACE. But I do have a sneaking suspicion that The Revenant will win. That seems off to me – like the poorest choice of the top 4, but I just think it will. A film that fails the Bechdel Test with flying colors. Sounds like a film they love to award.
Couldn’t the 4-way race make the PGA even more accurate? If second and third choices matter, the preferential ballot seems to count a lot more, and (as far as I know) only the PGA uses it from the precursors.
100% agree with your reasoning and conclusions. If it’s at all likely to break (any time soon), then the PGA’s streak will probably break this year. I don’t think it will, personally, but I agree that it definitely might.
We are awaited at the gates of Valhalla, and the gates are opening. Mad Max: Fury Road for the (somewhat shocking) win. Witness.
Oh what a lovely day it would turn out to be!
I should’ve voted for Ex Machina.
This is very hard to pick. I think it is not possible to argue that the production of spotlight or big short goes anywhere near the Revenant. I just wonder whether it left its run too late for PGA in terms of momentum from GG and box office.
I’m picking it because I love it, but I think spotlight will win. It’s called doing a Sasha!! (boyhood)
The Revenant is going to win
This has been a fascinating season to Oscar watch – in part because the pulse of where the front runner is has never been especially strong and as Sasha pointed out in a recent post that we have two pairs of duelling films this year – i can’t think of another year where that has been present. Spotlight -v- The Big Short and Mad Max -v- Revenant. As others have pointed out until PGA, SAG and DGA have spoken it is still murky. It is so easy to dismiss the Golden Globes for their ‘party of the year’ and ‘star fucking’ results but it wouldn’t surprise me if the optics of it (something that is hugely impactful) is that The Revenant has gained the momentum from the 3 gg wins – especially the BP/BD and then with 12 noms – could it be a runaway train? I don’t know when the PGA voting deadline passed, but timing and perception play big parts in shaping the season and who prevails.
Yes the issue is whether the Revenant momentum from box office and GG was too late for PGA voters
I actually can think of a year where four films confused the pundits – 1967. You had the “new Hollywood” films: Bonnie and Clyde and The Graduate vs. the “race-themed” films – In the Heat of the Night and Guess Who’s Coming do Dinner. It was a split year. Mike Nichols won the DGA and the Oscar for The Graduate, while Heat/Night won BP. We had less to go on then, but it was still a head-scratcher.
Hey all happy new year and i wish you all a belated merry xmas . Regardless of whether u feel the film u like will win at oscars i hope disappointment (likely) or not u have a year to remember full of health nd happiness .
Before i comment, special thanx to Ryan and of course SAsha for their ongoing support of me and for that matter accomodatin a broad spectrum of opinions and views gjobally no matter how negative or positive our views define the global trends and demands of cinema . And hence once again for more times than i like to count, whereas the public view shapes films oscar discount it mre on that ltr. In meantime study my avatar c if u can understand how my scepticism of oscar is portrayed in my choice of image i welcme u thoughts . finally thanx Specially to ryan for helping me to re register on the best film forum on net great to return
Will win: The Big Short
Should win: The Revenant
Wishful thinking: Mad Max: Fury Road
Realistic hope: The Big Short
Prediction: Spotlight
I’m predicting Big Short, although Spotlight could very well win this. To be honest none of the nominees has gone through a voting body of more than 7,000. So here comes the first test.
Agreed. And the biggest, probably.
I’m gonna trust Sasha here. I’m predicting Big Short.
I’ve decided that no matter what, whatever wins the PGA, I’m predicting to win the Oscar. Besides 2014 (Gravity/12 Years), every year I always underestimate the PGAs and I end up predicting wrong. This year, I’m not going to underestimate the PGA’s. I’m not sure this season will be THAT crazy when all is said and done.
Now watch me be wrong again.
If you HAVE to go ‘extreme’ (as in ‘I’ll base my prediction on one thing only’), then that’s probably the best extreme to go with, indeed… 🙂
If “The Revenant” landed only the eight or nine (Oscar) nominations most were predicting, I’d have to go with “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” for PGA, DGA, and Best Picture. But the damned thing has surprised and (at least to most pundits/prognosticators) over-performed like no movie in recent Oscar history.
A few things I think favoring “The Revenant” for (most of) the rest of the way:
-A torturous production that literally shot on opposite ends of Earth
-12 field-leading Oscar nominations
-Consensus of DiCaprio being due an Oscar
-Lubeski possibly making history
-Inarritu directing a film that is pretty much the antithesis of “Birdman”
-Unexpected big box office numbers
“Spotlight” and “The Big Short” are topical and get us talking, but “The Revenant” is an epic that stays with you (though we’ll each have a different reason for that). Another thing I can see helping “The Revenant” (and “Mad Max: Fury Road” to an extent): There’s a lot of talk about why it can’t/won’t win Best Picture, and in most years that discussion is reserved for front runners, anticipated winners. I mean, no one’s talking about why “Room” won’t win, why “The Martian” shouldn’t win.
Right now, I’m thinking “The Revenant” is going to come out on top on the 28th with 4 or 5 Oscars: Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography, and possibly one of the sound categories or Makeup. It’s not my first choice (I’m in the corner for “Room,” no pun intended), but Best Picture rarely is.
Zach, I agree 1,000%. Pundits expected 8-10 Oscar nominations for ”Revenant,” but it got 12 to lead the pack. It’s overperforming at the box office and just crossed the $100 million mark in only its second week of wide release. I know some pundits don’t believe it can win without a Screenplay or SAG Ensemble nomination, but I don’t buy it. If passion, money and momentum count, I’m betting on ”’Revenant.”
“If passion, money and momentum count, I’m betting on ”’Revenant.””
You don’t KNOW it has passion (within the Academy – not based on 2-3 extra tech noms, compared to lacking a vital screenplay nom) and you don’t KNOW it has momentum (it was a non-contender at the BFCA awards, those are the most recent ones, if you want to talk about momentum.) And, no, money doesn’t matter. History proves it (I won’t detail that, of course, because of my self-imposed commenting principles – I already did before, anyway.)
It’s OK, though, no sense arguing now, so few hours before the event – there’s a very, very good chance you’ll see for yourself tomorrow just how much “momentum” it really has…
I think it’s fair to say that if ”The Revenant” underperformed at the Oscar nominations, pundits would be drawing the conclusion that it doesn’t have much support within the Academy. … And money counts to some degree. If ”Revenant’ had bombed at the box office, I believe that would’ve hurt its chances. … As you say, the PGA winner is only hours away …
Yes, but why are you assuming they’d be right to draw those conclusions? Just because they’re pundits? Are the people “in power” always right, just because they’re there and some people at some point thought their opinions were relevant? I don’t believe that, and I don’t think many do, to be honest. Does anything they say go? Have they not gotten nearly as many predictions wrong as us grunts in the past? The users regularly out-predict the experts at Gold Derby, for example…
As for BO, like I said, it matters for what movies enter the BP race at all (in other words, for nominations), but not for what wins. That’s what history says. Not that it doesn’t matter at all. And, since we’re past the nominations stage… once a movie is nominated, they’re not in any way more likely to give it the win if it’s a huge box office success than if it’s not. No need to run through the examples and numbers again, of course, but that’s what they say.
It’s really hard for you to let others have the last word, huh? OK, I’m stopping here.
I’ve never denied it. 🙂 I believe there’s always a counter-argument, to be honest. Unless I’m actually convinced (which HAS happened in the past, but it’s rare, which makes sense, because most of the stuff that gets debated around here is incredibly subjective and multi-faceted), why shouldn’t I keep looking for those counter-arguments? I genuinely don’t see who it’s hurting and in what way it’s not constructive.
Are you really telling me my counter-arguments are pure crap and I’m continuing the discussion for the sole reason that I want the last word? Because I think I made at least decent points in that last message. Be aware that, if you ARE saying that (honestly, I don’t think you are), yet you refuse to let me know WHY you think my arguments are crap, you’re basically just calling me stupid, and are implying that it’s beneath you to keep talking to me.
Again, I DON’T think that’s what you’re doing. I’m being completely honest about that. I just want you to be aware of the kinds of things that can be read into a reply such as the one you just gave – unlike, for instance, if you’d just said that you choose to not continue the discussion, or said nothing and just done it. Happens to me too, all the time… It’s hard to foresee all of these scenarios, so, sometimes, I also make a comment after which the other person has to point out to me the potential negative connotations I hadn’t even considered. That’s why I’m letting you know – so, maybe, in the future, you might consider not trying to end discussions in that particular way anymore, unless you actually want that person to think those kinds of things…
Cheers, and good luck to your favorite(s) tomorrow!
I’m so sick of hearing about The Revenant’s ‘torturous’ shoot. Mad Max took twice as long to make. They shot over 800 hours of footage… 800 HOURS!! And you want opposite ends of the earth? Take filming your movie in Australia, then jumping on a plane that takes an entire fucking day to bring it back to the US, where the film is being produced, at the studio’s beck and call. Word is they had to wait 18 months for weather at one location.
And the Namibian desert too. Inarritu is such an attention whore.
420 hours of footage i think not 800
They planned to shoot in Australia in 2010 and had almost begun production when it rained and the whole thing flowered and all so they had to wait for 18 months and it still did not turn back into a desert so they had to move the shoot to Namibia in 2012.
Meh, my point still stands. 420 hours down to just 2? Margaret Sixel is a hero. So is George Miller. Namibia, fuck me. Imagine the difficulties of getting a film made in a country with such limited filmmaking facilities! Meanwhile, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is a hack.
It’s not for you to decide what’s best picture..As much as you love Mad Max,the Revenant is a better film and that’s why it will win..
lolololololololololololol when did I say The Revenant wouldn’t win Best Picture? When did I say that award was mine to decide? You’re the one who said that, and then claimed that the award was already decided for the simple fact that – wait for this – you like it more! According to you, it isn’t my decision to make, it’s yours! Are you the entire membership of the Academy, George, or are you just very confused?
LMAO
The Academy has shown no particular predilection in the past 15-20 years for awarding movies based on any of those six things you mention. None whatsoever.
Re-reading my post and to see where I mentioned any of that having had happen in the past 15-20 years… Nope, nothing’s coming up… Hmmm…
Oh, yeah, that’s right: It’s because those points refer only to this awards season and “The Revenant.” Each year is its own beast. Those six points are all in the corner for “The Revenant” and have nothing to do with precedent because sometimes precedent doesn’t matter.
For example:
– “Birdman” won Best Picture with the Academy showing no particular
predilection for awarding Best Picture to film without an Editing
nomination in the past 15-20 years
– “12 Years a Slave” won Best Picture with the Academy showing no particular predilection for awarding Best Picture to a film focusing on Black people in the past 15-20 years (or ever)
– “Argo” won Best Picture with the Academy showing no particular predilection for awarding Best Picture to a film with an non-nominated director in the past 15-20 years
– “The Artist” won Best Picture with the Academy showing no particular predilection for awarding Best Picture to a silent film in the past 15-20 years (or the preceding 82 years)
– “The Hurt Locker” won Best Picture with the Academy showing no particular predilection for awarding Best Picture to a film with a woman director in the past 15-20 years (or ever)
I’m not relying on any past predilections or patterns, just what’s looking favorable to “The Revenant.”
Those were exceptions to single rules in years in which dozens of other rules that said those exact movies would win were upheld. The Revenant is in nowhere near as good a position as any of those, this year.
“Oh, yeah, that’s right: It’s because those points refer only to this awards season and “The Revenant.” Each year is its own beast. Those six points are all in the corner for “The Revenant” and have nothing to do with precedent because sometimes precedent doesn’t matter.”
Sometimes precedent doesn’t matter, but, 90+% of the time, it does.
I agree that “The Revenant” isn’t on the level as the examples I listed and that precedents do matter the vast majority of the time. I’m just saying that right now, a lot of buzz is circling “The Revenant.” I think that’s helping it — again, right now — and it’s sitting pretty. But we’re still five weeks and three guild ceremonies away from Oscar night, so who knows, right?
If this were any other year, I think even without a screenplay nomination “The Revenant” would be the one beat, hands down. But with that knock — and it’s a big knock since only seven previous films (four from the first six years) won Best Picture without its script getting noticed — and the fact that Inarritu won three Oscars last year will be too much to overcome.
I’m still predicting it for four or five for now, but I’m not expecting that to hold up past the weekend (with PGA announcing). And personally, it’s probably around four or five of the eight nominees. My dark horse pick at the Oscars is “Room” (I’d love a four for four night) mainly because Abrahamson came from out of nowhere (and that has to mean something, right???), but I’m sure it’ll be “Spotlight” or “The Big Short” at the end of the day.
I’m not a big believer in buzz that isn’t translated into stats. If it wins PGA, then I’ll start believing the buzz. 🙂 Could happen, but I don’t really see it. I’d be surprised, though, of course, not shocked. As for rankings, it’s around 6th out of 8 for me, and the lowest one I actually liked.
Abrahamson’s nomination means they liked Room, clearly, but it still didn’t get an editing nomination, and it still doesn’t have the PGA nomination, the DGA nomination… So, the most logical conclusion is that Abrahamson got in in 5th place, in a close race with the ones that were left out (Scott, Spielberg, possibly Haynes) – that’s what I deduce from the sum of all of those clues, especially considering that the other four that got in are the directors of the four BP favorites. So I don’t think, ultimately, that the surprise noms Room got indicate real BP winning chances, but most likely just that it’s the most liked from among those with no such chances. But, of course, one never knows…
Anyway, stats-wise, it should definitely be either The Big Short or Spotlight. Which has been true more or less the whole time, ever since the SAG nominations were announced. All this talk of The Revenant and Fury Road and such is probably just a diversion. If the stats hold, that is.
Oh, I was being about 99% facetious with the Abrahamson comment. He’s got no chance since the last time a director not nominated for the DGA won Best Director at the Oscars was in 1947 — which was a year before the DGA started handing out kudos, so of course, that renders the stat meaningless.
Yeah, I agree with the stats holding caveat. When it comes to the Oscars I always say that the stats matter until they don’t. “Birdman” and “Argo” being prime examples (Editing and Director, respectively) from the past few years.
Yeah, but, like I said, when you have at least one stat going against every movie, it’s inevitable that at least one stat will miss. I was talking about the stats for whatever will be the favorite when all precursors have spoken holding up (that’s what I meant by the stats holding – the movie with the smallest statistical obstacles winning, because that’s the best case scenario) – the ones going against it will, inevitably, have to not hold up, or else the more numerous ones going against one of the others. Some stats will definitely be readjusting their percentages this year…
But it’s important to me that the movie being given by the weighing of all stats going against all contenders is the one to win, in the end. Because I like the stats, I believe in them, and I want them to hold. Always have. If that movie will be Spotlight – all the better! (For me.) If it’s something else, but Spotlight still has a realistic chance after the guilds (by winning SAG, for example, but losing the other two to The Big Short), then I’ll be torn…
Luckily, in the two most unclear years in recent memory, Birdman and 12 Years a Slave both overcame initial handicaps (American Hustle was probably ahead of 12 Years a Slave at one point, and Birdman was behind after the editing snub) by winning the PGA and jumping ahead of everything, and maintaining that lead all the way to the win. Those were my favorites in those two races, so I’ve not yet been put in a spot where I’ve had to predict against my favorite. (Not since I know all of the relevant stats and can make an informed prediction, at least.) That might happen this year, as I’m probably due. But, hopefully, I can dodge one more bullet… (I’d like things to be clear as soon as possible. I don’t want to have false hopes for Spotlight – if it’s in it by the 28th, then I want it to win. If not, I want it to be obvious well before the Oscars that it’s not winning.)
I am going with the two films which have screenplay and SAG ensemble nominations. Would the Academy make Innaritu two BD winner with like Spielberg, Clint Eastwood and Ang Lee? Innaritu really that good? It just seems unlikely to reward Innaritu when he’s not done many great works and especially after he won three Oscars last year.
He is THAT good. Some people also compare him to Stanley
Kubrick.
I’ve never heard anybody compare him Stanley Kubrick. I’ve heard some people compare him to Terrence Malick but in a flattering way. He’s no Cuaron never mind Kubrick. BTW, Kubrick never won BD Oscar.
Then some people are clearly insane.
Where have you been seeing this ?
Read the last paragraph:
http://variety.com/gallery/contenders-directors-on-directors-2/#!20/undefined/
Variety also has a profile of Lubezki. But since he doesn’t like to do video interviews, Variety talked to top cinematographers, such as John Seale and Roger Deakins, about Chivo’s work.
https://variety.com/video/the-revenant-cinematography-emmanuel-lubezki/
lol
Remember, Oliver Stone won 2 directing Oscars in very close proximity to each other, but his long-term legacy has not supported being included in that pantheon you mentioned, so it is possible to be highly thought of by the Academy in the moment without necessarily having history embrace you the same way in hindsight.
Yes, but that year the BP winner wasn’t nominated so they went with Stone. I don’t think the eventual BP winner this year is missing a BD nomination, so it’s unlikely that they give BD to Innaritu as a default choice like Stone in 1990. I think TR has to win BP for Innaritu to win and if he wins BD, I don’t see how his film will not also win BP. Five Oscars in two years? It just looks ridiculous!
i pick the revenant for the producers guild award. why? because the producers role in this film was exceptionally difficult yet wildly successful.
from a time magazine article about saul zaentz entitled ‘What Does a Producer Do, Anyway’: “A producer may do any or all of these: find the literary property (a novel, play or original script), shape the idea into a viable film, raise the money, hire the director, choose the cast, oversee production and postproduction, mastermind the marketing, negotiate the worldwide rights” … as well as generating the awards buzz.
not only did the pre-production take years, this was probably one of the most challenging films in history in terms of its production, and finally, post-production (in terms of the producers role) has been outstanding: great marketing and box office with numerous nominations and awards. the revenant is a phenomenal achievement in producing.
Just listen to this and you’ll know why The Revenant will win the PGA.
https://youtu.be/NeEy9JZ3AuA
also, this award is about the producers voting to select the best-produced film, it’s not a general voting body picking a best picture. past winners have really reflected what could reasonably be favorite work by a producer performing their role.
this is why i think revenant will win and not big short. what pushed the big short over the top was its editing, direction, and performances. what pushed revenant over the top was its producers and director, then performances and cinematography.
The Revenant is way over budget and they got so lucky. I think it should awards for its best promotion and marketing of a movie as that is the best thing about it.
If longest/biggest/hardest production is what matters to PGA then Mad Max will win. However, it’s more complicated than that.
The Revenant could definitely win this. Doesn’t mean it’s taking the Oscar too… (Though most will think that’s the case, I imagine.)
Everyone and especially Sasha have been writing off The Revenant from the get go. Too divisive, too brutal, too male. What I will say to that – is that she is right. Divisive movies DON’T win Best Picture but GREAT movies DO! The Revenant has overperformed ACROSS the board – it got 3 Golden Globes Wins (that no one predicted). It got the 12 Oscar Nominations (I was like the only guy that predicted that). And it’s already at $100 mil. + domestic after literally 10 days.
Sasha didn’t even bother writing a piece about “The Case for The Revenant” – that is how much she despises (ahem – “loves”) the film. But that’s ok.
I will wait until the PGA announces – but don’t be surprised if Alejandro G. Inarritu makes history by becoming the only director ever to win back to back Oscars for both Best Picture and Best Director.
Not bothering to write about a film doesn’t mean she hates it, it could just be that she doesn’t like and prefers other films. You can’t accuse her of being biased while you’re on here everyday stanning for “The Revenant”. We’re all individuals. We ARE all different.
Well, her praise for The Big Short is also a bit suspicious.
We all know that she was a HUGE proponent of The Martian but as soon as Ridley
Scott was snubbed for Best Director, all of her attention shifted to The Big
Short. It’s a bit concerning. At least I am sticking with The Revenant until
the bitter end.
She is a huge fan of “The Martian” but it doesn’t look like that will so she backing TBS which she also love but has a big chance to win.” The Martian” is still her favourite film but TBS is her favourite of the possible winners.
Sasha did a very positive review of the Revenant. As always she pushes the films she liked best
She was also praising and predicting 12 Years a Slave the year it won… She’s not bound to be wrong on all of these things – far from it.
I’ll echo Sasha and am predicting The Big Short to pop Spotlight’s bubble this Saturday. “It’s time to call bullshit!”
That’s a surprise!… 🙂 You could easily be right, of course. I’m 50/50 right now (though… see above for which of them I’m leaning towards!)
Mad Max, baby.
Are we doing NGNG here ? Then Bridge of Spies as PGA winners.
Mad Max to shock the world and take it
Heartwarming that people on this site have such a high regard of Mad Max’s chances. Hope it goes to Spotlight.. my favourtie among the top 3.
It’s definitely going to Brooklyn. :p
Very close race this year among the 4 frontrunners it seems. I have the feeling that PGA and BP will go to TR.
The only movie that stands out is the Revenant because it is not trying to be an oscar movie.It’s just what it is … The same can be said for Fury Road..The Revenant is just a masterpiece .The Big Short is just too all over the place and Spotlight is boring.
Not trying to be an Oscar movie?! The Revenant?! Seriously??
I think the main reason the old statistics don’t apply this year is the combination of everybody giving out their awards too early (the year ends Dec 31 not Nov15 people!) and so many important movies released so late.
They will apply.
I’m gonna go out on a crazy ‘No Guts, No Glory’ itch. I’m predicting Mad Max: Fury Road to win.
The Revenant will win.