Predictions Friday: There Still is No Captain of This Ship

Even when people complain about what a bad year it’s been for film — and believe it or not, some do — the same films often trip off their tongue. “Except,” they say, “for Spotlight.” Usually they include a variety of other names that keep popping up, especially “The Big Short,” which is gaining momentum by the day as word of mouth spreads and people give a second look (it can’t all be gotten in one go). Whatever the other options — Mad Max or The Martian or Carol or Star Wars — the only film no one disagrees on is Spotlight. It has no haters. It doesn’t even have the exhausted inevitability Boyhood had last year. It has “I know nothing about what the pundits are saying but have you seen Spotlight?”

Still, there’s a lesson to be taken from last year’s Birdman surprise — and that’s the notion that for the first time in a long while a film that didn’t make us feel all cuddly and optimistic won Best Picture. What we saw last year with Birdman’s win was anger and frustration driving its industry sweep. Anger at the current state of Hollywood’s surrender to superhero movies and tentpoles, frustration at being put in a box of what they “should” pick for Best Picture. Their Birdman vote was as much a vote against poor, harmless Boyhood as it was toward defending the industry against its inevitable fate.

So far, Spotlight has avoided Boyhood’s fate of being thought of as the big lumbering frontrunner instead of the little movie that could. Spotlight is sitting pretty with a likable cast, a likable director, no scandals anywhere, nothing offensive about it, and to top it all off, it hasn’t swept the critics the way Mad Max has, thus removing any sort of frontrunner stigma it might have had. Voters won’t choose it — or resist choosing it — because they have to or are being forced to. They’ll choose it because it’s still the only film in this year’s field that most people can agree upon as the best.

The Big Short, however, presents a few problems for Spotlight. One is that it’s also an ensemble piece and could MAYBE trump Spotlight at SAG. The second is that it’s a studio movie (Paramount) up against an independent (Open Road). The third is that it has actors who are getting nominated by critics groups and may also get nominated for the Oscar — namely Christian Bale in supporting and Steve Carell in lead. But biggest of all for The Big Short is that it’s timely. In an election where the hip and cool liberals are defining their individuality by “feeling the Bern,” they can attach themselves to The Big Short (even if they are misinterpreting it slightly) and join in the chorus of anti-Wall Street, anti-billionaire sentiment. The Big Short connects voters to the pulse beat of the right now.

What hurts The Big Short is that it’s a late-breaker. No film since Million Dollar Baby has won Best Picture when it broke after October. The second thing is that it isn’t easy to get all in one take, which is what a Best Picture winner usually requires. Most people don’t spend the time getting to know a movie before voting for it. They take what’s on the first page. The most complex winners in history, like The Departed or No Country for Old Men (which only get better and better with each viewing) won partly because their directors were owed. Also because in both those films there is a top layer that can be grasped on first viewing, if that’s as deep as a viewer wants to go. There is no doubt in my mind that The Big Short will go down as one of the best films of this year, maybe of this decade but it’s a movie you have to get to know. The more you endeavor to understand what’s happening, the more you can appreciate what makes it so good. That said, there are plenty of people who will pretend they know what it’s about (“Wall Street BAD!” “Feel the Bern!”) and vote for it based just on the dynamics of the acting. The only stat rule a Big Short win would break would be the late-breaking release.

Either way, The Big Short still looks like Spotlight’s only viable challenger, at least for Best Picture. Once we move past Best Picture, the most likely scenario is still the Best Director — Tom McCarthy — winning along with Best Picture. If you look at the past twenty years you’ll find that splits are really rare. It happened in 2000, when Ridley Scott did not win Best Director because there were two strong competing films — Traffic and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. It happened again in 2002 – The Pianist came up from behind and surprised everyone by winning Best Director, Screenplay and Actor.

It happened again, (in)famously, in 2005, when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain’s expected Best Picture win — which has given Ang Lee the dubious honor of winning Best Director twice but seeing both his films relinquish the top honor. It happened in 2012 and 2013. The first because there wasn’t an option to give Ben Affleck the directing Oscar, and so far only 2013 was a split people saw coming from a mile away; since Affleck wasn’t possible, Ang Lee won again. The following year, it was agreed that Gravity was winning Best Director. That much was clear. 12 Years a Slave, though, had too much heat to make history as the first film by a black director to win BP, as well as the first told from the point of view of black characters.

This year it looks like many people are predicting a split again. The wins are coming down like a split, but unlike 2013, there is no clear best director frontrunner. Ridley Scott won with the National Board of Review, George Miller won with the Los Angeles Film Critics for Mad Max and Todd Haynes won with the New York Film Critics. Whichever director wins the Golden Globe, or the Critics Choice could signal an upcoming split, especially if something else wins Best Picture.

For this reason, I’m not yet seeing a split year coming. There is too much division in the ranks as to whom might benefit. With the popularity of The Martian, some say Ridley Scott is overdue. Others say no way, George Miller is the more impressive. There’s Todd Haynes, who has never won nor even been nominated. At this point I’m going to have to murder my darlings and predict a united Picture and Director win. Though I do have a suspicion that The Big Short and Adam McKay could win over the bigger guilds and surprise us all at the PGA, DGA and SAG, I’m still sticking with Spotlight since it continues to be the film most people can agree on as best.

Moving on to the acting categories, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant and Brie Larson for Room seem to be the frontrunners heading into the race. I don’t see anyone challenging Larson at the moment, both because Room is so popular too (David Edelstein just chose it as his number one film of the year) and because hers is a distinctly memorable and emotional performance. But if Brooklyn manages a Best Picture nomination, or if it shows up unexpectedly in other categories, it will be time to re-evaluate. DiCaprio, though, I suspect is a little vulnerable for a few reasons. I think he deserves to win without question, but I think he’s vulnerable to the likes of Bryan Cranston for Trumbo and, even more so, Steve Carell for The Big Short if he gets a nomination.

The Big Short has buzz, there is no doubt about it, but we won’t know just how much the Academy likes it until we see what nominations it gets and where.

The supporting categories are wide, wide open. There really is no frontrunner in either category. In the Supporting Actress race, it’s not even been decided who will end up there and who will go lead. Many of us are holding out hope that Sylvester Stallone gets in for Creed. Even just a nomination to honor that wonderful performance in that wonderful film would be something. Here’s hoping the Academy’s branch of actors go there because it would make for one hell of a telecast. He also deserves the fuck out of that nomination.

What we know for sure:

Spotlight is winning Original Screenplay.

Son of Saul is winning Best Foreign Language Feature.

Inside Out is winning Animated Feature.

What we think could be true:

Spotlight is winning Best Picture, with Tom McCarthy winning Best Director (3 Oscars total, unless it wins for Score or Editing)

Mad Max could win Director, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Production Design, maybe Editing (could be the big winner in terms of total number of nominations and wins)

The Big Short could win Editing and Adapted Screenplay, could upset in Picture and Director, Actor

The Revenant could win Actor and maybe Cinematography

The Martian could win Director, maybe Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, maybe Adapted Screenplay

Room could win Actress, maybe Supporting Actor, maybe Adapted Screenplay

Bridge of Spies could win Supporting Actor, Production Design

The Force Awakens could win Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, maybe Production Design — it goes up against Mad Max for the techs.

Or in other words, there is no there there yet. Just a lot of maybes. There is no captain — just a vague idea of which direction the ship is headed.

Predictions as of today.

Best Picture

Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Room
Straight Outta Compton
The Force Awakens
Beasts of No Nation
Brooklyn
Creed
Sicario
Trumbo

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (or Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl)
Matt Damon, The Martian (or Johnny Depp, Black Mass)

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Cate Blanchett, Carol and/or Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years; or Charlize Theron, Mad Max

Supporting Actor

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Jacob Tremblay, Room or Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight or Michael Keaton, Spotlight (too competitive for both to get in) or Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Supporting Actress

Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina or The Danish Girl
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Helen Mirren, Trumbo; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight, Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria