The State of the Race: Because Sometimes the Pundits Get It Wrong

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain

The Oscar beat requires being comfortable with getting it wrong sometimes. Holding on to being right will cause nothing but pain and misery. This has been such an unpredictable year so far, in many respects, that the pundits are chasing the voters as opposed to the voters following the pundits’ lead. It is perhaps presumptuous to think anyone ever pays attention to the insular chatter in our circles, but truth be told we’ve become a bit complacent in the estimation of our own ability to help steer the ship. Awards cycles like this and days like today are a good reminder that often, we don’t.

We were thrown first by the SAG Awards Ensemble nominations wherein many films we thought were shoo-ins turned out to be not. We were next thrown by the Editors Guild noms because Spotlight, the Best Picture frontrunner, was absent. We were again thrown by the Art Directors Guild and now the Producers Guild when Carol was left off both lists. We’ve been surprised to see Sicario make such a strong showing at in the guild nominations so far.

As right as some of us have been about the year in some respects — Scott Feinberg predicted Straight Outta Compton when people like me wouldn’t give it the time of day; Kris Tapley expressed some trepidation with Carol’s automatic inclusion into the race — we can just as easily be wrong about our predictions. We never really know until the awards come down. In fact, this is such a year that we really have NO IDEA how the Oscar votes will land.

There are a few things to take away from the PGA announcement today that may or may not matter:

1. The Oscars and PGA have roughly the same number of voters – 6,000 give or take for each group. They are voting at the virtually same time. They both use the preferential ballot. The PGA voters get ten slots, where Oscar voters only get five to nominate. That is probably going to make SOME difference this year, being that it’s so all over the place.
2. The Oscars and PGA are filling out their ballots at the same time. That means their momentum shifts are likely going to be similar. That means there isn’t that much time for enough voters to change the order of their predictions to, say, get Carol in, or even to push harder for Star Wars: The Force Awakens to get in. If they’ve all voted, their results will probably be somewhat close to the outcome Producers Guild.
3. There will naturally still be differences in the choices between guilds. Each branch nominates their favorites — thus the Producers Guild can only really give us an idea of Best Picture, whereas SAG-AFTRA is a better predictor of the acting categories.
4. Star Wars’ record-breaking top-of-the-box-office news is fairly recent, like within the last couple of days – not enough time to send a ripple effect through the industry of shock and awe. That’s perhaps why it didn’t make the PGA list.
5. At the end of the day, votes are anonymous. They don’t attach their names to the voting so you are getting a mostly honest take of what they like and don’t, take it for what it is.

The takeaway today, given that we’ve now heard from several guilds, is that The Big Short is likely going to give Spotlight a run for its money in terms of what movie can win, but we already knew that. The Big Short is the only film with SAG Awards Ensemble + ACE Eddie + PGA nominations. No film since 1995 has ever won Best Picture without those three. That doesn’t make it a long shot to win — it makes it a serious contender to win. It also has a Globes nomination for screenplay. The only thing The Big Short has going against it is that it wasn’t released at Telluride or Toronto or Cannes. In every other respect, it has what every Best Picture winner needs. Some have said, “It’s too confusing.” And that may be true, but this year of all years people understand the take-away: “Wall Street bad.” Anyone who carefully considers what The Big Short is about will be richly rewarded, but it probably isn’t a requirement that people fully understand it before they can like it.

In general, the PGA matches 7 out of a possible 9 or 10 eventual Oscar nominees. You could probably say this year’s race, were there five only, might go:

Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant or Bridge of Spies

It’s really hard to tell where their passion choices lie and that is what you’re looking for. That is six right there. We are looking for one or two more from among the following:

Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Sicario

Find the one movie that the Academy will like the most and that is your 7th Best Picture contender. You might be able to squeeze out one more and get 8. It’s possible you could get 9 or 10 as well.

What did the ACE Eddies also like?
The Force Awakens
Sicario

What did the SAG Awards Ensemble also like?
Trumbo
Beasts of No Nation

Which films are seen to be struggling to show up at the guilds?
Carol
Room

When we see a film suddenly show up on Oscar’s list — like Selma or Philomena or Amour — they aren’t always backed up by broader guild support because their champions are a much smaller group of people. And that, my friends, is where Carol benefits. That is why I think, actually, either Carol or Room or Beasts of No Nation could still show up at the Oscars because they might have a smaller but very passionate group of advocates. Thus, a reasonable prediction for Best Picture might look like:

Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton
Brooklyn
Carol

Stay tuned for WGA nominations tomorrow and — the big one – the DGA nominations on the 12th.

Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar

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Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar

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EXACT MATCH

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