It might not seem exciting to the average person, but here in awards world we’re waiting on one movie to break up many of the stats upon which we rely to figure out what will win Best Picture. There are two schools of thought when it comes to Oscar predicting. The first is to go on gut and intuition — or to sometimes pad that by speaking to actual voters (which can often be misleading). Intuition says that you jut feel the buzz. You can’t really explain why. You either feel it or you suspect it or you want it really really bad. The second method is to go by stats. Not just any stats, but the informative stats that are based on things like the number of people voting, the kinds of people voting, and the reasons why they are choosing what they choose. I have to admit that this year has confounded both methods. Intuition, because the pundits have been mostly wrong from the outset. And stats, because if pundits are right, this could be the year the stats all went to shit. Like credit default swaps shit.
There are three movies now that can win Best Picture: Spotlight, The Big Short and The Revenant.
This is a year unlike any we’ve seen since the preferential ballot was put in place in 2009, which means it has been an unpredictable year in an unpredictable way. If Boyhood was part of an unpredictable year, it was unpredictable in a predictable way: Boyhood was thought to be the presumptive winner until Birdman won the PGA. Once that happened, it became a done deal because Birdman then won the SAG Ensemble award and the DGA, just like Argo had in 2012. The one thing Birdman didn’t win, though, was the BAFTA for Best Picture, marking the first time since the preferential ballot was put in place at the PGA that they didn’t match. This could be because BAFTA voters hadn’t yet caught the last minute surge of Birdman’s unpredictable bounce in the end game, or it could be they just couldn’t believe the Best Picture was going to Birdman. Either way, the end result was the end result.
So why didn’t they go for Birdman? Well, the Boyhood momentum was big everywhere except within the American industry — perhaps, more precisely, the American movie awards industry — where there was a push-back to “stop Boyhood at all costs,” or for voters to say “it wasn’t THAT good,” or “I wanted something to happen but it never did.”
Looking back on it, the reasons why Birdman beat Boyhood are more obvious, but at the time it didn’t “feel” that way. The BAFTA voters aren’t exactly like Oscar voters. They are a little less consensus-oriented. They tend to split their votes up more among many fine films than the Academy voters do. The reason for this may comes down to the Oscar’s expanded Best Picture ballot. With more movies, the nominations and wins are more likely to come from Best Picture nominees (something like 80+%). With only five Best Picture nominees, that’s impossible — with only 5 BP nominees, there aren’t enough filmmakers to fill up all the categories. Thus, the BAFTA voters tend to spread the wealth a little more. Boyhood was a film they didn’t have to resent because it was made outside the studio system — all the American films are outside the British studio system. They don’t seem to sympathize with one of Birdman’s thematic laments: that Hollywood is being overtaken by Superhero movies. In the UK and elsewhere, they enjoy our imported blockbusters without a grudge, because they don’t threaten their film industry so much. Birdman was all but shut out at the BAFTAs last year. Despite having ten nominations, Birdman won only cinematography.
From 2009 through 2013, the BAFTA always agreed with the Academy’s choice for Best Picture, even splitting Picture and Director in 2013 the same way, giving Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave and Director to Alfonso Cuaron. The last time the two groups didn’t agree was when the BAFTA chose Atonement (which had also won the Golden Globe), over No Country for Old Men, which eventually won the Oscar.
The BAFTA changed their schedule in 2000 so that their awards ceremony could be held before Oscar Night. They changed their voting procedures in mid-2012 (new rules which took effect in 2013) to more closely mirror the way the Academy does it. Branches (or “chapters”) choose the nominees for their corresponding categories, and the entire membership chooses the winners. (Strangely enough, for years they did it in reverse: the entire membership would help chose the nominees in every category, and then the experts in each BAFTA chapter would choose the winners.) Before 2012 they had a complicated three-stage process. First, longlists of 15 choices were named for each category; next, these were narrowed down to shortlists of 5 choices per category, and finally, in the 3rd stage, voters would select the winner. Now they have only two rounds of voting — they skip the initial longlist altogether and go directly 5 nominees per category as the Oscars have done for over 80 years. The process for choosing Best Picture at the BAFTAs has remained unchanged from 2000 to now — every BAFTA member votes on the Best Picture nominees, every member votes on the winners.
The problem here is the same problem we encounter with the SAG Ensemble award and the DGA award: the BAFTA, too, tabulates its ballots by simple plurality — the film with the highest total number of votes wins after one round of counting. And they still have only five Best Picture nominees. The Oscars, of course, can now have 7, 8, 9 or the mythical 10 nominees for Best Picture and use the preferential process to redistribute ballots until a film reaches a majority of support. Even with 8 nominees, the Oscar system is dramatically different from, say, the PGA vote which has 10.
With all this divergence in the voting processes, we will likely and understandably still be in the dark, even after the BAFTAs weigh in with their choice for Best Picture. We’ve only seen one competition where the circumstances were similar — that’s the DGA, where Spotlight (SAG winner) went up against The Revenant and The Big Short (PGA winner). The Revenant’s Alejandro González Iñárritu came out the winner with the DGA. Thus, it seems semi-likely that 6,000 or so BAFTA members will choose the same movie 17,000 DGA members did; Spotlight was not competing with The Revenant at SAG.
Complicating matters even further, Iñárritu and Birdman didn’t win at BAFTA last year, which might mean they will win this year. There will be no BAFTA voters thinking: “Well, he already won, just a year ago.” If The Revenant wins Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTA, that along with the DGA may point to an upcoming Revenant blow-out at the Oscars.
You might say, well that’s a no-brainer. The Oscar race is over. And it might be. There is a snag, however. There is always a snag.
No film has ever won Best Picture at the BAFTAs without a screenplay nomination, going way way way back (to 1989). Who knows if this matters this year? We will find out in four days, won’t we?
Many will say, “Well, it’s not surprising that The Revenant’s screenplay was overlooked; it doesn’t have much dialogue.” That reasoning doesn’t hold water, because Gravity and The Artist both had BAFTA screenplay nominations and they had even less dialogue than The Revenant. Why would a lack of a screenplay nomination matter? Simply because great films are almost always built on a great story and memorable dialogue. Is The Revenant a good story or is it more of a good “experience”? We’ll find out whether the story matters or not in terms of Best Picture, or whether the “experience” can carry it over to the win.
Iñárritu, it seems to me, has the halo effect going on — meaning, he’s handsome, he’s talented, he’s everything that every man in Hollywood wants to be. He’s making films everyone in Hollywood wants to make. Those kinds of icons aren’t born every day. Will the halo effect carry him and The Revenant to a big win without the crucial screenplay nomination? It might. Odds are, it will.
The BAFTA has only nominated one film this year in Picture, Director and Screenplay that matches the Oscars — Adam McKay’s The Big Short. Though it is strong on story, complexity, humor, acting, editing and directing, it has been deemed by many to be “too smart” or “too confusing” for the masses. The Big Short won at the ACE Eddies in the comedy category, while Mad Max: Fury Road, not The Revenant, took the Drama win. The Big Short most significantly won the PGA on a preferential ballot — the only other preferential ballot in the race besides the Oscars.
But it isn’t like The Big Short has won much outside those two awards. The critics didn’t warm to it, the industry has partly warmed to it. But what it seems to have right now, at least in an American sense, is that it addresses the breakdown of the American dream itself. It’s the best “fiddle while Rome burns” film that has ever been made about our American idiocy. What was happening while our attentions were focused elsewhere? Oh, nothing. Just the near collapse of the worldwide financial system and the entire American economy.
The resentment over the 2008 financial collapse and the subsequent bailout is the flame under this year’s presidential election. The Big Short, unfortunately, has been co-opted by many supporters of Bernie Sanders, which may or may not help it on a competitive preferential ballot, especially if Hollywood types like Susan Sarandon and Michael Moore think it would help the Sanders campaign by naming this film as Best Picture.
Still, that kind of surge vote doesn’t help on a preferential ballot. The movie has to be liked and loved in equal amounts. Loved: to get the #1 votes. Liked: to place high on a ballot even if it isn’t #1. For Oscar, The Revenant really has to come in with an astonishing number of #1 votes to win in the first round of balloting. If it can’t get a substantial number of votes in the first round of counting, ballots from eliminated nominees will be redistributed and we suspect most will go to other less polarizing films. And that is where The Revenant may have trouble. It’s simply not a #2 film. It’s either a #1 film with a voter, or else it’s going much lower ranked.
Spotlight has no Best Director nomination at the BAFTAs. Although their voting process has changed, having no directing nomination there, and especially no preferential ballot, might make it harder to benefit from a surge vote. But the mentality in the final phase of voting changes slightly from the way voters think when choosing nominees. Once you have an idea of what films can win, the vote for the winner comes down to that. People who don’t like The Big Short or The Revenant might pick Spotlight, even without a directing nomination.
I find myself in that stubborn place of denial where I think it’s probably going to be The Revenant but something keeps me from predicting it whole hog. Maybe it’s because I love the Big Short so much and I actively want it to win. Or maybe it’s because no SAG Ensemble nomination + no BAFTA/Oscar screenplay nominations have always been insurmountable roadblocks for winning Best Picture, regardless.
The only thing on the line for me is shame and humiliation from my colleagues. The question is whether I’m up for it or not. If I am up for it, I’ll predict the PGA winner to win both the BAFTA and Oscar’s Best Picture. If I’m not up for it, I will hide behind a Revenant prediction because if I’m wrong no one will say “she only picked it because she liked it.” If I pick The Revenant and I’m right, no harm, no foul. But it won’t matter that much, except to have dodged a shame and humiliation drive-by, since so many others will be predicting The Revenant. If I stick with The Big Short, and no one else is predicting it, and by some weird fluke it wins? Well, that’s a higher payout on a riskier bet. Here’s Selena Gomez to explain. Just kidding.
Fair warning. Don’t you be like me. Long time readers of this site know that most of the time when I put my heart on the line I crash and burn. I don’t want to take you down with me.
Either which way, here are our BAFTA predictions, for better or worse. A couple of things to note – last year, Whiplash won both Sound and Editing at BAFTAs before going on to win both those categories at the Oscars. The Imitation Game did not win adapted screenplay. The Theory of Everything did. Even though Birdman came in with the most BAFTA nominations compared to Boyhood, it still did not win anything except Cinematography, before going on to win Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography at the Oscars.
BEST FILM
“The Big Short,” Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Brad Pitt <— predicted winner, Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
“Bridge of Spies,” Kristie Macosko Krieger, Marc Platt, Steven Spielberg
“Carol,” Elizabeth Karlsen, Christine Vachon, Stephen Woolley
“The Revenant,” Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Arnon Milchan, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon
“Spotlight,” Steve Golin, Blye Pagon Faust, Nicole Rocklin, Michael Sugar
DIRECTOR
“The Big Short,” Adam McKay
“Bridge of Spies,” Steven Spielberg
“Carol,” Todd Haynes
“The Martian,” Ridley Scott
“The Revenant,” Alejandro G. Inarritu <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Bridge of Spies,” Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
“Ex Machina,” Alex Garland <—predicted winner, Flores
“The Hateful Eight,” Quentin Tarantino
“Inside Out,” Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg Lefauve
“Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer <—predicted winner, Stone
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Big Short,” Adam McKay, Charles Randolph <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Brooklyn,” Nick Hornby
“Carol,” Phyllis Nagy
“Room,” Emma Donoghue
“Steve Jobs,” Aaron Sorkin
LEADING ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant” <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
LEADING ACTRESS
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Brie Larson, “Room” <—predicted winner, Stone
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Maggie Smith, “The Lady in the Van”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn” <—predicted winner, Flores
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro, “Sicario”
Christian Bale, “The Big Short” <—predicted winner, Stone
Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies” <—predicted winner, Flores
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Alicia Vikander, “Ex Machina” <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Julie Walters, “Brooklyn”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
ORIGINAL MUSIC
“Bridge of Spies,” Thomas Newman
“The Hateful Eight,” Ennio Morricone <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“The Revenant,” Ryuichi Sakamoto, Carsten Nicolai
“Sicario,” Johann Johannsson
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” John Williams
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Bridge of Spies,” Janusz Kaminski
“Carol,” Ed Lachman
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” John Seale
“The Revenant,” Emmanuel Lubezki <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Sicario,” Roger Deakins
EDITING
“The Big Short,” Hank Corwin <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Bridge of Spies,” Michael Kahn
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Margaret Sixel
“The Martian,” Pietro Scalia
“The Revenant,” Stephen Mirrione
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Bridge of Spies,” Adam Stockhausen, Rena Deangelo
“Carol,” Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler <—predicted winner, Stone
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson <—predicted winner, Flores
“The Martian,” Arthur Max, Celia Bobak
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales
COSTUME DESIGN
“Brooklyn,” Odile Dicks-Mireaux
“Carol,” Sandy Powell <–predicted winner, Stone
“Cinderella,” Sandy Powell <–predicted winner, Flores
“The Danish Girl,” Paco Delgado
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Jenny Beavan
MAKEUP & HAIR
“Brooklyn,” Morna Ferguson, Lorraine Glynn
“Carol,” Jerry Decarlo, Patricia Regan
“The Danish Girl,” Jan Sewell
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin <—predicted winner, Flores
“The Revenant,” Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini <—predicted winner, Stone
SOUND
“Bridge of Spies,” Drew Kunin, Richard Hymns, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Scott Hecker, Chris Jenkins, Mark Mangini, Ben Osmo, Gregg Rudloff, David White <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“The Martian,” Paul Massey, Mac Ruth, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor
“The Revenant,” Lon Bender, Chris Duesterdiek, Martin Hernandez, Frank A. Montano, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Matthew Wood, Stuart Wilson
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
“Ant-Man,” Jake Morrison, Greg Steele, Dan Sudick, Alex Wuttke
“Ex Machina,” Mark Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, Andrew Whitehurst <—predicted winner, Stone
“Mad Max: Fury Road,” Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Tom Wood, Andy Williams <—predicted winner, Flores
“The Martian,” Chris Lawrence, Tim Ledbury, Richard Stammers, Steven Warner
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
“The Assassin,” Hou Hsiao-Hsien
“Force Majeure,” Ruben Ostlund
“Theeb,” Naji Abu Nowar, Rupert Lloyd <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Timbuktu,” Abderrahmane Sissako
“Wild Tales,” Damian Szifron
DOCUMENTARY
“Amy,” Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Cartel Land,” Matthew Heineman, Tom Yellin
“He Named Me Malala,” Davis Guggenheim, Walter Parkes, Laurie Macdonald
“Listen to Me Marlon,” Stevan Riley, John Battsek, George Chignell, R.J. Cutler
“Sherpa,” Jennifer Peedom, Bridget Ikin, John Smithson
ANIMATED FILM
“Inside Out,” Pete Docter <–predicted winner, Stone, Flores
“Minions,” Pierre Coffin, Kyle Balda
“Shaun the Sheep Movie,” Mark Burton, Richard Starzak
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
“45 Years,” Andrew Haigh, Tristan Goligher
“Amy,” Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees
“Brooklyn,” John Crowley, Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey, Nick Hornby <—predicted winner, Flores
“The Danish Girl,” Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Anne Harrison, Gail Mutrux, Lucinda Coxon
“Ex Machina,” Alex Garland, Andrew Macdonald, Allon Reich <—predicted winner, Stone
“The Lobster,” Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Efthimis Filippou
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Alex Garland (Director) “Ex Machina” <—predicted winner, Stone, Flores
Debbie Tucker Green (Writer/Director) “Second Coming”
Naji Abu Nowar (Writer/Director) Rupert Lloyd (Producer) “Theeb” – Alt, Stone
Sean Mcallister (Director/Producer), Elhum Shakerifar (Producer) “A Syrian Love Story”
Stephen Fingleton (Writer/Director) “The Survivalist”
You can take our contest!
Would love to see Carol take this as a kiss-off to the Oscars…
Things are so different in England. I lived there and went to school there and my father was British. What do they like? They like British films with British actors. So don’t be surprised if “The Danish Girl” sweeps in places you never thought of.
Like Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress. Leo and Brie Larson could both lose here to Eddie Redmayne and Alicia Vikander who is nominated here in lead for “The Danish Girl.”
She could also win in Supporting, too, for “Ex Machina.” Although this might be the one place where Rooney Mara wins, as she’s in Supporting here for “Carol.”
”They like British films with British actors.”
And yet BAFTA failed to nominate any for Best Film. 😉
Possibly because there’s an Outstanding British Film category..
Yeah, but plenty have been nominated for both in the past… The British flicks (like Brooklyn) most likely simply weren’t among their top 5 for Best Film, sadly.
Claudiu is correct. Last year, ”Theory of Everything” and ”Imitation Game” were up for both Best Film & Best British Film. For 2014, ”Gravity” and ”Philomena” were up for both Best Film & Best British Film. … This is the 1st time in a decade, all Best Film nominees are U.S.
Yeah, I really liked Brooklyn but wouldn’t put it in my Top 5.. It’s currently fighting for a spot in the lower end of my Top 10..
I do have it in my top 5. It’s 5th, but a pretty clear 5th (no threat from 6th place.)
I’m curious now, what are the others in ur list..?
In terms of best: 1. Spotlight 2. Inside Out 3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 4. Mad Max: Fury Road 5. Brooklyn. In terms of favorite, The Force Awakens is either first or second, and Brooklyn is at least fourth.
I watched both Spotlight & Fury Road a couple days ago and whilst they were good films, I didn’t get all the hype about them..
I LOVED Inside Out though.. And really enjoyed TFA..
What are ur other two favourites, if those are #1 & #4..?
Well, Spotlight and Inside Out. The lists don’t differ THAT much… 🙂
Glad that Brooklyn got honoured 🙂
Me too!
Just back from seeing Brooklyn. Now I know why many of you are going on about Ronan. What a terrific performance. Hope she gets a consolation BAFTA
If Ronan doesn’t get the BAFTA it will be a shame. I love Larson but Ronan is stunning.
Hammond still saying his PGA close vote theory was true:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHSrkl0vWis
Interesting that they challenge the view that TR won’t get many #2’s. They say that as voters are checking off director, actor, cinematography, they might recognise TR as the prestige film and give it #2
They also canvass the issue of number of nominations and say that the most recent exceptions to needing more than 7 noms to win, Crash and Departed, both had specific reasons to win.
Interesting
Ha. They also said a lot of other things, yet you seem to focus only on the TR’s positive chance.
Yes, because every time the negative stats are mentioned, the compensatory stats or factors are not.
Same thing happened last year with Birdman editing nom.
No SAG ensemble IS a negative but TR came late to SAG, marketed Leo and didn’t send out screeners. And the actors branch nominated Hardy, so it is liked by actors.
No screenplay nom IS a negative but the script is not the feature of the film, and big winner Titanic had a lot more dialogue and the two stories and still didn’t get nominated.
No screenplay IS a negative but 12 noms including 3-4 unexpected noms shows a lot of support
The won before thing IS a negative but DGA broke their history to award it.
TBS not winning DGA after PGA when only McKay and AGI had all the nods going in shows its vulnerable, but it is still favoured in my opinion.
Box office and buzz, the diversity issue and the suffering for your art factors are also in the mix
There’s no such thing as a compensatory stat.
“There’s no such thing as a compensatory stat.”
Exactly.
What you have there is subjective arguments (all either pure speculation or claims unsubstantiated by historical patterns) as to why The Revenant might win, IN SPITE OF the stats (which are not subjective, but pure math and correlation). There are no actual stats working for The Revenant except for the DGA win (yes, NONE – I stand by it; the Golden Globes have a horrible record). And even that one’s shaky, because of precedents such as Gravity.
No question, there are a few good subjective arguments, as well, for why The Revenant might win – but there are almost as many for why it probably won’t. But, as far as stats go, there are almost exclusively stats that say The Revenant won’t win (again, the DGA win being the only real exception.) Which is why there’s nothing else to mention for the “pros” column…
There’s no way for anybody to know if it was close or not other than unprovable hunches.
TR has made up a lot of ground for BP on Gurus O’Gold
Pre DGA- Spot 99, TBS 94, TR 77 (13 votes)
Post DGA- Spot 77, TBS 77, TR 76 (11 votes)
Close to a 3-way tie !!!
I’m having trouble finding the info, but maybe someone here knows: The BAFTAs are airing Sunday at 7:30 p.m. on BBC America, so what time is that here EST and PST? I thought I read somewhere that the broadcast airs an hour later. True or not? Why? And does anyone know if it’ll be live-streamed at YouTube or BAFTA? Thanks!
You can watch online on BBC One. http://www.stream2watch.co/live-tv/gb/bbc-1-live-stream (After you click to close the ads.) I believe it starts at 16:00 EST. I could be wrong – just did some quick math. Have no other confirmation.
Of course, that’s without the red carpet, but I understand that’ll be streamed live on BAFTA’s website, or something. 2 hours long, if I remember correctly.
Thanks, but that link didn’t work for me. It said I need to sign up for Donnaplay, even tho’ it was free, and I needed to give my credit-card number, etc., for a 5-day trial. …
No no no, no need for that… It works, you just need to close the right ads.
You hit PLAY first, there’s a pop-up. You close it. Then you hit PLAY again, and an ad goes on top of the player. You wait for the ‘close’ button to appear. You click it – there’s another pop-up, you close it – and then the channel plays. That’s how it is for me, at least… Works perfectly!
TR is a simple revenge story stretched out to two and half hours. TR is taking minimalism to a new height. Shivering, breathing hard and crawling in the dirt is now acting. There’s no point in having an epic film if you don’t have a good story, or even just a story. TR is an epic of emptiness. Enjoy the beautiful scenery but the fact is there’s no story. A few big scenes that look good in a trailer cannot make up for lack of depth.
No film has all the ticks this year.
If you had to choose between
– DGA WIN
– SAG nom
– WGA/screenplay nom
Which would you choose? I’ll take DGA win any day
huh! I see what you did there. TBS and “Spotlight” have both a SAG nom and WGA/Oscar, BAFTA Screenplay nom. They also won the PGA and SAG ensemble respectively. the DGA is the only thing TR fanboys can crow about.
As for what happened to Boyhood or Spotlight could be another thing we’ve seen of late (or of old, social network) – the industry predictors decide that a certain movie SHOULD win because THEY like it best and then are shocked when industry insiders disgree. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t advocate with our hearts or push our favorites (we should otherwise what’s they point) it only means that sometimes the whole Boyhood thing, the whole Social Network thing, was not a thing. It was made up by us and never really a thing for them. C’est la vie.
I still prefer my tastes over theirs 🙂
The screenplay stat can be misleading- there were at least 9 worthy nominees in that category so Revenant’s miss may be explained because it wasn’t as popular as the well known books that beat it. Artist and Gravity were in the always much thinner original race.
NOTE: I DO NOT think Revenant is gonna win but the reason for that is more intuition; a lot of people don’t like that movie. I just don’t trust stats as much given that every year now at least oneor two stats are broken
Not buying that. TR wasn’t nominated at WGA either where 2 of the Oscar nominees, Room and Brooklyn, were ineligible. Two empty spot chances to get in. It failed to do so. It was just not a worthy enough of a screenplay.
It’s too much of an iron clad stat to bet against so readily or flippantly, no film ever won BP w/o a nod from either WGA or Oscar since 1948’s Hamlet. And back then, there were no adapted screenplay category and Hamlet already had a pretty great story to begin with.
Well I’m definitely not betting against the stat because I think Revenant is too divisive to win as I said.
But still, a stat is just the past, a number. Even if it wasn’t considered a worthy screenplay with 600 members of the Academt not liking it, there’s members in many other branches who did aka Titanic etc.
I think the key is always the prefer tail ballot. What movie will be less divisive? Mad max out, Revenant out. Spotlight Room Brooklyn Big Short are less divisive. Stats from lather categories mean less if you do preferential math
Titanic got WGA nod. Stats are the past providing clues for the future.
It’s still perilous to ignore that Hollywood of late votes less cohesively than before. Remember the Editing stat? And the Argo/Director stat? Etc. stats are fun and cool and the reason we like the Oscars but when a voter likes a movie they don’t stop and wonder “wait did this get a best first production by a new director in a fantasy editing nod? Because if it didn’t then it can’t be the best!”
Of course, they don’t think like that. Stats show what AMPAS like to see in their BP winners. A film, small or large, with an intricate human story (and this reflects in the screenplay). Birdman got ACE Eddie nod, its absence at Oscar was explainable due to the one take thing. Argo/Director split has happened a few times in the past. It’s not as ironclad.
You can’t be dogmatic about stats. Birdman won without editing nom and Argo without director nom.
I love how people cite the screenplay stat over and over again but never, ever, talk about the 12 noms over performance and what this might mean
Yes, but as explained a million times already both those films were nominated by the ACE and DGA.
“Yes, but as explained a million times already”
At this point, I have to think he’s just trolling, to be honest…
“You can’t be dogmatic about stats. Birdman won without editing nom and Argo without director nom.”
But that was it. No other key industry noms missing for those two. (And both won PGA+SAG+DGA, by the way.) That’s the difference you keep not acknowledging, despite my explaining it over and over. NO MOVIE has won without TWO key industry nominations (in WGA’s case, when eligible, obviously) since at least 1996 (and I believe it’s actually a lot longer than that, but it’s harder for me to check that far back again – for 1996-today I already have a table). Simple as that… The Revenant has three (SAG Ensemble, Oscar screenplay, WGA.) Not even just two (just in case you want to dismiss one, for whatever reason) – THREE…
You CAN look at more than one stat at a time, you know…
“but never, ever, talk about the 12 noms over performance and what this might mean”
Because it means next to nothing. Stats-wise.
Yes the film is so disliked that it just broke DGA history by winning their large membership vote
It could win with 20pct + 1 vote in a plurality vote system and be disliked by 79pct of people.
I don’t know Academy members and I personally like all movies nominated except The Martian, so don’t take this personally :-). I just hear a lot of Revenant dislike from the people I know. Maybe they’re not representative of Hollywood in which case I’m super wrong and so be it! 🙂
The people I know, or the Academy members I spoke to, anecdotes are completely meaningless and often inaccurate.
They’re not meaningless in themselves. It’s just that it’s foolhardy to extrapolate from them.
“The Artist” was not just nominated everywhere for screenplay, it even won BAFTA. Despite not having a single spoken word, it was a great screenplay. Screenplays are more than just dialogue and TR missed everywhere because it doesn’t have a screenplay that is good enough. TR lacks depth and it doesn’t seem to have a point which is clearly down to a weak screenplay.TR is enjoyable if you leave your brain at door in the cinema.
I’ll be in London for the awards and I’m preparing everybody right now: there will be no real upsets. Everything will go pretty much as planned. But the Oscars are going to be so unpredictable you won’t be able to stand it. Hear me now my loyal subjects- for ALL will be awakened and dawn a new day with the winners on the 28th!!! The Martian is landing and it’s not stopping ! I have a hurricane inside me that defines the winds of this prediction ! Don’t be fooled.
Mike Fleming Jr. has a terrific interview at Deadline.com: Leonardo DiCaprio on the Hard-Knock Film Education That Led to ‘The Revenant’: Q&A. In it, DiCaprio reveals which movies and directors made him who he is; how James Dean’s performance in ”East of Eden” broke his heart; how his Alexander the Great film fell apart, etc.
Clearly, he’s a student of cinema. While many of his colleagues are signing up for the latest action or comic-book franchises, DiCaprio pursues his true passion: taking risks with great directors to create great pictures.
http://deadline.com/2016/02/leonardo-dicaprio-the-revenant-film-education-career-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-quentin-tarantino-martin-scorsese-1201699843/
great read , people who hate on leo should read it to get a sense of how knowledgeable he is of cinema and his place in it , he’s always so well spoken and thoughtful on the subject in his interviews or winners speech
Linklater won BD/BP at BAFTA. Did him zero good.
The only question with Oscar and Revenant is if the film can tie the record of 11 wins. Not implausible, keep an eye out if it surprises in an early tech category over Max and/or Hardy springing the upset in Supporting.
“Linklater won BD/BP at BAFTA. Did him zero good.”
Funny, Linklater has 2 BAFTAs. A lot of people think that’s good.
Does nobody but me ever get sick and tired of thinking that nothing matters to a filmmaker except a fucking Oscar?
Let me clarify. A BAFTA is a good thing, but a horrible tea leaf for Oscar as shown by Linklater.
Inarritu has this in the bag in two weeks.
In the past 7 years, ”Boyhood” was the 1st time that BAFTA’s Best Film didn’t match with Oscar’s Best Picture. So you’re gonna discount the 6 ”horrible” times they matched? 😉
Blanchett won the BAFTA and Paltrow won the Oscar. Enough said.
That’s one of the biggest, of a great many, travestities in Oscar history
Only if an Oscar is the only good award worth winning. I remember Linklater saying that critical praise for his film was mattered to him most because they are one watch every film and can judge whether they’re good or not. Linklater has never come across snooty Oscar voters who have never considered his others film, but he has been highly praised by the critics as one best of his generation.
Linklater is most certainly one of the best American filmmakers going. But his slacker vibe clearly offended Academy voters.
Inarritu at this point could make a version of Idiocracy’s “Ass” and it would run the table.
Slacker vibe offended voters so much they gave him 3 nominations, including 2 that were his and his alone.
Linklater’s outsider status as well as his film clearly was a problem when it came to handing out the final awards. If Birdman had been the IFC film and Boyhood Fox, then the results would have been different.
Are you serious? Here is a list of people who have won Oscars and do not campaign or attend any awards shows: Woody Allen (4 wins), Maggie Smith, Mo’Nique, George C. Scott, the Coen brothers (they probably care less about awards than anybody). If the film was a problem in the first place then why give it the biggest nominations?
Me, as an academy voter, “Man that Linklater really doesn’t respect us. Let’s give him 3 nominations but no wins…that’ll show him.” Why would they give him a nomination for best director over more “friendly” filmmakers like Clint Eastwood for American Sniper (a movie that took the box office and Oscar morning by storm), or James Marsh for Theory of Everything (the most baity Oscar bait movie) or the wunderkind wide-eyed Damien Chazelle for Whiplash (the ginormous Sundance fav)? Saying a group of people had a problem with the film because it didn’t get awards is asinine. Does that mean every film nominated for best picture or director but didn’t win (any film except Birdman) strike a raw nerve with voters?
You are spot on, Pete. Or that had Boyhood was to star, instead of Arquette and Hawk, say, Jodie Foster and Robert Downey Jr., it would more easily triumph. I thought the 12 year thing would help him getting over the hump, but alas, the industry’s disdain for outsiders is too much to overcome. It was really “sad” b/c Boyhood was just a once in a lifetime gem.
“I find myself in that stubborn place of denial where I think it’s probably going to be The Revenant but something keeps me from predicting it whole hog. Maybe it’s because I love the Big Short so much and I actively want it to win.”
At least Sasha is being honest. It’s ok. I am pretty sure that she’ll stick with “The Big Short” even after “The Revenant” wins at BAFTA.
It is what it is..
It’s the same here. I’ll keep predicting Spotlight for picture no matter what! I dislike The Revenant, even though last year, I hated Birdman. Just hated it.
You gotta give kudos to Sasha for laying her cards on the table. She candidly acknowledges how her preferences may influence her predictions: ”Don’t you be like me. Longtime readers know that most of the time when I put my heart on the line, I crash and burn. I don’t want to take you down with me.”
Sasha also gave a rave to ”The Revenant” and often has cited its qualities, but its depiction of cruelty to animals (even though it’s fake) keeps her from fully embracing it more (or rewatching it countless times). Plus, she questions how the preferential ballot plays out for such a possibly polarizing picture.
We’re all human. Like Sasha, I stuck with ”Boyhood” all the way, even after ”Birdman” swept the Guilds.
We’re all human. Like Sasha, I stuck with ”Boyhood” all the way, even after ”Birdman” swept the Guilds.
I still haven’t given up on Life of Pi winning Best Picture.
That year I wanted to keep officially predicting Lincoln even after it was clear Argo was going to win, but Sasha overruled me lol. “Don’t you be like me!”
I don’t get this. Why would you officially predict something that it is clear is not going to happen?
Is barracking more important than getting the prediction right?
I don’t really give a shit about being correct with my predictions. And to me, there’s a difference between being “correct” and being “right” that I’m not really in the mood to discuss right now. Anyone can do decently well for themselves by blindly copying the consensus predictions on GoldDerby/MCN or the other betting markets.
Fair enough.
I guess it’s the difference between being a commentator or barracker and being an accurate predictor.
I think that many of the Oscar experts try to influence the race, not just commentate on or predict it. Do you agree?
are you latina?
I consider Amores Perros to be one of my favorite foreign films, and one of the best foreign debuts of the 2000s. But I can only watch it a few times every 10 years.
My hunches (that will likely be dead wrong):
PIC/DIR – The Revenant
ACTRESS – Ronan’s last stand
S.ACTOR – Rylance, they lovvvved Bridge
S.ACTRESS – Mara, they lovvvved Carol
Techs will split between Revenant and Mad Max
You are correct. Not sure about the techs yet but you are correct with your upper categories calls.
I doubt they’ll go with Ronan. They usually love to reward Brits but most of the time they love the films as well. And most certainly they didn’t care enough to nominated Brooklyn in best film. Ronan could win the same way Reese Witherspoon won.
Vikander winning for supporting is a possibility, but Mara is in Carol and they love it. She’s the best thing about the film. Why not give her the award? But could they go with Winslet. I doubt it, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Witherspoon didn’t win. Not for Wild.
The awards season should be over by now. 2015 is The Past.
No, no, that was 2013…
I don’t understand why people are legitimately holding the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination against The Revenant’s stats. I mean, we all understand that The Revenant was a late-breaker, right? Is it *really* likely that even if they received screeners that the SAG nominating committee could forecast exactly how large the swell of support for The Revenant would be a full month before it was even in limited release in theaters? Yes, they nominated Leo, but they would have nominated Leo even if they hadn’t seen the screener. The comparison, of course, is that The Big Short hadn’t been released yet either and it got an Ensemble nom. But The Big Short is demonstrably an ensemble film in every way that The Revenant isn’t, so that’s not really a fair comparison.
Stats or not, the fact remains that no Oscar voter is going to actively hold it against The Revenant that it wasn’t nominated for SAG Ensemble. Surely no Oscar voter is even considering what SAG did or did not do. Furthermore, let’s acknowledge the fact that SAG nominations are determined by committee, not the breadth of the guild as a whole so to say that because The Revenant didn’t get a nomination there and so the actors branch doesn’t support it as much as they support Spotlight and The Big Short is ignorant.
Look, it’s pretty obvious to me that The Revenant is winning Best Picture. There’s no stopping it now, with or without BAFTA (it’ll get BAFTA).
RIGHT ON !
I think the point of the SAG ensemble award is not that voters think “Oh did this film have a SAG ensemble nomination?” before voting for Best Picture. It’s probably more that they think Best Picture winners include casts were everyone worked together well and did a good job. It’s like giving them Best Picture is a way to award everyone in the cast and their successful collaboration. In The Revenant’s case, when it comes to acknowledging the acting, that’s what the Best Actor award is there for. The lack of a real ensemble cast might be held against it by those few voters who think Best Pictures need large casts, where all the actors do a good job (if such voters exist).
All of this.
I agree.
1) The Revenant did not send screeners out to SAG, they held Screenings.
2) Late releases always have a disadvantage against those early releases with SAG. Look at noms for Beasts/Compton/Woman in Gold, etc, etc.
3) I know people will point out Slumdog Millionaire as an anomaly, but really, The Revenant is not a huge Ensemble-driven film. This is not a Spotlight/Big Short/American Hustle/The Help/The Butler type of sprawling cast/actoring going on (that SAG voters eat up with a spoon)
Just the same way people use the PGA argument. The SAG Cast stat holds. And it’s a huge miss. Just like the adapted screenplay snub and the WGA snub are blows.
The Artist wasn’t a huge ensemble. It was two people and a dog most of the time. It was nominated.
At this point The Revenant has:
the DGA – the big one, true!
the Golden Globe
It missed:
the PGA
the Cinema Editors Guild
(not nominated) SAG Cast
(not nominated) WGA
Even if it wins BAFTA and the ASC, it’s still not a foregone conclusion.
It’s the one film that could get both many # 1 and # 8 placements. Many people hate it and the writing miss does some damage. And of course, I believe many voters would be: He won just last year.
Allegedly! Allegedly! Ignorant. That’s ignorant.
Did you just South Park this thread?
As Claudiu succinctly said, stats are not rules, they are clues.
Clues that illuminate AMPAS’s taste and temperament. One can interpret why a SAG ensemble nomination is potent ingredient a Oscar BP winner. They like films that are well acted throughout by a group of people. I think to them a film that affords actors to interact with each other throughout, complex relationships between humans, is a more satisfying film, a BP type of a movie. Look through the history of BP winners, it’s not a stretch to say that ALL of the winners have this quality.
Fair or not, TR has an impression that it’s about ONE man slogging through harsh nature. I don’t think any such film has ever won BP. Anyone can come up with examples?
Benutty and Idle Time make terrific points. I believe the late screenings AND ”the impression that it’s about ONE man slogging through harsh nature” really hurt its shot at SAG Ensemble. It’s telling that the Academy members, who voted much later than SAG, nominated Hardy for Supporting.
Though DiCaprio is mostly solo throughout the middle third of the movie (except for his scenes with Arthur Redcloud), I would contend that ”The Revenant” has a SAG-worthy Ensemble: Tom Hardy, Will Poulter, Domhnall Gleeson, Forrest Goodluck, Duane Howard, etc. Without their fine contributions, which largely bookend the film, it wouldn’t be the same. So I’m glad that DiCaprio was grateful and gracious enough to mention them all by name in his acceptance speech at SAG.
I don’t buy the late screening theory. Leonardo DiCaprio got in so enough people have seen the film. It’s harder to narrow down individual acting nominees than to narrow down Ensemble nominations as there are more individual actors to choose from than movies with an ensemble cast.
“Look through the history of BP winners, it’s not a stretch to say that ALL of the winners have this quality.”
EXACTLY. Even Braveheart! The fact that it wasn’t nominated was the fluke, in my opinion. Because it was the first year of the SAG Ensemble award. Back in the days when (just one year later) they also had their only winner ever to not be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars…
“As Claudiu succinctly said, stats are not rules, they are clues.”
It’s awesome whenever (alas, a bit too rarely) I see proof that my arguments are being properly understood and registering with smart people. I need that for the next time the Andrews of the world attack my logic just because they don’t like me and what I stand for (the stats)… Thanks, mate! 🙂 Seriously!
Cheers!
“Stats or not, the fact remains that no Oscar voter is going to actively
hold it against The Revenant that it wasn’t nominated for SAG Ensemble”
We give a lot of Oscar voters too much credit. Most every reader at Awards Daily knows far more about who won what when than any Oscar voter.
How many times has it been said on this site: “If only the Oscar ballot listed the names of the cinematographers then surely Deakins would have won an Oscar by now.”
Think about that. What we’re saying is this: “Oscar voters have no earthly idea who shot a movie unless you blast the name right in front of their faces.”
How the hell can any respectable filmmaker (or movielover) NOT know what movies Roger Deakins shot in any given year?
And yet, I’m confident this is probably true. I believe there ARE Academy voter who cannot name 5 movies shot by Roger Deakins. But all of us here can. We can fire off 10 titles right off the top of our heads.
Likewise, some of us can name 85% of the SAG Ensemble winners that ever won. How many 80-year-old former costume designers who haven’t worked for 30 years can do that?
A lot of Oscar voters actively watch movies and love movies. But a lot of them really have no clue what’s going on anymore. (And the latter group are the ones we hope will cease to get a ballot after this year.)
So, Benutty, on the one hand, I agree with you. I’ll bet 1000 Oscar voters could not tell you who won SAG Ensemble this year if their life depended on it.
But.. on the other hand, I think (again) we have to remember what this SAG Ensemble ‘stat’ really means.
It does not mean: “An Oscar voter needs to see that essential SAG Ensemble nomination before they will take a movie seriously for BP.
Nope. That’s redic.
The SAG Ensemble stat simply means: “Most of time, we find a correlation between a SAG Ensemble nomination and Best Picture.”
Period. The two things usually happen in conjunction with one another.
The SAG Ensemble nom doesn’t cause Oscar voters to choose a Best Picture winner.
It’s like this:
– More people drown in swimming pools on sunny days. On rainy days, fewer people drown in swimming pools.
– That doesn’t mean sunshine causes people to drown.
– It just means more people go swimming on sunny days.
But yes, a valid “stat” could be put forth that says, “Ordinarily, people drown in swimming pools on sunny days. Like, almost always!”
SAG Ensemble nominations go to movies that are thick with fine actors interacting with one another. Lots of those movies are great because they have great screenplays and can attract great casts to sign on. Actors whose performances mesh into a unified balanced interplay achieve that effect with great directing and great editing.
Sorry for the childish walk-through, but it seems we sometimes forget this basic significance of stats.
Nobody who fills out their Oscar ballot is thinking: “Nope, I can’t vote for XXX because XXX didn’t get a Sag Ensemble nomination.”
“Ensemble” means actors interacting with one another. That rarely happens in The Revenant.
Heck, much of the time whenever Tom Hardy and Leo DiCaprio are onscreen at the same time, Leo is unconscious or unable to even speak. The rest of the time they are trying to pull each other’s pants down. (I might be misremembering that second thing).
By the way, when I say “80-year-old costume designer” who doesn’t know what’s going on anymore — I’m not inventing a fictional person.
I’m thinking specifically of the Oscar voter who designed elegant movie costumes like this in the 1970s.
He was nominated one time for an Oscar — and he lost — and he’s done nothing but junk for the rest of his life.
(He’s going to keep voting too. He won’t lose his ballot privilege. Because he keeps getting hired (every 4 or 5 years) for crappy movies that nobody ever heard of.)
Thank you, Ryan! It’s so nice whenever I read a well thought out post from someone who understands what I keep rambling on about pretty much every day around here… 🙂
“”Ensemble” means actors interacting with one another. That rarely happens in The Revenant.”
Exactly. Late release or not, The Revenant almost definitely wasn’t getting nominated for that one. Which is one more clue that it’s not the type of movie Oscar awards (and with incredible regularity, given the lack of exceptions for the last 20 years or so.)
“but they would have nominated Leo even if they hadn’t seen the screener.”
We don’t know that… It’s pure speculation, just as much based in reality as any other bit of speculation this (like the three votes thing) or any other year.
“Look, it’s pretty obvious to me that The Revenant is winning Best Picture. There’s no stopping it now, with or without BAFTA (it’ll get BAFTA).”
Would suck if this actually turned out to be wrong, despite being so obvious… (Which is partly why I never use that word when making predictions.)
Sasha is a very political animal ; she allows her beliefs and emotions to cloud and impair her judgement in a similar way that alcohol does ; I well remember her going down with the sinking Lincoln ship when everyone else had bailed
I also remember her having a minor panic when she thought that American Hustle would beat 12YRS and then there was the Social Network
I don’t know who will win Oscar but I’m convinced that Revenant will win BAFTA …the betting odds @ oddschecker confirm that Inirritu will win BD and so it seems to me that he is very likely to win BP too , especially with Leo winning BA…Christian Bale will not win BSA
“she allows her beliefs and emotions to cloud and impair her judgement in a similar way that alcohol does”
Are you for fucking real?
Yes , indeed I am !….I have a finely tuned policeman-like intuition of human nature gained by time travelling through 25 centuries of human history ; yes , the wisdom gained by searching through the blood splattered pages of History …I am very rarely wrong about the way I read people and unsurprisingly I actually make a tidy living doing just that by betting on elections around the world …the more we change , the more we in some ways remain eerily the same !
Sasha may have political beliefs but she still is a damn fine predictor. She’s shown up as number one predictor many a time at Goldderby. She may be passionate about, say The Social Network or Lincoln, but she didn’t predict them. There’s a difference.
Of course she did
Did you call Sasha an alcoholic animal?
really do not wish to see the Revenant to win anything, birdman over boyhood is ironic but at least birdman is a good film, and the Revenant is far worse. I found this year’s BP category very weak, I missed to see spotlight, among other noms i think the big short or carol should win and prefer Carol. Bridge of Spies is good but it’s Spielberg for him good is not enough.
Carol isn’t nominated; try to keep up. Also, see Spotlight.
Carol and Bridge of Spies are nommed for BP and BD at BAFTAS. They are the nomination leaders, as well.
“Carol isn’t nominated”
Yes it is.
This person confused me with their “BP” jargon so I thought they were talking bigger picture (as in “Best Picture”). BAFTA has “Best Film.”
sorry, i was talking about bafta when i talked about which film should win. and i was talking about both bafta and oscar when i talked about weak category.
also i saw room yesterday and now my mind has been changed, without seeing spotlight and brooklyn i think room is the strongest nom in best picture category of this year’s oscar.
A question on PGA. Has any film other than TBS ever won PGA having won no other Best Picture award?
Depends if the context is *any* Best Picture award or a “major* Best Picture award. I believe the only Best Picture award The King’s Speech won before it won PGA was from the Phoenix Film Critics Society. Frankly, as a lifelong Phoenician, I don’t really consider that at all major.
Is that what they call folks from Phoenix, Phoenicians? Cool. I thought they came from Phoenicia! 😉
The etymology is certainly up for debate, but the ancient Greek word for Phoenix is thought to have been derived from Phoenicia. https://www.quora.com/Mythical-Creatures/What-is-the-etymology-behind-phoenix-Does-it-have-anything-to-do-with-the-Phoenicians
If the BAFTAs follow this years Golden Globes Rule then “The Revenant” wins big. Inarritu didn’t win last year and I just can’t see this scenario happening again.
If you look at the odds for Inirritu winning BD he is the odds on fav ; it’s still possible there is a split , but I doubt it ; they missed rewarding him last year and will not miss the opportunity again
A word on DGA. They liked TR so much that they broke their history to award AGI. That’s pretty significant.
You’re right, Andrew. Before Saturday night, most pundits were picking George Miller to win the DGA; they ruled Inarritu out of the equation because he had just won last year for ”Birdman.” And most importantly, NO director in the 68-year history of the DGA Awards had EVER won back-to-back. So it was a big deal for Inarritu to break such a record. (At the Oscars, TWO men have won Best Director back-to-back – John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz – so one could say that Inarritu beat even longer odds at DGA.)
Of course, the DGA win doesn’t automatically mean Inarritu gets the Best Director Oscar. But it does shoot down the idea that Inarritu can’t win an award back-to-back. And it gives ”Revenant” more momentum.
Next up: BAFTA. And only 2 of the 5 Directing nominees are also Oscar nominees: Inarritu and McKay.
Good point.
I don’t get the stuff about your reputation.
Last year you stuck with Boyhood up until Oscar night against all the stats. And the other pundits.
I don’t think your reputation is at risk sticking with TBS.
I think you have a reputation for sticking with the film you love. Nothing wrong with that. This year you’ve got a much better chance of being right than last year.
You says odds are the TR will win; strictly speaking that’s what you should predict I guess?! You sort of the said the same thing about Birdman even though you predicted against it.
I saw a podcast that said experts get called whenever they change their predictions. I wonder whether sometimes the stance is to keep the favoured film in the conversation, to try and prevent a bandwagon/ inevitability effect
Sasha keeps going on about the big short that she did die if it doesn’t win bafta or oscars. This race is all over the place and not only tbs. So boring
The Big Short winning best picture at Bafta is not happening.
I agree , its a very American type of movie like , say American Hustle, that does not necessarily fit with a Brit audience
You never know. I thought ”Boyhood” was ”too American” for their tastes and the Best Film prize. Obviously, BAFTA also could’ve gone for a British film, like ”The Theory of Everything,” or ”The Grand Budapest Hotel,” which was full of European settings. But I guess BAFTA felt ”Boyhood” was universal enough. In fact, this year BAFTA didn’t even nominate any British movies for Best Film.
What’s “too American” about “Boyhood”? What does that even mean?
”Boyhood” is a movie about a kid growing up in suburban Texas, probably in public school.
If it had been about a British boy, I would’ve expected it to be a little more about class, and that the kids would’ve worn uniforms. … Maybe I’ve seen too many ”Harry Potter” movies! 😉
Argo was an American -type film and the Brits had zero problem awarding that.
The Big Short is a kissing cousin of In the Loop in terms of style (and overall has a humor that evokes both Woody Allen and Monty Python), and the Brits were hit hard by the housing bubble too, so I don’t buy this argument that Big Short is too American/too topical for BAFTA.
They went for ARGO by default when Lincoln was dry , wordy and difficult to swallow …either way we are going to find out who’s right in a few days .. your encyclopedia -like knowledge of stats ,or my detective-like intuition of human nature …we shall see
PS / a significant clue is the odds on betting on Inirritu as BD ; it’s possible for there to be a split ..possible , but not likely ; furthermore , I don’t know of one single person I know who has actually watched TBS here in the UK
well i think the writing is pretty much on the wall in term of the revenant wining BP if it wins BAFTA cuz that pretty much gives it full head of steam rolling into the oscars and i think it just might explode at the oscars to sweep pretty much everything it can
Having seen the revenant 2nd time.
i have to say holy cow innaritu directed the shit out of the movie.Camera is like a creature of its own.In the starting battle it felt like a snake moving through the battle.
But bafta seems to be an organization which dont do I owe you awards….they go with proper awards like snubbing melissa leo when she won oscar and snubbing the fighter for best picture..so may be they go with TBS/Spotlight
They gave JLaw a BAFTA for American Hustle over the favorite Lupita N’yongo, the year after they failed to give her the BAFTA for Silver Lining Playbook. I think that’s an example of IOU.
However, they would only feel the IOU for the BD, not BP. If they don’t like Revenant, they won’t give it BP. But Inarritu is almost a lock.
I’m gonna offer an alternative version: BAFTA didn’t give Best Actress to Jennifer Lawrence for ”Silver Linings Playbook” because they preferred Emmanuelle Riva. Clearly, they weren’t trying to second-guess the Oscar pick that season because Riva was considered an Academy longshot.
The following year, BAFTA gave Supporting Actress to Lawrence for ”American Hustle,” but it wasn’t necessarily as a makeup award. After all, the Golden Globes also picked Lawrence over Nyong’o for Supporting (even tho’ Lawrence won Best Actress the year before at Globes). And the N.Y. Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics chose Lawrence over Nyong’o, too.
Arguably, Lawrence was a legit winner for ”Hustle”; no one needed to ”owe” her anything.
Yes. All this. Yes.
For me giving the Oscar to J Law over Emanuelle Riva is the most unforgivable travesty of award AMPAS have given. They should be ashamed. Yet here I am caring about what they do again.
Yes, it was a competitive race between Lupita and JLaw. And the reason the Academy didn’t give it to JLaw b/c they awarded her the year before for SLP. And the reason BAFTA gave it to JLaw for AH is because they *didn’t* give it to her the year before.
Not sure what this “respect” you have for the BAFTA over AMPAS. Politics involve in every award voting body.
Several years ago, BAFTA changed its schedule so it could more of a player in the Oscar race. But I agree with you: They don’t do ”I owe you” awards. They’re willing to go their own way sometimes. Last year, ”Birdman” won the PGA on Jan. 24; the SAG Ensemble on Jan. 25. If the BAFTAs were really betting on predicting the Oscars, they could’ve easily copied those Guild wins. The BAFTAs weren’t announced until 2 weeks later: on Feb. 8. But the BAFTAs still went with ”Boyhood” for Best Film and Director. (That’s the first time in the past 7 years, that BAFTA’s Best Film choice differed from the Academy’s.)
”Bridge of Spies” and ”Carol” lead the BAFTA pack with 9 nominations each, followed by ”The Revenant” with 8. Once again, the BAFTA could go its own way and pick any of those 3, or ”Spotlight” or ”The Big Short.” If ”Revenant” wins, I don’t think it’s a makeup award; it’ll just be the movie they liked the most.
“Several years ago, BAFTA changed its schedule so it could more of a player in the Oscar race.”
Here’s how I remember the BAFTAs when I was living overseas — BAFTA Night was in mid-April!
BAFTA Night 1997 was April 29th, for god’s sake!
The new year was nearly half over and BAFTA was still handing out awards for the previous year. It was nuts. It was like they had a London Prom Night in summertime 2 months after everybody else had long since moved on.
Yes, in 2000 the BAFTAs decided that it would be more fun to hold their awards before everybody else had wrapped up and gone home months ago 🙂
But I’m with you, Wayman — one look at BAFTA winners over the years and they seem to be making no effort to “influence” the Oscars.
Roger Deakins has won the BAFTA 3 times. Are the BAFTAs trying to convince the Oscars to give Deakins an Oscar? How’s that working out?
Maybe the BAFTA voters are simply more sophisticated than Oscar voters.
Maybe the BAFTA voters ENJOY showing the Oscars how much classier BAFTA taste is than Oscar taste. (not always, but often)
Robert Altman won two BAFTA awards for Best Director.
Martin Scorsese won 3 BAFTAs for Goodfellas. (Director, Producer, Screenplay)
Why would a group of fimmakers as smart as the BAFTAs try to mimic a group as clunky, stiff and mundane as the Oscars?
Surely the BAFTA voters take pride in the fact that they very often make choices that stand the test of time far better than the Oscars do.
Did the BAFTAs try to get the Oscars to name Emmanuelle Riva Best Actress? Good luck. They would need to get Oscars voters to watch the damn movie first.
And I think we’ve seen plenty of evidence that Oscar voters are stubborn and full of their own popularity contest bullshit. I can’t imagine that any Oscar voter waits to see what the BAFTAs will do before the typical American Hollywood narcissist can decide what to do.
Exactly
Having lived half of my life in the UK and half in the US I do see the differences in tastes between the two groups ; generally speaking , Bafta is a bit more sophisticated and highbrow and not seduced by American popular culture …..TBS , like American Hustle seems to me to be not necessarily a good fit for a Brit audience ….TR seems far more popular over here
I am CERTAIN that Inirritu wins BD and the betting odds confirm this …there could still be a split , I guess , but I just doubt it
WHYYYYY do they not put Cinematographers/Editors/Production Designers/Costumers/Sound/FX etc. names on those ballots.
I don’t get it. So annoying. I firmly believe that Deakins would have an Oscar by now. Heck, he should have had 2 in one night for the combined effort on The Assassination of Jesse James/No Country for Old Men back in 2007.
TWBB is stunning, but I don’t know that it would’ve won had voters seen Deakins name next to those 2 visual masterpieces.
My favorite post of yours, ever. Agree 100%. It always bothers me when people say other groups vote the way they do to mimic and/or be in step with the Academy. Nonsense. Critics, industry members, etc. all vote their preferences, as these are individuals. And many of these individuals, I know from first hand experience, know how poor the Academy’s track record is in selecting the true “best” (or even 2nd best). Its a hoot to vote for a Best Picture prize. Who would waste their precious vote by casting in accordance with what they think the precious Academy will say?
I’ve been trashing the Academy since they snubbed Brokeback. Crash, such a poorly rated film, was such a cynical choice, going for a well-meaning but very clunky and bombastic film about race relations instead, so they couldn’t be accused of bigotry. But they certainly were guilty of institutional bigotry as Best Picture records were shattered in favor of Brokeback within both the critics and guilds following (PGA-DGA-WGA combo has still never lost but for that year). Utah, where Brokeback was banned in several theaters, picked it Best Picture. But not the Academy, who wouldn’t even watch it. Many openly said so, with impunity. So I, and many others, started shouting, they are a bunch of old bigots, behind the Country, not ahead, not leading, where frankly it should be as a major institution of highly successful artists (see Harry Belafonte’s acceptance speech from the 2014 Governor’s Awards).
Anyhow, jump to 2015. The Oscars so white. 0 for 40 acting nods, with plenty of worthy contenders, including SAG winner Idris Elba who should have been winning in a few weeks (imo; at least certainly nominated!). I am vindicated in my accusations against the Academy. People say don’t blame the Academy, its an industry problem. Sure its an industry problem, of course its an industry problem, and a major national problem. But its nonsense to say don’t blame the Academy. Virtually every other critics group, plus organizations like SAG, the Globes, BAFTA, etc., all had no problem nominating persons of color. For the second year in a row, its just the Academy that didn’t. When everybody else finds excellence beyond the lily white (which I am, btw), and easily nominates with diversity, but one group consistently doesn’t (and that group ain’t Utah!)…well, If that’s not institutional bigotry, what is?
The final evidence is the interviews among so many Academy members, from those who didn’t want “John Wayne to roll over in his grave” as excuses for not watching Brokeback, to Michael Caine and Charlotte Rampling. Maybe they are not racists, but they certainly just don’t get it.
I still like awards season, it serves as a good guide for what films to see. But I haven’t watched the Oscars in a decade, and this year will be no exception. In my opinion, time and energy is better spent in support of organizations that are grounded in the 21st century, progressive, and that seek equality for all. That just isn’t the Oscars, it never has been.
Having watched it twice now, I completely agree. That is one hell of a Directed film.
Omg. It just occurred to me that “Carol” produced by three women and a man. It seems the snubbing of “Carol” wasn’t just about homophobia.
BAFTA has historically championed small indie films. They are different from the Academy and would tend to go for the less flashy but masterful work.
Carol had Harvey Weinstein behind it. There is really no excuse. It’s just not strong enough of a material for AMPAS,
It’s first since the BP was expanded that TWC missed a BP nomination. Why did “Carol” miss Oscar BP nomination? I don’t understand the reason why the Academy snubbed it.
Look at the precursors. PGA and DGA snubbed it too. Shouldn’t be that much of a surprise.
They sure did, but why? “Carol” is film about two Lesbian lovers and produced by three women and directed an openly gay man. “Carol” is a great film, and has the highest Critical scores. BAFTA rates but why doesn’t Hollywood?
there are tons of lesbian movies produced by women…not all can be awarded as part of quota and not take quality into consideration…
And how many of them get released by big studios and given Oscar pushes? The one chance they had to fill this mythical quota you refer to, and they botch it.
Carol (hypothetically) being recognized would never have been because of a quota being filled but because of the actual quality of it.
Tons? Really? Please name some. And name any other than Carol that won one of the two most prestigious Best Picture prizes in America, that being NY (the other LA), being pushed by a big studio with a major national release and solid box office for a film its size. Plus the most BAFTA nominations, etc.
Carol wasn’t my favorite film this either. So what. Its the group consensus that matters, and this year, Carol was critically in the top 3, which alone should have given it an Oscar nomination for Picture (like the BAFTAs, Globes, etc.). And was ahead of Room, Bridge and Brooklyn in overall precursors.
Maybe you are an Academy member, as you go out of your way to justify Academy right wing choices.
Todd Haynes is a kind of filmmaker who scores high with the critics. His films are academic, full of nods and tributes to break downs of film past. It satisfies the scholarly elitists, but apparently not AMPAS and audience in general.
Furthermore, Carol made very little money despite having a big studio behind, not to mention the sexy aspect of two beautiful female stars getting it on the big screen.
Carol won Best Picture at the New York Film Critics, which was founded in 1935 (The Informer beat Oscar winner Mutiny on the Bounty…good choice). In the ensuing 81 years, the NY winner was at least been nominated for the Oscar 74 times. Only 7 misses, with gay Todd Haynes film being 2 of them, gay-ish Mulholland Dr. another (the latter voted at the 2012 Sight & Sound poll as the best English-language film since 1979), very anti-Hollywood The Player another. And Carol is the first NY winner since the increase from 5 nominees in 2009 to miss at the Oscars. one wonders. But who cares. Far from Heaven stands the test of time better than Chicago, and Carol – not my personal fave – is certainly a far superior film to empty torture porn The Revenant.
Yes, NYFC has a very good track record with choosing possible BP nominees from their BP winner. And it’s not a bad query when AMPAS ignored Carol in BP race. But I just think that Todd Haynes films feel too small and contained for AMPAS’s taste. They prefer something much more emotionally on-your-sleeve. Again, PGA ignored Carol too and they have 10 films on their list, not 8 at the Oscars this year.
With 6 noms, including Acting, Writing, and Cinematography … it’s clear to me that Carol was likely the 9th nominee for BP.
What a shame that the Oscars prevents 9th and 10th nominees to round out a “10” simply because it doesn’t meet a percentage quota.
Carol and Compton/Star Wars/Creed’s potential addition in a Top 10 would’ve been welcomed, impressive, and toned down a little bit of this Oscars So White/Oscars hate Gay movies/Oscars hate Women/Oscars hate films led by black people/women stigma. Just a bit.
True, John, but why couldn’t Carol and/or Compton break into the top 8? Based upon precursor history, both were ahead of Bridge of Spies, Room and Brooklyn. We know why…institutional racism. Sorry, its true.
I don’t think Carol was that far off from a BP nomination. It got far more than Tangerine. Around the day of the nominations, a nomination for Nagy was on very shaky ground and the Oscars, thankfully, recognized her.
I predicted TR to win six BAFTA awards: BP, BD, Best Actor, Cinematography, Sound, Hair and Make up. TBS to win three: Adapted Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor and Editing. Ex-Machina to win two: Best British Film and Outstanding Debut. “Inside Out”(Animated), “Amy”(Documentary), “Timbuktu” (Best Film Not in the English Language), “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (Best Visual Effects) “Cinderella” (Best Costume) “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Production Design) “The Hateful Eight”(Score) “Carol”(Best Supporting Actress), “Brooklyn” (Best Actress), “Spotlight” (Best Original Screenplay) all to win one each.
The British Film category is voted by a committee and I think they’ll go with something like The Lobster.
Here’s how it looks to GoldDerby.com pundits (which includes Sasha) right now:
* Best Film: 7 out of 11 experts predict ”Revenant”; 2 predict ”Spotlight”; 1 for ”Carol,” 1 for ”Big Short” (Sasha)
* Best Director: 8 out of 11 experts (including Sasha) predict Inarritu; 2 for Scott; 1 for Haynes
* Best Actor: It’s a sweep. All 11 predict DiCaprio
* Best Actress: 10 out of 11 predict Larson; 1 for Ronan
* Best Supporting Actor: 9 out of 11 predict Rylance; 1 for Elba; 1 for Bale (Sasha)
* Best Supporting Actress: 6 out of 11 predict Mara; 5 predict Vikander (for ”Ex-Machina”)
For the rest of the BAFTA categories, you can click onto them via this link (they’re listed on far left):
http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/bafta-film-awards-2015/best-picture.html
I get the “won last year” reasoning, but why would Revenant be more likely to win BAFTA than AMPAS? Isn’t it much more AMPAS than BAFTA type of winner?
No offense but why do people do this. We all know where gold derby is. If we wanted to know what they think, we’d go there wouldn’t we? It seems like people think Sasha should say whatever the consensus there is saying to go along with the herd and I’m worried it’s starting to make a dent.
I hope saorise ronan wins too. shes great in Brooklyn. her face shines the screen.
Wait a minute, that thing called Minions is nominated for Best Animated Film? WTF? HAHAHAHAHA, what a glorious choice!
My pick for the worst film of 2015. :b
Shaun The Sheep, on the other hand, is my favorite animated film from 2015.
(Yes, I actually believe it’s better than Inside Out. Then again, I’m more of a Keaton fan as opposed to a Chaplin fan.)
I too, LOVED Shaun the Sheep far more than Inside Out, and am also more of a Keaton than a Chaplin fan.
Anomalisa is by far the best animated movie of the year, in my opinion, but it may not have even played overseas. That’s the thing to take note of with BAFTA.
I hope Saoirse Ronan wins this at least. I was not so impressed by Brie Larson. She was okay, but I think some other actresses could have done it better. To me Jacob Tremblay was much better and the soul of the movie..I don’t know why he was snubbed by AMPAS when they have nominated other kids already.
Jacob is the reason Room has so much spirit, but Brie is the reason Room has so much emotional power. Her performance was spot-on, the kind of performances I like… unfettered and unassuming. I agree that Jacob should have been nominated for Best Actor. I think the studio pushing him for BSA hurt his chances for BA as I think his votes got split in 2 categories.
Interesting. To me all the emotional power was because of his innocence, sweetness and fear. I think someone like Alicia Vikander or better yet Scarlett Johansson would’ve brought more emotional power from a mother’s point of view.
Yeah, Larson is the IT girl for some reason this year. She’s “very good” in Room. But she was better in Short Term 12. For me, Jacob Tremblay is the real WOW-er of Room. Both Brooklyn and Room received the same amazingly high critical acclaim. Brooklyn has absolutely won the Box Office battle (33 mill so far versus 11). Saoirse is a previous nominee and a charmer. I’m just surprised by the Brie Larson surge this Oscar season. I like her a lot. I just don’t get the sweep factor surrounding her.
It’s time to win BAFTA for the great Christian Bale, crazy his lost for The Fighter.
Haven’t seen TBS, haven’t had much interest to be honest. But I think CB is a great actor.
Exactly! How can anyone even dare to question Bale’s Oscar that year? As great as Rush was, there can’t be any comparisions! He really is a brilliant actor and easily in my top 5 favorite actors working nowadays.
its that whole british kings speech thing….that led to him winning…i mean how can u not give speech therapist an award when the movie is winning was their idiotic logic
Geoffrey Rush is an actor’s actors while Christian Bale is not even in the same class. These big movie stars are as good as people think they are you know. There few A-star actors who are character actors. The likes of Di Nero, Nicholson, Pacino, Hoffman, and latter ones like Hanks, Washington, Spacey and Russell Crowe are a dying breed. The likes DiCaprio, Damon, Bale and Pitt are nowhere that level. Bale is the best of that bunch. Depp is at least an actor who challenges himself by taking unusual roles. Depp is at least interesting even if he’s at top level.
I agree with almost all that you say except that DiCaprio is “nowhere [near] that level”. He’s nearly always attached to great material and he nearly always excels in the part. Gilbert Grape, Titanic, Django, Catch Me If You Can, Shutter Island and Revolutionary Road are such good roles and very different from one another.
Also, Hanks is great at what he does, but he’s not a character actor.
And Johnny Depp has been into “heavy make-up” roles for way too long. He’s too affected, and for me, his shtick has gotten old.
enough with leo fanboying…..you love his movies…stop with that..dont go defending him and start putting him in company with marlon brando and robert de niro..leo is just a star who happens to have enough talent(>bradley cooper) and commercial success that directors want to work with him and he works with only top directors…ask him to work with adam mckay and give a performance like bale …then you come and defend leo….leo’s only good performance was in gilberts grape where he took risk……from then on he just keeps doing hero roles..he is razzie nominee for the beach and man in the iron mask
Why are you?
Wolf of Wall Street (crook), The Revenant (anti-hero), Django Unchained (slave owner), Catch Me If You Can (crook), Revolutionary Road (adulterer). I would also add The Departed to the anti-hero status. If anything he’s more anti-hero with his roles than an actual hero.
Agree! He’s like Tom Cruise, trying hard, but without the layers, like Gene Hackman, Brando, Nicholson, Duvall and their ilk. Bale is talented but overacts. Fassbender, who I believe was miscast as Steve Jobs, was extraordinary in Hunger and Shame. Heath Ledger was a great actor based upon those two iconic performances alone, and so was PSHoffman. And Daniel Day-Lewi, and Ralph Fiennes and Forest Whitaker and Jeff Bridges.. Of the younger generation, Jake Gyllenhaal, Gael Garcia Bernal and Benedict Cumberbatch impress.
Yikes! I’m no fanboy. I disliked Wolf of Wall Street, The Beach, The Aviator, Romeo + Juliet, and others. And J. Edgar. And The Great Gatsby. Inception hangs its hat on its special effects. He’s had his share of dumb parts, that’s for sure.
However, his performance in The Revenant is worthy of an Oscar. The fact that he’s been associated with so much good cinema, unlike someone like Stallone (who is somehow winning for “career achievement”), is worthy of an Oscar.
It also helps that he isn’t up against anyone of note this year. Maybe if Michael Caine had been nominated for Youth I might be torn…
risk taking pays off only if it succeeds and not if you make mordecai :-)…check out a movie called the room(2003) and not room(2015)…do u think he is a great film maker ?? he took risk right ? enough with johnny depp supporting…he seems to be soo full of himself that even if he is acting shit he seems to think he is doing great….jack sparrow is the only weird character that he did which was good…rest were crap…and he wanted an oscar nomination for blackmass for what ? acting for once ??? he acted shit in all the recent movies and once if he acted then he need oscar nod ?? i admire bale and leo , bale because he too takes risk but his success rate is greater than failure……..leo always succeeds even if he doesnt take risks which is not an easy feat….
yeah me too
haven’t seen carol yet.
Carol deserves something big in this season. Not my favorite movie of the year but I hope BAFTA goes for it.
And it did: the New York Film Critics Best Picture prize. Unlike the Academy, that’s a group that honored, among others, The Grapes of Wrath, Citizen Kane, A Streetcar Named Desire, High Noon (unlike Academy preference The Greatest Show on Earth!), All the President’s Men, Reds, Goodfellas, Fargo, LA Confidential, Saving Private Ryan, Mulholland Dr., Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Boyhood, etc. If you compare year by year since 1935, I’d take NY’s track record over the Academy’s any day. The prestige is there.
no one cares NYFC…critics arent filmmakers….they are journalists who think their opinion is better than a normal person…they are failed filmmakers
Get eff off here. No cares about you. You aren’t a filmmaker but think your opinion is better than everyone else.
Haha, funny response!
It interesting one would visit this site and show disdain for critics/journalists. So much of Awards Daily is a recap and analysis of what critics think!
i am voicing majority of public opinion and not mine..take it easy
Get off here John Smith. You are neither a film critic nor a filmmaker but think your opinion is better than everyone else. LOL. You have no idea what/who the rest of us are as we post, so disagree if you will, but don’t presumptively kick others who disagree with you off a site that isn’t even yours.
When the NYFCC picks better winners than the Oscars, and has been for decades, then it matters far more which people should be following.
rylance was fantastic in bos. hes totally winning bsa at bafta andoscar
Sly is better than him
Think Rylance will take BAFTA and Sly will win the Oscar.
I think Mark Rylance is winning BSA over Bale here. BAFTA want to reward BOS with something.
Agreed
Go Carol!
I think and hope its Revenant here. But if BIg Short wins here then im picking McKay’s movie at Oscar in BP
Also, BAFTA should help us with those tech categories like visual effects, sound.
” If I pick the Revenant and I’m right – no harm, no foul but it won’t matter that much, except to have dodged a shame and humiliation drive-by, since many will be predicting The Revenant. If I stick with The Big Short, and no one else is predicting it, and by some weird fluke it wins? Well, that’s a higher payout on a riskier bet.”
Well, on Gold Derby only 5 of 24 experts are picking Revenant in BP at Oscars. Most still sticking with TBS or Spotlight
they will change by oscar night…revenant is too generic to not win best picture…
”The Revenant” is many things: beautiful, brutal, epic, melancholic, visceral … but it’s not ”too generic.” It’s got stretches with no dialogue; conversations in Pawnee and Arikara languages, etc.
Those things make it stand out. Still, there are folks who keep insisting it’s too ”divisive” to win.
by generic i mean it doesnt offend anyone..only one it offends is the french but again none of oscar voters or bafta voters are french..so its good to go…TBH if it wins there is no significant impact on anything…its like ok its done and lets move on..atleast if TBS wins it appears as if oscars are taking a stand against wallstreet..
One HUGE minus is that Inarritu’s Birdman won last year. If it were Boyhood that won, I’d say the Revenant all the way this year.
I’m rooting for the Big Short. It’s a great movie and a comedy (sort of…).
Hey, if Inarritu can win the DGA back-to-back, who’s to say it can’t happen at the Oscars? 😉
Check the dates, many haven’t updated since DGA