Predictions Friday: Every Gambler Knows…

Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for is to die
In your sleep – Kenny Rogers

It’s all come down to this, my friends. Thank you for following us on this twisty turny crazy wild ride that started with Cannes and will end at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood. Will Alejandro G. Iñárritu make Oscar history by being the first director to best John Ford, Frank Capra, Billy Wilder, Steven Spielberg, John Huston, George Stevens, Frances Ford Coppola, and so many other legendary filmmakers and direct a Best Picture winner two years in a row? That’s an 88-year stat that might go down on Sunday. If he just wins Best Director, he’ll only be the third to win two years in a row. Best Picture, though, that’s the real record.

On the plus side for The Revenant is that Steve Pond thinks it might come in with more number one votes than any other film and that if it lands in the lead after the first round of balloting, it could stay in the lead, meaning no other film could overtake it.

On the negative side for The Revenant is simply this: when was the last time you saw a Best Picture winner that people openly detested actually win, let alone on a preferential ballot? I haven’t seen it except when it accidentally happened (Crash) and really, hatred for that film bubbled up after its win. No, it’s unprecedented to see a movie this hated (and loved, to be fair) win. That will also be a record.

For a film to come in and win without a SAG Ensemble award nomination is a record unto itself (Braveheart being the only one – ever, in the first year of the SAG Awards), and to win without a screenplay nomination is also a rarity, though not a record (Titanic did it, The Sound of Music did it). To have both together, coupled with a PGA loss? Unheard of up one side and down the other. Actually, if it happens, one can really just say there is no point in looking at any stat. History is made in the now and there is no other point to be discussed.

You see, people are going on the “vibe” of The Revenant winning the Globes and the BAFTA and the DGA. But only the DGA gave Iñárritu the back-to-back wins. Both the BAFTA and the Globes denied him his win with Birdman last year. Thus, to my mind, you really have to toss those. If it were me, and I didn’t pick Birdman last year, I would surely make good and pick The Revenant. The Academy, though, they have a different kettle of fish in their hands – they are looking at a back-to-back wins for this film and this director, which makes it the longest of long shot predictions to win – even though it seems like the logical choice, funny, isn’t it? Well, it’s a little funny.

Add to that the preferential ballot. With five films on the Best Picture slate, a Revenant win would seem like a no-brainer. Aye, but there’s the rub. A preferential ballot means that in a competitive year like this one, the people tabulating the votes will have to do multiple rounds of counting. They take the film with the fewest number of votes – let’s say it’s Bridge of Spies – eliminate it from contention, and then transfer its ballots to the next highest choice. Then, maybe Brooklyn falls away next; now that film’s ballots are going to be dispersed into the other piles. They might go to The Martian or Room – whatever those voters chose as their next highest title, those piles get the reallocated ballots, and on and on it goes until there are, let’s say, a final four: The Revenant, The Big Short, Spotlight, Mad Max – they take the film with the fewest number of votes and redistribute. Mad Max voters’ nest highest choice becomes important. Which one will benefit more from Mad Max’s elimination? Which piles get higher with each round?

Here’s the problem with The Revenant on a preferential ballot. It didn’t win the Producers Guild, the only other group that uses one. Why didn’t it win? Probably because it’s sharply divisive – you either love it, or you hate it. To win on a preferential ballot you have to be liked AND loved. You can’t just be liked – you can’t just be loved. You have to come in with everyone’s approval and then some. That is why when a contender comes in backed by a PGA/DGA/SAG win, they can’t lose. They’ve proved they can win on a preferential ballot, and a non-preferential plurality ballot. With three different movies taking three different guilds, you know it’s not only going to be competitive, but a plurality vote won’t cut it. Why, because neither Spotlight (SAG winner), nor The Revenant (DGA winner) could win on a preferential ballot – at least not so far. Maybe enough changed, maybe the combination of movies changed, maybe SOMETHING has shot The Revenant higher than it was for the PGA voters.

This makes Oscar Sunday a true cliffhanger. Most of the prominent pundits are tossing aside all history and stats and predicting The Revenant – Steve Pond, Scott Feinberg, Anne Thompson, Dave Karger, Pete Hammond, Tom O’Neil, etc. A few of us risk takers are saying – yeah, no. It can’t be The Revenant because people HATE IT as well as love it. Maybe a film like Schindler’s List or Titanic could be a back-to-back winner, but a film half of the people seeing it HATE?  A little harder to judge. That is why our Award Daily “most likely” prediction for Best Picutre is still The Big Short. Despite the buzz and everything else, we feel The Big Short is MORE likely to win based on the Producers Guild than The Revenant, which could not win there.

By Sunday, we’ll know if this is all pointless or not. Some of us will be right, some of us will be wrong, and sometimes it rains.

Herewith, our final predictions, with gratitude to the Oscar gods that this could be the year they finally prove to me that stats don’t matter. And of course, we know they don’t.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. “The Big Short” Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
2. “Spotlight” Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin and Blye Pagon Faust, Producers
3. “The Revenant” Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Mary Parent and Keith Redmon, Producers
4. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Doug Mitchell and George Miller, Producers
5. “Room” Ed Guiney, Producer
6. “The Martian” Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer and Mark Huffam, Producers
7. “Bridge of Spies” Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
8. “Brooklyn” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers

Achievement in Directing

1. “The Revenant” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” George Miller
3. “The Big Short” Adam McKay
4. “Spotlight” Tom McCarthy
5. “Room” Lenny Abrahamson

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”
2. Matt Damon in “The Martian”
3. Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs”
4. Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo”
5. Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
2. Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight”
3. Christian Bale in “The Big Short”
4. Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies”
5. Tom Hardy in “The Revenant”

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

1. Brie Larson in “Room”
2. Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
3. Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
4. Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
5. Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”
2. Rooney Mara in “Carol”
3. Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight”
5. Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight”

Adapted Screenplay

1. “The Big Short” Screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
2. “Carol” Screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
3. “Room” Screenplay by Emma Donoghue
4. “Brooklyn” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
5. “The Martian” Screenplay by Drew Goddard

Original Screenplay

1. “Spotlight” Written by Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy
2. “Straight Outta Compton” Screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; Story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff
3. “Inside Out” Screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley; Original story by Pete Docter, Ronnie del Carmen
4. “Bridge of Spies” Written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
5. “Ex Machina” Written by Alex Garland

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

1. “Inside Out” Pete Docter and Jonas Rivera
2. “Anomalisa” Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson and Rosa Tran
3. “When Marnie Was There” Hiromasa Yonebayashi and Yoshiaki Nishimura
4. “Shaun the Sheep Movie” Mark Burton and Richard Starzak
5. “Boy and the World” Alê Abreu

Achievement in Cinematography

1. “The Revenant” Emmanuel Lubezki
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” John Seale
3. “Carol” Ed Lachman
4. “Sicario” Roger Deakins
5. “The Hateful Eight” Robert Richardson

Achievement in Costume Design

1. “Carol” Sandy Powell
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Jenny Beavan
3. “Cinderella” Sandy Powell
4. “The Danish Girl” Paco Delgado
5. “The Revenant” Jacqueline West

Best Documentary Feature

1. “What Happened, Miss Simone?” Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby and Justin Wilkes
2. “Amy” Asif Kapadia and James Gay-Rees
3. “Cartel Land” Matthew Heineman and Tom Yellin
4. “The Look of Silence” Joshua Oppenheimer and Signe Byrge Sørensen
5. “Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” Evgeny Afineevsky and Den Tolmor

Best Documentary Short Film

1. “Chau, beyond the Lines” Courtney Marsh and Jerry Franck
2. “Body Team 12” David Darg and Bryn Mooser
3. “Last Day of Freedom” Dee Hibbert-Jones and Nomi Talisman
4. “Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah” Adam Benzine
5. “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

Achievement in Film Editing

1. “The Big Short” Hank Corwin
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Margaret Sixel
3. “The Revenant” Stephen Mirrione
4. “Spotlight” Tom McArdle
5. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Maryann Brandon and Mary Jo Markey

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

1. “Son of Saul” Hungary
2. “Mustang” France
3. “Theeb” Jordan
4. “Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
5. “A War” Denmark

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega and Damian Martin
2. “The Revenant” Siân Grigg, Duncan Jarman and Robert Pandini
3. “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared” Love Larson and Eva von Bahr

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “The Hateful Eight” Ennio Morricone
2. “Carol” Carter Burwell
3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” John Williams
4. “Bridge of Spies” Thomas Newman
5. “Sicario” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

1. “Til It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
   Music and Lyric by Diane Warren and Lady Gaga
2. “Writing’s On The Wall” from “Spectre”
   Music and Lyric by Jimmy Napes and Sam Smith
3. “Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction”
   Music by J. Ralph and Lyric by Antony Hegarty
4. “Simple Song #3” from “Youth”
   Music and Lyric by David Lang
5. “Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
   Music and Lyric by Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Jason Daheala Quenneville and Stephan Moccio

Achievement in Production Design

1. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Production Design: Colin Gibson; Set Decoration: Lisa Thompson
2. “The Revenant” Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Hamish Purdy
3. “The Martian” Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
4. “Bridge of Spies” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo and Bernhard Henrich
5. “The Danish Girl” Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Michael Standish

Best Animated Short Film

1. “Bear Story” Gabriel Osorio and Pato Escala
2. “World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
3. “Sanjay’s Super Team” Sanjay Patel and Nicole Grindle
4. “We Can’t Live Without Cosmos” Konstantin Bronzit
5. “Prologue” Richard Williams and Imogen Sutton

Best Live Action Short Film

1. “Shok” Jamie Donoughue
2. “Day One” Henry Hughes
3. “Stutterer” Benjamin Cleary and Serena Armitage
4. “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)” Patrick Vollrath
5. “Ave Maria” Basil Khalil and Eric Duponty

Achievement in Sound Editing

1. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Mark Mangini and David White
2. “The Revenant” Martin Hernandez and Lon Bender
3. “The Martian” Oliver Tarney
4. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Matthew Wood and David Acord
5. “Sicario” Alan Robert Murray

Achievement in Sound Mixing

1. “The Revenant” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Randy Thom and Chris Duesterdiek
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff and Ben Osmo
3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio and Stuart Wilson
4. “The Martian” Paul Massey, Mark Taylor and Mac Ruth
5. “Bridge of Spies” Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Drew Kunin

Achievement in Visual Effects

1. “The Revenant” Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer
2. “Mad Max: Fury Road” Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver and Andy Williams
3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Chris Corbould
4. “The Martian” Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence and Steven Warner
5. “Ex Machina” Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Ardington and Sara Bennett