Predictions Friday: Supporting Categories Are Sometimes Really Lead

Supporting categories, of late, have been a great way to cheat the system in that if the leading categories are too crowded, an co-lead actor can be placed in the supporting category instead. The only problem is that it gives them an unfair advantage if they are nominated alongside truly supporting roles. Take, for example, Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl. There is no way she is the supporting character in that film. She’s the lead. The entire film revolves around her. No one could make the argument with a straight face that she belonged in supporting. Yet everyone knew that Brie Larson could not lose Best Actress, so to get a win, Vikander had to go into supporting. A few awards bodies put her in both categories, lead for the Danish Girl and supporting for Ex Machina. The talented Vikander really has the town in the palm of her hand at the moment.

I can think of a few other examples where an actor in a clearly leading role was placed in supporting and won, like Jim Broadbent in Iris, but it really doesn’t make much of a difference. Despite the kerfuffle over “category fraud” – nothing changes because, I think, voters don’t mind being able to have their cake and eat it too. They liked being able to award both Larson and Vikander. In some ways, by placing leads in the supporting categories they are giving voters more options, not less. It’s the nominees who really are at a disadvantage. Thus, voters are never going to be too strict if it means not being able to award someone like Vikander if given the chance.

As with most of the major categories, two things can help get you nominated. 1) Best Picture heat, 2) a performance that is off the charts great by a beloved actor, or someone who has buzz and press surrounding them. Voters tend to go for young and pretty in the female acting categories but the strongest thing any contender can have is Best Picture heat. Look at Rachel McAdams. That was a perfectly fine performance. She did not get nominated because of the performance. She got nominated because the voters loved Spotlight. McAdams nomination for such a small role should have been a pretty good indicator that the film had the stuff to win Best Picture. Thus, I would probably rule out, at this stage, any film that has no Best Picture heat at all.

Last year’s supporting category nominees – Best Pic nominees in bold, almost Best Pic nominees have an asterisk.

Bridge of Spies: Mark Rylance
Creed: Sylvester Stallone
The Revenant: Tom Hardy
Spotlight: Mark Ruffalo
The Big Short: Christian Bale

The Danish Girl: Alicia Vikander*
The Hateful Eight: Jennifer Jason Leigh*
Steve Jobs: Kate Winslet*
Spotlight: Rachel McAdams
Carol: Rooney Mara*

Even Creed was a buzz-worthy potential Best Picture nominee. But we can leave it out for now and just say that almost all of these films and these nominees were at one point being talked about as serious Best Picture contenders, whether they ultimately got there or not. These nominees were part of the handful of films that make it to the top of the screener pile and were watched. They were also – every single one of them – carefully managed by awards strategists. None of these names just popped up out of the blue. Not a single one. That means, films that are fairly obscure, that you know have no possibility of being “in the conversation” probably will not see their actors nominated. On the other hand, if you start with the premise that no publicity is bad publicity and you think that by predicting and/or talking about an obscure performance in an obscure film that movie or that actor might make the movie more money and help the careers of those involved, where’s the harm?

So how about this year’s slate?

Over at AwardsWatch they keep a running tally of predictions and their chart, right now, for Supporting Actress, looks like this [below]. So, given what we know about Best Picture heat, and/or star power, I’ve bolded the films that will have something like Best Picture heat (unless they wipe out early) and put an asterisk after the ones I think have a good shot for whatever other reason, like maybe the name is big enough to warrant attention, or the movie could have Best Picture heat:

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris – Moonlight*
Laura Dern – Wilson*
Rachel Weisz – The Mercy*
Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Aja Naomi King – Birth of a Nation
Nicole Kidman – Lion*
Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans*

AwardsWatch has listed the following names as “contenders”

Shohreh Aghdashloo – The Promise*
Jennifer Aniston – The Yellow Birds*
Annette Bening – Rules Don’t Apply*
Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply*
Olivia Colman – The Lobster
Laura Dern – The Founder
Aunjanue Ellis – The Birth of a Nation
Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women
Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women
Allison Janney – Tallulah*
Nicole Kidman – How to Talk to Girls at Parties*
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ
Laura Linney – Sully
Rooney Mara – Lion*
Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky
Janelle Monáe – Hidden Figures
Janelle Monáe – Moonlight
Katey Sagal – Bleed For This*
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures*
Kristen Stewart – Certain Women
Meg Tilly – War Machine

As much as I like Eye in the Sky, there is very little chance Mirren will be nominated for that film, given that (SPOILER ALERT) her character is responsible for a deed that will make most everyone in the audience recoil. So forget it. The Lobster I’m also going to scratch off as being too hardcore for Academy voters, despite how much critics like it. Expect it to be very big with them at the year end awards.  The rest of the names and titles are not on my radar but that doesn’t mean anything, particularly.

My own list of names for Supporting Actress contenders not listed above takes into consideration how certain contenders might be put in supporting either because the lead category is too crowded or they would rather win in the lesser category than be nominated and lose in the top tier. Those names would include:

Sarah Gadon, Indignation* – one of the most breathtaking performances I’ve seen in a while is Gadon – not sure why she isn’t a bigger deal at the moment.
Lupita Nyong’o, Queen of Katwe* – the former Oscar winner should easily bring viewers to see this movie, which may or may not have the Oscar cred.
Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train – sure, it will probably be just a showcase for Blunt but the book affords brilliantly written supporting parts. The last film Tate Taylor made, The Help, won Octavia Spencer an Oscar and had many more potential nominees and winners to spare. Taylor, a former actor, will make sure others in the cast are showcased as well.
Isabella Amara in Wilson – AwardsWatch has Laura Dern picking up heat for this, and that’s definitely possible. Without having seen it, my money is on the younger one who probably has the better role. Just a guess.

If I had to pick the top ten right now I’d go with:
Aja Naomi King – Birth of a Nation
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train
Lily Collins, Rules Don’t Apply* (or Annette Bening, Rules Don’t Apply*)
Isabella Amara, Wilson (or Laura Dern, Wilson*)
Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ

Moving on to Best Supporting Actor, here is how AwardsWatch sees it playing out:

Liam Neeson, Silence
Armie Hammer – The Birth of a Nation
Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Stephen Henderson – Fences
Andre Holland – Moonlight
Aaron Eckhart – Sully
John Goodman – 10 Cloverfield Lane
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins*
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Ben Kingsley – War Machine
Timothy Spall – Denial

OTHER CONTENDERS
Riz Ahmed – Una
Tadanobu Asano – Silence
Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply*
Steve Carell – Café Society
Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures
Adam Driver – Silence
Aaron Eckhart – Bleed for This*
Alden Ehrenreich – Rules Don’t Apply*
Colin Farell – The Lobster
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Garrett Hedlund – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Jack Huston – The Yellow Birds
Edward Norton – Collateral Beauty
Jack O’Connell – HHhH
Edgar Ramirez – Gold*
Jeremy Renner – Arrival*
Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals*
J.K. Simmons – La La Land
Chris Tucker – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
David Wenham – Lion*

It’s hard to know how these things will play out, particularly since there are so many names from the same films. Remember by this time last year no one really thought much about Spotlight as a major player for individual acting honors. I would only add a few names to what they have already:

Tracy Letts for Indignation – a bravura performance by the always great Letts (one of the best things about The Big Short). It’s a small film, no doubt, but it should not be forgotten.
Tom Wilkinson for Denial – Timothy Spall is probably the better bet but Wilkinson is beloved within the Academy.
Kyle Chandler for Manchester by the Sea – are they really going to run both Chandler and Casey Affleck in lead? I don’t think so.
Perhaps someone from Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find them, Jon Voight, Colin Farrell, Ron Perlman, Ezra Miller?

Other than that, I don’t really have any more names to add at present. Here are the ones I would pick for the top ten:

Liam Neeson, Silence
Timothy Spall, Denial
Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea
Armie Hammer – The Birth of a Nation
Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
J.K. Simmons – La La Land
Stephen Henderson – Fences
Jack O’Connell – HHhH
Edgar Ramirez – Gold*
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins*