This year, like last year, and like so many years since Slumdog Millionaire won Best Picture, our winner comes from the time frame of the Telluride Film Festival and/or the Venice Film Festival. This is a pattern that has yet to be broken. The reason for this seems to be that late breakers may come and go, rise and fall but Telluride movies are forever. If they’ve made it out of there and managed to still be on top there is little that can really bring them down.
The frontrunners didn’t strictly come from Telluride but that seems to be the cut off point since Best Picture expanded, as the last film to win outside that time frame was The Departed, which was released in October and didn’t run the film festival circuit. We do not know if it would have won with the preferential ballot, though. Could that be the thing that is shifting the Best Picture always in favor of a film given the festival treatment? It’s hard to say. But we do know that every year since 2009, that’s been the case. Telluride or earlier:
The Hurt Locker (Toronto, the year prior)
The King’s Speech – Telluride
The Artist – Cannes+Telluride
Argo – Telluride
12 Years a Slave – Telluride
Birdman – Venice/Telluride
Spotlight – Telluride
It’s not the longest of histories to go with. I’m here today to tell you that it’s possible if there any year to break the spell it might be this year. Or it could simply be that we really are dealing with only three films that can win, La La Land (Venice/Telluride), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance), Moonlight (Telluride).
These films have been dominating the critics awards so far. We’re heading into the industry phase of the race that kicks off with the SAG awards. That guild seemed to be paring down the list, at least so far, to only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. If you disregard this piece of important information, La La Land, which still doesn’t seem like it can lose, is also in play.
Stats aren’t everything but this was the first test of what the industry thought. We still have a few more to go and La La Land should do very well with those – Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild, Editors Guild. In fact, La La Land could be like Argo, which missed getting a Best Director nomination at the Oscars, where Lincoln was hitting all of the markers leading up to the awards. Showing up important places doesn’t necessarily translate to a win. There are bigger factors at play – how much people love your movie matters. How few people hate it matters it equally when we’re considering a preferential ballot.
Here’s the problem though: There are only two major televised shows leading up to the Oscars: The Golden Globes and SAG. We know La La Land will do very well at the Globes and get a major boost from that. It should have then gone on to sweep the Critics Choice awards. It did win there but they held them early, interrupting the flow of momentum. Once we get to SAG, there are other films that will now be picking up that momentum. Granted, last year, all three major guilds went to three different movies, splitting the whole thing up all over the place. In the end, Spotlight would only two Oscars as it beat back The Revenant and Mad Max and The Big Short. Still, Spotlight and the SAG ensemble nomination and the Telluride stat prevailed, amazingly. If The Revenant had won instead, both stats would have gone down. And by the way, it likely would have won if not for the preferential ballot.
If La La Land is indeed the film to beat, which it still seems like it is, you’re also looking at the enduring stigma that films with Best Actress winners aren’t common winners:
In all of SAG’s 21 year history, only 4 Best Actress winners there won while starring in a film that eventually won Best Picture:
Gwyneth Paltrow – won SAG/Oscar for Actress and Ensemble/Best Picture.
Annette Bening, American Beauty – won Ensemble/Best Picture
Renee Zellweger, Chicago – won Ensemble/Best Picture
Hillary Swank – won SAG/Oscar for Actress and Best Picture
Despite my five minutes of flirting with Moonlight as a potential Best Picture winner, it probably can’t be. Not just because it’s “too black and too gay” but because it’s moody and contemplative, rather than direct and obvious. As powerful and moving as it is, we have the steak eaters and the mostly white, mostly straight male Academy members.
If you take out Moonlight and you take out La La Land, you’re really only left with Manchester by the Sea. That is either the Boyhood (Sundance) or it’s the Spotlight (Telluride). It could be either. Hurting it is that it’s emblazoned with “Amazon Studios” on its advertising materials. I’m probably the only person in the known universe who notices or cares but it’s as big a thing as the SAG ensemble in my mind where the Academy voters are concerned. An independent studio is one thing, totally altering the landscape of who makes movies, how they get funded and released is a whole different thing. Still, Manchester by the Sea looks like a very strong contender to me. It leads the SAG. It’s driven by a white male protagonist who is lost. Everyone either loves it or likes it. No one hates it. So that might be your winner.
Finally, if we remove SAG from the equation we do have other options besides La La Land for the win, like Hell or High Water, for instance. If we remove Telluride from the equation our options get bigger – like Fences, like Hidden Figures. Being trapped in the time frame of having no time to build a consensus is what hurts movies like these heading into the next phase.
Voting starts soon. In just a couple of weeks, even. It all starts speeding downhill really quickly and there isn’t a lot of time to get their ducks in a row. That’s why the early dates matter like they do. They’re already permanent in the minds and hearts of voters.
So there you have it – a rumination on the confusing, suddenly wide open Best Picture race.