Oscars 2017: The Trickiest Categories to Predict

Kris Tapley does a good job of running down the lingering questions to this year’s Oscar predicting game, along with his predictions. As we head into the last weekend before nominations are announced on Tuesday, there are many unanswered questions in what appears to be, at least right now, a wide open race with no definitive locks. La La Land is likely to be the nominations leader and will head into the home stretch of Oscar season as a juggernaut. Also expected to do well would be Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Lion, Fences, Hell or High Water, and Hidden Figures. From there, it gets a little sketchy – but possibly Hacksaw Ridge for the last Best Picture slot if there are nine nominees. But it could bend in a variety of different directions. There also could be a high profile omission that may or may not set the tone for the mood heading into final voting.

Each branch votes separately in their own category, but then all vote for Best Picture. Generally speaking, if they like a movie enough to nominate it for Best Picture, chances are it will pop up in their category too, give or take. A popular film will pop up in unexpected places, which is sometimes an indicator that it’s going to win at least one Oscar. With so many Best Picture contenders, voters tend to spread the wealth, unless they, like the Hollywood Foreign Press did, fall in love with one and only one movie.

But let’s take a minute to look at what categories might be kind of tricky to predict. We covered Best Picture already, and Best Actress.

Best Actor – BAFTA threw a wrench in the works when they shut out Denzel Washington, AGAIN. That all but cemented Casey Affleck’s win.  And the BAFTA also mucked up the predictions a bit because they added Jake Gyllenhaal instead, along with a host of other nominations for Nocturnal Animals. What could that possibly mean? Well, it COULD mean that Nocturnal Animals pops up all over the place as it did at BAFTA, or it means that the British/American disconnect is strong. They did not bump Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic, however. So the order might shift a little to be: Affleck, Garfield, Gosling, Mortensen, Washington. That is not a reality I want to face. In fact, it would make Oscars 2017 mostly a shit show. None of those other actors can compare to what Washington does in Fences. Sorry fellas. Good try but yeah, no.

At any rate, Sunny Pawar could crack the top five, depending on how popular Lion is with the Academy. The little tyke has been everywhere and I could see them adding him in if they really really love it. I’m still stuck on Ryan Gosling – I’ve long thought he wouldn’t make it in but his pre-noms seem solid.

Adapted and Original Screenplay debacle – since Moonlight and Loving were deemed adapted by Oscar but original by the WGA, we have no idea how this will all go down. Between that and some films not qualifying for the WGA, like Lion and The Lobster, the screenplay categories are up for grabs except for usual locks.

Both categories are hard to predict, and as usual adapted is the most competitive.

Scripts that are or seem locked:
Moonlight – WGA
Manchester by the Sea – WGA
Arrival – WGA
La La Land – WGA
Hidden Figures – WGA
Fences – WGA
Hell or High Water – WGA
Lion – PGA, DGA — not eligible for WGA

That leaves three to pick from:
Loving – has a really good shot since it did make WGA
Nocturnal Animals – WGA, good chance
The Lobster – has buzz, good chance
20th Century Women – maybe but not known how Academy will respond, decent chance
I, Daniel Blake
Jackie
Silence
Deadpool – WGA

I would think it would go like this:

Original
Manchester by the Sea-WGA
La La Land-WGA
Hell or High Water–WGA
The Lobster
I, Daniel Blake or 20th Century Women – fifth slot, tough call.

Adapted
Moonlight-WGA
Arrival-WGA
Hidden Figures-WGA
Fences–WGA
Lion or Loving (but I’ll probably go with Lion)

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The Shorts

I still have a few to watch here or there but it definitely helps to watch them. I’ll be writing up a longer piece about them once I watch all of them – and let me tell you, they are all fantastic. They should all be seen by as big an audience as possible. As usual, the live action shorts are almost almost better than the feature films this year they are so good. Here are the ones that I think will have a good shot:

Live Action

Every single one of these movies made me cry. Every single on. Screw you live action shorts for making a grown woman cry! The Way of Tea and Nocturne in Black really hit hard, though. Like a gut punch.
1. Nocturne in Black
2. Graffiti
3. The Way of Tea
4. Silent Nights
5. La Femme et le TGV

The animated shorts are also just great, each and every one. I’d rank them this way:

1. The Head Vanishes
2. Piper
3. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
4. Inner Workings
5. Borrowed Time

But they’re all great and any of them could land. These are the ones that have stood out to me so far.

Doc Shorts
1. Joe’s Violin
2. White helmets
3. 4.1 Miles
4. Frame 394

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Supporting Actress seems down to:
Viola Davis, Fences – SAG
Naomie Harris, Moonlight – SAG
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea – SAG
Nicole Kidman, Lion – SAG (though I hope the Trump comment didn’t hurt her chances)
The fifth is either going to be Janelle Monae or Octavia Spencer for Hidden Figures. If both get in, that means they really loved the movie and one of the other nominees have to get bumped. Weakest link might be Kidman, who is great in the part, but is already an Oscar winner.

Best Supporting Actor seems down to:
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight – SAG
Dev Patel, Lion – SAG
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water – SAG
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins – SAG
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea or Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Taylor-Johnson has Globe win plus BAFTA nom. Hedges has SAG nom. Whomever gets that slot will tell you how much voters liked Manchester by the Sea.

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Original Score–

Kris Tapley has these predicted:

“The BFG” (John Williams)
“Hacksaw Ridge” (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
“La La Land” (Justin Hurwitz)
“Lion” (Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka)
“Moonlight” (Nicholas Brittel

I think those are all solid choices.  But there are a few things to remember.

1. Hidden Figures is scored by Hans Zimmer and Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch. But Hans Zimmer is not credited by the Academy, so maybe not.
2. Abel Korzeniowski‘s score for Nocturnal Animals is fairly haunting and memorable, could get in because of BAFTA.
3. Mica Levi’s score for Jackie is a love it/hate it kind of thing and Kris makes a good call to omit it. It’s just the kind of non-traditional score this branch tends to bristle at. However, since she’s a female and it’s such a male dominated field,  and it’s ambitious – I think it has a good shot at a nomination regardless of how challenging it might be. I have to admit I’m bedazzled by the score, and sometimes you have to go with your heart.

At the end of the day I’ll probably go with:

La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Lion (Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka)
Moonlight (Nicholas Brittel
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer and Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch)
Jackie (Mica Levi)

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Random notes:

I have to finish watching them to make my final predictions, but those are the ones that have made the most impact so far. Picking the winner out of that group is going to be impossible. They are all great.

So, what of I, Daniel Blake? Is it a movie that the Brits will ram through and get some nominations like screenplay or director?

What of Silence and where it will land? Will it hit Cinematography, Production Design, Picture, Director? Or will it be 100% shut out. What of Deadpool? Will it get any sort of major category nominations or will it be confined to the sound and effects categories?

Will they let Tom Ford into the club? Will they forgive Mel Gibson finally? Which film is going to get burned? I have no idea.

But, by all means, ask me anything. I’ll try to answer in the comments as best I can.