Twitter can be disorienting for Oscar watchers if you follow a handful of biased, overly enthusiastic types who can lead you astray when it comes to knowing what a consensus of industry voters will do, as opposed to what a handful of pundits might do. Polls work because sociologists discovered that people raised with the same set of cultural beliefs will, by and large, react to events in a similar way — even a backlash or a change of sentiment can be detected from poll responses. Pollsters have made a science of how to target representative subsets of a larger whole. The critics constitute a sample, but the individuals represent a specific type of person. They used to be mostly East Coast, college-educated whites. But the fanboy movement and the internet did something to alter the tone of film criticism — it blew the demographic wide open so that now almost anyone can be a critic. The New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics have remained more consistent with the way critics have always been. But there are so many more critics groups voting now, including the Broadcast Film Critics, who really stretch the definition of the word “critic.” Either way, a lot of the Twitter buzz seems to be more in line with this looser way of thinking, where the critics either live or want to live, taste wise.
That said, the critics and the Academy have still been overlapping more of late because of the shrinking selection of the kinds of movies that Oscar voters like. Hollywood is changing, but the rules of the AMPAS are mostly staying the same. Dee Rees’ Mudbound should make history with the first black woman nominated for Best Director, but that may not happen, partly because the cool kids so far aren’t hot for it, and partly because there seems to be stubborn resistance to the Netflix brand. Progress is only moving in one direction, though, and the traditionalists can only hold out for so long.
If anything, it seems likely that Greta Gerwig will make the cut because that’s Lady Bird is the type of movie old white dudes really really like. It’s a very good film and deserving of awards, but if we’re talking about a 70% white male middle-aged Academy we have to think about what movies directed by women those voters respond to, and they are responding to this one. Women directors this year made Mudbound, Detroit, Battle of the Sexes, and The Beguiled, but none of those seem to have captured the same sort of energy and buzz as Lady Bird. They are all pretty heavy movies with heavy themes. Some have been deemed too controversial to go for, and the others, at least so far, haven’t found any sort of major momentum. So if you’re going to pick a woman out of the crowded field of women this year for a Best Director nomination — only the 5th in their 90 year history — the best bet is to go with Gerwig.
Good buzz is definitely surrounding a few movies right now and lagging for some others. That is going to change in the coming months. Buzz coming too early can evaporate by the time it comes for the guilds and the Academy to vote. Hype around one movie, or early awards for that movie, can boost the expectations of that movie way too high so that when people finally do see it, they think, “Really? Is that all there is?” That has already happened to me with a few movies this year that had a lot of early hype. Flying under the radar can be the safest way to go for a winner. But for a film like Lady Bird, buzz and hype are really great things since it would ordinarily be difficult for this kind of film to break through. Right now, it looks like a green light. Whatever my own personal feelings about any movie, I must shove them aside and look at how everyone else feels about it.
At this moment, believe it or not, I’m starting to wonder if Lady Bird might just win the whole thing. I know it seems improbable, but you have to wonder if a film like that can capture the momentum in a year where women have taken it on the chin everywhere — from politics to harassment to outright assault _ and the nagging notion that they can’t catch up to men in the industry. You have to wonder if a film like this could actually win both Best Picture and Best Director, becoming only the second film directed by a woman in 90 years to do so. I am starting to wonder myself if Lady Bird might not go all the way.
Then we have the problem of the hive mind and controversies that can spring up here or there for various reasons that we can’t foresee at the moment. All it takes is one prominent piece of writing damning a movie or a director for something and then people latch onto that grievance. How they define themselves becomes wrapped up in how they view a film that’s stirring mixed feelings, as we saw happen with La La Land last year. But usually that only occurs when a film has massive momentum and starts winning awards. That kind of adulation always tempts people to start taking shots at the winners.
We’re still not anywhere near there yet. Right now, it’s all quiet on the Oscar front, with a month to go before awards are handed out, with the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review leading the way.
But let’s take a quick look at what we think could win. And by “win” that means you have a DGA nomination, a PGA nomination, and a SAG ensemble nomination. Stats were made to be broken, and truly any movie can break a stat if people like it enough. But if you want to look at why these precedents matter, it’s because to win a film really needs to be broadly liked by thousands of people.
One way to tell back in the early days of Oscar was to see how the public responded, as measured by box office returns. That can sometimes help these days, but not always. The King’s Speech and Argo are really the only two big money makers to win since the Best Picture lineup was expanded to more than five nominees. The Hurt Locker ($16 mil), The Artist ($44 mil), 12 Years a Slave ($56 mil), Birdman ($42 mil), Spotlight ($45 mil) and Moonlight ($27 mil) weren’t successful at the Oscars because they were box office successes. Of course, they weren’t bombs either. They still turned a tidy profit. As we can see, box office can have an impact if the film is expected to make a lot of money but then doesn’t. Made on a frugal budget, most of these films weren’t expected to make a lot of money so they were considered medium-scale successes. Everyone in the industry now understands what it takes to become a massive blockbuster.
But let’s see where everything fits into what we know so far, loosely ranked in order of those that seemingly have what it takes based on our criteria.
Best Picture —
Frontrunner: None
1. Dunkirk – One of the years smash hits. Historical. Important. Cinematic. $187 million / budget $100 million.
–DGA nomination seems very likely.
–PGA nomination seems highly likely.
–SAG ensemble nomination is possible.
2. Get Out – Surprise hit. Cinematic. Important. Revolutionary in its ideas. $175 million / budget $4.5 million.
–leads Gotham nominations.
–PGA for sure.
–DGA very likely.
–SAG ensemble likely.
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Very funny. Timely. Important. Cinematic.
–DGA nomination seems very likely.
–PGA nomination seems highly likely.
–SAG ensemble – a leader contender to win.
–WON audience award at Toronto, Screenplay at Venice
4. The Shape of Water – Not yet opened. One of the few films to capture true beauty. A tribute to cinema and a comment on Trump’s America.
–DGA seems very likely
–PGA very likely.
–SAG ensemble seems likely.
5. Darkest Hour – Important. Cinematic. Driven by the potential Best Actor winner.
–PGA seems certain
–SAG ensemble seems certain
–DGA seems likely.
6. The Florida Project – Vital and provocative. Important. Cinematic.
–Gotham Best Picture nominee.
–PGA nomination seems highly likely.
–DGA nomination is a maybe.
–SAG ensemble is a maybe.
7. Lady Bird – Capturing buzz. Winning hearts. Opened big on limited release. Impressive solo debut by Gerwig. It isn’t “important” in the ways Oscar movies often are but it’s necessary storytelling.
–PGA nomination seems highly likely.
–SAG ensemble seems highly likely.
–DGA nomination is a maybe.
8. Call Me by Your Name – One of the most beloved films of the year. Cinematic. Meaningful.
–Gotham nominee for Best Picture.
–PGA nominee seems likely.
–DGA nomination possible.
–SAG ensemble possible.
9. Mudbound – One of the most important films of the year in terms of profound message. Cinematic.
–PGA nomination seems likely.
–DGA nomination is possible, maybe a long shot.
–SAG ensemble nomination seems very likely.
Each of these nine films have a shot to win, I think. We have not yet seen Steven Spielberg’s The Post, so it’s hard to say whether that will land with SAG, the DGA, or the PGA. It’s starting to look like Get Out, Three Billboards, or Lady Bird might have the best shot to win, rising with a bullet. Each are wholly original and each would definitely be the kind of thing that once the wave crests, might be unstoppable. The Florida Project is a heartbreaker and will be very hard to hate. It’s a beautiful, sad, sweet movie that might end up with a lot of number one votes. And then there are the bigger movies like Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, and The Shape of Water. We really do not seem to have a Best Picture frontrunner yet. Any of these can win. But just remember: PGA/DGA/SAG — Best Picture usually needs nominations from all three.
Best Actor
Frontrunner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Actress
Frontrunner: none
A completely wide open race with many challengers and no frontrunners. Although any actress can win, here are those I think right now have the best shot:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (would be her second Oscar win)
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (first nomination and first win)
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (first Oscar win)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (would be her first Oscar win)
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (first Oscar win)
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project(first nomination and win, because you just never know)
There are other possible names floating around, even Meryl Streep for The Post. But no one yet knows how that will play. It’s still a big mystery. The critics might pick someone else to be their darling that they get behind to push through the season, maybe someone like Kristen Stewart in Personal Shopper.
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunner: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Main challenger: Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards, at the moment.
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunner: Alison Janney in I, Tonya
Main challengers Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird and Mary J. Blige in Mudbound
Original Screenplay
Frontrunner: None
Challengers:
Get Out
Three Billboards
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
The Big Sick
The Post
Detroit
Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunner: Call Me By Your Name
Challengers: Mudbound, Molly’s Game
Editing
Frontrunner: Dunkirk probably
Challengers:
Get Out
Three Billboards
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Cinematography
Frontrunner: Dunkirk vs. Blade Runner 2049
Challengers:
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water
Mudbound (first woman to ever be nominated in this category!)
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk could end up being the most nominated film and could end the night with a whole bunch of Oscars: both the sound Oscars, maybe the editing, maybe cinematography. We don’t know if that means it will split with another movie for Picture or whether we will finally see the sort of big sweep that’s not happened since the Academy expanded the ballot.
This is a snapshot of where we are today.