The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg has posted his latest Feinberg Forecast, folding in Steven Spielberg’s eagerly anticipated film The Post. While bloggers and critics are barred from “social media sentiment” and “reviews,” no one said anything about Oscar predictions. I have added my own to Gold Derby and to our own Oscar tracker, and Feinberg currently has The Post predicted for:
Best Picture (behind only Dunkirk)
Best Actor – Hanks
Best Actress – Streep
His Best Picture predictions, as follows:
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
The Post (Fox) NEW
Get Out (Universal)
The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight)
The Florida Project (A24)
Lady Bird (A24)
Darkest Hour (Focus Features)
Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics)
The Big Sick (Amazon)
My comment: These seem right to me, give or take one or two.
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Sean Baker (The Florida Project)
My comment: These seem right to me – I had them all except Baker. I’m not sure about the fifth slot — might be Greta Gerwig, might be Joe Wright, but probably most likely Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Tom Hanks (The Post) NEW
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
My comment: this is a wide open category with no locks except the frontrunner to win. Feinberg is not including Daniel Day-Lewis because he has not yet seen the film.
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
My comment: I think Feinberg is wrong about leaving out Sally Hawkins.
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
Ray Romano (The Big Sick)
My comment: I would swap Ray Romano for Bob Odenkirk for The Post – if they like it enough to give it Pic, Dir, Actor, and Actress nominations there’s a good chance Odinkirk gets in as his performance is just as strong as the others. Not sure both Call Me actors get in — Hammer yes, but not Stuhlbarg, who is better in The Shape of Water. Instead, I’d go with either Mark Rylance for Dunkirk (it will have to get an acting nom at least to be the frontrunner to win Best Picture) or Ben Mendelsohn for Darkest Hour.
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Hong Chau (Downsizing)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
My comment: Agree with these though I think Mary J. Blige will take Holly Hunter’s spot but it will depend on how much they like The Big Sick.
He’s got The Post with seven nominations total at the moment. Maybe. But if voters really like it enough to give it a Picture and Director nomination in a competitive year I suspect it will get more nominations than that, although Feinberg does not have costumes on here and it should get in for that with Ann Roth. He has it for Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Score, Cinematography, Production Design. I think, if they like THAT much, it would be in for: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Score, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design — 10/11 nominations. If they don’t like the movie, it will get in for techs (costume, production design, cinematography) and Meryl Streep.