For a while there, the Best Actress race seemed to have cooled down. It looked like it was probably Saoirse Ronan’s to lose since she kept picking up wins with the critics. Sally Hawkins (who shockingly benefited from the one win the National Society didn’t give to Lady Bird) and Frances McDormand were in play but no one seemed to be seizing the season like Ronan had. That was and remains because Lady Bird is doing so well leading up to nominations, but also due to what appeared to be a muted reception for I, Tonya and Molly’s Game. Well, now it’s a real race because both those films have suddenly become forces to be reckoned with, surging back into popularity with the guilds, most notably the Writers and Producers Guilds, making many wonder if either or both can make the leap to Best Picture.
Of course, Oscar voters must only select five, not ten, Best Picture titles on their nominations ballots, but both Tonya and Molly movies appeal to the largely male voting bodies, given the nature of the films — sports oriented-ish with women who are easy on the eyes. You know that voters are, at the very least, going to watch these screeners if they’re interested in the subject matter. Word of mouth has been pushing I, Tonya along, and it made major gains in the last week. Both of these films are driven by bravura, brilliant, show-stopping performances, as Ronan’s is, as Sally Hawkins’ is and of course, as Frances McDormand’s is.
As we discussed in our recent podcast, Best Actress is a whole different kind of race from any of the other acting categories. It is something that requires almost a full year’s commitment to being a red carpet goddess — appearing everywhere, looking fantastic, never allowing for someone else to overshadow you at an event. That isn’t easy to do and it requires a full understanding of what this award has always meant and still means to this day. It is often less about the performance itself — it’s partly that — but it’s so much more about who that person is during the campaign season. They expect the goddess to appear and be radiant and nothing else will do. Even when the woman is older than your typical winner might be, the goddess must appear — Helen Mirren, Julianne Moore — they have to show up dressed to the nines and claim their right to the throne.
Every so often someone squeaks through on merit alone but it’s extremely rare. Usually it’s a little of both, but if you have two performances you believe are equal to each other and one of them is someone you’ve fallen in love with you’re probably going to throw your vote that way. How can you not?
The Globes might not throw a wrench into the Best Actress race, but if Jessica Chastain wins in Drama or if Margot Robbie wins in Comedy, well, things are going to shift really quickly. Chastain has no SAG nomination, which means it’s harder for her, of course. There are only two big acting prizes left after the Globes, the BAFTA and SAG. If Ronan aces those, the Oscar is hers.
McDormand isn’t going to summon the goddess to win this prize. We all know that she is 100% no bullshit up one side and down the other. The last thing she’s going to do is spend months dressing up and schmoozing around town. Maybe she’ll show up if nominated — she probably will — but her goddess persona is more like a god, on the level of Zeus. McDormand’s performance is so good it is a threat in and of itself, without the schmooze machine backing it. But we all know that to win this you have to show that you want it. Really really REALLY want it. And that can backfire too. The goddess must never appear desperate. She must be gracious and spontaneous and always humbled to take the stage, always aghast at her win, even if she knew it was coming, always on the brink of tears, with a quivering voice.
Okay, I’m going a little overboard here. But you get the idea. The point here is that two formidable goddesses have just entered the room with their A-game. They will be glittering, formidable, goddess-like at each of these shows.
Best Actress right now has SAG with these:
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
These two are hot on their trail:
Meryl Streep, The Post
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Your job, if you choose to accept it, is to pick five out of those seven.
All in all, it’s fairly exciting to have so many films driven by strong women headed straight for the Best Picture race. Bring. It. On.