For most of Oscar history, the director has determined Best Picture. With a few shakeups here or there – a Reds and Chariots of Fire, a Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan, a Gladiator and Traffic – there were splits but they were rare. In the nine years since the implementation of the preferential ballot, Best Picture and Director have split four times and not split five times. We believe we are in the midst of a split year but we might not be. The answer could lie not with the DGA, but with the WGA, the writers guild, where three of the Best Picture contenders will go head to head next weekend.
Spotlight and Moonlight followed very similar trajectories, almost exactly. Both were low key Telluride films about something important from independent studios going up against seemingly unstoppable frontrunners. Both were human stories, driven in large part by their screenplays. Both won the Gotham award, both lost the Producers Guild and Directors Guild, though both were nominated for SAG ensemble, Spotlight even won there. If this is the new normal in the Oscar race, we’re probably looking at a similar scenario this year. They key win for both of these films was the Writers Guild Award. The reason that mattered was that the screenplay, not the director’s vision, carried those movies through to Best Picture. Spotlight only won one other Oscar and it was screenplay. Every film that has won Best Picture under the preferential ballot since 2009 also won screenplay except The Artist, a silent film.
The odd ball year to figure out was 2013, where 12 Years a Slave went up against Gravity. The question to ask is would 12 Years a Slave, which won the Oscar for screenplay, have also won the WGA? Chances are yes. How we know this is that it won the Scripter that year, beating Captain Phillips which won the WGA when 12 Years was ineligible.
The films that have won Best Director but not Best Picture were not movies honored for their writing. Those that won Best Picture were. That is why the WGA next weekend could turn out to be the most important win in all of Oscar season in determining the winner. Obviously not being eligible for the WGA did not hurt 12 Years, nor the King’s Speech. That means that Three Billboards, were it to surprise, say, at BAFTA and head into voting as in the game, with its SAG ensemble win behind it, a potential screenplay win, theoretically win Best Picture too. You just never know.
So, here is what we are looking at.
The Shape of Water wins PGA, DGA, BAFTA Picture + Director, then wins the WGA? That sets it up for a much better chance of defeating the SAG ensemble stat than Gravity, The Revenant or La La Land, none of which had the kind of screenplays that drive a winner.
Get Out surprises and wins the WGA – I would look for the potential it could also upset, Spotlight style, winning Screenplay and picture.
Lady Bird surprises and wins the WGA – if it is enjoying a momentum surge it might win Picture, Screenplay and perhaps one other Oscar, like Supporting Actress.
Three Billboards sweeps the BAFTAs, heads in with SAG ensemble, wins Picture, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor, and maybe one or two other Oscars. Honestly, if it had a Best Director nomination, this would seem like a very plausible scenario.
Final note: It’s crazy bizarre to have all of these films up for Best Picture and Original Screenplay. It’s unprecedented. We should expect strange things to happen.
I made some rough charts. Probably there are mistakes or two but in case you’d like to see them:
