Three Billboards has been our stats champ since the season began. No film had all of the markers we usually use to find a Best Picture winner under the preferential ballot:
NBR top ten
Globe Best Director (and/or picture)
All of them missed one thing. Shape of Water and Three Billboards were missing NBR. Lady Bird and Get Out were missing Globe director. Shape was missing SAG ensemble.
When you fold in BAFTA, Lady Bird and Get Out are both missing both director and picture nominations there.
Three Billboards, which won the Toronto audience award, was always in the lead because it had hit so many markers. And even now, has an editing nomination. It is missing the Best Director Oscar, which matters but doesn’t so much since Ben Affleck blew through that stat in 2012.
But take a look at this chart. Just the combination of SAG and BAFTA wins are significant. To have won both British Film and Best Picture at BAFTA, along with SAG ensemble, not to mention Globe and Toronto puts Three Billboards in very elite company, both before and after the preferential ballot. In fact, it’s the only film that has ever hit Toronto, Globe, SAG and Bafta and won in the era of the preferential ballot.
Of course, the films that won here also won PGA and DGA, as Argo did and The King’s Speech did. Still, it’s quite incredible to see this. People write it off as “that’s how foreigners see us.” And that’s probably true. Get Out could be the film that does better on the preferential ballot (my poll is useless because it, too, became co-opted by Call By Your Name fans – and unless you believe that film is going to win, I can’t use THAT poll).
Three Billboards has to win on the first round, which it might. But it’s a squeaker. A lot of people believe that Dunkirk and Shape are also in play – and they might be. DGA winner could trump all. Both are gathering steam here in the final act. BUT you can’t deny one thing that always matters in a tight year like this one.
The biggest branch in the Academy could be the difference here.
It’s a cliffhanger, my friends!