Our Big Bad Prediction Chart is up and running. We’re going to keep adding to it – and it’s far from perfect. But since people keep asking, here it is.
Main Chart | Tech Chart 1 | Tech Chart 2
Our Big Bad Prediction Chart is up and running. We’re going to keep adding to it – and it’s far from perfect. But since people keep asking, here it is.
Main Chart | Tech Chart 1 | Tech Chart 2
Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
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Not sure if you want updates or not, but per Gold Derby, Simanton has changed to Get Out and Wloszczyna has changed to Three Billboards for BP. Just FYI. Also, Sasha isn’t listed in the Main Predicts page.
O’Neil updated his Animated and Live Action shorts this afternoon to Basketball and DeKalb. FYI
Re-post:
I was wrong about this, too. 🙂 There IS a bit more stats work to be done… (And I guess there will be more after the Spirits, too, potentially.)
Of the 15 Best Picture Oscar winners to have competed at the Gold Derby Film Awards, 12 won either for Best Picture or for Best Ensemble there. The King’s Speech (which wasn’t nominated for either of those) and Million Dollar Baby won for their lead actor/actress, instead. Slumdog Millionaire is the only one that didn’t win for any of those, but it did win for its screenplay – which, of course, a lot of the others did as well. So, if we’re looking for a 100% stat (which is kind of necessary with a sample size as mediocre as this): the Best Picture Oscar winner has never, in the 15 years of Gold Derby Awards (this year being the 16th), not won for either picture, ensemble, screenplay or lead actor/actress at those.
This year, the winners in those categories were:
Call Me By Your Name (picture, screenplay and lead actor)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (ensemble and lead actress)
Get Out (screenplay)
So, no Shape of Water… Of course, some winners won director here, too, like Shape did (though it is only 5/10 that did, somewhat surprisingly), but one simply can’t formulate a 100% stat similar to this one that says Three Billboards won’t win BP, like one can for Shape, because Spotlight only won ensemble and went on to win BP, and Billboards has that win this year. And Birdman only won ensemble and lead actor, of the major categories – it also won cinematography. Also, Million Dollar Baby only won lead actress (and The King’s Speech only lead actor), as has Three Billboards. One can formulate a 100% stat that says Get Out won’t win BP, but it’s a lot shakier than for Shape, because one would have to include a minor category, original score (Slumdog Millionaire won only that and screenplay), which seems utterly random and out of tune with this stat.
I think this is the first 100% stat I’ve found based on a single group (maybe there are some critic award stats that say the same, I don’t know – I’m talking about post-critics phase) that says The Shape of Water won’t win Best Picture (as the WGA loss + 1 rule is based on at least two different groups). Like the BFCA stat that says the same thing about Lady Bird. And the also 100% Oscar stat (about being in the top 7 most nominated movies of the year) that says Get Out or Call Me By Your Name won’t win. If anyone knows of any 100% stat based on results from a single group of awards voters that says Three Billboards can’t win, I’d obviously be very interested to know about it – even after the Oscars, I’ll be just as interested. Even if it means I have to have something else winning BP rubbed in my face. 🙂
(Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying this makes Three Billboards some massive favorite. Or even slightly more of a favorite than before these were announced. Just that it’s a stat…)
Another thing I’d like to note is that all five of the most accurate experts (based on how often they’d gotten it right up to and including 2015, but at least Tom O’Neil and Thelma Adams both got Spotlight right, too, and almost nobody got Moonlight, so I don’t think the situation has changed) when it comes to Best Picture in the Big Bad Predictions Chart (as of last night – I understand that’s getting updated) were predicting Three Billboards for Best Picture. I’m talking about, in addition to the two I aleadey mentioned, Tariq Khan, Michael Musto and Glen Whipp. Brad Brevet and AD’s Most Likely also had excellent records, but I didn’t see them in the chart last night. It’s interesting that none of the five I did see is predicting Shape or Get Out… The situation was the same the Birdman and 12 Years a Slave years, even though then, too, there were a lot of people that had Boyhood/Gravity instead. Like I said before… I like our team…
You should include all the expert predictions from here: http://www.metacritic.com/feature/predictions-for-2018-oscars-who-will-win?ref=hp
I am predicting Three Billboards to win. I am basing it on a kind of a stat(I haven’t actually checked how strong it is but it’s still convincing), which says that the stronger film in major categories will come out on top in BP. Three Billboards is certain to win at least two major awards, perhaps three if it also won BOS, while The Shape looks certain to win only BD in major categories. The only recent exceptions where the film which won less major award yet still won BP are “Chicago” and “Gladiator” but both of their main competitors were missing SAG and PGA. “The Pianist” won Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay and still lost to “Chicago” which won only best Supporting Actress. “Traffic” did even better by winning Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Supporting Actor AND Editing(Which can be counted as major since a nomination is very big in term of BP) yet still lost BP to “Gladiator” which only won Best Actor. The other few examples I found are “Hannah and Her Sisters” and Network” losing to “Platoon” and “Rocky”.
I am sure people will find more in the early years of the Oscars but I think this is big trend and a huge indicator. That’s why I predict Three Bullshit. I could easily be wrong and I hope I am.
To be true, I predicted “Shape of Water” to win until I saw it. It didn´t really work for me, especially the love story with the creature, and now I´m sceptical if the fantasy elements of the story will work with enough voters to win. “Three Billboards” looks more in compliance with the kind of films that won recently: Smaller films, zeitgeisty, a little edgy…
For the record, the exceptions to this besides Chicago, Gladiator, Hannah and Her Sisters and Rocky are the following:
Spotlight (The Revenant won 2, Spotlight only 1)
Chariots of Fire (On Golden Pond had 3, Reds had 2, Chariots of Fire only 1)
The Godfather (Cabaret had 3, The Godfather only 2)
The Greatest Show on Earth (High Noon had 2, The Greatest Show on Earth only 1)
An American in Paris (A Place in the Sun had 3 and A Streetcar Named Desire had 3, An American in Paris had 0)
Hamlet (The Tresaure of Sierra Madre had 3, Hamlet only 1)
Gentleman’s Agreement (Miracle on 34th Street had 3, Gentleman’s Agreement only 2)
Rebecca (The Grapes of Wrath had 2, The Philadelphia Story had 2, Rebecca had 0)
You Can’t Take It With You (Jezebel had 2, Boys Town had 2, You Can’t Take It With You only 1)
The Great Ziegfeld (The Story of Louis Pasteur had 2, The Great Ziegfeld only 1)
Grand Hotel (Bad Girl had 2, Grand Hotel had 0)
Wings (7th Heaven had 1, Wings had 0)
Where the fuck is “Best Song”?
I WROTE THIS ON GOLD DERBY ON AROUND 25TH NOVEMBER WITHOUT WATCHING ANY MOVIE EXCEPT FOR TRAILERS !
If you cannot intuitively recognise 3 Billboards as the likely winner then you may want to try some Sherlock Holmes ”deductive reasoning” ..ergo eliminate the suspects who didn’t commit the murder and the sole one that remains, however unlikely, surely did !
DUNKIRK …a dry, soulless docudrama-like movie that’s likely to win only Tech awards and possibly Best Director
DARKEST HOUR …a good Historical biopic about Churchill that’s likely to win Oldman a Best Actor Oscar, but it’s unlikely to win BP for the same reasons that Lincoln didn’t
CMBYN…a well constructed, well polished, but tedious queer film that seems frivolous in these politically charged times…it’s likely to only win Best Adapted Screenplay
THE POST ..the most anticipated, overrated movie of the year with three famous names that fail to stop it becoming a bore-fest …few voters will care about a political cover-up of an unpopular 1970s war …a mere footnote of History
SHAPE OF WATER … a beautifully shot retro movies set in the late 1950s that is obliquely political and is an ode to classic film for those folks who love movies ;Del Toro may win a best Director Oscar.. unfortunately it’s handicapped by the fantasy genre , as such, those who Tom O Neil refers to as the ”steak eaters” will not go for it
MUDBOUND, LADYBIRD and GET OUT are just not going to win Best picture
Three Billboards outside Ebbing Missouri is the obvious winner !
It’s likely to win best Actress, Best Supporting Actor , Best original Screenplay AND get a Best Director nom
It captures the zeitgeist better than any of its competitors ….female empowerment, police brutality and racism in Missouri
It’s great entertainment and is playing well in theatres across the country
The Academy have shown they like these type of Coen Bros/Tarantino-like movies with their black humour ….they liked McDormand in Fargo enough to give her an Oscar …her performance in 3 Billboards is even better
————————————————————————
Written at Gold Derby on November 25
It chills me to the bone that everybody thinks Dear Basketball is going to win.
It just can’t, right? (But then again, I thought that about Gary Oldman winning Best Actor and Three Billboards winning Best Picture. I’ve been wrong about those all season long, too.)
I am really struggling with Cinematography. The last five years the film that won Best Director also won Best Cinematography; and Deakins has won BAFTA and ASC before, and still gone home empty-handed on Oscar night. As much as I want Deakins to win, I have a feeling Laustsen will take home the Oscar for Shape of Water.
Picture, Cinematography, Song , and VFX are the four categories I feel the least confident about.
Picture… either Shape of Water or Get Out
Cinematography… either Deakins or Laustsen
Song… either Remember Me or This Is Me
VFX… either Blade Runner 2049 or War For The Planet of The Apes
You can catch my predictions here:
https://youtu.be/7KC_HlKveWg
I find it surprising how many people have their BP winner getting ONLY BP.
Just checked Kris Tapleys picks: His pick for original screenplay is NOT Get out, but Three Billoards.
Yeah, that’s strange. If you think Three Billboards is winning two acting award plus screenplay, then you have to predict it to win, surely?
I would put it this way: If you believe “Three Billboards” wins Best Picture, it makes no sense at all to believe it loses screenplay – because if there´s enough support for this film to win even with the preferential ballot, they will certainly also want to honor screenwriter McDonagh (kind of a compensation).
[I predict 4 Oscars for “Three Billboards”, even though it´s my least favourite of all nominees: Best Picture, Acress, Supp Actor and Screenplay]
Hi there Sasha,
On behalf of all your followers of AWARDS DAILY
I would like to express a big “Thank You” for your great work of the whole Oscar season.
Your loyal follower from Europe.
I cannot see Original Song…
Don’t get it why Anne Thompson is predicting Metcalf…., like seriously?
I suspect based on the other data here this is from her Gold Derby picks that were made Feb 22. I suspect they will be updated and she will switch back. Then again, she has one of the lowest track record scores over 14 years (11/14) for S. Actress compared to other pundits (12-14/14) so… Sometimes you try to go big on the possible upset to set yourself out above the consensus score of correct picks overall.