If you haven’t yet our final Oscar contest – here is your chance. We have prizes! You can choose from a cash Amazon gift card for $100, or the House of Woodcock fashion book from Phantom Thread, or a big glossy book on Dunkirk. In the event of the tie we’ll have to figure out a way to negotiate. Give it your best shot!
FINAL PREDICTIONS…
PICTURE:
The Shape of Water
(really wanted to stick to my guns and predict Get Out, but just couldn’t do it)
DIRECTOR:
Guillermo del Toro
ACTRESS:
McDormand
ACTOR:
Oldman
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Janney
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Rockwell
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Get Out
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Call Me By Your Name
FOREIGN LANGUAGE:
The Insult
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Coco
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Faces Places
EDITING:
Dunkirk
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Blade Runner 2049
PRODUCTION DESIGN:
The Shape of Water
COSTUME DESIGN:
Phantom Thread
MAKEUP & HAIR:
Darkest Hour
VISUAL EFFECTS:
Blade Runner 2049
SOUND EDITING:
Dunkirk
SOUND MIXING:
Dunkirk
ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Shape of Water
ORIGINAL SONG:
“This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman
DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Heaven Is A Traffic Jam On The 405
LIVE ACTION SHORT:
The Silent Child
ANIMATED SHORT:
Garden Party
The Shape of Water- 4
Dunkirk- 3
Blade Runner 2049- 2
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- 2
Darkest Hour- 2
I have to admit that this is the first time eyer I haven’t seen the majority of the films nominated. But going by the history of the Awards, you’d have to say that either Shape or Dunkirk have the upper hand on Best Picture because they are the only 2 nominated in BP, Director and Editing. Last year it was only La La Land and Moonlight and we see where that went. I think Shape is too weird of a movie to win. I mean after all its a bout a woman who has sex with the Creature from the Black Lagoon. So even though I only have it winning a few awards this year, my pick for BP is Dunkirk. I think with all the hype around Womens rights that the big surprise of the night will come in the Director category. Everything says it should be Del Toro since he has won everything so far this year. But with Portman making her comment at the Globes about an “all male nomination” I think there will be a lot of lover for Gerwig here. The only other surprise I could see tonight is in Best Supporting Actor. I picked Sam Rockwell for 3 Billboards but the fact that Plummer came in just a couple of months before All the Money in the World was to premiere, could give him an edge. Plus with Harrelson possibly stealing votes from Rockwell that could go anyway.
Looks like I was wrong about this, too. 🙂 There IS a bit more stats work to be done… (And I guess there will be more after the Spirits, too, potentially.)
Of the 15 Best Picture Oscar winners to have competed at the Gold Derby Film Awards, 12 won either for Best Picture or for Best Ensemble there. The King’s Speech (which wasn’t nominated for either of those) and Million Dollar Baby won for their lead actor/actress, instead. Slumdog Millionaire is the only one that didn’t win for any of those, but it did win for its screenplay – which, of course, a lot of the others did as well. So, if we’re looking for a 100% stat (which is kind of necessary with a sample size as mediocre as this): the Best Picture Oscar winner has never, in the 15 years of Gold Derby Awards (this year being the 16th), not won for either picture, ensemble, screenplay or lead actor/actress at those.
This year, the winners in those categories were:
Call Me By Your Name (picture, screenplay and lead actor)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (ensemble and lead actress)
Get Out (screenplay)
So, no Shape of Water… Of course, some winners won director here, too, like Shape did (though it is only 5/10 that did, somewhat surprisingly), but one simply can’t formulate a 100% stat similar to this one that says Three Billboards won’t win BP, like one can for Shape, because Spotlight only won ensemble and went on to win BP, and Billboards has that win this year. And Birdman only won ensemble and lead actor, of the major categories – it also won cinematography. Also, Million Dollar Baby only won lead actress (and The King’s Speech only lead actor), as has Three Billboards. One can formulate a 100% stat that says Get Out won’t win BP, but it’s a lot shakier than for Shape, because one would have to include a minor category, original score (Slumdog Millionaire won only that and screenplay), which seems utterly random and out of tune with this stat.
I think this is the first 100% stat I’ve found based on a single group (maybe there are some critic award stats that say the same, I don’t know – I’m talking about post-critics phase) that says The Shape of Water won’t win Best Picture (as the WGA loss + 1 rule is based on at least two different groups). Like the BFCA stat that says the same thing about Lady Bird. And the also 100% Oscar stat (about being in the top 7 most nominated movies of the year) that says Get Out or Call Me By Your Name won’t win. If anyone knows of any 100% stat based on results from a single group of awards voters that says Three Billboards can’t win, I’d obviously be very interested to know about it – even after the Oscars, I’ll be just as interested. Even if it means I have to have something else winning BP rubbed in my face. 🙂
(Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying this makes Three Billboards some massive favorite. Or even slightly more of a favorite than before these were announced. Just that it’s a stat…)
Another thing I’d like to note is that all five of the most accurate experts (based on how often they’d gotten it right up to and including 2015, but at least Tom O’Neil and Thelma Adams both got Spotlight right, too, and almost nobody got Moonlight, so I don’t think the situation has changed) when it comes to Best Picture in the Big Bad Predictions Chart (as of last night – I understand that’s getting updated) were predicting Three Billboards for Best Picture. I’m talking about, in addition to the two I aleadey mentioned, Tariq Khan, Michael Musto and Glen Whipp. Brad Brevet and AD’s Most Likely also had excellent records, but I didn’t see them in the chart last night. It’s interesting that none of the five I did see is predicting Shape or Get Out… The situation was the same the Birdman and 12 Years a Slave years, even though then, too, there were a lot of people that had Boyhood/Gravity instead. Like I said before… I like our team…
Eventhough they have a good chunk of #1 votes, everyone says CMBYN and LadyBird are dead. In most polls, I saw these voters give #2 or #3 votes to the shape of water. This is why I think TSOW will win best pic, and GetOut will win O.Screenplay
Actually, in my simulation, Lady Bird’s votes went overwhelmingly for Get Out, not TSOW. Just sayin’. 🙂
Gah, fine. As long as it is not 3bills 😛
From most ballots I’ve seen get out votes tend to go to TSOW, I’m wondering if you saw this in yours? Even if the shape of water was eliminated earlier (I don’t remember) I assume you would have some idea?
In the initial count, TSOW’s 42 ballots broke into #2s like so:
• Call Me By Your Name (14)
• Get Out / Three Billboards (TIE: 7)
• Lady Bird (6)
• Phantom Thread (4)
• Dunkirk (2)
• The Post (1)
By the time it was eliminated in Round 6, CMBYN and Get Out were the only two films left standing, and its ballots went 36 for CMBYN and 30 for Get Out.
I am probably completely batshit insane right now, but I just put down Lady Bird for BP, and hear me out for why: I was sitting there, trying to decide between the usual 3 suspects these days–3BOEM, TSOW, & GO–going through all the potential pluses and minuses that your average bunch of Academy members might have been thinking while filling out their ballots a week or so ago, and keeping in mind that, while there are now more women and POC members than ever before, it still skews overwhelmingly white, male, more nervous than they want to admit, and nervous about the perception of the Oscars by the Outside World (read: the self-appointed arbiters of All That Is Good And Noble–and believe me, they exist on both ends of the political spectrum). I had a vision of them sitting in front of their laptops or on their iPhones (did AMPAS send out a mobile-friendly version of the ballot?), fingers trembling slightly over the keys, desperately trying to decide what movie would both make people happy now and, hopefully, keep the Academy from looking too foolish in the future. They’ve heard people bitching about the racist cop and apparently lack of concern for POC in 3BOEM, which makes them twitchy (although not too twitchy to vote for two of the performers); then there’s the fish-fucking movie (yeah, yeah, they know; the guy’s not really a fish, but it’s still a middle-aged actress screwing the Creature from the Black Lagoon, which is still just plain weird); and then there’s the horror movie with white people literally stealing black people’s brains and bodies–sure, it did great B.O., but again, they just did a Black movie last year, plus it’s a horror movie (yeah, yeah, Silence of the Lambs, but Anthony Hopkins can make almost anything classy), plus it’s controversial…and just how the fuck are any of these choices going to look in another 10 or 20 years? “Boy, did the Academy screw the pooch or what, ha ha!” Then their eyes happen to light upon Lady Bird…AHA! They’ve got it! It’s a terrific coming of age story about a young woman–they’ve never had one of those before and it’s about time, plus with #MeToo and #Time’sUp and all of them, it’s about time to throw the girls a bone…*AHEM*…make a female-fronted and -oriented movie Best Picture–it can be the Year of the Woman, damn it! Del Toro will have to settle for Best Director, Peele for Best Original Script, and McDonagh for his two acting winners, but hey, at least the ladies get to take home the top prize for once!…
…and THAT is how it might just be possible for Lady Bird to take Best Picture without winning a single other award that night, thus smashing Every Single Statistic all to hell.
I really don’t think they care THAT much about backlash/genre, enough to reject all three top favorites, the only ones to have won any significant precursors at all. The anonymous ballots confirmed they probably don’t. And there are many other reasons LB almost definitely won’t win – but it still might, I agree with that. It has something like a 2%-5% chance…
I appreciate your scenario bc I love Lady Bird. I would get the biggest kick out of that – like, for the rest of my life! But I have to agree with Claudiu Cristian Dobre on the anonymous ballot thing and other factors.
I’m sure both of you are right, but honestly, the little voice in my ear whispered “Lady Bird” to me, and when I said “Excuse me?” to it, it came back with the above scenario. As I said, probably batshit crazy, and I’m not saying it because of any particular agenda (actually, I have a wee soft spot for Martin McDonagh based on his plays), but hey, weirder shit has happened before on Oscar night…
Lady bird is dead. Has been all along.
When the Oscars 2018 story is written how this overhyped film was viewed by many as a serious Oscar contender will be up there for head-scratching
My heart says CMBYN.
My head says TSOW winning BP on preferrential. While Three Billboards leading on the 1st round on plurality and sweeping the main categories including screenplay. Just like all other award shows this season.
My gut says Get Out make history and win only Best Picture alone. Screenplay goes to 3B, as it won anything that it was eligible and on plurality. Black Panther buzz during the voting period might have helped boost Get Out in the preferrential ballot. Daniel Kaluuya surprise win at the BAFTA Rising Star said something. While there were backlashes against both 3B and TSOW.
Just became very bummed out when doing these because I realised I didn’t watch any of the short film nominees this year, therefore pulling the predictions straight out of my ass (planning a trip to London so didn’t have time to watch them).
Sasha and Ryan,
I was one of the winners in the Nominations Contest. I don’t know If you have received my emails to collect the prize and tried to answer them. I had some problems recently with other people with messages that got stuck in my waste box. They stay there just for a couple of days and my last few weeks have been very complicated. I haven’t checked my personal email every day.
Please let me know. And I hope to win it again on Sunday.
Thanks for another fantastic season!
Hi, JP. I have a question for you. Were you the one I debated 13 Reasons Why with this past summer? I wondered because if so, I have something to tell you. (not anything mean)
Hi Julie! It’s me! Discussing here when the other person has well exposed opinions, like you had, is always good and enriching. Can’t believe they will make a second season. I think it won’t work.