[Update – made a change or two here, added Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate as a contender in Best Actor and put A Star is Born back in cinematography …]
When I look back at this time last year, the post-Venice/Telluride/Toronto predictions, I see us getting pretty close, give or take a title or two. On our Oscar Squad (we’re trying to get that going for this year) chart, I had eight out of the eventual nine Best Picture nominees, only missing Phantom Thread.
But overall, in the other categories we were way off, thrown by a few titles that never got there and not noticing the ones that would end up getting there. Looking back, it’s easy to see just how wrong people can be. This is true across the board, by the way, because at this stage many of us are working from our own preferences since we have nothing else to go on.
In a 9/25 piece, the headline read: “Is it Christopher Nolan’s to lose?” That was before anyone realized Guillermo del Toro was about to take the whole season. Although the Shape of Water was one of my favorite films, it was not getting so much support from the pundit class, who were trying to steer the ship in a direction they wanted it to go. This is what I wrote from last year:
If Nolan is the frontrunner, then who else is up there in terms of consideration? Right now, Gold Derby has tapped the following five for Best Director in their expert’s predictions:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name
Joe Wright, Darkest HourHere are my own choices at the moment:
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Jordan Peele, Get Out
So Gold Derby had just two out of five predicted. I had just three out of five. We were both missing Greta Gerwig (which seems stupid now, looking back) and, of course, Paul Thomas Anderson. Even if we could not have predicted PTA, we very well knew that Three Billboards had won in Toronto: thus, Martin McDonagh should have been on our radar somewhere. That win should have dramatically changed the conversation. It didn’t. When you look back at the recent winners of the People’s Choice award in Toronto, there is a pretty good bet that the winner will be in the conversation for Best Director. But McDonagh, as it turned out, was nominated only for the DGA. That mean 3BB had much less of a chance of winning Best Picture. The lack of an Oscar nod turned out to be a bigger deal than the lack of a SAG ensemble nod. Every year, every race is different, but big wins do change the conversation, especially when they beat other movies heading into the Oscar race.
Thus, Peter Farrelly is a pretty good bet to be at least in the conversation for Best Director. So I go over to Gold Derby and I look at Best Director:
Here is what Gold Derby has:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
And here is what I have:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
There is no way to tell right now whether we will right. In fact, Farrelly could be like McDonagh and get the DGA but not the Oscar nomination. Last year, Paul Thomas Anderson snuck in in the 11th hour and got a nomination because Phantom Thread was just that good. What movies and directors are we still waiting for?
Most notably:
Adam McKay, Vice
Bob Zemeckis, Welcome to Marwen
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
It all depends on what wins what, what shows up where. The critics are likely going to go all in for Roma and that will change the conversation.
Each new win changes the conversation. If someone is left off the very early Golden Globes list for director or screenplay, although it doesn’t mean everything, it changes the conversation. If a film misses out on the also early AFI Top 10 list? And it’s a high profile American film? You start to wonder about its longevity. If plenty of actors have seen a movie but none of the actors get SAG nominations? Well, that’s another thing to think about.
I have certain suspicions of where I think things MIGHT go, but I can’t really go out on a limb to predict those things. Not enough information is known. Not all movies have been seen. And each win changes the conversation.
But for the fun of it, here is a list of predictions today, working from minimal amount of info.
Best Picture
How do you build a Best Picture? As Anne Thompson always says, branch by branch. But when it comes to finding a winner, we look at, give or take, guild by guild. So which movies seem pretty good bets for PGA? DGA? SAG ensemble? WGA? ACE? Which movie will all or most of those? Will that matter is hard to say. What will be the film’s weak link in terms of those nominations?
We can’t possibly know at this point, that’s the truth. The only thing we know right now is that the largest group of people voting for an award so far (Toronto) chose Green Book over Roma, over First Man, over a Star Is Born. That puts Green Book in a position to be represented across the board.
Next in line will be First Man, which, in addition to acting, writing, and directing strengths (Oscar winners and nominees across the board), will also have other crafts guilds and societies nominating it. So it will show up in places none of the other movies at the top of the tree right now will, like production design, visual effects, and sound.
After that, Roma has directing and writing nominations locked up. It also is strong for cinematography and production design. Where it will need help is acting (no known stars) and overcoming being a foreign language film (not typically in the big guild noms).
Then we get to a Star Is Born, which will have the actors. It looks strong for acting, writing, directing nominations, and then, of course, sound mixing — which could come down to this vs. First Man.
Spike Lee looks good for a DGA nomination – BlackKklansman is not only politically important, but it’s also about time for Spike. And it’s a crowdpleaser. It looks good for a SAG ensemble nomination, but there are so many good ensembles this year, it’s going to be very competitive.
I think it looks like this for the top five:
Green Book
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
BlackKklansman
That’s the first tier, at least for now. After that, it also seems like these films might have traction:
The Favourite (SAG ensemble if there ever was one)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (WGA for sure, SAG noms)
Widows (SAG ensemble)
If Beale Street Could Talk (WGA for sure, maybe DGA, maybe SAG)
But without the movies we’re still waiting for, it’s nearly impossible to predict anything. Adam McKay’s Vice, but also Mary Queen of Scots or Welcome to Marwen. It’s impossible to see the whole picture right now.
Black Panther could be pushed, but it will take a village (never say never). It will need to be strong on writing, directing and acting nominations, and will also need anointing from the critics. If the Los Angeles film critics decide Black Panther is worthy of a Best Picture nomination, that could help it a great deal. But remember, this conversation often comes up with Pixar movies. None of them ever cracked Best Picture after they removed the ten nomination ballot (which they only had in 2009 and 2010). Not even for WALL-E.
It has to do with how the ballot is run. Five slots vs. ten slots. With the current system, a film has to be number one on a fair amount – around 200 ballots – to get in. Black Panther will no doubt get into the PGA, but Oscar remains a mystery. The critics would have to award Black Panther Best Picture over Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma. That seems a wee bit unlikely. But never say never.
Contenders:
Black Panther
The Front Runner
First Reformed
Leave No Trace
Eighth Grade
Best Actor
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
[keeping a spot for Christian Bale for Vice]
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
John David Washington, BlackKklansman
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Contenders
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased + Ben is Back
Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Best Actress
[Holding a spot for Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots]
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Viola Davis, Widows
Contenders
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
[Holding a spot for Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns]
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
[Holding a spot for someone in Vice]
Contenders
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Jason Clarke, First Man
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Supporting Actress
[Holding a spot for Amy Adams in Vice]
[Holding a spot for Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots]
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Claire Foy, First Man
Emma Stone/Olivia Colman/Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Contenders:
Linda Cardellini, Green Book
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Contenders
[Holding a spot for Adam McKay, Vice]
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Documentary Feature
Active Measures
Reversing Roe
Free Solo
Watergate
Notorious RBG
Contenders
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Three Identical Strangers
Fahrenheit 11/9
Cinematography
First Man
Roma
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Contenders
Green Book
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
BlackKklansman
The Front Runner
Black Panther
Editing
First Man
BlackKklansman
Green Book
A Star Is Born
Roma
Original Screenplay
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Man
Widows
BLackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
Contenders
The Front Runner
A Star is Born
Boy Erased
Leave No Trace
Production Design
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]
Sound Editing
First Man
A Star is Born
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom
Costume Design
The Favourite
Green Book
[Holding a spot for Mary Poppins Returns]
[Holding a spot for Mary Queen of Scots]
[Holding a spot for Welcome to Marwen]
Original Score
First Man
Widows
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Sisters Brothers
Contenders
[Holding a place for Vice and Ad Astra]
I am going to say that Ga Ga does not get a best actress nom and no Cooper for director either though ASIB will squeak into best pic and land song, sound mixing and score. Black Panther will surprise and get Pic,director, supporting actor and a buttload of tech noms. Widows will be shut out completely while The Favourite will land at least 10 noms Pic, director, actress, sup actress, sup actress screenplay cinematography editing costumes makeup score production design. Cooglar, Lee and Jenkins will make director history by claiming 3 spots the other two will go to dirctors of The Favourite and Roma.. thereby leaving Chazelle, Farrelly and aforementioned Cooper of contention. And like everyone else this is just what I think will happen but I am bound to wrong of some counts as are all you so for those of you insist this will happen or wont happen do me a favor and just admit hey I was wrong and don’;t try to come up with some reason why you weren’t like a lot of you did when Moonlight beat LA La Land. You were wrong. I was wrong last year about The Shape of Water. I thought it was overhyped and would get looked over but a lot of you were right. I don’t get it . It was a decent film but not a classic. I was wrong, The academy didn’t agree. Maybe I am naïve but I honestly believe when it comes to best picture if a voter truly loves ah particular pic that is what they will passionately vote for hence Moonlights win, In a years when its hard to get passionate about the films that is when other factors will come into play.
I wrote that after taking to sleeping pills so forgive the nonsensical rambling. To all of you I wish a Happy Awards season and be nice and respectful to each other, After all it is only movie awards. So don;’t take all the fun out of it by taking it too seriously,
Mahersala ali winning a second? In less than 3 years? Ladies and gentlemen we are in one of the weakest years of this century or the “pundits” are doing career worst work here.
The academy members can have mistakes but they are not stupid. In order to give an actor a second award in that short period of time they have to be tom hanks in forrest gump, and green book is definitely not that type of monumental work. The previous win affects him a lot here. I’m just being realistic here. The only way for him to win is a very poor year in that category
Is very funny how people are trying to make Claire foy happen when its not going to happen, her role is basic as hell, the wife suffering for her husband’s work. Basic as any other women rol this year. Only because she’s in a best picture contender doesn’t make her a contender. Please understand that. Allyson janney won against laurie metcalf in lady bird, the most critically acclaimed film last year, do you work well please.
I can’t understand why Natalie Portman is not getting a big spot there and instead of her you put robbie, kidman and king. What is stopping you? The film? Its a critically acclaimed film, the performance? Is one of the most acclaimed performances of the year, male or female. I mean why? You think her film is not getting a best picture nomination? I’m with you on that, but that stopped janney and vikander oscar chances? Not at all.
i`ve already said Vox Lux is going to be the big surprise when released next december. Very few people saw it (like me) but most critics are praising different aspects of the film, which i also think as divisive as it seems to be will attract younger voters. IMO Portman is a lock for a nom (either lead or supporting). And watch out for Cassidy, original screenplay, editing and cinematography…
Twitter reactions to If Beale Street Could Talk are off the charts.
Since Ida was nominated for cinematography I would think Cold War had a shot. I think it can compete with Roma in foreign language.
No actor in BlackKklansman is a lock to get an individual nod, bet the ensemble is all around effective. The Favourite is certain. Mary Poppins Returns has a stellar cast, as does Widows. First Man supporting actors seem to get cast in the best movies. A Star is Born and Green Book have 4 and 3 noteworthy cast members.
Sandy Powell looks like a near lock for 2 costume design nominations. I would put Willem Dafoe in the first five best actor, and Ben Foster in supporting. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie should get nominations in the near future. Bleecker Street should have her campaign. She is very intelligent and charming. She has 2 more movies in post production and filming 2.
Quick Academy Award Trivia:
Are you a HE:(plus) patron?
A) Yes
B) No
Shoplifters (Kore-eda, ’18): Fuck. Best Palme d’Or winner since The Tree of Life. All hail Kore-eda. If Japan submits this, how do they not nominate it?** (A-)
**Oh, right.
Bryce at the risk of sounding like spamming… the dark horse of the race, Spain’s “Campeones”. There’s a campaign in Hollywood already advocating to cast disabled actors to portray disabled characters, and this film does actually this. It’s been a huge crowdpleasing critical and b.o. hit here in Spain, and while the director is my fave spanish director at work, I think it’s his weakest film to date (C+ *** 1/2) but has a backstory to sell, and it’s as charming as a puppy… think The Full Monty meets Hoosiers and you’ve got a winner in the line of Mediterraneo. I still think it’s Roma to lose, but… this film has surprised everyone so far.
Spanish cinema has been letting me down lately. Who’s the next Almodovar, Erice, Saura, Villaronga???
I’ll even settle for a Vigas Luna successor!
Bigas Luna, for the matter.
Javier Fesser is the best spanish director at work, even if he has only shot two masterpieces, but the other 2 are extremely risky and challenging, almost suicidal projects (he hasn’t made an easy film, to date, he loves challenge). “El Milagro de P. Tinto” is my pick for BEST Picture back in 1998 (worldwide), and “Camino” SHOULD have been an Oscar contender in a fair world and is, in so many ways, so superior to say, “Spotlight”, that is embarrassing to compare them. He’s been snubbed from an Oscar win for his wonderful short “Binta and the Great Idea”, UNICEF funded… he’s better than Luna and Almodovar, to my taste, even Villaronga. My #3 pic for Best Director in Spain’s history after Buñuel and Berlanga. With only 4 movies, several amazing shorts and an outstanding advertising career. A brief example of his advertisement career, pay special attetion to the Sprite – my favorite – and the La Casera one (the last).
Apart from Fesser, my next in line, Nacho Vigalondo (his “Colossal” was my pick for Best Picture worldwide last year, 2017). Only in three years since I was born, I gave Best Picture of the year to a spanish film, 1988 – Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, Pedro Almodóvar -, 1998 and 2017, as mentioned before.
There’s a bunch of great directors at work in Spain: Fesser, Vigalondo, Fresnadillo, Bayona, Amenábar, Álex de la Iglesia, Isabel Coixet, Daniel Sánchez Arévalo (have you seen “Gordos”/ Fat People, 2009?) or Alberto Rodríguez (Marshland is amazing)
They already submitted it.
So good, right? It’s #4 on my list so far this year.
It’s funny all the talk about ASIB winning the Big 5, and you don’t have it being nominated in Screenplay. That was always the weakest link. Musicals have trouble with those.
I’d rank it:
Picture
Directing
Actress
Actor
Screenplay
I have trouble believing Cooper can win both (even either), and I still see this as Close’s year. It’s not as though she’s unknown to the public. Maybe not Bullock-loved, but people know Fatal and Cruella.
Also, I think Dafoe’s getting a nomination. I think he could even win, but that’s a conversation for later.
I think it is peaking too early on buzz. Green Book probably, too. I am stil more confident on something like Spike Lee’s BlackKklansman winning Picture, Director, Screenplay and some acting… in my view, the win is going to go for something that feels original. Green Book, from the trailer, has a strong feeling of iteration of “Driving Miss Daisy”, sorry… so I’m not sold despite its Toronto win. I think that whatever wins Best Picture is going to have a narrative, a background story to sell to the voters. Spike Lee’s overdue career with a poignant and cool film, might be the real frontrunner for the final win. We could compare A star is born to La La Land’s overhype, yeah it won 6 awards but in the end, they chose the completely original storytelling and poignant themes of Moonlight for the big award. BlackKklansman resounds to me, more in the line of The Shape of Water, awarding a living legend for doing what he does best. I have my doubts on First Man since Chazelle is probably overrewarded in the last years and should probably wait. Cuaron just won director not long ago, so probably Foreign Film and cinematography would be considered enough… it’s too early but those are my thoughts on how the race is really shaping… it’s not only the awards and buzz, it’s also the films themselves in the context of the Academy.
“Musicals have trouble with those.”
There’s a big flaw in your logic: ASIB is not a musical. It’s a drama about two characters who happen to be musicians. The only music in the film are songs they sing onstage at concerts. There is no non-diegetic music like in LLL, for example. Or do you consider Nashville a musical as well?
To wit: it’s my understanding that Warner Bros. intends to submit ASIB as a Drama at the Golden Globes, not a Musical/Comedy.
re: Golden Globes, where is that rumor coming from? I’ve seen it elsewhere, just curious.
https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/1041389511106748416
Nashville was submitted in Drama and received 11(!) nominations including 4 Supporting Actress which it lost and 2 now defunct debut nominations. It still only won Song (which also won the Oscar).
I think the same argument could be made for The Jersey Boys. They’re really only performing the songs in non-traditional musical settings, but I think people would still can that a Musical. It certainly was at the Tonys. I think a Musical can have a much broader definition than just “characters breaking into song.”
I think WB would be making a huge mistake putting ASIB in Drama. It could clean up those categories like 3L.
I think the score for BlacKkKlansman stands a good chance to be nominated. It certainly is excellent. Most memorable score of the year so far for me.
Yes and costume design, production design.
Popping in just to give my first (highly unofficial and way too early for my tastes) predictions. (Since I did a draft with a friend and had to have picks ready for that, anyway.) No stats involved, obviously, except indirectly. (And, besides, I said I wouldn’t talk about stats, not that I wouldn’t predict at all.) Haven’t yet been able to see any of the big movies in the race. I just did some research on various relevant things. In any case, these may well be way, way off, in every category…
Picture: A Star is Born (I have my reasons – not terribly strong, of course, since it’s so early – for not picking Roma, First Man, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book or If Beale Street Could Talk – by the way, I wanted Roma in the draft, but I was lucky it was picked before I could, as I then read/considered some new things about it that made me switch; NGNG: The Favourite)
Director: Bradley Cooper (only because I’m picking a Star is Born for BP, and it kinda doesn’t work otherwise, stats-wise – I obviously won’t say in what way, on account of the self-ban; my ranking of the others I think could win is 2. Alfonso Cuaron 3. Spike Lee 4. Damien Chazelle)
Actress: Lady Gaga (probably silly of me to pick her – especially since I’ll also be rooting for her, I’m pretty sure, even more than I already am, once I see the movie -, but these are just for fun, so who cares?!)
Actor: Viggo Mortensen
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (seems weird to give Green Book two acting wins, but, again, why not?!)
Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (my most speculative pick, I guess, and I’ll very likely be wrong; the supporting categories seem the hardest to figure out to me at this point… maybe I should pick Robbie… Regina King looks very strong too, of course.)
My official Best Picture prediction throughout the season (with no explanations, as advertised) will most likely be expressed in the form of a “signature” at the end of each (major) post, IMDb-style… I’ll think about whether there’s a better option than that.
OK, back to the break! 🙂
Claudiu, how wonderful to hear your strong, beautifully informed voice again. Oscar discussion is never the same — never quite as vibrant — without you. Please come back!
Thank you! Always nice to hear from you… I am going to return in full force (with the restrictions outlined at the end of last season) around mid-October (as I do most years), when the first big stat comes into play, the one that actually turned out to be the most telling last season for BP. (I shall, of course, say no more – these things are well-known, and the self-ban must be enforced.)
Don’t know about “informed”, though 🙂 – hopefully, at least, more so than my only other contribution to this season’s race, about a month ago. (Which I’m glad to have been – mostly – wrong about, as I also said at the time.)
Mine…
Picture: BlackKklansman
Director: Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Actor: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife
Supporting Actor: Sam Elliott, A Star is Born (alt: Dick van Dyke, Mary Poppins Returns)
Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman, The Favorite
Original Screenplay: Green Book
Adapted Screenplay: BlackKklansman
Foreign Film: Roma (alt. Campeones, I think it’s the dark horse)
Animated: Isle of Dogs
Apart from Picture, which I can’t… well, picture 🙂 going to that particular movie (again, having seen neither BlackKklansman, nor any other, yet, nor having any real stats to go by, I’m probably way off, but I have to have some sort of opinion and try to rule out some movies based on less-than-impressive reasons, otherwise I couldn’t make any sort of a prediction at this early stage)… very, very reasonable! You’re very likely going to get a lot more of them right than me.
I didn’t go beyond those six categories I mentioned because, well, the aforementioned draft only involved those. I considered looking at screenplay, too, but I decided I’d need to spoil myself on a lot of the movies a bit too much in order to be able to form any non-random opinion, so I abandoned that idea…
Hi, Claudiu! Nice to see your face (avatar) around these parts again. Here are my current predix:
Picture- A Star Is Born
Director- Alfonso Cuaron
Actor- Bradley Cooper
Actress- Lady Gaga
Supp Actor- Mahershala Ali
Supp Actress- Regina King
Adapted- If Beale Street Could Talk
Original- The Favourite
Hi! 🙂 Nice to see you too!
It just seems so unlikely for Cooper to win BD, yet a split with ASIB winning BP seems almost even more unlikely… That’s how early predictions go, I guess, most of the time. No clear-cut paths.
For a change, I’m rooting for another stats-crazy year this time (unlike I have been in recent years), so my (hopefully improved) system gets another proper test. I want a rematch. 🙂
Nobody has ever won both BD and BA, so I certainly don’t see that happening, and Cooper seems much more locked for BA at this point, while I envision BD going to a more respected established director pulling off something trickier — like Cuaron. But then again, even if Cuaron wins, I really don’t see Roma winning BP since no movie has ever won BOTH Foreign Film and BP and it’s certainly winning the former. And ASIB still just feels like it’s the right choice. It’s not gonna be Green Book (too populist, probably no BD nom), not The Favourite (too divisive), not BlacKkKlansman (peaked too early), not Vice (will peak too late). Maybe Beale Street? But that also seems unlikely so soon after Moonlight.
(Sorry, for some reason I only received this reply in my Inbox today…)
Yeah, like I said, it also seems very weird to me for Cooper to win – but I don’t know if the director-actor stat (which I’ve never discussed before, so I can now, even though it’s industry – I’ve not rechecked, but I’m pretty sure I said I would discuss any new stats) is the reason, as I can’t imagine more than a handful of people have ever been nominated for both in the first place. The old argument. 🙂 (The foreign film – BP stat also might be questionable, on similar grounds, but there I have no clue how many films were eligible for both, nominated for BP and won foreign but lost picture, so I’m not as sure.) And, of course, the reason I don’t see ASIB winning picture without director is also based on a stat (nowhere near a 100% one, but one with a much bigger sample). Also intuition, but that’s obviously hit or miss. 🙂 Anyway, it does definitely feel up in the air whether ASIB would win in a split or win both. Neither of these stats feel particularly strong. I don’t think it’s anywhere near clear either way, for now.
I don’t get the hype for A star is born. Its a remake for Petes sake.Lady Gaga an Oscar for her first film because she wasn’t bad?Really?
So you have seen it then?
that barely matters when dust settles. An Academy member will choose between a generic musical already made several times and that at the same time is already a version of a classic work (Pygmalion), no matter how actually good it could be, and then more original, fresh and poignant work… similar situations happened when Avatar or La La Land arrived to the Oscar night with huge buzz and chances of winning and… voila. AMPAS chose another film that looked more fresh, poignant and/or original. The only thing that it’s going in its favor is how much “due” Cooper may be considered as an actor – that’s beyond me, honestly, I think he’s good, but 3 acting noms? Wow. Also he will be campaigning, and it’ll all depend on his charisma… I’m still undecided if Gaga is liked in the industry so much to give her an acting Oscar over the likes of Glenn Close or Nicole Kidman who are in the running (Kidman won 16 years ago! It’s high time for #2). Overlooked is the real bet of the film for an Oscar, Sam Elliott, who’s liked – as I am aware – and due for some recognition. If there’s any acting win this year for a musical, it’ll be him or Dick van Dyke for Mary Poppins Returns, as a tribute for their careers. Or that’s how I see it.
One of the biggest musicians of our time, one of the most popular actors of our times, starring in one of the most well-known stories of all cinematic time… and you don’t “get” the hype?
This kind of hyperbole is exactly why so many people are rooting for it to fail.
Nothing I said was hyperbolic. It’s not my opinion that Gaga and Cooper are two of the biggest stars in the world. It’s called objectivity, my friend.
Which you aren’t displaying when you say things like this
Is Lin Manuel-Miranda suppose to be that good in Mary Poppins?
It is hard to believe that in any shape or form he will be ‘better’ than Emily Blunt, who is no even consider a contender for best actress.
Also, is Lucas Hedges going lead for both roles this year? Isn’t there a possibility of him going supporting for Ben is Back?
He doesn’t need to be better than Emily Blunt, Best Actress is just packed.
What are the 1,000 new voters going to vote for? I don’t think it’ll be Green Book.
I think they could. Crowd pleaser. Easy watch. Octavia Spencer is an exec producer; and very well-liked. Mahershala Ali, very well liked. Viggo; most people love him from LOTR, before, and after. Why wouldn’t they?
I mean, you could be right. But I don’t see a big deterrence.
Let me rephrase this – 1,000, generally young-leaning voters.
Green Book feels like the kind of film that would’ve won in the 00’s, but I’m not so sure it’s THE winner now.
I think Steve Carell has to be at least a contender for Marwen or Beautiful Boy in Lead (though more likely the former since he is the absolute lead there whereas in BB he and Chalamet could be seen as co-leads, by some. I also wouldn’t count out Beale St. for other acting nods, including Stephan James in supporting actor and Aujanue Ellis in supporting actress. I am also of the opinion that Beale St. will ultimately end up on the shortlist of directing and film nods. It would be interesting if three African Americans ended up on the Director shortlist. If Tyrel gets in before the nomination deadline and receives some critics awards attention, then Jason Mitchell could be an outlier for a nod. Finally, I think both Toni Collette and Emily Blunt both have to be viewed as at least contenders, especially if you’re going to keep touting Elsie Fisher as one. Fisher will likely sweep all of the young performer awards (though the two kids in A Quiet Place, Roma, Abdul Leave No Trace could be in the mix for that award, too.)
Beautiful Boy sure has gone extremely quiet in terms of predictions. I don’t think there is anyone picking it to get many, if any, nominations at Gold Derby now.
I know. And yet 5 pundits had it in the tops five before it was screened. I never thought it was going to do anything beyond an acting nom or two.
I would take Thomasin McKenzie over Elsie Fisher. Her role was more demanding because her character was going through heavy changes.
Small quibble, but I don’t see how Won’t You Be My Neighbor does not get in for documentary.
I agree. Same with Three Identical Strangers.
I’m not convinced Green Book is considered artisticly strong enough to be seen as best picture contender in this age.
By number of GoldDerby predictions for Best Director:
1. Alfonso Cuaron, ROMA
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
5. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
I think Cooper’s film and Farrelly’s film are the only two films that I’ve seen this year that I could actually see winning BP. ROMA is almost certainly my favourite of the contenders (though not of the year), but it seems like it has too many strikes against it. (The Artist and Moonlight would be decent comparable precedents, but neither were foreign language films or distributed by Netflix.)
This is a fascinating article. I am so excited for this Oscar season.
I think that there are better contenders than the ones mentioned:
– The Old Man and The Gun
– Boy Erased
– The Sisters Brothers
– The Hate U Give (did already premeried in USA? If not… just wait and see).
This is going to be a very interesting race. So many good films to be released!
Michael Jordan should not be underestimated for supporting for Black Panther even if it misses in Best Pic.
That happening would be very revealing of the influence of the new 1,000 or so members.
I think BP is going to score just minor nods… I mean, if you want to honor african-americans, aren’t Green Book, If Beale Street could talk and BlackKklansman way more obvious picks?
Very true but once the Popular category died there will be massive push to get BP in for BP. haha
I would say that Black Panther is the favorite for Best Costume. The Favourite could sweep right in and take it; those dresses look amazing. But yeah, Black Panther looks very strong for a nom there, and possible win.
Otherwise, very thorough predictions. Something that this article picked up on and is true … figuring out the BP noms is getting easier to call from this far out … but the other categories are still quite difficult to call. But I like that. It’s still fun, at this point 🙂
A friend saw The Favourite and specifically mentioned costumes. Even said that the men’s costumes were equal if not more elaborate than many of the women’s. And it’s Sandy Powell. I agree that BP costumes are beautiful, but TF seems hard to beat, especially if this is the one category that they can give to a favorite. haha intended.
Sasha, Mary Queen of Scots will be screening soon because Focus Features are taking it to Deadline Contenders in London next month with Josie Rourke (who’s doing her last play at the Donmar until end of November), Beau Willimon & Dr. John Guy (historian, film is based on his bio of Mary Stuart) I guess Ronan & Robbie won’t be attending due to filming commitments but may attend the one in LA in December.
It’d be interesting if Dafoe and Chalemet got their “make up” Oscars after so many were pulling for them to win last year… But in opposite categories… It’s unlikely but It’s one of the first things I thought of since these predictions have popped up.
Chalamet shouldn’t scrape an Oscar until he apologizes to the cast and crew of Rainy Day in New York for helping get the film spiked AFTER cashing the check.
Grow up.
No, TIMOTHEEEEEE is the one who needs to grow up. Frankly, I’m glad he lost the Oscar after such a cowardly stunt he pulled during the Oscar campaign.
OK Pete. It’s on him, then, is it? What does that have to do with the quality of his performance? He was pressured, during an hysterical witchunt in the middle of Oscar season where he was a major player, to…donate his salary. His publicist and manager architected, I’m sure. Let’s get some context.
He went along with it.
If Dafoe couldn’t win after sweeping the critics awards last year, his Oscar days may be behind him. Whereas Chalamet is on a hot streak. If he wins, he will be the 2nd youngest BSA.
Dafoe should’ve won. 🙁
No michelle yeoh (crazy rich asians) for best supporting actress??
I agree. Pundits need to start pushing Yeoh in order for the Critics to notice her and then the Academy. She was good enough for a nomination.
Also, the film (Crazy rich Asians) should be in consideration for Best Costumes.
Yes, it will be in for Costume.
If Black Panther doesn’t get a nod for costumes that would be a travesty. And there won’t be five better scores than BP’s released all year. That score will be as iconic in the future as those for blockbusters that John Williams worked on.
Just saw Blackklansmen and I don’t get all the love. It is a subtle and coherent as its title. I do think Spike Lee is overdue but it would be a shame if this is the movie he gets that nomination for.
If I Nominated for Best Original Score:
(out of 158 new releases seen as of this comment)
…..
— Alexandre Desplat (Isle of Dogs)
— Ludwig Göransson (Black Panther)
— Jonny Greenwood (You Were Never Really Here)
— Cliff Martinez (Game Night)
— Garth Stevenson (Chappaquiddick)
Its quite a complete list, but where is Dafoe?? I believe many will rally ard his Van Gogh, the raves & his win in Venice + his snub this yr
I feel like Cooper is getting underestimated here. Is Viggo even going to campaign? Does he care? Cooper will campaign his ass off. They will want to reward him for all his effort he put into ASIB. He directed, produced and co-wrote the screenplay and several of the songs. He spent weeks learning how to lower his voice and he learned to sing and play guitar. On top of all that Green Book isn’t critically acclaimed. It has a 69 on Metacritic whereas ASIB has an 87. Anyways, maybe I am stanning for Cooper a little bit lol. But even objectively looking at it I don’t see how he isn’t locked in for the win at this point?
If Cooper were to get nominated in every possible category and not win SOMETHING I’d feel bad for him… And he’d immediately attain “overdue” status.
Apparently Bale is crazy good in Vice but they’re just rumors for now. Mortensen got nominated for Captain Fantastic without campaigning in 2016 so there’s a chance he’ll step up for Green Book since it has the ”buzz.”
I’m not completely ruling out Bale but he’s up against it. For starters he’s playing Dick fucking Cheney for one thing. On top of that he’s already won an Oscar. Plus, like Viggo, will he campaign? Will Vice even be good? Alot we have to wait for. Like I pointed out above there is so much working in Coopers favor this year.
But this is exactly why he may not be the front-runner for Best Actor — because the Academy will have opportunities in many other categories to give him some hardware. They can give someone else Best Actor but also reward Cooper’s accomplishments elsewhere.
And they love to give former actors who direct the Best Director prize — Robert Redford, Richard Attenborough, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner, Mel Gibson, Clint Eastwood x2, Ron Howard. And in fact when that person is nominated for both Actor and Director for the same movie, the award always goes to the directing, not the acting.
Woody Allen also won Best Director for the first movie he was nominated for (Annie Hall). BUT, this trend has seemed to wear off now that there are more actors crossing over to directing. Kennth Branagh, Tim Robbins, George Clooney, didn’t win when they were nominated. Nor did Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele last year. And of course Ben Affleck wasn’t even nominated for Argo!
But the Academy found a way to give an Oscar to some of those people — Affleck won as a producer of Argo and Peele for the screenplay of Get Out. My point is, Cooper has multiple opportunities to win an Oscar for A Star is Born, so voters may go to someone else for Actor.
Yeah but from reviews for the film, he def won’t win for Screenplay, doubtful for director. So unless it wins Pic (which would mean a split year), his best chance is in Actor. And since he’s been nominated 3 times for actor already and since the actors will all be voting in that category, I can see them award him in that category for the film as a whole. Then Gaga will be awarded for Best Song.
Interesting theory, and definitely food for thought!
Peter Farraly for BD seems kind of odd given that what seem like the closest recent equivalents (Tate Taylor for The Help and Theodore Melfi for Hidden Figures) were very decidedly not contenders in Best Director. Someone like Barry Jenkins or Steve McQueen would make a lot more sense in that category.
Sasha, do you think there could possibly be some sort of voter fatigue around “the three amigos” cornering the market on Best Director? A win for Cuaron would mark 5 wins between himself, Inarritu and Del Toro in only 6 years. All deserved. That’s pretty amazing. Thinking out loud.
I think there could be if it were not Cuarón to be the last one. He is the most acclaimed of the three, won the longest time ago, the only one of them who didn’t get Best Picture. Also, their styles are quite distinct, so (from the movies alone) it’s not like all the wins were for “similar” movies.
Gravity could’ve very easily won Best Picture if the cultural pressures weren’t there.
I would include Cold War for cinematography. It is stunning and his last film made the category though it was the foreign film front runner. This year his latest isn’t but its competition is funny enough a cinematography contender too. Could there be two foreign language cinematography nominees ? It must have happened before.
I agree about Cold War’s cinematography which is incredible. Saw it this week and it’s my top film of the year by a mile. Such a beautiful, atmospheric, enigmatic, brilliantly acted masterpiece.
^^ Agreed. Burning and Cold War have been the best of 2018 so far (though not necessarily by a mile, as I highly enjoyed The Wild Pear Tree and Shoplifters).
Only 20 foreign films have been nominated for cinematography. Never 2 in one year. It would be great if it happened this year.
Colette is 92% Fresh (76 Metacritic) and a lot of reviews say it’s Keira Knightley’s best performance of her career
I enjoyed his performance but I really don’t think John David Washington is a part of the conversation. He’s just not Great enough with a capital G. You can sense his inexperience a little bit
Totally — he just did not stand out in that film in a way that is going to get votes. There are too many other contenders.
Really good stuff. I’m going to take a look at my posts the day after the Oscars for the past 3 years…when hindsight was 20/20 and try to learn from some of my recent mistakes. I always get Oscars amnesia come October.
No Won’t You Be My Neighbor in documentary?
It has to be!
You forgot Meryl Streep HAHAHA 🙂