A lot has to happen between now and when final Oscar ballots go out. There is not enough caution out there and way too much confidence in some predictions. Maybe A Star is Born is the frontrunner to win Best Picture, maybe it’s not — but I feel pretty sure that it’s too soon to know anything for sure. I think it’s my duty to remind everyone how the Best Picture race works – and then we’ll get into the Oscar Squad’s first official predictions for 2018 (with the caveat that not everything has even been seen. Vice hasn’t been seen, many of these folks making predictions haven’t seen everything – all of these things will have to be taken under consideration).
So here are a few things to take into consideration.
1) You don’t really know until the big guilds ring in. Can Bradley Cooper win the DGA? He’ll win the first-time director trophy for sure, but will he also win the DGA? Over Alfonso Cuaron and Damien Chazelle? Or are people thinking it will split, with one of them winning director (most will say Cuaron, I figure) and A Star is Born will win Best Picture?
You all know what I think and what I’ve said about that. In the case of splits, they are almost always impossible to predict. Some have predicted them accurately (a few of us called the Moonlight/La La Land split, and a few of us called the 12 Years a Slave/Gravity split, but how many called the Spotlight/Revenant split?). The thing to know is this: in the era of the preferential ballot, predicting Best Picture ain’t easy. Even last year’s Shape of Water non-split seemed like a pretty hard call — although it did win the PGA, DGA, it wasn’t even nominated for SAG.
So people will say, just go with your gut instinct and your gut is telling you A Star is Born will win Best Picture. There really isn’t anyone who can argue with that.
2) The film hasn’t even opened yet. With the possible exception of The Artist, predicting whether a movie will win before it opens is a major gamble. The first reason is that the prediction will bring people to the box office, perhaps, based on this buzz — but like poor La La Land, it will be put in a position of having to meet impossible expectations. So you saw a lot of people on Twitter saying “it’s the real deal” and the “buzz is all real,” and surely, that is possible too. But remember, the Oscar race isn’t static — it’s fluid. There is a conversation that will happen around the movie and that conversation will shape its perception heading into the race. The conversation hasn’t started yet.
3) The pundits are banking the actors driving this through, because Bradley Cooper is an actor and they love it when actors make good, like Ben Affleck. Maybe if Cooper is snubbed for a Best Director Oscar he might generate that kind of feel-good momentum — you can’t count that out — but no one really saw the surge of Argo coming until it started really winning stuff. Can actors make this film win? Absolutely. If they are as on board as the critics are, they can. But if it’s a done deal, as they’re saying it is, I would expect it to win SAG ensemble, Gaga to win Best Actress, and Cooper to win Director. Can they? Maybe. Will they? I don’t know. No one who knows what they’re doing covering the Oscar race will tell you they know for sure.
4) The preferential ballot is an odd animal. It just is. It’s hard to know how these movies will rank. Is the film a number one or nothing, like La La Land? Is it a number one and a number two and a number three like Shape of Water? These things must be considered and thus, all of us should be heading into every Oscar race with some doubt rather than rigid confidence.
5) TL;DR, my dudes, have I taught you nothing?
It’s worth noting that over at Gold Derby Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma is in the top spot among many pundits. And honestly, that is something that COULD happen, but then you have to factor in the actors. Are the actors going to go for a movie without any big stars? Well, they went for Slumdog Millionaire. Is Alfonso Cuaron’s epic undeniable in its ambition, deliver,y and scope so that it becomes too big to ignore? Definitely possible. It’s never a bad thing to predict Best Picture by thinking about Best Director. However, the actors are the question here. Will they even watch it? Black and white and in Spanish? With subtitles? Is it so powerful that it can overcome this?
Will voters, when gathered around their family Christmas, say to those sitting around the crackling fire — hey let’s watch this black and white movie in Spanish? Maybe.
And then there’s the Netflix factor — a factor that no one wants to go near. Critics are being forced to embrace Netflix because they can’t deny Cuaron. How will the Academy snobs like Steven Spielberg take to it? A question to consider. Roma has to break two rules to win: no Netflix film has ever even been nominated for Best Picture, and no film not in the English language (except maybe The Last Emperor?) has won Best Picture.
Also worth nothing, First Man, to me, has the kind of massive epic scope a Best Picture needs (like Roma does) and is about a great American hero – but is it TOO artsy? Is it too cerebral? Can people connect with it emotionally (I did). Will people want to put it on their screeners over the holidays? Will it make money? Will get hit with a backlash?
Green Book also has the stuff that Best Pictures are made on, but since it hasn’t opened yet, like all of the above films, it’s hard to know how it will play once Twitter has a go at it. Will it get hit with a massive shitstorm or will it somehow scrape by, shitstorm-free? Green Book, like A Star is Born, is an actor’s movie. And both Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali could be frontrunners.
And then there’s Vice. It’s a late breaker and traditionally late breakers have a tough time gaining the momentum needed to win. But in the era of heated politics, in the dark days of Trump, we must consider how we’re all going to be watching movies right now.
I have to say at this moment that I could not and would not declare any movie to win Best Picture for sure. I have done this way too long to stick my neck out like that. Also, I’ve learned that once you say those words you almost always doom the film by putting a big fat target on its back. Thus, just the declaration that a movie is headed to a win knocks it down a notch or two. That’s just the way it is. And now, the first Oscar Squad of the season (thank you Clarence!)
I like very much this year’s race.
I would love to see Black Panther in key categories, but it’s starting to appear difficult, given reactions to more recent openings.
I currently bet on ‘A star is born’ for picture, director and actress, while I see Mortensen well-positioned in the actor race.
Here’s my feelings so far: https://oscarpredictions.weebly.com/
This all just feels like The Social Network and La La Labd all over again. Pundits from a certain background jump up and down over a film that only speaks to them. I can’t wait till the pundit pull diversifies enough that we get a balanced take on what is truly loved versus what is loved by a niche group.
I would add these people to the sidebar:
Willem Dafoe: At Eternity’s Gate ( Best Actor)
Rami Malek: Bohemian Rhapsody ( Best Actor)
Yalitza Aparicio: Roma ( Best Actress)
Regina King: If Beale Street Could Talk ( Best Supporting Actress)
Rachel Morrison: Black Panther ( Best Cinematography)
My early predictions are focusing on Roma. I am waiting to see how the campaigning plays out in the next couple of months. The Golden Globes are going to be crucial as far as setting the tone for awards season considering the nature of the nominees. Right now, I am not expecting ASIB to win big at the Oscars outside of the sound, song categories but I may change my mind if it wins big at the GG’s.
I do not think Gaga will win best actress. I can see Gaga winning for best original song and I don’t think she will win two Oscars in one night. Voting for her for best song I believe will both make more sense with academy voters and make them feel like they have giving her back the recognition she deserves already. Leaving the path free for them to vote for Glenn Close (or anyone else).
The movie was pretty good, though I have to admit the screenplay is the weak link. The sound and the songs were amazing. As for Lady Gaga, she was good, above average for sure, but I’m not convinced it is a top-5 performance. To be honest I am a little afraid to say something against Lady Gaga because of her fans 😉
Ha, nah go for it. If you didn’t love her in the movie don’t be afraid to say so. If some idiotic Gaga fanatic can’t handle it, that’s on them.
You guys not doing podcasts anymore?
recording a new episode tomorrow afternoon!
thank god, I’ve missed u all!
Ditto !!!
quick thoughts…. only based on trailers, reviews and festival twitters reactions:
1) ASIB will have many noms for sure but the only win is has in the bag is original song.
2) Gaga is not winning over Close, Portman, Stone or Colman.
3) Copper is not winning over Eastwood, Mortensen or Bale.
4) Adapted screenplay could go to If Beale Street could talk.
5) Cooper is not winning over Cuaron, Chazelle, Lanthimos or Jenkins.
6) First man will win some techs and nothing more.
7) Vox Lux will surprise. Recently added to London, Austin,New Orleans and Chicago film festivals. Portman could win either lead or supporting. It could get noms for screenplay, editing, cimetography, and even Corbet.
8) BP is Roma vs The Favourite vs If Beale Street Could Talk right now.
9) Vice , Vox Lux or The Mule could be strong contenders when finally shown.
Cooper WILL win. Best Actor is ASIB’s other sure thing. Guaranteed. Done deal.
It will be interesting to see if he wins the Golden Globe or not. I know he is popular in the industry. I hope Willem Dafoe’s team bothers to campaign hard…if he gets nominated, he could be a strong player in this race. I think Rami Malek could win but I am waiting on the reviews. Ryan Gosling is also going to be a big contender.
joeclinton600 I agree with you! While I’m not confident in my predictions of the winners just yet, it’s looking like it’s Bradley Cooper’s to lose. I saw the movie Friday night and loved it! He did a lot of heavy lifting for the movie, and I feel with the multiple nominations he’ll get, Best Actor is where they feel it’ll best to reward him. Plus it’s an amazing performance! Also, GoldDerby seems to be sensing momentum behind Bradley Cooper in Best Actor. From Friday to today it went from 6 experts predicting him to win to 12 of the 25 experts are now predicting him to win. The rest of the experts predicting winners are scattered.
I saw A Star Is Born yesterday and I was frankly disappointed, considering all the hype in the media and on this site.
First, Lady Gaga: As someone who has never seen Lady Gaga and sadly cannot name one of her songs, I am probably looking at this with fresh eyes. The woman in the film who plays Ally is adequate in the role, and I wouldn’t mind seeing her in another film, but again, her acting is only slightly above average (however, her voice is really incredible, and singing counts for something–right Anne Hathaway?) Also, the role is underwritten; even Barbra Streisand, who was great in other roles, was not nominated for ASIB. Gaga might be nominated, depending on the year end competition, but she’s not winning Actress. She will win Best Song.
Second Bradley Cooper. He does a great whiskey ravaged voice, but Jeff Bridges, playing the same kind of role in Crazy Heart was ten times better. Again, the role is way underwritten, and it would have been a lot more interesting to get into Maine’s deterioration, With the recent events surrounding Anthony Bourdain, Kate Spade, and earlier Chris Cornell (who Maine parallels, ASIB really should have gotten deeper.
Finally, the movie: Probable BP nominee, based on how much a large part of the population likes it. I agree with the other poster that it hits all the major demographics. But to me the movie just seems kind of by the numbers. The first 25 minutes is a lot of fun, but then it becomes another formula movie. Even contrived rise and fall musical biopics like Walk The Line and Ray weren’t as predictable or cliched. I haven’t seen Green Book, The Mule, The Favourite, The Frontrunner, Veep, or some of the other possibles. If this is like most years it’s likely that another movie between now and December is going to knock ASIB out of its front runner post.
I saw a star is born yesterday, I loved it. You took the Rider off all your Oscar lists . I still think it is the best film of the year.
I agree about The Rider. It is far and away the best movie I’ve seen so far this year. What an achievement for Chloe Zhao. I actually saw The Rider without seeing the trailer or even knowing what it was about. I just wanted to watch a movie that day, and it was the only one I hadn’t seen at my local indie theater. And what a pleasant surprise it was. It felt so real. The performances were so naturalistic that there were times when I actually felt I was watching a documentary. The scene where Brady tried to break a horse should have been mundane and tedious, and yet, it was as exciting as the most elaborate set pieces from this year’s blockbusters. Chloe Zhao is someone special. I can’t wait to see what the future holds for her.
Oh my god, the hype on this film! I am not even following the race that closely this year yet it seems to be too hyped. What’s going? I mean, it has Lady Gaga in it, which puts it everywhere but the hype is just too much. It might get killed when people finally watch it and it fails to live up to the hype. What’s going on? Am I the only one who thinks this film has way too much hype? La La Land was nowhere near this level of hype despite having a much better critical and audience acclaim. It’s still early days, we need to calm down a bit.
You used word 7 times. You over hyped hype. I think it will get a box office opening of 40 million and the soundtrack is number one on ITunes. It is my second favorite movie after Leave No Trace which had pitiful marketing.
Hype is a ridiculous, borderline stupid expression. It’s called publicity and marketing and Warner Bros. has done what is necessary to open their film as a hit. Get over it.
Get over what?
This is so depressing.
Why?
I do not like how rude and condescending your comments are, so I refuse to engage with you.
Good. Why don’t you say something of value, then?
The Academy loves to honor movie actors for directing (twice at Martin Scorsese’s expense). Not saying Cooper will win, but certainly get a nomination.
In recent years the director’s branch seems to be a little less fond of actors turned director, we all remember Argo. They do seem to be open minded about situations where actors are solely acting as directors like Mel Gibson, Greta Gerwig, and Jordan Peele but they haven’t nominated a director for a movie they were actively starring in since Clint Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby and before that it hadn’t been done since Life is Beautiful.
I think Cooper is certain of a nomination.
It will be tough to equal the passion and vibrancy that A Star Is Born generates. At this moment, it is a pretty solid frontrunner.
That’s couldn’t win TIFF? That was the fest everyone assumed it would walk away with and it ended up empty handed, right?
Foreign film is very competitive this year. Capernaum is SOOO good. Lebanon has done it again. Shoplifters and Woman at War are outstanding as well.
Capernaum is my early prediction to win.
Lady gaga is not winning best actress. Wake up people. She’s a newcomer in the acting industry, no previous nominations, her role is basic in comparison to other winners in the category, I’m sure that in terms of acting she’s not even close to the frontrunners.
Let’s face it. The year is weak, I know. But that doesn’t mean that she can win that easily.
You have no idea what you are talking about. I’m sure you’ve not even seen the film.
I kind of share your doubts. I don’t think the industry will love as some people(remember how everyone though she would win Best Song Oscar but lost). She probably needs critics to push her. Can Cooper make the difference for her? I’m not so sure about that.
She gave a great performance. She is a frontrunner with Glenn Close who was in a dull poorly made movie.
She’s a newcomer in the acting industry, no previous nominations, her role is basic in comparison to other winners in the category, I’m sure that in terms of acting she’s not even close to the frontrunners.
The first two of those things are not remotely hindrances to winning Best Actress, which regularly goes to newcomers.
The latter two are wholly subjective and, from what we’ve seen, not widely shared opinions.
Really? Who was the last newcomer to win best actress? I can’t find one. Maybe Marlee martlin a long time ago and in a very different role compared to gaga.
Gaga is an outsider for the acting industry. She don’t have the role to win nor the narrative.
Look at the roles in films of the past winners
2017 woman fighting to know who kill her daughter.
2016 struggling actress dealing with rejections. This is a similar case to a star is born but again, emma stone is not lady gaga for the academy.
2015 abducted and abused woman locked in a room with her son.
2014 women with Alzheimer disease.
2013 women in bankruptcy dealing with alcoholism and mental problems
And the list goes on.
Gaga does not fit in that group.
I feel ASIB is this years Lady Bird in terms of hysterical critical & pundit praise which ended in the latter film hurting its chances of winning at least one Oscar. Gaga will likely win for song, but I think it’s only a matter of time before voters see it for what it is a (fourth) straight, run of the mill remake. LA LA LAND at least had some originality & Chazelle trills the industry. I also think it’s too soon for a another musical drama to win ”big” a la La La Land
Omg these people are underestimating Natalie Portman like never before. I’m not sure if we’ve seen such a snub from critics at the moment of predictions.
Literally this is unlike any case I’ve seen in the past. Rave reviews + critically acclaimed film+ oscar winning actress= nothing?
The only thing that could explain that is that they have to see the film first cause I’m guessing that they weren’t in venice and Toronto, otherwise they are crazy.
She will be a strong contender in supporting. I highly doubt they will risk losing out on even the nomination in lead when they could come near frontrunner status in supporting. And to be fair, she has zero screentime in the first hour so it wouldn’t even be category fraud, not technically at least.
Lead or supporting those critics are not considering her for the nomination and I want to know the reason
Standard late bloomer syndrome. She has just exploded into the season a few weeks ago with the glowing Venice / TIFF reviews, it has only just been confirmed recently that the film will be out this year and she will get a big campaign, pundits are just a bit late on this but they will come around. Neon announced a release date and campaign for Margot Robbie around the same time last year and while I would have to check, I’m fairly certain few if any predicted her in the top5 pre-precursors, last October.
That could be a reason. Vox lux was almost non existent before venice but was green book a thing by that time? After toronto Ali and mortensen became immediate frontrunners.
I don’t know if she will be nominated or not at the end but why is this happening?
Green Book is a broad crowdpleaser that was instantly catapulted into the BP conversation after it won the main award at TIFF and also has excellent Box Office prospects. Coming from a big studio (Universal), around the clock PR team doing their best to promote it, is a given, too.
Vox Lux is obscure, avant-garde, with very limited commercial potential and zero BP prospects, and being an indie it doesn’t have the luxury of a big studio campaign but critics groups could still help it emerge big time. We’ll see.
Nonetheless, I have no doubt Neon will pull out all the stops to secure at least the Portman nomination for the film in the next few months.
P.S. I called Portman / Vox Lux long before Venice 🙂 Bragging OVAH.
Just got out of the theater. I’d be glad for Bradley Cooper for anything A STAR IS BORN does get. It’s a great film like they used to make. Good for him!
Sasha not having Favourite in original screenplay lol. It’s likely winner there
She won’t rank The Favourite because she likes animals or something.
First Man artsy and cerebral?! To me, it’s as mainstream and commercial as it might be. Nothing artsy there. And while pundits are pushing it, I doubt it will be a major contender. Definitely top 3 in picture and directing. A Star Is Born, while being crass, loud, messy and raw, has the energy and wins people over. It’ll be top 3. Is it a great film? Heck no. But it touched a nerve.
Crass? Hardly.
Extremely crass.
I’ve already read tweets from people who saw it saying they hated ASIB or that it was okay for the first half etc. It clearly has some issues! Critics & pundits have hyped it up so much it’s bound to hurt it eventually (not BO) I’m sure it will get the noms & get a win for Gaga for Best Song but at the end of the day it’s a straight, run of the mill (fourth) remake. Sasha pointed out a few issues too.
Damien Chazelle directed it. He is a genius. He hired the best people.
Breaking: Olivia de Havilland taking ‘Feud’ feud to the Supreme Court!
https://deadline.com/2018/10/olivia-de-havilland-feud-supreme-court-ryan-murphy-bette-and-joan-1202477596/
For a brief while, I thought I had read she was going to be on the Supreme Court. Now, THAT would be a bold, reconciliatory move!
Breaking 02: Next season of American Horror Story will be called AHS de Havilland
I think a lot of people are underestimating Blackkklansman. Right now I think it will win both BP and BD. I have seen Roma, I have seen A Star is Born, I have seen The Favourite, I have not seen First Man.
BlacKkKlansman is winning nothing.
Not sure you are accurate… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c31154911dd9d5fa4ceeb35b8307128d61697ba4bfb7e0e0b81f9d791e7232b.png
Believe me, I am.
Lee is not even getting nominated for BD, let alone winning. BlacKkKlansman will land in BP and Screenplay and that’s it, and it will win neither.
(These are my predictions, not a prophecy. I felt the need to qualify that since apparently Sasha doesn’t think people are being cautious enough this season. Though I’m not sure what a “cautious” prediction looks like. I think we all know that predictions by their very nature are guesses, right? No one’s claiming to know the future here.)
Yes, predictions. My take is that many predictions are underestimating Lee’s film. We’ll see how it unfolds.
While clearly I, not unlike anyone else, know nothing this early on, I’m willing to bet that while A Star is Born will do well, it won’t be BP-winner “well”. Nominations in picture, actor, actress, supporting actor, song, sound WILL most likely happen. Crucial BP-requirement nods in directing and writing won’t happen if I had to guess. We’ll see.
I’m curious… Have you seen it?
Of course I have. I wouldn’t be judging certain aspects of it while praising others if I hadn’t.
If it was a straight forward remake, then Screenplay would be tough. But considering that it’s being received as such a fresh and modern take on the ASIB story, I can see the case for voters giving it Screenplay. IMO the screenplay has some pacing issues toward the end, and a little too much cliched forshadowing. But the early bar scenes and parking lot scene are so great I’d love to see it honored.
I, too, can see it missing out on Director, only because Cooper is a lock for an Actor nomination, and the Directing branch has a recent habit of honoring more diverse and artistic movies, and might think that he’ll be rewarded already by the acting branch.
Agree about ASIB. It was so strong right up to the point the evil producer came into the picture. That guy was so cookie cutter, he almost upended the entire thing. At that point the film seemed to hit a lull, while also seemingly went too fast in showing Ally’s rise to fame. Song to album to SNL to Grammy went way too quickly. Meanwhile, I felt we didn’t see enough of Maine’s struggles as an artist himself.
I had similar trepidations when the producer first appeared. Honestly though most of his decisions seemed reasonable considering Jackson’s outlandish behavior.
SPOILERS
Yeah the producer was a lame, 2D villain, but to me the whole third act was problematic. So basically her meteoric rise happens in the span of a relatively short time (under a year ?) and in the same time, he goes from dude selling out arenas and sending private jets for his crush, to backup guitarist at an awards show ? And let the record show that this was all before the Grammy-incident that indeed could have been a career-ender. In the rehab scene he breaks down but no tears in sight ? And the editing / cinematography of the last scene was just clumsy in my book, clearly like anything else film related, it is up for interpretation, but for me it didn’t work, it didn’t have the catharsis I expected. The cut to the flashback of him singing the same song was abrupt, the series of flashbacks accompanied by the song was kinda cheesy, and the song itself just simply wasn’t strong enough for an epilogue.
I get how I may come off like I hate this movie, just listing what I didn’t like about its third act and all, but to be clear : I don’t hate this movie. I think it was good. I simply think it was 1. overhyped 2. nothing original about it 3. Gaga’s (by the way GOOD) acting, for a lot of people, came off much better than it was, because her singing bits were electric. I do think she was very good. I do not think she was great. Nonetheless, good turn in good movie. Nominations, sure. But, in my opinion, wins would be undeserving.
I agree very much. As for cinematography, first shoot on film and then we can discuss it. Digital photography is like artificial sweetener – it doesn’t cut it.
Agreed. Cinematography and editing were major hit and miss for me in this film. There were a few clever choices, well-executed ideas present, but there were also questionable / clumsy ones just as many.
and in the same time, he goes from dude selling out arenas and sending private jets for his crush, to backup guitarist at an awards show ?
I don’t think that was meant to reflect declining popularity, it was concern about his reliability, as his condition was clearly deteriorating.
If Peele and Gerwig were able to get nominations last year, I think Cooper can manage. Therefore I think the bigger question is of a film gets noms for Pic, Director, Actor, Actress and Editing, is that enough to carry the screenplay to a nomination to complete the full count?
Let’s not forget that Cooper is up for nominations in 5 categories. He is close to lock status for picture and actor, he is definitely a contender in directing and adapted screenplay, and if the studio submits more than one song, he could be up for a nod in that category, as well, he does have writing credit on several tracks. So the conclusion to be drawn here :
1. If he gets all 5 nods, he will make history.
2. More likely he will cancel himself out of a few of these categories, voters may just opt for the “I already voter for him in another category” argument.
I’m sticking to my original hunch : he will get two nods, picture and actor, and could very well win latter.
Full disclosure: not a fan of Eastwood’s post Letters from Iwo Jima output
That being said, the trailer for The Mule tells me that Cooper might be focusing on the wrong Best Actor rival
Here’s some of my observations:
1.) Between Cooper, Gaga, Elliott and Dice Clay, A Star Is Born has the SAG Ensemble in the bag. Roma feature unknown actors. First Man is mostly about one man. Green Book, like La La Land, seems to be a two person show. The Favourite or Vice could show up here, but I’m still not convinced the Academy will go for them.
2.). Speaking of Vice. I see it as The Post of this year. It’s the late release date movie that nobody will see for awhile but continually list as a contender. It’s about a political subject that in this day of instant news coverage, I don’t see anyone caring about. In fact, from the comments under the trailer on YouTube, half the people are saying they won’t see it cause it’s critical of conservatives and the other half are saying they won’t see it because it glamorizes evil men. So who is gonna see it? And I’m not even joking. It might manage a nom in Best Pic and Best Actor (as opposed to Streep’s Best Actress nom) but that might be it.
3.) Widows, despite the good reviews, will not get a Best Pic nom in the way Gone Girl did not get one. Now Viola Davis might like Rosamund Pike did.
4.) Black Panther, despite the good reviews, will not get a Best Pic nom in the way Wonder Woman did not get one. Face it. Best Popular film was all it had going for it.
5.) If Beale Street Could Talk is in, but still not sure on BlackkKlansman. It just came out too early and doesn’t seem to have any champions.
6.) Willem Dafoe and Glenn Close will both be nominated and that will be the only nominations their respective films will get.
That’s all for now.
Yes, ASIB will be winning Best Ensemble all over the place.
I think you’re absolutely correct about Vice. I see as this year’s The Post too, and I think that will kill Christian Bale’s chances of winning.
Well it’s clear Sasha doesn’t really care for A Star Is Born since it is sitting 4th on her list with Cooper in 4th for Director, 3rd for Actor and Elliott not even in the top 5. Gonna be a long season of how First Man should be getting all the attention Star Is Born is gonna be getting. Sigh.
Myself, I really admired First Man and was stirred by its moon landing. It is not going to go over well with the average viewer because it is a cool, detached movie with a protagonist who keeps everything buried inside and the cinematography is dark and grainy. Don’t get me wrong, I thought Chazelle took a truly novel, artistic approach and it has thrilling sequences and good performances, but I don’t think it’s a movie that masses are going to embrace.
I haven’t seen it yet but it looks very much like a Chris Nolan movie. His films always get accused of being unemotional but to me they are anything but.
And Chazelle is a self-proclaimed ‘Dunkirk” superfan.
I think it’s okay to admire “Dunkirk”. It’s one of few Nolan films which doesn’t draw attention to itself. It’s my third film of his after “Memento” and “The Prestige”.
To be fair, I did call the Spotlight/Revenant split in 2015. Best prediction I’d ever made.
I remember sticking with Spotlight for Picture, but kept thinking that Rev. was gonna win Director so would take pic with it. Those “undecided” splits are tough. When Tom Hardy got the surprise nomination, seemed like a lot of people switched to Rev thinking that pointed to all this love, but I kept think “hmmm well Rachel McAdams got the nom for Spotlight, which has been out for awhile, so the actors reeeaallllyyy love that movie”.
I’m going to hold off predictions until Mary Queen of Scots, On the Basis of Sex & Vice have screened respectively (and The Mule.)
Here’s the deal. I loved A Star is Born. Absolutely loved it. I’m not sure anyone can beat Gaga and honestly Cooper should be the favorite and I’ll be pissed if Elliott isn’t nominated in the end. It’s gonna rack up 10+ nominations and it deserves it. But winning? I am not sure. I am not sold on that yet.
I think it’s an easy winner. It’s literally the epitome of a four-quadrant hit. You couldn’t scientifically engineer anything to appeal to multiple demographics better than this. It appeals to men with the Bradley Cooper of it all: it appeals to women with the melodrama and romance; it appeals to conservatives with the whole residual American Sniper love; it appeals to progressives with the whole Gaga and Shangela factor; it appeals to Middle America with all the country music; it appeals to coastal elites with its status as a critically acclaimed festival darling.
Yes, that’s somewhat reductive — but it’s not untrue. The audience I saw it with was one of the most remarkably diverse groups I’ve ever seen in a theater. We had bro-y dudes in Eagles jerseys rubbing shoulders with flamboyant twinks in Little Monster shirts. And perhaps the most remarkable thing is, everyone from both worlds enjoyed it! There was applause multiple times throughout the movie and again at the end.
ASIB is a crowd pleaser, which has to bode well on the preferential ballot. What’s gonna beat it, a black-and-white Spanish language film? A weird period costume drama? A space movie? Maybe in a different season it wouldn’t win; but given what the competition is this year and given its broad appeal, I just don’t see anything else winning at this point.
Long road ahead though!
Wait, I must’ve missed this, what does Shangela have to do with ASIB, does she act in it in some way? (I’m assuming you are meaning the drag quieten Shangela in case that name also means something else) if so I can’t believe I hadn’t heard about it!
Yes, Shangela is in the movie.
That’s totally got me even more excited for it now!
Star has the added benefit of ”Authenticity” ..it sometimes plays like a MTV music Doc …Cooper is going to win either BA or BD and Gaga BA
Actually BC is on the conservative boycott list after he attended the DNC convention and donated to Hillary’s campaign.
I think Cooper is a surer bet than Gaga. Many times nominated, and this role has Oscar written all over it.
I think you could be right about that. He so clearly love by the Academy and this one could it. I think he wins an Oscar for his great accomplishment. But which is the question? I think actor looks most likely and I’ll put him as favourite for that. The competition isn’t that strong, anyway. I think Gaga is less likely.
I would love it if any of these four actors win it Best Actor: Gosling, Cooper, Redford, and Mortensen. And I think one of them will win.
I have a man crush on Gosling. If I could be like any actor, I would like to be him. He is so damn charming. It was the same with George Clooney. They both have that old Hollywood sophistication.
Gaga’s best historical reference point would be Cher in ‘Moonstruck’; winning on the likability of her character as much as anything. She beat the likes of Holly Hunter in ‘Broadcast News’.
Also, Cooper’s character gets more narrative emphasis than Gaga’s (though admittedly that didn’t hurt Jennifer Lawrence in her Best Actress bid for a film where she was Cooper’s love interest).
I think he is due. It’s the right role. And he is not competing against Daniel Day Lewis as Lincoln (or some such unbeatable phenom).
At the moment Sasha has Gaga, McCarthy, Ronan, Davis & Close as her top 5 BA predictions on GD. Personally I think McCarthy & Davis miss out leaving two slots for possibly Felicity Jones & Olivia Colman (if lead).