I resisted the urge to call A Star Is Born the frontrunner. I guess I did this because I’ve been trained not to, after years of watching how the game goes. Frontrunners, in the new expanded ballot era, always die because another movie flies under the radar and wins in the final analysis. Knowing this, one hedges their bets so as to be yet another fool who got it wrong. I try really hard to be yet another fool, and yet somehow… I fail in this regard. I’m not one of those who is ready to say A Star is Born will win Best Picture. There are just too many weird variables to factor in, but you have to assume it’s the frontrunner right now. You’d be a lordly fool not to.
At the same time, it’s hard for me to dig down deep to write about A Star Is Born. It is what it is. A love story, a film experience, something to be moved by. If it has any weakness it’s that it doesn’t have deeper themes than that, unless you want to talk about addiction and suicide. But even those aren’t really themes, or deeper meaning or broader context in our culture. It isn’t about women surging where men fail. It’s A Star Is Born, a beloved Hollywood fable whose fate is determined at the outset. All the same, most people seem to agree that finally someone got it exactly right.
But really, the success of the film rides almost entirely on the desire to see Bradley Cooper come out of this thing a winner, and to a degree, Lady Gaga.
Its two main challengers appear to be Peter Farrelly’s Green Book, which is flying under the radar and is a genuine threat in terms of warming the cockles of the heart, which appears to be priority numero uno where Oscars, punditry and, even now, film criticism are concerned. We don’t yet know Green Book’s fate. We only seen two films run the gauntlet so far: A Star Is Born and First Man. One did really well, while the other, as good as it is (the best of the year so far for me), doesn’t appear to warm the cockles of the heart. It is, mostly to men, something they can’t connect with in any regard. They all wanted to see a different movie. Despite an enthusiastic screening at the Academy, their awards pundit Scott Feinberg finished up his piece with “some pundits are worried about its Best Picture chances,” the idea being that passion decides the nominees (though it always has) and if there is no passion for this — one of the greatest films ever made about space flight — it won’t get nominated at all.
[sarcasm]Okay. This is going to be a really fun year.[/sarcasm]
A Star Is Born is the movie of the moment, topping the box office to an impressive degree. Even internationally it’s doing well (lest we forget Peter Bradshaw’s five star review). What A Star Is Born seems to have walking in the door is, in order of how we’ll watch them go down:
New York Film Critics — while I think they’re going to pick Roma, there is no way they’re letting Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga go without awarding them in one of their major categories.
National Board of Review — betting another sweep for A Star is Born
Broadcast Film Critics — I promise you, no other film but A Star is Born can win here.
A Golden Globes sweep — bet it wins Picture, Director, Actor, Actress. Has any film ever done that? With the director being the same winner as the actor?
SAG ensemble win — there are other ensembles that could get in, like Black Panther, Beale Street, Widows, even Roma. Green Book seems like a two-hander but it’s such a glorious crowdpleaser I’d be shocked if it didn’t get in. I can’t think of any movie that can beat A Star is Born for ensemble. What am I missing?
PGA win — again, another no-brainer. What can beat it?
DGA win — the only potential stumbling block for old Bradley. Can it be he wins both the First Time director and the main director award? It’s not outside the realm of possibility. His main competition for Best Director appears to be Alfonso Cuaron for Roma to win his second, or Spike Lee to win his first, and the first for any black film director in DGA or Academy history. Peter Farrelly might sneak in but it’s looking like it’s Bradley Cooper’s to lose. I never thought I would say that but here it is.
BAFTA — pretty sure this is either A Star is Born’s or Roma’s to lose.
WGA — it goes into adapted, which means it goes up against Beale Street, primarily. Does it win there? Sure, it could. I’m not sure I’d be 100% on board with this prediction but you never know.
A Star Is Born could win all of that and still lose Best Picture because of the preferential ballot.
In the era of the preferential ballot, Best Picture winners do not win a lot of Oscars. To wit:
The Shape of Water: 4 — Picture, Director, Score, Production Design
Moonlight: 3 — Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay
Spotlight: 2 — Picture, Screenplay
Birdman: 4 — Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography
12 Years a Slave: 3 — Picture, Supporting Actress, Screenplay
Argo: 3 — Picture, Screenplay, Editing
The Artist: 5 — Picture, Director, Actor, Score, Costume Design
The King’s Speech: 4 — Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay
The Hurt Locker: 6 — Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Sound Mixing
How many can A Star Is Born win?
Picture
Director
Actress
Cinematography
Song
Then it might win:
Editing
Actor
Supporting Actor
Screenplay
But winning nine Oscars, plus Best Picture, is a near-impossibility in the era of preferential ballot. We’re more likely looking at four or five wins, maybe six tops.
If it splits, it could go like:
A Star is Born — Director, Actress, Song, Sound mixing, sound editing
Green Book — Picture, Actor, Screenplay
Roma — Foreign language, cinematography
Or it could go:
A Star is Born — Picture, Actress, Song, Sound, Sound Editing
BlackKklansman — Director, Screenplay
My current predictions for Best Picture:
A Star Is Born
Green Book
Roma
First Man
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Black Panther
And Best Director:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Damien Chazelle, First Man
But also right up there: Barry Jenkins, Beale Street, Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me; Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
I cant with this ASIB hype.
I saw First Man over the weekend and I’m 100% with Sasha on it. It’s an amazing experience and it blows my mind that anybody but Damien Chazelle is expected to win Best Director. You really feel like you’re there with Neil Armstrong for the whole movie. The amount of moving parts Chazelle had to control in order to create that experience is absolutely beyond me.
Also, I would argue that First Man certainly isn’t emotionally cold as I’m hearing some people say it is. Chazelle just doesn’t feel it necessary to dwell on the emotions. He instead gives us just enough to know what to feel, which I very much appreciated because it reflected Armstrong’s tendency to quickly avoid and move on from emotions he didn’t know how to deal with. And the movie therefore doesn’t wear its heart on its sleeve, which might throw some audiences off given that they’re expecting a triumph of the human spirit type of story.
I’m not hating on films that wear their heart on their sleeve, by the way. I love those films as long as they’re done the right way.
One thing should be for sure though: First Man deserves to have Best Sound in the bag. Holy hell that sound was incredible.
In my own personal ballot, director is a dead tie b/t Chazelle and Jenkins.
I have seen “A Star is born” yesterday and I´m a bit underwhelmed, to be true. That said, I liked the performances, Cooper, Lady Gaga and Elliott are all doing a good job (Lady Gaga being the standout), but the film is too conventional and the story is plain vanilla – you pretty much know what is going to happen and when it is going to happen – Cooper and Roth surely read their Syd Field.
I´m not saying I wasn´t moved at times, but at the end it was such a shameless tearjerker that it distracted me a bit. This is all solid entertaining, a clever superstar-vehicle, but all in all pretty disappointing measured against the Oscar-hype that is going on everywhere.
I´m pretty sure that “A Star is born” will NOT be the darling of the Critics Circles, they will find some proper candidates – hello Roma, hello The Favourite et al. -, but the Globes will clearly go gaga for it… 😉
Gaga is not THAT great…it’s just that the mania blinds us from seeing it. It’s certainly not the worst performance ever committed to screen, though. Somehow “good enough” and “she wasn’t THAT bad” have been translated into “She was amazing!” and “She’s gonna win the Oscar, for sure!”
No, not really Oscar-caliber in terms of “should win” (but probably will). She was the standout of the cast, that´s what I said. But I would rank it as a good, not geat performance. There´s nothing really great about this film…
Totally agree. Her acting was better than AHS Cortez but nothing outstanding.
IMO the standouts were Cooper for sure and Elliott.
The reason I’m confident in A star is born is less about the film and more the doubt I have over other films being able to organise a front against it.
People who don’t think A Star is Born is going to win – What do you think is?
As most films haven’t been yet seen by the public, I think this is an unfair question to pose at this point. There are so many great films coming our way… First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, The Favourite, Widows, Green Book, Vice, Can You Ever Forgive Me? all look loads better than your precious Star Is Born. Even it’s trailer was a tad clunky..
Honestly, I sat down for A Star Is Born hoping to adore it and I came out of it underwhelmed. Gaga is great, Cooper is good to decent (and the more I think about him the less I like him in this film), but in my view it should have 2-3 nominations at most, let alone sweep.
Sadly, I think Cooper will win Best Actor (unless Vice or Green Book land so well with the Academy). I would bet my house on it.
I thought they banned underwhelmed.
They clearly didn’t.
If Gaga wins BAs and Cooper wins BA or BD then Star will win BP..you can bet your house on that
It might happen, it might not. Three Billboards won two acting awards and it still didn’t win Best Picture.
Its got a chart topping song and a strong contender for BD …3 Bills didn’t
I’m sorry, but Shallow wasn’t even the film’s best song…it’s the herd’s favorite, but it isn’t the BEST..
If its the herd of voters favourite then its the best
I stand by my guts:
A Star is Born: Supporting Actor (Sam Elliott), Song (preferrably one co-written by Gaga and Cooper). Nothing else.
BlackKklansman: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing.
The Wife: Actress (Glenn Close)
Green Book: Actor (Viggo Mortensen)
Roma: Original Screenplay, Foreign Film, Cinematography
Vice: Supporting Actress (Amy Adams)
Isle of Dogs: Animated
I cannot imagine how anybody but Bradley Cooper can win Best Actor this year.
It’s his to lose, but backlashes happen. I think Viggo and especially Bale might steal it from him.
I don’t know if it’ll be because of a backlash. There’s really nothing about Cooper’s performance that would warrant a backlash. I’m so happy Rockwell won last year, and the backlash of him winning because of the character he played was ridiculous. I have Viggo in third and Bale in 4th on my Gold Derby predictions. I have Gosling in 2nd but I’m prepared to move him down soon having now seen First Man. His performance is great, absolutely deserving of a nomination, but I don’t think it’s his year to win. I think one person to watch out for in terms of winning is Rami Malek. He seems like he’s nailing the role of Freddie Mercury.
That performance was not Rockwell’s best. He’s been far better in far lesser work (IE: Frost/Nixon). Not an Oscar-worthy performance in the least. But heck, he has his gold star and now we move on to somebody else!
I agree with you totally! Anything can happen, but I think of the four acting races, he’s the most comfortable frontrunner at the moment.
Black KKK is this years ”Get Out ” ..it’s never going to win BP ..what on earth are you smoking ?
BlackKklansman needs a strong critics push to get there, and the critics will probably go for Roma, instead.
But I’d be really happy to see it win anyways. It’s such a terrific movie.
Cuarón recently won, and critics have been waiting for decades for an excuse to have a triumphant Spike Lee, in my opinion. Plus Roma is in Spanish, its Foreign Language / Cinematography sweep might be considered enough
I think if Roma ends up winning Best Picture (highly unlikely, if you ask me, but probably it would be my favorite Best Picture winner in decades) thanks to their push, they would write it in their resumes.
BlackKklansman is relevant, disturbing, and extremely well made, but it feels like an afterthought at the moment.
Also a director never won best director for directing a foreign film.
Ang Lee came pretty close to do that, with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon… but probably he was the 3rd pick after Soderbergh and Scott.
Don’t feel bad for Ang Lee he ended up winning two. Think about all the great foreign directors that have not won any Oscars.
still, he wasn’t even nominated for his best film – in my book. “The Wedding Banquet” was nominated for Foreign Film and nothing else, back in 1993… it was a HUGE year (Schindler’s List, The Piano mostly) and difficult to stand out, but he was in my shortlist for director in 1993…
oddly enough, a director won Lead Actor for directing a foreign film.
This leaves First Man, Beale Street, Favourite and all three “boy” films (Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy and Ben is Back) with nothing.
Also, I don’t see Incredibles 2 not winning Animated while I think Free Solo will take documentary and the aforementioned Roma will take foreign. Makes these categories pretty easy this year.
I am not sold that “Isle of Dogs” won’t end winning Animated. It really stands out from competition, and probably they feel bad that they didn’t give a big award to Anderson for either Fantastic Mr. Fox or Grand Budapest Hotel… Anderson has already SIX nominations, zero wins.
That may be and normally with Incredibles being a sequel, I would say you have a point since none of the Cars sequels were nominated nor were Monsters University or Finding Dory, but Incredibles 2 is the biggest animated film of all time and was more critically acclaimed than the first, so I think it’s in Toy Story 3 territory now.
Besides…all these films that “stood out from the pack” didn’t win:
The Triplets Of Belleville, Howl’s Moving Castle, Persepolis, The Secret Of Kells,
The Illusionist, A Cat In Paris, Chico and Rita, Ernest And Celestine, The Wind Rises, Song of the Sea, The Tale Of Princess Kaguya, Boy and the World, Anomalisa, When Marnie Was There, My Life As a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, The Breadwinner and Loving Vincent.
Not to mention other stop motion pictures Coraline, The Corpse Bride, Frankenweenie, Paranorman, The Boxtrolls, Pirates, Shaun the Sheep and yes, Fantastic Mr Fox.
The only stop motion film to win was Wallace and Gromit so far.
how many of them were directed by renamed auteur, loved by Oscar (his last film won 4 Awards and he has personally nominated 6 times) and is a reasonable snubee at Picture, Director, Writting AND even Animated Feature (Fantastic Mr. Fox, whose status has only grown with time), and were against – main competition – mostly sequels?
Not saying Isle of Dogs doesn’t have a chance. It certainly does, but Disney/Pixar has won 12 out of the 17 Best Animated Film awards handed out so far, with an active streak of 6 in a row.
sequels… sequels… just check out how many Pixar sequels not named Toy Story actually win important Oscars.
Well Big Hero 6 for one. And the first 5 weren’t even nominated.
HAHAHAHAHA. +1
Not a bad point at all. I would be thrilled for Isle of Dogs to win Animated Feature, but I’d also be equally as happy for Incredibles 2.
It would be very cool for Isle of Dogs to win! However, the Pixar machine almost always wins. Unless your Monsters Inc. or Cars. I love Up, but Fantastic Mr. Fox should’ve won. It was so different and unlike anything that had come before it.
They did not give The Red Turtle an Oscar.
I can see that, yeah.
I haven’t seen The Favourite but it was just announced Olivia Colman will be submitted for Lead Actress. I think going for Lead, if Supporting was even an option, is a mistake. Especially in a year Lady Gaga is in most of her movie. If someone with substantially less screentime wins, some people will be upset.
“Broadcast Film Critics — I promise you, no other film but A Star is Born can win here.” — after the complete shut-out of critical obsession Lady Bird, nothing is for sure here!
But that is the point: the Broadcast Film Critics do not really function as a critics’ group.
It’s October — four months till the Oscars, and four months for people to get tired of ASIB and to realize that, whatever its merits as popular entertainment, it is not “that” good.
my point, exactly… just look at La La Land. The Best Picture winner has to have a “story” behind that justifies its vote.
2017: The Shape of Water – del Toro and fantasy being overdue.
2016: Moonlight – being an LGBT milestone and a complete masterpiece
2015: Spotlight – the pedophilia scandals of the Catholic Church
2014: Birdman – beign a “meta” lecture that connected with the very same acting branch of the academy
2013: 12 Years a slave – being the first film directed by an black director to a Best Picture win
2012: Argo – basically being a literal blow-job to the whole AMPAS (movies saved lives!)
2011: The Artist – being the first mute film to win since 1927
2010: The King’s Speech – well, this is an anomaly… I still think that The Social Network didn’t win because it looked cold in comparison.
2009: The Hurt Locker – first Best Picture directed by a woman
2008: Slumdog Millionaire – hooray for Bollywood!
2007: No Country for Old Men – the overdueness of the Coens
2006: The Departed – the overdueness of Marty
2005: Crash – the triumph of an acting ensemble and a film about L.A.
2004: Million Dollar Baby – basically, another anomaly. Voters did not have real time to think twice about the film
2003: Return of the King – the last chapter of the biggest project film has ever seen
2002: Chicago – the triumph of the adaptation of one of the most legendary musicals ever, and musicals were overdue to a return to the Best Picture label.
2001: A Beautiful Mind – marketed as a “serous” study on schizophrenia. Sorry, I can’t say that without laughing… people actually bought that.
2000: Gladiator – the triumphal return of peplum, thanks to the advance in technology
we could go on and on, there are only a few anomalies in the rule… if we see this year’s main competitors, the bacground story of A Star is Born might be the weakest of them all. It’s not a rendition to the First Man. It’s not telling a real story of racism (we got two of them). You get the idea… when camapinging starts, A Star is Born is going to be left with the charisma of their two stars at the parties, and that’s it… difficult that it won’t be perceived as an overall ego-trip and voters might switch to more “poignant” films.
It does have a story ; the oldest story in showbiz …the rise of a Star and the fall of another ; it doesn’t even matter if its been done before
told so many times and in so many forms, that the question will be… does it really STAND OUT among all the versions? Does really Lady Gaga give the sensation she’s in the same league of Legends like Judy Garland or Barbra Streisand? Objectively, Gaga is still leagues away of that status… it’s not about the film quality, it’s about if Oscar considers it “worthy” to join the same club of Gone with the Wind, Lawrence of Arabia, Casablanca, Midnight Cowboy, The Godfather I & II, Schindler’s List or Moonlight. There are other films in the running that can survive, on paper, that question (BlackKklansman, First Man, Green Book, The Favourite, etc…). The Academy has a story of choosing ORIGINAL over REMAKE.
I agree with you. I’ve blocked alfred5 as he is not someone i want to engage with, but your points are good.
you’re over thinking it, dude …sometime in the next 4 months its going to dawn on you that ASIB is the obvious winner
The Academy voting pool is trending to be less elitist and more egalitarian resulting in more populist movies ..ASIB is just the type that will win
Ugh, post like this remind me that Sasha was all ride or die over The Social Network. 1) Save the Titanic comparison till this film reaches anywhwhere near Titanic’s box office numbers.
2) just like The Social Network, ASIB appeals to a certain demographic and we just don’t know how all the flavor that has been added to Thebes Academy will impact Oscars win list.
3) That damn Actors Studio cameo of Coopers should guarantee he deserves a place in hell over an Oscar win! Pray to Bette Davis that this is true.
Y’all gotta put the Hindu Kush pipe down. ASIB is going nowhere. Come December, Mary Poppins is gonna beat up everyone and steal their lunch money. It will certainly be the nomination kingpin with a minimum of 13, and will be all anyone will be talking about. It will own the zeitgeist for weeks. I saw it a few days ago and all I can say is instant classic. Why do you think ASIB and Bohemian moved out of GG C/M? Because they know Mary’s coming and will slay all competitors. Mark. It. Down.
I hope the movie is as fun as this comment, Chase.
call me crazy but there’s a point, there… IF somehow Mary Poppins returns manages to get raves that call it “on par” with the original… think of “Mad Max: Fury Road”, for example… 10 noms, 6 wins (if I recall correctly) at the Oscars.
this seems entirely implausible! but i can’t wait to see if you’re right!
I’m with you on this. Monster hit.
If the largest perceived threat at this point is Roma, then I guess it’s time to strongly consider A Star is Born taking care of business. Why? Because of everything that was said over the course of this year about the Oscar broadcast, its waning popularity, and the changes that were ultimately made to try and strengthen their interest.
Is Roma Even going to get a theatrical release? I know it will obviously get whatever’s required to qualify, but if that means 4 walling a couple of theaters on either coast for a week or two, then that’s probably going to be the extent of it. I will believe Netflix about theatrical when I actually see it. The film I understand is not in English. I’m sure that will help its chances in the heartland when it does get that big release. Personally I cannot wait to see Roma, and in a theater, Netflix help me, but that’s not what this is about.
So let me get this straight; We’re looking today at First Man not having the legs to win because its box office is meddling, and it did 16 million this weekend. I doubt if Roma is going to make 10 million dollars in its entire run, maybe it won’t make 2 million, depending on the way Netflix plays it. So Roma, a film that literally nobody in America will have seen, and a movie in a foreign language to boot, is going to win Best Picture?
OK. And, if it does, what exactly is that going to do for the ratings? What will the following morning’s news stories be when Roma wins. I can only imagine. I admit, that would be pretty interesting to see. I just can’t imagine it at this point.
To be clear, the Academy GOVERNORS are worried about the ratings, not the VOTERS. They will vote what they deem fit. We erroneously conflate the two bodies.
Netflix if it wants to win BP *has* to delay streaming Roma ala Amazon Studios did for Manchester. Or at least wait until the final votes are submitted. I don’t know… something other than streaming at the same as its theatrical release.
As for First Man vs. Roma. I think each film has its own trajectory and narrative. First Man NEEDED a rousing opening whereas Roma doesn’t. And a ASIB needs to be unanimously loved more than those two to win b/c its artistic quotient is lower.
100% Agree. Roma winning, regardless of how “great” the movie is will not help their cause with low ratings. And I’m not buying that the VOTERS will go for Netflix period. I’d be shocked if Roma wins anything besides Cinematography is all honesty.
I’d be VERY surprised if A Star Is Born manages a screenplay nod at the Oscars. With BlacKkKlansman, Widows, First Man, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians, If Beale Street Could Talk and many more screenplays all in contention in the adapted field, I just don’t see writers going for A Star Is Born. And the only two BP winners NOT to receive a screenplay nod in the past 80 years were Titanic and The Sound of Music, two films that are in the top 5 grossing movies of all time, something that is waaaay beyond A Star Is Born’s reach. That stat alone should severely dent A Star Is Born’s BP chances (not to mention the fact that as the months progress, people will probably realise that the film’s second half leaves much to be desired!)
When we say “BIG”, are we talking about box-office, cultural or mere hype? Because I’m pretty sure that A Star is Born ain’t getting near Titanic’s box-office receipts and cultural impact, no matter how matter how I strongly believe that it should have been L.A. Confidential who should have won Best Picture or Boogie Nights as the best film of that year.
On the other hand, if it’s just mere hype, well we all know how this can just fizzle in a snap of a finger. ANd even that that I can argue that it’s has never gotten the hype that Titanic had during those years. Titanic has been the “IT” movie from where I come from for a couple of years since it was released.
I really don’t know Sasha’s motives for saying this because I refuse to see it as joining the bandwagon. It’s not even that worth joining, at this point of the race.
Not saying this as part of disrespect to Sasha, but she is part of the hype machine. I don’t mean she works on behalf of Warner Bros. But WB has created hype over ASIB as a BP contender for people to take it seriously to help its b.o. And the press is rallying around this story to create traffics over the Oscar season. Is it a frontrunner or is it not? ASIB is the perfect fodder for the early part of the Oscars talk, an accessible popular vehicle that is also well-meaning tear jerker. To be fair, all of us here are victims to this hype and narrative that WB has created.
I think it’s more a case of the names Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga getting more traffic on media, than the likes of Spike Lee, Viggo Mortensen, etc. It’s a synergy, that has put ASiB in the race mainly because of its star power… being an actually good film has nothing to do in the end, with your media coverage… if that was the case, we would have had 100 articles on “The Death of Stalin” already, instead of having the film already forgotten Oscar-wise.
Good point re Cooper and Gaga being big celebrities hence an unavoidable topic to talk about … at the moment … it’s just a narrative du jour that would make WB very happy b/c it will drive ppl to the theaters to see the movie.
As you note, I think A Star is Born has many obvious strengths that make it a frontrunner — I admit, I’m a big fan of it. But, even that aside — more than anything, I am having a really hard time seeing anything else winning, at least for now. If the main competitors are:
“First Man” – Meh box office; many find it cold/cerebral/less emotional. Those aren’t problems for people like me, but doesn’t seem like the type of film to beat a big box office love story that far more people are talking about.
“Roma” – What’s its box office going to be? 1mil? 2mil? Less? I personally can’t wait to see it, but, again, a B&W Netflix movie without much of a theatrical release with no stars, it being in Spanish, etc. Again, that doesn’t seem like a film beating an A-list box office hit with romance and tears. Especially in a year where the Academy is clearly concerned about being “more popular.” Doesn’t seem likely, no matter how many critics awards. Again, I may love both First Man and Roma (haven’t seen them), but I’ve watched the Oscar race long enough to know even “the best” films that otherwise don’t fit the Oscar bill don’t win.
“Green Book” – Ugh. I have a bone to pick here. I rarely like to be negative about films others may like, but I’ve seen this one. While I’m not surprised it won at Toronto, I would be SHOCKED if this wins. I don’t think it’s going to be a huge hit — sure, I think it’ll do moderately well ($40-75mil), but it doesn’t seem to have the zeitgeist of a Hidden Figures-type crowd pleaser that gets pretty good reviews and rode on GREAT public word of mouth and a huge box office (and, of course, even with all that mojo, Hidden Figures got but a few nom’s). But if this movie gets the hint of being a front-runner, I think it’s going to be absolutely ripped for being a white savior movie. While it’s pitched as Driving Miss Daisy in reverse, it still reeked to me of being a film that felt like it was made in 1992. I honestly felt like it made The Blind Side seem progressive; after watching it, I couldn’t help but feel the message from the movie was how much Mortensen “saves” Ali’s character…meanwhile, the only thing Mortensen learns from Ali is…to be less racist and how to write better love notes? Its handling of LGBTQ topics is even more disturbing and dated. Finally, who here would be surprised if the rather stuffy director’s branch omits Peter Farrelly? In its favor, the performances are great and the film is certainly a crowd pleaser and very funny. (I wouldn’t be surprised if it wins screenplay and/or Actor). Sorry for the diatribe on this one, but I was just bothered by the movie — and even objectively (as much as I can be, at least), it just doesn’t seem like the winner to me, especially if it does gain traction and the backlash I think would occur comes to be.
Eh, well, I guess her heart does go on at the end. However, I really don’t think the Academy go for downer endings anymore. That’s my disqualifier on ASIB taking it for now. Although it does have a bit with a dog. We just have to wait and see which movies are going to get sidelined with negative press, allegations, etc.
p.s. I’m not sure TITANIC was too big to fail. I don’t remember it being a sure thing like ROTK. I remember being happy that it won all that it did, but I don’t remember thinking I knew for sure ahead of time.
p.p.s. I can vouch for BAD TIMES AT THE EL ROYALE if anyone was considering going. I really enjoyed it. It’s like a lesser mashup of CLUE and THE PETRIFIED FOREST but still totally worth seeing in the theater. Like I keep saying, it’s a great year.
as I recall, buzz was 60/40 between Titanic / L.A. Confidential, a close call. The 11 Oscars shocked everyone, as Titanic wasn’t expected to dominate so much (despite its technical sweep being completely deserved). Some were expecting it to lose Picture and Director to L.A. Confidential, leaving Cameron with a sole win for Film Editing… and a bunch of technicals (VFX, both Sound, Score, Song, Art Direction…)… but Costume and Cinematography were up in the air, even Make Up.
A Star is Born is not a Titanic, not at all
Not sure about all this hype for the film, neither with the critics or the industry. I think this is reverse psychology of yours Sasha, putting First Man as a fresh contestant (if comparing with ASIB)
I can also see Gaga not being nominated for best actress…
In 3 months from now it will be so hated that it might not even be nominated to several other categories.
But that’s maybe because i didn’t love the movie, and i was so excited about it before. The only thing I really like is Cooper performance and the soundtrack.
Addiction and suicide may not be themes to you but they most certainly are important issues. So you bringing them up (they are indeed MAJOR issues in the movie) then handily dismissing them is somewhat disingenuous.
I am honestly asking how people think that ASIB addresses or sheds any modern day light upon the VERY important themes of addiction and suicide? I only saw enabling and dismissiveness toward alcoholism. “He always does this.” and ‘let’s take him falling down drunk up on stage with me to win the award that he is so adamantly abhors’. I am not being argumentative, I would seriously like to know what enlightenment there is in the film.
If you watched Ally “take” Jackson up onstage with her — rather than watch in horror as he stumbled up drunk of his own accord — then you saw a very different film than I did.
I did see a different film most definitely. No need to continue this for 4 more months. Trust me, I’ll avoid ever responding to you (I don’t think I have actually). It’s tiresome AF.
You’ve posted several times to trash ASIB..we get it, you don’t like it! Others disagree with you. You’re the one that’s tiresome though (and argumentative over and over again), stop projecting.
Its called exploring an issue, not enlightening. That would be pedantic. Does First Man “enlighten” Armstrong’s family loss? No, it dramatically depicts it and ties it into his greatest life achievement.
ASIB certainly used alcoholism and suicide as plot points. But I don’t think that is the same thing as investigating them in an enlightening way.
The addiction and “mental illness” issues feel tacked on. However well-meaning Cooper about them (as he also tried to tackle this on Silver Lining Playbook), the issues are buried in the melodrama of the oft-told story of rising and declining in stardom.
In other news…Scott Feinberg posted an article today on THR where he gives what appears to be several decisions from actors/actresses on category placement… I can’t tell if it’s definitive or not…. but interesting nonetheless.
That post came from what the studios have decided so it’s essentially definitive unless they change their campaigns later in the season which could happen but rarely does.
NYFC seems very likely to go for Roma , but how often do they pick the BP winner
I seriously doubt that BAFTA will go for Roma ; they went for LLL over Moonlight ; they went for Revenant over the more important Spotlight ; they went for 3 bills instead of Shape of Water
Anyway, it’s not surprising it’s been done before as it’s the eternal story of the entertainment industry, whether music or film, the birth of one Star and the death of another..the last time was 42 years ago , way off most voters radar
Yeah, ASIB definitely doesn’t seem like a BAFTA pick. I could see them going all in on The Favourite, though.
NYFCA going for “Roma” is not a deal breaker. They occasionally get right and this seems likely to be one of those occasions.
BAFTA has become unreliable these past few years. They are trying to predict Oscars or simply do not watch the contenders as they seem to be out of step with Academy’s taste. BAFTA have done bad when it comes to nominations that they leave themselves few option which will overlap with Academy. Either they should go their separate way or pay better attention to the actual race. They are half in and half and end up stuck in no man’s land.
“A Golden Globes sweep — bet it wins Picture, Director, Actor, Actress. Has any film ever done that? With the director being the same winner as the actor?” – First Qustion: Yup, LaLa Land & One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest. Second Question: Nope, never ever. The combination of winning in Acting and Directing itself would be a first. Even Streisand did “only” win Directing for Yentl, but not Acting in a Comedy or Musical.
This is my comment after a long time. I thought I share my two cents about ASIB.
I saw it yesterday. i think my partner Mark summarized it well after the movie. He said during the movie he was thinking that he should have liked it more than he was! i had the same feeling. I liked it fine, but not impressed much. Some light spoilers ahead.
First of all, after first 45-50 minutes, it turned to be quite predictable, formulaic movie about a doomed love story. Nothing exciting, surprising, or no technical achievement. Bradley Cooper was good (his eyes were the major scene stealers!), but we have seen similar characters on screen before. I was expecting more from Lady Gaga given all the buzz. First of all, in the second half, Lady Gaga was playing lady Gaga. Just think about that SNL scene. It could easily be Gaga performing as Gaga on SNL, including those outfits and hair color…I think some people who had never seen Gaga live on stage are impressed by her vocal/singing performance and transfer it to her acting. Is it only me bothered by her non-moving forehead? Her forehead and lips looked the same regardless of her emotional standing. It would be disappointing to see Lady Gaga win Best actress for fine but not a great performance while there are some really good performances by other actresses. Also, I found it unbelievable that Ally would jump to the stage and start her duet with Jack without any rehearsal…This movie is also not any more ensemble movie than La La Land. Dave Chapelle’s character seemed like he was in the movie so it would avoid “all-white characters” criticism. Long story short, it was a fine movie, but not a best movie material, in my opinion.
Which actor are you hoping to win lead actor this year? let me guess!
I still haven’t seen other movies. Ryan Gosling was good, and looking forward to Viggo Mortenson’s performance.
Agree. Yes, the rush to getting Ally/Gaga on stage with BC – literally hours after she sang only a chorus to him – completely threw me and made me question the timeline throughout. I wanted to like it but couldn’t ever find the groove with so much rush and then drag. It’s well done, but very clumsy.
#Billboard Album #1 A Star Is Born
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0aac6a66d4dd7b32b36367c726b42cd2e3c671adccc104a3eb5f113a69a3f3d0.jpg
that was completely expected
This is getting ridiculous. I was moved by ASIB but it’s not a juggernaut. It simply is not. Will it get nominated for a bunch of Oscars? Yes. Will it win some categories, even biggies? Likely. Will it sweep the Globes? Sure.
But I can’t see Cooper winning directing for this. Maybe this is a personal prejudice. But the big issue is I don’t believe the writers branch will go for it. It’s a deeply flawed script, structurally flawed. And when big films get into writing due to best picture heat, they at least have scripts with a very solid structure.
No matter how weak adapted screenplay turns out to be, I don’t think writers will go for it. I’m not even sure directors will. I can pretty much see a snub at either DGA or, more likely, the Oscars.
To me, the likely wins for the film are 3:
Actor
Song
Sound Mixing – with this one potentially going to First Man
For actress, call me crazy but I have been predicting Colman forever.
It’s not too crazy to be predicting Colman. I would’ve said so until it was revealed A Star is Born is going into Drama instead of Comedy/Musical, because I think Gaga would’ve easily won Actress Comedy/Musical over Colman, and no one makes a comeback from that. Now Colman could have a shot if she wins Comedy/Musical. I don’t think it’s likely though. I think it’s really Gaga vs. Close.
Emily Blunt is winning the GG for comedy/musical. It is already written.
I’m not sure about that one. Emily Blunt is most certainly not going to get nominated at the Oscars, and the HFPA definitely loves predicting the Oscars. I like Emily Blunt, but I don’t see her winning at all.
If I didn’t know better, Sasha, with the number of recent pieces here on this topic I might think you’re trying to get Google keyword searches to equate “A Star is Born” with “frontrunner” in an effort to create an early flameout.
Believe me, between Sasha and your one-man hype crew, ASIB is doing a great job at taking frontrunner status all by itself.
I’ve got a lot of company out there — you either don’t get out much or don’t read. And most likely don’t see a lot of movies.
I’m sorry I’m too busy trekking through the vile wilderness of the Amazon rainforest to meet your lofty standards of film viewership. Clearly, your time is being much better spent. 😉
Once again you reduce the conversation to your constantly berating almost everyone here. Not the look.
I agree. I smell bias here too. Let’s face it, people scoffed when this project green light was announced. I personally thought its best chance was to maybe achieve a cheesy cousin to The Bodyguard. However, after seeing it twice I agree that the execution and finished product here are fantastic. Mind blowing. It puts you right onstage with the actors in the concert scenes then flips and becomes this mesmerizing, intimate depiction of falling in love..then the aftermath. Cooper and Gaga hit grand slams…her acting while singing give her a huge edge over other actresses this year and these comments of “She’s good but I don’t like Lady Gaga’s personae” (see above) are simply juvenile. Best performance means Best Actress. Period.
Same. She’s spoken about that on podcasts: purposefully not putting a certain movie that she wants to keep under the radar lower on her contender tracker, to avoid it looking like a frontrunner.
I’m thinking.. after all you have to ask yourself, is a star is born really good to win BP? Can a 4 time remake win against original movies and even more acclaimed films? I think Roma is winning this, I think that is the movie with less detractors and where everything works in harmony, direction, acting, story, I think that is what the academy always expect, if that movie were in English no one would even doubt about its frontrunner status.
A star is born seems to be a vehicle to Cooper on his way to win an Oscar for acting, I think is the time for him after 3 nominations.
Lady Gaga doesn’t seem like a winner to me, even if she’s the best there’s something about her persona that is stopping me, like I’d say before I think the year is weak and if a star is born was released last year lady gaga wouldn’t be nominated, best actress was so strong last year that you couldn’t throw out any of the nominees to put her there. McCarthy or Close are winning that.
Is Damien Chazelle the new Stephen Spielberg? Chazelle is a precocious talent and in his early and likely to be glittering career he has directed four films and three of them have or will have had BP nominations. That’s a very similar to the beginning of Spielberg’s career. I
t seems as though Chazelle has a rival in Barry Jenkins who has also started on fire having already won BP in his second effort as director, he looks likely adding another BP nomination if not another win. He could also make history as the first black man to win BD. They could rivals and perhaps the Spielberg and Scorsese of their generation?
If Chazelle is the new Spielberg, then Hurwitz is his John Williams. That First Man score, man… chills. So good.
Definitely my new favorite cinematic duo. After myself and Klaus, of course.
Why did I write STEVEN Spielberg’s name like that? Weird!
Kris Tapley has stated on Twitter that Colman is officially going Lead for The Favourite. Apparently the question mark is whether Stone doubles up with Colman in Lead, or with Weisz in Supporting. (Probably the latter.)
And now Scott Feinberg is stating that Stone is officially going Supporting.
Perfect – thanks for letting us know. Gold Derby has it that way already too.
What a disappointment, Colman could’ve won in Supporting and now she has to contend with Close and Gaga. Most people seem to believe that Supporting was more than acceptable given her screen time.
She’s an acclaimed veteran who does not necessarily need an Oscar at any cost. The publicity of a Best Actress nomination (as well as starring in The Crown) could boost her career even more, putting her in people’s minds as a Leading Actress.
Good points. I need more convincing like this.
That is sad. Colman could win Supporting. I heard recently that it was her choice. That it would be better for her career to get a BA nom and lose than win BSA. I don’t really get that logic.
Finally had the chance to see FIRST MAN last night. I should have been prepared based on how much I loved WHIPLASH and LA LA LAND, but damn… Chazelle has really done it again. In this film, he paints a portrait of a man so consumed by grief for his dead daughter that he actively seeks oblivion, because it’s the closest he’ll ever get to feeling what she felt, and it’s the only place he may ever find her again. In this movie, the moon landing is the product of a man driven by a death wish — and perhaps that’s really the only way anyone could ever have achieved a feat so staggeringly difficult and dangerous.
I simply do not understand the criticisms of this film being emotionally “cold” or “distant.” I teared up at least four or five times through the course of the film and was an utter mess by the end. FIRST MAN is a technical marvel, for sure, but it’s also an emotional stunner. I hope Chazelle, Gosling, and Foy all receive their well-deserved nominations.
Very correct about the trying to “reach” his daughter. I was really half expecting her image to be standing alone on the surface of the moon when he finally got there. Then of course he’s able to leave her bracelet up there and finally one presumes, let go of her.
Omg, I was expecting that exact thing to happen, too! I was nervous it would look hokey but hopeful Chazelle could pull it off. Glad he went with the bracelet bit instead of what I was expecting. I don’t know why I didn’t see the bracelet coming, but it took my breath away. I literally gasped when pulled it out. And then cried, lol.
I agree with you 100%. A lot of people are saying that their favourite parts of the movie was the beginning and the end … But for me I was so touched with Ryan/Claire and the interactions with his kids and the other families … I wanted to see more of it.
A theory about feeling emotional distance from the film: while I definitely wouldn’t call it “cold” or “distant” (I think it’s problem is caused quite the opposite in fact), I think that the film gets numbing pretty much after the awe of watching the sky from above in the opening sequence and it kind of does it intentionally. The whole film feels like it’s inside Armstrong’s head as he deals with grief which is a great idea but the problem is that Chazelle seems to be repeating that emotional subtext in every scene rather than exploring or building it. It’s as if the film’s grief presses the film down to the extent where little under it breaths, which once again is a terrific idea of portraying grief but it doesn’t make for interesting filmmaking if you just have the same tone in every scene for two hours.
That’s really what I love about the closing sequence. Suddenly the film opens up, it’s past the point that should have been perhaps the first 30 minutes of the film but takes up 120 instead. At that point the film actually manages to deal with its grief and give it the subtext and nuance it needs. The film is a success for doing that but I’d imagine that many might at that point be checked out of the movie already
While VICE is what I expect to win the SAG Ensemble award, I have a hunch it will be either BLACK PANTHER or CRAZY RICH ASIANS in the end. Lots of memorable, good / great performances from lots of actors in roles both big and small in both films that were also critically acclaimed, historic smash hits.
I also wouldn’t count out GREEN BOOK, the two previous crowdpleasers about race in 1960s America BOTH won this award (The Help, Hidden Figures).
For the fifth slot, sure it could be A STAR IS BORN. I don’t think it will be, though, if La La Land couldn’t make the cut, I don’t see how ASIB could. I would probably predict something like BOY ERASED (4 acclaimed central performances plus all the promising young actors playing the other victims of conversion therapy) or even more likely MARY POPPINS RETURNS.
Yep, my top5 is
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
Alt. Boy Erased
I’m sure ASIB will be up for lots of awards in the next few months, I just don’t think this will be one of them.
I think The Favourite and Beale Street have a solid chance of making it in. I think only 1-2 of the “populist” movies (BP, CRA, MPR) makes it in, certainly not all three.
Black Panther
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Good calls, I didn’t predict them because SAG has never embraced Lanthimos actors before and at this very moment I’m not feeling lots of passion for Beale Street even though 1. The Favourite is def his most accessible film yet so SAG could embrace it easily 2. Beale Street could easily pick up steam, as well.
There are lots of elements loved about The Favourite, but every review and discussion goes on about the acting ensemble. I think it has a very good SAG shot.
Which would be great!
Mary Poppins Returns can so easily be too late for SAG, though. Especially if Disney doesn’t think it’s a contender they might just not care
https://deadline.com/2018/10/disneys-mary-poppins-returns-wows-exhibitors-first-screening-1202482082/
It will be definitely screened for SAG voters, too.
That’s good. I was starting to wonder if it was going to even kill its song nomination chances by screening too late. But it’s weird that they haven’t seemed to even lift a finger to get anyone else see it. What help is screening it to exhibitors at this point going to do since it’s already perhaps the biggest event of Christmas?
There was an industry screening in September. Bette Middler praised it onTwitter. https://twitter.com/BetteMidler/status/1045140033458581505
Isn’t Green Book a two person show just like La La Land?
It is WITH the added bonus of a large, Italian family, several of them scene stealers in their own right.
Come on! ASIB is not Titanic. Where’s the ship turning upside down and people dropping into the ocean? Yes, the love story in Titanic put its fate over the top, but it’s the special effects that made it the Oscar worthy epic.
and I also saw First Man on saturday. i felt more emotional connection with that movie than I’d expected. I was glad that Chazelle didnt turn Armstrong into a super hero. I liked that Armstrong was a very vulnerable character, a father and husband more than anything else. Overall acting was quite good, especially Claire Foy. I am not sure how much attention it will get from Oscars, but I really enjoyed that movie.
I saw ASIB last week and I think I havent seen the same movie as everybody else. I thought the movie was a completely mess and I didnt connect at all with it. Bradley Cooper is fine and Gaga is ok, bur far from extraordinary. It would be a shame in a great year for female actors such an ordinary performance prevails. Gwyneth Paltrow and Sandra Bullock will be happy though because they will no longer be the worst best actress winners ever. As for the ensemble SAG awards, it would be also a shame if the movie get a nomination. ASIB is Cooper and Gaga “show” and only, where´s on Earth this is an ensemble? Sam Elliot has like two small good scenes and the rest of the cast do nothing.
Now wait just a minute, Sandra Bullock 100% deserved to win that year.
Nah. Carey Milligan FTW.
No, Dave Chapelle has like two scenes. Elliott does more than enough. He has the scene putting Jackson to bed and talking to Ally. Then a few scenes during the sound checks to concerts. Then a really good one when Jackson confronted him about their dad’s grave. Then he has one behind the scenes at SNL. Then he has his best one when Jackson admits he was his idol growing up. And then he has the last one with Ally talking about music being 12 octaves. And almost any of those scenes could be considered “Oscar scenes”.
Sorry, no. Too much nonsense to adequately refute.
Deep! This is going to be so tiresome for 4 more months.
And awards season starts… The Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards nominees:
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Crime + Punishment – Director: Stephen Maing (Hulu)
Dark Money – Director: Kimberly Reed (PBS)
Free Solo – Directors: Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Hal – Director: Amy Scott (Oscilloscope)
Hitler’s Hollywood – Director: Rüdiger Suchsland (Kino Lorber)
Minding the Gap – Director: Bing Liu (Hulu)
RBG – Directors: Julie Cohen, Betsy West (Magnolia Pictures, Participant Media)
Three Identical Strangers – Director: Tim Wardle (Neon, CNN Films)
Wild Wild Country – Directors: Chapman Way, Maclain Way (Netflix)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – Director: Morgan Neville (Focus Features)
BEST LIMITED DOCUMENTARY SERIES
America to Me (Starz)
Dirty Money (Netflix)
Elvis Presley: The Searcher (HBO Documentary Films, Sony Pictures Television)
Flint Town (Netflix)
One Strange Rock (National Geographic)
The Fourth Estate (Showtime Networks)
The Zen Diaries of Garry Shandling (HBO)
BEST ONGOING DOCUMENTARY SERIES
30 for 30 (ESPN)
American Masters (PBS)
Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (CNN)
Frontline (PBS)
Independent Lens (PBS)
Making a Murderer (Netflix)
POV (PBS)
The History of Comedy (CNN)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi – Free Solo (National Geographic Documentary Film)
Bing Liu – Minding the Gap (Hulu)
Morgan Neville – Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features)
Kimberly Reed – Dark Money (PBS)
Rüdiger Suchsland – Hitler’s Hollywood (Kino Lorber)
Tim Wardle – Three Identical Strangers (Neon, CNN Films)
BEST FIRST TIME DIRECTOR
Cristina Costantini and Darren Foster – Science Fair (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Heather Lenz – Kusama – Infinity (Magnolia Pictures)
Bing Liu – Minding the Gap (Hulu)
Stephen Nomura Schible – Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda (MUBI)
Rudy Valdez – The Sentence (HBO Documentary Films)
Chapman Way and Maclain Way – Wild Wild Country (Netflix)
BEST POLITICAL DOCUMENTARY
RBG – Directors: Julie Cohen, Betsy West (Magnolia Pictures, Participant Media)
Dark Money – Director: Kimberly Reed (PBS)
Fahrenheit 11/9 – Director: Michael Moore (Briarcliff Entertainment)
Flint Town – Directors: Zackary Canepari, Drea Cooper, Jessica Dimmock (Netflix)
Hitler’s Hollywood – Director: Rüdiger Suchsland (Kino Lorber)
John McCain: For Whom the Bell Tolls – Directors: George Kunhardt, Peter W. Kunhardt, Teddy Kunhardt (HBO)
The Fourth Estate – Directors: Liz Garbus, Jenny Carchman (Showtime Networks)
BEST SPORTS DOCUMENTARY
Andre the Giant – Director: Jason Hehir (HBO)
Being Serena (HBO)
Free Solo – Directors: Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (National Geographic Documentary Film)
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection – Director: Julien Faraut (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Minding the Gap – Director: Bing Liu (Hulu)
The Workers Cup – Director: Adam Sobel (Passion River)
Wild Wild Country (Netflix)
BEST MUSIC DOCUMENTARY
Bad Reputation – Director: Kevin Kerslake (Magnolia Pictures)
David Bowie: The Last Five Years – Director: Francis Whately (HBO Documentary Films)
Elvis Presley: The Searcher – Director: Thom Zimny (HBO Documentary Films, Sony Pictures Television)
Lynyrd Skynyrd: If I Leave Here Tomorrow – Director: Stephen Kijak (Showtime Networks)
Quincy – Directors: Alan Hicks, Rashida Jones (Netflix)
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda – Director: Stephen Nomura Schible (MUBI)
Whitney – Director: Kevin Macdonald (Roadside Attractions, Miramax)
MOST COMPELLING LIVING SUBJECT OF A DOCUMENTARY (ALL LISTED IN THE CATEGORY WILL BE HONORED AT THE EVENT)
Scotty Bowers – Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood (Greenwich Entertainment, Kino Lorber, Starz!)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg – RBG (Magnolia Pictures, Participant Media)
Alex Honnold – Free Solo (National Geographic Documentary Film)
Joan Jett – Bad Reputation (Magnolia Pictures)
Quincy Jones – Quincy (Netflix)
David Kellman and Bobby Shafran – Three Identical Strangers (Neon, CNN Films)
John McEnroe – John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Leon Vitali – Filmworker (Kino Lorber)
MOST INNOVATIVE DOCUMENTARY
306 Hollywood – Directors: Elan Bogarin, Jonathan Bogarin (PBS, El Tigre)
Free Solo – Directors: Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi (National Geographic Documentary Film)
Hitler’s Hollywood – Director: Rüdiger Suchsland (Kino Lorber)
Ryuichi Sakamoto: Coda – Director: Stephen Nomura Schible (MUBI)
Wild Wild Country – Directors: Chapman Way, Maclain Way (Netflix)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – Director: Morgan Neville (Focus Features)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
306 Hollywood – Cinematographers: Elan Bogarin, Jonathan Bogarin, Alejandro Mejía (PBS, El Tigre)
The Dawn Wall – Cinematographer: Brett Lowell (The Orchard)
Free Solo – Cinematographers: Jimmy Chin, Clair Popkin, Mikey Schaefer (National Geographic Documentary Film)
Minding the Gap – Cinematographer: Bing Liu (Hulu)
Pandas – Cinematographer: David Douglas (Warner Brothers)
Wild Wild Country – Cinematographer: Adam Stone (Netflix)
BEST EDITING
Dark Money – Editor: Jay Arthur Sterrenberg (PBS)
Filmworker – Editor: Tony Zierra (Kino Lorber)
Free Solo – Editor: Bob Eisenhardt (National Geographic Documentary Film)
John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection – Editor: Julien Faraut (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
Three Identical Strangers – Editor: Michael Harte (Neon, CNN Films)
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? – Editors: Jeff Malmberg, Aaron Wickenden (Focus Features)
I’d also like to mention that Minding the Gap is in my opinion one of the best films of the year so far so I hope this gets more people to see it
Thanks for sharing!!
ASIB has peaked too early and I just don’t see how this version could win BP when the classic Garland version didn’t. I cannot see any way Cooper wins Best Director. This is not a director’s film. This is an actor’s film. If you look at the most recent Best Director winners, they were all for films that were unique visions. How is that true for ASIB? What is unique about it?
ASIB will win *because* the 1954 version didn’t, not in spite of that fact. If a version of ASIB had already won Best Picture, then yes, rewarding this remake would feel been-there-done-that. But as it is, ASIB is a beloved property that, in many eyes, has gone under-awarded by the Academy for many decades. They will view honoring this one as a way of belatedly honoring the legacy of all the versions that have come before.
I said this exact thing on this site yesterday. Clearly the Star backlash has started on here, but it’s hasnt with the public yet to my knowledge. People still going gaga over it. Pun intended.
It has started in the public. Yes people are going to see it but, I have heard more it didn’t live up to expectations than wow that was great. As a woman, many of my friends don’t feel it plays well in the #MeToo era. There is a reek of misogyny to it. For me there were two great moments in the movie—the Gaga singing part of Shallow and Always Remember Us This Way. Other than that ….eh. And why did Cooper cut to himself at the end barely croaking that song out with Gaga? That should have been Gaga’s moment all by herself. No female star/director would have ever been able to get away with that. To end, a friend send me this review from Vice which she said summed up how she felt. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/pa9w8m/a-star-is-born-is-bad-review I agree with a lot of this.
I’m glad you brought the ending up. I thought it was Cooper reminding the audience that it’s a love story between two people and it’s probably was effective for some people in that sense. But I think he really cut Gaga’s chance of winning the Oscar not allowing her the crescendo that we all expected for her to have and deliver.
Disagree. That’s the classic version. This one isn’t. And it’s not that good to boot.
No one — absolutely no one — cares about the “legacy” of the 1937 version, which few have seen and most have forgotten, or the 1976 version, which was schlock. So we’re basically talking about the beloved 1954 version and of Garland’s revered performance in that version.
So you think there are waves of Academy voters who believe that they “honour” the old version and Garland by giving the Oscar to this new version, and to some pop star named Lady Gaga???
If there’s a movie you absolutely love and it was basically snubbed at the Oscars, would you vote for a new, lesser version starring a somewhat annoying pop star in order to honour that version you love? I don’t think so. I think you’d never vote for the new version in a million years.
Thanks for telling me how I would vote in that scenario. (You’re completely wrong, by the way.) And thanks for your dismissive description of Gaga as a “somewhat annoying pop star.” Very classy and doesn’t at all betray your personal bias against the film.
Hey, don’t be so delicate!! I like your messages, but I’m debating a point with you. I’m not trying to attack you. I’m expressing my opinion about how the Academy might view ASIB.
As i said in a previous discussion we had just a few days ago, I quite LIKED A Star is Born. And that I thought Gaga was very good in it. And Cooper was even better.
And it may well win some major awards this winter. But I disagree with your argument that it will get votes from people who love the 1954 version and feel it was unjustly snubbed and ought to be rewarded now.
My comment about Gaga as a “somewhat annoying popstar” was about how Academy voters might think of her. And in fact, you yourself said only a few days ago on this very site that there was no way the Academy would vote for a mere pop singer in her first movie over an established actress like Glenn Close. We’re making the same point — will her perceived status as a “mere” pop star harm her chances?
Sorry for my knee jerk reaction. Bad internet habit to always assume the worst from people. I’m always happy to have an actual debate rather than an exchange of hot takes! 🙂
No worries — I can sometimes have a snarky tone that isn’t really intended. It’s interesting — we both see ASIB as having potential for Oscars, but for slightly different reasons. Cheers!
So your point is… remake it till it eventually wins? Lol
Yeah I don’t see at the moment Bradley Cooper winning Best Director over Best Actor. There seems to be a narrative that’s in his favor for Best Actor, and its working. Apparently Ms. Stone is one of 59 people total on GoldDerby as of right now who thinks Viggo is out front. While about 1,100 are saying Bradley Cooper is the frontrunner.
Frame your comment for posterity and take a look at it after the awards
ASIB is not ”peaking” it’s building momentum that will steamroll any opposition
It’s doing very well at the BO and has two acting ”stars” to generate support ;plus a chart topping song ..it’s like a wave that is going to simply surge to victory ..well I mean , just look at the opposition that is weak and fragmented …Predicting it to win BP is an easy call , but a much more difficult prediction is what will be its nearest rival ?
It’s likely winning song and one acting, most probably lead male actor. that’s it.
Now I know it’ll win BP , and when it does you’ll be claiming that ”you always knew it would”
Nope. It’s just not that good of a movie. It will be nominated but won’t win.
Peaked too early? It was released 10 days ago!
You’re still holding out for Viggo to win Best Actor. I don’t see that happening. He could win the Golden Globe in the Comedy category, but Cooper is winning it in the Drama category which the following precursors almost never ignore.
Is Green Book confirmed for Comedy at the Golden Globes? I know A Star Is Born is going Drama.
Nothing’s confirmed, not even ASIB’s status as a Drama, because it’s ultimately up to the HFPA (not the studio) to decide which category each film will compete in. But right now I think it’s generally agreed upon that Green Book is going to compete as a Comedy.