Awards Daily’s Oscar Squad came together to suss out our predictions for this year’s still kinda foggy Oscar season. There is much disagreement across all categories. Our consensus does seem to point more towards wishful thinking, or people we want to get nominated and/or win, rather than predicting how we think it will go. This is a natural response to an unpredictable season where there are so many unknown variables.
Like — Will this be the year that the Telluride winning streak ends? Maybe. If not, it will have to be Roma, First Man, or Can You Ever Forgive Me.
Like — Will A Star is Born simply sweep the season, maintaining its early lead and never showing any signs of slowing down? That means, if my calculations are correct, it will have to win Globes, PGA, DGA, SAG, and onward to Oscar. It’s something we can’t know. All we know are three things: people love it, it’s making a lot of money, and it might “fix” the Oscars low ratings conundrum.
Like — Will some other flying-under-the-radar movie rise up and suddenly be the Birdman-like winner, surprising everyone but becoming unstoppable? Who knows!
Like — Which of the revolutionary, groundbreaking black film directors this year will rise up and win Best Director for the first time ever? Beale Street? BlackKklansman? Black Panther? Widows? What a year, right?
Like — What is going to happen with Vice?
Like — Mary Queen of Scots? On the Basis of Sex?
Like — Will voters at last embrace Netflix? Superhero movies? Can a black and white film in another language win Best Picture?
Like — New members are a mutation in the evolution of the species known as Oscar. Will they create a new species? Will things change THAT much?
We just don’t know anything yet, so that is why there are hints here and there of films and performers people might be advocating for but have no possible shot of actually making it into the race.
Remember the rules:
Actors are not critics.
Actors like actors. Lots of actors. Actors that drive plots. Do things. Save people. Act.
Actors aren’t so big on visual effects driving the plots.
Branches choose nominees, whole Academy chooses winners.
Critics are hundred or so. Guilds and Academy are thousands or so, as in:
DGA — 15,000 or so.
SAG — 150,000 (2,000 on nominating committee)
PGA — 6,000 or so.
Academy — 7,000 or so.
The preferential ballot means that a film does better if it’s liked and loved but not hated than a film that is loved and hated. Only Best Picture is decided this way, all other categories can build on regular, passionate momentum.
And away we go! Take these with a grain of salt – which will crystalize in the coming months. Nobody knows anything YET.