Awards Daily’s Oscar Squad came together to suss out our predictions for this year’s still kinda foggy Oscar season. There is much disagreement across all categories. Our consensus does seem to point more towards wishful thinking, or people we want to get nominated and/or win, rather than predicting how we think it will go. This is a natural response to an unpredictable season where there are so many unknown variables.
Like — Will this be the year that the Telluride winning streak ends? Maybe. If not, it will have to be Roma, First Man, or Can You Ever Forgive Me.
Like — Will A Star is Born simply sweep the season, maintaining its early lead and never showing any signs of slowing down? That means, if my calculations are correct, it will have to win Globes, PGA, DGA, SAG, and onward to Oscar. It’s something we can’t know. All we know are three things: people love it, it’s making a lot of money, and it might “fix” the Oscars low ratings conundrum.
Like — Will some other flying-under-the-radar movie rise up and suddenly be the Birdman-like winner, surprising everyone but becoming unstoppable? Who knows!
Like — Which of the revolutionary, groundbreaking black film directors this year will rise up and win Best Director for the first time ever? Beale Street? BlackKklansman? Black Panther? Widows? What a year, right?
Like — What is going to happen with Vice?
Like — Mary Queen of Scots? On the Basis of Sex?
Like — Will voters at last embrace Netflix? Superhero movies? Can a black and white film in another language win Best Picture?
Like — New members are a mutation in the evolution of the species known as Oscar. Will they create a new species? Will things change THAT much?
We just don’t know anything yet, so that is why there are hints here and there of films and performers people might be advocating for but have no possible shot of actually making it into the race.
Remember the rules:
Actors rule.
Actors are not critics.
Actors like actors. Lots of actors. Actors that drive plots. Do things. Save people. Act.
Actors aren’t so big on visual effects driving the plots.
Branches choose nominees, whole Academy chooses winners.
Critics are hundred or so. Guilds and Academy are thousands or so, as in:
DGA — 15,000 or so.
SAG — 150,000 (2,000 on nominating committee)
PGA — 6,000 or so.
Academy — 7,000 or so.
The preferential ballot means that a film does better if it’s liked and loved but not hated than a film that is loved and hated. Only Best Picture is decided this way, all other categories can build on regular, passionate momentum.
And away we go! Take these with a grain of salt – which will crystalize in the coming months. Nobody knows anything YET.
Reviews of Bohemian Rhapsody are coming in on Twitter…not good as I suspected. Never thought it looked good. Can’t wait to see how fast the experts remove the movie and Malek from their predix on Gold Derby. 🙂
Ouch it’s at 49 on Metacritic.
I also don’t think Mary Queen of Scots looks good at all based on the trailers which is a shame. I hope it is great but that’s another one at this time I think anyone predicting anything for will be wrong. And that’s including acting noms
Yeah, I don’t know how Malek remains a slam dunk with such bad reviews. He had 18 of 26 critics (~70%) backing him for a nomination as of today, right behind Cooper and Mortensen.
Not surprised at this. I was forced to watch the trailer (I don’t like to watch trailers, but I can’t exactly cover my ears and sing la-la-la in the theater either) when I went to see A Star is Born and, yeah, it did not look promising…
I don’t know that Malek will be removed. After reading reviews I just put him in… Everyone is falling in love with his performance they just don’t like the movie
First Man: liked it a lot, but unfortunately can’t rave like some others. Gosling and Foy are fantastic, but the most memorable thing is Hurwitz’s score. He really could become the next John Williams: can make music full of freshness and life even when it’s not a central part of the movie, like Whiplash or La La Land.
The score is definitely the best thing about it. But I also love everything else almost as much. 🙂
The guy predicting Star is Born to win Cinematography over Cuaron is smoking some seriously potent shit.
Yeah, I thought that was weird too…
What is your favourite scene this century? We know about films but I want scenes are your favourites. They could come from good films or bad films.
Three scenes stick out for me this century: Cellar scene in”Zodiac”, the hand held camera shot where the guys leave the cafe in “Mulholland Drive” and the shocking scene in “Cache” (you know the one I mean).
There are other honourable mentions like the pool scene in “Let The Right One In”(a film with many great and disturbing scenes and I think it is easily the best horror film this century), coin toss scene and the scene with Chigurh and Carson in NCFOM(I think I might prefer the latter as it reveals all), the explosion scene at beginning of “The Hurt Locker” and that long single shot in “Atonement”. Might I also add “The Florida Project” bathroom scene which has stayed with me for a long time. Oh, and the last scene in “The Social Network”(Fincher doing what he does best).
I can’t come up with a complete list, but some that come to mind are the opening scene of Gravity, the final performance in Whiplash, the opening number of La La Land, the tequila scene in Y Tu Mamá Tambien, and the Carla/Chigurh talk in No Country for Old Men come to mind.
The Dark Knight: Joker in the cop car
La La Land: final sequence
The Social Network: In The Hall Of The Mountain King
Captain America: Civil War: airport fight
Call Me By Your Name: final shot
Return Of The King: “I can carry you”
Ex Machina: dance sequence
Lady Bird: drive around the airport
The Departed: elevator scene
Atonement: Dunkirk
Whiplash: final performance
Kill Bill 1: Crazy 88 fight
Matrix Reloaded: car chase
That’s just off the top of my head. I’ll probably think of more.
Jessica Chastain at the end of Zero Dark Thirty or the ending sequence of La La Land are two that come to mind
Mulholland Dr.:
1. Club Silencio
2. The Cowboy
3. Winkies’
Probably something from Lord of the Rings
In the Mood for Love and 2046:
1. The master shot where Leung and Cheung are talking about breaking up in the edge of the frame (at least that’s how I remember that scene going) in In the Mood for Love
2. The shared closing scene
Lost in Translation:
Closing scene
There Will Be Blood:
“I Drink Your Milkshake”
No Country for Old Men:
“And then I woke up”
The Social Network:
The opening and closing scenes
The Tree of Life:
This film is a flood of great scenes but it feels difficult to pick an individual scene so let’s say the beach sequence near the end
The Master:
“I Wanna Get You on a Slow Boat to China”
Inside Llewyn Davis:
Closing scene
The Wolf of Wall Street:
The reverse shot the movie closes with
Inherent Vice:
1. Shasta shows up
2. “I’m not your brother” “No but you could use a keeper”
Carol:
1. Closing scene
2. Abby comes to get Therese
Moonlight
1. At Kevin’s house
2. The diner
Silence:
The closing shot
Call Me by Your Name:
1. Visions of Gideon
2. Michael Stuhlbarg’s monologue
Twin Peaks: The Return
1. “What year is this?”
2. “New Mexico, 1945”
Burning:
Closing scene
There’s just too many but here’s a few:
Atonement – Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name – final scene
Brooklyn – when the husband sees Ronan in the final scene
Tree of Life – that long sequence in the middle of the film
Requiem for a Dream – the final sequence
Match Point – when the ring bounces on the railing
Mommy – when the mom is having a dream that her son ended up being “successful”
Gladiator – when he’s re-united with his family in the afterlife
12 Years a Slave – Lupita and the soap
Woody Harrelson’s pathetic death scene in No County for Old Men.
Great question. The first that came to mind were the ending of “Captain Phillips” (Hanks’ performance when he’s in shock), “Laurie Metcalf” driving around the airport in Lady Bird, the opening of “La La Land,” “This is Me” from Greatest Showman, the final scene of “The Force Awakens,” the final scene in Danny Boyle’s “Millions,” the scene in “Devil Wears Prada” where Streep’s Miranda is exhausted at home. I was also really taken by the long takes in Birdman but I’ve had to watch it again to pick one.
I really like your top 3: Mulholland Dr. and Cache would be two of my top 10 films of the 2000s overall (along with No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, among others) and Zodiac is sorely underrated.
Let the Right One In is also sorely underrated and features some of the best cinematography, atmosphere, and “child” acting that I’ve seen in the past 18 years.
The first scene to come to mind is the candlelit scene in Once Upon a Time in Anatolia (and actually a scene in The Wild Pear Tree). There’s also an incredibly memorable and beautiful dancing scene in Burning that has already stayed with me for a couple months.
I’m curious: which scene in The Wild Pear Tree stood out that strongly to you? The film has a lot of really fascinating sequences but I can’t think of one that was signifcantly more brilliant than the others
I just loved the scene at the tree where the lead character meets his old friend and the way it was filmed. Wouldn’t be as strong as the tea-serving scene in Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, but it also benefits from the recency effect.
I like your taste. md and Cache are the most mesmerising films this century. I cannot stop analysing them death. “Zodiac” too, but mostly for Fincher’s technic. Those three and “Boyhood” are my top four of this century. The three scenes I mentioned outstanding scenes in outstanding films. And they all seem the same thing in common: They are all horror scenes or play out like that. They are perfect scenes in nearly perfect films.
Strudel and farmhouse scenes in Inglorious Bastards; Calligraphy/ arrow scene and Jet Ali/Donnie Yen fight scene in Hero; Zhang Ziyi dance scene and bamboo forest fight scene in House of Flying Daggers; tea ceremony, boy with flute scene, and naval battle scene in Red Cliff.
The one that comes to mind immediately is the Galadriel monologue at the beginning of The Fellowship of the Ring, and everything shown during that (up until she says “for the time soon come when Hobbits will shape the fortunes of all”). Then there’s the ending of the same movie, and, really, more or less everything in-between (maybe I can also single out Gandalf’s death and Galadriel’s temptation, but there are heaps more)… Basically all of the siege of Helm’s Deep (especially their heroic last charge) in The Two Towers, and Sam’s speech during that other battle in the same movie. (Or was that in the third movie?) The lighting of the beacons, the first scene with the dead army – in the cave – and the first few endings of The Return of the King are also definitely there. Probably other stuff in those movies I’m forgetting…
Then, the ending of Interstellar (when he reunites with his daughter, as well as the cutaway – if that’s the proper term – to Anne Hathaway’s character on that planet), the sequence on the moon in First Man (oh, man, that score…), the ending of Frozen (the emotional bit), the explanatory flashback at the end of When Marnie Was There, and the song, the ending of Rogue One, the ending of Toy Story 3, the ending of Les Miserables (from the death scene to the very end – I’m heavily into powerful endings, or what I consider to be powerful endings, you may have noticed, so this list will be made up of mostly those… basically, any movie that has an ending which really moves me or leaves me awestruck is instantly going to become a favorite), the scene in Inception where he explains what actually/eventually happened with his wife, as well as the scene at the end, in the last level, with the two of them and Ellen Page’s character in that flat, or whatever it was, the flashback scene at the beginning of Up (obviously), the first time Latika’s theme plays in Slumdog Millionaire (which is, I think, when they’re separated as kids – even if that’s not the first time, that’s still the scene I mean), the last scene in Juno, the ending of Pan’s Labyrinth, the ending of Letters from Iwo Jima, the time loop in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, the ending of Before Sunset, the scene in Finding Neverland when – SPOILER – Kate Winslet’s character dies, the final number in Chicago, the ending of Ghost World, the ending of Moulin Rouge! – and movies that came out in the year 2000 don’t count, right? So, no Gladiator, Almost Famous or Traffic… (All of which had scenes I would have included.)
There’s also a scene in A Beautiful Mind where he and his wife have a very emotional moment, but I don’t remember enough about it to properly indicate which of them it is. It’s been so long since I last saw that movie… But I do know it moved me deeply, so it should be on the list. Obviously, there are others too, but I had to go off a list of favorite movies and try to remember they most powerful scenes in each of them… I’m glad you didn’t say all time 🙂 – it might have taken up my whole day! Some of my absolute favorite movies of their years, and not only, aren’t represented (such as Little Miss Sunshine, The Big Sick, 12 Years a Slave, Arrival, etc.), but that’s only because no one scene stands out as much in those, and they just move me in many smaller ways, never with one big blow. 🙂 But just as much as the others, in most cases. And, of course, there are many other great scenes I had to leave out, just so I didn’t write a whole novel in reply to a simple question…
You reminded why I love LOTR. Greatest film trilogy ever. thank you. I recently watched the second film and I didn’t realise how Shakespearean it is. There’s a lot to pick from but if I had to pick one scene it would have to be Smeagol and Gollum scene. Galadriels temptation scared the crap out off me but it also underlined what a great actress Blanchet was.
🙂 I know, right?!… Those movies are just shockingly good. They’re beyond movies. They’re the perfect marriage between mythology/literature/poetry and movies. It’s hard to even describe. Definitely better than the book, as good as that is.
The Two Towers is the most powerful of the three, for me – I’ve thought this for a long time. It’s very likely my favorite one to rewatch. The Fellowship of the Ring is the most memorable, though, and almost equally powerful. Every line and every shot of that movie is pure gold. (The only thing that sucks for me is that I of course know it virtually by heart. For that reason, I’ve not watched these movies in quite a while, building up to that big rewatch of all three – I’ve never, since they’ve all been out, watched them independently -, which might still be years away. I’ll know when the time is right. It sucks I can’t keep watching stuff I know too well over and over… I envy those who can, a little bit. Like Sasha. It’s an awesome skill.) The Return of the King is almost as good as the other two, which is an insane standard to follow in the first place, so that’s saying something…
I don’t know if either of them, on its own, is the greatest movie ever made (if so, then my vote would go to Fellowship), but put together… yeah, probably. 🙂 (Even after the recent rewatch, I still don’t agree with Citizen Kane as best ever, not at all. I also just saw There Will Be Blood again, and I still think that – while an extremely well made movie – is insanely overrated. Even more so than Citizen Kane. Sorry to people who don’t like that word, but it’s a word nevertheless and yes, it very much can be applied to movies, since people do rate, compare and rank them. Anyone who complains about this word being used is just flat out wrong. It’s just a really useful word that expresses an actual opinion about an actual thing that happens within the movie lovers community. It’s not a bad thing, either. It’s just a thing, nothing more, nothing less.)
Galadriel’s temptation is just unreal… One of the most mind-blowing things I’ve ever seen in movies.
It’s wierd that I love LOTR. Usually I don’t like fantasy/sci-fi films. Well, I don’t tend to like sci-fi but I love Star War original trilogy, Ridly Scott’s “Alien” and “Blade runner”, “Back to the Future”, “2001: A Space Odyssey”, “The Terminator 1 and 2” and Spileberg’s ET and Close Encounters to name a few. I don’t know but I am not into sci-fi films unless they are of top level greatness. I think because I do not follow or want to follow complex science theories and I hate suspension of reality. I mean, I love original Star Wars because of the characters, stunning visuals, music and cool gadgets. What else is there? I have trouble buying the non-earth bound elements in sci-fi films but I love the original Star Wars because it has a wink to the audience and has its tongue firmly in its cheek. I mean, you just look at Harrison Ford and you know it’s just a bit of fun. I think that’s the way it should. I hate it when sci-fi or superhero films get all serious. It’s one of the reasons I loved watching “The Guardians of The Galaxy” out of the other superhero films. I suppose the TDK was a serious film that was good. But even though Joker was dark there were comedic elements in Heath’s performance. I mean, why so serious?
I had thought that “The Two Towers” was my least favourite of the three, by smidgen, of course. Now I am not so sure. I mean, Fellowship was/is my favourite mostly because it is more earthly than the other two and it has some great interaction between Gandalf and Frodo. It just just looks better to me like the original Star Wars seems better than Empire or “The Godfather ” over part two. However, when I watch Two Towers on its own, it becomes clear that it could be the best of the three. I feel it stands better by itself rather the being the middle part of one long saga. That could explain why it looks better to me when I watch it by itself. But it seems that’s not the case with you as you have always watched them back to back. I used to do that but I can seem to do that anymore because I know the story so well that one film is enough to fill me that I don’t feel the need to watch all parts in one go. I have some issues with TROK and it has to do with that never ending ending. I mean, the film is great and has so many great things in it and that’s the way to end a film saga but the ending feels a too long as if it was waiting for appaluse or something. It is forgivable because it’s nothing to do with the main story. It just seemed it was dragging on for no apparent reason.
“Galadriel’s temptation is just unreal… One of the most mind-blowing things I’ve ever seen in movies.”
Me too. It’s one of those few occasions when a film graps by force and pulls you in. It could easily have been done badly and totally ruined it. But after that scene I really believed in the power of the ring? didn’t you? What a scene! What acting by Blanchet! She only has a cameo in the film but she lifts it. I mean, have all great actors like McKellen, Blanchet, and Lee helped it big. “Harry Potter” had some great actors but it is nowhere near it. I don’t like it that much to be honest. I think the biggest difference between the two is the screenplay and language which is on different level to other fantasy films. The actor seemed to love chewing the dialogue like they were reading Shakespeare.
It’s also not necessarily my favorite genre (fantasy, I mean – sci-fi I absolutely love), but I don’t tend to hate those movies, either. I can always, at the very least, appreciate the creativity involved.
“I think because I do not follow or want to follow complex science theories and I hate suspension of reality.”
Love both of those things. 🙂
“I hate it when sci-fi or superhero films get all serious.”
See, I love it when they get serious… 🙂 We have very different tastes in this area. So, you’re right, it’s a testament to what a magnificent movie it is that we both love The Lord of the Rings (again, for me it really feels like one movie, for the most part, given the way I’ve always watched it), even so.
“I mean, I love original Star Wars because of the characters, stunning visuals, music and cool gadgets. What else is there?”
I’m not as big on the original SW as most people, so I’m the wrong guy to ask that question. 🙂 I don’t really love it. I don’t love the way the scenes are cut (the actual way they cut from one scene to the other, like it’s an old T.V. series or something, that’s always irritated me), it takes me out of it, and I think it’s dated in some ways and not really funny. (Which I don’t mind very much, but its humour adds nothing for me and distracts, even if briefly, from the stuff in it I actually like.) But there are a lot of other things about it that are really great, so I do still like it a lot. (WAY more than any other Star Wars movie pre-2014.) But I like all of the recent instalments more, honestly (even Rogue One) – not by a huge margin, but pretty unquestionably. (Haven’t seen Solo, so I’m only talking about the other three.)
“It’s one of the reasons I loved watching “The Guardians of The Galaxy” out of the other superhero films.”
I loved that one too. I love a lot more movies (and hate fewer) than most people. 🙂 It’s always been the case.
I think I still slightly prefer The Godfather Part II (which I saw first, many years ago, and that might have something to do with it) to the original, but it’s A LOT closer than it used to be. It’s immaterial, in any case, with both being better than almost any other movie ever.
“I feel it (Two Towers) stands better by itself rather the being the middle part of one long saga.”
Definitely feels that way to me too, even though, indeed, I’ve never watched it on its own (that I can remember). Except for that first time, of course.
“I have some issues with TROK and it has to do with that never ending ending.”
Oh, me too, for sure! And not just that. (But all minor things, of course.) Even so, it’s just such a powerful movie… It more than makes up for it. But I’d still rank it third out of the three.
(Galadriel’s temptation) “It could easily have been done badly and totally ruined it.”
Exactly! But, instead, that and other scenes set up the menace of Sauron and the ring SO WELL in that movie!… It’s a thing of beauty. Clearly, Jackson should have won BD, even if he lost BP. I’ve been a defender of A Beautiful Mind’s BP win (Fellowship should have won, obviously, but I also like ABM a lot and I don’t think it was a bad choice at all, in a vacuum), but that directing loss is virtually indefensible.
Blanchett in Fellowship might be one of the best supporting performances ever, even. She has that scene, several other great scenes, the opening monologue…
The Harry Potter series is an inconsistent one, as far as I’m concerned, but I still enjoy it. Cuaron’s Azkaban and the final few movies, which David Yates directed, I really like, but the rest are not that good. And, of course, even the good ones are nowhere near as great as any of the LOTR movies. But, then again, not many movies are, period… 🙂
Paul Dani freak out in Little Miss Sunsine
You’re 100% right – that’s the most memorable scene in the whole thing. Thank you for reminding me! I have no idea why it didn’t come to mind when I was writing that whole thing above. (But that’s also a good thing, for me – it means I’m slowly forgetting at least some things about it, so I can rewatch it soon without worrying I’ll know every line and moment by heart.) It’s always been the scene that’s moved me the most – especially when Olive goes to him, when all else has failed, says nothing, and he just says “O.K.”, gets up and goes back to the car. Just perfectly sums up what family and the love within one are all about. That’s why I love that movie so much…
Other scenes that I love in LMS are, apart from the opening sequence, which Sammy mentioned, the scene with Paul Dano and Steve Carell’s characters on the pier, and the ending, basically from when the family goes up on stage to the credits.
Rabbi quoting Jefferson Airplane in a A Serious Man; sled chase scene in Grand Budapest Hotel; Ben Foster/horse scene in Leave No Trace; Melani Laurent concert/flashback scene in Le Concert; reunion scene in Manchester by the Sea
Current predictions for winners (I’m not willing to jump to the A Star Is Born or Roma predictions in either picture or director):
Picture:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Director:
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Original Screenplay:
Green Book
Adapted Screenplay:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Actress:
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Actor:
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Supporting Actress:
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Editing:
First Man
Cinematography:
First Man
Those could possibly be the winners. I am guessing your taking a stab in dark in Best Actress? Also I do not think “Green Book” is highly acclaimed to win screenplay. Film with high MC score tend to win that award. I think you are possibly looking at “Crash” for it to win , but remember that it won every award through out the year.
The actress prediction is just something random, I feel like the year is missing a very stiff and dull historical drama contender and one generally pops up each year. Thus I’m imgaining Mary Queen of Scots to be a Darkest Hour-type where a performance is so showy that it pushes the film to a best picture nomination.
As for screenplay, I’d argue that Green Book could find itself in a Crash-type situation where it sweeps the screenplay awards. If Vice doesn’t turn out to be a contender for the best picture win (which is very possible as it might be too uncomfortable for American viewers to watch), the Globes could easily go for Green Book in screenplay, it will probably waltz its way to a WGA win since I’d imagine both Roma and The Favourite will be ineligible and there aren’t that many notable contenders at BAFTA either.
And while I have serious doubts about whether Green Book’s Metacritic score will rise to over 85 (as I’m just learning to count confidence intervals for population means from a sample I played around with it a little and if we presume that the eventual Metacritic scores follow a normal distribution, we can assess that if we were to collect several collections of scores, 99% of them would have a mean of less than 83.7), it could still reach mid 70s, which would make it like A Beautiful Mind and, in my opinion the best example of a Green Book win, The Imitation Game. So I’d argue that there are precedents.
What are you predicting to win original screenplay?
Almost all of these could be right. I don’t see Ronan as Actress.
I dunno, Ronan feels due by now but it really just depends on how Mary queen of Scotts is once people start to see it. I don’t love the trailer so I’m a bit skeptical but if it’s good I could see her swooping in.
I am predisposed to like movies about royalty, so I probably will not be the best judge of it. I love Tudors, Reign, etc.
I think Bradley Cooper is going to take Best Actor as of right now. Then Best Actress is a three way race between Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman, and then of course Glenn Close. Supporting Actor I think will go to Timothee Chalamet only for now, I could see him losing momentum due to the mixed reviews for his movie. Then I’m actually predicting Claire Foy for Supporting Actress because the last two Chazelle movies both resulted in an acting Oscar, and Foy stole the show.
I like reading these out-of-the-box predictions. Have you seen Beale Street?
I haven’t seen Beale Street yet but both of the current frontrunners have notable weaknesses and it seems like the most reasonable winner from all of the other contenders. Also, if the frontrunners start winning stuff, I have so much time to switch to them but if something like Beale Street winds up being a contender, it would be really great to call it early on
Haven’t seen Beale either. So basing on outlook, it has a significant uphill battle as well. Because Jenkins’ Moonlight has won so recently and Beale is (currently) perceived as a (slightly) lesser work, the Oscars voters might not feel that generous toward Jenkins, not to mention it once again deals with the Black experience in America. Unless of course the movie is undeniably powerful and moving. And that’s why I asked if you had seen it.
This would be an insanely bad showing for ROMA and A Star Is Born after starting so strong (although I do appreciate the uphill battle for the former with Netflix, B&W and the foreign language film hurdles) and an incredible win for TIFF to win 7 of 8 top Oscars (both If Beale Street Could Talk and Green Book were TIFF premieres).
Having seen both, I don’t think either are strong enough to knock everything else out of the race.
But then again, A Star Is Born really broke to its current position at TIFF whereas its Venice reviews seemed to be referring to a picture nomination with little chance of winning. So if we were to take the current consensus of the main categories (which to me seems to be A Star Is Born/Cuarón/Green Book/Beale Street/Gaga/Cooper/Ali or Chalamet/King), it would be 8/8 films that screened at TIFF and 7/8 films that were in certain ways “defined” by their TIFF screenings.
And relating to your comments about the movies, that’s of course not encouraging, but do you feel like A Star Is Born and Roma are in a different league compared to the other contenders either? Or do you find the race to be more complicated than a puzzle of which wins picture and which wins director?
Agreed, though unfortunately film festivals (including TIFF) focus almost entirely on where the winning films actually premiered, not nearly as much where they caught buzz (which is why Venice is expected to have premiered the BP winner this year). TIFF almost always “screens” a majority of the winners. I think TIFF will lay claim to Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress and could lay claim to Actor (Mortensen) or Actress (Close) or Adapted Screenplay (Jenkins, though I’m thinking BlacKkKlansman), but Picture and Director are looking like long shots.
With respect to my personal thoughts on the strength of the contenders, my grades are as follows:
Terrific:
ROMA – 3.5/4 (same grade given to Burning, Cold War, The Wild Pear Tree, Shoplifters)
Solid:
If Beale Street Could Talk – 3/4
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 3/4
Somewhat decent, but undecided:
First Man – 3/4 or 2.5/4
A Star Is Born – 3/4 or 2.5/4
Black Panther – 3/4 or 2.5/4
Mixed:
BlacKkKlansman – 2.5/4
Green Book – 2.5/4
Haven’t yet screened The Favourite (or Vice, obviously).
The race is always more complicated than it appears.
The late October stat, the most powerful I’ve been able to find that comes up so early in the season, is against If Beale Street Could Talk. (Of course, this stat hasn’t got a huge sample size – I guess it must be around 10-15 years, not sure, we’d have to ask Sasha herself, since she’s the source of the stat -, so it can’t be too prohibitive, but it does make sense and it’s quite a powerful and definitely very effective one compared to the other stats we have right now (if any – I guess there’s the TIFF Audience Award one, but that’s quite weak, if not negligible, numbers-wise, and also the Metacritic/RT stats, which are on the stronger side, but still not as strong as this one, I would think, though they maybe can be argued to be so), so I certainly wouldn’t go against it. Details in my larger post here:
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2018/10/23/second-gurus-ring-in-for-the-season-a-mixed-bag/
Only one person is calling A Star is Born this generations Titanic. It’s not and it doesn’t need to be. It’s still a big hit with great reviews and is right up the Oscars alley because of the showbiz aspect. I don’t think that any movie is the front runner right now so I wouldn’t even call it the front runner. A Star is Born will get a lot of nominations and we will see where things will go from there.
So Sasha thinks A Star is Born might win screenplay but lose picture? That’s REALLY hard to envision, to say the least… Even so early on, when everything seems somewhat plausible.
Where’ve you been? we’ve missed you!
Long story… 🙂 Some of the usual, some other stuff… What matters is I’m back. 🙂 It’s good to see all of you guys!
It’s really good to have you back, Claudiu.
Hey! 🙂 Thanks! It’s great to be back…
We don’t even know what’s going and you come in with rationality? smh.
🙂
What about The Favorite to win and keep Telluride streak alive? It’s a strange one yes but it’s an actors film (check) with a good screenplay (check) and crafts are going to like it also (check). I don’t think it can be counted out just yet.
Same here.
Let’s focus on the real question at hand why don’t we. And that is…will Cooper sing his part of Shallow at the Oscars or will he delegate it to someone else not unlike what Ryan Gosling did for La La Land. Because you have to remember, Cooper is not singer and may not have sang anything since they shot the movie over a year ago. So he would have to practice again, and from the look of it, his schedule is pretty busy with the promotion of the movie and if he gets nominated for a bunch of other Oscars, he will be sidetracked by those. But surely Gaga has to sing since she is a singer and it would be a perfect time for her to shine. Imagine if all three songs get nominated, it will basically become the Gaga show. That makes me wonder if they will truncate the songs as they’ve done in the past to save time and keep up the pace of the ceremony. Cause I’ll be the first to admit, when they played all five songs in full, they definitely brought the show to a halt. But how do you shorten these Star Is Born songs? They are too good to do that.
All three songs can’t get nominated, Academy rules dictate that only two songs maximum can be nominated from one movie.
Isn’t 3 the maximum? Enchanted had 3.
After Enchanted and Dreamgirls they made the limit 2
Rules have changed since then. Three is the max that can be submitted, two is the max that can be nominated.
I can’t remember what the third possible song is, but I think Shallow and I’ll Never Love Again will both be nominated. And if there’s still a rule about one performer only performing one song at the show (as it happened with Enchanted as far as I know) it would make sense for Gaga to solo I’ll Never Love Again, and let some other people sing Shallow.
I think ASIB peaked way too early, I would be stunned if it could actually go all the way.
THIS!!!!
And frankly, it’s Box Office domestically is more or less at pace with Crazy Rich Asians, and no one is calling THAT film this generation’s Titanic
Couldn’t be more wrong if you tried ..it’s not ”peaking” it’s simply building momentum that will be unstoppable , like the beginnings of a tidal wave ..re-read your comment in February and then look at yourself in the mirror
This kind of cult like hyperbole is exactly why there will be a backlash
You’ve been working a full-time job at trying to create a backlash against this movie since before it opened. That’s very bizarre. Every thread that is written about it you jump on saying that it’s not going to happen. Have you even seen it?
And you are in every thread saying it WILL happen. So what, you are entitled to your opinion but Pete Miesel should just shut up ?
don’t hold your breath waiting for the backlash
Couldn’t be more unreasonable if you tried so here is a bit of precedent for you aka a list of films that were widely considered to be the “BP frontrunner” around this time in their respective year :
2017 – Dunkirk
2016 – La La Land
2015 – The Revenant
2014 – Boyhood
2013 – Gravity
2012 – Lincoln
2011 – War Horse
2010 – The Social Network
When I say ASIB won’t win because it peaked early, I’m not basing that opinion on my personal like or dislike for the movie, I base it on the simple fact that films that are deemed early frontrunners, rarely if ever win in the end. Period.
I don’t have proof, but I’m pretty sure ‘The Artist’ was a BP frontrunner from May.
I love Gravity, it was my favorite film of 2013, but 12 Years a Slave was the frontrunner as soon as it premiered.
Also Spotlight was the frontrunner going into award season, and The Revenant gave it a run for its money but not enough to overtake Spotlight in the end.
Spotlight winning BP was a BIG surprise mainly because early frontrunners rarely ever win.
Dunkirk was never a frontrunner … 12yrs a slave and Spotlight were from october onwards , and they went on to win …12 yrs became the bookies fav in september and remained so until it won …prediction ..ASIB will be the bookes fav until oscar night
Pre-precursors Dunkirk was widely considered the one to beat last year.
12 Years a Slave indeed was strong right out of the gate but this time that year (late October 2013) Gravity was coming off massive Box Office and hugely impressive critical scores (96 Metascore) so you can bet the house that it was considered a frontrunner around this time that year.
I remember that year well , ; Gravity was NEVER a frontrunner ..12 yrs a slave became the odds on favorite in september and remained so until the end ..days before the oscars 12yrs was even money 1/1 while Gravity was 4 /1…I should know as I won a large ammount of money on it
Will this be the year that the Telluride winning streak ends? Maybe. If not, it will have to be Roma, First Man, or Can You Ever Forgive Me.
What about The Favourite? It’s currently predicted by most pundits to get 8+ nominations (without Director) and it should have the support of the actors and writers (and some craftspeople).
Don’t tell the Gaga-heads, but Olivia Coleman’s people are running a picture perfect rollout to snake that Oscar away
I saw The Favourite this weekend, and Colman is great…but I don’t think she has enough screen time or varied scenes to win a lead Oscar. If they’d put her in supporting she’d have a great chance. But who knows, I’m sure she’ll fare well at the Globes and probably BAFTA
I disagree, I think she brings the kind of virtuoso, transformative acting that will blow them away. And she has a lot of screentime, the vast majority of scenes are either Stone-Colman or Weisz-Colman or Stone-Weisz-Colman. I think she might be the current favourite (no pun intended) to win.
Hmm glad you got more out of her than I did! I thought she was genuinely great, I’m just not sure it stands up as strong next to Gaga or Aparicio. I’d put her on the same level as Davis in Widows. Does great work in the screentime they have, but aren’t the driving force of the movie, if that makes sense
Clearly, the Favourite’s team saw SOMETHING in the chatter for Best Actress that inspired the category switch.
This way, if the film lands really well with the Academy, both Colman and Weisz could win,
I’m telling you, I really have the sense that all the “A Star is Born is this generation’s Titanic” talk is so overheated that a fatigued voting bloc that clearly doesn’t like being told WHO to vote for will start searching for a consensus alternative. Despite what the shills for ASIB say, being THIS much of a perceived frontrunner arguably derailed the last four October BP sure things in the home stretch. I can already think of the social media “think pieces” that will derail ASIB dead in its tracks.
Yes, they saw two much better known and Oscar-winning actresses in the same film that can feasibly win in Supporting. That’s what they saw.
Olivia Colman is a better known actress than Lady Gaga? Christ you’re a shill.
I think Bobby is referring to the fact that both Stone and Weisz are better known Oscar-winning actresses in The Favourite and would fare better in Supporting Actress if Colman was the only woman from the film placed in Actress. I don’t think Bobby was referring to Lady Gaga’s placement at all.
Hmm, this is what I think too. It could be that Colman was forced into lead because other bigger name actress saw that supporting is much weaker and could possibly even win it, even though that’s unlikely to happen.
I’m predicting Gaga for now, but I feel it’s far more like Cooper gets an acting Oscar. But as far as Colman not having enough screen time (haven’t seen the movie yet), Anthony Hopkins won the Lead Actor Oscar for The Silence of the Lambs with only 24 minutes of screen time in a 2 hour movie. So I don’t know if that argument is valid.
Hopkins also looms large as a central haunting figure over the other characters, if anything I’d say Emma and Rachel’s plotting is what looms large in each scene, not Colman as the Queen
I think Melissa McCarthy will be the snub of this year
Yes, you made that point abundantly clear in two other posts.
Chazelle is the big snub this year
I wouldn’t call him a snub per say (I wasn’t a fan of First Man), but I won’t be surprised if First Man really underperforms. (And I’m not saying that because I’m not a fan, it just has a very underloved vibe running with it.)
I think Mellisa McCarthy will be passed over
I think Mellisa M will be passed over.
Tyler Perry still made my favorite movie by a black director this year. There, I said it.
Ugh, vomit
And what your favourite film directed a white filmmaker? by a female director? by an Asian director? The last might be “The Rider”?
Oh I have no idea who’s what. I was responding to the article. That’s how it is around here and always has been. We know BLACKKKLANSMAN is supposed to be the Oscar movie by a black director this year, because Spike Lee and “these horrible times”. But quite frankly, if we’re strictly categorizing films by people who I’m sure are black, his movie is probably my least favorite that I’ve seen this year. But if we can trust True Romance then my favorite film of the year, AVENGERS| INFINITY WAR might qualify. Let’s get the dude who did Warren’s DNA test.
p.s. I don’t care if Spike Lee wins an Oscar. He should have by now.
I could see Regina King winning. She’s won Emmys three of the past four years; clearly she is very well liked. I could easily see that love coming from another Academy as well.
I am laughing because I picked her name because it was screaming out to me as the winner of Supporting actress. That’s before I knew about Beale and strength of the film. I knew she won one Emmy but now that you say she has three of the past four it makes perfect sense why she is favourite. Winning awards means you’re great and/or you are loved. That bodes well for the Oscars.
I think there is going to be a huge push (including the other potential black best director nominees) to not only nominate, but award Spike Lee for Director this year.
I get the feeling he’s going to get a screenplay award because that will reward his overdue narrative without taking away from what they actually want to award (since director will be a tougher race) a la James Ivory last year. Plus if it is a star is Born sweep the screenplay is easily the weakest part of that movie.
I thought that was likely a possibility but then the strength of Beale and the fact that it could BP makes me think it is favourite for Adapted Screenplay. Perhaps Beale might end up with BP, BD and Supporting Actress and that leaves screenplay for Lee?
Nice to see Ryan´s support for Roma – I haven´t seen it yet (checking my Netflix account frequently), but this is really the film I´m desperately looking forward to see!
Besides, I hope Thomasin McKenzie will not be forgotten, cause she was amazing in “Leave no trace”.
I think Roma might only come to Netflix mid-December. But if you can, do try catching it in the theatre (news say Netflix will do an uncharacteristically serious cinema run for this)
Yeah thanks, if it´s in a theatre in my hometown, I´ll catch it there. I´m pretty sure these amazing b/w-images will show of best on the big screen!
Our independent theatre already said they’ll be playing it starting December 14th so I’m thrilled about it.
Yes, by all means try to catch ROMA on the big screen. The B&W compositions are stately and imposing, yet can turn suddenly, thunderously conflicted — all in shifting, unpredictable patterns as the story moves along. Only the big screen can properly convey Cuaron’s understated command. For instance, there’s a scene toward the end — no spoiler — involving water, that put my heart in my mouth in terms of both the story and the unforced movie-making skill.
ROMA and Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie’s performance in Leave No Trace are two of my favourite cinematic experiences of 2018 thus far.