In my last Predictions Friday column I did not include other names in play for Best Supporting Actor, but stuck to just the five I think have the best shot right now. That doesn’t mean they’ll stay the same five. After all, not all of the movies have been seen. Vice hasn’t been seen. The Mule hasn’t been seen. We are at the “nobody knows anything” phase of the Oscar race. No matter how confident pundits are about this race, I can promise you they’re mostly bullshitting. Sure, they might get lucky and guess right, but it’s a guess. All we really know for sure are these things:
- Green Book won the Audience Award in Toronto
- Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director in Venice
- First Reformed leads the Gothams
- Black Panther made history by earning $700 million with a black cast, black filmmakers.
- There are hundreds of new members of the Academy who might be unpredictable.
- There is angst about the lack of popular films honored at the Oscars.
- There are an unprecedented number of films directed by black directors, with all black casts heading into the race.
- There is some cause in the country for optimism after the midterm elections
- America has never been more divided. That mean less politics at the Oscars = higher ratings.
- There are as yet no clear frontrunners in November.
We know these things for sure. Almost everything else is wishful thinking at this stage. It’s advocacy by people who are emotionally connected or involved with top contenders. It’s publicists hired to make sure their clients name appears in columns like this. If you leave the name off, you will hear from them. They’ll write you and ask you why they’re not included. Sometimes they’ll ask you to include them. Their job is to make sure the names are there so that even if they don’t get a nomination, at least it shows that they did their job.
As a result, there can be a muddying of predictions at times. As someone who predicts the Oscars you have to try your best to do the best you can. What I see is a lot of wishful thinking right now — so much so that it’s really really hard to tell what is actually going on. We won’t be able to know, in fact, until the nominations and precursor awards come down. You have hardcore Black Panther advocates like Kyle Buchanan at the New York Times. You have First Man advocates like me. You have people who love Olivia Colman and want her to win. You have Gaga fans pushing A Star is Born. The truth is no one knows right now how this year is going to go because there are so many unanswered questions.
Often the answer given is “the new members will vote for such and such.” Well yeah, maybe but maybe not. Superhero movie? Foreign language film in black and white? Remake? Not woke enough movie about white people? So many questions, so few answers.
I thought it might be worth taking a second look at Best Supporting Actor, since a few people wondered why I didn’t include so and so from such and such. The big question is Michael B. Jordan from Black Panther. Then there is Daniel Kaluuya from Widows. There is potentially Sam Rockwell from Vice. And Bradley Cooper from The Mule. I did not include any of these names because honestly the category is so wide open there is just no focal point beyond the frontrunner Mahershala Ali who should easily walk away with his second Oscar in as many years for his astonishing work in Green Book.
We have our frontrunner, but who might give Ali some competition? I think it’s going to depend on which films are headed for the Best Picture race. Is Widows? If so, is Viola Davis the only nominee? Black Panther remains a tough one for me — my experience writing about the Oscars tells me that superhero roles are not supported in terms of acting awards. Health Ledger is the one exception and since he died that year and The Dark Knight caused such a massive shift in how the awards are decided it’s tough to use that as the standard. Is Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther as good as Health Ledger in The Dark Knight? He might be. There are so many good performances in Black Panther — your first early clue will be the SAG nominations. Can it get an ensemble nod? Can any of the actors break through and get noticed for their work? If so, that would tell me that whatever biases voters have about superhero genre movies will not apply to Black Panther.
There is so much desire to see Black Panther get recognition in top categories that many are predicting it across the board.
Best Supporting Actor might be these five — might:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
So, if you’re going to add anyone — whether it’s Michael B. Jordan or Sam Rockwell or Bradley Cooper or Daniel Kaluuya — which of the original five gets the boot? Tough, right? When it comes down to five names it’s tough. Maybe Adam Driver? He’s fantastic but maybe they won’t like the movie as much. Do people think the new members will be more friendly towards Black Panther and Widows than BlackKklansman? I don’t know. Richard E. Grant. Chalamet, and Sam Elliot, though) — can’t see them being dumped.
So you tell me, Oscar watchers. Which of these five isn’t going to make it. Take our poll.
I think there are gonna be some shocks in this category. Honestly, I think only Ali is the only lock at this point. I’m starting to think DK for Widows may make the final cut actually. I could see the final five being something a bit shocking like:
Ali
Elliot
Rockwell
Kaluuya
Crowe
I can’t see how Widows pulls nominations for Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing and pulls off a surprise Supporting Actor nod and doesn’t get in for BP (and I don’t think it will, mostly because I’m not sure what it knocks out).
If they really like The Favourite, Nicholas Hoult could get pulled in too. Or depending on how the campaign goes, Kidman and Crowe could come as a pair for Boy Erased. I’m not sure if Can You Ever Forgive Me is this year’s Battle of The Sexes or if BlackkKlansman hype is just internet talk and not Academy love.
I don’t see Driver and Elliot getting nominations. I am praying that Russell Crowe sneaks in there for Boy Erased.
I wish that people would remember Hugh Grants great performance in Paddington 2. But, it seems that the best reviewed film of the year will go home with no nominations at all. Shame.
I totally agree that this year’s crop of SA noms is very blah. This category should be filled with the likes of Simon Russell Beale from Death of Stalin, Russell Hornsby for Hate U Give, Jasper Paakonen (the racist from Blackkklansman, who by the way is FINNISH!!!!) and the Grants, Richard and Hugh (Paddington)
There is absolutely no way that ASIB is going to get 3 acting awards so to have Sam Elliot that high up on the list is a head-scratcher. I love Sam Elliot. I just don’t see it. While I love Mahershala Ali, I’d love to see Chalamet FTW. Still think Ali, Chalamet, Elliot, Richard E Grant (who I’ve adored since Pret a Porter) and a player to be named later as the nominated slot.
Of the five -and I think these five could well be the choices- I say Driver would miss out.
Since this category is so “weak” I’d like to think that Sam Rockwell just needs to do the bare minimum and he gets in over Jordan. I mean i really don’t see Jordan being a contender at well. In any other year elliot and driver..would be a 5th slot hanging on by a thread.. I’m just not feeling this category this year smh….I also think since its so weak someone from hate u give/widows/beale street has a fair shot too right? There’s gotta be someone in that ensemble that kills it.
Probably Kaluuya from Widows (if anyone other than Davis and Debicki). Not sure I see any serious Supporting Actor possibilities in If Beale Street Could Talk (I’m feeling less and less certain about its Oscar chances). The Hate U Give just needs to stay in the conversation and make an impact to give anyone a shot.
The Vice ensemble is the most likely to shake up the acting races.
I don’t really see Driver or Jordan getting in. I really wish Josh Hamilton was in the conversation more for Supporting Actor for Eighth Grade. Such a heartfelt performance. The scene with his daughter at the backyard fire was perfection.
Cuarón didn’t win Best Director in Venice. Audiard did. Not that it matters for a post about the Best Supporting Actor race lol, but since you mention it…
No Lucas Hedges for Ben is Back? I too think he’s lead, but with Boy Erased, he may go supporting here. Julia’s and Lucas’s mother/son dynamic was a marvelous duo!!
It’s baffling (and disturbing) that awardsdaily omitted Lucas Hedges from the list.
In order of likelihood I see it going: Ali, Grant, Elliot, Chalamet, Kaluuya. Then we have Driver and Hoult fighting it out for that 6th spot. Jordan and Rockwell are likely the tier after that if I’d have to guess. Unfortunately I don’t think too many others are really in the conversation at this point despite great turns from Alex Wollf, Josh Hamilton, Alessandro Nivola and Brian Tyree Henry.
My current top 10:
1. Simon Russell Beale, The Death of Stalin (brilliant, but is he even eligible?)
2. Rafael Casal, Blindspotting (great performance that’ll be overlooked from a film that’ll be overlooked)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Wife (category fraud but I’m not really complaining)
4. Alex Wolff, Hereditary (if Collette gets nominated, there’s no excuse for not nominating him)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Wildlife
6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (Gyllenhaal and Chalamet are neck-and-neck; I give the edge to the film I like much more)
7. Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade (a lovely take on a stock character)
8. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (a very enjoyable performance with poignant trimmings, if not quite awards-caliber)
9. Alessandro Nivola, Disobedience (if the film were better he might rank even higher)
10. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (love the film and performance, but I’ll admit the nomination would absolutely be the reward)
For what it’s worth, here’s how I rank some of the other major contenders:
– Christian Slater (16th)
– Adam Driver (17th)
– Russell Hornsby (21st)
– Harry Belafonte (31st)
– Sam Elliott (59th – if he gets nominated he’d be the weakest nominee since Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight)
“Sam Elliott (59th – if he gets nominated he’d be the weakest nominee since Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight)”
By your personal opinion or some objective criteria? Sam Elliott has three intensely emotional, punch through scenes in his performance like he hasn’t delivered in a movie over the last five decades. You’re not paying attention.
What is this obsession that some people here seem to have about objective criteria for quality? Jamie clearly wrote: “Here’s how I rank”.
And what are these objective criteria of greatness anyway? The way you express your point, you make it seem like anyone who doesn’t love the performance “isn’t paying attention” rather than just not reacting to it. Can we please stop these idiotic “objective measures” that stopped mattering 50 years ago
I would place it far lower than 59. I paid a huge amount of attention to it. But you will continue to aggressively attack anyone that doesn’t completely agree with you. It will, obviously, never end.
Personal opinion. I paid attention. It’s not that he does a deficient job (whereas I think Ruffalo did), but he just did not make a strong impression on me besides being who he is. Honestly, I think Andrew Dice Clay gave the more memorable performance.
it’s an aberration how The Death of Stalin is not getting any traction. A total masterpiece of satire. Maybe critics awards are coming to the rescue, but I doubt it.
I just hope it can get nominated for the Golden Globes.
I don’t love it like I loved In the Loop, but purely in terms of acting it’s one of the year’s outstanding films.
Year is nearly over and I’ve yet to see a better performance than Simon Russell Beale’s in Death of Stalin.
I think Carey Mulligan in Wildlife JUST edges him out. And Ethan Hawke is right there.
I totally agree about Beale. MVP of Stalin. He should be in the conversation.
I’d be fine with them renaming Best Supporting Actor awards as Simon Russell Beale awards. He typically epitomises excellence in this regard.
Let’s stop making Michael B. Jordan happen, he is not going to happen. We can be inclusive and diverse in our choices without pushing a performance who is not in the caliber of the rest just because he’s an actor of color.
For now:
Ali
Chalamet
Grant
Crowe
Miranda (IF his role in Mary Poppins Returns has some meat)
I have almost the same 5, I think:
Chalamet
Crowe
Miranda or Driver
Ali
Elliot
1. Mahershala Ali
2. Timothee Chalamet
3. Richard E. Grant
4. Sam Elliot
5. Adam Driver
Read my comment again. I said nothing about Chalemet’s acting. I said I didn’t get the “LOVE”, the whole teen idol thing. So there.
Get used to it girl, here’s here to stay.
Good, I’m glad he’s going to have a long career. I just said I didn’t get it and you keep twisting it into something else. I’m sure there are a lot of actors out there that you “don’t get”..
Maureen Dowd has seen VICE: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/dick-cheney-donald-trump-vice-movie.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
I could see an Oscar split where Amy Adams finally wins (Supporting); Sam Rockwell becomes the second back-to-back Supporting Actor winner, and Orig. Screenplay is a coin flip between VICE and THE FAVORITE. While Actress is a three-way scramble (Close/Colman/Gaga) and nothing takes Actor away from Cooper, I would see BLACKKKLANSMAN taking Picture-Director-Adapt. Screenplay, in a political year similar to the “Vietnam year” of exactly 40 years ago.
welcome to the very exclusive “BKKKM” is going to sweep Pic-Dire-Adapted-Editing club. People is forgetting the names that are going to back this one at parties and campaigning: Denzel and Oprah, most likely.
Chalamet’s brilliant in ”Beautiful Boy,” and it’s proof he’s no one-hit wonder. But the Academy has such an age bias against young men. You have to go back to 1980 for Timothy Hutton (”Ordinary People”); he was 20 when he won. Chalamet is now 22. … Girls (18 and younger), like Tatum O’Neal, Anna Paquin and Patty Duke, have WON Supporting. But no boy (18 and younger) has ever won Supporting.
Richard E. Grant is great in ”Can You Ever Forgive Me?” If he gets some critics’ prizes, that’ll help his odds. How the Gothams nominated him and NOT Melissa McCarthy, who’s no less amazing, is crazy.
The Gothams nominated actors not on top of pundits list. McCarthy is buy Grant isn’t. They are pushing him because he is less likely than McCarthy.
For the life of me, I don’t understand why you’re sleeping on Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give. Given not just the subject matter, but the quality and critical response of the film, I would have guessed that you’d be all over it. Hornsby is the movie’s best shot at a nomination (along with possibly A. Screenplay, I guess) and there are several pundits predicting him over at Gold Derby. The fact that he isn’t on your poll, but Jake Gyllenhaal, Armie Hammer, and Oscar Isaac are is super confusing.
Side note: I’d love to beat the drum for Russell Crowe to sneak in for his best work in ages (and MVP of the film IMHO).
Because the movie is firmly planted in “young adult” land.
I really hope something happens to shake up this category because it’s super boring to me right now. There are great performances outside the main BP contenders, but only Chalamet seems to be in the conversation from that lot. For me, Dominic West is an easy nominee here, giving perhaps his best work yet in Colette. Josh Hamilton is astounding in that fireside scene in Eighth Grade. Alex Wolff should also be in conversation for Hereditary.
Alex Wolff!! Glad I’m not the only one.
Astounding? He was fine in the role and that scene is good, yes, but “astounding?”
Yes, astounding. Funny thing, opinions differ from person to person.
I think it would be hilarious if Cooper won supporting as well. I want him to win 4-5 Oscars just to see what that would look like…even though He and the Oscars as a whole would be shamed for it until the end of days.
I want him to win zero.
That’s not nice.
It’s my truth.
One’s enough.
That’s most likely all he’ll get.
Pardon my french, but what exactly did Adam Driver do in that movie? If anyone should be nommed from that movie it’s the skinny racist. Driver literally was Kylo Ren with a worse outfit.
I don’t know. Supporting Actor is usually my favorite and most crowded category but I think Chalamet is the one I’d give it to right now. I haven’t seen much of course but he was great and he had the near miss last year.
Elliott is the same as Driver. Completey regular.
Yeah, from memory, I found Driver to be solid, but don’t remember any particular “moment” that pops-out as Supporting Actor nominee-worthy.
I have to agree. Kylo Ren has really soured me on Adam Driver.
Why? Driver is brilliant as Kylo Ren.
Agreed, Driver is basically doing the base-level Adam Driver performance in that. I could maybe see a world where Topher Grace was nominated for that, but I don’t know about the optics of that.
Timothée Chalamet delivered the best performance in supporting by far.
Probably not. However, I think he can win it if they don’t want award Ali a second Oscar.
If Close does indeed become the front runner, Pryce could be nominated too like Maggie Gyllenhaal, Ethan Hawke and Sally Hawkins. I think Ali is the front runner and will be just like Christoph Waltz winning two Oscars very close to each other.
Like Best Actress n Supp Actress race, the battle for the 5th slot is pretty competitive! Sandler, Jordan, Rockwell n Kaluuya. Who among them gets in depends v much on the best pic race n whether their film will get nom in the final 9.
I tink Pryce, Hoult (The Favourite) n Nivola still hav a good chance at the Bafta n Indie Spirits award.
Nine Under The Radar Contenders Deserving To Be At Least in the Conversation
Hugh Grant (Career-best work in the best-reviewed film of the year)
Alessandro Nivola (Excellent performance opposite the Rachels in Disobedience)
Russell Hornsby (Powerful work in The Hate U Give)
Ethan Hawke (Effortlessly charming and charismatic af in Juliet, Naked)
Dominic West (The outrageous villain you love to hate and hate to love)
Rupert Friend (Hilarious in both The Death of Stalin AND A Simple Favor)
Fionn Whitehead (Too bad The Children Act didn’t get a shot because he and Thompson were aces)
Daniel Kaluuya (That was some Barden / NCFOM kind of memorable villain shit right there)
John Krasinski (So he was clearly lead and placed in supporting, nonetheless, VERY strong turn)
Yes. Good list. Also, I think Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) is being a bit forgotten.
Good catch I keep forgetting to list him because his film was so much about the central trio but Hoult was indeed VERY good in there. Feinberg keeps predicting him in the top5 so I guess the Academy voters he talked to, feel the same.
Friend was awesome.
Also, Friend is fantastic in “At Eternity’s Gate”.
If we’re talking nominations from Black Panther, I’d much rather see Letitia Wright and/or Danai Gurira in supporting actress than Jordan in supporting actor. Hell, if we’re talking nominations from comic book movies in general, I’d actually take Josh Brolin’s mo-cap spectacular from Infinity War over Jordan in supporting actor.
It’s weird that we’re already well into November and so many categories still seem completely wide open. Regina King is probably the only one in the big six categories that looks like a semi-solid favorite at this point. Ali is looking good, though I wonder if the fact that he won just two years ago will have voters looking in another direction.
When dealing with such a wide-open race, one of the more logical ways to determine a favorite is to pick out the person who you’d be most shocked to see omitted on nomination day. Ali is my supporting actor favorite by this strategy, since he’s the only one at this point whose sub would be a major surprise. For everyone else, I can make a case for why a snub wouldn’t be a total shocker — role is too small (Elliott), movie isn’t getting a ton of overall acclaim (Grant, Chalamet), movie is directed by Spike Lee and thus could be ignored by the Academy altogether (Driver).
Danai Gurira was my MVP of Black Panther. Every second she’s onscreen she’s hypnotic, fierce, yet also shows vulnerability.
My take is Mahershala Ali, Sam Elliot, and Richard E. Grant are in the strongest position – Ali has the most sizeable role and so might win, whereas Grant feels comparable to Dafoe last year (well-liked movie, may lead critics prizes, but could wind up sole-representation for film at Oscars).
After that I think there’s bound to be a few surprises. Adam Driver feels like a smart bet with performer+film+role combination, and a spot for a late breaker like Armie Hammer, Sam Rockwell/Steve Carell or someone. Timothee Chalamet could get in, but I think youth bias + general disconnect with the film could make him a surprise snub once critics prizes start rolling out. Daniel Kaluuya still stands a strong chance, but it’s hard to predict him when his role is so small in the movie (he doesn’t even really qualify as the primary antagonist, and all of his scenes turn out the same way). Michael B. Jordan feels like Javier Bardem in Skyfall, and will easily get a BFCA nom and maybe a SAG nom, but I think that’s where it ends. Nicholas Hoult is a possibility, especially if he lands at Globes (more favourable to younger nominees), and BAFTA (British edge), and if they go all in on The Favourite, which they well might. Last person I see with a shot is Robert Forster for What They Had, but that’s only if he lands one of those Daniel Bruhl/Hong Chau/Michael Shannon style noms at SAG or Globes and rides it to a nom.
My five:
– Mahershala Ali- Green Book
– Sam Elliot- A Star is Born
– Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?
– Adam Driver- BlacKkKlansman
– Armie Hammer- On the Basis of Sex
Alts: Timothee Chalamet, Nicholas Hoult, Daniel Kaluuya.
For contenders who are deserving but not in the conversation, I’d throw out there Steven Yeun for Burning, Arieh Worthalter for Girl, Colman Domingo for If Beale Street Could Talk, and Michael Shannon for What They Had, along with other undervalued contenders like Hugh Grant, Russell Hornsby, and Brian Tyree Henry.
I think as of today, the top 5 in this category (based on the films released so far) are Ali, Grant, Chalamet, Elliott & Driver. Of course, all this could change as more films get released. Also, can I just say that I really don’t understand all this hate (maybe hate is a rather strong word, so let’s just say dislike) for Chalamet post CMBYN. He’s 22, soon to be 23, & certainly has a long way to go & a lot to prove, but this continuous attempt to put him down because of his young age or inexperience or maybe popularity (I don’t exactly know what it is) is really quite unfair. He was good, even great, in CMBYN & though BB wasn’t that good a film, his performance, along with that of Carell, Amy & especially Maura was great.
Guys- any TV recs as of late? Nothing good this year besides Atlanta?! Shiiiiit, I’d take The Crown S3 right about now.
It’s a few months old but if you haven’t seen Wild Wild Country I would highly recommend it.
It’s been on my queue all year. Need to catch up.
Bodyguard / Killing Eve were the ones that got me under their spell most recently. Will probably start catching up with The Little Drummer Girl this week, as well.
I’ll give Drummer Girl a go after I read the book.
New:
Bodyguard
Homecoming
The Little Drummer Girl
Not new:
Marcella
Collateral
Doctor Foster
2 episodes into Homecoming. I’m digging it!
Homecoming is good. The Americans is also very good. Intrigued about The Little Drummer Girl.
Update – On episode 5 or 6 (can’t recall): Really liking this show. Highlight for me is Shea Whigham and the way his scenes are so carefully constructed.
Why don’t you read a book or go play outside Billy,
Instead of spending all your time in front of the telly?
Talking about books I take a side-kick and recommend to anyone who might be interested the autobiographical series “My struggle” by Karl Ove Knausgard, a Norwegian novelist. That´s what I´m into at the moment, at least when I´m not on my way to the theatre like this sunny sunday afternoon to finally see “First Man”. 😉
Thank you for your recommendation!
‘First Man’ is my #1 film of the year so far. Not necessarily the most enjoyable one, but quite worthy of the momentous achievement it attempts to chronicle.
I liked it much better than “Apollo 13” because of the sober, almost austere way the story is told. No false patriotism or pathos, just an intimate portrait of a troubled man and his family. Worked totally fine for me. Some thrilling, superb shot and edited space scenes on top. Claire Foy will surely get a Best Actress nomination.
Right on! Or: Read on! Knausgaard is unquestionably one of the great novelists of our time. I’ve read the first 5 volumes of “My Struggle” and am now reading volume 6, the final volume. Possessing a dazzling consciousness, K is a breathtakingly bold writer/thinker. And, yes, you need to read all 6 volumes, that is, all 3,600 pages, because “My Struggle” is ONE book. Not 6 books. ONE book. One truly great novel. (And for my break from reading I’m off to see “Bohemian Rhapsody” this afternoon; dying to learn what the raves for Malek are all about.)
Hi thanks, and of course I will read all 6 volumes. I´m currently at number 2 and totally thrilled. Besides, funny coincidence that happened at the “First Man”-screening: In the moment of silence before Armstrong put his feet on the moon (is that a SPOILER? 😉 the sound of “Another ones bites the dust” came from the next cinema hall!
I have a book but I don’t read it because I don’t want my chair to get wobbly.
I do lol I’ve literally only watched one(1) show all year before asking this question.
I predict a couple of surprise nominees, who “coat-tail” their way into the race off a Lead a la Maggie Gylenhaal in Crazy Heart (and that’s not a knock to the performances).
Pryce/Hoult
I think Michael B. Jordan was very good and could get in if they end up liking Black Panther, but any paragraph including both him and Heath Ledger will only hurt him.
The comparison is crazy. Truth be told I think what makes that character in Black Panther interesting has more to do with the writing that with Michael B Jordan, but the field seems kind of weak in this category so he might have a chance.
I have not seen any of those films (well, I did see one of them but I wish I had not) so I voted based on name recognition and raw sexual attraction. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Slut! lol
That’s how I make most of my decisions.
May I suggest another Grant: https://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2018/01/16/hugh/16-paddington-5.w710.h473.2x.jpg
I think people in the industry don’t like him. I’ve heard stories of him being sort of a diva/asshole on set. If he was giving super baity performances he could overcome that but he generally doesn’t and having a role in Paddington 2 certainly isn’t overcoming it.
The guy has 4 Golden Globe nominations (1 win), 3 Bafta nominations (1 win) and 2 SAG nominations (1 ensemble, 1 individual) so rumours or not, the industry seems to like him just fine.
Also, don’t knock Paddington 2, it will go down in history as the best-reviewed film of 2018. Just saying.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90e80fe611423deabee81e00f97ca424007b6c4607ae80a4346f0b04e6f05c62.jpg
The Golden Globes are voted on by the press, not the industry (and they have the drama comedy split), BAFTA has a smaller pool of choices. SAG is a bit more significant, but still, one individual nomination from a career that long does say something.
How does Bafta have a smaller pool of choices ? 99% of the contenders eligible for the Oscars tend to be eligible for the Baftas, too ? There are usually one or two movie tops that doesn’t qualify for latter.
This one’s pretty close to claiming that title and is also being completely ignored: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/leave_no_trace/
But one could spin it like this: if those rumors are true, then this movie is a self-parody, considering that Grant’s character in the movie is an actor who can no longer get parts because he’s such a diva/asshole on set
Maybe, truth be told I haven’t seen the movie. I doubt it’s going to be at the top of anyone’s screener pile.
Also, I’m not saying that he WILL get nominated, just that I want people to start talking about the performance so that he might be at least be in the far corner of the playing field
Well, there must be some reason why AMPAS has never bitten yet.
Sometimes it just doesn’t happen. The likes of Scarlett Johansson, Cameron Diaz, James McAvoy, Emily Blunt, Idris Elba, Bill Nighy, Ewan McGregor have all had lots of precursor love, zero diva rumours actually all rather beloved in the industry, and still no Oscar love.
Yes, yes, yes please!
I would also suggest ‘The Death of Stalin’, which features enough worthy performances to fill the whole category.
Yes! Steve Buscemi and Jeffrey Tambor were so great in it.
I think Simon Russell Beale stole the film. He won a British film award for his performance too.
These two could even be considered leads I guess, and there would still be a large pool of supporting actors to choose from. Andrea Riseborough was also commendable as Stalin’s daughter and would be a worthy Supporting Actress nominee.
Hugh Grant really should be an Oscar nominee by now. Better late than never, Academy, better late than never and for the record, he has never been better than in Paddington 2.
God I would love it if he was nominated.
Hugh Grant is not an elite actor.
What, he has never been nominated? not even for “Four Weddings And A Funeral”?
So, about Paddington 2: can I see this straight away or do I need to watch Paddington 1 first?
You do not. All you need to know is thatPaddington is from darkest Peru (where his aunt lives), he’s staying with the Browns (the father’s an insurance guy, the mother illustrate’s children’s books) and he loves marmelade sandwiches (because an explorer who taught his aunt and uncle good manners happened to have marmelade with him).
The first one’s pretty good as well, though, even if it’s a bit more focused on the type of humor that kids’ movies so often have
As Ferdinand said you do not. But I should watch it anyway because it is great (not quite as great as the sequel but still really great).
I have to say I am not as big a fan of the film as others (I thought it was quite good and improvement on the first one but didn’t make me love it), but Grant was the definitely the best thing it. His performance was the tops. I hadn’t even realised it was him until after awhile. That’s how good he was. What happened his persona and the stuttering? It was less obvious if not there at all. A nomination would deserved, I think. BAFTA will probably give him one but the Academy? I don’t know.
I think this category is a shit show, lol.
Seriously, I can’t find a consensus. Most unpredictable acting race that I can see.
-Ali, sure.
-Elliott, seems like he’ll be a thing despite such a small running time.
-E. Grant, just saw the film, good as he is, I could see him missing.
-Chalamet, either he’ll contend for the win or miss altogether.
-Pryce, Glenn Close brings many Supporting actors with her for her own noms. He’s never been nominated before, either.
-Jordan, can he reallllly break through for a move like Black Panther?
-Driver, solid as he was in Blackkklansman, he’s never struck with AMPAS yet.
-Kaluuya, will Widows be more than a box office play?
-Rockwell/Carell, can they ride a late wave?
-Crowe, I hear he’s at his strongest here since his hey day, and AMPAS may bite.
I really think only Ali is a FOR SURE nom bet. I really do.
“Crowe, I hear he’s at his strongest here”
He is. I think he gives a superb performance in Boy Erased. I would vote for either him or Chalamet for the win.
Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me? and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are not going to be Oscar nominees. Both the film and the actors aren’t going to be nominated. That is my perception, I might be wrong, I am positive they will get some recognition from the critics, not from the industry.
Having just seen it, I can see what you mean.
I continue to stick with Ali, Chalamet, Grant, and Elliott, with the fifth spot up for grabs, although there are arguments against the latter three: Chalamet is too young and the film’s reception is pretty mixed, though he has the advantage of an afterglow nomination; Grant’s film isn’t expected to make waves outside of acting/writing (even McCarthy seems vulnerable to most); Elliott doesn’t have enough screen time (especially compared to “co-lead” performances by Ali, Chalamet, and Grant, among others) and may be harmed by A Star Is Born backlash, although it’s a good chance to reward a veteran.
On a separate note, everyone seems to be settled on ROMA, First Man, A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, and The Favourite as the likely nominees for Best Cinematography, but the only time since 2000 that the line-up featured only BP nominees was in 2010, and it’s pretty common for there to be at least two nominee films not in BP. Potential implications? One of those five doesn’t make BP (which seems unlikely) or another film sneaks into Cinematography (like Cold War, which appears to be the only serious contender not expected to land a BP nod).
Predictions for this category
Ali
Elliott
Grant
Chalamet
Driver
I just don’t get the Chalamet love, but then I’m not 19.
Same. And I didn’t like him or that movie all that much. I think he misses.
Agreed.
The movie hasn’t opened yet in my country, but I have read the reviews. All I know is that while the movie didn’t get perfect reviews, the critics were unanimous that his performance was masterful. The two must be judged separately, especially since this is the supporting category.
Chalamet overacted in Beautiful
Boy. So he will get nominated. And he is dreamy.
You’re known to be a Gary Oldman fan, so I’m sorry, I will trust the unanimous opinion of film critics over yours. I really hope you aren’t British though, because I am too, and I found the jingoism displayed in Darkest Hour excruciating.
“Overacted”? You mean he should have played a lying, thieving, strung-out drug addict more, have I got this right, calmly? Far out, man.
Overacted did he? He should have been more subtle when he was strung out with a needle in his arm on a filthy public bathroom floor? He absolutely did not “overact” and if you paid attention you’d have noticed the immense subtlety in some of the family interactions he had with the children and his father. I’m not a big fan of the movie itself but the performance, undoubtedly.
He was indeed very good but boy did the film have issues and massive miscalculations.
Ok. Thank you. I do trust your opinion.
For what it’s worth, the performances are all strong, it’s just certain aspects – music in particular – that frustrated me A LOT while watching it.
Yeah, I read that “Sunrise, Sunset” was one of the song choices. It makes me cringe just thinking about it. 🙂
And there were certain scenes where the score was just such a horrendous fit that I could not believe my ears that they actually went in that direction anyway. I’m not spoiling anything with revealing there is a scene when the father is frantically looking for his son, and the score is something I would expect from CSI. A hard rock song and some operatic stuff was used, as well, I didn’t get how they were considered good fits, either. Oh, well, for the record I’ve only seen it once, maybe on a repeat viewing under different circumstances (I may have been sleep-deprived and irritated) I could just embrace the winning aspects like the acting for example.
You missed the whole point the hard rock was because that’s what they listened to in better times when he was a BEAUTIFUL BOY. Huh-duh.
I got that parallel but I just wish they left that scene without music then there wouldn’t have been any crude distraction from the other-wise top notch acting that was going on in those few minutes by the lead duo.
OMG that was great in the movie. Jiminy Christmas, don’t go by other people. Watch it and then hate it for yourself.
I’m so with you on this. Even some critics who pretty much liked the movie dumped on the choice of “Sunrise/Sunset”. It was an absolutely perfect choice for the movie and the moment. And the Perry Como version is the best one out there outside of the “Fiddler” album itself. “Hip” people can’t ever admit to liking Como, but that smoothie Perry had his moments. This was one.
The movie was great and so were he and Carrell.
He was good in Call Me By Your Name especially the end credit scene. But the movie itself was overrated and seriously needed editing. Also Lead Actor has been pretty weak for years now.
People who had read the book first said the film was far too short and the relationship happened too quickly. You say the opposite. I think that means the length was perfect, and it didn’t need any editing. It won both the Scripter and the Adapted Screenplay Oscar in a landslide, so I doubt their adaptation could have been improved.
I meant scenes went on too long.
They did not. All the scenes were perfectly calibrated, layered and essential. If you were a viewer who wasn’t really into the film, obviously you would think they went on too long. It wasn’t made for you then.
I found the pacing to be one of the strongest assets of the film. It mirrored a young person’s summer holiday: a languid pace in a paradise that may last forever, but then it rapidly and jarringly draws to an end. Time was the main villain of this story, and the pacing was the only way we could appreciate it.
Two of the best paragraphs I’ve read about this movie, and I’ve read a lot about this movie.
Also for a gay movie it was pretty tame I’ve seen network tv with more graphic gay sex scenes. Of course if their was graphic sex scenes it would not have gotten Oscars attention. They should have also gotten someone to play the Hammer part he is way too old looking compared to Chalament who is too young looking for his age.
^ 100%.
well, I’m not 177 but I can appreciate Glenn Close.
Thank you for reminding us again of the dreadful ageism that exists in the Academy, both towards older women (which they are now correcting) and towards younger men (which they have yet to rectify).
Timothée is dreamy and cute.
And he’s a better actor than Gary Oldman, who couldn’t have played any of his roles at any age… while countless actors have put on makeup and played Churchill.
Oh no! This is sadly one of those comments that will bring shame to whoever wrote it. It’s like you’ve never even seen Oldman.
Yes, that’s clear.
Haha, your claws are so sharp. I hope I never get on the wrong side of you.
James that’ll never happen! No worries. 🙂
How old are you, BOBBY?
I’m guessing your 19. Enjoy.
And it’s “you’re”, not “your”. Most 19-year-olds would know the difference.
Really. You obviously havn’t been on Instagram lately.
Don’t be ridiculous. One thing I know about Bobby Peru is that he is a lecturer, so he can’t be 19. Not a single one of the critics who raved unanimously about his performance here and in previous films was 19, or anywhere close to 19.
He’s the top performers here. I’m 47
48. And I know good, quality performances when I see them, without bias. If you can say what you did about Chalamet you obviously have a problem with distinctions between objective evaluation and personal opinion.
Well la-de-freakin’ da! Good for you. You know good quality performances, without bias! Congratulations. Read my initial comment. I said NOTHING about his acting. I said I didn’t get the “LOVE”- I meant the whole “teen-idol” thing that dogs him. Enough of your self-righteous, knee-jerking reactions.
Yet you attack anyone who loves him (and your comment can just as easily be read as meaning: “I don’t get the love for his work, he isn’t that good” as it can be read as what you say you meant) as being young and that as something that defines them to the extent where they can’t recognize something of actual value. More age doesn’t seem to have lessened at your biases, as you attack people who are younger than you as automatically not understanding anything about what is good or “worth the love”.
And as far as your claims about 19-year-olds being hopelessly obsessed with Chalamet as a teen idol, I’m 19 and I don’t know more than a handful of people who probably even know Chalamet (and those people seem to be notably more interested in Call Me by Your Name, and to a certain extent Lady Bird, than him). And personally speaking, I’m not obsessed with him either. I consider him to be an incredibly talented actor who gave one of the three most essential performances of the decade so far in Call Me by Your Name but I frankly don’t care about him (or any other actor for that matter) outside the screen enough to pay any attention to what he does.
I didn’t attack anyone. I was making fun of commenters who jump on their emotional high horses and take things so seriously. I said, “I don’t get the love”. You have your own interpretation of what that meant. Fine. You say you’re not obsessed with him, but you certainly do ramble on about him. You’ve got spirt, Fernando, the greatest attribute a young person can have. Hold on to it as long as you can. Thanks for your comment, and keep going to the movies!
Mentioning age shows your bias. How disgusting .
I’m 44. He was great.
You didn’t like BEAUTIFUL BOY?