The Oscar race for Best Picture, and for a variety of other categories, is, as our friend Jazz Tangcay likes to say “horseshit all over the road.” And indeed, that is exactly what it is. No one knows what’s up because what’s up is down. Some films that did well throughout festival season turned out to be films that ticket-buyers didn’t go see. The buzz and hype and good reviews did nada, zip, niente to attract moviegoers. What did well with audiences were — wait for it — popular movies. Who’da thunk it? So Bohemian Rhapsody, rejected entirely by critics and bloggers, was and remains one of the massive box office hits of the year, driven by that classic soundtrack and a juicy A CinemaScore. It stands alongside A Star is Born as crowdpleaser — both films driven by word of mouth and their very popular stars. Black Panther rounds out the trifecta of popular movies, though you could add Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place if you want.
The traditional Oscar trajectory is that much of a movie’s awards fate is already decided way before it hits theaters. If the movie does well with audiences, all the better. But if it doesn’t do well, awards watchers turn into that auditorium of onlookers that greets Glenn Close at the end of Dangerous Liaisons — looking on in horror. How can this be? How could audiences not show up to excellent films like First Man, Green Book, Widows, Can You Ever Forgive Me? These movies anchored the Oscar race before their disappointing box office sent shockwaves throughout the world of punditry.
Box office will matter or it won’t. I don’t expect anyone thinks Roma is going to earn anywhere near what A Star is Born has earned and yet they will face off for Best Picture. Totally balls out popular – so popular it made it onto John Oliver’s show last night as literally “the movie everyone likes.” How does a thing like that fail? And if it does, what movie is going to take it apart.
Shitstorm Watch 2019 hasn’t gotten anywhere A Star is Born yet, as far as I can see. It has hit Green Book hard. And somehow managed to even hit First Man from the right and from the left both. The right didn’t like that they didn’t plunge the flag into the surface of the moon as the film’s emotional high point. The left didn’t like it that the astronauts and NASA command room were all white — or that it was about white people or that… or that… is anyone even able to keep track anymore?
Remember when The Big Short was somehow written off on Twitter as being a “movie about asshole white guys,” where Spotlight – a movie that was literally 100% a white cast – got a break on that? They Boston Globe reporters were good white people doing good things. And it was a true story. Green Book is a true story but it’s a true story white filmmakers are not allowed to tell (not even if the co-lead is white, the man’s own son is not even allowed to tell a story that happened to his father). White filmmakers are now in a place where they either have to suffer the label of “films about white people only” or else risk something worse, not being able to do justice to the African American experience. They are a target either way, so that now there really is a very distinct dividing line. White people tell white stories. Women tell women stories. African Americans, or black filmmakers, tell African American or black stories. That’s pretty much how the lines are being drawn to be foolproof.
But I am not sure Shitstorm 2019 is over yet. We have to wait to see what films begins to win all of the awards. Roma is probably shitstorm proof. All people of color, focusing on women, Mexican-born director. No problems there. So far A Star is Born has escaped the shitstorms. It is sort of the ideal movie for now because even through it centers on white characters, it is inclusive in its casting, from trans actors to people of color. As long as it doesn’t try to tell their stories and sticks to the white people — seems to be no problem.
I am mostly being wry or arch here. I do know representation matters, and everyone who reads this site knows I’ve always pushed for diversity. I also know that we live in a time when someone can press a button, type a tweet, and ruin a film. I warned you all many months ago that Green Book was probably going to get hit with a Shitstorm. Why, because the white filmmakers tried to tell a story about race and racism. Had the director been black, and the story been exactly the same, would there still be a shitstorm? I don’t know. I just know that perception is everything and perception rules the Oscar race, as it does almost everything else involving human beings.
All of this is to say that, alas, Green Book has to take a step down from the top of the major predictions. First Man drops significantly as well. And so it is back to Roma vs. A Star is Born. But I will also add If Beale Street Could Talk, because the chatter around this movie is hardcore passion. It looks to be absolutely 100% shitstorm proof. People will feel good voting for it, as they will Roma. How does this thing eventually end up? My dudes, I have no clue. I just have to call the race as I see it — and right now I see horseshit all over the road.
Here are the latest Oscar squad predictions.
Mary Poppins is coming to save Oscar season!
Art. I saw green book last week and this movie has great acting but I want to see it again because I think there’s a deeper message about whites and blacks within the story that couldnt grasp my mind The first time. And you are also missing Linda cordenlinni supporting performance. She was amazing in it but ali and mortenson deserve Oscars. It’s going to a big contender especially in the actors branch
How did all of these pundits think that Green Book was a favorite to win BP? I saw the film last night, and it was the most formulaic, tone deaf film I’ve seen all year. The acting was great, but that’s about all it had going for it (and costume design, I guess). There were so many painfully cringe-worthy scenes throughout the film. I felt like I was getting slapped in the face with the textbook from Racism 101. Perhaps the worst parts of the film were the over the top stereotypes of every single character, and the palatable racism portrayed throughout, which makes the narrative easy to digest for the white masses. Why did we need another “white savior” film about racism?
I agree…completely.
Well, Crash won (and most people think similar things about that one), so I don’t know if any of these things are necessarily insurmountable obstacles… 🙂 That said, I also don’t think Green Book will win, and never did. But I don’t think it’s inconceivable, either.
Green Book has a 70% on Metacritic. It’s shocking that pundits didn’t consider the film’s quality before moving it up their list. It won TIFF? So what.
I think it is a bit unfair to say the criticism on Green Book is only because it was made by a white director. The film is tone deaf and offensive. Many other white filmmakers could have made a better film that wouldn’t be as prone to attack. In the film, which is told from Viggo’s perspective…his character essentially learns to be less racist toward one person and to write better love letters. That is it. Meanwhile, the genius that was Dr. Shirley…a gay black man…seems to learn ‘everything’ about life from the racist white guy. It is an imbalanced Hollywood fantasy. So, yes, Farrelly is to blame for portraying a true story through a Hollywood lens that was out of date even if it were made in the 1990s.
I am also disappointed that you portray it just as a race issue. The film’s handling of Dr. Shirley’s gay identity is just as offensive if not more so. The film is one big predictable and generic stereotype. Many a straight filmmaker have made good LGBTQ films. So, sure, some are burning it down because of the director’s identity. I think that unfair. But I do think it is fair to critique it for what it is: a tone deaf film that is nothing but Hollywood cliches.
Nonsense.
Mary Poppins Returns had a great responses at Guild screenings. As I stated before Marshall has an elite team.
Elite team? What was he supposed to do, hire NYU film students? He had an elite team on Nine and everyone yawned. It’s all about the material.
I love Nine. It grew on me. At times it comes as a satire of the art of cinema and filmmaking business. Still lot of things left to be desired in terms of writing and story but dazzling filmmaking nevertheless.
I really like Nine, too; all while knowing it’s flawed as hell. What a cast and what a craft display. Enjoyed quite a few of the songs, too.
It is also about cinematography, editing, production design, sound design.
Yes, and Mary Poppins Returns excels in all those categories.
I’ve seen widows the ending was a conventional heist picture. It’s also a conventional payback thriller. Viola Davis once again plays a twisted up female hero in a game of cat and mouse
Not conventional.
At all
Industry reaction is starting to roll in regarding Mary Poppins Returns. I must tell you, it’s such a burden being right all the time, but someone has to do it.
I share that burden. Marshall hired an elite team.
Wait a second. Green Book opened in only 25 theatres. I saw a screening a few weeks back and the audiences rose to their feet. That didn’t happen when I saw A Star is Born. There is no way that movie is dead. Word of mouth will make it rise. Also not sure how you can judge a movie on a 3 day very limited release. Also according to the Hollywood Reporter, the movie had a “solid” 3 day opening.
Green Book and A Star is Born are completely different types of films. Green Book is a crowdpleaser and cheery film. The story demands audiences applause and enthusiasm. A Star is Born leaves the audience with a heavy heart and internal lingering emotion. My entire sold out theatre sat until the very of the credits, nobody left until 5 minutes after the credits rolled with the audience crying and sniffling. The films are so different it’s apples and oranges really.
That’s why it will win ; everyone in the entertainment industry knows only too well the vulnerability and fleeting nature of fame ..for every star that is born one must surely die ..voters can identify with this , not some obscure 1970s Mexican politics , an 18th C costume drama, or an inverted version of Driving Miss Daisy
Black Panther wiil be & should be THE favorite to win Best Picture when the Oscar nominations are released.
The fact that Mission Impossible: Fallout isn’t a top 10-20 contender for Best Picture is rather embarrassing & very short sighted.
How is Black Panther an original screenplay?
It’s adapted from a comic book character.
It isn’t. It’s expected to be contending in Adapted Screenplay.
It isn’t, I think the site has that wrong.
I am pleasantly surprised by how you fiercely and courageously expose the diversity conundrum facing white directors these days. I would have been worried of writing the same thing out of fear of being labeled a racist, so reading it from someone with impeccable liberal cred is refreshing.
It reminds me of how white actors are now deservedly frowned upon for playing non-white characters, yet non-white actors playing white characters or historical figures is often seen as the epitome of coolness and progress.
I guess this is all part of a natural, temporary reaction to decades of people of color having to endure seeing white people tell their stories, while feeling left out of the film industry, barred from sharing their own experiences and dispossessed of their own cultural heritage.
Let’s hope we can all move on to a world where everyone will have the opportunity to tell the stories they want to tell, the way they want to tell them, without the fear of being unfairly judged for either lack of diversity or cultural appropriation.
Absolutely agreed. And it’s not even only about race: actors are getting trashed for playing gay characters, trans characters, etc. It’s complete bs imo. Filmmakers and actors should NOT be constrained to tell only stories that align with their own experiences. The whole idea of acting is to play someone that is not you. The same goes for filmmaking. I admire Cate Blanchett for speaking up against this, and I would love to see more artists do the same.
I believe the backlash about straight/cis actors playing gay/trans characters is due to the perceived lack of acting opportunities for gay and trans actors, but of course as a principle no one should be banned from playing a part if they can pull it off and do something interesting with it.
I also disagree with the “lack of opportunities” argument: if gay parts were meant to be given to gay actors, that would implicitly mean that gay actors should not be playing straight parts. I don’t agree with that. Sure, giving more opportunities to gay or trans actors is a nice goal: but it should not be tied to the parts they play.
Absolutely, but there was some resentment due to the impression that straight/cis actors were getting all the parts, including the gay/trans ones, and then there was nothing left for gay/trans actors. I have no idea how justified that impression was. It does seem gay/trans actors have become more visible as of late.
“And somehow managed to even hit First Man from the right and from the
left both.”
The main problem facing First Man is that it’s a tremendously dull movie. It’ll be one of the worst Best Picture nominees in recent memory if it makes the cut, and god help us all if it wins
I agree that it’s dull, but no way it’s got the support to win, let alone get nominated.
Completely disagree.
Thoughts on First Man? I was very underwhelmed, but I know some people loved it.
At the same time I can very much understand why others wouldn’t like it. 🙂 It’s easy to not connect with it, clearly. I have that problem with several movies other people love too, obviously.
I obviously loved it. Total and instant masterpiece. Easily my temporary #1 of the year, and may well remain so throughout (I’ve not seen very much yet, but I know how much I tend to like my #1 each year, of course, and, by that measure, First Man is a very likely, though not guaranteed, final #1). I love it almost as much as Arrival. The music especially is some of the best I’ve heard in a movie in a really, really long time. Foy is outstanding. Gosling is great. Love the approach, the story, the cinematography. Really, this is becoming pointless – just name anything about it, and you can be sure I loved it. 🙂 And this is just based on the first watch. It feels like the sort of movie that can go up quite a bit on rewatches, even compared to how highly I rate it right now. I actually liked Arrival less than this the first time I saw it. (I always thought it was outstanding, of course, but it only deeply moved me the second time. First Man, however, hit me hard on the spot. Which, to be honest, is somewhat rare for me these days. Used to happen a lot more often when I was younger.)
I guess I just love (outstandingly well-made) space movies. 🙂 Also, this love for First Man was to be expected – I always tend to love the same movies Sasha loves. (Mostly – there are also exceptions, of course, like The Shape of Water and a few others. But the correlation between our top 10’s is almost always very high.) I don’t remember whether I was aware it was Sasha’s favorite when I saw it. I definitely wasn’t as aware of it as I am now. I’d not been on AD very much yet this Oscar season.
Actually, thinking about it, this is now probably the movie I’ve been the most blown away by after seeing it in theaters. Even more than The Force Awakens. I tend to like movies more after I rewatch them on my laptop, later (like it was with Arrival, Interstellar, Fury Road or, to an extent, even La La Land, etc.) – but not this one.
Couldn’t disagree more. Slow, but focused & I found it incredibly moving. A great approach to a story I didn’t think I needed to hear again.
Superbly said!
I find it interesting that in all the talk about black folk directing black stories you missed out on Black Panther. I still have that as my pick for Best Picture, it just feels like it’ll happen. I’ll likely be wrong, as I usually am, but for now, it makes sense.
So, Green Book didn’t do well at all in its limited release (the studio recently changed its roll-out to limited and not wide).
That said, it’s one weekend. And just a few years ago, Silver Linings Playbook (another movie with an odd title, like Green Book – people not in the know wouldn’t know what the heck it means) opened horribly in limited before it went on to make something like $150 mill thanks to a wider release, increased buzz and lots of nominations.
Green Book is far from dead, yet.
But Silver Linings Playbook that time has the sexual predator behind it. I think that makes a lot of difference. That’s what propelled Lawrence (including her impeccable charisma) to win an undeserved Best Actress. Green Book is far from dead true but word of mouth will be important since it doesn’t have the infamous campaigning of SLP back then.
Attention please:
You are now exactly 1 month away from when Mary Poppins arrives. Y’all best be ready, because she’s gonna kick up a little storm of her own. Consider yourself warned 🙂
Sorry, John Oliver, some of us hate ASIB.
Word of mouth will help Green Book massively. It didn’t have the best limited release but it has A+ Cinemascore. I think it needed to be released later, around Christmas, but maybe Universal feared the competition from Mary Poppins.
Also, is anyone considering predicting Bohemian Rhapsody for above-the-line nominations beyond Malek?
I’m thinking it has really strong chances at Picture, Film Editing, both Sound, Make Up & Hairstyle, Cinematography and Costume… that can make between 1 and 8 noms. Guilds can really support this film. A SAG ensemble nom isn’t out of reach, by the way.
I’m not quite sure on this, but since it’s not reported on cinemascore.com, could it be that the score Sasha mentions as “opening day CinemaScore” is not the same thing (or doesn’t have the same methodology) as the classic CinemaScore?
“If Beale Street Could Talk […] looks to be absolutely 100% shitstorm proof.” Maybe twitter shitstorm proof, but there’s one thing that I think could hurt it. In the Moonlight year, Sasha mentioned several times that one of the reasons Moonlight could land so well with the Academy is that there were no evil/racist white people (or, in fact, any white people) in it. And Beale Street is… not very flattering for white people, while the Academy still has a white majority.
The film is more vocally critical of white racism than Moonlight, but it does also make a point of including some #NotAllWhitePeople scenes like the Italian lady who stands up for Fonny and the scene with the Jewish landlord.
Tbh, those characters felt very much “token nice non-black person” to me.
Excellent article. Thanks, Sasha!
I think the problem with Green Book is not that a white man directed it or that it’s not woke enough. It’s that it’s not even about the title, a green book. It doesn’t accurately explain how vital that book was to African Americans of that time. There wasn’t much care put into what that title would make people expect from the film. That would be careless no matter who directed it.
Yeah, I really think the title of the movie is an early hindrance to general audiences; no matter how important it actually is.
Mortal engines could squeak by if critics like it. The first 25minutes of the film was praised at New York comic con and could be a major threat to black panther
No way.
People are… underestimating Crazy Rich Asians’ chance of entering in a bigger way
Roma is a piece of cinematic art that the critics naturally love ;unfortunately, they have higher tastes than the average voter …I bet there isn’t 1 in 10 voters who are interested in a Spanish language movie set in 1970s Mexico City ..but a movie about the entertainment industry that most of them work in will strike a chord and chime loudly
Yeah but the music industry isn’t the film industry. When we point to examples like The Artist, Argo or Birdman, they’re about actors.
Are there many examples of films about musicians doing well with the Academy, especially in Best Picture? (serious question – I can’t think of any, but haven’t thought all that hard)
Amadeus is the only one that has won best picture (unless you count The Great Ziegfeld and The Broadway Melody, but I’m not sure whether they should as they are about actors and directors, among others, returning it to the point you expressed) and the only other nominees since 1980 have been Ray, Shine, Tender Mercies and Coal Miner’s Daughter, of which only Tender Mercies showed any sign of actually competing for the win because of its screenplay win
This would have been a great year for 10 nominees and 10 slots on the ballot. Is it too late for them to make that call?
You could have
Popular Studio : Black Panther, A Star is Born, Mary Poppins Returns
Passionate Arthouse : Roma, The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk
And then more popular studio Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody
Or critic favourites but less box office : Widows, First Man, Black Klansman, Leave No Trace, Eight Grade, Green Book, Can You Ever Forgive Me, First Reformed
The unknown yet : Vice.
And some of the year’s most popular documentaries : Won’t You By My Neighbour, Free Solo or another foreign film Cold War.
‘”Mission Impossible: Fallout” should be included if we’re truly judging the film quality.
10? This year? You’d be lucky to scrape up no more than 6.
Populist/Critics: Black Panther, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asians
Arthouse: BlackKklansman, Eighth Grade and any 1 of Driving Miss Daisy Redux (Green Book, cause it has that DMD vibe in the tv ads), First Reformed or First Man.
Green Book has done badly at the BO because movie goers are tired of movies about racism in America ; they are tired of the guilt trip ..it’s been covered so many times, in so many ways before …moreover, the voters are tired of it too, and that’s just another reason why ASIB will win BP ..let’s face it , the opposition is weak and fragmented , with no clear 2nd place runner that can give ASIB a run for its money
Well only racists are getting “beat up”.
Really? Tell Heather Heyer’s family that.
I put “beat up” in quote, because a different comment he made.
People are being a little quick to write off that movie’s box office. It’s only opened in 25 theaters and its release was kind of odd. It’s not opening in the arthouses that normally watching for limited releases and I think a lot of people may not have known it opened in their area. I only knew about it because I happened to be looking at the showtimes of the AMC theater is playing in on Sunday.
This.
Brand new account, making variations of this comment all over this site, and also racially charged comments at FrontPage. Be gone.
Oh and who made you the Grand Inquisitor ? self righteous jerk , you make me laugh ..anyone who dares to disagree with your puerile comments should leave ? I pity your poor neighbors
You’re attracting a lot of wrong attention, General Tarleton.
I’m tired of seeing flagged notifications pop up in my email all day for some of your borderline offensive comments
Maybe try to take our friend Pete’s caution seriously. Maybe he’s trying to help you dial it back a bit.
I’ve always suspected that you know shit about racism in America — and if you think a movie like Green Book is a “guilt trip” then I’m sure of if.
You have a distinctive voice.
You remind me a lot of a troll that we had to blacklist in 2014.
He used to say crude things like this:
about the hero Northup in 12 Years a Slave, your doppelganger troll said this:
You know what nickname that troll used here on Sasha’s site?
He called himself “Benny Tarleton.”
Funny coincidence, yeah?
So here’s what we’ll do, Tarleton 2. We’ll assign Benny Tarletons’ disgusting comments to you — as 2 strikes whose stink lingers from 4 years ago.
That means you’ve got one strike left, okay?
(Thanks to our friend Pete Miesel for helping jog my memory )
(And thanks, Benny. I might not have noticed you if you hadn’t insulted our friend.)
Correction. Voters aren’t tired about films that deal with racism. (Ahem, 12 Years, The Help) Conservatives are. I wonder why. However, Academy members are tired about remakes, which is why A Star Is Born has no chance. They’re not going to say our best film has already been done three times.
Copy your comment and then keep it …. the day after the winner is announced just re-read it , then look at yourself in the mirror and try not to laugh
ehem… ASiB has that HUGE handicap, being a 4th version of a version of Pygmalion. Another version won Best Picture already: My Fair Lady. So been there, done that. Not many remakes or sequels have won Best Picture (Ben Hur, Silence of the Lambs, Return of the King, The Godfather Part II) but all of them had a narrative that lead it to overcome the hurdle… ASiB doesn’t.
Don’t forget The Departed, but we all know that won because they needed to give Marty the career achievement award,
Well they could have given him director & given Picture to Little Miss Sunshine (which won the Producers Guild). I think it’s a pretty great BP winner in a year with no clear frontrunner (LMS, The Queen, Babel, Letters From Iwo Jima & The Departed is a pretty solid lineup)
And these remakes and sequels you mentioned are now being considered as greatests of all time one way or another. That cannot be said on A Star is Born. So yes, I really believe the Academy will continue to go for the more “original”, relevant film that speaks of our time today.
Okay, but my Fair Lady doesn’t have the parallel destructive narrative of the male character, so it’s really only half the story – BUT The Artist is a pretty beat-for-beat remake of A Star is Born (other than the ending, obv) which won BP not too long ago.
That also had the added benefit of being about the film industry, not the music industry (like the Barbra Streisand version, which didn’t do too well with the Oscars outside of original song)
I’m looking in the mirror right now and I’m thinking two things:
1) What a handsome SOB I am
2) How smart and prescient I am
Add to that , how positively juvenile , and you’ll be getting close
Green Book has not done poorly at the BO. Sasha misspoke here. It opened in 25 theatres and the Hollywood Reporter called its opening solid. Deadline compared it unfavorably to Hidden Figures which opened in a limited run in 25 theatres, but that is not a fair comparison because everyone is off on Christmas Day when it opened.
You know who likes Green Book? White liberals who want to feel like they’ve done their part for the good of the disenfranchised. It’s a white savior story by an entirely white team, and a number of critics, especially critics of color, have seen through its nonsense. This business is still 90+% white. Let’s not pretend that the white perspective is imperiled because people don’t want to watch a movie that preaches progressivism through a lens of what was progressive maybe forty years ago. Progressive movements progress. We should be past this pablum.
“Progressive movements progress. We should be past this pablum.”
No more WWII movies either. Nazis are so 1939. What’s the point of remembering how we got there and any fights we fought to get to where we are today, right?
That’s why Spike Lee never makes a movie about past struggles and past victories, right? RIGHT?!
Spike would never do a movie about a true story from 40 years ago involving a friendship that helped bridge the racial divide. Would he? WOULD HE?!
Oh, please. You’re deliberately misunderstanding. I didn’t say that historical movies movies shouldn’t be made, but we probably shouldn’t be encouraging white people to make movies about how awesome white people were at supporting oppressed people. We don’t need movies to make white people feel good about the work they did for communities that are still oppressed. And if you want to talk about Spike Lee’s movies and where his current output fits into the current dialogue, I’d refer you to Boots Riley’s thoughtful commentary on Klansman.
Boots Riley can only dream of making a movie like Do The Right Thing (or even BlackKklansman, for that matter).
“shouldn’t be encouraging white people to make movies about how awesome white people were ”
It’s possible that you don’t understand the plot of Green Book?
Tony Lip is a lot of things. “Awesome Civil Rights advocate” isn’t one of those things.
Listen, if you don’t think the movie is an act of white self-congratulations, then we clearly aren’t going to agree. I offer this: https://shadowandact.com/green-book-film-review-white-savior?fbclid=IwAR0x8x42XKuNTcoonqUryfpUOTvl78pMpWpk1Gn7ImQz3ntX8UsX48ypork “We don’t see Dr. Shirley’s story in Green Book without Lip’s lens. Without Lip, there is literally no movie. And perhaps that would’ve been best.”
I think what they’re trying to say is that the kind of overt Jim Crow discrimination that that movie is mainly critical of is not very controversial in mainstream society and that exposing the ills of them does not take a lot of courage. A movie like Beale Street, which is also set in the past but instead looks at the way the criminal justice system is used to damage the black community is more enlightening and relevant.
Bull Nazis are giving cover by the current president.
Green Book actually is an ahistorical movie, not a historical movie.
Thankfully, it’s the same industry that has brought great movies like 12 Years A Slave, Moonlight, If Beale Street Could Talk, Get Out and BlackKklansman. It also brought Detroit, a jewel purposedly taken down because it was directed by a white woman.
I’ve seen green book. I have to say it’s one of the best family friendly dramas I’ve seen in recent memory about racism and the touchback of a white man vs. black man friendship. This movie is the most commercial yet controversial film going into the Oscar race, yet I loved almost every scene from frame to frame
Mark my words: you’re underestimating Bohemian Rhapsody too much. It’s the industry and the artists voting, not the critics. The film is a smash hit with audiences, resonates, the IMDB voters are skyrocketing it, and objectively speaking the guilds can really go behind it (costume, production design, film editing, sound, make up, even VFX for those final 20 minutes alone). We’ve seen worse films and with way more handicaps – Extremely Close, Incredibly Loud – actually reach out for Best Picture. It’s a year that there are some dark horses – 22 July, The Death of Stalin – waiting to see if critics / guilds put them on discussion… when critics awards start rolling we may see everything being shaken…
On Roma: remember it’s in spanish and it’s Netflix. I don’t think they would go that way… critics will, AMPAS probably won’t beyond cinematography and foreign film.
B R is being overshadowed by ASIB ..the race is only big enough for one music biopic
I don’t think so. Recheck 1998… 3 WWII films and 2 Elizabeth films nominated for Best Picture… out of 5 nominees. If it was 5 I would say it’s tight. But I think both are top 7 right now in the race.
Your argument doesn’t hold water. You say that Roma has no chance because it’s Spanish and Netflix, but then say that 22 July is a dark horse because… who knows? But, it’s Norweigan and Netflix.
As for Bohemian Rhapsody, I just don’t see the Academy supporting a Bryan Singer film to Best Picture.
This is such a crazy year. In a matter of a couple of weeks Green Book went from potential Slumdog Millionaire mass-appeal critical and commercial winner to being on box office life support. Can You Forgive Me and BlacKKKlansman get no love from the Independent Spirit and Gotham Awards (and CYFM tanks at the box office upon limited release) and Bohemian Rhapsody turns into a crowd-pleasing hit that everyone is talking about…
To which I say – underestimate Mary Poppins Returns at your own peril… because it’s coming to clean up (and replace) “all the horsesh** all over the road…” (just ask Kris Tapley)
I’m not ruling out green book box office yet, it has only had a very small limited release and that can kinda go either way. Plus it’s not like it was the biggest disappointment in the world, it did okay just not great. It could pick up in wide release – we will see.
“This is such a crazy year” hence my Horseshit all over the road. 😉
I’ll be seeing MPR this weekend.
Mary Poppins Returns’ buzz after the first screenings makes me hopeful for a more interesting Oscar race. Yah know we all looking forward to AD’s post-screening tease. Bring it on!