We’ve heard from the critics, and a blend of critics and industry (a very very small sample size) with the AFI, and now the race is about to get down to it. The Golden Globes, whatever people might think of them, remain the single most important pit stop en route to Oscar. They are important for a few reasons. One is that if they also like what the critics like then you get the kind of blending you need to predict the Oscars. They are the Hollywood Foreign Press, wined and dined by celebrities, given cosy fireside chats with them, given gifts by them, given special access to them – no single group in all of the industry has a more comfortable existence than these folks. On the other hand, that doesn’t mean the studios completely have their way with them. The voters have to like the films being served to them. And if the 90 HFPA members and the critics like the same films? Well, that’s a reliable Venn diagram overlap and that means you are coming closer to seeing what the consensus will be when the industry — thousands and thousands of voters — begin to weigh in.
To know what the Globes are thinking, let’s take a trip over to Gold Derby where Tom O’Neil has just released his dishy Globes predictions column. He has all of the inside scoop on what voters could be feeling about the contenders that wooed them most aggressively. He makes good arguments all the way around, citing films that might show up – films some of us would never think of because we aren’t in the know on the dish.
For Best Picture —
Prior to the Globes being announced, you see affection solidly for:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Green Book
Roma
First Reformed
The Favourite
These might be your five Best Picture nominees if there were only five.
With AFI folded in, there does seem to be an additional loose consensus forming for:
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
And then a few wild cards:
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
First Man
After the Golden Globes, we might see a bump for:
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Golden Globes will either confirm what we know already or else shift things in a wildly different direction. Tom’s column really makes you think that there could be a lot of surprises tomorrow morning.
Here are ten things to keep an eye out for:
1) Does First Man have any chance? How can such a monumental, brilliant film be shut out of a race that is supposedly about the highest achievement in film? Because we all know that isn’t what it’s about.
2) Which film will they make “happen” that had no real chance before? Bohemian Rhapsody? Paddington 2? Crazy Rich Asians? Ben is Back? Can You Ever Forgive Me? And yes, First Man?
3) Does Ryan Coogler get in for Best Director, thus legitimizing Black Panther as a serious Best Picture contender, not just to get nominated, but possibly to win? And do Barry Jenkins and Spike Lee also earn nominations? And if so, does that make Globes history? And will that repeat at the DGA? And at the Oscars? It’s looking more and more likely after the AFI.
4) Which film leads in number of nominations? I suspect that film will be The Favourite, because it could earn nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress X 2, maybe Score. It’s that extra supporting actress nomination that will push it over the edge. Does this mark the moment The Favourite becomes a formidable champ for Best Picture?
5) Does Eighth Grade earn any nominations, like Picture, Actress, Screenplay, Director? And if so, does it become a major contender?
6) Does the HFPA love Paul Schrader’s First Reformed as much as the critics do?
7) Will the rumors around Natalie Portman prove true? Here is what Tom O’Neil said in his Golden Globe predictions piece:
Portman is a wild-card contender. She’s only in the last half of “Vox Lux” and belongs in the supporting category – that’s where she submitted her name for consideration. But so many voters lobbied so passionately for her to be bumped up to lead that they forced a rare rebellious vote across HFPA, which caved, and they put her in the top acting race. Now how can they not nominate her there after all of that internal hubbub?
With all of that hubbub one would assume there is no way she isn’t nominated, even though she really should be in supporting.
8) How strong will Roma perform? Does it hold with just two nominations – Director and Foreign film? Or does it branch out to screenplay or maybe some acting categories.
9) Mary Poppins Returns vs. Green Book will dominate the Musical/Comedy side so watch for which film earns the most nominations. Green Book might have Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, possibly Screenplay.
10) As always, what kind of sentiments follow after the nominations? What films will people think got the shaft, if any? What films will be dumped because they didn’t deserve to be there at all?
I guess we’ll seen find out, tomorrow at early o’clock.
Here are the Oscar Squad’s predictions:
Film Drama
A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, David, Clarence, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Jazz
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Clarence, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Jazz
Bohemian Rhapsody – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Joey
Black Panther – Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Jazz, David
First Man – Sasha, Jalal, David, Clarence
First Reformed – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan
A Quiet Place – Ryan, Jazz, Megan
Mary Queen of Scots – Megan
Vox Lux – Clarence
Film Drama Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, David, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma – Megan, Ryan, Clarence
Toni Collette, Hereditary – Marshall, David, Ryan
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back – Sasha, David, Jazz
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer – Joey
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots – Megan
Film Drama Actor
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Ryan Gosling, First Man – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
John David Washington, Blackkklansman – Jalal, Jazz
Clint Eastwood, The Mule – Jalal
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace – Ryan
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased – David
Film Comedy / Musical
Crazy Rich Asians – Megan, David, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence, Ryan, Jazz
The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Vice – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Eighth Grade – Sasha
Paddington 2 – Sasha
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians – Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Joey, Ryan, Clarence, Jazz
Olivia Colman, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Lily James, Mamma Mia 2 – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Elise Fisher, Eighth Grade – Sasha, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Charlize Theron, Tully – Sasha, Marshall, David, Ryan, Jazz
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life – Sasha, Megan
Regina Hall, Support the Girls – Jalal
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor
Christian Bale, Vice – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun – Megan, Jalal, Sasha, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie – Megan, Ryan, Clarence, Jazz
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2 – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
Nick Robinson, Love Simon – David, Jalal, Joey
Lakeith Standfield, Sorry to Bother You – David
Jason Bateman, Game Night – David
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Amy Adams, Vice – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Emma Stone, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians – Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Jazz
Claire Foy, First Man – Megan, Jalal, Clarence
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David
Marina de Tavira, Roma – David
Best Supporting Actor
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Mahershala Ali, Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite – Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 – Sasha, Megan, Joey, Clarence
Sam Rockwell, Vice – Megan, Marshall, David
Adam Driver, Blackkklansman – David, Jazz
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther – Ryan, Jazz
Paul Giamatti, Private Life – Ryan
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy – Sasha, Jalal
Best Film Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Yugos Lanthimos, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, David, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Spike Lee, Blackkklansman – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Damien Chazelle, First Man – Jalal, Clarence
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan
Paul Schraeder, First Reformed – Sasha, Marshall, David
Peter Farrelly, Green Book – Joey, Megan
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns – Jazz
Best Film Screenplay
The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Vice – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Roma – Megan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Green Book – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
A Star Is Born – Sasha, Marshall, David, Jazz
A Quite Place – Jalal
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Joey
First Reformed – Sasha, David
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2 – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Isle of Dogs – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Ralph Breaks the Internet – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Spider-Man: Sasha, Into the Spider-Verse, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – Sasha, Marshall, Joey, David
Ruben Brandt, Collector – Ryan, Jazz
Mirai – Megan, Ryan, Clarence
Smallfoot – Megan
Early Man – Jalal
Best Foreign Language
Roma – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Cold War – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Capernaum – Sasha, Megan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Burning – Sasha, Megan, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Shoplifters – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Border – Jalal, Jazz
Everybody Knows – Jalal
The Guilty – Sasha, Marshall
Never Look Away – Marshall
Girl – Marshall
Birds of Passage – Ryan
Happy At Lazzarro – Joey
Best Song
Shallow, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Trip A Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
I’ll Fight, RBG – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex – Megan, David, Clarence
Revelation, Boy Erased – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Where the Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
Wrapped Up, Vox Lux – Jalal, Joey
Girl In the Movies, Dumplin – Jalal, Joey
Ashes, Deadpool 2 – Megan
Can You Imagine That, Mary Poppins Returns – David
Maybe It’s Time, A Star Is Born – David
Best Original Score
First Man – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, David, Jazz
Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Marshall, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Suspiria – Jalal, Marshall, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Ryan, David, Jazz
Widows – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall
Mary Queen of Scots – Ryan, Clarence
A Star Is Born – David
Black Panther – Joey
The Favourite – Sasha, David
Incredibles 2 – Megan
Roma – David
The Sisters Brothers – Joey
