We’ve heard from the critics, and a blend of critics and industry (a very very small sample size) with the AFI, and now the race is about to get down to it. The Golden Globes, whatever people might think of them, remain the single most important pit stop en route to Oscar. They are important for a few reasons. One is that if they also like what the critics like then you get the kind of blending you need to predict the Oscars. They are the Hollywood Foreign Press, wined and dined by celebrities, given cosy fireside chats with them, given gifts by them, given special access to them – no single group in all of the industry has a more comfortable existence than these folks. On the other hand, that doesn’t mean the studios completely have their way with them. The voters have to like the films being served to them. And if the 90 HFPA members and the critics like the same films? Well, that’s a reliable Venn diagram overlap and that means you are coming closer to seeing what the consensus will be when the industry — thousands and thousands of voters — begin to weigh in.
To know what the Globes are thinking, let’s take a trip over to Gold Derby where Tom O’Neil has just released his dishy Globes predictions column. He has all of the inside scoop on what voters could be feeling about the contenders that wooed them most aggressively. He makes good arguments all the way around, citing films that might show up – films some of us would never think of because we aren’t in the know on the dish.
For Best Picture —
Prior to the Globes being announced, you see affection solidly for:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Green Book
Roma
First Reformed
The Favourite
These might be your five Best Picture nominees if there were only five.
With AFI folded in, there does seem to be an additional loose consensus forming for:
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
And then a few wild cards:
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
First Man
After the Golden Globes, we might see a bump for:
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Golden Globes will either confirm what we know already or else shift things in a wildly different direction. Tom’s column really makes you think that there could be a lot of surprises tomorrow morning.
Here are ten things to keep an eye out for:
1) Does First Man have any chance? How can such a monumental, brilliant film be shut out of a race that is supposedly about the highest achievement in film? Because we all know that isn’t what it’s about.
2) Which film will they make “happen” that had no real chance before? Bohemian Rhapsody? Paddington 2? Crazy Rich Asians? Ben is Back? Can You Ever Forgive Me? And yes, First Man?
3) Does Ryan Coogler get in for Best Director, thus legitimizing Black Panther as a serious Best Picture contender, not just to get nominated, but possibly to win? And do Barry Jenkins and Spike Lee also earn nominations? And if so, does that make Globes history? And will that repeat at the DGA? And at the Oscars? It’s looking more and more likely after the AFI.
4) Which film leads in number of nominations? I suspect that film will be The Favourite, because it could earn nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress X 2, maybe Score. It’s that extra supporting actress nomination that will push it over the edge. Does this mark the moment The Favourite becomes a formidable champ for Best Picture?
5) Does Eighth Grade earn any nominations, like Picture, Actress, Screenplay, Director? And if so, does it become a major contender?
6) Does the HFPA love Paul Schrader’s First Reformed as much as the critics do?
7) Will the rumors around Natalie Portman prove true? Here is what Tom O’Neil said in his Golden Globe predictions piece:
Portman is a wild-card contender. She’s only in the last half of “Vox Lux” and belongs in the supporting category – that’s where she submitted her name for consideration. But so many voters lobbied so passionately for her to be bumped up to lead that they forced a rare rebellious vote across HFPA, which caved, and they put her in the top acting race. Now how can they not nominate her there after all of that internal hubbub?
With all of that hubbub one would assume there is no way she isn’t nominated, even though she really should be in supporting.
8) How strong will Roma perform? Does it hold with just two nominations – Director and Foreign film? Or does it branch out to screenplay or maybe some acting categories.
9) Mary Poppins Returns vs. Green Book will dominate the Musical/Comedy side so watch for which film earns the most nominations. Green Book might have Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, possibly Screenplay.
10) As always, what kind of sentiments follow after the nominations? What films will people think got the shaft, if any? What films will be dumped because they didn’t deserve to be there at all?
I guess we’ll seen find out, tomorrow at early o’clock.
Here are the Oscar Squad’s predictions:
Film Drama
A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, David, Clarence, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Jazz
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Clarence, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Jazz
Bohemian Rhapsody – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Joey
Black Panther – Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Jazz, David
First Man – Sasha, Jalal, David, Clarence
First Reformed – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan
A Quiet Place – Ryan, Jazz, Megan
Mary Queen of Scots – Megan
Vox Lux – Clarence
Film Drama Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, David, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma – Megan, Ryan, Clarence
Toni Collette, Hereditary – Marshall, David, Ryan
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back – Sasha, David, Jazz
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer – Joey
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots – Megan
Film Drama Actor
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Ryan Gosling, First Man – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
John David Washington, Blackkklansman – Jalal, Jazz
Clint Eastwood, The Mule – Jalal
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace – Ryan
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased – David
Film Comedy / Musical
Crazy Rich Asians – Megan, David, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence, Ryan, Jazz
The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Vice – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Eighth Grade – Sasha
Paddington 2 – Sasha
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, David, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians – Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Joey, Ryan, Clarence, Jazz
Olivia Colman, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Lily James, Mamma Mia 2 – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Elise Fisher, Eighth Grade – Sasha, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Charlize Theron, Tully – Sasha, Marshall, David, Ryan, Jazz
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life – Sasha, Megan
Regina Hall, Support the Girls – Jalal
Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor
Christian Bale, Vice – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun – Megan, Jalal, Sasha, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie – Megan, Ryan, Clarence, Jazz
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2 – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
Nick Robinson, Love Simon – David, Jalal, Joey
Lakeith Standfield, Sorry to Bother You – David
Jason Bateman, Game Night – David
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Amy Adams, Vice – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Emma Stone, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians – Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Jazz
Claire Foy, First Man – Megan, Jalal, Clarence
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, David
Marina de Tavira, Roma – David
Best Supporting Actor
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Mahershala Ali, Green Book – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite – Jalal, Marshall, Joey, Clarence
Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 – Sasha, Megan, Joey, Clarence
Sam Rockwell, Vice – Megan, Marshall, David
Adam Driver, Blackkklansman – David, Jazz
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther – Ryan, Jazz
Paul Giamatti, Private Life – Ryan
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy – Sasha, Jalal
Best Film Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Yugos Lanthimos, The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, David, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Spike Lee, Blackkklansman – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Damien Chazelle, First Man – Jalal, Clarence
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan
Paul Schraeder, First Reformed – Sasha, Marshall, David
Peter Farrelly, Green Book – Joey, Megan
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns – Jazz
Best Film Screenplay
The Favourite – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Vice – Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Roma – Megan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Green Book – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
A Star Is Born – Sasha, Marshall, David, Jazz
A Quite Place – Jalal
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Joey
First Reformed – Sasha, David
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2 – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Isle of Dogs – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Ralph Breaks the Internet – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Spider-Man: Sasha, Into the Spider-Verse, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch – Sasha, Marshall, Joey, David
Ruben Brandt, Collector – Ryan, Jazz
Mirai – Megan, Ryan, Clarence
Smallfoot – Megan
Early Man – Jalal
Best Foreign Language
Roma – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Cold War – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Capernaum – Sasha, Megan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Burning – Sasha, Megan, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence
Shoplifters – Megan, Jalal, Ryan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Border – Jalal, Jazz
Everybody Knows – Jalal
The Guilty – Sasha, Marshall
Never Look Away – Marshall
Girl – Marshall
Birds of Passage – Ryan
Happy At Lazzarro – Joey
Best Song
Shallow, A Star Is Born – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, David, Clarence, Jazz
Trip A Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
I’ll Fight, RBG – Sasha, Megan, Marshall, Ryan, David, Clarence, Jazz
Here Comes the Change, On the Basis of Sex – Megan, David, Clarence
Revelation, Boy Erased – Sasha, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Where the Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Marshall, Ryan, Jazz
Wrapped Up, Vox Lux – Jalal, Joey
Girl In the Movies, Dumplin – Jalal, Joey
Ashes, Deadpool 2 – Megan
Can You Imagine That, Mary Poppins Returns – David
Maybe It’s Time, A Star Is Born – David
Best Original Score
First Man – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
If Beale Street Could Talk – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, David, Jazz
Mary Poppins Returns – Sasha, Marshall, Jalal, Ryan, Joey, Clarence, Jazz
Suspiria – Jalal, Marshall, Clarence, Jazz
Blackkklansman – Megan, Ryan, David, Jazz
Widows – Sasha, Megan, Jalal, Marshall
Mary Queen of Scots – Ryan, Clarence
A Star Is Born – David
Black Panther – Joey
The Favourite – Sasha, David
Incredibles 2 – Megan
Roma – David
The Sisters Brothers – Joey
Did anyone on “the Oscar Squad” see “A Private War”? No one picked Rosamund Pike or Annie Lennox. Shame.
I’m rooting for Toni and Glenn in drama category. Charlize and Natalie in musical comedy category.
I think the only two nominations I’m emotionally invested in rooting for are Toni Collette for Hereditary and Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians. Ethan Hawke gave my favorite performance of the year, but I think he’s a lock at this point.
I’m emotionally in rooting for Toni Collette too. Fingers crossed.
Me too!
Yeah, that feels like it captures the season more aptly.
And by season, I mean year.
I finally watched The Kindergarten Teacher on Netflix. I thought it was great. Maggie Gyllenhaal was excellent. Very uncomfortable movie to watch. Especially the last 15 minutes. I know she doesn’t have a chance but I’d be thrilled with a nomination for Maggie.
Im rooting for Charlize Theron in Tully tomorrow, crossing my fingers and hoping for a very well deserving nomination, one of the most versatile talented actress of this generation.
Me too just want to wake up tomorrow and see : Charlize Theron nominated for best actress comedy/ musical , I mean if you compare her performance with the others really no offense for the others, but her performance was absolutely fierce , heart broken and so real, she should be in the top front .
OH. MY. GOD. (Pun intended.) Sandra Oh and Andy Samberg will be co-hosting the Golden Globes!
I love that they waited until the Academy announced their host and then immediately stole their thunder, knowing their choice would make them look SO much better. I bet the HFPA is sitting back and sipping their tea right now.
NGNG for the Globes:
Paul Greengrass for director
Supporting actor category gets more muddled with three supposed likely Oscar nominees not nominated
Zero nominations for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Trying to ask this with as little cynicism as possible, but… what is so monumental about First Man?
Some of us found it deeply moving. Emotions are a personal experience. It was also a grand technical achievement and gave us the definitive, historically accurate account of the moon mission.
Here are my updated GG predictions:
BP – DRAMA
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Widows
ACTOR – DRAMA
Bradley Cooper
Clint Eastwood
Ryan Gosling
Ethan Hawke
Rami Malek
ACTRESS – DRAMA
Viola Davis
Lady Gaga
Nicole Kidman
Melissa McCarthy
Natalie Portman
BP – COMEDY
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice
ACTOR – COMEDY
Christian Bale
Lin-Manuel Miranda
Viggo Mortensen
Robert Redford
Nick Robinson
ACTRESS – COMEDY
Emily Blunt
Olivia Colman
Lily James
Charlize Theron
Constance Wu
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali
Timothee Chalamet
Sam Elliott
Nicholas Hoult
Michael B. Jordan
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Nicole Kidman
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz
DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper
Alfonso Cuaron
Peter Farrelly
Barry Jenkins
Yorgos Lanthimos
SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Widows
5 GG nominations (including Director and Screenplay) would be a good haul for Green Book. The only other nod it could theoretically get is Original Score.
We should be on the lookout if A Star Is Born (2018) gets a Screenplay nod here (6 nominations total). Same with Schrader for First Reformed (which is likely not happening).
The Favourite should also have a good day (6 nominations total), but it will be interesting what wins in the Comedy categories.
Under the radar acting contenders who could emerge after potentially pulling off a surprise tomorrow :
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) – If there is any justice she WILL emerge.
Keira Knightley (Colette) – Such a strong performance.
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased OR Ben is Back) – Brilliant work this year.
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie) – The film could surprise in the Comedy categories.
Steve Carrel (Welcome to Marwen) – Last big question mark of the season, this film.
Natalie Portman (Vox Lux) – Very VERY impressive performance.
Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) – Scenestealer.
Blake Lively (A Simple Favor) – Ditto.
Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns) – Long overdue for some mainstream recognition.
Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) – Lot of people expect him to get in, he would be a solid choice.
All I want for Christmas is a Toni Collette nomination
Dear Lord. No offence to her, she’s a decent actress, but in that terrible movie?
I wonder if there will be any MASSIVE surprises, the kind that the HFPA tends to throw out there every once in a while, usually with big names. Maybe Amy Schumer (I Feel Pretty) or Jennifer Lopez (Second Act) for Comedy Actress ?
As far as big surprises go, I for one would love to see some unexpected love for A Simple Favor, Love Simon, Colette, Boy Erased, Vox Lux and A Private War,
My big surprise because I really hope it happens is Paul Greengrass for director
I haven’t seen a “No Guts, No Glory” post from Sasha yet, so just in case I don’t have time to come back here later, mine are:
Emma Thompson gets a nod for actress in a drama for The Children Act
Welcome to Marwen gets a best comedy nod
Stephan James get a nod for actor in a drama for Beale St.
I have to ask, with all the buzz for Eighth Grade, where is the love for Josh Hamilton? In a weak year for supporting actors, his performance as one of the most sympathetic and sympathetically-rendered screen dads in recent memory easily outshines some of the category’s frontrunners. Yes, the film lives and dies with Elsie Fisher, and she’s amazing, but he shouldn’t be overlooked.
If Stuhlbarg couldn’t get nominated last year for “Call Me By Your Name” I don’t know how Hamilton would pull through. I loved the film and his performance (I definitely cried) but I feel like Stuhlbarg was the gold standard for movie dads.
Amén
He has a Spirit nomination.
Do y’all think if Portman ends up nominated tomorrow, they will switch the campaign to Lead Actress? It doesn’t look uncrackable, as only Gaga, Colman and maybe Close seem like locks at this point. She could very well pull it off.
p.s. I’m slightly confused by the Roma mention in Original Score.
I think it is pretty much uncrackable at the Oscars. I’d say Gaga, Colman, Close, McCarthy, and Blunt are locks. I wish Collette could get in but it’s so unlikely. Can we expand this to like 7 nominees? 😛 This category has been so packed the past couple years and many brilliant performances go unnoticed.
Close and McCarthy are far from locks given how they’ve performed so far this season. Gaga, Colman, and Blunt are solid but that leaves two wide open slots for the likes of Portman, David, Aparicio, Kidman, Roberts, Ronan. Definitely not uncrackable.
I would love it if the acting awards allowed for 4-7 nominees instead of forcing 5.
uhh McCarthy is a lock? She has missed basically everywhere so far.
Yeah, but I think she is more an Oscar thing than a critics. She is a personality and that seems to be big thing in the major awards.
Tomorrow will be crucial for her. HFPA does love its movie stars and they have 10 Best Actress slots so if she makes it there, she is back in the game. If she doesn’t, that may signal the end of the road for her this season.
Full disclosure : she got her first Oscar nod in spite of a shocking Golden Globe snub (how she didn’t get a GG nod for Bridesmaids that I don’ know), but unlike lead, that was only 5 slots so that is easier to miss.
Missing out on GG when they have two categories is big trouble for anyone. I don’t think that’s an issue. I don’t think she is a lock I(n fact I don’t think any one is at the moment) but she’s in my to six. I have Close, Collette, Colman, McCarthy, Blunt and Gaga.
For the Oscar I’m predicting the Close-Gaga-Colman-Blunt-Ronan quintet with Roberts as the alternate.
I’m always close to put Kidman in my six but I think the fact that she has a very good shot at making it in supporting may just convince voters to support others in lead.
Hold on to your hats, there’s going to be a huge around the corner.
We shall see. For what it’s worth, I’m still hoping for Pike and / or Knightley.
They are so quiet I don’t know if the Academy will hear them. But there is usually at least one big surprise and the fact that there are so many good performances means anything can happen really. I think BP is getting tight between a few films but the acting categories are still way too open.
Portman should stay in supporting, she is completely absent from the first hour of the movie. Having said that she should DEFINITELY be a nominee in supporting because boy, that is some tour de force she pulls off there. IMO her second best turn of all time after Jackie.
My full ass prediction
Movies and TV
Golden Globe Nomination Predictions
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
BlackkKlansman
Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Yalitzia Apricio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux
Alternate: Toni Collette – Hereditary
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born Willam Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Ethan Hawke – First Reformed
Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Clint Eastwood – The Mule
BEST PICTURE – COMEDY / MUSICAL
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favorite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns Vice
Alternate: Eighth Grade
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY / MUSICAL
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns Olivia Colman – The Favorite Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron – Tully
Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians
Alternate: Lily James – Mamma Mia Here We Go Again
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY / MUSICAL
Christian Bale – Vice Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortenson – Green Book
Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun
Nick Robinson – Love, Simon
Alternate: John C Reilly – Stand and Ollie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams – Vice
Regina Hall – If Beale Street Could Talk
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
Emma Stone – The Favorite
Rachel Weisz – The Favorite
Alternate: Claire Foye – First Man
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Mahershala Ali – Green Book Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me
Nicholas Hoult – The Favorite
Michael B Jordan – Black Panther
Alternate: Timothy Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
BEST DIRECTOR Alfonso Cauron – Roma
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favorite
Spike Lee – BlackkKlansman
Alternate: Mairelle Heller – Can You Ever Forgive Me
BEST SCREENPLAY BlackkKlansman The Favorite
Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Alternate: Vice
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
The Grinch
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Alternate: Small Foot
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Black Panther
BlackkKlansman
First Man
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternate: Roma
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Dumpin – Girl in the Movies
Deadpool 2 – Ashes
Mary Poppins Returns – Trip the Light Fantastic
A Private War – Requiem for a Private War
A Star is Born – Shallow
Alternate: RBG – I’ll Fight
BEST FORIEIGN FILM
Border
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate: The Guilty
BEST TV SHOW – DRAMA
The Handmaids Tale
Homecoming
Killing Eve
Pose
Westworld
Alternate: This is Us
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Sterling K Brown – This Is Us
Kevin Costner – Yellowstone Matthew Rhys – The Americans
Milo Ventimigllia – This Is Us
Jeffrey Wright – Westworld
Alternate: Stephan James – Homecoming
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA Jodie Comer – Killing Eve
Sandra Oh – Killing Eve
Elizabeth Moss – The Handmaids Tale
Julia Roberts – Homecoming
Keri Russell – The Americans
Alternate: MJ Rodriguez – Pose
BEST TV SHOW – COMEDY Atlanta
Barry
Kidding
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alternate: Forever
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY
Jim Carrey – Kidding
Ted Danson – The Good Place
Michael Douglas – The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Bill Hader – Barry
Alternate: Sasha Baron Cohen – This Is America
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jennifer Garner – Camping
Allison Janey – Mom
Issa Rae – Insecure
Maya Rudolph – Forever
Alternate: Sarah Gilbert – The Connors
BEST MINI-SERIES / TV MOVIE
Assasination of Gianni Versace
Escape at Dannemora
Maniac
Sharp Objects
The Tale
Alternate: The Little Drummer Girl
BEST ACTOR – MOVIE / MINI Darren Criss – Assasination of Gianni Versace
Benedict Cumberbatch – Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant – A Very English Scandal
Jonah Hill – Maniac
Benicio Del Toro – Escape From Dannemora
Alternate: Al Pacino – Paterno
BEST ACTRESS – MOVIE / MINI
Amy Adams – Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette – Escape at Dannemora
Laura Dern – The Tale
Regina King – Seven Seconds
Emma Stone – Maniac
Alternate: Connie Britton – Dirty John
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR TV
Alan Arkin – The Komisky Method
Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta
Edgar Ramirez – Assasination of Gianni Versace
Tony Shaloub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Henry Winkler – Barry
Alternate: Ben Wischaw – A Very English Scandal
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS TV
Alec Borstein – The Marvelous mrs. Maisel Patricia Clarkson – Sharp Objects
Ann Down – The Handmaids Tale
Laurie Metcalf – The Conners
Thandie Newton – Westworld
Alternate: Penelope Cruz – The Assasination of Gianni Versace
And Sandra Oh and Andy Samberg are hosting !
Is there something I don’t know about the songs from A Star Is Born? Sure, Shallow is the clear front runner but what about I’ll Never Love Again? Or Always Remember Us This Way?
Also, what happened to Timothée Chalamet being a sure thing in Supporting Actor?
WB opted to campaign only for “Shallow”, clearly they are going for the win and trying to avoid split votes with multiple nominations in the same category.
Timothee Chalamet, while not a sure thing, nobody is this early in the season, remains a strong contender for the nomination. As long as he gets at least some of the big nods (Golden Globe, SAG) he is fine.
Yeah, but nobody is talking about him winning now, are they? But I am still not certain who is going to win that category. Ali looks the strongest but he won recently and his film has controversy too. It could be anybody and maybe the season will turn late and Chalamet could come back?
This is what I meant. He only received two votes from the Awards Daily staff. I think he deserves a nom myself.
I think it will be Ali, especially if his film continues to be a viable BP contender.
Then again Chalamet is an it boy with a recent nod, loads of industry goodwill and a well-executed role that is both flashy and important. Too bad the film around him isn’t as good as his turn is.
Of course it could just as well be a Plummer-esque year and a sweep could just happen for one of the beloved veterans, Richard E. Grant or Sam Elliot.
Meanwhile I’m starting to have a sneaking suspicion that two actors, never nominated before, could just sneak in at last this year, and the ironic trivia is that they are frequent co-stars (Cloud Atlas, Paddington 2, A Very English Scandal) : Hugh Grant (Paddington 2) and Ben Whishaw (Mary Poppins Returns). Former has a proper campaign happening at the moment so that’s promising and if latter’s movie hits big, he might just be swept in, too, word is he – as per usual – delivers a wonderful performance as the grieving single father of 3.
Will they be head to head again after P2?
Off-topic: Dargis’ and Scott’s top 10:s: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/movies/best-movies.html
Dargis:
1. “Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)
2. “Burning” (Lee Chang-dong)
3. “Shoplifters” (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
4. “Zama” (Lucrecia Martel)
5. “Happy as Lazzaro” (Alice Rohrwacher)
6. “BlacKkKlansman” (Spike Lee)
7. “First Reformed” (Paul Schrader)
8. “The Death of Stalin” (Armando Iannucci)
9. “Monrovia, Indiana” (Frederick Wiseman)
10. “Colophon (for the Arboretum Cycle)” (Nathaniel Dorsky)
Scott:
1. “Monrovia, Indiana” (Frederick Wiseman); “Bisbee ’17” (Robert
Greene); “Hale County This Morning, This Evening” (RaMell Ross);
“Minding the Gap” (Bing Liu)
2. “Happy as Lazzaro” (Alice Rohrwacher)
3. “First Reformed” (Paul Schrader)
4. “Private Life” (Tamara Jenkins)
5. “Roma” (Alfonso Cuarón)
6. “Let the Sunshine In” (Claire Denis)
7. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” (Marielle Heller)
8. “BlacKkKlansman” (Spike Lee)
9. “Capernaum” (Nadine Labaki)
10. “The Favourite” (Yorgos Lanthimos)
Dargis also had a really great Honor Roll and Scott had some really good films on his Runners-Up list as well
if you go to Metacritic they pull together a list of all top ten lists that easily digestible. There’s around 20 up at the moment
Although some of those lists are… curious. Two were topped by Avengers: Infinity War.
It’s people’s personal top ten lists. Not sure why anything is curious. I agree that having Avengers as the best of the year is far from my list but to each their own.
They’re not really personal top 10s but Empire’s and Gamespot’s staff consensus top 10s so I find it somewhat questionable why especially the latter is even on Metacritic’s list
Curious in what way?
Those IW first votes come from “staff consensus” vote by Gamespot and Empire.
Looking at it more closely, I doubt anyone will produce a better top 10 list than Dargis this year. Genuinely phenomenal selections
Agreed – top 3 are top films of 2018 for me and three others are top films of 2017, with two (Happy as Lazzaro and Monrovia, Indiana) as honourable mentions.
Not a big fan of BlacKkKlansman and haven’t seen the Dorsky.
Love that The Death of Stalin made an appearance.
After seeing “Beautiful Boy” the other day it is absolutely bonkers to me that Chalamet is not even listed as a potential nominee above, let alone the favorite to win. I didn’t love the movie (could have used a more judicious editor, for sure, and Carrell was definitely outperformed by Chalamet and Tierneu) but it did it’s job, but I haven’t been so wowed by a performance in a long time. He was truly outstanding.
Oops…sorry, I see now he is dead last. But my sentiment still stands.
Is it strange that I could see a Best Director lineup of:
Jenkins
Cuaron
Cooper
Marshall
Schraeder
Nope. I’m expecting something similar for DGA only with Coogler in there somewhere.
That’s too close to what I think the Academy is going to nominate but I don’t think they will match more than three. Your top look the only tree could match Academy. I think Schrader is fourth while Marshal and Coogler could crash the party. I actually think the Academy will look for more obscure director in fifth spot. Marshall and Coogler look more like DGA, BFCA and GG nominees.
Tamara Jenikns? That’s a very brave call.
Barry Jenkins, I believe
It seems like A Star is Born has been completely left out of this article with the exception of the prediction lists. Was that an oversight?
Roma will likely only get two noms ..Director and Foreign Film …this will be the beginning of the unravelling of this waaaaay overrated movie
Oh please, out of all the great films this year, they’re going to overlook that just to crown Black Panther at the Oscars? Give me a break! A mediocre popcorn flick if ever there was one. It’s got no business being named as the “best” anything of the year.
A Star Is Born (Drama?????)
It was a wise strategic decision ..it’ll easily win Drama and deny the victory and traction to a competitor
To be fair, all the serious competitors are either in Comedy or in Foreign Language.
Though assuming The Favourite wins Comedy/Musical, that may cement it’s status as equal frontrunner for the Oscar, alongside ASIB
and pigs may fly …the Favourite will never be an equal frontrunner with ASIB
Nicole Kidman should make it for Destroyer