On Wednesday, the Screen Actors Guild will be the first major guild to ring in. They are industry but since they merged with AFTRA they have a different sort of point of view than the rest of the industry, at least when it comes to their ensemble nominations. Their acting nominations tend to mostly match what we might normally expect, give or take one or two. Since they’re AFTRA, along with with SAG, they have a more “populist” flavor than if it was just actors voting. AFTRA includes, radio DJs, television journalists, etc.
Before they merged with AFTRA, their ensemble nominations were a pretty good indicator of what the actors thought about Best Picture, which is probably why that nomination was so crucial, up until last year when The Shape of Water shattered the stat. Now, it isn’t thought to be as essential, to have that nomination, so if one favorite doesn’t turn up there, that doesn’t really mean it can’t or won’t win Best Picture.
There have been some great ensembles this year. So many, in fact, that predicting this category is going to be difficult. In general, the ensemble prize often goes to films that have a lot of actors in them, the higher profile, the better. But that is not a hard and fast rule. They don’t have to be well known to land a nod if the movie is hot — like Slumdog Millionaire.
The films we suspect will do well for ensemble include:
The Favourite – locked, will probably win
Black Panther – seems to be locked
A Star is Born – seemingly locked but is it just the two leads and Sam Elliot?
Vice – bravura performances across the board
Crazy Rich Asians – It seems like a popular ensemble – is it “serious” enough?
Widows – the kind of ensemble Best Ensemble is made for. Robert Duvall, Liam Neeson, Viola Davis. Was it seen and liked enough to get in?
If Beale Street Could Talk – also seems locked, but only five slots?
Green Book – if they really love it they might overlook that it’s only three names for ensemble.
Roma – could go either way
BlackKklansman – another film that seems made for this nomination.
The long shots, by Gold Derby’s standards, would include:
Mary Poppins Returns
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Five slots, completely at the hands of the 2,000 randomly selected nominating committee.
Here are our predictions.
Best Actor:
Christian Bale, Vice – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Bradley Cooper – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Rami Malek – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Viggo Mortensen – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Ethan Hawke – Flores, Adams
John David Washington, BlackKklansman – Stone
Best Actress:
Glenn Close, The Wife – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Olivia Coleman, The Favourite – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me – Stone, Flores
Tony Collette, Hereditary – Flores, Adams
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns – Tangcay
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians – Tangcay
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma – Adams
Supporting Actress:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Amy Adams, Vice – Stone, Tangcay, Flores
Emma Stone, The Favourite – Stone, Tangcay, Flores
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians – Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite – Stone, Flores, Adams
Claire Foy, First Man – Stone, Adams
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased – Tangcay
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy – Stone, Tangcay, Flores
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther – Adams
Ensemble:
The Favourite – Stone, Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Black Panther – Stone, Tangcay, Flores
Vice – Stone, Tangcay, Flores
A Star is Born – Tangcay, Adams
Crazy Rich Asians – Tangcay, Flores, Adams
Mary Poppins Returns – Stone, Flores, Tangcay
BlackKklansman – Stone
If Beale Street Could Talk – Adams
Widows – Adams
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