The Theatrical Motion Picture Nominees are:
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Dick Cheney – “VICE” (Annapurna Pictures)
BRADLEY COOPER / Jack – “A STAR IS BORN” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
RAMI MALEK / Freddie Mercury – “BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY” (20th Century Fox)
VIGGO MORTENSEN / Tony Lip – “GREEN BOOK” (Universal Pictures)
JOHN DAVID WASHINGTON / Ron Stallworth – “BLACKKKLANSMAN” (Focus Features)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
EMILY BLUNT / Mary Poppins – “MARY POPPINS RETURNS” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
GLENN CLOSE / Joan Castleman – “THE WIFE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Anne – “THE FAVOURITE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
LADY GAGA / Ally – “A STAR IS BORN” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
MELISSA McCARTHY / Lee Israel – “CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
MAHERSHALA ALI / Dr. Donald Shirley – “GREEN BOOK” (Universal Pictures)
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET / Nic Sheff – “BEAUTIFUL BOY” (Amazon Studios)
ADAM DRIVER / Flip Zimmerman – “BLACKKKLANSMAN” (Focus Features)
SAM ELLIOTT / Bobby – “A STAR IS BORN” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
RICHARD E. GRANT / Jack Hock – “CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
AMY ADAMS / Lynne Cheney – “VICE” (Annapurna Pictures)
EMILY BLUNT / Evelyn Abbott – “A QUIET PLACE” (Paramount Pictures)
MARGOT ROBBIE / Queen Elizabeth I – “MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS” (Focus Features)
EMMA STONE / Abigail – “THE FAVOURITE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
RACHEL WEISZ / Lady Sarah – “THE FAVOURITE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
A STAR IS BORN (Warner Bros. Pictures)
DAVE CHAPPELLE / George “Noodles” Stone
ANDREW DICE CLAY / Lorenzo
BRADLEY COOPER / Jack
SAM ELLIOTT / Bobby
RAFI GAVRON / Rez Gavron
LADY GAGA / Ally
ANTHONY RAMOS / Ramon
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel Studios)
ANGELA BASSETT / Ramonda
CHADWICK BOSEMAN / T’Challa/Black Panther
STERLING K. BROWN / N’Jobu
WINSTON DUKE / M’Baku
MARTIN FREEMAN / Everett K. Ross
DANAI GURIRA / Okoye
MICHAEL B. JORDAN / Erik Killmonger
DANIEL KALUUYA / W’Kabi
LUPITA NYONG’O / Nakia
ANDY SERKIS / Ulysses Klaue
FOREST WHITAKER / Zuri
LETITIA WRIGHT / Shuri
BLACKKKLANSMAN (Focus Features)
HARRY BELAFONTE / Jerome Turner
ADAM DRIVER / Flip Zimmerman
TOPHER GRACE / David Duke
LAURA HARRIER / Patrice Dumas
COREY HAWKINS / Kwame Ture
JOHN DAVID WASHINGTON / Ron Stallworth
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (20th Century Fox)
LUCY BOYNTON / Mary Austin
AIDAN GILLEN / John Reid
BEN HARDY / Roger Taylor
TOM HOLLANDER / Jim Beach
GWILYM LEE / Brian May
ALLEN LEECH / Paul Prenter
RAMI MALEK / Freddie Mercury
JOE MAZZELLO / John Deacon
MIKE MYERS / Ray Foster
CRAZY RICH ASIANS (Warner Bros. Pictures)
AWKWAFINA / Peik Lin Goh
GEMMA CHAN / Astrid Young Teo
HENRY GOLDING / Nick Young
KEN JEONG / Wye Mun Goh
LISA LU / Ah Ma
HARRY SHUM, JR. / Charlie Wu
CONSTANCE WU / Rachel Chu
MICHELLE YEOH / Eleanor Young
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
ANT-MAN AND THE WASP (Marvel Studios)
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (Marvel Studios)
THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS (Netflix)
BLACK PANTHER (Marvel Studios)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FALLOUT (Paramount Pictures)
The 55th Annual SAG Life Achievement Award
ALAN ALDA
25TH ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS®
NOMINATIONS FACT SHEET
ACTORS WITH NOMINATIONS
FOR MULTIPLE THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE & TELEVISION PERFORMANCES
STERLING K. BROWN (3)
MOTION PICTURE CAST – “Black Panther”
MALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “This Is Us”
AMY ADAMS (2)
FEMALE SUPPORT – “Vice”
FEMALE TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES– “Sharp Objects”
EMMA STONE (2)
FEMALE SUPPORT– “The Favourite”
FEMALE TV MOVIE/LIMITED SERIES– “Maniac”
EMILY BLUNT (2)
FEMALE LEAD – “Mary Poppins Returns”
FEMALE SUPPORT – “A Quiet Place”
ACTORS WITH NOMINATIONS
FOR A SINGLE THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURE OR TELEVISION PERFORMANCE
ALAN ARKIN (2)
MALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “The Kominsky Method”
JASON BATEMAN (2)
MALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “Ozark”
ALEX BORSTEIN (2)
FEMALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
ALISON BRIE (2)
FEMALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “GLOW”
RACHEL BROSNAHAN (2)
FEMALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
BRADLEY COOPER (2)
MALE LEAD & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “A Star Is Born”
MICHAEL DOUGLAS (2)
MALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “The Kominsky Method”
ADAM DRIVER (2)
MALE SUPPORT & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “BlacKkKlansman”
SAM ELLIOTT (2)
MALE SUPPORT & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “A Star Is Born ”
JOSEPH FIENNES (2)
MALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
LADY GAGA (2)
FEMALE LEAD & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “A Star Is Born ”
JULIA GARNER (2)
FEMALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “Ozark”
BILL HADER (2)
MALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “Barry”
LAURA LINNEY (2)
FEMALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “Ozark”
RAMI MALEK (2)
MALE LEAD & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “Bohemian Rhapsody”
ELISABETH MOSS (2)
FEMALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
BOB ODENKIRK (2)
MALE DRAMA & DRAMA ENSEMBLE – “Better Call Saul”
TONY SHALHOUB (2)
MALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
JOHN DAVID WASHINGTON (2)
MALE LEAD & MOTION PICTURE CAST – “BlacKkKlansman”
HENRY WINKLER (2)
MALE COMEDY & COMEDY ENSEMBLE – “Barry”
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES WITH MULTIPLE NOMINATIONS
“A Star is Born” – 4
“BlacKkKlansman” – 3
“The Favourite” – 3
“Black Panther” – 2 (including a stunt ensemble nomination)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” – 2
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” – 2
“Green Book” – 2
“Vice” – 2
NOMINATIONS BY STUDIO FOR THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
FOX SEARCHLIGHT – 5
WARNER BROS. PICTURES – 5
FOCUS FEATURES – 4
MARVEL STUDIOS – 4 (including 3 stunt ensemble nominations)
20TH CENTURY FOX – 2
ANNAPURNA PICTURES – 2
PARAMOUNT PICTURES – 2 (including a stunt ensemble nomination)
UNIVERSAL PICTURES – 2
AMAZON STUDIOS – 1
NETFLIX – 1 (including a stunt ensemble nomination)
SONY PICTURES CLASSICS – 1
WALT DISNEY STUDIOS MOTION PICTURES – 1
My predictions for the film categories
Ensemble: black panther
Actor: Rami Malek for bohemian Rhapsody
Actress; lady Gaga for a Star is born
Supporting actor: Timothee Chalamet for boy erased
Supporting actress: Amy Adams for Vice
Stunt ensemble: black panther
If the Academy goes my way it would be:
Best Picture:
BlacKkKlansman
Cold War
First Man
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
Roma
The Favourite
Vice
Widows
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Best Actor:
Christian Bale (Vice)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Best Actress:
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Best Supporting Actor:
Mashershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Steven Yeun (Burning)
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
7 of your BP 10 were nominated by the London Film Critics Circle. 🙂 And no ASIB, Vice, Green Book etc. for them, either. You must be a big fan of that list!
Yes! I love their nominees!
Oh, you did have Vice – the rest of it, then. 🙂
What goes against Lady Gaga this season is that it looks very likely that she will be up against 4 established, acclaimed actresses who have never won an Oscar, either. I’m not sure the Academy would risk the optics of giving her an Oscar for her first proper movie role before they give one to 1. Glenn Close 2. Emily Blunt 3. Olivia Colman 4. Melissa McCarthy (5. Rosamund Pike 6. Saoirse Ronan).
P.S. Yes, I think Pike is 6th at the moment, problem is the top5 seems rock solid. And yes, Ronan may have been M.I.A. so far but I still firmly believe that 1. Bafta can bring her back and they are usually good predictors of Oscar surprises 2. the Academy clearly loves her (3 nods before turning 25).
And a lot of male voters might not vote for her considering she’s in a movie that glorifies like what a member in this thread said “Female ascendency and male irrelevancy”
Well ASIB is a shoo in for the emsemble trophy, which makes it a heavy fav for Oscar. I’m estatic that Emily Blunt got two nominations (who really expected that), and also that Margot got a supporting nod.
Screen Actors Guild Award nominees Dave Chappelle and Andre Dice Clay… Haha. That’s a weird sentence.
Call me crazy but I think Dice Clay might sneak in for an Oscar nom.
They said that about blue jasmine too though. But I have yet to watch asib do I don’t know.
Not sure exactly how common this is, but I find it odd that “Crazy Rich Asians” (especially the mention for Harry Shrum, Jr. who I’m familiar with but for some reason did NOT recognize in this movie) and “Black Panther” got Ensemble nominations but no other acting nominations while “The Favourite” got three nominations and “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” got two nominations and neither got an Ensemble nod? Aside from the ladies in the “The Favorite” that whole cast was uniformly excellent. Not that I think those Ensemble nods aren’t somewhat warranted, it just struck me as odd.
Shum showed up for a few seconds (seriously not even a minute) at the end to set up his character for the sequel. He’s the Ellen Burstyn of SAG. He’s even worst than Burstyn. He’s worst than Gwen Stefani being nominated for The Aviator.
I think my issue with his nomination is the fact that Beeth Gabriel and Lil Rey Howard were not included in the SAG Ensemble nomination last year when they gave two of the most impactful performances in that film and Shum is nominated for a film I don’t even remember him being in when he is an actor I recognize (from “Glee,” but still…). I feel like if they loved that movie enough, Yeoh would have been nominated individually.
Let me see what part of this I can actually comment on, given the self-ban… As I pick my jaw off the floor, same as, I’m assuming, everyone else…
Did both Roma AND If Beale Street Could Talk just get zero SAG nominations?! Did The Favourite get 3 but still miss SAG Ensemble?! Did Green Book and Vice also just miss that?! Did all of these thing actually just happen?!… Apparently so. I’m not allowed to comment much on any of this, beyond expressing shock, of course, but it’s gotta be one of the more interesting lists of SAG nominations in a while.
Hawke missing isn’t a huge surprise, I’d say, for obvious reasons, although I’m sure it’ll be called that, still. Foy missed, which blows. Regina King is the weirdest snub, of course. Since it’s happened only once before that a supporting actress be snubbed here and still win the Oscar, I’d say this is bad. More so because IBSCT seemed like it should be a movie SAG would embrace, no?! I don’t know… Good news for Amy Adams fans, in any case. At least now she has a shot.
What I CAN do that has nothing to do with my official final prediction is give the updated BP stats table (top 25, this time), which now includes the SAG nominations:
A Star Is Born 41 24
Roma 36 23
BlacKkKlansman 36 19
The Favourite 34 22
Green Book 31 18
Vice 27 16
If Beale Street Could Talk 24 16
First Reformed 23 15
Eighth Grade 20 13
Black Panther 17 9
Can You Ever Forgive Me? 15 9
A Quiet Place 15 8
First Man 12 7
Mary Poppins Returns 12 7
Bohemian Rhapsody 9 5
Leave No Trace 5 4
Beautiful Boy 5 3
Crazy Rich Asians 5 3
The Wife 5 3
The Death of Stalin 3 2
Widows 3 2
Mary Queen of Scots 3 1
At Eternity’s Gate 2 2
Boy Erased 2 2
Hereditary 2 2
As intended from the start, I’m now going into signature prediction mode for the rest of the season, so…
Current official Oscar Best Picture prediction: A Star is Born
——————————————————————————-
The Shape of water had two individual acting nominations for Hawkins and Jenkins despite the SAG ensemble snub. Roma was snubbed completely. Braveheart remains the only Best Picture winner without any SAG nomination.
“Braveheart remains the only Best Picture winner without any SAG nomination.”
And it was the first year, which still seems relevant, somehow. Also, the opposition was missing a directing nomination. Will that be the case this year? (As it was, again, last year.) Who knows?!…
“Current official Oscar Best Picture prediction: A Star is Born”
I hate to say this, but I agree…
I am such an admirer of your work and the thought you put into it. 🙂 It gives me food for thought. You were right with Get Out last year; I kept thinking they’d put it as #1 for Best Picture. Wrong, Julie. Time to defer to the greatness of a superior mind.
Thank you for the exceedingly kind words, Julie!… But, come on, I get it wrong AT LEAST as often as the rest of the world. Especially when it’s intuition vs. intuition. I’m lucky I believe in the stats, and have come to understand pretty well how to read them, or else I’d be much worse at this. 🙂
It sucks seeing SAG choose Bohemian Rhapsody for ensemble. Rami really “got” it, I think, in a way that was significant enough that I will be happy to see him nominated, even for the Oscar. But the film itself, and the way it handles having an ensemble, do not need to be recognized. It was a problematic film containing homophobic ideas and imagery (regardless of original intent).
Tell that to Tom O’Neill.
An ensemble nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody in the year of The Favourite, First Man, Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk and so many others deserving of an honour like this is SAG voters’ worst pick in a looooong time, if not ever.
Agreed!
I don’t see why ”The Favourite” and ”Green Book” not getting Ensemble nominations are ”snubs.” ”The Favourite” revolves around the 3 women – Colman, Stone and Weisz – and they all got nominated. Similarly, ”Green Book” is basically a two-hander between Mortensen and Ali. Who else had a notable supporting role? Linda Cardellini as Tony’s wife? To me, the other characters didn’t do enough to merit a best ensemble nomination. Ditto for the supporting men in ”The Favourite” – Nicholas Hoult, Joe Alwyn, etc. Not nominating Ryan Gosling & Claire Foy for ”First Man,” now THAT’S a ”snub.”.
As for diversity,3 of the 5 Ensemble movies represent well: ”BlackkKlansman,” ”Black Panther” and ”Crazy Rich Asians.” But diversity doesn’t fare so well in the individual film acting nominees: only 3 out of 20: two African-American men and one Arab-American man. Without Regina King, who’s been winning many of this season’s Supporting Actress trophies (so far), SAG’s 10 best and supporting actress nominees are all white.
“Not nominating Ryan Gosling & Claire Foy for ”First Man,” now THAT’S a ”snub.”.”
🙁 A painful one…
Will motion capture acting ever get the attention of the Screen Actors Guild? I’m looking at next year’s slate of films, and I do seriously wonder if something like The Lion King could win over the SAG voters. I feel safe at least saying that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman stand a great chance. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2571878d76fb11139eb1956330a3ddd243e179a487a805db60dfd445a8947e4a.jpg
But they’re not motion capturing The Lion King, are they?
It appears it is motion capture. This is what it says on the film’s Wikipedia page:
“Production
Production on the film commenced in mid-2017 in Los Angeles, California,[19] utilizing “virtual-reality tools”, per Visual Effects Supervisor Rob Legato.[20] Virtual Production Supervisor Girish Balakrishnan said on his professional website that the filmmakers used motion capture and VR/AR technologies.[21]”
I’m not sure what to do with motion capture. I mean, I can judge the voice of the character (as I would’ve been all for Johansson winning any award for Her), but the visual part of a mocap performance is really a shared work between the actor and the vfx team. Some of the actor’s “acting” will 100% be lost during the process, and replaced by some VFX which may be better/worse/similar to the actor’s performance, but it’s really impossible to tell what came from whom. They could consider doing a Best Motion Capture Performance category, jointly awarded to the actor and VFX team.
That’s a great point Aroncido about the dual work between the actor and the VFX team. I like your idea a lot of them adding in a Best Motion Capture Performance category.
A reminder, Christoph Waltz won the Oscar for Django Unchained after being snubbed by the sag jokes, same with Marcia Gay Harden she won the Oscar in 2000 for “Pollock” without the sag jokes nomination, Marion Cotillard was snubbed by the sag jokes in 2015 for Two Days and One Night and she earned an Oscar nomination. The sag jokes are not a big deal, especially today they show how much of a big jokes they really are..
My despair at the thought of Bohemian Rhapsody now being a very strong contender for a Best Picture nomination has morphed into a full-on, some-men-just-wanna-watch-the-world-burn twisted fantasy:
I now want nothing more than for Bryan Singer to pick up a surprise Best Director nomination. The fallout and the powder keg of anguish, horror, and sheer rage that would spring that would be just fucking glorious.
It’s not going to win. I’d bet almost anything on it. I think I’d bet the dog.
My mistake, I didn’t mean to imply BR has a good shot at winning, just the nomination. Edited my original post to fix this.
I want BR to get nominated for Best Picture, because it’s a great film, but also I want Brian May and Roger Taylor at the Oscars this year!
Great googly moogly, give up this Roma bent already! It will get a handful of Oscar noms, maybe a win or two, and that’s it. Stop paying attention to the critics or you’ll be Sally Hawkinsed into oblivion with your picks!
But the Oscars liked The Shape of Water more than critics did, so that was a bad analogy. You should have said Willem Dafoe’d, Laurie Metcalfed or Timothee Chalameted into oblivion.
I think Chase was referencing the 2008 race when Hawkins blew away all Actress competition with her Happy-Go-Lucky performance, only to see it not get nominated.
Very sad to see that two arguably best movies of the year have failed to make even the smallest of dents at the SAG. Face it people, Roma and If Beale Street Could Talk are dead in the water. Roma had already a lot of things going against it (black and white, not in english, Netflix), so I guess not scoring here was no surprise. IBSCT however was expected to make an appearance here, at least once. I fear that this particular omission at the SAG will trickle down(up?) to other categories, to the degree that right now I’m not sure if Cuaron and Jenkins will make the cut for Directing.
Oh yeah, Two more things
One. Bohemian Rhapsody will get a BP nod (Darkest-Hour/Dallas-Buyers-Club-style). Sadly that’s a fact right now (just wait for the PGA to embrace that nice big fat boxoffice score). I predict a total of 5-6 nods. BP, Actor, Costumes, Make-Up, Sound Mixing, maybe Editing.
Two. A Star is Born wins BP. And probably Director, Actress, maybe Supporting Actor. I’d say Black Panther has a chance, but I don’t see it getting nominated by the DGA. It has the SAG, will get the PGA and WGA, but DGA is very shaky. And you know what they say….
https://imgflip.com/i/2ots98
Beale Street maybe (and sadly) but Roma was predicted by many not to get in here, given that foreign language pictures rarely do.
If anything, SAG cleared the slate of ‘small movie’ contenders of the playing field, leaving BlackKKlansman and possibly only The Favourite matching the profile of recent Best Picture winners.
I also fear for The Favourite 🙁
I have to be honest. I don’t remember so many brilliant movies and BP contenders being cut in half so early in the season.
They haven’t all been cut in half. Clearly SAG-AFTRA is not as valuable a precursor now as SAG alone was.
Obviously, SAG has never lined up with Oscar 20/20 (although it has come close with 19/20 twice). Usually, it lines up anywhere between 13 and 18 eventual nominees correct across the four categories. Over its 24 years, SAG’s average is 4.1 nominees wrong each year.
SO… assuming four of these SAG nominees won’t translate to Oscar, which four would you predict?
My guesses, from most to least likely:
Emily Blunt (replaced by Regina King)
John David Washington (replaced by Ethan Hawke)
Margot Robbie (replaced by Claire Foy)
Glenn Close (replaced by Yalitza Aparicio)
I don’t think Ethan Hawke is getting in at this point. And absolutely not for Yalta Aparicio! I haven’t seen Roma yet, but I was one of the people who said she’d get nominated. But not just missing Globe and SAG, but also NOT WINNING LA Films Critics who embrace foreign language performances that’s dead and buried. And even if she did get nominated it wouldn’t come at the expense of Glenn Close.
Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins isn’t getting in. Have you read Poppin’s latest reviews? A 70 on Metacritic and a harsh pan in the LA Times. No way.
I do think Nicole or Yalitza have an outside shot of getting into the category.
He meant Emily Blunt from A Quiet Place would be replaced in Supp. Actress.
I meant Emily Blunt in lead actress. Glenn is still in. The Academy isn’t nominating a role in a subpar sequel to a beloved children’s movie.
….
The ensemble nominations seem to get more surprising every year.
Confounding?
Hmm.
Another film that landed zero noms at the SAG Awards and came this close to triumphing at the Oscars.
*Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*
It should have won against Gladiator! The Academy is more diverse and modern now, so maybe Roma can win where Crouching Tiger didn’t.
Cuaron is not Ang Lee…
He’s different. I am just glad that both are producing brilliant work.
You have to wonder if Crouching Tiger would have dominated a preferential ballot that year. Probably!
Michelle Yeoh and Ziyi Zhang were both BAFTA nominees for ”Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000). But they were passed over for nominations by the Academy, SAG, Globes and major critics’ groups (though Zhang was up for an Indie Spirit Award).
Actually, Roma has generally outperformed or at least didn’t do worse at any precursor than Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. But the problem is Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’s enormous box office. Roma is unlikely to do even reasonably strong, and even if it did, we would never know.
The race is going 10 times faster than it used to so people dont have time to over think it. Roma isnt about cast so much as direction and script anyway
Shit nominations
No Hawke, no Collette
No The Favourite ensemble- WTF?
No Roma- expected I guess
Crazy Rich Asians in Ensemble?
Blunt in supporting for a quiet place? She’s lead.
I think they were confused — how could she be lead with so few lines?
Me regarding the frustration of this awards season…
via GIPHY
lol
Are we gonna get your Best Films list soon? I always look forward to it every year.
Very just waiting for the Clint. (And the Zemeckis I guess although it looks bad)
Sweet. Yeah, I’m waiting on The Mule and yes, even Welcome to Marwen as well. But then again, I’ve got a bunch left to see.
Guys. Let’s not bother Bryce right now.
He’s probably busy sorting through these SAG choices.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/043fc691ca34175ba864530b846c1ad89c2802cc80940bbb830310ca975674d0.gif
Hilarious! Looks like we should cast Bryce in a Superhero movie perhaps? He’s gotta amazing strength.
Can I like this 100000X?
There is a certain moment in the awards race, when you realize that the time of the inspired choices and ambitious candidates all of a sudden ends and the nominations get dull – that´s when you say HELLO to the guild awards!
Sorry to Ethan Hawke, Toni Colette, Thomasin McKenzie, the ensembles of Roma and The Favourite amongst many others – you are nevertheless great.
Let´s wait for my always beloved National Society of Film Critics, the only remain exit before we all will get gaga!
I always also enjoy what the International Cinephile Society does. They’ll probably have a great lineup this year
Simply the words “Remain” and “Exit” are now triggering me with all the Brexit craziness going on.
Damn, the Brits are crazy! 🙂
Oh, one of my favourite critics groups for sure.
From this, I’m thinking (SAG winners)
Actor – Cooper (alt. Bale)
Actress – Gaga (alt. Close)
Supp. Actor – Grant (alt. Elliott)
Supp. Actress – Blunt (alt. Adams)
Ensemble – BlackKklansman (alt. Crazy Rich Asians or Crazy Rich Africans a.k.a. Black Panther)
Stunt Ensemble – Black Panther (alt. Mission Impossible: Fallout)
I don’t know, I just don’t see them giving ASIB both Lead awards and then not giving it Ensemble. Sure, they might want to spread the wealth, but then I’d say they’d only give it one Lead award. My predictions are probably Cooper/Colman/Grant/Adams/Black Panther. Alternative lineups are Bale/Gaga/Grant/Weisz/Black Panther and Cooper/Gaga/Grant/Adams/A Star is Born.
I think they want to reward both leads but they might want to give Ensemble to such an important film as BlackKkansman which is the one with the most gravitas of the 5 nominees. The most important one.
Gotta admit that you were calling Washington and I rejected that, and it looks like he could end up with an Oscar nomination. He’s not a lock but he’s in a far better position than i thought he was! Congrats.
I underlined that the biggest campaign Oscar wise, that was foreseen was probably BlackKklansman, hitting on all the right spots (gravitas, power names backing it, being the anti-Trump film of the year and more). That of course is never a warrant but what I underlined, is that the logical frontrunner (real frontrunner) for a victory at Oscar night was BKKKM, not A Star is Born, nor Roma, and specially not Green Book. The only film I could see eclipsing BKKKM a bit for that final win, was If Beale Street could talk, but the SAG ensemble nom kind of marks the turn of the tide in favor of Lee’s. His overdueness will be a factor, a key one.
I see absolutely zero chance of BKKK winning but — as we have seen — I’ve been wrong before.
if you’re seeing zero chance of BKKKM winning… I urge you to do your homework. I would compare the situation of BKKKM to the ones these films had:
Schindler’s List
Return of the King
An Inconvenient Truth
The Departed
The Hurt Locker
Guess what they ALL have in common: Best Picture (one as Doc) winners.
Guess what they ALL have in common, too, but the doc: They also won Best Director for an Overdue name (or in The Hurt Locker’s case, to a female director, something it never happened before).
In case you forgot: never an African-American director won Best Director. And only John Singleton, Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins have ever been nominated before.
I give up with you. I tried to be nice. I gratuitously, on my own initiative, posted a message congratulating you on predicting Washington. I said I was wrong.
Then I posted a second message saying i didn’t see BKK winning but “AS WE HAVE SEEN — I have been wrong before”. Again, gratuitously admitting and teasing myself about my errors.
And what do you do? You reply with a snarky message. So, forget it. Sorry. Done with you, and with your relentless need to be nasty instead of friendly.
well, that’s your perception… if you consider me nasty, block me right away, problem solved. It’s not a competition, and I never saw it as such. Just ignore me from now on. It would probably be even healthy for both of us.
great ldea
I underestimated BlacKKKlansman. I don’t see it winning Best Picture just yet. However, Spike Lee could be this year’s Guillermo Del Toro, and if he starts picking up those wins of the Director side, it can do well on the preferential ballot.
SAG couldn’t care less about gravitas, don’t overestimate them.
Mark my words, this is Amy Adams’ year! Blunt missed the Globe nomination in that category, and I think she has a way better chance of being nominated for Mary Poppins Returns than A Quiet Place. Robbie is lucky to be nominated, but that’s it, she’s nominated. Stone and Weisz are two previous Oscar winners, so that won’t happen for them so soon. I know Weisz won almost 13 years ago, but still it doesn’t help her chances.
Richard E. Grant, I could seriously see that happening. Saw that movie a week ago and he stole the show!
Two men — one black, the other white, eating Kentucky Fried Chicken in a ’62 Cadillac DeVille rolling down a highway debating black culture. So much is explored in “Green Book,” Peter Farrelly’s bromance about Tony Lip, a hunky Bronx-born Italian-American Copacabana bouncer, and Dr. Don Shirley, an erudite, multilingual, closeted gay, classically trained pianist who lives above Carnegie Hall.
Watching this picture as an African-American I was predisposed to think it was going the way of others exploring connections between black and white characters: Oh, here we go, the Magic Negro trope is here again. I could not be more pleasantly surprised and excited to be proven wrong. There is a saying in filmmaking: sometimes what is the most profound thing is to keep it simple.
“Green Book” is simple but honest to the characters and time. Viggo Mortensen, who always embodies a role like a new costume, is amazing as Tony Lip. It’s not just the offhanded way he mouths off Calabrese-inflected Italian, it’s the way he organically brings to life this guy, a man without pretensions. Conversely, Mahershala Ali plays Dr. Don Shirley as a self-made man, who eschews all pretensions of what black men were prejudiced to be defined as. He speaks clearly, does not condone violence or theft. Ali plays Dr. Shirley as a self-modeled man of his times. Fighting against all social norms.
With this picture, Farrelly has evolved into a classic director in the vein of Billy Wilder. The humor is juxtaposed by pathos. Some of the most powerful moments simply seem to happen: black workers down South pausing to view a black man, immaculately suited, stepping out a car driven by a white chauffeur. Or two men in the rain, when one says: “If I’m not white enough, and I’m not black enough, and I’m not man enough, then what am I?” When Tony Lip gets Dr. Shirley out of a dicey situation at a YMCA, he simply tells him, “Don’t worry about it. I’ve been working in clubs in New York City my whole life.
I know it’s … it’s a complicated world.’
Simple but complex. In “Green Book,” the characters are who they are. They don’t change as people; the worlds they embody evolve because these two different men simply become lifelong friends. How profound. How complex.
Nicely done, cirkusfolk.
What if I feature this comment just because it’s so well-written?
Will I get accused of trying to play favorites with Green Book?
Would I still get beaten up if I swear on all the bibles and kama sutras that I’m not even close to nailing down my Top 10 of 2018? — much less trying to claim that I know what my #1 will be?
===
If anyone else wants to make A Case For your favorite nominee today, please do. We can rotate the featured comment here every few hours.
Email me to let me know you’ve taken a swing at this challenge, okay? — because no way am I able to excavate through 1000 comments on the page to find freshly minted arguments.
ryanadams.AD@gmail.com
Oh no Ryan Adams. I was expecting/hoping for a backlash against the opinion (not the opposite) as it isn’t mine. It’s actually a piece written by Director John Singleton for Variety. I only didn’t use quotes and cite it as such because I wanted to get other’s feedback without the knowledge of who the actual author was. So even though, I liked Green Book and stand against this supposed controversy it has, you can’t use the comment. But now that the cats out of the bag, anyone care to tell John Singleton he’s wrong?
ahhh, thanks for setting me straight.
I misunderstood what that was.
You wowed me. Got my attention. I thought “dayum, cirkusfolk is sounding like a renowned filmmaking genius” 🙂
I’m still impressed with you. maybe 5% less impressed now 🙂
Dammit! I’m gonna have to make up for that now. Back to the drawing board 😉
Not everyone is loving ”Green Book” – notably Dr. Don Shirley’s family, which is speaking out and says the film is ”full of lies.”
https://shadowandact.com/green-book-is-full-of-lies-dr-don-shirleys-family-speaks-out
Here’s is the link to the article… there’s also pieces by Chris Nolan praising First Man and Denis Villeneuve praising Star Is Born…
https://variety.com/gallery/directors-on-directors-black-panther-a-star-is-born/#!2/ben-affleck-a-quiet-place
I’m still chuckling like a little kid over the kama sutra reference.
Bohemian Rhapsody, NOT so gay. For Your Consideration in all categories, except best music and best songs which is the main reason people like it anyway… but, whatever, did I mention it is comfortably gayish but NOT so gay?!
It takes talent to make a movie about one of the most original, transgressive, revolutionary queer icons of the 20th century and turn it into Bryan Singer’s – or should I say Brian May and Roger Taylor’s – Bohemian Rhapsody.
Maybe if Freddie Mercury had been a 16 year old teen, Singer would have thrown more of an effort into the filmmaking.
All very true, but practically every biopic ever made is a bland depiction of a much more interesting life, with factual errors and “tasteful” exclusions, and a potentially fascinating story crammed into a formula. I’m not saying BH was good — it wasn’t — but i was not at all surprised that it was what it was. Which, I suppose, is a sad commentary on films.
Imagine what Todd Haynes or Gus Van Sant or John Cameron Mitchell might have done with it!
Sacha Baron Cohen had brought Fincher and Peter Morgan on board, but May and Taylor said no.
Not sure about Peter Morgan. Fincher is a very good director, but i think a gay sensibility and aesthetic would have been needed. I mean, it saturates their music.
Queen asked Cohen to write the script but since he didn’t know how to write a biopic he contacted Peter Morgan, who’s the best, or at the very least the most trusted and popular biopic writer in England.
Morgan is certainly skilled, but I don’t think he’s not particularly interesting. I would have wanted someone with more edge and a more distinctive personality in his writing.
I just imagined a Haynes version with the energy of Velvet Goldmine and had to stare blankly forward with my mouth open for several minutes before I could move on. Thank you for bringing this idea into my mind!
Also, this makes me hate Bohemian Rhapsody so much more, and I already considered it to be the worst film of the year
We need to crowdfund Ferdinand’s next visionary concept. I mean it.
I do believe that the audience’s love for the film — and when i saw it, they LOVED it — is primarily about nostalgia for those songs. People cannot separate that from their assessment of the movie itself.
Toni Colette getting snubbed in favour of Mary Poppins aggravates me to no end.
https://twitter.com/filmystic/status/1068998572937490433
The more I’m looking at it, the more BlacKkKlansman feels weird in the Ensemble category. 4 films seem to have been propelled there by the overwhelming public success (perhaps A Star is Born would’ve been there anyway), but BlacKkKlansman is such a weird fifth choice. It’s not a huge success, it’s not a critics’ favourite, it doesn’t have many big stars… I don’t know what its addition means.
What it means is it was released early so they all saw it.
Ok now we can officially call the Sag Awards : MTV Awards. I don’t know with what to start..I don’t know if this is a bad joke? Or like if they are serious? God damn.
Off topic but Mary Poppins Returns is at 71 now on Metacritic after 22 reviews – not too spectacular but I think good enough.
But it will not be the lowest rated BP with GB likely nominee and BR a possible nominee.
70 now with 26 reviews.
Bohemian rhapsody was an incredible concert movie and is hugely loved by audiences. I was paying very close attention to the film and I was applauding for rami malek and the queen quartet.
A Star is born is the best of the bunch.
Black panther is the mtv movie award nominee.
Blackkklansman is the movie Donald trump calls the feel good movie of the year.
Crazy rich Asians is a surprise package.
These TV SAG nominees are so forking bad there’s still not a story on ADTV about them. I think the folks who run ADTV are as embarrassed at those nominations as everyone else.
The glaring omission of The Haunting Of Hill House is damning.
In hindsight, would it have made better sense for Netflix to opt for *limited series* for THOHH instead of drama?
They probably didn’t want a replay of the Big Little Lies incident. Netflix and Amblin are still mulling over a potential season 2, so if they greenlight it, running a Limited Series campaign would have looked like a fraud. I still expect it to be big at the next Emmys, especially for Writing and Directing.
They probably didn’t want a replay of the Big Little Lies incident. Netflix and Amblin are still mulling over a potential season 2, so if they greenlight it, running a Limited Series campaign would have looked like a fraud. I still expect it to be big at the next Emmys, especially for Writing and Directing.
Omg im shocked this is the worst nominations ever, so it’s more about ‘ studios and popularity’ rather than stunning performances ? Actually all the best performances of the year are not there… the most bold performance Theron in Tully ? Collette in Heriditary ? Regina King If Beale Streets could talk ? Ensemble cast The Favourite ? …..
Nailed it. They’re all about “what’s mainstream? What serves politics? What scores at the box office?” They’re like “we don’t give a shit about the best, we just want more ratings and glamour.” Who gives a shit if Gaga couldn’t even approach Charlize’s and Toni’s brilliance in their respective films, they want to have Gaga, who btw in the best year for leading female performances is probably going to win all major awards. If awards continue like this (spoiler: they sadly always will) they should probably stop or something.
Or make a new category at the Oscars for “popular films”….er, uh
Right, their initial “new idea” pretty much sums up how they see cinema. Sad really. People grow up thinking of Black Panther as art, I can’t even describe how I feel about it
I agree ….it’s incredibly unfair those actresses worked hard and bringed such bold outstanding performances but as you said they don’t give a damn about brillant performances it’s all about mainstreams..politics ..popularity..
The weirdest thing is that three critics sweeties as Colette, Hawke and King are not only going to lose Major Prizes, but they totally didn’t get a nominee (except for King at the Globes).
I think that Colette is out for sure. Academy will always prefer a Mary Poppins towards a Jennifer Kent inspired Mama… But I’m more disappointed for Theron snub than Colette.
And…. I really fear to say it………. I’m very happy for BR. I hope it will get a BP nominee
Colette is a film this year. Collette is an actress.
A Star is Born got the most nominations today with 4, so chances are it’s winning something. But the question is, which one?! Sam Elliott won’t win, I see whoever takes the Globe will get this rolling momentum going. The Ensemble could, but I don’t see that happening right now. That means either Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, or both will win. I think if either one of them wins the Drama Golden Globe, they’ll have a very strong chance of winning SAG. But what are everyone else’s thoughts.
It easily wins Actor, Actress and Ensemble. The only threat for Ensemble is Black Panther.
I’m really wanting Bradley Cooper to win. But I think anyone in that category can win except for John David Washington. Lady Gaga is a lock for the Globe, and that can help her at SAG as well. Ensemble I’m torn but predicting Black Panther for now.
Both are very likely to win the Drama globe. Gaga’s main threat I think is Colman, who could take the SAG and the BAFTA and the Oscar in the end. I have a hunch that Ensemble will be Black Panther. That leaves Cooper to win for Actor.
I was predicting Olivia Colman for a week and a half, but I think she’s now going to lose the Comedy Golden Globe to Emily Blunt. Not only because she got the SAG nomination, but the Globes prefer the A-list stars and Blunt is way more known in America than Colman.
It is true that the Globes like to have big stars on their stage, but it very rarely happens that someone wins over the classic “awards favourite” just because they are a bigger star. They gave the Globe to Isabelle Huppert over Natalie Portman! They almost never give an otherwise “non-contender” the award over a “contender”. Now, we could argue that Blunt is in fact a “contender” because of her SAG nomination, but as she seems very unlikely to win the Oscar, I don’t think she will win the Globe either.
But is Colman the awards favourite now? She was when The Favourite was supposed to be an awards juggernaut. It already had two big snubs and it’s only December. Plus the Globes will happen right after the holidays, when Mary Poppins will be drowning in money.
Well, compared to others in the Comedy category, she certainly is a more serious contender for the Oscar than others I think. Maybe Gaga (or even Close) is still the official frontrunner, but I think Colman still lingers as a potential threat, which adds some kind of “urgency” to vote for her at the Globes. At least that’s how I feel about it.
Blunt could get an Oscar nomination after being nominated today for Mary Poppins Returns, which is where I think she has the better for a nomination than A Quiet Place.
Well also take into account that Natalie Portman had two Golden Globes before Jackie. So her losing her first Golden Globe was not THAT surprising when you think of it. I predicted her not knowing she had never lost a Golden Globe. Isabelle Huppert was the true alternative to someone who had already won two Globes. Emily Blunt won’t win the Oscar, I think it’s beginning to look like Lady Gaga’s, but Gold Derby is saying the industry is raving about it. I’d be surprised if Blunt didn’t get nominated for an Oscar from either film at this point.
Do you think Rami Malek has a realistic chance at the Globes, I think he’s the only one who can win besides Cooper, even though I think Cooper is pretty safe at the Globes.
Malek is the only one who can win that besides Cooper IMO. But it would still be a most weird result. It would not only mean Malek wins for BR, but that Cooper loses for ASIB. However trivial that might sound, a film that keeps performing well (even though it missed Screenplay at the Globes, which might be a warning sign) is unlikely to lose in Best Actor to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody of all things.
I think Malek can be an upset at the Globes only if Cooper wins Director. With just one trick, the Globes would reward a super popular movie with Best Actor and elevate the auteur profile of the superstar. It would be a very Globe thing to do.
i can def see this scenario too — Malek is right up their alley. As long as they can reward Cooper somehow.
I’m not sure whether producers get their own Globe for Best Picture, because in that case could even go further…
Rami Malek for Best Actor
Spike Lee for Best Director (the FIRST major Directing award for an African-American director)
Bradley Cooper as producer of A Star Is Born
The Globes love to call first so if BlacKkKlansman appears to be strong when Globe vote wraps, they’ll go straight for the bullseye.
Well when a film wins Best Film Drama or Comedy/Musical. One person accepts the award on the film’s behalf. If A Star is Born wins Drama Film, which it’s likely to do, Bradley Cooper wouldn’t become Golden Globe winner Bradley Cooper because of it, he’d just take the Globe on the film’s behalf. Just like when The Martian won Best Film Comedy/Musical, Ridley Scott never became Golden Globe winner Ridley Scott, he accepted the Globe of the film’s behalf.
my money is on Cooper. But, Gaga could upset Colman.
I don’t think Colman is a frontrunner anymore for a win. I think she’s going to lose the Golden Globe to Emily Blunt.
i think this is a year where Actor and Actress will go to the same film — Cooper and Gaga in ASIB. I do think people see that film as a two-hander where the two lead performances are inseparable. Richard E. Grant seems to be coming on strong to unseat Elliott and Ali (which i would LOVE — not their defeat, but Grant’s victory).
I’d love this. (not the defeats of Elliott and Ali, of course, but the Gaga/Cooper/Grant wins) I feel, though, that certain biases will keep Lady Gaga from winning.
Here’s Lady Gaga’s path to winning. Globe + SAG. If she wins both, she’s the frontrunner. Then she’s going to have to rely on something else to ensure she’s the heavy frontrunner. Emily Blunt is going to have to win the Comedy Golden Globe over Olivia Colman. Why? Because Colman is a lock for BAFTA. The Globe + BAFTA combination will not make her the frontrunner, but will keep her in the conversation. But Blunt wins Golden Globe Comedy, then I think Lady Gaga is safe to win the Oscar.
Plus keep in mind that the Academy LOVES amazing performances from people who are not full time actors. Jennifer Hudson is a great example.
Hudson had in edge in being black and having the whole rags to riches b-story. I also think its telling that Gaga lost the Oscar when everyone thought she was going to win it. She’s got baggage in the likability department big time.
Well she lost that one because the winner was so obvious, but we weren’t paying attention. Sam Smith won the Golden Globe, and that should’ve been the sign that he was going to win. Also, Spectre was definitely the most widely viewed movie by the Academy. I seriously doubt they took the time to watch The Hunting Ground. And I was hoping Smith would pull it out, because in my opinion it was one of the strongest Bond themes along with Skyfall in recent years.
Grant stole the show completely! He could seriously win.
The biggest thing we learned today is that Supporting Actress is officially Amy Adams’ to lose! I conceded five days ago Regina King had this locked up, but this snub is a big deal. This isn’t a situation where it screened too late to be widely seen like Django Unchained, Phantom Thread, or The Post. Beale Street has been around since September when it screened first at TIFF. Amy Adams will now win both the Globe and SAG and go on to win the Oscar!
and like Amy said in Enchanted: it’s magical
Absolutely! 6th time will be a charm for her! And for playing Lynne Cheney of all people.
Then she will win in lead in the next 20 years for a biopic on Hillary Clinton
You know Hope Davis did a great job at playing Hillary Clinton for a TV movie I think it was.
Are you talking about Special Relationship? 🙂
Yes I am! I haven’t seen it in its entirety, but I’ve seen parts of it.
Also, Kate McKinnon and Amy Poehler are fantastic Hillary Clintons on SNL.
from your lips to God’s ears
I don’t give the Academy that much credit.
I think the most disturbing aspect of the SAG nominations is that four of the five ensemble nominations (ASIB, Bohemian, Crazy Rich, and Panther) are for essentially junky popular entertainments. All four films are surely entertaining, but …
Only BlacKkKlansman has artistic credibility.
That is kind of pathetic.
I wouldn’t go as far as that. A Star Is Born and Black Panther try to go beyond the realms of their own genres, and to some extent they both succees (Black Panther in particular, imo). What BlacKkKlansman has in its favour is an experienced director who hasn’t been so actively ferocious and intense in over a decade. BlacKkKlansman is a constant eruption, that’s why it’s so good, despite its flaws. It could have easily derailed but it didn’t.
Fair enough. I agree with you on ASIB — of the four, it has, to me, some merit. But I thought Panther was just junk — definitely well made junk, but still a superhero movie piece of junk. It was culturally and economically important, but i don’t personally think that that reflected any actual artistic merit.
ASIB had artistic credibility.
Have they seen ‘First Man’ or was it released too late to be screened in time?
Too good to be selected. And they probably felt the American Flag should have been included as part of the cast
I feel like the voters really really wanted A Star is Born to win that they nominated it alongside the most average ensembles of the year. And if you really think about it, it’s less fishy rather than nominating The Favourite, Widows, Vice and If Beale Street Could Talk then make them lose against the average ensemble of A Star is Born. I mean can someone seriously tell me that the serviceable cast of CRA and Bohemian Rhapsody are better than the powerhouses of Widows (Viola Davis, Cynthia Erivo, Daniel Kaluuya, Colin Farell, and Liam Neeson) and Vice (Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Steve Carell, Sam Rockwell, Tyler Perry)? Hell even First Man and Mary Poppins Returns have better ensembles than those that are listed in the nominees.
Lol “average ensemble of A Star Is Born”…. yea ok. You act as if alllll the SAG voters are on a secret message board conspiring….for what exactly? What is the payoff?
Lol. It’s probably not true. It’s just my “feeling”. Trying to make sense of the confusing situation.
You sound like you don’t agree with my opinion that the ASIB ensemble is average. Well… to each his own.
I think the ensemble in ASIB is one of the few redeeming factors of the movie, and I probably would have nominated it but SAG often goes for popularity.
You know this thought crossed my mind, but then I thought that might be giving them too much credit. Although, I wouldn’t put anything past Cooper. He wants this thing BAD!
The shift from critics to guild awards always hurts as the inevitable popularity trumping quality kicks into play.
This one hurts more than most previous SAG noms.
I’m thrilled that ”Crazy Rich Asians” got a SAG Ensemble nomination, and it really was a great group effort. But it’s annoying how apparently how billing determines whether or not an actor is included. Chris Pang, who played Colin, Astrid’s cheating husband, and Nico Santos, who played Olivier, the funny gay cousin, had minor but important supporting roles. They’re not part of the SAG nomination. But Harry Shum Jr. (”Glee,” ”Shadowhunters”), who plays Charlie, a former beau of Astrid’s, is among the 8 SAG-nominated ”Asians” listed, and has but a wordless cameo. (Shum’s role got whittled down during the editing; he’ll played a larger role in the sequel.)
Early predictions for the Oscar BP lineup:
Locked:
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
Roma
Black Panther (meh…)
Probable:
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Long shots:
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
I think you have to add Bohemian Rhapsody to “long shots” at least at this point, certainly above First Man.
true. editing- thank you
Please don’t call anything locked. It’s so arrogant. People thought Vice was a lock for SAG ensemble.
It’s just a prediction. You havent been here long have you? We do predictions based on stats and noms from guilds and critics. I’m sure many other people here have predictions. Don’t take it personally. Welcome to the website and enjoy the ride!
A few notes I haven’t noticed anyone making yet:
1) In all years since 1995 except for 2007, at least two of the best director nominees were nominated for ensemble
2) 2002 is the only year in SAG history when at least one of the screenplay winners wasn’t nominated for ensemble.
I think this is extremely promising to BlacKkKlansman’s chances
I’m inclined to call for a bit more research into the impact of the SAG and AFTRA merger on the SAG Awards’ alignment with the Oscars. Before that, I’d be cautious to treat pre-merger and post-merger SAG awards as one and the same.
Do you have information on how large SAG was before this and how large SAG-AFTRA is now?
Also, for the nominations it really doesn’t matter that much in my opinion. After all, it’s a random sample from a very large group of people. Unless AFTRA voters actually “think differently than SAG voters” (which I don’t think is inherently true), and it produces largely the same results that SAG would have alone (or at least I’d argue that, there don’t seem to be notable changes since), so I don’t think it’s necessarily that big a difference. (if we were somehow running a t-test of this data, I would not believe that p would be smaller than 0.1)
According to Wikipedia, SAG had 130k members and AFTRA had 75k. If more than third of the members are AFTRA, more than third of the nominating committee will be AFTRA, and yes, what I’m trying to say I think SAG voters and AFTRA voters are fundamentally different, as is indeed, basically every awards group.
Sure but if you take 130k people of a profession in the entertainment industry, one can assume that their opinion will regress to the mean. Same with 75k. The means in question might be different but I don’t believe that they’re that significantly different from each other, as guilds and other awards chosen by large voting bodies prove
Sure, they roughly align, as do indeed all awards bodies. But in case of such delicate statistics as we are discussing here (like at least two directors being nominated for ensemble) even small differences in voting can make a large difference. I think it’s very possible that the small differences in SAG and AFTRA taste can change one or two nominees occasionally, as indeed the difference between films getting nominated and just not getting nominated are believed to be usually small. Difference in one or two nominees do not sound like a lot, but if number 6 for Ensemble was indeed Roma, or Green Book, or another perceived “strong” contender, it could very well be the difference between the stat you mentioned breaking or not. I think the main takeaway from all this is that a SAG ensemble nomination for scoring directing, writing, etc. at the Oscars is important, but I don’t think we can quite see how important.
I have my reservations about that as well, but for now I don’t quite think we have enough reason to assume the change is too significant. We might soon, though…
Your stats posts are pure GOLD!…
I really wish SAG Ensemble wasn’t so closely tied to Best Picture. Think of all the great ensembles of actors that were never even in consideration this year. I would have loved to have seen any of these pop up:
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
GAME NIGHT
LOVE, SIMON
MAMMA MIA: HERE WE GO AGAIN!
OCEAN’S 8
WIDOWS
Huh. Anne Thompson at Indiewire has her review up of The Mule and the headline is ‘The Mule Review: Clint Eastwood’s Best Movie in More than 25 Years’.
That’s a potent headline. That means basically since Unforgiven/Bridges of Madison County.
It’s actually Ehrlich’s review, which surprises me even more
At the same time, it’s currently at 65 on MC.
About the Regina King omission, maybe the voters assumed she had secured a spot and voted for one of the other actresses.
No, the IBSCT team really worked the campaign trail up to this point. If that was the case where they assumed she secured a spot, then A Star is Born would’ve missed everything today.
Thoughts:
This year, the industry is saying: Move over little indies that no one has seen … we’re here for ASIB, Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody.
I don’t think the Ensemble noms means very much for The Favourite and Green Book. Both will probably be nommed for BP, neither were winning it, anyway. And I think Roma is continuing to be a non-factor for major wins outside of Foreign.
Best Actor – Hawke was always just a critics thing, to me. These omissions are proving that. And I don’t know that BAFTA will bite, either. Having said that … if not him … who gets the 5th spot!? Washington, Hedges, Gosling, Redford, etc.
Best Actress – that could be the Oscar 5.
Best Supporting Actor – that could be the Oscar 5.
Best Supporting Actress – I don’t think Beale Street has been seen far & wide, yet. AMPAS will likely bite. King is an enormous snub. But. Take out Blunt, add in King and THAT could be the Oscar 5 – no Kidman, no Foy … but Robbie. I think Adams takes the huge lead, here.
One note on Blunt: GG nom (possible win), 2(!) BFCA noms, (2!) SAG noms, likely BAFTA nominee and she’ll contend against Colman …….
2 SMASH hits in 2018. Blunt is having one hell of a year. Wonder if it means something come Oscar night.
I’d say Washington gets in for Best Actor. If his father can manage a nomination for Roman J. Israel, then I’m certain the support will get behind him. Especially if BlacKkKlansman is going to be featured heavily.
I’ve been saying it the whole year so I still stand by Washington not making it. I’m fact, I’ll double down.
I’m gonna focus on something that I haven’t seen many mention yet, and that is the impact this has on Roma. Remember, Roma was pretty much the frontrunner after all the Critics awards, and despite still having to overcome some obstacles (first foreign language film) it looked like it could still win Best Pic. But now that it failed to land a single SAG nomination, I think it has no chance. For one, even though A Shape of Water broke the stat that Best Pic needed to be nominated for SAG Ensemble, Shape still managed to get two individual nominations for Actress and Supporting Actor. So with that in mind, if Roma wins Best Pic, it would be the first to do this without any SAG nom since Braveheart.
Second, even without a standout performance in the film that deserved an individual nomination, if the film was loved by the SAG, they could’ve still given it the Ensemble nom. As you see, there are two films this year nominated in Ensemble that don’t have any individual noms. And looking back over the whole SAG history, they have nominated many other films for Ensemble and not for any other categories. These are:
How to Make an American Quilt, Get Shorty
The Full Monty*
Moulin Rouge
LOTR: TTT, Big Fat Greek Wedding
LOTR: ROTK*, In America
Hustle and Flow
Bobby
3:10 to Yuma, Hairspray
Midnight In Paris
Grand Budapest Hotel
Straight Outta Compton
And in the case of Full Monty and LOTR:ROTK, they actually won the Ensemble award. So I see the lack of Roma here as a big red flag.
The question is, how many cast members of “Roma” are SAG affiliated. Probably not enough or even none.
I see where you are going with that but it doesn’t matter what their eligibility is, it still goes against the stats no matter the reason. Same with not being nominated for either of the Golden Globe Best Pictures. If I’m not mistaken, as far back as I can remember no Best Pic winner was not nominated for the Golden Globe as well. So like I said, it’s fighting history on multiple fronts.
You do realise that foreign language films aren’t eligible for competing in either of the main Comedy/Musical or Drama Picture categories at the Globes?
I didn’t know that for sure but figured it must be since they said Roma was ineligible. So I guess in essence this stat is just an anendum to the “no foreign language film has won Best Pic Oscar” one.
That’s not the question, actually. How many of Rubina Ali, Tanay Chheda, Ashutosh Lobo Gajiwala, Azharuddin Mohammed Ismail, Anil Kapoor, Irrfan Khan, Ayush Mahesh Khedekar, Tanvi Ganesh Lonkar, Madhur Mittal, Dev Patel, and Freida Pinto do you think were SAG affiliated when they won the Ensemble prize for Slumdog Millionaire? Or Abraham Attah and Kurt Egyiawan when they were nominated for Beasts Of No Nation? SAG has nominated largely unknown foreign casts before.
Slumdog Millionaire is the exact opposite of Roma anyway. That’s an uplifting, feel-good story about a boy making it out of the slums and winning the love of his life. It was the American Dream viewed from a British-Indian perspective. It was in English, it had upbeat music, it had flashy cinematography. It was an instant winner.
Roma was never a real contender, let alone a frontrunner. It was the frontrunner for Director but with BlacKkKlansman’s resurgence and ASIB’s expected performance, even that is on shaky ground.
Roma is still the clear frontrunner for BD. I mean Cuarón is the only mexican director in the race.
Hell, they nominated Slumdog Millionaire cast for Best Ensemble even though most of the actors were virtual unknowns here in the United States. Dev Patel even got an individual nomination for Supporting Actor. Roma has no such leg to stand on.
Interesting observations!
I know I sound too happy for Blackklansman, that’s because I am so glad for that cast, Driver and Washington. But also because among the nominees and the competition, it’s the movie that had to come a long way to get in, in my opinion. This year they went for “more popular” films vs. “more serious” films. Blackkklansman is the exception among the 5.
What’s super annoying about the Ensemble nomination for BlacKkKlansman is that the Finnish actor (how the hell did they find him???) who plays the creepy violent Klansman doesn’t get a mention. He’s the best in the cast.
I usually don’t understand the lists for sag ensemble. Last year Get Out’s list was very confusing to me
Its about the credits or some BS I am pretty sure so it comes down to what you negotiated to get in your contract (which means newer actors who are just happy to be there are less likely to get it).
I think it has to do with how you are billed in the opening credits. If you are billed along with two other people on screen for example, you don’t get listed.
Exactly. I found that very annoying as well, when I was reading the list of nominees…
I think rather than more popular the big thing is more widely seen – all 5 ensemble nominees went into wide release at least a month ago and have played a lot throughout the US so everyone voting has definitely seen them all.
Ensemble is just so sad … but last year two films didn’t get nominated so it should be the same again with Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians.
Actor: As expected, Bale, Cooper, Mortensen and Malek are locked. And now it’s the battle with Washington, Hawke and Dafoe for the 5th spot. They usually miss one. It’s frustrating that Washington is getting recognized over Ethan and Willem but I’m hoping BAFTA will correct this mistake.
Actress: I think those are the 5, unless Yalitza Aparicio or (fingers crossed) Toni Collette can surprise.
Supporting Actor: I’m so thrilled for Chalamet to get nominated. Ali, Driver, Elliott and Grant are locked. I think Chalamet should be the 5th spot but who knows. I still think Rockwell might surprise, or Jordan.
Supporting Actress: Beyond thrilled for Margot Robbie – the best nomination of the day!! What a performance. Adams, Weisz and Stone are locked. And then King. And then such a tough one between Kidman, Foy and Robbie for the 5th spot.
Crazy Rich Asians, Bohemian Rhapsody AND Black Panther over The Favourite?
What is this garbage?
Ridiculous …
I know!!! What were they thinking!!! How in the whole universe they might think BR or CRA had a better ensemble than The Favourite ? Or VICE? Or Green Book ? Geez! Even Mary Poppins Returns
I kind of get the ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ and ‘Black Panther’ love, because they are successful movies which rely on an ensemble cast over one or two powerhouse central performances, however ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ makes no sense, especially compared to something like ‘Widows’, which I can’t say I loved, but was a true ensemble.
Me venting my frustration at awards season. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4659b6b0f98c0d24849fea254ba03ce3fe2347c270a853db8c26f1175f09d86.gif