The time between right now and after the new year is the most crucial time frame in the entire Oscar race, almost even more than the days of marking nomination ballots. If you think about the Oscar race as a fertility cycle, you know that there are only a couple of weeks when pregnancy can occur. Well, that’s what the next two weeks are. Sure, people will be away from work, planning and enjoying the holiday break, but the publicists and bloggers will be in overdrive, hyping, cajoling, pleading that the films they love best are recognized. For publicists, they know that if they haven’t gotten industry voters into screenings (those who live in LA and NYC) then they have to rely on screeners to close the deal. And, as we all know, some films play better on the big screen, some play better on screener. What the whole screener thing does is make a smaller, independent film suddenly get a lot bigger, and a big expansive cinematic movie get a lot smaller. In both cases, the film still has to work, even without – especially without – the dazzling visuals.
If you’ve ever gathered your family around the flat screen over the holidays, you know that films are chosen by committee. You have to mostly try to satisfy everyone and everyone has different tastes. You have to make a pitch about which movies you think the crowd is going to enjoy. If you really love a movie, it can test your patience to watch it with your friends and family who might not like it. Are they so bored they’re looking at their phones or computers? Are they riveted? Are they laughing at the wrong parts? Are they critiquing the movie before it’s even begun?
How you watch movies with other people often influences how you judge a movie. That’s why when you see movies at festivals you are riding that festival high of being there first, sitting among people who love the movie as much as you do. Similarly, if you’re watching a movie with someone who is fidgeting or falling asleep next to you, or worse – a stone faced group of critics who are taking notes and not responding emotionally to what they’re watching – you’re going to think differently about that movie. Humans, by nature, want to feel that sense of belonging.
It’s never easy to know for sure which films voters will want to watch, which films they’ll feel obligated to watch, and which films they just can’t bring themselves to watch for whatever reason. What critics awards can do, what FYC ads can do, what “buzz” – manufactured or real – can do is push a film to the top of the screener pile. I’m sure after people heard that Bohemian Rhapsody made so much money at the box office and was a big surprise nominee in SAG ensemble, that made a lot of people who might have been reluctant a little more willing to put it in, especially knowing it’s already a crowdpleaser.
There are films where it won’t matter because voters will have already seen them in the theater – like A Star is Born. Then they will rewatch them with their families who will no doubt want to watch the bigger titles with the bigger stars. That can sometimes also dampen perception of a film. Is it as good the second time through? The best movies always are, but some must be seen once and once only. Any scrutiny on them might cause a voter to think, hmm, that wasn’t so good after all, I guess.
What might prevent people from watching a movie? If they think it’s too depressing or grim to watch over the holidays. While that’s always true, it’s especially true now. Now is not the time for “gritty realism.” It is most definitely the time for escapism, fantasy, and happy endings.
Write up a list of which films you think will play well on screener and which won’t. But it can be tricky. For instance, I think First Man will play better on screener than it does on the big screen. No, you can’t see the enormity of the cool space shots but the core of the story is on a more intimate level and once it’s all shrunk down I think it will play – but I guess we’ll see if that’s right or not. Roma is a film that will play fine on screener but is much, much better seen in a theater, on the big screen. There is so much detail that you really have to focus on it to get it all. There aren’t many movies made now with THAT much condensed detail.
Black Panther is most definitely a film that should be seen on the big screen but I’ve seen it a few times on streaming and it plays. BlacKkKlansman will be fine on screener, as will Green Book. Mary Poppins Returns is probably better on the big screen, and I’d wager A Star is Born also benefits from the theatrical experience. Also probably true of Bohemian Rhapsody.
That’s your mission, should you choose to accept it. It might hold the key to how this whole crazy race will turn out.
Best Picture
What do we know now that we didn’t know before? We know that people really like A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther. Or if they don’t like them, they are hoping to make the Oscars relevant again by supporting them. And that should be enough to give Black Panther the extra support it needs to crack the top nine. Can it also get directing and writing nominations? It seems like they also really like Green Book and BlacKkKlansman. Wild cards remain but we assume that the superior quality of Roma will prevail, and we don’t yet know the fate of films like The Favourite, Vice, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Reformed, Mary Poppins Returns, Eighth Grade, and above all, First Man. We know stuff. We don’t know stuff. We have to be comfortable with that.
Here is the ranking by how we value rankings. With a grain of salt, of course.
A Star is Born – SAG ensemble, Globes Picture+Director
Green Book – Globes Picture + Director + Screenplay
Vice -Globes Picture, Director+Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman – SAG ensemble, Globes Picture+Director
Bohemian Rhapsody – SAG ensemble, Globes Picture
Black Panther – SAG ensemble, Globes Picture
Roma – Globes director
The Favourite – Globes Picture, Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk – Globes Picture+Screenplay
That’s nine right there. Pushing through these nine might be:
First Reformed
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
8th Grade
What decides a Best Picture nomination? PASSION. What decides a winner? General likability + passion. Which of these will inspire passion and which ones won’t?
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice-Globes+SAG
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born-Globes+SAG
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book-Globes+SAG
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody-Globes+SAG
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman-SAG
Wild cards:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate-Globes
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born-Globes+SAG
Glenn Close, The Wife-Globes+SAG
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me-Globes+SAG
Olivia Colman, The Favourite-Globes-Globes+SAG
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns-Globes-Globes+SAG
Longer shots:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer-Globes
Rosamund Pike, A Private War-Globes
Charlize Theron, Tully-Globes
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade-Globes
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Viola Davis, Widows
Julia Roberts, Ben is Back
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book-Globes+SAG
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me -Globes+SAG
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy-Globes+SAG
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman-Globes+SAG
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born-SAG
Contenders:
Sam Rockwell, Vice-Globes
Michael B. Jordan
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice -Globes+SAG
Emma Stone, The Favourite -Globes+SAG
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite -Globes+SAG
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk-Globes
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots-SAG
Longer shots:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place-SAG
Claire Foy, First Man-Globes
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma-Globes
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born-Globes
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman-Globes
Peter Farrelly, Green Book-Globes
Adam McKay, Vice-Globes
Contenders
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Original Screenplay
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron-Globes
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara-Globes
Vice, Adam McKay-Globes
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly-Globes
Contenders:
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, John Krasinski – A Quiet Place
Ben is Back, Peter Hedges
Sorry to Bother You, Boots Riley
Tully, Diablo Cody
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins-Globes
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
First Man, Josh Singer
Contenders
Leave No Trace, Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Widows, Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen
The Front Runner, Matt Bai, Jay Carson, Jason Reitman
Boy Erased, Joel Edgerton
Cinematography
Roma
A Star is Born
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Editing
Roma
A Star is Born
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Contenders
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Production Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
First Man
Sound Editing
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
A Quiet Place
Costume Design
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Ready Player One
Original Score
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
First Man
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Song
Shallow – A Star is Born
I’ll Fight from RBG – Diane Warren
Girl in the Movies
Requiem for a Private War
Trip a Little Light Fantastic
Makeup and Hair
The Favourite
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Minding the Gap
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Quincy
Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
And away we go. Next up after Christmas – PGA, DGA!
