The only real difference between film critics now and film critics when I first started covering the Oscars is that the critics themselves have become a kind of club, their own consensus where some films thrive and others don’t. They’re always promoting the same films because they are, more or less, the same people. Even if they weren’t, they’re still boosting the same films. It sort of blew my mind in 2016 when I read about how polling works. If you take a random sample of 1000 people you can pretty much guarantee agreement, give or take, based on whether or not those people live similar lives and lifestyles. That’s true of critics, or Film Twitter. Even if their lives weren’t similar (though they mostly seem to be), they would lean towards agreeing because agreeing puts you in the club. Of course, if you’re one of the high status types, you can slip in and out of the consensus because you mostly LEAD the consensus.
Voters in the film industry, however, might be similar to the critics in that they too have their own sort of club, and/or you can sample them to figure out which films they will all like best. We got a glimpse of it with the SAG ensemble nominations. We’ll get an even better glimpse in early January, when the PGA and DGA speak. We know because we’ve been doing this for 20 years and that these choices remain frozen in time. When you look back on them in a year, in five years, and in ten years, you see that all the more clearly. You know that predicting the Oscars isn’t now, nor has it ever been, about the best. We know that time decides that. Film awards, even critics awards, don’t.
We know that the Oscars are at a crossroads. They have essentially three options for Best Picture, as far as I can tell. The first is Roma. Alfonso Cuaron’s masterpiece, which has the stamp of approval from the critics and President Obama, is the kind of film that makes the statement: we believe in cinema as art. Full stop. Money doesn’t matter in the presence of greatness. Ah, but there’s a catch. And that catch is kind of like the price tag stuck to the otherwise perfect dress. It’s a Netflix release. Everyone knows this. They must go to war with themselves, their expectations, and how they define what the Oscars themselves mean. To choose Netflix is to choose an uncompromising vision for what cinema is capable of. No stars. No profit. No hashtag popularity. No toy tie-in, no sequel, no source material, no pre-awareness — just pure, raw, brilliant art. It flies in the face of every way the Academy has rewarded studio fare for the past 90 years. Roma is a great preferential ballot pick because it should get both the passion vote and the “I liked it but it’s not my number one” vote. They will want to reward it no matter what. What will the voters do?
We know that they have the choice of another path. To go all in with Big Hollywood, the undeniable future of movies in theaters. No one is going to wait for Black Panther to hit streaming platforms. That is a movie theater movie, to the tune of 700 million domestic. It joins other movies people turned out and paid to see because they couldn’t wait: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, A Quiet Place, maybe eventually Mary Poppins Returns. These are the “popular” movies that would have been in their own category if the Academy had made their move in that direction. Instead, the awards industry, critics, and bloggers have fully embraced them as best, no compromise necessary. Popular movies ARE good movies! We’re not a dying industry! We live!
In truth, we’re not really talking about all of these movies. We’re really only talking about two for the win (unless we all get a massive surprise when the PGA announces): A Star Is Born and Black Panther. Increasingly, Black Panther appears to be the one gaining momentum. But here’s the catch, and it too stands out like a price tag dangling suspiciously on the back of a new dress: Black Panther is a superhero movie. It’s part of the Marvel universe — you know, the Avengers? You know, the reason Birdman won? Birdman was a vocally anti-superhero movie no matter how many superhero fans try to say otherwise. It won because the industry stood in unity to protest the coming storm. What will the voters do?
Black Panther is a pretty good preferential ballot pick. It COULD get number one votes, depending on how the next month goes. It could also get pushed up the ballot for people who wouldn’t choose it as number one. A Star Is Born is likely a passion choice if it’s anything. It is the kind of film that really needs to win on the first round of voting, which it might. Preferential ballot choices need to be movies people love and don’t hate. That is why both Roma and Black Panther look to be safe choices. Nobody hates them: even more than that, no one could ever, would ever criticize either of them.
I started out this year thinking Black Panther would not even make the cut, but the more the season wears on, it is looking like it has a better than average shot not just to be nominated but to win. Of course, all of this is nothing but a vague guess based on energy and buzz — it could be totally wrong. Ryan Coogler missing out on a DGA nod would be an indicator that it’s a no. That is the one to watch, I figure. If they pick that movie they choose their destiny. Superhero movies will flourish both in the industry awards and in the industry.
What we don’t yet know is which they will resist more — Netflix/streaming vs. superhero franchise. Two existential threats to the status quo. In this case, it is quite possible that at the end of the day money makes the difference. Money, after all, pays all of them. Superhero movies are still movies, and that means they all still have jobs; even if they don’t respect the genre, they still need to work. Pure art must come secondary out of necessity.
The preferential ballot favors passion choices for nominations, because there are only three rounds of voting. For wins, passion matters but so does broad support. Passion could get movies like Vice, or even First Man, or Eighth Grade through.
We will find out soon enough when the Producers Guild announces their top ten of the year. Roma, Black Panther, and A Star is Born will be on that list. Probably also The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Eighth Grade, Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place. First Man should be on the list but it’s been shunned because of… money. Money changes everything.
Here are this week’s predictions. There are no frontrunners in any category at the moment. We just have to guess at this point.
Best Picture
Black Panther or Roma or A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
Eighth Grade
First Man
Right on the edge:
If Beale Street Could Talk
First Reformed
Mary Poppins Returns
Still possible:
A Quiet Place
Can You Ever Forgive Me
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Right on the edge:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Right on the edge:
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Viola Davis, Widows
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Right on the edge:
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Michael B. Jordan. Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Right on the edge:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Right on the edge:
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Adam McKay, Vice
Damien Chazelle, First Man
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Original Screenplay
First Reformed — Paul Schrader
Green Book — Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma — Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite — Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Vice — Adam McKay
Right on the edge:
Eighth Grade — Bo Burnham
Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
A Star Is Born — Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Black Panther — Ryan Coogler
Right on the edge:
First Man — Josh Singer
Widows — Gillian Flynn, Steve McQueen
Cinematography
Roma
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
The Favourite
Editing
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Production Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Crazy Rich Asians
Green Book
The Front Runner
Can You Ever Forgive Me
BlacKkKlansman
Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
A Quiet Place
Sound Editing
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
Costume Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Original Score
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Song
“Shallow” — A Star Is Born
“I’ll Fight” — RBG
“Girl in the Movies” — Dumplin’
“Revelation” — Boy Erased
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” — Mary Poppins Returns
Makeup and Hair
Black Panther
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Minding the Gap
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year @disqus_XeR5lOSBTf:disqus! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c35772ae52c0b2338f2bfd9333981837cf449cfa641a40261691e8c8c7917e4c.gif
Even IF Star is born does eventually win from now on in coverage through awards s
Daily I gonna emphasise films I love to contend and really train myself focus on that than negativitivy Oscars bring for most of us are concerned year on year. It most constructive way as we bring in 2019 happy new year to all !! In health happiness well wishes ( despite fact most u choices film won’t be recognised win best PIC award at Oscars.)
So as it new year and I very confident reflecting most of u attitudes and the trend of the growing backlash (reflected from poor ratings crashing all time lows for awards season), time I change tack talk more bout films I strongly believe deserve to win way more than Oscars cyclical cynical self-sabotaging choices . boy I admit task set myself going forward from now on be hard but I give it go.
Starting next post sing praise black panther ( which fittingly I chosen as first blu- ray movie watch right after new years last night) and when I see it Mary Poppins returns .
If you go by recent trends and what’s on the PLATE this year …
If it’s not ASIB that’s going to win BP, I really think it would be Blackkkansman with a sliiiiiiight chance of Black Panther (as the, SEE, we’re hip and honor blockbusters choice).
But Blackkklansman does have so much going for it:
Did decent at the box office; that doesn’t hurt. It’s a relatively easy watch. It has a “cool” factor. There’s a little bit of a Denzel factor. Spike Lee finally winning. Diverse cast. Stellar acting. Period design. Humor. Drama. It’s ABOUT something. Powerful ending.
It’s been over-performing this season, while staying out of the “front-runner” position. Will probably get PGA/DGA/Guilds.
And it might be one of the few big contenders to get Director/Acting/Screenplay, even Editing Oscar noms. It could be the primary 1,2,3 on ballots. More importantly, it likely won’t have many ballots near the bottom, like every other contender likely will for one reason or another.
All I’m saying is, it has all the ingredients. It has Spotlight-ish ingredients; maybe even a little more.
I’m rooting for The Favourite to nab Best Picture.
I’m not a fan of biopics, but that movie is so different than your typical period piece/biopic, and the performances are so fantastic, I can’t help but root for that film. I think it will hold up well over the years.
The script is witty – “Did you just look at me? Did you?! Look at me! Close your eyes!” or “You look like a badger.”
Colman, Weisz, and Stone are so good, it can be easy to miss just how great the guys are, particularly Nicolaus Hoult. He should be considered for Supporting Actor.
I think what’s holding The Favourite back are a) it’s ending. And b) the fact that it’s ending – which I, and many love – is polarizing enough that it would turn-off some voters, as it has turned off many audiences.
If The Favourite were to win BP, I think the people who decided to then watch it would be disappointed that a “Best Picture” ended as such. As it is, people are going to the theaters to see it aplenty. Box office is good. That doesn’t mean that they’re leaving the theater having had an overwhelmingly positive reaction. If you go by these barometers that are set-up nowadays, these exit polls (CinemaScore, RT user reviews, and other such things) you’ll see that people are not loving it when walking out of the theater.
Let me give an example. I have a good friend who is a movie buff and an anglophile. She couldn’t wait to see The Favourite. But despite finding it humorous in spots, HATED the ending and told me “I didn’t like it ……. it was WEIRD”. She then saw Mary Queen Of Scots and, because everything is spoon-fed in that movie and big, bold, pretty, historical, and accessible … she loved it … it wasn’t WEIRD. She saw it twice. I love this friend dearly, but she is exactly why I fear for The Favourite on a preferential ballot and with most audiences; even those with an affinity for period costume dramas.
Other than that: the film is great, LOL. It could get multiple wins on the night, leading to a BP win (though, that is very tough on a preferential ballot based on what I wrote about above). But The Favourite would certainly be a worthy winner for those audiences who love what The Favourite achieved.
I thought the ending was finger lickin’ good!
What ending exactly do you mean? The ending of the story (where the characters end up), the ending shot, or what?
I would say the final 3 minutes or so. The constant back and forth closeups and the rabbits. It’s a redundant 3 minutes (even though the variety of emotions on display can be potent to patient viewers) and the kind of ending where you have to come up with your own interpretation. General audiences want their spoon-fed endings.
I wonder what percentage of the population appreciated that the tedious task of tending to Queen Anne is not what Abigail wanted? Or that Abigail isn’t what Queen Anne needs? And Sarah’s fireplace farewell was, in fact, true? There’s a popular appeal to Emma Stone that will attract a lot of movie-goers, in a manner thats similar to Jennifer Lawrence’s fans not really liking mother!.
Maybe?
I thought the ending was brilliant.
I wish All About Eve and Sunset Boulevard could get regular remakes with different casts and contexts like A Star Is Born.
Okay, hear me out
Gaga as Norma Desmond
Cooper as Joe Gillis
Gaga and Cooper can do a whole series of remakes of classics in which he always ends up dead.
What about another Psycho remake with Gaga playing the Janet Leigh part? Of course Cooper would play Norman and… ((huge SPOILER ALERT)… his mother! 😉
Or maybe a remake of “Being John Malkovich” called “Being Lady Gaga” with Cooper and his followers colonizing Lady Gagas psyche?!
I’m thinking either Gaga as Barbara Stanwyck and Cooper as Fred McMurray in Double Indemnity, or Gaga as Lana Turner and Cooper as John Garfield in The Postman Always Rings Twice. Gaga could do a 40s noir evil bitch very well.
Gaga as Eve and Margo. We know she can do two personas! Cooper as Addisson. Jeez… it will also be a dream come true for Gaga if she gonna play the cameo of Marilyn Monroe! Make this happen! ASAP!
You know what I’d love, a straight up, exact re-creation of a classic (like an All About Eve or Sunset Boulevard or Casablanca or Rebecca or Inherit the Wind or whatever!).
A re-creation with the same type of camera, grainy black-&-white/or Technicolor, sets, costumes, script, editing choices, even ACTING styles, etc. I think it would be fascinating to see how and who could pull that off.
I don’t believe that has ever been done and, awards prospects aside, I think it sould be fascinating to watch.
That sounds awesome!…
Definitely!
One of the reasons why I’m skeptical about ASIB winning BP is because quality-wise, it’s not really the Academy’s cup of tea lately. You see for the past few years, the Academy has been picking auteur-driven films that were has relevant of the times: TSOW, Moonlight, Spotlight, Birdman, 12YAS, Argo, The Artist, TKS, THL. ASIB just doesn’t fit this list. They didn’t went for the likes of The Blind Side, The Help, SLP, American Sniper, The Martian, Hidden Figures. So yeah, it might be another sublime piece of cinema that wins BP this year and it’s looking like Roma or Blackkklansman or The Favourite, though Lanthimos proves to still be a polarising filmmaker so it might be a factor. Without the maligned backlash, First Man would definitely fit this mold but we’re now in a conversation where Bohemian Rhapsody is also being considered for a BP nom so…
To be fair, The King’s Speech, Argo and Spotlight are not that much unlike A Star is Born. Popular, safe, relatively conventional.
I don’t think they’re conventional. TKS for abfact has inconconventional shots that irrated many conventional viewers. But it was true to Hooper’s aesthetics as a filmmaker. The only similarity of Argo and ASIB is that both directors are actors but Affleck is best behind the camera. It’s also a thrilling studio film. Spotlight is a film of social disobedience. A perfect example of timeless yet contemporary film that challenges its audience. Also these three films have and were well-written screenplays while ASIB is not.
Come on. TKS is as conventional Oscar-bait as they come. One of the worst winners of the century
What’s conventional/convenient is how easy it is to say that TKS is such but there is so much more beyond the surface of being a period piece/biopic/ royal drama. It’s as auteur-driven as TSN (I’m not a fan tho) and Black Swan. Being old-school was one of its intricately concieved layers as it added so much to its milleu. For me (at the very least, I know I’m in the minority), it works as a deep character study on human relationships with complex layers of characterization and performances from the lead cast. Other directors would have easily made it as a sort of a boring and lackluster production, but Hooper knew how to bring out the best from his actors and the visual language was original and striking (love it or hate it). Also having 88 MC score also invalidates it being one of the winners of the century.
Most people (including me) agree that it’s a good film. Some might even say very good. But it’s a very good conventional period drama. Conventional is not a bad word, everything that you said about the film can still hold true. A conventional film doesn’t necessarily have to be shallow, boring, bad.
Everything about TKS was fundamentally conventional, except the few odd camera angles, which Tom Hooper appeared to think made him an artist. The story itself, the way it was told, the safe attitudes, all of these things were utterly conventional. That does not necessarily mean it was bad — just that it was not a very original or challenging piece of art. That’s of course the very reason why it was popular.
Trends come & go. This year could be the King’s Speech comfy, cozy win type of year. By the way, I love comfy, cozy.
But I agree, as of late, a certain type of winner prevails. Having said that, the Academy feels the pressure now more than ever to make changes and we could see that in this year’s winner(s).
We’ll see….. but Sean Baker thinks the Academy will eat it up. He wrote “If I was a betting man, I’d put all my chips on this film sweeping this awards season.”
Hey, just saw Green Book, and it’s enjoyable but nothing special. Nobody here should be winning an acting Oscar much less his second one in 3 years (after winning for such a small role). I don’t say this because I am ultra-PC or have non-mainstream taste, but because the film is pat and nothing special. I’d also rather Vice win the Globe (sight-unseen) if The Favourite, a far superior film, is out of contention due to the unjust directing snub. (Time to review the Globe stats for a winning comedy/musical without a nominated director.) But mark my words, Richard E. Grant will probably win the Oscar. Or Ali only wins because we can’t have four white acting winners.
Vice was a hot mess. Somewhat entertaining in spurts. Agitating in others. Bale was excellent, though. Green Book is the superior film.
Then The Favourite should still win.
It “should”.
Right, should, but probably won’t. Actually I’m shocked. It’s European. Vice and Green Book are American stories. Especially Vice when they didn’t go for The Big Short over The Martian. So Green Book will win Driving Miss Daisy style. I don’t have huge problems with the movie but think it’s forgettable next to some of the other Oscar fare and crowdpleasers of the year.
The humour was adolescent, frat boy level humour, both obvious and unsubtle. Cheney compliments Bush, cut to freeze frame of Bush with food hanging out of his mouth. Cheney pulls the levers of power in some evil manouevre, cut to image of fish hook. Get it? Etc. etc. etc.
So, about Burning. It might be a glorious masterpiece but it also might be utter nonsense. I will probably need several rewatches to make sense of most of it and finally place it on that spectrum.
If you don’t mind, I’d love to hear why you think the latter is an option
I got some of the ideas that he tried to convey through the film. How the two men contrasted in terms of social class, looks, personality, etc. About burning stuff because you can vs. tending to them because you have to. I would say I got the basis of the story. But the problem is there were a lot of scenes that (I imagine) were conveying some subtext, but I very often couldn’t decode what the subtext was, or if I could (or thought that I did) I couldn’t fit it into the whole film. The majority of scenes felt like they were only there to say something but failed to do so, at least for me on the first go. At other times, it was just made so ambiguously that you really could think one thing or the opposite, which didn’t help me at all, especially because there weren’t (or I couldn’t find any) coherent “sets of interpretation”, by which I mean several ambiguous things interpreted in a specific way assembling into one whole. Perhaps I was overwhelmed and it will all fall into place on repeat viewings, or maybe I’m just too dumb for this (an irrefutable argument really), but right now the positive thing that I can say about it is it kept me intrigued after leaving the theatre (a rare thing that instantly catapults it into the set of better films I saw this year, at least for now). However, I am so grateful for the dance scene. It felt like a remake of Y Tu Mamá Tambien’s tequila scene.
I’ve never really looked at it quite like that (I guess to me it’s always been such an internally focalised film that I’ve found meaning in them through that). Thank you for bringing this up, I’ll have to think about it
Honestly, I have a feeling that ASIB is not winning this and we will face the scenario of the “underdog” – If “Roma”, the “undeniable” choice doesn’t win – We have many possibilities:
1 – “Roma” wins. Some are saying it is the “Schindler’s List” of the year. Many Academy Members publically declared vote for it like Toni Colette and Guilhermo Del Toro. It is important. Think about the Trump’s wall with Mexico and the immigrants situation. If Cuaron starts making speeches in this sense, I think it is a done deal.
2 – “Green Book” wins. Think about a “Chariots of Fire” situation. Many will not say they are voting for it, but in fact, they are. It is important. Make us feel good. It is produced by Octavia Spencer. It is a period piece and represents “the old Academy”. Can be a ‘protest vote” too against all this changes in the Oscar telecast and the gethozied categories.
3 – “The Favourite” wins. A very possible scenario (and it would be very nice, wonderful). It will have basically all the contingent of the British and International Academy on its side. It is an actors-actors film and will do well with technical guilds. It will score many 1, 2 and 3 votes in the preferential ballot. It is about Women in the “Me Too” era.
4 – “BlackKksman” wins. It would be an “Argo” situation all over again. The director’s narrative would conduct the film’s victory. Also, it is important, artistic, has a decent box office at the same time and is doing well with critics and guilds.
5 – “If Beale Street Could Talk” wins. It could be the vote of the independent cinema vs the blockbusters.
6 – “Mary Poppins” or “Vice” – really underdogs. But I have a feeling many Academy Members will try to avoid ASIB victory, so, they can choose wild choices. (think about “Crash”)
Plus a LOT of male voters will probably not vote for it considering how some mentioned it as the movie which “captured the zeitgeist of female ascendancy and male irrelevancy”.
7 – “Black Panther” wins. Populism in the Academy reaches its logical extreme, people lose their shit, some within the industry welcome it, some backlash occurs, people debate the role of the Academy.
You’re over thinking it ;There is a simpler solution , ASIB just wins
I don’t think Roma will catch on quite so strongly. I saw it recently, and I felt it was Cauron’s worst film in two decades, rather generic, obnoxious mismatch of director style and the story being told, and felt like I’d seen this thing all before. Even among 2010s semi-autobiographical household maid films, something like Ilo Ilo wipes the floor with it.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s better than the two contenders mentioned here, but it would be my least outstanding Best Picture since The Artist.
Hopefully something else such as The Favourite can rescue us by building some momentum.
Although I thought Roma was a striking visual creation, I thought it failed in depicting Cleo as just another saintly, nobly suffering poor person without any real identity or opportunity of individual expression. It failed in giving virtually no political or cultural context to her life and to the situation she (and by implication many others) found herself in. And it failed in depicting the Corpus Christi massacre and the political situation in Mexico in 1970 as wallpaper, without any real meaning or significance, only to set up one laughably implausible scene.
Excellently summed up! I agree 100%.
Oh lawd where to begin. Saw Mary poppins.. not impressed. Maybe best costumes? Yeah I’m gonna predict that 5th slot still for Colette or Aparicio. And that’s all ill say about that. Then I drove my ass 20 miles to see beale street. Amazing how packed the theater was at 1:15.. perhaps it’s time to expand? Anyway I know the backstory of James Baldwin and his novels so I wasn’t expecting happy tales… thought the score and costumes were fantastic. If out misses best picture… I won’t be upset. As for Regina king.. she was decent… she did some solid work..but if she does walk away the winner. ..good for her…. and if she walks away the loser
.. Then I can’t say ill be outraged. I need to see green book or the favourite next
We thought the Academy was sending a message that it was tired of superheroes, franchises and remakes by awarding “Birdman” Best Picture. Yet here we are four years later with a FOURTH time remake (ASIB) and a superhero film (Black Panther) leading the field. Very weird! Originality and creativity are dead when it comes to films by major studios. This is where Netflix comes in. It is driving creativity by giving art house directors an opportunity they wouldn’t otherwise have. I think this is the future; in fact, I know it is the future. Cinephiles might not be happy about that but they shouldn’t blame Netflix for killing cinema. The fault lies with major studios who have put their lot with superhero crap-fest. And, of course, audiences for watching that crap-fest. And cinema is not really dead; it’s just that it now caters to crappy films.
Netflix is tremendous nowadays in terms of financing/distributing films, but I really really want them to keep making their films available in cinemas as well as Netflix (I don’t even mind if it’s same-day or something). I know it’s not their fault, but I’m terrified of cinemas or good films in cinemas going extinct.
If you love art house films you should more concerned with the fact the are struggle to get their films made or can’t find a distributor. It is crappy superheroes which are killing cinema. What’s point of cinemas if they only cater crap-fest superhero films?
As an ardent capitalist, it pains me to write this but this is when the market fails and the much hated state aid comes in.
SAM ROCKWELL IN AND SAM ELLIOT OUT WHAT HORSESHIT IS THAT
Not even deigning to list Yalitza Aparicio when such non-entities in the race as Felicity Jones are considered “right on the edge” is just ridiculous.
Yes as I said below, the right on the edge Best Actress list is silly.
I think the 5 are safe, no one is right on the edge. If anyone has an outside shot, I’d say Aparicio or Collete.
Jones has no hope in hell and is no where near the edge.
It’s Blunt in a walk. Everyone else is just fighting to be nominated
Mary Poppins Returns is reaching 100 millions dollars this week (its second week). It is on your own path to become the biggest box office for a (suposedly) Best Picture Nominated film this season. Where are the trolls here that called the film “a flop”? If A Star is Born with 200 Millions was called by some “the new Titanic”, what we could call “MPR”? The film is a big, big hit.
If nothing else, we won’t have to suffer #Oscarsowhite again.
end of the year, my personal top 10:
1. First Man
2. Blackkklansman
3. Eighth Grade
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. Roma
6. Mary Poppins Returns
7. Shoplifters
8. Love, Simon
9. A Quiet Place
10. The Favourite
…and my personal worst 3:
1. Happy as Lazzaro
2. Vice
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
Good lists
No words.
no it time spread load if there one of but few bright spots alarmingly few- to the academy it that they diversify who wins which creates fairness for individuals but if film following year after same director won Oscar in previous year and as producer too is receiving both outstanding critical and public acclaim shouldn’t they be entitled to be fierce contenders very least possible winner best picture ?
Surely debate on Alfonso cuaron the public cinema audiences whom care ( who remain to care bout academy choices ) would ask of critics and academy in their minds: ” if critics say it almost as good as previous film he won Oscars for shouldn’t he be seriously considered for another win what academy got to lose if it indeed unanimously is agreed it nearly as good as prior Oscar winner? Is it wring hypothetically to either award best director and picture back to back or within few years winning from each other ?”
So if it logic it “nearly as good” shouldn’t it be threat best picture deservedly so? Now I ask that as objective viewpoint.
The thing that deeply troubles me is not shallow unjust unfair race debate against Mexicans and Mr. Charon attitude to film ( which is outrageous and if I were Mexican reading some comments I be rightfully offended).
No the bigger issue for me no. Of other s ROMA winning best picture is legitimising of non- traditional film. On small screen – a direct threat to big screen experience that academy think twice before endorsing here.
Unless they given up on what they championed since their foundation it doesn’t matter the prominence of digital portable mobile small screen technology academy one principle must not change for long time is it was founded born of inspiration from big screen format calk me ignorant I don’t care I suspect I not alone here in my view but sorry ” Netflix” may be evolution of Hollywood but academy have duty of care and responsibility to uphold that which gives academy purpose above all else big screen experience on a big screen not big screen experience on small screen. Are academy gonna commit worst form sabotage on their award shows in symbolism and abandoning their core principles ?
Public rightfully wonder :*with such a radical abandoning of the academy founding principle, how I’s a big screen experience on small personal screen able leapfrog film. Genre that been around that deserve far more recognition sooner well before films of calibre ” Roma”?
If this film get nomination that enough recognition academy needa repair their tattered reputation in public eye before embracing film of this format . for this reason while star is born deeply overrated I against ROMA winning at this stage in academy history . are academy suggesting maybe they i n process encouraging masses to abandon or minimise several decades of support to big screen in favour personal viewing experience ?
Finally regardless growing trend digital revolution simply not excuse for academy to as I fear if ROMA embraced use film as excuse to reboot entire academy’s guiding philosophy to best film from cinemas to home there far too much risk to Oscars fragile reputation in already turning their backs on true best film of year in public eye how Oscar would entertain ROMA purely for it format reasons regardless how grand awesome some may think it be I foresee red flags galore if Oscar do massive gamble.
No star is born not best film and worst choice in decade looming dripping in cleche, remade twice before it not unheard of that remake better by far then prior. But despite it total unoriginality it at least big screen experience.at cinemas Therefore my revamped rankings for what I prefer be best film from 1-8have altered and are:
My new no. 1 up from 2. Is
1. BLACK PANTHER this IS the future big screen immersive innovative, provocative powerful original the penultimate genre breakthrough that go long way to resuscitating the sputtering academy and getting public attention
2. Mary Poppins Returns unfortunately I worry it not getting public appeal I believe it deserves but it ambition in it achievement cannot be underestimated to me logical choice as alternative in my rankings now panther no.1 given risk that huge doing sequel to absolute brilliant classic
3. Vice ( I was truly wrong rate this bottom of rung up from 7)
4. Blackkklansman ( down 1. I fear it Oscar campaign is just jot seeming be as prominent that disappointing boy wish I saw it was not enough screens long enough in australia)
5. A private war ( new entry not sure whether made cut for this year Oscars but spotlight on pivotal dynamics portrayed in this film are very relevant in world warfare at range of levels)
6. The favourite ( down from 3 this years darker version of ” Shakespeare in love” and been done before been awarded before glad I learned bout it more since .
7. A star is born ( grossly overrated but it saving grace from being bottom of rung ( hence up 1 rank in light of my thoughts of Roma) is thankfully if as clearly doesn’t deserve to win it does ( something tells me such potent year thankfully I don’t think it destiny as Oscar winner is guaranteed by any stretch ) at least it does present itself on big screen
8. ROMA against it big time. Sorry Roma fans but if this is Oscars embrace they might as well reboot who they are what they stand for. It oy highlight total lack of faith in academy’s own guidivg principle and they be laughing stock by silent majority this film. For only this reason stays bottom .
You’re overthinking this, but if you invert your list you’ll be closer to the winner on Oscar night
Well in event I MIGHT by wrong least we see public standing would be far far removed from Oscars hypothetical choice. Right? Far over thinking my points are dead set relevant to debate
Imagine having a lineup of winners like The Artist, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, The Shape of Water and then a fourth remake of a classic. What an embarrassment.
A Star is Born is better than most of the titles you mentioned. It is a far better movie than The Shape of water and Birdman.
Sure.
A star is born is a classic in the sense it’s old. Honestly – even contemporaneously there were way better films being made about fame and tragic romance.
Exactly.
Like don’t get me wrong – I think the 2018 version is the best one. But it’s ultimately a good adaptation of a bad story.
I can see Yalitza Aparicio for ROMA popping into Best Actress as 5th slot at Oscars.
I just watched VICE too and think Sam Rockwell was great but think Sam Eilliot deserves the nomination for supporting actor more.
I do not dislike ASIB. In fact, I applaud what its trying to do and the work Cooper, Gaga and everyone else has to put into this film (I would not be that disappointed if it won). The problem is that I don’t really like it that much. I mean there is nothing in it for me to love or even respect. What is its real achievement? There are two things to recognise this film for: the work Cooper put has been immense and he should be recognised by winning lead actor as well as recognition for his previous nominations and to give an Oscar for Best Song to Gaga for a great performance in singing, not acting. That’s it really. The same goes for “Black Panther”. What exactly are the Academy recognising? It made a lot of money? nothing special about that as most Marvel movies do too and this one was heavily promoted. Same goes for Bohemian Rhapsody. Take out Freddy Mercury and Queen songs and I bet you it doesn’t make anywhere near the same amount of money. ASIB made lots of money because it was Gaga singing and the huge publicity it had. What do they all have in common? They all relied on recognisable brand names to sell. Superhero films sell and musical films of film with famous musician sell, too. If you want to celebrate true box office achievement, then “Crazy Rich Asians” is the stand out film of the year.
i would add the sound work on Star is Born is incredible. Nobody had captured what it sounds like to play on stage in that way although that is a combination of sound work and camera work. That’s extraordinary stuff. In fact my father who has spent decades in music was particularity impressed by that.
Well, the vocal performances sounded good so you’re probably right.
“ASIB made lots of money because it was Gaga singing and the huge publicity it had. What do they all have in common? They all relied on recognisable brand names to sell.”
Well obviously you’re not aware that Warner Bros actually vehemently rejected Cooper’s idea to cast Gaga because they thought her brand wasn’t robust enough to bring in strong BO numbers and wanted Beyonce instead. Hence Cooper won with a compromise to cast Gaga and significantly reduce the film’s budget.
Obviously you were under a rock when the internet was already claiming a star is born as the flop of the year and razzie winner as soon as the greenlit project was announced. “First time director with crazy lady gaga in a 4th remake” doesn’t exactly scream BO hit. It’s plain and simple that asib wouldn’t have been the juggernaut that it is if there wasn’t critical support behind it. To compare Queen’s brand with Gaga is laughable, Bohemian Rhapsody heavily relied on its brand. ASIB did the opposite, it relied on its quality. The success of ASIB lies solely in achievement of Gaga and Cooper’s talent and artistic collaboration. Whether you see it or not there was a tremendous amount of cynicism surrounding ASIB it was a risk for all involved and it paid off in dividends.
exactly! ASIB is not a masterpiece but its achievement should not be disparaged.
“ASIB made lots of money because it was Gaga singing and the huge publicity it had.”
Not to be rude to Gaga, but her Artpop, Cheek to Cheek, and Joanne albums were kind of flops. Gaga singing isn’t necessarily a big seller on its own.
Publicity can fade quickly, yet this film had a legs-heavy box office run. People wanted to see this movie because other people liked it and word of mouth spread.
I wasn’t saying that Gaga is responsible for the film making huge money but that it had publicity due her. Much more so than the fact had great critic scores. I mean, there are many great films which have great and even better scores than ASIB yet still struggle to make any money. ASIB is also a very well known property and people know immediately what it’s about. That name recognition and familiarity helps in these nostalgia filled era dominated by superheroes, franchises and remakes. “Crazy Rich Asians” doesn’t have any known property and had generated its money with little publicity. That’s big box office achievement of the year, imo.
Great article!
Let’s Think about history for a moment:
Gone with the wind, Titanic , massive box office and Oscar wins in their time.
Can you imagine looking back in 20 years time and saying,
‘ Oh that’s when an african american film made history in every way and paved a new path for entertainment’
I’m jumping on the Panther bandwagon! Why not?! Why not make history??
They never choose the best film anyway.
Then the academy can go back to movies nobody sees and or cares about next year.
They’ll get their highest ratings too.
Cuaron is a great film maker so he will make many more. And if (judging by the mensa members on this site) Bradley cooper and Lady goo goo are so phenomenally talented, they too will be able to have massive success in the future.
Think about it. 91 years and finally history is made.
It may just bring everyone closer together too. Maybe . BLACK PANTHER!!!
“I’m jumping on the Panther bandwagon! …They’ll get their highest ratings too.”
We see a lot of this confusing logic.
I’m not sure how awarding Best Picture to a movie in the final 5 minutes of the broadcast will result in the previous 3 hours getting the highest ratings.
But I’m trying not to get into any more swampy debates till 2019.
How would Black Panther make history?
Black Panther for cinematography?
If Ida snuck in 5 years ago, why is there no presumption Cold War will this year?
Because Roma will probably take some of its potential votes as a black and white foreign language “art” film.
But, will the Cinematographers in that branch nominate a first time feature film cameraman who is primarily a Director for the Award?
A lot of people thought the cinematographer’s branch might do that last year with Paul Thomas Anderson and Phantom thread — (I was one of those people) — but then they didn’t.
Somehow though, I have a gut feeling that people (people who love Roma) regard the multiple tasks that Cuaron has tackled as more of an organic tour de force.
I don’t know why it feels like a different situation than Phantom Thread — but to me it just does.
Maybe it’s because Phantom Thread was likely the 6th or 7th BP nominee. While Roma is likely going to be the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.
The math of that alone could be enough to give Curaon the edge to land in every category for which he’s eligible.
Possible. But, the Guild mentality is strong. I just have a hard time seeing them nominating an “outsider”
i agree about the boys club mentality.
Depends very much on which prominent insider names are on the cusp — in the 6th and 7th most likely positions.
But if I try to remember right now who those names may be, thinking too much about it will wake me up and I’m ready to go to sleep 🙂
So far, Best Picture seems so much to be going in collision course with A Star is Born… however, the best narrative to be crushing its dreams, is still BlackKklansman because of the obvious combo of the dueness for a Best Picture/Best Director combo for an African American director (a similar narrative that lead to The Hurt Locker winning that combo, by the way), and the anti-Trump feeling in Hollywood. Aside from this…
Vice – still looking too weak for being a viable Best Picture winner. But CAN win Best Picture, Make up, Supporting Actress and call it a day. Likelyhood: longshot, at this point.
The Favourite – I consider this one is really third in line for the Best Picture win, due to the strenght of the performers and the across-the-board appeal
Black Panther – NO, it’s not winning. It’s the 18th (I think) installment of a megafranchise, and despite the aura marketing assistants try to assimilate to the film, it’s not a masterpiece nor a milestone. It’s not even in the top 5 MCU films and not in the top 10 comic-book films ever made. If they want to honor Stan Lee, Spider-man into the Spiderverse is the Oscar you’re thinking of. That film actually deserves a Best Picture nomination more than Black Panther, by the way. This one winning in front of BlackKklansman would be an even worse choice than Crash over Brokeback Mountain or A Beautiful Mind over Moulin Rouge AND Gosford Park AND Fellowship of the Ring WHILE SNUBBING Mulholland Drive AND Hedwig and the Angry Inch. That bad, it would be.
If Beale Street could talk – too weak right now. Viable winner if they just want to spit in Spike Lee’s face.
Eight Grade – it’s not going to happen, we all know that. Next
First Reformed – ditto. Next
Green Book – it still can happen but it seems more and more unlikely as days go by. It may even go completelty emptyhanded (Cooper taking Actor, Elliott or another one taking Supporting over the already awarded Ali). Feeling more and more like “nom is enough”
First Man – this is on the Guild’s hands to re-launch (pun intended) this film into the stratosphere. It CAN happen, still… think of the (ridiculous) narrative of “Ben Affleck has been snubbed, vote for Argo at Best Picture”… the film has passionate defenders.
Bohemian Rhapsody – oddly enough, I think this may happen, even if I am not predicting it. Despite reviews, this film has “it”, the emotional push that drains your energy and ends with a tour de force that launches the adrenaline to cinematic and musical heaven.
Roma – NO. Netflix + Foreign Language + Cuarón is SO winning Cinematography and has already a Best Director award for “Gravity”. This is an extreme longshot for the win, as the absence of Aparicio at big nominations is showing.
Mary Poppins Returns – no way. Think of Mad Max: Fury Road… similar scenario, but even worse, MMFR had the same author, MPR is a cashgrabber coming 50 years later, no matter how good it may be.
Can you ever forgive me? – if it wins it would be the huge shocker of the night
A Quiet Place – I have to admit, it would be nice to see this one win… but, how? I would believe this if they had the guts to submit Blunt as lead and Simmonds as Supporting and betting on her (I think she could have won: real life disability plus she’s absolutely awesome in the film, carrying it at many points, yeah, a bit of category fraud but this could have happened, way more easier than it seems).
So for the win, in my book… if they win Best Picture… they might also win…
1. A Star is Born (33%) Picture – Actor – Actress – Song
2. Blackkklansman (25%) Picture – Director – Adapted – Film Editing
3. The Favourite (15%) Picture – Actress – Costume – Production Design
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (10%) Picture – Actor – Costume
5. Vice (7%) Picture – Actor – Supporting Actress – Make up
Next 10%:
6. If Beale Street could talk Picture – Director – Supporting Actress
7. First Man – likely to be snubbed for the BP nom – Picture – Supporting Actress – Film Editing – Sound (x2) – Visual Effects
8. Green Book Picture – Actor – Original
9. Black Panther Picture – Score – Production Design – Costume – Visual Effects – Make Up
10. Roma Picture – Director – Foreign Film – Cinematography
Here’s my prediction of BP and likely hood of nomination: ASIB, “Roma”, The Favourite”, “Blackkklansman”, “Black Panther”, “Green Book”, “Vice” and “If Beale Street Could Talk”. That’s the 8 I am most confident on. And then there three films which are fighting for the last place or replace one of the 8 if there is only places. They are “First Man”, “First Reform” and “8th Grade”.
I believe BP winner will from one of these four films: ASIB, “Roma”, “The Favourite” and “Blackkklansman”
Roma has more chances of winning BP than Federer winning another GS, unless he paid for it, as he already did….
You’re clueless.
Saw Green Book… not a fan at all. Trite, uninspired, and dishonest filmmaking.
Viggo especially is not Best Actor worthy at all.
If ASIB were not in the mix I’d wager that GreenBook would win BP
Yeah I could see that – this is the sort of film engineered to appeal to a certain base of people that just happen to make up a lot of the Academy.
Well then, that’s how to win an oscar ..make a movie that appeals to the average voter ..it’s not rocket science
Saw it too, live in Iowa, the theater had an audience of over 100 people even though it’s been out for weeks. There was applause at the end of the show. We loved it
People love understandably. It’s well done mainstream filmmaking that’s just not done anymore.
May I add that this was at the art house movie theater I work at, so this was a demanding audience that comes for quality films and has good taste. I myself was reluctant about watching it at all, and oh surprise, it was wonderful
Loved it. Everyone I’ve spoken to who has seen it has loved it. But I can see where it would turn some people off.
Lovely breakdown as always Sasha. Innovative, juicy and with some very insightful knowledge on that Superhero Bias that caused Dark Knight to miss.
The only qualm I might have with your overall predictions are that you have Eighth Grade as a Best Picture contender, but as an alternative in Original Screenplay? I would think that would be the other way around? Unless there’s some buzz going on I haven’t heard about.
Here are my updated predictions (yep I go back and forth), and after this list I will wait until post Golden Globe winners and PGA/DGA/BAFTA noms.
In order of likelihood
BEST PICTURE
1. Roma
2. Black Panther
3. A Star is Born
4. BlackKKlansman
5. The Favourite
6. Green Book
7. Bohemian Rhapsody
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Vice
10. Crazy Rich Asians
I still think people are underestimating Crazy Rich Asians. Statistics aside, big money plus big reviews to me is a little hard to ignore. It also EXCEEDED expectations at the box-office. No major stars. A domestic comedy of manners. I just think along with it’s SAG Ensemble and Globe love it might make the shortlist. It certainly is better then some of the other stuff we’re moving higher up on the pole. It ranks 10th now for me, but it’s so much better then the likes of Vice (getting mixed reviews by the way), Bohemian Rhapsody– which is ONLY getting up here because of the killer box-office and ‘music’ angle. I wonder if it would take votes away from the other big music movie A Star Is Born.
I also think If Beale Street Could Talk peaked too late. The focus, in terms of genre, for black filmmaking will clearly be between Spike Lee and Ryan Coogler’s films. Jenkins had his moment in the sun recently, and like The Favourite trumping Mary Queen of Scots for the coveted ‘period piece’ slot, I see Jenkins’ vulnerable. That SAG miss was big. If BAFTA and PGA rebound, I will def keep it higher. Vice too, seems really shaky. Lot’s of makeup and big stars, but political films can be very divisive- especially in a turbulent year like this. Jenkins does triumph with the fact that his film is getting terrific reviews.
I think Mary Poppins Returns is not going to be as big as we think. I talked to a lot of people over the holidays who were not interested at all in seeing it, and regular people are often sometimes the ones to listen to in regards to what the voters could also be thinking (ala when I was asking people in 2015 about their favorite films, Spotlight sure did pop up a lot). Disney’s movie is not doing well at the box-office as hoped, and Blunt aside- seems to be sinking into another Product Movie that Disney is known for now with its remakes (think Beauty and the Beast). If anything, if the academy wants to honor a great family film- why not Paddington 2– the BEST reviewed film of the year? At least, it was for a moment. Would you EVER guess a movie with that title would have that collateral? Never lol. But it’s that good.
Roma remains the force to be reckoned with, positioning itself to possibly become the first foreign language film ever to win best picture. The problem? It’s ONLY a Foreign Language contender at the Globes. Which means unless Alfonso wins Director, it won’t headline twitter the next day. But I think it WILL win Director- with Spike Lee a VERY big threat. This is going to be a very exciting Globes next Sunday.
Also First Man seems like it will either place in the techs only, or be a bigger contender then we think. If Claire Foy is going to make the supporting actress shortlist, Gosling belongs there too.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
I think if Black Panther wants to be competitive for the top prize, Coogler gets in here. Yes Argo won without it, but that was a very clear case of Ben Affleck being a huge star that got snubbed. Which Coogler is not. He’s a great director, but the former situation revolved around a big player who was seen as a shoo-in since his him was a frontrunner, and then got the boot. Farrelly I think is vulnerable. Green Book is getting a sort of mundane yet positive amount of feedback, but again- is in the background right now to racially conscious films like Lee’s who are going to make more of an impact on nomination morning (I think).
BEST ACTOR
1. Christian Bale, Vice
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
3. John David Washington, BlackKklansman
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
This hasn’t changed since last time. I still say NYC and LAFCC winner Hawke gets the passion sweep to put him at the top. But Mortensen is a reliable actor and has a good track record for getting those few nominations from he academy when his name was in the conversation. Bale is at the top of the list, which is why I am putting Vice down still as shaky best pic contender.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
I am dumping Emily Blunt. I was at first enthused by her magazine covers and “big year”, but I think voters will instead remember her for A Quiet Place in supporting- a much more grounded and intense role. I could be wrong and if BAFTA puts the magical nanny in I might fold. But for now I see her as the snub- because despite what I said earlier, Melissa McCarthy’s performance is just too layered and juicy to be bypassed.
My big pick is Nicole Kidman in Destroyer. Though very hesitant to add her, reviews are singling her out and it’s making a lot of traction with advertising. A transformation role like this might be the ticket to her 5th nomination. The issue? Kidman’s movies often struggle to make money when it’s her carrying the film, competition is crowded with many other ladies in the room, and she hasn’t showed up anywhere besides the Globes- who always fawn over her. But the performance is that eclectic. Like Bale, the academy loves a complete makeover- especially if its a pretty female playing ugly.
A lot of hush crowds are saying Glenn Close is their girl. I don’t think Gaga is as strong for the win. Again, while its a great reviewed movie, and she has the singing down- is anyone talking about her performance to the highest degree? Yes, I know Sandra Bullock won for The Blind Side on similar circumstances (popular, box office, popcorn fluff). But Bullock was already a well know powerhouse in acting. Like Julia Roberts, she was the romantic comedy Queen doing a Big Drama. Gaga is known as a singer. The Muppets Movie does not count as an acting performance. Sorry. I think Close has the narrative, and if she touches ANY statue (Globe, SAG, BAFTA)- she is competitive.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
I am putting Sam Elliot back in. I think the success of the film will move him up, and it’s a career award nod. But don’t underestimate Rockwell- especially since he’s interpreting an infamous President. I think Chalamet might be a little more on the cusp then we think since many are just rubber stamping him and that’s when passion nominees like Michael B. Jordan could make the list- especially since Black Panther would have even more bragging rights for the top prize if it could get an acting nod. And Jordan is everywhere right now.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Emma Stone, The Favourite
3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
4. Amy Adams, Vice
5. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
If Margot Robbie gets a BAFTA nod, I will drop Blunt. But that means Blunt might make the lead category. Her double SAG nods make me think she’s getting in for either one (or dare I say, both?). I have Adams fourth because I need someone, ANYONE, to tell me what she does in this movie that’s Oscar worthy? Not just for a nomination, but apparently- a win now that King didn’t get up for SAG. I have yet to hear anyone give me a solid reason so I am not predicting Ms Adams to be our winner. In fact, like her disses in Arrival and Big Eyes, she could totally be the snub people didn’t see coming because- like the Rubber Stamp idealists- voters didn’t really care. Robbie and even Claire Foy seem much more likely. No one is touching The Favourite women, and King is getting in.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade
Dropping the Coen Bros. due to heavy competition. I still think Adam McKay’s movie gets some big nods on nomination morning, but again- those split reviews and money returns have me second guessing. This could end up just being Bale’s show. Also First Reformed. Damn what a tough shortlist this is. I am putting Eighth Grade in because I am hearing more and more buzz swirling around it, and this is just the category for an indie look at adolescent life to be merged.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. BlackKklansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Black Panther
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Crazy Rich Asians
I still think A Star is Born won’t make the cut. If WGA says otherwise, then I might slide. But a heavy field once again proves that the writer’s branch has a lot of stories to pick through- and we haven’t even gotten to the possibilities of First Man, Wildlife, Death of Stalin or Leave No Trace. Regardless, I think Spike Lee FINALLY wins his overdue writing Oscar. And it’s about damn time.
Happy New Year everyone!
Great post. I would love to see blunt in for a quiet place
Thanks Blake! I am only thinking outside the box haha but maybe, just maybe, Blunt gets in for A Quiet Place- and wins. SAG might give it to Blunt, not Adams, for supporting. Because I don’t see a lot of support behind Adams in terms of it being HER year. I DO see support behind Blunt and it being HER year. I just think the academy (might) award her for the supporting performance, and not nominate her Poppins. Adams only thing going is “oh she’s never won before and its nomination number 6.” That’s it. It’s a decent collateral, but Glenn Close is basically going in with a similar story.
Let’s see what happens!
Now that everything has opened (more or less) and we know reviews, early box office for the late-breakers, GG, BFCA, SAG, etc — with just the Guilds and BAFTA to chime-in, I’m thinking …….
A STAR IS BORN
BLACK PANTHER
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
ROMA
If 9 … could really go so many ways (VICE, MARY POPPINS RETURNS, A QUIET PLACE, etc).
ACTOR: BALE, COOPER, MALEK, VIGGO, WASHINGTON
ACTRESS: BLUNT, CLOSE, COLMAN, GAGA, MCCARTHY
S.ACTOR: ALI, CHALAMET, DRIVER, ELLIOTT, GRANT
S.ACTRESS: ADAMS, KIDMAN (MY NGNG), KING, STONE, WEISZ
DIRECTOR: COOPER, CUARON, FARRELLY, LEE, LANTHAMOS
EIGHTH GRADE IN FOR ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
OVERALL: ASIB, BLACK PANTHER and THE FAVOURITE with the most nominations. FIRST MAN and MARY POPPINS RETURNS to do very well below the line, as well.
How much of a theatrical release did Dumplin’ get?
Good question.
Interesting that Sasha has Rockwell in for Supporting and not Elliott (who some people say could win). If Rockwell gets in for that performance, I’m thinking it’s an afterglow situation. Would be great if Michael B. Jordan somehow found a way.
We know ASIB is making it in (200 mill and counting). Black Panther looking strong to make it in (700mill).
Imagine IF Bohemian Rhapsody (185 mill), A Quiet Place (180 mill) and Mary Poppins Returns (killing it this past week, on track for something close to 200 mill by the end of its run) could all make it in.
Guessing it’s just ASIB, BP and maybe Bohemian Rhapsody. But who knows!? 🙂
Great analysis. My only quibble is the sense of Vice’s momentum for a Best Pic nomination. I think it’s fading. But that’s tertiary. …. A fascinating thing about Roma and Black Panther is that you could have the two Best Pic frontrunners with zero total acting nods. I think that’s ultimately a huge hurdle for both. If Black Panther can squeeze out a supporting actor/actress nomination, that could be the sign that it’s going to be a big night for it.
For Best Picture I would like to see this happen:
First Man
Blackkklansman
Eighth Grade
Mary Poppins Returns
Spider-Man Into The Spider-Verse
A Star is Born
Roma
The Favourite
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
Just imagine if the AMPAS had balls…
The House that Jack built
BlackKklansman
The Death of Stalin
Avengers: Infinity War
Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Roma
Cold War
… and leave it like that, with these nominated for Best Director:
Lars von Trier
Spike Lee
Armando Iannucci
Alfonso Cuarón
The Russo brothers
Should add Sorry to bother you in your post.
For my “actual risk taking” AMPAS I’d go (alphabetical order)
A Star is Born (I’ll throw the basic people in the Academy a bone)
BlackKklansman
The Favourite
Hereditary
Mandy
Mission Impossible: Fallout
Roma
Shoplifters
Sorry To Bother You
Spider-Man Into The Spiderverse
guys just out of curiosity, who is the worst acting winner according to metacritic score? i know Streep won with a 54 score, there is someone with even worst score?
Sandra Bullock won Lead Actress for The Blind Side (53). Angelina Jolie won Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted (51).
Fingers crossed for The Favourite to rise up and sweep the guilds.
Mostly based on personal enthusiasm more than anything else, of course.
It’s kinda Impossible, given it’s not nominated for SAG ensemble, won’t be eligible for WGA, Cuaron or Cooper is taking DGA. Maybe it can sweep half of the techs. But cinematography is reserved for Cuaron.
“But cinematography is reserved for Cuarón.”
Too bad. I really thought the cinematography in The Favourite was more memorable. Roma was well shot, don’t get me wrong, but I feel like a big part of that is the B&W factor (see: Nebraska).
It’s not impossible far from it. SAG is an issue as it always is. Being an eligible for WGA doesn’t hurt a film’s chances. “The Favourite” could screenplay at GG, BFCA and BAFTA. I expect it to win the latter two. That will position for a TSOW style victory if Colman wins actress. I always say, be careful of a film that could win major categories, especially acting and screenplay.
No, but he means it’s kind of impossible for it to sweep the guilds, or even come close, seen as it’s not eligible/nominated for 2/4 of the big ones, and highly unlikely to win the DGA as well.
Oh, you are right. That’s going to make it difficult for it to win BP. Only 3 films have BP with only a single major guild win.
Not if it were perceived to win WGA *if* it were eligible.
By winning three or at least three of major precursors can give it perception, I suppose. However, the stats is the stats and it still says only three films have BP by winning only one major guild and two of those won the WGA, and they were “Moonlight” and “Braveheart” (12 Years tied PGA, so not quite a win).
Incidentally, 12YAS was ineligible for WGA but it was always going to win that category. It was the frontrunner there and would have won the WGA.
Yes, but once they do split three ways (which is rare, and would very likely be the case if ASIB were to win the PGA but not the DGA – BlacKkKlansman would be the only movie that could win both that and SAG, in that case, which it might, but it doesn’t seem like that’s the most likely outcome), one of those three has to win, so ASIB would be in no worse a position than the other two, from the point of view of that stat.
When they do split three ways, the PGA is the worst predictor of the major guilds. Blackkkk could win WGA if it’s eligible which I think it is. I am starting to think that it could win SAG. I think Panther could win but I think Blackkk has the best ensemble of the nominees. I think Genre bias might goes against Panther. And from nowhere Blackkk could be very strong. And who could’ve foreseen that? I certainly did not expect it to be anywhere near this strong. In fact, I am still questioning myself why is it this strong? This is the question of the season so far. It seems very stealthy but I cannot be sure until we see big wins.
“When they do split three ways, the PGA is the worst predictor of the major guilds.”
I don’t know… It’s not worse than SAG. Both predicted one out of the four winners in years where there was a three-way split (the DGA, of course, predicted the other two), and the PGA was the one that predicted the winner the only other time there were three different winners for the PGA, DGA and SAG (when Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied for the PGA, the former won the DGA and American Hustle won SAG). Also, predicting 1/4 vs. 2/4 isn’t really “worse” in a sense that’s statistically, or even logically, relevant. 🙂 Since there are four years when this has happened, one of the big guilds had to have gotten at least 2/4 right. It’s hard to imagine the fact that it’s the DGA and not the PGA is some major clue that one is more predictive than the other. Especially given that neither has actually predicted a winner correctly in that situation in the preferential era (unless you count the 12 Years a Slave thing). 3/4 or 4/4 might have been more relevant.
“And from nowhere Blackkk could be very strong. And who could’ve foreseen that? I certainly did not expect it to be anywhere near this strong.”
Nor did I… but the answer to the question is very simple: Jesus Alonso. 🙂 He’s been saying it from the beginning, that the logical BP winner was BKKKM. (Not that I think he’ll be right, ultimately, but the very fact that it’s doing as well as it is means he deserves quite a lot of credit for that one.)
GG and BFCA might give a clue. I am also looking out for Oscar nominations in lead actor and editing. If it gets those plus the expected BP, BD screenplay and support actors, then I am moving to second favourite at worst.
They were hoping TF would sweep the Guilds Awards. Not its chances of winning the Oscars. Sweeping the Guilds is kinda impossible for TF at this point.
Amen, brother. What a masterpiece of a film. Lanthimos is just a genius.
His three Anglophone films to date have all been in my top 5 for their respective years. I really can’t wait to see what he does next.
And Dogtooth might be his best film. He really is a legend in the making
really hoping the same. It would also be my pick among the top contenders. If i had to rank what i`ve seen (might change with a second view):
1 – Vox Lux
2 – The Favourite
3 – If Beale street could talk
4 – Sorry to bother you
5 – Roma
6 – Vice
7 – First man
Vox Lux is DAMN good.
I really believe this is one of those years when we’re getting wrong what the industry will like. I’m waiting for the guildst to know which movie they will pick despite the critics, which one will be this year’s “Birdman” or “The King’ Speech”
Agree. I think this especially holds true in the acting categories. After last year, I think we may be shocked by the frontrunners after Globes and SAG have announced.
@Dirk gibbo you have incited a passive riot..namely silent majority see common sense over future of film that blends huge critical acclaim with yes some race politics but overwhelmingly visionary and epic and powerful. So no pple just too polite to admit you in sighted a ” riot” lol silent majority support black panther as I do. Oscars lame feeble excuses turning their back on TRUE Films publiv embrace and critics wearing thin on public reflected through most devastating decline of ratings each awards season last several years . THAT buddy is silent majority common sense prevailing over vain idle manipulation. Of academy try force silent majority fool them into thinking true deserved best film win. Black panther is true masterwork it is whole heap better than star is born far more original far more inventive far more relevant to us what film goers united with critics capable being on same page . you won’t get that with least half contenders guarantee it
I would love that FLF line-up (though I don’t like Capernaum), but I’m worried we’re in for at least one shocker. I also really love the idea of Minding the Gap landing in Documentary, but I’m skeptical.
Cannot believe the love for Black Panther. What a load of drivel it was!! Derivative rubbish that was targeted at an audience so gratuitously that we switched off after 20 minutes, Could not abide it. Like the Lion King meets Star Wars.
I’m a lifelong MARVEL fan. And I enjoy BP for what it is. And entertaining if somewhat unoriginal comic book movie. But the only reasons it’s getting in is it’s over hyped and race related politics… It’s not even the best MCU movie this year let alone overall.
not THAT bad. It was an OK film and there are things of merit in the film (specially Letitia Wright, Andy Serkis and (woof) Winston Duke (yeah, I like Michael B. Jordan too, but Best Supporting Actor nomination? I can understand Danai Gunira being campaigned, but Jordan?)… it’s a good film, entertaining… but galaxies away from Thor Ragnarok or even Infinity War
I like the costumes but was disappointed by the lack of actual panthers. How cool would it have been if his sister made a bad ass robot panther to help her brother out.
You probably should have seen in a movie theater.
Yep, my overall comment is “uh, no”.
This is a year where the animated feature category is actually fascinating. Three genuinely good films, but only one is actually a triumph. (Spiderverse, natch).
Spiderverse seems to have taken the lead, but The Incredibles 2 is miiiiighty strong and Isle of Dogs has been wining quite a few critics awards. Even Ralph Breaks theInternet has its big champions. It IS a race.
At least The Spiderverse is not full Disney. Give other studios a chanee.
So in other news Obama has released his best of the year list and it’s amazing! I’m never going to agree entirely with any list but it is far better than I imagine the Oscars could possibly be! You should all totally check it out!
Can you post it here? I’d be very interested to look at it.
Obama’s Top Films of 2018
Annihilation
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Blindspotting
Burning
The Death of Stalin
Eighth Grade
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
Minding The Gap
The Rider
Roma
Shoplifters
Support The Girls
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
I think this list is far too safe to be believable. There isn’t a single oddball pick.
Yep. I love Obama, but let’s not fool ourselves that his year end list of books, movies and songs is not carefully vetted and managed by a communications advisor to send certain messages of coolness and inclusiveness. I never trust lists that don’t include something odd, idiosyncratic, or “wrong”.
I would tend to agree with this but the rankings look personal. I mean, why is “Annihilation” top while “Roma” is way down the list? the picks look prepared but the rankings look more personal to me.
I think they’re just in alphabetical order.
Are you sure? It looks like that but why is “The Death of Stalin” high if that’s case?
It’s just alphabetized as a library would do with books — the article “The” is left out for alphabetizing purposes, or half the books in the world would be on the “T” shelf under “The”. So “Death” determines placement. Same with “The Rider”.
Yes, good point. It does seem that way. But the problem is that I saw a ranking of it on another side. Why did the rank it if wasn’t ranked before?
I wonder if the other site just numbered them, without intending to rank them.
No, they listed them as they are here but added number to their position like a ranking. Anyway, the fact is that you are right and it is alphabetised. That makes sense looking at the list.
I’ve seen this take from many people, and while I share your cynicism to some extent, I wonder which films you think are not of his choosing? Do you think he even saw all of these films? Did he see them, but not necessarily love all of them? TBH, I could see him loving all of these films. Do you have an example of a film you’d consider “wrong” or odd that might be included on an authentic list?
The two glaring omissions for me are Green Book and Sorry To Bother You. The former because it plays to the idyllic American vision that Obama espoused. And the latter because of its study of grassroots politics and satirical analysis of identity politics.
Fair comment! I’m sure I’m being a bit cynical. And of course I’m just talking outta my arse here. I assume O has seen all of these films. I’m not so cynical as to think he hasn’t even seen them. But the list is so tasteful, so perfectly inclusive (with nothing potentially offensive, like Green Book, being included) that i do also assume that there was some massaging of the list to ensure it sendt the right messages. I’m surprised there’s no First Man, or The Hate U Give (which was better than Blackkklansman, IMO).
I just wish the list had a piece of trash or a horror movie or a bad comedy like Book Club, something that just kinda said, “I loved this despite my best instincts, and I’m not ashamed to say it”. For me, that was Oceans Eight, a movie i loved way beyond what it deserved. For some it might be Crazy Rich Asians, or Venom.
But don’t get me wrong — the idiot maniac currently in the White House has not seen one movie, read one book or heard one song this year. It’s bittersweet to remember a President who actually was interested in culture.
Obama should be a Critics Choice voter…
I would be sceptical of the list but why is “A Star is Born” not on it? As was saying to me myself the other day, no respectable critic would be it in their top ten.
Is this a bad sign for ASIB to miss Obama list? maybe it’s not favourite for BP after all. It failed the Obama test.
I guess Cartman was right… (But pretty nice list, that aside, despite missing First Man.)
I have a sneaky suspicion that Debra Granik will nab the crazy, one-off, fringe spot for Best Director.
Well, I for one would be happy with that, but that would mean no Schrader as well.
Skip Cooper and let the right ones in (Granik, Pawlikowski and Schrader)! 😉
I would love her and Schrader to snag the fourth and fifth slots (even over Lanthimos), but most likely only one gets in (if that). I think Cuaron, Cooper, and Lee are locked.
How great would a Cuaron Schrader Lee Granik Lanthimos lineup be. Not gonna happen but would be great
That would prove that the Academy director branch has come of age.
“The only real difference between film critics now and film critics when I first started covering the Oscars is that the critics themselves have become a kind of club, their own consensus where some films thrive and others don’t. ”
I would say it has always been this way. Unless you have proved data that the past had a larger range of nominations, this is just some random thought
There are a number of reasons why ASIB will win, not least because it’s a sensible compromise choice between the art house Roma and the mass appeal of Black Panther
I don’t think “sensible compromise” voting is really a thing with Oscar voters.
1. I do. I think a lot of voters might sit down and say “Roma was great but slow, and arty. Black Panther was lots of fun but essentially a popcorn movie. ASIB was both entertaining and had some artistic merit. I’ll vote for it as the compromise.”
2. Even if individual voters do not vote for the sensible compromise, the preferential ballot system substantially pushes a sensible compromise candidate.
The voters listen to the media complaints about the oscars being elitist and out of touch with regular movie goers; they aren’t going to vote for a movie like BP to win because of that , but nor will they vote for Roma as it will only confirm the criticism ..what they may do is vote for ASIB as a sensible compromise choice
WTF, ASIB fans are the most delusional ones in years. A boring corny 4th version of a cliché story most Academy Members have watched over the years, but with way more respected leading actresses (actually, real actresses). I can’t wait for the industry awards to finally put an end to this rubbish
When it wins BP just look at yourself in the mirror and say ” Why do I have such trouble reading the voters” ?
It would be the first time in years, my dear.
Here’s a lesson for free: in these past years, a film must have “importance” + “heart” to win Best Picture, and if there’s something ASIB lacks is importance. If “La La Land” – a much superior filmmaking achievement which also screamed oscar-bait – couldn’t win, ASIB is dead. Plus, thank god the snobby director’s branch won’t nominate Cooper, same way they didn’t nominated Affleck or Sean Penn, two more well liked male movie stars (and even “Argo” had more “importance” than ASIB!)
Sean Penn is well liked most people think he is a jerk.
And here’s a lesson in politics for you for free ….
La La Land was well on its way to victory like it eventually did at BAFTA were it not for the cruel intervention of politics with the election and inauguration of a ”reality TV star” Donald P Trump , that happened just as the voters were trying to chose a winner ; the voters are a left leaning crowd and they weren’t going to carry on as usual after a radical, upsetting event like that, they were going to make a more radical choice of movies to send a message of sorts out to Trumpland
Naturally , this kind of counterfactual is impossible to prove but as a long time follower of American Politics it sounds right
Moreover, ASIB will definitely get the BD nom and will easily win BP
If we followed your argument, then “Blackkklansman” is winning BP. It is the zeitgeist movie this year.
And why is Black KKK zeitgeist
It has much more of relevance to issue you referred to than “Moonlight”. And if that’s what wins BP , then it seem Blackkk is poised to win.
Roma has nothing of art house let me tell you, it’s one of the most overrated films of all time and it’s boring
I’m beginning to think that Steve Carell, Vice not Rockwell will sneak into that 5th Supporting Actor slot, (strong overall year, +Marwen, +Beautiful Boy). He did get nominated by SAG last year for Battle of the Sexes. Wonder if this year he’ll get recognized by AMPAS?
To be fair he’s the better of the 2 in the movie. You can be fooled into thought Rockwell is better because the makeup is amazing but he slips into caricature far too often and doesn’t really have much to do where Carell is actually great in it (as is Bale but that goes without saying and isn’t pertinent to think conversation).
Carell and Chalamet competing against one another — for different movies — would be kind of fun. But whether that particular clash happens or not, at the moment my hunch is that the best supporting actor Oscar will go to Ali.
“What we don’t yet know is which they will resist more — Netflix/streaming vs. superhero franchise.”
In a sane world they’d get around this by picking If Beale Street Could Talk, a non superhero movie that isn’t doing some stupid day and date release, but alas, everyone seems to be taking it for granted.
So, what do you guys think about Kevin Spacey’s new YouTube video? Just curious to hear your take on the matter?
Haven’t seen it but from what I’ve read it sounds like entrapment to me. The “kid” allowed himself to be groped for three minutes. Doesn’t sound right.
Allowed? why on earth would a victim ever allow someone to abuse them? That’s ridiculous! Also, I hope the kid in this story is not the underage child that he was accused of molesting.
He is a creepster.
Speaking of a group think, check out this article where they asked 52 directors their favorite films of the year.
https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/directors-best-movies-tv-2018-guillermo-del-toro-edgar-wright-pedro-almodovar-1202030788/
They pretty much all pick the same 20 films and those are:
You Were Never Really Here
Roma
The Favourite
First Reformed
Cold War
Burning
Shoplifters
Annihilation
Hereditary
Mandy
BlackkKlansman
Black Panther
The Rider
Eighth Grade
Suspiria
Beale Street
Leave No Trace
And yet not a single one picks Green Book and only one out of the 52 mentioned A Star Is Born. Hell, Ready Player One and Solo are both listed three times! It’s funny cause I didn’t like almost all of their favorite films.
This helps my theory that Bradley Cooper’s not going to win Best Director, and that A Star is Born will be more popular amongst actors than directors and technical roles.
How many Directors vote for the BD oscar ?
Around 500 people. They will probably be less indie – more populist than these lists, but it’s not completely implausible that they snub Cooper altogether.
I’m surprised it’s that much ….thought it was about 300 …they aren’t going to snub Cooper that’s for certain
The number of directors is around what Aroncido said but I feel like in relation to Cordelia Awards’ theory it should be noted that the whole Academy votes for the directing winner so what they think should win doesn’t matter any more than what 500 actors think should win. The only thing they specifically can do is not nominate him (which seems unlikely)
This is a good list. I despaired over the overblown sentimentality of the latest version of A Star is Born, and it certainly isn’t in my list of best films of the year.
Best of 2018:
Burning
Shoplifters
Cold War
Leave No Trace
Roma
Mandy
Decent:
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Overrated:
Annihilation
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Hereditary
Suspiria
Best of 2017:
First Reformed
The Rider
You Were Never Really Here
of the ones you mentioned, the ones that I’ve seen…
Masterpieces: BlackKklansman and Roma (not mentioned: The House that Jack Built and The Death of Stalin)
Overrated: Annihilation and Black Panther.
Thanks for posting, Pedro Almodovar has once again an excellent Top 10 – I remember I was also thrilled by his last year´s list.
And significant: “A Star is born” gets totally ignored. But it makes sense, cause the films listed are really in favor of arthouse cinema.
“And yet not a single one picks Green Book”
Actually, Whit Stillman picked “Green Book”.
Also glad that “Western” got a little love (though it first came out in 2017).
Okay, I missed it. So Green Book and Star both for one mention out of 52. Vice I think only got 2 or 3. First Man got at least 5, but still, those all pale to Roma, First Reformed and You Were Never Really Here.
Oh, totally agreed. I didn’t mean to sound snarky. I was just glad to see the lone “Green Book” mention. But I imagine that you and I are thinking alike, that only one mention for “Green Book” isn’t really encouraging.
Gotcha. Yeah, I just find it fascinating how like minded these directors are. It kinda supports Sasha’s article. I mean, I don’t think they all got together beforehand to agree on which movies to list, nor do I doubt they are being genuine with their choices. They all must simply look for different things than I do when it comes to viewing a film. Guess I don’t have a director’s mind.
Not choosing “Green Book” and ASIB doesn’t mean they are like minded. That’s quite ridiculous. Their list are very diverse, just not the kind of diversity you wanted, right?
I’m not sure what that means, but when every list has on average 4-5 of the 17 films I listed on each of them, out of 300 films realeased this year, what are the odds? I just would’ve liked to see some more variety, not diversity (because again, what does that even mean). Nobody had a Boy Erased, Mary Poppins, Tully, Sisters Brothers, Overlord, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Mule, Bumblebee, Old Man and the Gun, etc. Only a few mentions of Quiet Place but tons of Hereditary and Suspiria, no Avengers and Spider Man but tons of Black Panther.
But I wasn’t saying anything about their lists per se, but only noticing that directors (at least these) seem to think in the same ways. Like Sasha hinted at when she said groups tend to think the same. Now release lists for 52 actors and I’m sure we will get many different titles.
I mean, of course, diversity as in opinion/taste. I thought that was obvious as you were talking about them thinking alike because they didn’t like ASIB and “Green Book”. Picking the same things doesn’t mean they think the same way. That’s just stupid.
To get an even more diverse list it would need a big sample than 50 odd people. These people are much more alike than average person. That seems somehow shocking to people? Why? They don’t represent the average person and why should we expect that. Which group represent the average person? You can change the demographic of the group but groups tend to have the more similar taste than those not in the group. a group mentality perhaps? But then that’s human nature because we tend to be influenced by people around us and similar to us. I don’t know whether these really are their favourites films or whatever but I suppose the best way to really tell that is by asking them to post an annonmously list.
I’m disappointed to be arguing with a fellow Federer fan, but I realize that these directors are an “alike” sect of people, therefore their tastes aligning wasn’t surprising. It was simply which movies they went for and which ones they didn’t that I found interesting. I don’t know what’s so difficult to understand here.
These analysis ignore how big and expressive the BAFTA and International Contingent in the Academy is becoming. And honestly, they are not voting for Black Phanter or maybe even A Star Is Born. Both films were completely ignored by the London Film Critics Circle. “Black Panther” was not nominated for the AACTA International Awards either (a group of 200 australian Academy Members). Just remember that this year BAFTA strongly ignored “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” for BAFTA Best Picture, so these films were never winning Oscar Best Picture. In the end, I say again that “Roma”, “The Favourite” or “Blackksman” (which looks stronger and stronger, and has a feeling of “Argo winning all over again”) will prevail: They are respected, important, non divisive and has passion votes – the huge amount of the british and international vote, I suspect. – An Academy that rewarded “Moonlight” and “Spotlight” are not worried with Box Office issues – they vote for the film they want.
I live for the BAFTA nominations and awards. Sometimes they throw a wrench into things for better or worse. Sometimes they foresee what will be nommed that we hadn’t thought otherwise. Mostly, my own preferences tend to align with BAFTA so, bring ’em on! 🙂
Only thing I would say is never in a million years will BAFTA go for BlackKklansman in a big way. Like it or not, they tend to be less enamoured with American heavy narratives (The Fighter and Dallas Buyers Club come to mind), especially when there is a focus on race (Moonlight and Get Out).
I can see them favouring Roma but also going for Stan and Ollie in a surprising, 6 or 7 nomination kind of way. I will never forget how Made in Dagenham and Pride were shoehorned into major categories because British!
They are going for The Favourite
Of course they will and Colman will reign triumphant. But they normally throw nominations at more than just the British film that happens to already be in the BP race. Case in point – Made in Dagenham in the year of The King’s Speech. Pride in the year of The Imitation Game and TToE.
“never in a million years will BAFTA go for BlackKklansman in a big way. ”
That, too.
Yeah, ASIB won’t win because it wasn’t nominated by the London Film Critics and won’t do well with BAFTA (which has become one of the actual worst major BP predictors in recent years, both in terms of nomination stats and of matching the winner)… :)) Come on!… If it loses BP, that’ll be about 0% of the reason. Maybe slightly more than that… Like, 2%, tops.
“An Academy that rewarded “Moonlight” and “Spotlight””
Both of which, by the way, underperformed badly at BAFTA, despite getting into the Best Film field. (Which is about the only relevant stat BAFTA has left – but ASIB will obviously get that nomination. Do you really think it won’t?)
[I can talk about BAFTA because, for obvious reasons, some of which I’ve just mentioned, it doesn’t factor into my final, official stats prediction for BP at the Oscars – and never has.]
Yes, we are talking about different beasts. Only BP nomination seems to be the only thing BAFTA is good for now. And maybe who will win techs.
Not to mention Moonlight was completely shut out at the BAFTA’s (Spotlight at least had one win for Original Screenplay).
Exactly.
No film has ever won Best Picture Oscar without a corresponding Best Picture BAFTA nomination since Million Dollar Baby – and it was because it was a late release – You can argue what you want, but facts are facts. I am saying that the luck of AISB wins an Oscar depends on how much BAFTA and The British and International Contingent of the Academy will go for it. They don’t care about american narratives. “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” for example were completely ignored. And when I quoted “Moonlight” and “Spolight’ wins – which both being nominated by BAFTA BEST PICTURE, it was to say that Academy members don’t mind about the Box Office when they vote. But backing too your point: I doubt ASIB will have much love of the Brits. Just look at Indiwire interview with almost 60 directors picking their favorites films of 2018: only 1 of them picked ASIB (and they all vote for Oscar and many for BAFTA).
“No film has ever won Best Picture Oscar without a corresponding Best Picture BAFTA nomination since Million Dollar Baby – and it was because it was a late release – You can argue what you want, but facts are facts.”
Wait, when did I argue against that?! Did I not mention that stat myself, above? That’s the only BAFTA stat that has any relevance for BP. And, like I said, ASIB will get that. If it doesn’t, we can re-evaluate. 🙂
“I am saying that the luck of AISB wins an Oscar depends on how much BAFTA and The British and International Contingent of the Academy will go for it.”
Like Moonlight, which won zero BAFTA’s out of 4 nominations? Or Spotlight – one win out of 3 nominations? (As Birdienest81 just reminded us.) These two pretty much prove that, apart from getting the Best Film nomination, it’s more or less irrelevant how well a BP contender does at BAFTA.
When I saw “Green Book” at TIFF, I was convinced Viggo was a lock. I don’t think it will happen now…
I’ve had this feeling for weeks that he might be the big omission/shock on nomination morning.
I have a feeling there’s gonna be shocks in virtually every category this year.
Which is always more fun
A lock to win or be nominated?
Top 8 Predictions, could change:
Picture
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
ROMA
A Star is Born
Directing
BlackKklansman, Spike Lee
The Favourite, Yorgos Lanthimos
First Man, Damien Chazelle
Leave No Trace, Debra Granik
ROMA, Alfonso Cuaron
Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham
The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
ROMA, Alfonso Cuaron
Vice, Adam McKay
Adapted Screenplay
BlackKklansman, Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Death of Stalin, Armando Iannucci, David Schneider and Ian Martin
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
Leave No Trace, Debra Granik
Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Steven Yeun, Burning
Supporting Actress
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Thomason McKenzie, Leave No Trace
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
It’s not like me to go with so many surprises. Maybe I’m bored. Maybe the way every acting award went to the same four last year, and the 2 top 8’s that were in doubt (BP, OS) went to the most likely. It’s all a game anyway; nothing important rides on it.
I’m not sure about If Beale Street Could Talk being lower than Eighth Grade as a contender. Yeah that movie isn’t doing well in the box office, but it’s an acclaimed director making another beautiful moving film, and has certainly gotten more precursor momentum than Eighth Grade.
Yeah, that’s not a wise prediction. It’s interesting that Sasha has put that one in instead of “First Reform”. I think one of the A24 films might get in but I would’ve thought FR was more likely than 8 Grade since it could land actor and screenplay.
I disagree with the core of your rationale; if money counts; and they all need jobs; than the rationale goes towards streaming (Roma) independently of its artistic merit (a plus) since anyone who is a worker in the industry is already working on a streaming service show in one way or another; whereas black panther is a niche product for workers; less and less films are made by studios and they employ a more exclusive club; and no amount of box office will change that. Wouldn’t you say ?
Nicole Kidman should be there in supporting actress, ahead of Marina de Tavira.
Yalitza Aparicio and Rosamund Pike should be there too. Felicity Jones was great – I’m surprised she’s received nothing yet.
To erase as contender Yalitza Aparicio and keep Marina de Tavira seems inherently wrong… I don’t think either will be nominated, but Aparicio is clearly the performer with the better chance.
To not include BKKKM among the top 5 candidates of the Best Editing line up seems odd.
If Cuaron and not Spike Lee wins BD, would you chance your avatar for one of Trump??
Carter. Can I ask a couple of off-topic questions?
Why do you always upvote your own comments?
Do you mind if I ask what time zone you’re in?
Why do you hate me for not loving Roma?? I totally get that you’re a liberal guy, iam too
Not hating you at all, Carter. Never any friction between us.
But you’re saying some borderline awful things lately. I’m just trying to figure out why you’re so mad about Roma. And the more you explain, frankly, the worse you sound.
It’s become the only thing that you want to write about.
You say you’re liberal, but it’s not very liberal-minded to act like you’re sick of seeing brown directors holding Oscars.
No
Black Panther is definitely not winning BP ..one of the reasons is that its currently sitting at 25-1 at the Bookies with less than 60 days to Oscar night …no winning movie has EVER had such high odds at this point in the race …there is such a thing as wisdom of crowds and if Black Panther really was a contender many gamblers would have jumped on it and crunched the odds ..the fact that no one has felt it worth even taking a risk on is the best indicator that it’s a loser
I think you’re underestimating Elliott and Jordan. The former could get in as career validation, the latter because he was given a very complicated character and completely nailed it.
It’s been weeks since I saw Roma and it still resonates. I absolutely loved that film.
Shouldn’t aparicio, pike and hall be listed on your “right on the edge” list too? I believe Jones and Roberts have a whopping total of zero critics noms each between the two. Perhaps they along with Davis fell over along time ago? Who really knows right lol.
I have heard absolutely ZERO buzz about Jones being nominated. It would be a real shock, considering the wealth of potential nominees that HAVE been contemplated (some for almost a year).
The best actress right on the edge list is really silly. There’s no talk of Jones, or Fisher, or Kidman despite the predictable GG star struck love.
Aparicio is at least in the conversation.
I genuinely think Fisher could sneak in a la Keisha Castle Hughes or Quvenzhane Wallis.
That’d be great…
I just don’t see Eighth Grade making it in the end and Beale Street missing. Just my opinion. And as much as I love Sam Rockwell, leaving out Elliot in supporting actor seems like an off prediction.
Yes, I just saw Vice and while Sam Rockwell was very good per usual, I just don’t think the role is big enough or substantial enough to get a nomination. I’d be very surprised if he’s nominated.
ditto
They will want to give Eighth Grade something and I think it will be an Original Screenplay nomination.
Eighth Grade could get Screenplay, but I think there might be a groundswell of votes for Beale Street – whether it makes it in just, say, 3 categories or 5/6; depending on the concentration of passion votes that would be late in-coming.