The all important DGA, or Directors Guild, will have their ballots turned in Monday, January 7, the day after Golden Globes weekend. You can bet that whatever wins there will impact how last minute members vote. You can try your luck at two categories – the first, Best Director and the second, Best First Time Director.
We’ll be doing a preview mid-week but probably you’re looking at Bradley Cooper for both Best Director and Best First Time Director for A Star is Born, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Spike Lee for Blackkklansman, and then probably Peter Farrelly for Green Book, and perhaps Ryan Coogler for Black Panther. Who should absolutely be there is Damien Chazelle for his masterpiece First Man. I doubt he will be, however, as voters, even critics groups, always want to be on the side that’s winning. Time will have to rescue First Man from the idiocy of this moment.
Either which way, give it a shot, Oscar Watchers, do your worst!
DGA Predictions:
Bradley Cooper
Alfonso Cuaron
Yorgos Lanthimos
Spike Lee
Adam McKay
John Krasinski directed two previous films, so it’s unlikely he’d be nominated as a first-time director.
Susanne Bier – director – Bird Box
Anne Fletcher – director – DUMPLIN’
Debra Granik – co-writer and director – Leave No Trace
Marielle Heller – director – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Tamara Jenkins – writer and director – Private Life
Karyn Kusama – director – Destroyer
Mimi Leder – director – On the Basis of Sex
Lynne Ramsay – writer and director – You Were Never Really Here
Josie Rourke – director – Mary Queen of Scots
Chloé Zhao – writer and director – The Rider
I think that’s quite easy.
Cuaron
Cooper
Coogler
Farrelly
Lee
At oscars Lanthimos will replace Farrelly.
I’m hoping Jenkins takes Cooglar’s spot from here on out. Agree Farrelly is in fifth spot, but he could go all the way, or be replaced by Lanthimos, Granik or Schrader at the Oscars
Cuaron and Cooper are in for sure. The other slots are arguably toss ups. To me, for the sake of the art we’re talking about here, all things aside, Yorgos deserves to get in for his film. It’s a stunner. There are half a dozen potential people getting in here. Adam McKay’s work again is sterling, but it feels very reminiscent of his previous film, so we’ll see whether he gets in or not (Vice is great though, I was intrigued all the way through, and it’s a far more thought provoking piece of work than most of the other films in the conversation). Ultimately I think he misses out to a more woke film. We’ll see.
Going out on a limb here:
Cooper
Cuaron
Lee
Jenkins
Coogler
Imagine the DGA giving 4/5 slots to people (well… men) of color. It’s a shame that it’s unlikely a woman gets in (though I suspect that Granik has a shot), especially given the strength of Leave No Trace, Private Life, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, You Were Never Really Here, and The Rider, but 4/5 directors being men of color would certainly be a statement.
For first time, I’m choosing a different actor in his first time at bat over Hill since his film was better received (though oddly forgotten about)
Cooper
Burnham
Aster
Riley
Dano
Yeah, I really wanted to go Dano too… but I chickened out. 🙂
My Predictions:
1. Alfonso Cuaron.
2. Spike Lee.
3. Adam McKay.
4. Ryan Coogler.
5. Bradley Cooper.
Rob Marshall? Any chance ?
I don’t see Ari Aster (Hereditary) in the BD lineup–a huge omission for a website that has been very-Hereditary friendly (for the most part). So I put him in “Other” for BD and voted for them there. I also voted for him in BFD, where he is listed as a nominee. We’re due for loads of good stuff from this guy (he’s only 31).
Judging by his work in Hereditary, he’s a fascinating talent to watch. God, that film would have a MAJOR presence in every major category at The Oscars and all the big award shows leading up to them (Best Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Supporting Actor) if we lived in a fair world.
Anyone but McKay please thank you very much
Unrelated but does anyone know which films are ineligible at BAFTA this year?
I do not recall that BAFTA would regularly deem films ineligible. Are you sure you mean the BAFTA and not the WGA?
I meant not released in the time frame that they set. Dallas Buyers Club, The Blind Side, Monster were all ineligible for BAFTA in their Oscar year.
Pawel Pawlikowski truly deserves the stunner-nomination this year!
Agreed. I think it’s in the realm of possibility.
I’m sorry but imo if Chazelle won’t even get a nomination for his phenomenal work in First Man these awards should stop and never return. The same goes for The Oscars as well.
How is Krasinski a first time director when he’s directed two films before A Quiet Place?
I’ve submitted, but I don’t recall seeing Cooper on the first time list.
I thought this too.
Shoot. I wasted a vote. I didn’t know this. I want Ari Aster to win anyway.
Saw If Beale Street Could Talk today. Just a great yet quiet yet powerful film. Really great. Not sure why Jenkins isn’t getting more ink for director but oh well. That score is insanely great as well.
Both If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man have terrific scores. It would be such a shame if neither won.
I’ve been saying that all year long, since I saw it on TIFF. It deserves even win the whole thing in my mind. I still have hopes.
Just got home after finally seeing Vice, and I am definitely on the side who think he and the film should be nominated. It’s really weird, but also really good. Such an amalgamate of lots of styles mashed together.
It’ll be interesting if Vice turns out to be the classic film that everyone should have paid attention to all along that outlasts everything.
Many, including Sasha, thinks First Man will be that film. I don’t. I think it’s a snooze.
Yes, First Man is this year’s Social Network here. I’d like to see have a bit of a rally just to shut up Trump supporters. Anything that does that is a good thing.
It seems like Vice is more that movie.
I saw it yesterday and liked it quite a bit… It seemed as thorough as it needed to be to be taken seriously while being consistently funny… It’s probably as entertaining as a movie about that subject can be. Plus all the performances are great. With Bale at the top of course.
My predictions:
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Ryan Coogler – Black Panther
Debra Granik – Leave No Trace
And then I predicted Coogler because it just seems like that kind of crazy year at the Guilds. Made sense if I’m going to stick to The Favourite and hate on Green Book. Sadly I did not predict Searching or The Tale in the first-time category because I needed to include Hereditary and felt that Sorry to Bother You would be too topical to exclude.
My predictions are:
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Peter Farrelly – Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
I have a feeling Adam McKay might miss now with everyone hating the film on Twitter.
funny, everyone I follow on Twitter loves VICE.
I should follow the people you follow haha. 🙂
But he’ll get into Oscar BD 5 instead of Farrelly.
Just my opinion.
Donald Trump (over)uses Twitter, so Twitter users are useless.
*Correction. John Krasinski is not a first time director. He has 2 previous feature films.
Brief Interviews with Hideous Men – 2009
The Hollars – 2016
Oh, man, I have to pick something else?!… 🙁
Sorry buddy. 🙁
On the bright side, he’s still a gifted actor and director. 🙂
🙂
This is incredibly off-topic, perhaps it doesn’t belong here, and won’t most likely mean anything to anyone but as this is the main place where I discuss film, it also feels like the right place to vent this, and expressing this over something like Twitter feels incredibly crude, I hope you understand:
An era has ended today. Orion is gone. The time that I spent with you was brief but you mattered so much to me, for years you have been my gold standard, the only place that I’ve had an emotional contact to, and some of the happiest moments I’ve had in my filmgoing life were with you. I’m incredibly sad that I wasn’t there for Splendor and the other final moments but I’ll always cherish the images you helped me expierence more vividly, all the way to Gabin, Dalio and the snow. That moment will from now on always have an extra meaning to me. I’ll miss you so much
I seriously think Pavel Pawlikowski will join Cuaron, Cooper, Lee and Lanthimos. I think Chazelle will get the snub.
That would be fantastic but Pawlikowski has a better shot with the Academy than the DGA. (a la Haneke)
You may be right!
Going safe but not too safe
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Damien Chazelle – First Man
Best First Time Director:
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Bo Burnham – Eighth Grade
Jonah Hill – Mid 90’s
Boots Ridley – Sorry To Bother You
Ari Aster – Hereditary
I went Farrelly instead of Lanthimos (probably wrong), assuming the latter replaces the former at the Oscars. And Krasinski instead of Hill. (Of course Chazelle won’t get in, but that’s just what I went with, nevertheless…)
I also think Aster will miss. That’s the one I think I’m most likely to get wrong there.
Ah, so Krasinski isn’t first time – then Hill, like you, I guess.
One name should be on every DGA ballot this year: Damien Chazelle, First Man. Otherwise they should just change the name of the guild into something else.
No ,he should not be nominated for best director I saw 20 better directed movies this year.
Cuaron, Cooper, Lee, Lanthimos, Coogler