AwardsDaily’s Predict the PGA Contest open for business.
CORRECTED FORM. If you entered the contest without name and email, please re-enter. Sorry about that.
AwardsDaily’s Predict the PGA Contest open for business.
CORRECTED FORM. If you entered the contest without name and email, please re-enter. Sorry about that.
Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault.
Better late than never! Barbie was placed in Adapted at the Oscars but is in the Original Screenplay category here,...
Read moreThe Academy should take a bow this morning for bringing back the Oscars, restoring them to their former glory in...
Read moreThe Golden Globes went off well enough this past year that CBS has signed a five-year deal with the Globes...
Read more
PLEASE HELP! WHEN IS THE USUAL PREDICT HE OSCAR NOMS CONTST UP & RUNNING???
A Star Is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
With probably Bohemian Rhapsody and maybe also one of If Beale Street Could Talk or First Reformed replacing A Quiet place and one or both of the last three above at the Oscars.
[I’m a bit nervous leaving out three AFI+NBR nominees in my PGA predictions – If Beale Street Could Talk, First Reformed and Eighth Grade -, since that’s never happened in the preferential era, but two of those have missed at least four times in that span, by my count, and I couldn’t find a better lineup, so I’m going with this one. If there’s a mistake I’m clearly making here, it’s going to be including First Man over If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s just that I’m still seeing First Man making the Oscar lineup, and I don’t know how it does that and miss the PGA. That makes no sense to me. But I’m probably just wrong about it making BP in the first place. We shall see…]
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Isle of Dogs
Early Man
[…for animated. The one(s) not on the Critics Choice list are usually on the Annie list. And the PGA rarely go for foreign animated films, so I don’t think Mirai gets in. Maybe The Grinch, but Early Man seems the more likely of the two.]
Edit: I’ve been convinced to switch to The Grinch from Early Man. Makes sense. I’m tempted to replace First Man, too, but I just can’t find an alternative I believe in. First Reformed, maybe? If Beale Street Could Talk? I don’t know. I see whereas the Oscars have had movies with such low Metascores among their nominees recently, the PGA haven’t, so I don’t think I can go for BR. (Again, probably foolishly.) So I’ll just leave that one as it is. Feels like I’d pick the wrong replacement anyway.
Grinch makes it over commercial flop Early Man. As for motion picture, i think Bohemian Rhapsody and CRA will get in over Mary Poppins and First Man, again, commercial disappointments. Remember, this is producer guild. They care about money.
All good points. You’re probably right. 🙂 But I’m too lazy to change… I won’t win anyway. I never win contests at AD. I’ve won plenty elsewhere, but never here. Tough crowd. 🙂
I also predicted First Man, obv 😉
Still thinking it’ll make a comeback at the Oscars. 😀
My NGNG is Leave No Trace
Without the PGA nod… I fear not. 🙁
Leave No Trace sounds like a good NGNG.
Eighth Grade
A Star Is Born
Blackkklansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
Roma
BlackKlansman
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Green Book
First Man
A Quiet Place
The Favourite
Leave no Trace
Can You ever Forgive me
MY PREDICTIONS:
Roma
Vice
BlacKkKlansman
Eight Grade
A Star is Born
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Green Book
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man.
Here’s my PGA prediction: “Roma”, ASIB, “The Favourite”, Blackkklansman”, “Green Book”, “Black Panther”, “Vice”, “If Beale Street Could Talk”, “First Man”, “Crazy Rich Asians”.
I think the Oscars might go for “First Reformed” or “Eighth Grade” instead of the last two. I am not going for “Bohemian Rhapsody” but it could turn out to be this years “The Darkest Hour”.
I have a philosophy when predicting the PGA nominees: in the history of PGA only one film has recieved no Oscar nominations (Deadpool in 2016) so I want to predict only films that I feel are likely to get at least one Oscar nomination. Thus my predictions are:
1. A Star Is Born
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Roma
4. Green Book
5. Black Panther
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Mary Poppins Returns
9. Bohemian Rhapsody
10. A Quiet Place
And in animated:
Incredibles 2
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
I think we all agree on those 5. It’s really unlikely that they’ll be looking foreign language or panned sequels. Grinch is hot in b.o. so it’s in, too, Dogs is the quality card, and the rest were obvious picks.
I picked Early Man instead of The Grinch, but I’m not sure at all.
you have to remind yourself, forget about Oscars. They don’t want to predict them. They use a mix of “producers wet dreams” (sleepers) and films that are prominent in FYC ads. I think there’s no way either Crazy Rich Asians AND Bohemian Rhapsody miss this. I am more confident on Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians (diversity in this case, GG and SAG Ensemble noms) than in A Quiet Place
I’m just not sure whether Crazy Rich Asians is going to get enough support (if they won’t even nominate it for screenplay at the Oscars, does it really have enough support to get a PGA nomination) and it’s not like the PGA chooses the most diverse films (they often seem to go for whiter films than the Oscars, especially 2014 comes to mind with Foxcatcher, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler being extremely white choices).
Instead Paramount is putting their weight solely behind A Quiet Place. Their campaign is aggressive and if voters even dabble in studio thinking, A Quiet Place feels like an extremely safe choice to me
Crazy Rich Asians is this year’s My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Ethnic comedy that becomes a sleeper hit. It’s in for Adapted and won’t win. Difference being, CRA had better reviews than “Wedding” and might also get nominated at Costume and Production Design, even Yeoh has an outside shot at supporting actress. I wouldn’t be in shock if CRA ends with 3-5 noms. Bohemian Rhapsody is way stronger though, and that’s wy I think Asians is the one that is going to make the cut at PGA, SAG and Globes then misses the Best Picture nom at the Oscars.
I think Bohemian Rhapsody has warrant Actor and 1 or 2 Sound nominations, then almost locked a Best Picture, and strong chances at film editing (remember, they had to make a film out the directing mess), and cinematography, production, costume and make up. It can really do well: Picture, Actor, Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Make Up, Production Design, Cinematography, Costume… 9 noms. Given the Globes, SAG love, if it gets PGA nom… it’s SO in
Relating to My Big Fat Greek Wedding, that makes me think it could happen, but it’s not necessarily a similar situation as My Big Fat Greek Wedding was even more of a “Producer story” with the really small budget.
As far as Bohemian Rhapsody goes, I’m predicting it for PGA and perhaps for the Oscars as well. But when was the previous time that your argument for editing got a film nominated in the category? Plus, remember that while the “music movie in sound” claim is true, it only applies to at most one film every year and this year we’re talking about three being considered “locks”. Something is probably going to miss
I read somewhere – I don’t recall where – that in Bohemian Rhapsody, Malek’s voice was mixed up with Freddie’s for the final result. If that’s true, we got not only a nominee but the winner as well.
Just checked out… https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/is-rami-malek-singing-in-bohemian-rhapsody-freddie-mercury-voice
“So is that Rami Malek’s voice in Bohemian Rhapsody?
Well, yes and no. Mostly no. It would be too convenient if Rami Malek could not only look like Mercury just by adding a stache and a pair of honkin’ big teeth, but also sound exactly like him. It’s difficult to overstate the unique vocal talents Mercury possessed, and it would be absurd to think that anyone — let alone an actor capable of leading a big-budget biopic — could adequately recreate his singing ability. A widely shared academic study, for example, found that while his legendary four-octave range was probably a myth bolstered by his frequent use of falsetto, the Queen frontman had such vocal control that he created subharmonics more associated with Tuvan throat singing than classical or other Western music. That’s before getting into his vibrato; the study found that not only was Mercury able to perform tremolo at a higher speed than most singers, he could also change the rate, making it faster or slower. In other words, that trembling sound on held notes that you hear opera singers pull off manifested in a singular way in Mercury.
All this to say: Rami Malek never had a shot at recreating Freddie Mercury’s voice.
How did Bohemian Rhapsody actually recreate Freddie Mercury’s voice?
The way this imperfect universe works, Malek’s physical impression of Mercury is the star. It’s so good and so over-the-top that it makes the general badness of the rest of the movie even more jarring. The good news is at least the songs sound great, because they’re pretty much recreations of the studio recordings you hear anytime you play a Queen album.
According to Rolling Stone, when not taken from the actual album tracks, most of the singing in Bohemian Rhapsody relies on isolated master tracks of Mercury’s voice from his studio recordings, mashed together with Canadian Christian rock singer Marc Martel, whose ability to copy Mercury’s voice is so uncanny you really just have to hear it for yourself.
“It is an amalgamation of a few voices,” Malek told Metro when asked outright if it’s his voice we’re hearing. “But predominantly it is my hope and the hope of everyone that we will hear as much of Freddie as possible. I think that is the goal for all of us.” It’s a nice way of saying that nowhere in his wildest dreams could Malek hope to recreate the immortal pop star’s iconic voice — so, as it does for the rest of the band’s history, the movie settles for an approximation.”
So yeah, we got a winner for Sound Mixing, maybe Sound Editing as well.
I’m predicting Crazy, Bohemian, Quiet, and Mary to all get in here even though I don’t think they are likely Best Picture nominees.
How many best picture nominees are you predicting there to be? The PGA has never predicted the Oscars that poorly (not that they predict, but their results predict) if for example they only got 6/9 Oscar nominees
I guess that’s where I am, waiting for signs from the below-the-line guilds, BAFTA, the Globes, and even my own opinions of the Oscar bait when I get to see it. Predicting the above four, I have to fill out the top ten with the likely top six – Star, Roma, KKK, Panther, Favourite, and Green Book. But I think some combination of Vice, Beale Street, and First Reformed is more likely than any of the box-office bottom 4. I always thought that Asians and eventually Bohemian would start to look really strong on paper after dominating the Globes, SAG, and PGA. Asians COULD get WGA and win SAG while Bohemian COULD score top nominations at BAFTA. And then it will be hard to predict against them, buuuut I know people think they’re not artistic enough or universally well praised. I will say I don’t think either Blunt movie will be Best Picture-nominated even though Quiet’s PGA nom is inevitable and Mary would feel like the odd man out if it’s only one here not to make the PGA lineup.
Wonder Woman, last year, didn’t receive any Oscar nominations either. A film that was much better than Black Panther, imo.
Of course, thank you for reminding me, but 188/190 is still too large to ignore (especially since both of those missing films were superhero films, and thus feel more like a genre exception that works as one precedent instead of two)
It’s the “more successful than expected slot” This year that could be A Quiet Place and/or Bohemian Rhapsody easily… I’d say Black Panther too, but that’s already in more serious contention.
Black Panther and Wonder Woman are so unbelievably overrated… we could be talking about Thor: Ragnarok and we would be talking about something worthy of awards… last year it was clearly snubbed for Score, Production Design, Costume, Make Up, and Visual Effects at the very least.
I’d rather we talk about “Logan”. Although I have some issues with its ultra violence involving the kid, I thought it was one the best superhero films I’ve seen.
Yes Thor: Ragnarok was sensational. I only gave Wonder Woman as an example because that too had a lot of cultural significance (like Black Panther) but somehow that didn’t translate into awards success.
Almost the same as mine :). I have First Man instead of Bohemian Rhapsody. Probably foolishly…
I’d imagine we’re both just making these predictions more bearable, you predicting a movie you really love, me wallowing in my self-pity and choosing my least favourite film of the year to get nominated
🙂 I mean, subconsciously, there’s some of that, perhaps, but honestly I just believe First Man is stronger than the HFPA and critics have lead us to believe. Which I could be very, very wrong about. The BFCA nods for picture and director and everything else don’t strike me as random.
And SAG. 🙂
Nothing would make me happier, unfortunately the logician in me just won’t let me do that… At this stage it just feels like shitty as it is BR is inevitable. Though I haven’t completely given up on first man I’m not completely sure pga is where it shows up if it does since it had not office issues and producers are the most likely group to care about that… For the record my predictions are identical to Ferdinand’s
Yeah, I just hadn’t considered that aspect… You’re probably right. I’m just too lazy to change. I never win these contests at AD anyway. 🙂
Anyone can confirm Timmy and Luke will be each others’ dates at the Globes on Sunday? I just took a second look at the set of nominees and, lol, I need an incentive.
New Year resolutions:
– Get rich.
– Buy the house from ‘Call Me By Your Name’ (still listed for sale).
– Track back the furniture, decorations and accessories from the film.
– Recreate the fountain-pool that was built for the film.
– Hire a couple elderly locals and have them made-up and styled as Mafalda and Anchise.
– Turn the place into an upscale gay-friendly bed and breakfast for fans of the film.
– Invite Timmy and Luke on a couple vacation.
Here. Enjoy these film school IDs. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b18533fff9779026f5f8a0c14d71dc66de722a9a9934bce346aea787bd35f46.jpg
These are glorious. They look like average punks.
I went with…
Roma
A Star is Born
BlackKklansman
Green Book
The Favourite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
Black Panther
Vice
Mary Poppins Returns
Animated
The Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-Man into the Spiderverse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch
Our apologies, we were already drunk two days before New Year’s in the states!
Required name and email fields have been added to the contest form. Please resubmit your entry if you’re one of the 50 or so who had already done so – there was no way to track who submitted what, so I had to purge whatever entries we had already.
only 2 days before? I don’t think so, you’ve been drunk beyond that, just look at the Trumpeteer hahaha 😉 sorry, bad taste joke, I know
As it’s new year, (happy new year, everyone!), I thought I’d list the best new films I watched in 2018:
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Burning
3. Roma
4. Phantom Thread
5. Shoplifters
6. Lady Bird
7. Long Day’s Journey Into Night
8. The Florida Project
9. Cold War
10. Madeline’s Madeline
11. Minding the Gap
12. First Reformed
13. Suspiria
14. Wonderstruck
15. Zama
16. Le livre d’image
17. Birds of Passage
18. Asako I & II
19. The Favourite
20. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
21. The Other Side of the Wind
22. Three Faces
23. Foxtrot
24. The Rider
25. Private Life
26. Sorry to Bother You
27. Hereditary
28. The House That Jack Built
29. BlacKkKlansman
30. Black Panther
31. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
32. The Green Fog
33. Ash Is the Purest White
34. Widows
35. Donbass
36. Leto
37. Isle of Dogs
38. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Three consensuses in our Top 5 (Call me by your name is also my number 1, Phantom Thread and Roma both in Top 5) – and I´m going to see “Shoplifters” on Sunday! Well, it MUST be a hit! 😉
Great list, even though I have not seen some on your list. The best for me still are number fur and nine. Not seen a better film this than those. But I still need to see some big films.
UPDATED RESULTS of my pundit prediction spreadsheet. Here’s where things stand on the last day of 2018! (Remember, I gave each contender 5 points for a #1 ranking, 4 points for #2, etc.)
NOTE: If you’re wondering why some point totals seem to have gone down weirdly this month, it’s because I took out the predictions of six pundits who haven’t updated their lists since Oct/Nov. (That makes a big difference for a frontrunner like ASIB; if you take out six pundits who each had it ranked first or second, that’s taking away up to 60 points from its total.) But these pundits were skewing the results with their months-old predictions, so I decided it was for the best; I’ll put them back in if and when they decide to update their rankings.
PICTURE
1. A Star Is Born – 402 (-38)
2. Roma – 362 (-29)
3. Green Book – 302 (-6)
4. The Favourite – 279 (+7)
5. BlacKkKlansman – 239 (+28) — WAS #6
6. Black Panther – 235 (+47) — WAS #7
7. If Beale Street Could Talk – 168 (-79) — WAS #5
8. Vice – 133 (-11)
9. Mary Poppins Returns – 72 (+22) — WAS #11
10. First Man – 60 (-59) — WAS #9
———-
11. Bohemian Rhapsody – 28 (+27) — WAS #23
12. First Reformed – 21 (-4) — WAS #13
13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 17 (-33) — WAS #11
14. A Quiet Place – 13 (-2)
14. Widows – 13 (-53) — WAS #10
———-
OUT: Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace
DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuarón – 206 (-1)
2. Bradley Cooper – 150 (-2)
3. Spike Lee – 109 (+27)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – 81 (+15) — WAS #5
5. Barry Jenkins – 28 (-41) — WAS #4
———-
6. Peter Farrelly – 24 (-9)
7. Ryan Coogler – 20 (+7) — WAS #9
8. Damien Chazelle – 10 (-13) — WAS #7
9. Debra Granik – 4 (+1) — WAS #11
9. Marielle Heller – 4 (+2) — WAS #12
9. Adam McKay – 4 (-10) — WAS #8
———-
OUT: Steve McQueen
ACTOR
1. Bradley Cooper – 185 (-8)
2. Christian Bale – 154 (-7)
3. Viggo Mortensen – 120 (-10)
4. Rami Malek – 109 (+34)
5. Ethan Hawke – 48 (-5)
———-
6. John David Washington – 19 (+14) — WAS #10
7. Willem Dafoe – 5 (-7)
7. Ryan Gosling – 5 (-10) — WAS #6
9. Robert Redford – 1 (-9) — WAS #8
———-
OUT: Lucas Hedges, Clint Eastwood, Hugh Jackman
ACTRESS
1. Lady Gaga – 180 (-1)
2. Olivia Colman – 158 (+12)
3. Glenn Close – 143 (+1)
4. Melissa McCarthy – 83 (-8)
5. Yalitza Aparicio – 33 (+5) — WAS #6
———-
6. Emily Blunt – 30 (+7) — WAS #7
7. Viola Davis – 7 (-26) — WAS #5
8. Toni Collette – 4 (-3) — WAS #9
9. Carey Mulligan – 3 (-1) — WAS #11
9. Saoirse Ronan – 3 (-2)) — WAS #10
———-
OUT: Nicole Kidman
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mahershala Ali – 184 (-9)
2. Richard E. Grant – 154 (+25) — WAS #3
3. Sam Elliott – 133 (-19) — WAS #2
4. Timothée Chalamet – 76 (-4)
5. Adam Driver – 61 (+30) — WAS #6
———-
6. Michael B. Jordan – 16 — WAS #7
7. Sam Rockwell – 12 (-31) — WAS #5
8. Steve Carell – 4 (-2) — WAS #9
9. Daniel Kaluuya – 3 (-8) — WAS #8
10. Brian Tyree Henry – 1 (-2)
10. Jonathan Pryce – 1 (-1) — WAS #12
———-
OUT: Russell Hornsby
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Regina King – 188
2. Amy Adams – 150 (+2)
3. Emma Stone – 121 (+7)
4. Rachel Weisz – 106 (+23)
5. Claire Foy – 31 (-18)
———-
6. Nicole Kidman – 13 (-15)
7. Margot Robbie – 10 (-2) — WAS #9
7. Michelle Yeoh – 10 (-3)
9. Marina de Tavira – 4 (-9) — WAS #7
9. Elizabeth Debicki – 4 (+1) — WAS #12
———-
OUT: Linda Cardellini
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. BlacKkKlansman – 185 (+6)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk – 154 (+11)
3. A Star Is Born – 121 (-3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? – 104 (+7)
5. Black Panther – 20 (+11) — WAS #8
———-
6. First Man – 17 (-2)
7. Leave No Trace – 15 (+7) — WAS #10
8. Beautiful Boy – 8 (-5) — WAS #7
8. The Death Of Stalin – 8 (-1)
10. Widows – 7 (-31) — WAS #5
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. The Favourite – 186 (+12)
2. Roma – 136 (-14)
3. Green Book – 126 (+4)
4. First Reformed – 71 (+8) — WAS #5
5. Vice – 62 (-15) — WAS #4
———-
6. Eighth Grade – 53 (+6)
7. A Quiet Place – 7 (-9)
8. Capernaum – 1 — WAS #11
8. Private Life – 1 (+1)
8. Sorry To Bother You – 1 (-1) — WAS #9
———-
OUT: Stan And Ollie, The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs
please don’t put Yalitza Aparicio on the best actress group..
Missing email form , so mine is jasonmovieguy@yahoo.com
Thanks Sasha 🙂
MY PGA PICKS
A Star is Born
Crazy Rich Asians
Green Book
Roma
First Man
BlackKklansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
The Favourite
Vice
ANIMATED TIE BREAKER
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Incredibles 2
Spider-Man- Into the Spider Verse
Early Man
Please GreenBook and Vice should not be nominated The Rider and First informed should be.
Bohemian Rhapsody should be an option
Bohemian Rhapsody was an oversight on this form that has been corrected. However, it’s too late to do anything on the DGA form lest we purge all 300 submissions we already have received so please use the “Other” field as a write-in if you want to predict Bryan Singer for the DGA.
Bohemian Rhapsody was an oversight on this form that has been corrected. However, it’s too late to do anything on the DGA form lest we purge all 300 submissions we already have received so please use the “Other” field as a write-in if you want to predict Bryan Singer for the DGA.
Missing the email field