The Producers Guild, which announces their nominations tomorrow, is the only other major industry group that uses the preferential ballot to determine nominees other than the Academy. They offer their 7,000 or so members ten slots to choose the best of the year, while the Academy only offers their 7,000 or so members five slots. With five, choices become much more narrowed. With ten, there is slightly more flexibility. Even still, there is a pretty good overlap between the PGA and the Academy.
To get a full picture of how the films are chosen throughout the year, it’s important to look at the other groups that gather up a list of top ten films: the Broadcast Film Critics (Critics Choice, or BFCA), American Film Institute (AFI), and the National Board of Review (NBR). The other major groups – like the BAFTA or the DGA or even the Golden Globes choose just five. And while five choices are informative, especially where the directors are concerned, they can’t really help in terms of figuring out the broader spectrum of which films might push through and which ones won’t.
Is there a film that hit all of the stops but missed the Oscars? Yes, Saving Mr. Banks. Are there films that didn’t make it on any of the other top ten lists but made it into the Oscars? Yes, Amour is one. Philomena is another. And so is the Blind Side. What those three films illustrate very very well is how much actors can play a role in choosing Best Picture. The acting branch is almost double any other branch. Philomena, The Blind Side, and Amour all had bravura performances by actors. When you want to know which film MIGHT cross over to Oscar, think about the actors. It’s not 100% a slam dunk way to go about it, but it CAN work sometimes.
Otherwise, you have a pretty good idea of how it MIGHT go. What I notice from looking at these charts is that many of these films (or at least a few of them) made it onto lists before the critics had a stab at them. That is true of Vice and of Mary Poppins Returns. As such, it’s harder to gauge what their ultimate fate will be. Other films that are tricky calls right now include A Quiet Place, which definitely has had no trouble landing on top ten lists, but it will need a large number of Academy voters supporting it, with at least 200 of them have to choose it as their number one. It should ace the PGA, but its ultimate Oscar fate is uncertain.
Films that seem like they’re headed to the PGA right now would be, in order of likelihood:
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
Roma
Green Book
The Favourite
BlacKkKlansman
The probably will be in list would be:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Bohemian Rhapsody
The high probability list would be:
A Quiet Place
Vice
Crazy Rich Asians
The outside long shots would be:
First Man
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
That totals 14, so four are going to have to miss (although just last year PGA did nominate 11 films). Since they use the preferential ballot, we might be looking at a situation of passion, as in, which films are going to end up the number one choice of many? I am hoping against hope that either First Man, Eighth Grade, or First Reformed makes the cut but my more rational mind says they won’t. And I might edge Vice slightly ahead of A Quiet Place because of the producing team behind it (Brad Pitt and Dede Gardner at Plan B). The Big Short WON the PGA, after all.
Both Bohemian Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians are not on any of these lists. They are featured prominently at the Globes, however, and at the SAG ensemble, which are early clues that they could possibly be figured in here.
But I don’t know, Mary Poppins could be the one that drops off. The Favourite, which did not earn the expected SAG ensemble nod, also might prove a wee bit problematic. Another film might pop up, like Can You Ever Forgive Me, or I suppose it’s probably too much to hope for that Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse lands in the top ten (though it absolutely would deserve to).
In terms of our elusive Best Picture winner, in almost every year except last year, the winner was always named by all of these groups. Last year, The Shape of Water was not on NBR’s top ten, neither was Three Billboards. That broke a record. That means we can’t know 100% whether our winner is one chosen by all groups once PGA rings in tomorrow, but we’ll be closer to knowing. At least it mostly confirms what we suspected all along: that the winner is probably either Black Panther, A Star Is Born, or Roma, while Green Book is still in it. Folding in Globes and SAG ensemble you are looking at a Black Panther vs. A Star Is Born showdown, though Ryan Coogler has to be on the DGA’s five — which I can’t imagine he won’t be at this rate.
Here are the charts and our predictions. It’s all happening!
Our predictions:
A Star Is Born — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores, Ryan Adams, Jazz Tangcay
BlacKkKlansman – Stone, Flores, Adams, Tangcay
Roma – Stone, Flores, Adams, Tangcay
Black Panther — Stone, Flores, Adams, Tangcay
The Favourite – Stone, Flores, Adams, Tangcay
Green Book – Stone, Flores, Adams, Tangcay
A Quiet Place — Flores, Adams, Tangcay
Eighth Grade — Stone, Adams
First Man — Stone, Adams
Bohemian Rhapsody — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
Vice — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
Crazy Rich Asians — Tangcay, Flores
If Beale Street Could Talk — Adams
Mary Poppins Returns — Tangcay
So Marshall killed… 🙂
Crazy rich asians is the feel good story for the producers this year so I think it will get in. They took the chance with theatrical release instead of netflix and it paid off with a bunch of money and pop culture significance.
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
alt. Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Quiet Place, Eighth Grade, Leave No Trace
Mary Poppins Returns and especially First Man are vulnerable.
Glenn Close and Malek have just won the Satellite Awards. In the comedy actress category, Colman beat Gaga. Dafoe won as Best Drama Actor. The cerimony will be on February.
What time are the nominations announced tomorrow?
(alphabetical order)
01. BlacKkKlansman
02. Black Panther
03. Bohemian Rhapsody
04. Crazy Rich Asians
05. The Favourite
06. Green Book
07. A Quiet Place
08. Roma
09. A Star is Born
10. Vice
The last, 10th, spot is between Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade and If Beale Street Could Talk. I went went with CRA in the end because its such huge hit with all asian cast. Mary Poppins and First Man are long shots imho.
Crazy Rich Asians seems like the exact type of film to get nominated at the PGAs but not the Oscars.
Yeah. But if it gets PGA, it will have PGA, SAG, GG and will become quite strong contender for BP with this combo.
The problem is what other nomination would it get besides Picture? Despite the SAG Ensemble bid, it still couldnt get Michelle Yeoh in supporting (ditto at the Globes, where she really should have gotten in) so she needs a miracle at this point. It’s not expected to overcome larger players for Screenplay. Chu isnt on anyone’s radar for Director. So maybe it gets into Production Design? I know that the bottom tier nominees dont need a ton of nominations to make it in in the era of an expanded BP field (Blind Side, The Post, etc) but what group is pushing it through? If the actors really love it, they could push it through with one acting nom, but then we would have seen Yeoh pop up somewhere.
FWIW, these are my exact predictions.
All of them – wow! Great job!
Are we even certain PGA uses preferential voting when nominating? They do when deciding the winner, but I’ve never seen confirmation (or anyone but Sasha say) that’s how they nominate.
In fact looking at what they nominate I’d say it’s unlikely they do, they nominate broad studio films rather than passion picks. The tie for 10th place (why they nominated 11) also becomes far less likely if they using preferential rather than straight plurality.
I have the same predix as Jazz but do think Vice has the production team and the buzz to make the lineup and certainly the Best Picture field. Trivia buffs, has the leading Globe nominee ever missed a PGA nom? And Poppins was stronger before the opening weekend, but also before the review embargo and before more everyday audiences saw it. I think Crazy, Bohemian, and Quiet won’t miss here for various reasons. Sadly no one is predicting Firdt Reformed and yet Hawke is way more deserving than Washington and the film is definitely stronger than half of the top contenders.
“Trivia buffs, has the leading Globe nominee ever missed a PGA nom?”
Carol comes to mind at least
That’s rare, though. “Carol” is unique in many ways. “Vice” is a very different beast and will appeal much more to the Academy than “Carol” did. I can’t see “Vice” missing PGA which “Carol” did and was a sign of weakness.
I don’t think it’s entirely correct to say that the actors pushed Amour to the Oscars BP nod. It was also nominated in screenplay, and unlike Philomena and Blind Side, it also had Best Director nod. If anything I think it’s the Academy directors that pushed that film in. Sometimes the Academy has a little more of an elitist taste than the Guilds.
I believe it was directors branch who pushed it hard. If it was up to them, I think Haneke would’ve won BD that year. They left out a lot of big names that year. That branch is probably the best in the Academy.
The Rider is the best American film of 2018 and will not be nominated .If Beale street could talk is not nominated it would be anotherCarol Neither Green Book and vice are not among the top 20 films of the year.
Green Book will be nominated, Vice will be a joke if it’s nominated.
Hindsight has been very harsh to the Academy’s choices for nominations this decade. There are dozens of films that are more than worthy but might scare off voters. So they retreat to comfort food platitudes of the past rather than confronting the reality of the present.
It’s possible that the two most acclaimed indie films this might be nominated. Beale and “First Reformed” are not certain to be nominated, although the former looks far more to be nominated.
Just a reminder: Shoplifters is incredible, and perhaps Kore-eda’s best.
It could be this year’s Amour, if its distributor is working it.
SO GOOD.
2018 movies I’ve caught up with and liked: Mortal Engines, The Predator, Blockers, The House With a Clock in Its Walls and Zhang Yimou’s Shadow which is possibly required viewing.
Liked Blockers and House With a Clock In Its Walls.
Haven’t seen Mortal Engines.
The Predator was terrible, sorry to say.
Finally someone who doesn’t live in the critic’s bubble
The formula to the PGA nominations based on the data above is take all the locks for best picture, snub some of the more arthouse contenders then add some mainstream films that won’t get nominated for Best Picture.
From the charts it seems like the PGA usually snubs exactly one film that hit all three before it. Most of the time it’s an “artsier” piece, but not always. So it would make sense to expect If Beale Street Could Talk to miss? Or it could be Mary Poppins, as it’s not quite as successful at the box office as some people would’ve liked.
I think it’s possible that “If Beale Street Could talk” might miss. It’s from the same studio as “Vice” and I don’t think Plan B have ever had two films nominated in BP in the same year. The latter is much stronger, I think, so that kind of puts Beale in the threat zone. And there is usually one film by A24 so either FR or EG might get in. The latter looks most likely at the Oscars. That’s the only reason I am suspecting Beale could but it has hits pretty much everything to be at least a nominee. It just cannot win BP anymore.
I think this is where Beale Street misses. It’s more of an art house film than many of the main contenders this year, and my sense is that people really love specific parts of the movie (Regina King, the cinematography) but as a whole they “respect” it more than “love” it. And love/passion is important on a preferential ballot as we have seen.
And though Mary Poppins didnt win its opening weekend, it still has buzz going and performed within Disney’s projections. Its on target for a modern musical film. I also think it has a “love it” aspect to it because it makes people feel warm and fuzzy and nostalgic, so they feel good about voting for it. Vice is perhaps the opposite, the film is audacious and angry and boisterous, but it presents a signature style from Adam McKay that enough people will love to put it on their ballots. It stands out and has people talking. I just dont think Beale Street has people talking in the same way, and it misses with this guild.