Now that the PGA has announced, the WGA nominations drop tomorrow, January 7, and the DGA nominations follow the next day. That will give us a mostly complete idea of Oscars 2019, though we pretty much know how it’s all going to go down, give or take a winner here or there.
There are no frontrunners yet, in any category, because there are a lot of different ways this race can still go, and many forces driving it in different directions. There is the popular film category debacle that has awards voters putting their support behind “popular” blockbusters. There is the unprecedented array of black filmmakers telling black stories that is a big deal this year. There is the Netflix factor, the superhero franchise factor. There is the money made factor. There is the “white woke Oscar” factor driving people away from some films and towards others. Virtue signaling reaching an all-time high and making it impossible to tell what people really think: just what they want other people to think they think has led to some confusion all around as to how this will all end up.
Can the WGA offer some clues as to how it might go? Maybe.
First off, here are the ineligible screenplays:
Original: The Favourite, Sorry to Bother You, Hereditary, Isle of Dogs, At Eternity’s Gate, Blindspotting, The Other Side of the World, All Is True, The Rider, Stan and Ollie, The Death of Stalin, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernum
Adapted: The Sisters Brothers, Leave No Trace, Incredibles 2, Disobedience
Second, the screenplay award is almost always the secondary award for Best Picture. Screenplay is tied to Best Picture lately even more than director. That is true of the Oscars and can be true (though not necessarily) for the WGA.
Last year, all of the Best Picture heat was in Original Screenplay. This year, the heat appears to be in Adapted, if you believe it’s down to A Star Is Born vs. Black Panther vs. BlacKkKlansman, with Roma being the standout original offering.
Here is how we think it will go:
Adapted:
A Star is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters — Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores, Jazz Tangcay
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Ryan Adams
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins — Stone, Flores, Adams
Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty — Stone, Flores, Adams
Black Panther, Ryan Coogler — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
First Man — Tangcay, Adams
Crazy Rich Asians — Tangcay
Widows — Adams
Original:
Green Book, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Adams
First Reformed, Paul Schrader — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Adams
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron — Stone, Flores, Tangcay, Adams
Vice, Adam McKay — Stone, Flores, Tangcay
Eighth Grade, Bo Burnham — Stone, Flores, Adams
A Quiet Place — Tangcay
Private Life — Adams
Wait a minute, isn’t Death of Stalin adapted?
I certainly thought it was…
There’s really no point to these awards without The Death of Stalin and The Favourite.
The Favourite absolutely. I found The Death of Stalin rather uneven, but fair enough.
It’s sad that the best screenplays of the year are ineligible. And the not sobgood ones are. I hope the WGA can fix their eligibility rules for a more inclusive consideration.
Is Bohemian Rhapsody eligible?
After tonight, I won’t be surprised if it ends up getting a nod.
Disappointed that Leave No Trace and The Death of Stalin are ineligible.
As am I…
Lets get a thread going red carpets onnnnnn!!!
We’re consolidating the red carpet foreplay into our Globes TBA post.
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2019/01/05/updating-live-golden-globes-winners/
For some reason the post is not prominent at all on the site yet. You have to scroll down a fair bit before you find it on a “sub-layout” of sorts. I’m sure you guys are working on it.
I got busy and forgot to thank you for bringing that to my attention, Bryce.
Jazz had prepared that post for us hours ago, so when we pulled the trigger to publish, it went into the queue with an earlier timestamp.
I would not not have noticed if you hadn’t said something. You’re tonight’s unsung hero.
Would LOVE to see Mr. Tangcay’s FIRST MAN predicted come true. Sadly some of the best screenplays this year like the ones for THE FAVOURITE, THE RIDER THE SHOPLIFTERS, CAPERNAUM and some others aren’t eligible. The predictions here do look right on the money though.