ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade, Written by Bo Burnham; A24
Green Book, Written by Nick Vallelonga & Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly; Universal Pictures
A Quiet Place, Screenplay by Bryan Woods & Scott Beck and John Krasinski, Story by Bryan Woods & Scott Beck; Paramount Pictures
Roma, Written by Alfonso Cuarón; Netflix
Vice, Written by Adam McKay; Annapurna Pictures
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Blackkklansman, Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, Based on the book by Ron Stallworth; Focus Features
Black Panther, Written by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Based on the Marvel Comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Based on the book by Lee Israel; Fox Searchlight
If Beale Street Could Talk, Screenplay by Barry Jenkins, Based on the novel by James Baldwin; Annapurna Pictures
A Star is Born, Screenplay by Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters, Based on the 1954 screenplay by Moss Hart and the 1976 screenplay by John Gregory Dunne & Joan Didion and Frank Pierson, Based on a story by William Wellman and Robert Carson; Warner Bros.
DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
Bathtubs Over Broadway, Written by Ozzy Inguanzo & Dava Whisenant; Focus Features
Fahrenheit 11/9, Written by Michael Moore; Briarcliff Entertainment
Generation Wealth, Written by Lauren Greenfield; Amazon Studios
In Search of Greatness, Written by Gabe Polsky; Art of Sport
VIDEOGAME WRITING
Assassin’s Creed Odyssey, Associate Narrative Directors Matthew Zagurak, Joel Janisse, James Richard Mittag; Narrative Director Melissa MacCoubrey; Story by Jonathan Dumont, Melissa MacCoubrey, Hugo Giard; Scriptwriters Madeleine Hart, Betty Robertson, Jesse Scoble, Diana Sherman, Kelly Bender, Jojo Chia, Ian Fun, Zachary M. Parris, Ken Williamson, Daniel Bingham, Jordan Lemos, Simon Mackenzie, Katelyn MacMullin, Susan Patrick, Alissa Ralph, Stephen Rhodes; Team Lead Writer Sam Gill; AI Writers Jonathan Flieger, Kimberly Ann Sparks; Ubisoft Quebec
Batman: The Enemy Within, Episode 5-Same Stitch, Lead Writer James Windeler; Written by Meghan Thornton, Ross Beeley, Lauren Mee; Story by Meghan Thornton, Michael Kirkbride; Telltale Games
God of War, Written by Matt Sophos, Richard Zangrande Gaubert, Cory Barlog; Story and Narrative Design Lead Matt Sophos; Story and Narrative Design Richard Zangrande Gaubert; Narrative Design Orion Walker, Adam Dolin; Sony Interactive Entertainment
Marvel’s Spider-Man, Story Lead Jon Paquette; Writers Benjamin Arfmann, Kelsey Beachum; Co-Written by Christos Gage; Additional Story Contributions by Dan Slott; Insomniac Games & Sony Interactive Entertainment
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire, Narrative Designers Alex Scokel, Eric Fenstermaker, Kate Dollarhyde, Megan Starks, Olivia Veras, Paul Kirsch; Additional Writing Tony Evans, John Schmautz, Casey Hollingshead, Nitai Poddar; Narrative Design Leads Carrie Patel, Josh Sawyer; Obsidian Entertainment
So THE FAVOURITE will bump off A QUIET PLACE it seems… I didn’t even realize FIRST REFORMED was missing until I read it in the comments… I could still see it getting in even if Hawke doesn’t.
Oh yeah… UGH BLACK PANTHER… I’m glad they’re including comic movies in these awards, but INFINITY WAR is the much better adaptation.
ASIB it clear to me represents nothing more than a rehash of a rehash of old style dated Hollywood in film. With outdated cleche dripping values . This film.does not deserve it adapted script recognition. It what we can revisionist once understandable three times? Uh uh …further more majority people commenting hardly embracing ASIB this awards season .
Yes globes got it right ( for drama) but just saw Mary Poppins returns ( to which we marked as film to define 3 yrs me and my lady together ) and oh boy will i be furious with academy if this superb near flawless masterwork does not get at least 11 oscat nominations- that how much I loved it meeting expectations which is extremely high praise indeed considering it sequel to a classic . and Emily blunt amongst my top 3 favourite actresses of my generation along with Jessica Chastain and Margot Robbie. And she was unfairly snubbed best actress musical or comedy. I mean seriously? Anything prior this Blunt did was so far removed from singing and dancing not funny. But wow did she nail it. She knew not to try outdo Julia Andrews stunning legacy , she knew build on Andrews trademarks and create slight variations .of Mary Poppins legacy ms. Andrews left world with while adding her own touch it was masterstroke decision both by rob Marshall ( whom I have say ” Chicago” Oscar win is officially part of oh too few good choices for Oscar off my all too long hit list if Oscars disappointment in their poor judgement who wins best picture with appalling strike out rate of horrifying 75-80% of poor unacceptable outcomes most Oscar seasons in post ROTK era.
But Mary Poppins Returns brings back authenticity builds on it own world much as Emily Blunt performance is contemporary in her expression new linguistic terms twists to Julia Andrews stunning rendition of original Mary Poppins. Resists excess modern day social commentary while retaining financial anxiety ( in part problem many face with today ) but never losing it context . a modern dilemma reflected today in otherwise masterfully executed traditional trademark Disney authentic traditional story telling mode.
Suffice to say Emily Blunt absolutely thrives in lighthearted singing dancing no. I won’t call it masterpiece ( that be unfair on exceedingly high standard original this sequel derives from but all too often I say sequel to classic bombs doesn’t make cut well Mary Poppins returns indeed does not and soars forging it new generation story in old style england for new generation for new/ old fans alike from original . I not surprised it deserves truly long stay I’m box office it deserves box office success indeed way more ambitious risky and deserving of being frontrunner which unfortunately it not since losing it globes win . but gee Mary Poppins returns comes damn close bucking trend of failed sequels to classics let alone forging it own legacy .. A masterwork almost masterpiece no excuses Emily blunt should win Oscar best actress lord help Oscar if she doesn’t
often unfortunately / fortunately globes get it wrong. Fortunate for this year because Mary Poppins returns despite not getting producers guild nomination has strong chance being elevated at baftas being strongly British obviously in it setting production , etc unfortunate cos ASIB still regarded ( but I sceptical amount of numerous noms in guilds may exceed it actual wins snub for gaga at globes is significant given she very style they go for. There no way on earth of pple book ga- ga who far from oy musician to turn actor in Hollywood history is one of best by musician turned actor far from it. And that likely work against her.
No way she deserves win song and actor Oscars for one person. That she nominated song and actress means voters likely spread load. But cos ASIB limited appeal at awards worthy level.is a ) restricted by fact it rehash remake times 3 hence most unoriginal therefore flawed choice Oscar win best / director / esp screenplay.
B) if main actress doesn’t win signs ga ga highly vulnerable in best actress to worthy Glenn close ( unbelievably not won Oscar in her long decorated career ) hugely successful.transformation .of Emily blunt to full on wise cracking charismatic singing dancing diva and every other alternative far more challenging role from more original daring movie compared to ASIB. If ga ga wins ( looking shaky at best as her sure being front runner and we know SAG win does not guarantee nowadays same outcome in acting categories anyway esp when that actor also nominated best song ) then ASIB chances winning grow massively. But if gaga loses way open to other contenders .
Seems the green book may be it. But I maintain ASIB while massive step backward if it wins is considerably higher rated than far riskier road embracing Roma best picture or best director the anti- big screen big screen experience that Oscar might seriously considering embracing diversifying Oscar future in wrong way is what I fear more than ASIB winning.
Ga ga snub is significant she anchor centre to film . she type globes embrace celebrity at celebrity of celebrity’s own awards and couldn’t win best actress ..hopefully opens way black panther to win but watch Mary Poppins returns universal appeal I have it as dark horse best oic locked desrvedky firmly no. 2 after black panther.
My list as follows in preference updated . with deserved chances win most awards it nominatex for inc big ones out of 100 updated too
1. Black Panther 98/100-98%
2. Mary Poppins returns 95/100-94%
3. Blackkklansman 90/100 -90%
4. FIRST Man 87/100-87%
5. Vice 83/100- 83%
6. The green book 76/100- 76%
7. A private war 70/100-70%
8. The favourite 64/100- 64%
( note no star is born as I just feel it most unhelpful to academy future public rep. To embrace triple remake. But it unofficially at no. 9
considerably above my bottom ranked ” Roma” (no.10 that a but further confuse divide what Oscar supposed stand for break most sacred of traditions big screen movie embbraced on big screen it simply total joke that Oscar feel several other films can’t fill in no.10 slot given moat still occur in calendar year on big screen .
I considering replacing 8th position best picture major awards in my top 8 with either ” the front runner” or ” death of Stalin” we see
Roma gets a screenplay nomination and First Reformed doesn1t What a joke and Paul Schrader has never been nominated for an Oscar .
The only reason ASIB got a nomination here is because Stalin was DQ’d. The Oscars will get the noms right. There was no script for ASIB, just a lot of “actory” moments.
And the second half of the film is just downright terrible, it’s like Bradley Cooper quit directing halfway and was replaced by his B unit
Plus he forgot that people went to that movie to see Gaga, not him. A mistake almost on the level of Nolan making Batman a de facto guest star in Dark Knight
To be more specific, Bradley got a screenplay with lines that he wrote for himself, but there was no script for Gaga. He told her they were both going to improvise.
Honest and for truly?
I’m lying. But it seems plausible, right?
Considering the first 40 minutes ran on and on with no plot points, it does seem plausible
What am I missing here? How is Black Panther consistently nominated for all these awards? Is it not just like the other Marvel movies? I’m getting a bit of award season fatgiue here, someone help spark the light again
It’s not like the other Marvel movies in fairness to it. One of my favorites actually, up there with Captain America: The First Avenger and Captain America: The WInter Soldier, two of the best Marvel movies on my book. It;s just that Black Pnather has sucky VFX. But still the artistry in the film is undeniably better (best actually when we speak of Costumes, Musical Score) than your typical Marvel fare.
Why are The Death of Stalin and The Favourite ineligible again?
Non-WGA signatory productions
🙂 In less-lawyerly language, the screenwriters are not members of the Writers Guild. Writers who don’t join the Guild don’t get to play in the clubhouse.
It is the BAFTA nominations in 7 hours. Any predictions…?
That eligibility thing is so ridiculous. The fact that The Favourite, a film of pure brilliance, especially when it comes to writing, “is not eligible” here is pure horseshit. They should have changed their bloody rules years ago, this is just stupid.
Just a quick note: That headline needs to be corrected. The WGA is not choosing the “Best Screenplay” they are choosing the “Best Screenplay that Conforms to Their Rules.” Probably why they don’t say “Best” on their own page.
Being a member of a guild is sort of a no brainer condition for a guild award, no?
(EDIT: I originally thought Black Panther and ASIB are the only two to hit every guild so far, but Rodrigo helpfully fact-checked — it’s just ASIB, as BP missed ACE). So, I have to think that ASIB still in the running. As we know, what the industry likes is most important in Phase II. With such a mess of a race right now, I still think no one knows much and many films could have a surprise Phase II. Some thoughts:
I wonder if A Quiet Place and/or First Man can show up for Best Picture. They both have some guild love (A Quiet Place even has the stronger of the two). Wouldn’t surprise me. Either way, a decent sign for Emily Blunt to keep being possible. I still think she might even win SAG, with King not in the running there.
As the dust has settled a bit from last night, I’m still thinking A Star is Born or Roma are still the most likely two options to win (as of today). A Star is Born has shown up via all industry metrics so far. Roma has done well too — it’s biggest weaknesses not being its quality but the same ones that have always been its challenges (b+w, Netflix, foreign-language, etc); of course it’s major strength is it’s very likely to win Director, but I’m still skeptical of the stuffy Academy giving their Best Picture to a Netflix film (of course…until they do). The barriers did come down fast in TV awards, so it’s a matter of time…
Black Panther is doing very well in industry — though, I’m still skeptical of a superhero film actually winning. That said, if ASIB loses its luster, the traditional barriers for either a film like Roma or a film like Black Panther could/would likely fall. Blackkklansman actually seems to be the next strongest with industry guilds so far, though it doesn’t seem to (currently) have the mojo/attention of the others. But, with a high profile director, that never hurts its chances of remaining in the conversation.
That leaves last night’s winners: BR and GB. I’m still skeptical of both. Both are facing immense backlash, and I think the Academy is much more leery of that in Phase II than the Globes are in Phase I. Look at Three Billboards last year. It’s all but guaranteed that neither the DGA nor the Academy will touch Bryan Singer with a directing nomination — that makes it quite hard for it to win if it’s not in either place. (Ben Affleck still won DGA even when he was omitted by the Academy. Sure, it worked for Driving Miss Daisy, but that’s it), but I don’t think they’ll touch it with an actual win – especially with the reviews, which they’ll care more about. Beyond the backlash for Green Book, it doesn’t have quite as strong of a showing in below-the-line guilds/support. Not prohibitive, but that wide support always helps (see TSoW over 3BB last year, etc.). Finally, while I think Farrelly may show up as a nominee at the more populist DGA, the rather prickly Academy Director’s branch loves omitting directors/films like his. That hit 3BB last year, but I think they’ll be even more stuck up toward Farrelly as a director. Just an ongoing hunch on that one.
Just where I see it – but perhaps I’m not good at this. 🙂
Black Panther missed ACE.
Yep. Thanks! I misread it.
I’d just like to say Roma hardly missed SAG considering there’s not an experienced actor in the cast. Ok, it’s no Slumdog, but those kids were cute and you had older actors too.
You could also argue based on Shape of Water’s SAG miss last year that Green Book hardly missed SAG as primarily a double-header—and then the same goes for Favourite.
Also I agree with your thoughts on the Globe winners. Agree Farrelly is a typical DGA-but-not-Oscar choice. I sure hope Lanthimos gets both nominations. I think DGA will help us settle on the top 5 or so films going into Oscar noms, reiterating of course that Singer will miss regardless.
I’d agree on Roma’s SAG miss in that I don’t think it’s a deal-breaker by any means for the reason you note. It does give a free opportunity for the limelight to one of the others that night – but I think its other barriers are more of an issue (or, at least a question mark, if not a barrier).
I also agree on the Green Book/SAG comment – though, Green Book strikes me still more as an actor/screenplay threat. It’s more akin to 3BB to me than TSoW.
Did you notice though the GB team’s stealth campaign last night for Cardellini as “the heart and soul” of the film?
I laughed so hard. She has around two scenes.
lol but Jacki Weaver says hi. There’s a fifth slot up for grabs. But yeah, it’s not likely happening.
A lot more than three… but, of course, ““the heart and soul of the film” is a clear exaggeration.
I did. It did catch my attention that the Best Picture love last night went to movies with all male leads (BR and GB) – over some of the presumed favorites in those categories (ASIB + Favourite). The long-time Oscar viewer me wondered if all those references were to help make the film seem less of a two-guy picture.
I am confirming my belief that A Quiet Place is going to get Blunt an Oscar nomination. For Supporting Actress still. Close is not losing. If anything, Gaga is still (slightly) competitive but I still say because she wins Best Song, voters are assured of this and know Close is their horse.
Supporting Actress can go many directions. King would easily have won SAG had she been nominated. That’s how the herd mentality works. But she wasn’t. So her narrative so far has stopped at the Golden Globes. Unless the BAFTA’s nominate her (which is my prediction). Rewarding her is another case.
Emily Blunt is up for two (2) SAG awards and I don’t think she goes home empty handed. So she wins for A Quiet Place. Again, I don’t know why everyone assumed Amy Adams was automatically the default choice other then ‘well she’s never won before’. Going over her resume of nominations, Juno aside- they’re ALL from ensemble movies where she got swept up with the cast. When it comes to holding her own (Arrival, Big Eyes, Enchanted), the academy passes. She’s just too vanilla, and always suffers from being up against a costar or stronger competition. In this case, I don’t see Vice doing as well as it did at the Globes. Bale’s cold speech alone tells me this is Malek’s to lose, and although I don’t see Blunt getting nodded for Poppins at the Oscars, she is getting in for AQP. And supporting is where they’ll place her.
These are solid WGA nods, though The Favourite is poised to bump something off- and I think it easily could be A Quiet Place or Eighth Grade. Even though the Oscar branch usually goes for an indie in the writing categories, they might skip the latter in favor of the more popular film to validate Blunt’s triumph and their overall “Popular Movie” theme.
My hope for Crazy Rich Asians might be stalled here since if it gets in for Best Picture, where else does it exactly land? I thought Adapted Screenplay. But it’s a very crowded race. I am still not confident A Star Is Born makes the cut there, so I haven’t dropped CRA from that slot. But it’s a longshot. My hopes for this comedic charmer might be dashed Oscar morning and that’s OK. Without hope, you can’t wake up in the morning – especially for awards buffs like ourselves.
So her narrative so far has stopped at the Golden Globes.
It can still continue a little bit longer at BFCA televised awards show. And if Weisz or Stone wins SAG, then I’d say the Oscar is King’s since both of those actresses had already won an Oscar and unlikely to repeat.
I agree about the SAG possibly being one of the Favourite women. I don’t think there’s political pressure in this category since King is absent and I don’t think Adams will win. But I do think Blunt is our winner, so maybe there’s slight political push. I think King is our winner for the Oscar regardless, but without the SAG nod she is not a lock as we had thought before.
The problem with that is I don’t think the favourite women can win precisely because of the way you put that “if Weisz or Stone wins”, which 1? Who knows. That’s just asking for vote splitting unlike say Rockwell last year when we didn’t talk about supporting actor as one of the 3 billboards guys we talked about Rockwell before either even won any awards. Plus they have both won before. Though this is somewhere I could be wrong because I don’t know what the alternative is…
Supporting actress is such a fun race this year though because King, who knows if she’ll even be nominated and if she is can she really win, Amy Adams who should have had an Oscar long before this but it would feel shitty if this is what she won hers for, so actually Blunt isn’t a bad pick. Early on before any awards came out I thought this would be Foy’s year but now I’m not so sure she’ll even be nominated.
I can’t see anyone winning an acting Oscar for a horror movie.
I know this might sound cynical or whatever but BSA category is where they tend to give to a black actress, whenever there’s a contender, to fill the POC quota to make themselves look inclusive.
That’s one of the reasons why I’m hanging on to the King prediction train.
I mean, I don’t disagree with anything you say there. I’ve got King in my predictions still too but I just don’t feel good about it – the point of my post was god knows what’s going to happen because there are big nopes beside everyone.
1. Junebug
2. She was anything but “vanilla” in Arrival, and frankly her snub makes zero sense considering the other above the line nominations it got
I mentioned Juno was the lone exception from my point. She’s great in that. But after that, not as much. Arrival seemed to be trying too much to be like Gravity and I didn’t feel much from Adams. She’s perfectly adequate, but not strong. She’ll get there one day.
1. Juno and Junebug are two different films
2. Arrival is as similar to Gravity as my shoes are to pork chops
Oops horrible mistake. The curse of the two Js in my brain. I meant Junebug (2005).
And we apparently are agreeing to disagree at this point.
I’m still utterly baffled about your comment that Arrival was trying to be like Gravity. Can you explain because honestly I’m wondering if you actually saw either film.
Yes I did. And you’re really making a big deal about minuscule points in my original piece because of your love for Amy Adams it appears.
I never said the movies were trying to be alike. But both the lead female roles in Gravity and Arrival are required to carry their films. Both are in the outer space aesthetic (with Arrival dealing with Aliens, sure). Both roles are grieving for their daughters. From FilmColossus.com’s review and comparison of Gravity, Arrival and Interstellar: ,“The core of Arrival is Amy Adams. Her poise, her determination, her bravery. But there’s a personal journey that I think is the true beauty of the film. This is Adams’s journey with her daughter. Again, very similar to Gravity.”
Again, we can agree to disagree. I was pointing out that she’s never been nominated for a movie she carried solo. Except possibly Junebug, because she was the only character who was intriguing or had energy, plus the fun southern accent. She DID Nail her odd accent in American Hustle, but she was amongst many other nominees.
” but she was amongst many other nominees.”
Technically any Oscar nominee is amongst many other nominees.
Gosh, a female lead with a daughter in both Gravity and Arrival. It’s like plagiarism. Except Arrival has a bit of a temporal logic surprise at the end that makes the two films decidedly dissimilar. And no one is in outer space in Arrival. Now if you had compared it to Contact on the other hand, you and your website reviewer might have been on the mark.
As for your pissy “love for Amy Adams” comment, when you play that grade school debate level of rhetorical flourish, it shows that you’re not really a serious person. Either way, five time Oscar nominee Amy Adams probably doesn’t require either of our stamps of approval to have a successful career.
Look Pete, I wasn’t trying to come off rude at all. I am sorry I came off that way. I def do take this seriously, as I have a YouTube channel dedicated to film and have been a loyal blogger here and on Goldderby for years.
I agree Contact might have been a better example. Jodie Foster’s nuanced performance in 1997 was probably the closest she got to her 5th nomination but unfortunately the film peaked too soon.
I wish Adams HAD won in 2005. I was not a fan of Weisz in The Constant Gardener. I merely was stating my observations of her as an actress and my opinion. That’s what we do on here. She could very well take the SAG and Oscar, and I’ll be wrong. No one knows anything. That was one of Sasha’s earlier slogan’s here that I still remember.
Cheers.
Honestly, I think Blunt upsets in SA
That’s my current prediction. Because of Blunt’s two (2) SAG nominations and overall IT girl status. And A Quiet Place seems to be quietly lurking.
However, Blunt lost the Globe. I didn’t expect her to get nominated for an Oscar for Poppins, but I did think she would win the GG to keep her name and presence in front of voters. Olivia Colman clearly was superior, but I had heard rumors because she didn’t show up last time that voters were leaning towards Blunt.
If Adams wins SAG, it’s very competitive. Ditto for Blunt. In fact, anyone really since King isn’t a factor. But if they choose one of the Favourite women, I would def say King. If they choose Adams or Blunt, it’s a race. One thing Adams has that Blunt does not is the overdue narrative. She’s worked with a LOT of actors, including ones being nominated this year. If she pulls the emotional waves right like Close, it could be hers.
I am glad this year is much more exciting then last year. I am also interested to see if King is nominated and wins BAFTA, or if they too go another way.
I sort of wonder if Blunt falls out of Best Actress and is replaced by Aparicio as Roma continues to hit multiple guilds (SAG was first, so nominating moods can change)
Part of acting is being part of an ensemble.
Not so. Many actors have been nominated for carrying their own films because their performance was the key to the success.
Adams is far from vanilla. She’s ginger.
On a more serious note, she’s reliably a highlight in those ensembles & has shown great diversity.
That being said, I agree that other than Junebug she hasn’t really been a contender to win with any of her nominations.
Still, after so many noms, it creates a narrative (it didn’t help Peter O’Toole or Thelma Ritter, but it certainly worked for Kate Winslet). I do hope they hold on & award her for something truly spectacular, though. preferably in lead.
This year though, if not King, it’s almost certainly Adams. She’s likely up against a past winner (Weisz, way overdue for a second nom), a recent BA winner (Stone) & an unknown 5th. If that 5th is Blunt, I just can’t see an unapologetically genre film like A Quiet Place winning an acting Oscar. Not sure it would be any different at SAG, but they nominated Blunt for Girl on the Train so who knows I guess
Hopefully, this calms some of the Bohemian Rhapsody hysteria, as if it’s now the frontrunner just because the HFPA gave it BP despite only matching with Oscar once in the last five years.
Now, if it unfathomably pops up at DGA, then you can start to worry.
The fear of BR winning Oscar BP is so palpable. 🙂 It has no chance in hell, despite what happened last night.
Hmm this is only making me think even more blunt gets in for a quiet place and not Mary poppins. And where is the favourite???
The Favourite was not eligible.
I’m still carrying a torch for Spider-Man to get a screenplay nom. A man can dream…
A STAR IS BORN is the ONLY movie that has received a nomination from SAG, WGA, ASC, ACE and Art Directors.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e438cb2c96860694d722bef9ff5f0ee3962d6506630a5df7a7429db36a91375.gif
The problem for it is, it’s not considered the clear frontrunner to win any of those.
Bearing in mind that BlacKkKlansman was never going to pick up at Art Directors… it’s shown everywhere else, too. I think Black Panther is also showing up almost everywhere…
A Star is Born, however may end being the most nominated film of the night, if lucky…
Picture
Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Song
Cinematography
Film Editing
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
11 noms
Bohemian Rhapsody can get up to 8
Picture
Actor
Cinematography
Film Editing
Costume
Production Design
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
BlacKkKlansman can 10
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Editing
Costume
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
The Favourite 11
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actress x 2
Original Screenplay
Score
Cinematography
Costume
Production Design
Film Editing
Green Book, 10
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Score
Cinematography
Film Editing
Costume
Production Design
Vice up to 11
Picture
Director
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor x 2 (Carrell and Rockwell)
Original Screenplay
Score
Cinematography
Film Editing
Make up
Black Panther up to 12
Picture
Adapted Screenplay (WGA put it back in the game)
Score
Song
Cinematography
Film Editing
Production Design
Costume
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Make Up
VFX
… and those are the films that seem to be competing with bigger chances. Still a wide open race
Blackkklansman is missing Art directors and ASC so far.
Black Panther is missing ACE and ASC so far.
At least BR missed WGA & ASC. The race is not as crazy as HFPA made out
ASC: Roma, A Star is Born, The Favourite, First Man and Cold War. Darn, I had a hunch about Cold War but didn’t go with it. Been a very good day for A Star is Born after a bad night — still perfect in all the guilds. First Man being helped by guilds, and Roma many places too. And I love The Favourite’s cinematography — I think these are great choices!
To think First Man is the bigger tech player than Panther. But I don’t think that means First Man will land a Best Picture nomination or that Panther will miss after all, since the actors seem to be pushing it in.
Yeah… at least First Man seems to be poised to get Editing, Cinematography, Score, the two sounds and Visual Effects. Could easily score Foy and Production Design also at play.
Hmm, I want to bet against it for editing since the domestic scenes are so slow. One of Favourite or BlacKkK could make it in (and Favourite should). ASIB, Bo, Vice, and Roma seem strong.
Yep — Favourite has really good editing.
I could even see Chazelle showing up in Director over someone like Farrelly (or even a Coogler or Lee snub).
I always thought Farrelly was the weak link too and doubted him getting in, but not after his grandstanding speech last night. I swear I’ve never seen a Globes with so many Oscar auditions.
The fact that Chazelle will miss a nomination to Peter Farrelly… I have to say as I do every year… Americans in this industry are very bad at rewarding the best Americans.
Thanks!!!
First Man had a pretty good day. The Favourite continues to be so solid too. Great nominations overall.
I still think ASIB is being perceived as weak. While I get that the Globes are a lousy BP precursor, the fact that the HFPA starfuckers snubbed Gaga and Cooper in acting is a bad omen.
Close’s speech last night is going to sway a LOT of the older voters
I think Glenn Close had a better night than ASIB had a bad night — meaning, I think Close had a huge night of improving her odds; so, yes, I think it was a bad night for Gaga. (Though, I’m not sure Gaga is out of it yet. Curious about SAG and Critics Choice). But I think Close has to be the favorite now. Whereas, while I think Close got a huge bump, I think ASIB’s best picture chances took a hit, but not a huge one. I think it’s very much in the running (though, again, I think its Actress chances took a big hit).
Just curious – does anyone think Malek and Bale could both still get a lot of votes/stay competitive ’til the end? “IF” ASIB stays strong from guild awards and still wins Best Picture (with Roma for Director), I still wonder if Bradley Cooper could upset a la Adrian Brody and win in actor if Malek and Bale both stay competitive. The Academy does seem to still like Cooper more than other bodies.
Cooper can win Actor if Singer decides to sabotage his own film. That Instagram post of his kind of tipped off that he really isn’t cool with being ghosted.
As soon as I saw Singer’s Instagram post, all I thought was, “Well, he just caused more harm to his own film than internet backlash ever could.”
It was REALLY pissy
Indeed it was. Even the photo included made it extra pissy. I thought a normal/decent person would get it and at least stay out of the limelight and be happy for their film…then I thought, well, then again, a normal/decent person wouldn’t be in that situation in the first place. After all, he’s a guy with decades of bad reputation and accusations. So, I wasn’t surprised to see the pissy post from him.
It was interesting to see the still was the recreation of the at the time controversial video of “I want to break free”. Freddy in drag bothered people when that video came out, wonder if Singer was making a comment about how sanitized the final product was?
And I thought it was pissy of producer Graham King and Rami Malek not to make any acknowledgment of Bryan Singer, onstage or backstage, during their orgy of self-congratulations. Like it or not, Singer is the director of record, and directed ”Bohemian Rhapsody” except for the last couple of weeks before it wrapped. If ”Bohemian Rhapsody” had bombed, surely everyone would’ve pinned the blame on Singer. Like the saying goes: ”Success has a thousand mothers; failure is an orphan.” So if ”Bohemian Rhapsody” is winning awards and reaping nominations, Singer is, to some degree, just as deserving of some credit for what he called his ”passion project.”
The movie didn’t direct itself, and King hired Singer to shepherd it. And whatever tensions lie between Malek and Singer, who’s to say they didn’t contribute to Malek’s portrayal and the final product? The ”Bohemian” team should call some kind of truce among themselves because this divided front isn’t helpful or earning any good will.
Cold War’s nod is SO deserved! I’d give it the win…
Just watched this last week and was in complete awe of such a masterpiece of filmmaking. The Bafta love is so deserving! I would love to see it turn up in the 5th Director and Screenplay noms at Oscars, but then again, I want The Rider to get a best picture nomination and ATLEAST a Screenplay nom! I wish…
“The Bafta love is so deserving!”
Absolutely!
“I would love to see it turn up in the 5th Director and Screenplay noms at Oscars”
As would I. (I haven’t seen The Rider.)
You HAVE to see The Rider!!!
It would appear so… I guess I’ll have to squeeze this one in as well. I’m SO far behind this year! 🙂
I’d say I’m about 3/4 of the way through.. Still a few to see including a few of the foreign films that are hard to see here. I just missed Shoplifters. I’m not reading as much of the blogs this year but still keeping in touch when I can. At this stage , for me, I wouldn’t be suprised (and wouldn’t mind) Bohemian Rap winning Best Picture. I will see Green Book in next few days and make up my mind with that one. And thn there could always be the ASIB come through – but appears to be fading…
“but appears to be fading”
So did Spotlight, at this stage. 🙂 So did Moonlight, later on in the season. And so on…
“So did Spotlight, at this stage. 🙂 So did Moonlight, later on in the season. And so on…” T
his is true. I still won’t count out ASIB and it’s in my top 10 this season too. It’s a crazy season where it could all go any which way… I’m watching Green Book tonight so will let you know. Have you seen it?
I liked Green Book a lot. It’s not some major cinematic achievement, of course, on any level, really, but overall it’s a really nice movie, one of my favorites this year so far.
I agree. I really liked this too. Particuarly Ali’s performance and the story. Again, for me, its an example of how his role could really be classified in the best actor category though I guess it’s technically a supporting role. Good film. Not great.
Best Picture ?
No.
Might get screenplay though. And will get supporting actor. He deserves it too.
I wouldn’t give it the screenplay win (in fact, I’m not sure I’d give it any win, yet it’s definitely better than the sum of its parts, which is probably why I liked it so much), but the nomination is O.K. 🙂 – and Ali is definitely co-lead, but these things happen all the time these days, like someone else said here recently…
Beale Street missed ASC. Cold War is in!
Roma
A Star is Born
The Favourite
First Man
Cold War
That’s the Oscars lineup also.
Probably. Though, I think Rachel Morrison may make it in for Black Panther. But not sure who she’d bump (other than maybe ASIB?)
Omg! What is going on with Beale? Unprecedented for two foreign films to be nominated? Black Panther missed too, proving it’s not the tech force to be reckoned with and more a CGI player than artful cinematography.
Crap. They went hard for two Black and White foreign flicks.
That’s a sign that hollywood needs to step up their game lol
Beale clearly didn’t land with the guilds
It’s literally like Eighth Grade, a WGA nod and nothing else.
A screenplay nod for such a little film is a hell of an accomplishment though
No, of course, but it’s a bigger deal for all the misses for a heavily predicted film like Beale Street with more noticeable production credits and experienced actors.
I can’t say that ”If Beale Street Could Talk” landed with me, either. It was beautifully shot, but so slow and self-consciously artsy. And I was more impressed with Aunjanue Ellis’ cameo as Fonny’s holy-roller mom than I was with Regina King’s performance.
I never understood the assumption that BP would get in for cinematography.. It was nothing special to me. And that’s often one of my favorite below the line categories… 2/3 of the movie had crappy green screen backgrounds by the look of it.
ASC noms announcing live in one minute on the ASC Facebook page!
So Cuarón based on the guilds and precursors seems poised to get FIVE individual Oscar nominations. Netflix/foreign film aside that’s just staggering.
Ha – I was thinking about that last night. I actually do wonder if that may complicate things for him, as people look at their ballot and go, “I can’t vote for him ‘everywhere'” — it might split up his own votes (especially in a place like cinematography, since I think he’s stronger in director — but if it were a different DP, I think it’d be favored in both. Of course, it could still easily win both).
The good thing for him is that his name will not be on the ballot paper for most categories. They only list the film in most categories, not the individuals.
This is a very good point. Sometimes the tech branches seem to be against the Soderbergh-style directors in cinematography/editing (sometimes even directors who write), so I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses somewhere in the nominations.
Except he’s won Editing before and was nominated in a previous year. He’s kind of in a different realm
He isn’t winning script, so I think he’ll have to settle for Director/Editing/Cinematography
I’d say he’s most likely to win Director, then Cinematography then Editing. But, I really have no clue on editing this year. I think it could be Roma, A Star is Born, Vice…heck even Black Panther (even though it missed ACE – especially if they want to reward it somewhere) or even Bohemian Rhapsody. I think that’ll be wide open/unpredictable ’til they read that ballot.
I would watch out for Rachel Morrison in Cinematography…that’d be another place they may give their love to BP, especially with such a win being history-making. (First Man, The Favourite could also be in the running).
I think Editing is Roma’s by default, except if another strong contender emerges that wins several tech awards and is in play for BP. I can’t see that right now, but it could happen.
It would be unprecedented for a film to win BP without a screenplay or directing nomination. You don’t really think Singer gets in at DGA?
I really don’t think Singer gets in, nor is the film winning BP.
The Favourite will easily get in and then the last spot will be between Eighth Grade, A Quiet Place, and First Reformed. I’ve been predicting FR for a while now, but it seems to be the movie this year that critics embrace and the industry either doesn’t connect with it since it’s so bleak or they simply haven’t seen it. So I’ll probably go with Eighth Grade even though I’m going to be stubborn and predict Hawke until the end.
I’m glad to see Bohemian Rhapsody miss here after it’s recent surge. I don’t hate the film and think Rami is really good in it, but the script is it’s weakest link imo. It’s just too generic and some of the dialogue just feels so forced and on-the-nose that I couldn’t always take it seriously.
For Adapted Screenplay, this will probably be the lineup. The WGA has had a tendency to nominate more superhero films and genre pictures than the Academy because there are usually open slots when films are ineligible. That said, Black Panther is close to being an across-the-board contender so I think it still makes it unless Leave No Trace squeaks in with a sole screenplay nom.
And I know this is more of a film site than a gaming site, but this is a great, inspired list of nominated games encompassing different game genres and settings. God of War and Spider-Man are, for the most part, linear stories and the other three games allow for more player choice in the way the stories unfold and/or how the characters you play develop over the course of the game. Red Dead Redemption 2 is the glaring omission here. I love the game, but some of the missions became a little repetitive over time. I think God of War is the probable winner and it would be well deserved. That game had tighter pacing and reinvented the main character from an angry testosterone fueled anti-hero to a more reserved father figure living with the demons of his past. Some really fun nominees here.
What are your thoughts on Death of Stalin?
Ooh actually I forgot Death of Stalin was ineligible here. I could see that getting in ala In The Loop, especially since it got the BAFTA nom last year and just won NSFC.
Part of me wants to stick with Black Panther for now since it has the momentum in Picture and since Logan proved last year that superhero films can make it in. But at the same time, last year also had a very limited amount of films in contention for Adapted. If it doesn’t get in, DoS is probably in the #6 slot over Leave No Trace. This will probably be a nomination morning coin flip for me.
ASC is coming up next.
Roma
First Man
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
The Favourite
Alt: Mission Impossible or A Star Is Born
I’m getting totally ready for Bohemian Rhapsody to show up (even though it by no means deserves to) maybe instead of Beale Street because it keeps doing so badly!
“Keeps”? It just got an important WGA nod.
After missing pga, sag, adg (which has 15 nominees), ace. That’s 1/5. Yes it keeps missing. I’m not saying this with any agenda by the way, I haven’t seen it but I suspect I’ll like it as I love moonlight and medicine for melancholy. Though my comment doesn’t mean I’m predicting BR instead of Beale Street here, just that I’m preparing myself for the possibility that it may happen.
It was never really in contention for ADG and ACE, so it’s 1/3. Not sure what’s your expectation of it to be, but I never thought it could win BP this year anyway, nominated yes. It probably will miss DGA, but since it was included in WGA, it’s still contending to be in the BP lineup.
I mean my post was just saying I’m worried BR will get in at ASC and considering how badly Beale Street has been doing it could be the one that drops if this happens (btw this is a worry/ possibility not a prediction).
I disagree though, it should’ve been in for editing, which often plays out like a best picture category and with so many slots adg probably should’ve been expected considering things like ASIB got in which has very little actual set (mostly playing on stages etc). I haven’t been considering it a threat for BP for ages but I’m getting worried it won’t be nominated for bp at all. But you’re right it’s still contending to be there. Though that want what I was talking about here, this was originally about ASC.
Plenty of movies get nominated for BP w/o ACE, especially since the expansion.
I expect it getting ASC nod. If it fails there, then yeah we should worry.
So we worry?
Yes. Your premonition came true.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not happy about being right, in fact sight unseen Beale Street looks like something that absolutely should be awarded but it just feels like there’s no passion for it so it’s very likely missing bp at Oscars.
It’s too tedious and artsy, not raw and powerful like his previous film. It doesn’t seem to do well with the guilds. I want it to make the BP slot, simply to help King’s case.
I’m thinking:
Black Panther
First Man
Roma
The Favourite
A Star is Born
(Alt: If Beale Street Could Talk)
P.S. My NGNG on this: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. ASC likes Bruno Delbonnel, so always in the running.
It deserves it more than most eventual nominees will.
I’m thinking Roma, Beale, Favourite, ASIB, and…First Man over Black Panther? Gosh, I don’t know, but the first three seem safe for Oscar noms and the next 3 are more traditionally “cinematic” films, with Mudbound’s Rachel Morrison looking to repeat history a year later.
Well once and for all depite yesterday Bohemian Rhapsody can’t win best picture as it just doesn’t happen if you don’t have a wga nom (if you are eligible). I know you can argue that it only got 2 noms at globes and won but globes are much less likely to follow any rules than Oscars are
No Bohemian or First Reformed. No Crazy Rich Asians, Widows or First Man.
No huuuge surprises for what was nommed, but always more interesting to see the misses. In light of recent love for it, surprised no Bohemian. And I’d have thought that CRA got in in Adapted.
I think even the people who adore BoRap can admit that the screenplay isn’t exactly its strongest element.
It certainly had some “creative” story choices regarding Mercury’s actual life
The Original category will swap out A Quiet Place for The Favourite and MAYBE Eighth Grade for something else.
The Adapted category will probably be these five.
I think Bohemian and A Quiet Place is on the bubble (5th/6th). I no longer have trust in Shrader. And I think Eighth Grade will be in. But who knows?
Damn shame.
9/10 of the feature films nominated here include the director. I mean, really?
Nobody saw First Reformed, this is basically my conclusion. Hawke he’ll be one of the most dominant critics slayer to miss the nomination.
I wonder if 1st Reformed has any sorts of campaign, screeners?
Same thing I wondered about If Beale Street Could Talk but DeDe Gardener and the crew are awards hounds.
I still think there’s an outside chance it could happen. That fifth spot still seems up for grabs, to me. But talk earlier in the year about a possible Hawke WIN seems like a distant memory in the wake of its nigh impossibility.
A win would be very unlikely. His only help to gain momentum would be an a Bafta win but that’s high mountain to climb.
It’s also a difficult film to “take”. Plenty of AMPAS are basic.
Hence why BR keeps foing so well (even if it missed here)
I could almost see it’s one nomination being Paul Schraeder for director given how that branch operates sometimes.
I want to say its unbelievable First Reformed was left off this list, but considering Schrader has been looked over for awards almost his whole career this isnt a shock. Disappointing
I also love how the citation for A Star Is Born is like a Russian nesting doll of “based upon”s. Shows how timeless that story apparently continues to be.
Also, despite not showing up here, or hardly anywhere else really, I’m still not convinced First Reformed is entirely dead. Or at the very least, that Ethan Hawke isn’t. It just seems like the sort of movie that guilds and other precursors miss, but which Oscar doesn’t. Think Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. Or Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals.
Then again, maybe the Academy just likes Michael Shannon.
But also like Marion’s second nomination etc there’s precedent for a well liked prior nominee who’s an actor’s actor getting nominated for the most critically acclaimed performance of the field. I don’t see how Denzel Jr. gets nominated for his performance.
Does the WGA citation for ”A Star Is Born” set the record for the most names included? … Glad to see that the terrific ”Can You Ever Forgive Me?” made the cut. But I also wish ”Crazy Rich Asians” (by Peter Chiarelli, Adele Lim) was there, too!
Kind of sad that it took that many people to write a screenplay to a movie that was made three times before.
This could be another sign for Emily Blunt and her first nominee that will happen but not for Mary Poppins.
I think she has a very good chance of getting in for A Quiet Place. It’s clear the industry (guilds) clearly remember/like the film.
It’s an unusual pick but would also be a good way of honoring the film if the script isn’t nominated over Eighth Grade/Vice/First Reformed. It’s a more inspired choice than relative newbie Claire Foy in a film that isn’t inspiring passion above-the-line. Maybe BAFTA will help clear things up, more by whom it snubs than whom it nominates.
I keep remembering when Idris Elba won the SAG for Supporting for Beasts of No Nation (even though he wasn’t in the Oscar conversation). So, with the main player out (Regina King) at SAG, I suppose anything is possible – especially as Blunt is a double nominee.
It would be a very similar scenario actually if Emily Blunt (and hubby) are Oscar-snubbed. Amy Adams need not win two SAGs after her Globes shutout – heck, she could lose the TV SAG to Arquette too. All of this would point to a relatively unprecedented Oscar comeback for Regina.
Breaking news: BR finally missing a guild, Vice despite mixed reviews is doing pretty well, now i think it’s locked of BP
First Reformed is getting stiffed hard. Hopefully either Hawke or Schrader gets in on Oscar night however I thought they’d be racking up once the season got started.
They would’ve fared a lot better with guild representation
But do they need guild rep? On the other hand, are the Krasinskis getting shut out entirely? Eighth Grade is a small, simple film but again beloved by its fans. Can Vice still miss?
Who really knows but the more recognition the better I would think.
Holy crap, they snubbed Red Dead Redemption 2!
“DAMMIT, WGA, HAVE A LITTLE FAITH.”
“I told you, Arthur, I have a plan! We just need ONE MORE nomination!”
Hoping the ineligible Leave No Trace shows up at Oscar. And would really like A Quiet Place to get some major recognition – sound yes but pic or screenplay would be amazing.
I think LNT or Death of Stalin takes the Panther slot. Widows and First Man are dead. Big miss for Asians too really.
Makes sense Krasinski could get nominated. Favourite is definitely coming back, but I assume First Reformed too—we could have a Foxcatcher situation here, but I still think it gets actor and writing noms on merit.
I hope so.
Where is Bohemian Rhapsody? Haha
Um, where is First Reformed?
Really, really happy for Eighth Grade and Can You Ever Forgive Me?
So no WGA nomination for Bohemian Rhapsody. Most likely misses Oscar nomination for Original Screenplay as well.
Last film to win Best Picture without a nomination for screenplay at EITHER Oscars or WGA was Hamlet (1949).
Titanic, 1997 (&surely there must be some others?)
Titanic got a WGA nod.
As did Sound of Music for WGA as well. Greatest Show on Earth won Best Story at the Oscars (these are just for claritication)
Well BoRhap isn’t going to win BP. Not on a preferential ballot anyway regardless of other key stats against it like no BFCA nom.
Eighth Grade/A Quiet Place takes The Favourite’s spot due to it being Ineligible. Which one gets the edge and gets in. We don’t know.
Adapted looks spot on.
First Reformed!
No love it seems despite what I wish would happen. I still believe it’s getting in Original. Fingers crossed.
And actor! Denzel Jr does nothing and is a lazy precursor nomination! (Same for Driver tbh.)
Wait friend. They were both wonderful.
Washington was fine and promising, but I don’t think the role had enough meat or gravitas to deserve a nomination. I think it’s a typical precursor barrage for a film that’s well liked if not loved across the board. I also think people like him, Farrelly, Cooper as a director, Gaga as an actor, ASIB as an adapted screenplay, Poppins in general—don’t overestimate any of these. Not saying all of them will miss, but it’s typical of the Academy to poo-poo unconventional choices regardless of their buzz or even merits. Idk if they will respect the son of Denzel or on the other hand if that will win him more votes.
Yeesh do you only think he’s getting this attention because he is Denzel’s son. His name is John David Washington and he was impressive in a low key performance, understated performance.
There’s been a few performance’s like John David Washington’s. Dafoe, Ali, Rylance just to bring up two in the past few years to win or get nominated with not much meat to their characters or performances.
I think it both helps him with these precursors and even hurts him (or works both ways) when the insular Academy sits down to vote. I’m sure it helped him land the role in the first place. Not to say he wasn’t good, but I simply don’t think he’s nomination-worthy or worth singling out. Dafoe was similar, but at least he was sweeping critics’ awards and only in supporting. He, Rylance, and especially Ali are more much impacting in those roles. But again I personally think it’s different when you’re that passive as a lead.
Beale is in adapted and that category is weaker despite what Sasha says, so it seems safe.
I’m still hoping The Death of Stalin gets in over Black Panther for adapted. Or Leave No Trace.
I still haven’t watched Death of Stalin. I’ve heard nothing but good things.
Pretty standard stuff. Good news for Black Panther, but missing the ACE earlier today is still problematic. Probably The Favourite bumps out A Quiet Place at the Oscars.
Spotlight was snubbed for ACE but got in for Oscar nomination.
Spotlight ain’t the flashiest
Any news on the DGA’s television nominees which are supposed to come out today? Know the movie ones are released tomorrow.