Oh boy, here we go. Welcome to the single most unpredictable Oscars I’ve witnessed in 20 years. Here it is at last. It will be a relief on Tuesday when all is said and done, I figure. No more wondering, no more arguing. No more wishing. No more dreaming. No more hoping. It will be done and dusted. History made. Or not.
Even though we think about the expanded ballot as being 10 potential Best Picture nominations, in reality it is usually more like nine. There have been years where there were only eight. It is theoretically possible that there could be, for the first time, less than even eight — i.e., there could be seven or even six or even five. It all depends on how many films come in with enough number one votes in the first round of voting to earn their place.
By our count, that’s around 3% — so around 250 number one votes. And what that means is that at least 250 people said this is the best film of the year. I do believe that the Academy has always used the preferential system to find nominees in most of their categories; it’s just that the percentages, or numbers, shift if we’re talking five versus more than five. You can easily see which films would have made the cut in years where there were only five nominations by how some films performed in other races, like the guilds, for instance. Movies that were likely right on the line would include Almost Famous, Adaptation, and Into the Wild.
But with the expanded ballot (post-2010), members are still given only five nomination slots for Best Picture, but now they keep the films that were right on the line, meaning they had at least 5% of the vote after three rounds. The best way to predict Best Picture is to think about which five you think are keepers. For that, most of the time it’s wise to rely on the DGA. So our first Best Picture five would be:
Roma
Green Book
A Star Is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
That’s our likely five if there were five nominees, give or take one title. Passion rules when it comes to nominations, and can make all the difference. For instance, remember The Dark Knight? It had a lot of love heading in, or so it seemed, but the Weinstein-backed The Reader ended up with that fifth slot. Why? Because people LOVED it. Love is everything and it helps movies get in for a nomination. Picking the winner using this system doesn’t always reward passion.
So how do we then figure out what the next ones will be? In all likelihood there will be nine. So let’s stick with that for now. We know that the Globes often are a big factor in how films are chosen. So let’s take the surprise drama winner and add it to our list for six nominees.
Bohemian Rhapsody
Next, we can probably think about which films the actors really liked. Do all five SAG ensemble movies get in for Best Picture usually? Most of the time four out of five have in the era of the expanded ballot. Let’s go with that and add our next nominee, which also has a WGA nod:
Black Panther
Then we have two more slots if we’re going with nine. What is a safe bet awards juggernaut that has a strong leading actress contender? This one, pushed by a pretty powerful studio:
The Favourite
That gives us one more slot if we’re going to pick nine. My heart wants it to be First Man but my head tells me First Man can’t get to 250 voters putting it at number one — after all, it didn’t get into the PGA. Neither did Beale Street, but Beale Street has passion behind it. So does Eighth Grade, come to that. Even Mary Poppins Returns has passion. So the ninth slot is tricky and difficult.
However, because I aim to be a tragic figure devoted to lost causes, I will choose for my final slot First Man, because DAMN THE TORPEDOES I’m going down with the ship. My alternate would be Beale Street, which probably has the better shot here.
Best Picture
Roma
Green Book
A Star is Born
BlacKKKlansman
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Best Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKKKlansman
Right on the edge:
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Viola Davis, Widows
Right on the edge:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
On the edge:
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
On the edge:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Right on the edge:
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Original Screenplay
Green Book — Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma — Alfonso Cuaron
The Favourite — Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Eighth Grade — Bo Burnham
Vice — Adam McKay
Here’s hoping:
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk — Barry Jenkins
BlacKkKlansman — Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
A Star Is Born —Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Can You Ever Forgive Me — Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
Black Panther — Ryan Coogler
Cinematography
Roma
A Star Is Born
First Man
The Favourite
Cold War
Editing
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
BlackKklansman
Production Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Roma
First Man
Sound Mixing
A Star Is Born
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
A Quiet Place
Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing
First Man
Ready Player One
Roma
A Star Is Born
A Quiet Place
Costume Design
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Avengers: Infinity War
Welcome to Marwen
Original Score
First Man
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Isle of Dogs
If Beale Street Could Talk
Original Song
Shallow
I’ll Fight from RBG
Girl in the Movies
Trip a Little Light Fantastic
Where Lost Things Go
Makeup and Hair
Black Panther
Vice
Mary Queen of Scots
Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
Documentary Feature
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
RBG
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Foreign Language Feature
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Burning (South Korea)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Live Action Short
Mother
Skin
Wale
Caroline
Icare
Documentary Short
Period. End of Sentence.
Lifeboat
My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes
Women of the Gulag
Black Sheep
Animated Short
Late Afternoon
Age of Sail
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Weekends
The truth is that none of us knows how this will go, but you could do worse than looking at Kris Tapley’s predictions over at Variety. He’s pretty good at it.
Be sure to enter our contest, and best of luck, Oscarwatchers!
*Please note – I may change one or two of these before Tuesday morning.*
